Trade Partner: Los Angeles Kings

The Edmonton Oilers and Los Angeles Kings made a big trade last summer and I think there’s a chance to do business at the deadline.

The Kings are by no means out of the race and this would be a trade that would not involve impending free agents.

This is a trade for an actual left winger for the 1line. The completion of the “let’s get Hemsky a scorer on LW” search that began the day Ryan Smyth was traded and has been painful and expensive to this point.

It’ll cost a lot, because he’s durable, has size and can score goals. He’s good on the powerplay. He’s Alexander Frolov.

Dean Lombardi built the San Jose Sharks from the ground up during his time there. He was in on the drafting of Patrick Marleau, Brad Stuart, Scott Hannan, Evgeny Nabokov and Vesa Toskala among many others–I believe Ryan Clowe was a Lombardi-era draft–and he also brought in some quality veterans like Owen Nolan, Teemu Selanne, Mike Ricci and Vincent Damphousse. The Sharks were quality under Lombardi.

Now in Los Angeles (since June 2006) and the Kings are a team on the rise. The sheer number of quality players under 25 is astounding:

  • 19: Drew Doughty
  • 20: Wayne Simmonds, Oscar Moller
  • 21: Anze Kopitar
  • 22: Jack Johnson
  • 23: Kyle Quincey, Jonathan Quick
  • 24: Dustin Brown, Patrick O’Sullivan

That’s a very strong list. This is a quality team that is the youngest in the entire league. Why then would they trade Frolov?

  1. He’s a year from free agency (summer 2010) and the Kings have some of these young men coming along who are going to require big paydays soon (Kopitar just got a huge payday, with Johnson an RFA in the summer).
  2. I’ve not read much from Lombardi about Frolov being at the center of the future Kings and he chews up a lot of icetime for the results.
  3. He is not at this point the Kings best forward (Kopitar, Brown and maybe O’Sullivan) and the number on the birth certificate tells us that is unlikely to change in the future. He’ll be making 4M in 09-10, how much are you going to spend on your 4th best forward in the cap world?

I don’t think they can get him without giving up something significant but it’s also true there is very little out there at the deadline that can help this Oilers team short term. Frolov is an established NHL scorer (105 goals since the lockout, including a 35-goal season) and he may be available.

The cost? Young, cheap and very good.

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126 Responses to "Trade Partner: Los Angeles Kings"

  1. striatic says:

    are you suggesting trading a kid for Frolov?

    which kid?

  2. Lowetide says:

    striatic: Well it would have to be an NHL player who can help them now and be an inexpensive part of the team next season.

    So, looking at the Oilers roster we can make the following list:

    *Gagner $1.625m cap hit, RFA in 2010
    *Grebeshkov $1.5M this year, RFA in summer
    *Cogliano $1.13M cap hit, RFA in 2010
    *Smid $952 this year, RFA in summer

    Some of them might be straight up, some might require a first round pick etc. Some I wouldn’t trade and some I would, but that’s the list.

  3. Schitzo says:

    I’d move Gagner in a heartbeat.

    Frolov is only a year older than Hemsky, we’re weak on the left side, and his payday in 2010 likely isn’t a whole lot higher than what Gagner would want.

    We need to start clearing up the logjam of tiny rookie forwards, and this would be one way to do it.

  4. Schitzo says:

    Oh, and TSN just updated on Moreau. He’s back at home.

    While the real extent of the injury is not yet known, surgery was not required on Saturday night. Doctors will continue to monitor the eye through the week to see if that changes.

  5. PunjabiOil says:

    Obviously Frolov would be great – and I would move Cogliano+ to get him – but he must be extended before a deal takes place.

    Which is why it won’t happen.

    On another note, apparently Moreau is back home from the hospital and did not require surgery. Good news on that front, even if he’s gone for the year.

  6. Schitzo says:

    but he must be extended before a deal takes place.

    Which is why it won’t happen.

    Are you suggesting that Frolov would have no interest in signing an extension, or just pointing out that it’s impossible under the CBA until July 1st?

  7. PunjabiOil says:


    Are you suggesting that Frolov would have no interest in signing an extension, or just pointing out that it’s impossible under the CBA until July 1st?

    Frolov is eligible to sign an extension before July 1.

    The question is, why would he forgo his opportunity to become a UFA to sign with the Oilers?

    Unless, of course, the Oilers significantly overpay.

  8. Scott says:

    They mentioned on CBC one night that Lombardi loves Cogliano. He was stuck on Cogs when we went after Cammalleri at the draft. Word has it the deal for Lubo almost died because Lombardi really wanted Cogliano and Lowe wouldn’t give him up.

    What would people say to Cogliano for Frolov? Add a pick (not a first) at your discretion.

    I’m torn, but Cogliano not being able to play wing really limits our options going forward so I do it. Frolov has size, a shot, and is a monster along the boards. He is a natural LW that fits with our budding superstar.

  9. Schitzo says:

    Frolov is eligible to sign an extension before July 1.

    He has another year after this one, he won’t be a UFA for 16 more months.

  10. striatic says:

    what does LA need?

    i’m not sure they need a Gagner or Cogliano. LA has a lot of talented young forwards already, which is why they’d feel safe moving Frolov in the first place.

    a defenseman would be more useful to them, i’d imagine. working from LT’s list, Smid and a pick would work or possibly Grebeshkov straight up.

    I seem to recall Smid in a cutesy locker room interview saying he liked LA and would be there with friends over the all star break. i’m not sure “liking the city” makes for a great LA player. too many distractions.

  11. Coach pb9617 says:

    Modano leaves the ice with an injury, falling on Staal’s skate after a hit.

  12. Coach pb9617 says:

    What would people say to Cogliano for Frolov? Add a pick (not a first) at your discretion.

    Done and done.

    Don’t even give yourself a chance to talk yourself out of it.

  13. PunjabiOil says:

    Whoops. I had mistakedly thought Frolov was set to become a UFA.

    Absolutely I trade Cogliano for Frolov. Cogliano is a tweener – not really a scoring forward, nor does it look like he’ll become a 3rd line shut-down center. He’s also under-sized and this team has a wealth of those types. Other players on the bubble should be Nilsson, Schremp, and Brule (who is having a very disappointing season in Springfield with only 21 points in 32 games – this as a 22 year old).

    Frolov is a stud. He’s only 26, and while his numbers have gone down this year, I believe he’s a legitimate 1st liner.

  14. Traktor says:

    We have nothing to offer.

    You’re not going to send a package of youth to a team that already boasts one of the best crop of young players in the league for an established 1st line player. Not happening.

    I’d be shocked if Frolov gets traded. Makes zero sense.

  15. Hemsky is a gangsta says:

    Is Frolov the new Handzus? I remember between 03/04 and 05/06 everyone wanted Handzus and his name was brought up regularly on the internet despite no mention of him from the mainstream media. Is there any indication the Kings would even considering moving him?

  16. Lowetide says:

    http://www.insidesocal.com/kings/2009/02/lombardi-is-frolov-a-core-play.html

    Not exactly “we’re going to deal him” but it’s an interesting read.

  17. Traktor says:

    Good read.

    We still have nothing to offer though.

  18. Scott says:

    Traktor:

    If LA isn’t interested in youth and prospects, then why did they demand either a 1st round pick or good young player for Cammalleri? Edmonton wanted to offer a young veteran (I’m guessing Torres+, maybe), but Lombardi wanted futures only. And to further it, why trade a very good veteran defenceman for two players 25 and 26 years old.

    We could offer them something interesting, I don’t doubt it at all.

  19. Black Dog says:

    If the Oilers have anything LA would be interested in you have to look at it but the first question is could you sign him? If you can’t sign him then you cannot give up young cheap players for what might be a year of a guy.

    Like what they did with Pitkanen for example.

    I can’t see LA moving him myself and I’m with Traktor – what do the Oilers have to offer for a first line guy? Quality youth but LA does not need quality youth. If the Oilers had a quality veteran Dman then maybe LA goes for it but I don’t see it.

  20. Scott says:

    If we did get Frolov (or equivalent LW), any chance we could get Pahlsson (UFA) and a pick for Penner (I’d hope for a first, but doubt it would be)?

  21. Jfry says:

    wow…what i wouldn’t give to have included cogs in the deal for lubi and to still have stoll.

  22. Scott says:

    BDHS:

    Yeah, the signing part is even more important than in Pitkanen’s situation because he is UFA, not RFA.

    But maybe Lubo could lend some inside information on Frolov’s personality and whether he would fit in. If he fits in and gets a taste of playoffs, chances are good he’d sign.

  23. Black Dog says:

    Good points Scott – I think LA is trying to build a cluster of guys – so the veterans are 25-26, the core is the group LT mentioned and then they have a group behind them.

    So maybe picks or prospects in junior get a deal done in that case? If that is what Lombardi is doing.

    That is true about Cammalleri. Forgot about that.

    Of course he was one year out from UFA too, same as Frolov.

  24. Scott says:

    The comments on that article are pretty interesting. I had no idea he was benched this year, I thought he was in better standing with the coaching staff. Those Kings fans arguing about Alex Frolov sound like Oiler fans arguing about Dustin Penner…

  25. Black Dog says:

    One thing that might point to LA moving Frolov.

    Every team only has so much cash to spend. As we saw with the Pens you might have a pile of young talent but you can’t hold onto all of it.

    If LA looks at Frolov and figures he’s not ‘part of the core’ then better to move him while he has more value. You have to look at your kids and decide which ones to keep and which ones to pay.

    You can’t keep them all.

  26. Traktor says:

    Scott:

    If we traded Cole it would make sense to ask for picks and prospects back.

    That doesn’t mean the same applies for all our players.

    Obviously every personnel decision is weighed differently.

    I much sooner see LA moving Frolov with Hickey or another young prospect for a Heatley type.

    If they were looking for a young center they could probably land Jordan Staal straight up. Who takes Gagner over Staal?

  27. HBomb says:

    I’ve said that if at the deadline, the Oilers moved their first rounder for a rental, I’d be upset.

    Here, with Frolov, we have a situation where a guy is potentially a long-term fix at 1LW. So the first rounder could be in play.

    But Cogliano for Frolov, straight across? That’s an absolute no-brainer from an Oiler perspective if the Kings suggested such a swap. You HAVE to do that deal.

  28. Black Dog says:

    Aren’t Kopitar and O’Sullivan centres? Plus Stoll.

    Am I wrong?

  29. Traktor says:

    “Aren’t Kopitar and O’Sullivan centres? Plus Stoll.”

    Don’t forget Zeus.

  30. Jon says:

    I keep hoping that Tamblowe makes a move for Higgens. He can play LW, is on the outs in MTL for “partying” and having a subpar season, he is a mactavish player, and has three 20 goal seasons out of 4.

    Higgens Horcoff Hemsky
    Penner Cogs Gagner

    What would it cost???

  31. Fake Craig McTavish says:

    Black Dog said…
    Aren’t Kopitar and O’Sullivan centres? Plus Stoll.

    Am I wrong?

    Nope,,,you’re right.

    They also have Handzus, Armstrong and Moller.

  32. HBomb says:

    Guys, I’m pretty sure that O’Sullivan has seen significant time on the wing (with Kopitar at centre and either Brown or Frolov) on the other wing.

    Doesn’t surprise me, because he’s one of those small-ish skill guys that might be better off not playing center at the NHL level anyways.

  33. Traktor says:

    Has anyone watched Matt Gilroy play this year?

    I read a scouting report the other day that said the team that signs him will be be getting the equivalent to a lottery pick in the draft.

  34. Fake Craig McTavish says:

    Yes he does HBomb.

  35. Traktor says:

    “Guys, I’m pretty sure that O’Sullivan has seen significant time on the wing (with Kopitar at centre and either Brown or Frolov) on the other wing.”

    He’s a center that’s playing wing – a byproduct of having too many skilled centers. I’m not sure how moving your best LW for more skilled centers makes sense.

  36. Lowetide says:

    So let me get this straight: we can agree Cogliano isn’t much at center but we’re trying to shoe-horn him onto C with LAK?

    Am I missing something here?

  37. Black Dog says:

    Yeah but LT if he’s going to play wing there we may as well have him play wing here.

  38. cartooncolin says:

    Just watching Kings/Hawks on WGN. They were talking about youthful depth coming on the LA back end.

    Oh and Frolov hit the post and had a beauty backcheck/steal in the same shift ….

  39. Traktor says:

    I’m not sure what the Kings goalie depth looks like but if it’s an area of concern then Halak + LW prospect Mac Pacioretty probably makes more sense than Sam Ribeiro.

  40. Lowetide says:

    BDHS: I don’t think the Oilers believe Cogliano is a 1line LW option. Trading him for one gets them enough immediate help to save the coach (which I suspect is a priority) and gives them all kinds of roster options for 2line.

    Plus it sets them up in a more balanced manner come the fall. Frankly, the only negative I can see is that you’ve invested all of these at-bats to get here.

  41. Black Dog says:

    I’m watching that game too Colin.

    The Hawks are terrific. I wonder if they wish they hadn’t blown that wad on Campbell. Other then that its kids everywhere. They’re set up nicely.

  42. HBomb says:

    Traktor: Sam Ribeiro?

    Fuck, the kid is 19. Don’t short-sell him before he’s done his developmental years.

    And as for the center-playing-wing, not a big deal IMO. It’s a lot easier for a C to transition and play the wing than it is for a winger to go in the other direction, so if you’re deep down the middle, it can help in other areas.

    Simon Gagne and Alex Tanguay, for instance, both were drafted as centers. Drury didn’t play much C when he was in Colorado, considering who the top two centers were there. And on and on and on….

  43. cartooncolin says:

    Black Dog – the Hawks last PP was sick. Fantastic puck movement and awareness.

    And I thought I saw Frolov out there at the start of the PK.

    A couple of good young goalies too.

  44. Black Dog says:

    LT – I don’t think he’s a first line LW either nor do I think the Oilers feel that way.

    I don’t see him being a fit for LA though. I think he should be the Oilers’ second LW personally.

    Trading him for a guy you may not be able to sign doesn’t make a ton of sense to me though.

  45. Black Dog says:

    colin – yeah he’s been on the PK

    Both nice young teams.

  46. cartooncolin says:

    I’m off to Chicago for the antique jukebox show in April. Tried to get tickets while I’m there but it’s S.R.O.

    Times are a changin’ in the windy city.

  47. Lowetide says:

    BDHS: If it’s my team I probably don’t make the deal and the Oilers probably don’t because of the investment (Cogs/Gags cluster).

    It’s a very good short term option to save MacTavish, though. Plus you’re looking at 82 games in 2009-10 where the 1line is a very fast car.

  48. Black Dog says:

    You’re killing me LT. Killing me.

    I would move Cogliano for a young star player under contract. No less. If the Panthers gave Edmonton a crack at Bouwmeester and he agreed to sign, for example. But for a year of a player? We’re talking Leafs’ territory.

    This club really needs to think about shedding salary btw.

    I could see Penner moved for a pick.

    And Souray or Lubo probably will have to go too.

  49. Black Dog says:

    In an ideal situation they keep all four D, btw, and roll with Smid and Theo as the third pair.

    But that’s a ton of money back there. At least the results are there though.

  50. Lowetide says:

    BD: I think you have to think about trading Cogliano for Frolov if the deal is available. It’s a building year but you also have to consider next season too.

  51. Coach pb9617 says:

    Fun reading on our favorite false rumor monger

  52. Coach pb9617 says:

    Don’t forget Zeus.

    He doesn’t play center anymore – he wasn’t good last year, so they moved him to the wing and he’s been “reborn” as per the LA media.

  53. Schitzo says:

    The bummer in reading this thread is the consensus that Frolov would bolt after 1.25 seasons in Edmonton.

    I mean, a 20 game rental is one thing, but you’d hope that over a year and a half we could show Frolov we’re worth signing with.

    We’ve taken so much crap over the last few years that we sound like a scorned 45-year-old cat lady. “Oh Boots, Oh Mr. Cuddles, at least you’ll never leave me”.

    Except that Boots and Mr. Cuddles are actually Staios and Reddox.

  54. Lowetide says:

    HEY, Reddox is doing pretty well. He might be good enough to leave. :-)

  55. Icecastles says:

    Could they use either Staios or Moreau? They seem to like a physical game and if they want to make a legitimate go at the playoffs, they are going to need more guys with experience. Kids can do great in the regular season, but they don’t tend to get very far in the post.

  56. bookie says:

    I find it funny how there are so many Gagner and Cogliano haters out there. I see a lot of potential in both of them and I would expect it to start to show over the next year or so. I presume all of you would have traded Hemsky a few years ago when he was better known as Hemsky?

    I recognize that we need to give up something, but some of you seem to equate Gagner and Cogliano with Shremp and that is confusing to me…

  57. Lord Bob says:

    Could they use either Staios or Moreau?

    Noone could use either Staios or Moreau. Especially since Moreau’s going to have to play hockey with a white cane next season.

  58. Gord says:

    I don’t think she’ll like Edmonton:

    http://www.sportguide.ru/photos/alexander_frolov_alina.jpg

    I was at a game at Staples…the guys down at the ramp said Frolov’s wife was the hottest and pointed them out as they both left the building in their luxury sports cars!

  59. Gord says:

    Link doesn’t seem to work…try this:

    http://www.sportguide.ru/photos/alexander_frolov.jpg

  60. Lowetide says:

    bookie: Both Gagner and Cogliano are quality. I think they are going to have wonderful careers and have defended both at length (specifically Gagner this season).

    http://lowetide.blogspot.com/search/label/gagner

    http://lowetide.blogspot.com/search/label/cogliano

    But you have to give in order to get.

  61. HBomb says:

    bookie: I don’t think anyone is suggesting we give either of Cogliano or Gagner away.

    But I think there’s a general consensus on what this team’s deficiencies are, and if one of those two is the ticket to skilled size with a shoot-first mentality, well, it has to at least be considered, right?

  62. grease trap says:

    Not to be unkind, but she looks a little like Miss Piggy.

  63. Scott says:

    Traktor:

    It makes sense to get picks/prospects back for a rental, but the examples I’m talking about were for signed players (one for a year, one for five)…

    Lombardi is sticking with a long term plan and I don’t see him reaching out for a Heatley type trade and spending money before he has to.

    He wants young, cheap, skilled players to fit with his (very young) core. If they lose a couple players on the march up the standings, at least he gets to pick who to ditch.

  64. rickibear says:

    But I think there’s a general consensus on what this team’s deficiencies are, and if one of those two is the ticket to skilled size with a shoot-first mentality, well, it has to at least be considered, right?

    I wonder if there are any big size LW with good counting numbers over in europe? Say in the KHL. Just curios.

  65. reijo29 says:

    I think the bottom line is that one of Cogs or Gags will eventually need to be dealt if they both want/need to play Center.
    In terms of moving Cogs to the wing I think that if we trade Cole this week we should give Cogs a shot as the second line RW (Penner on LW & Gags at C), his skill set is suited to play the off wing. Almost all of his rushes come off the right side. I realy don't think he is a LW and I also don't think he is a 3rd line Center, he has too much offensive ability, let's not turn him into Marchant/Reasoner when he can be more then that.
    At this point in their careers and in the near future he and Gags are both 2nd liners and likely both centers.
    So one must go at some point and if we can get Frolov for Cogs I make that trade yesterday.However, I think it would have to be Cogs + Peckham or something to that effect and i'm not sure I do that for 11/4 years of Frolov.

  66. bookie says:

    LT & HBomb

    I recognize the arguement that it may well be a worthwhile trade (got to give to get, I get that), but there are just some out there who have selected Gagner as a whipping boy and that just bugs me. It may not even be anyone who commented today, just in general.

  67. Lowetide says:

    bookie: Gotcha. I think pretty much every poster here realizes that Gagner is a special talent and you don’t move him until you know exactly what he is. This season has been a trying one for him but the underlying numbers are very good and the kid is confident. Not once have I seen him wavering, not close.

    He’s smart and has gumption, plus he believes in himself even when things aren’t going his way.

    At 19.

    If they do trade him, they sure as hell better be right.

  68. HBomb says:

    bookie: What Lowetide said.

    Frankly, I’m pissed that some people are writing him off as “another Robbie Schremp” or similar.

    He’s 19. Patience is necessary.

  69. Lord Bob says:

    I agree, HBomb. Gagner can only dream of being as good as the great Rob Schremp.

  70. Dennis says:

    Everyone’s gotten to my best points first but, yeah, I’d deal 13 for Frolov for sure.

    I just don’t see 13 as a pivot so then you wonder how much more valuable he’d be as a wing than would Frolov?

    And I understand about clusters and all but how much less will 13 make on his next contract than the one awarded to Frolov? And will 13 ever be as good as Frolov is right now? And how about the great point about Frolov being of a comparable age to 83?

    I make this deal in a heartbeat.

    Of course I’d rather move Souray for Frolov but I don’t think the Kings would do that.

  71. boopronger says:

    I hear what your saying bookie. I know this has probably been brought up before but just to rehash:

    Thornton
    1st season – 7 points
    2nd season – 41 points

    Iginla
    1st season – 50 points
    2nd season – 32points

  72. Gord says:

    I wonder if there are any big size LW with good counting numbers over in europe? Say in the KHL.

    rickibear,

    Mikhnov scored 8 goals in the final 10 games of the season; plus has one goal in one playoff game.

    Too bad we don’t need big forwards (LW) who can score…… LOL

  73. Icecastles says:

    rickibear: Yes.

  74. Dennis says:

    Sad news out of Dallas yesterday, BTW. Steve Ott’s suspended pending a hearing for gouging Moen after the Duck gave Ott the pounding that people have wanted to give him for years.

    You really have to feel for the Stars. they had to overcome Avery shooting straight about the dating habits of certain starlets and now they to hurdle an incident where Ott tried to damage a guy’s eyesight.

    I know that’s not as bad as talking about who people date mind you, but once again, Poor Old Dallas.

  75. Steve says:

    wow…what i wouldn’t give to have included cogs in the deal for lubi and to still have stoll.

    Since everyone else appears to be too polite: Jesus, are you ever insane. Or sarcastic. Hard to tell the difference on the internet.

    LT’s written some good stuff on the need, in a capped world, to have players outperforming their contracts. Cogliano’s pretty much a sure thing to outperform his contract next year. Frolov’s also a good bet, but probably less of a sure thing.

    Frolov’s likely to be a better player than Cogliano in any given year in the next ten. But I just can’t see trading away one of the few contract outperformers we have, especially one who’s not an RFA until after next season, for a year and a quarter of Frolov. If we really think that next year’s the year we can do some damage, I’d rather give up the first rounder.

  76. shep says:

    murray in la has been rolling:

    frolov-kopitar-o’sullivan
    calder-stoll-brown
    richardson-handzus-simmons
    ivanans-armstrong-harrold

    johnson-greene
    quincey-gauthier
    doughty-o’donnel

    think he changed it up last game tho..

  77. reijo29 says:

    Good day for the Oil so far.
    Stars & Kings losing, I would say Kings are pretty close to being sellers now.

    Got to say I hate cheering for Flames (as I was fired) & the Canucks (tonight vs. CBJ) but you do what you gotta do I guess.

    I'm fine with the Nucks pulling away for 5th, I think 6th place & a 1st round date with the Flamers is by far our best chance at a playoff run and man would that be a great way to get our rivalry back to the fore front, especially being an Edmontonian living in Cowtown.

    Brophy, Matheson, et al. sure seem to think Kozlov is the guy coming here, I still hold out hope for Frolov or Kovalchuk (who was just sick last night).

    Penner, Gilbert, Nilsson or Pouliot, Schremp & conditional pick for Kovalchuk & Reasoner works for me and may even make sense for the Thrasers.

    Would require us to get a Dman for Cole and a rental like Guerin to replace Cole.

  78. Asiaoil says:

    I don’t mind Frolov but he will bolt. More realistic options are Radulaov – even though he’s a RW – and Kostitsyn from Montreal if you want a LW. I’d even consider Hartnell from PHI who not cost much and run:

    Penner Horcoff Hemsky
    Hartnell Gagner Pisani
    Brodziak MAP Stortini
    xx Brule xx

    Lots of grit in that top 6 and couple of real skill guys. Fill in the bottom 6 slots with cheap vets and Moreau must go. Gags plays with 2 solid vets who can score, play defense and open up some room for him. I’m sick of being so small and not being able to score either – at least this way the top 2 line can go PVP and we grind out the bottom 6 with energy guys.

    Gilbert Souray
    Visnovsky Smid
    Peckham xx

    Trade bait: Cogs, Staios, Moreau, Schremp, Roloson, Cole

    Best trade bet: Cole, Nilsson, Roloson to an eastern team like Montreal. We get Halak and Kostitsyn in return.

  79. rickibear says:

    Ice Castles and Gord You both win a prize.

    Now if we can get acoach who doesn’t have a fear of big wingers who don’t look like there hussling but still get results.

  80. reijo29 says:

    AsiaOil – Dude. Got to say none of that makes sense.

    - Montreal not trading Halak or Kostitsyn and we aren’t trading Rollie right now.
    - Even if Montreal was to trade their #1 Goalie (Currently) and their best none UFA forward they would need a hell of alot more then 2 Veterans who are UFAs and a guy that was a healthy scratch last night.
    - You ommitted Grebs in your roster.
    - Hartnell is not cheap, makes over 4 million a year and the only way Philly trades him is if we can get them comparable talent at a lower cap hit. I would love to have him though.
    - MAP at Center over Brodz and on a third line of 51-78-46. Seriously?
    - Penner’s days on the first line I believe are coming to an end.
    - Pisani is our Checking line RW as long as he’s here not our 2nd scoring line RW.

    Other then that. It’s all good.

  81. Jfry says:

    @steve

    i think calling me insane is a little over the top.

    we have a horrible pk and can’t win a draw…while i understand that we need guys to outperform their contracts, we also need a bunch of other useful skills…

    as so many people have said, both gagne and cogs want to play center, and having those two as 2, 3 at center isn’t the answer especially given their faults (yes, i know their strengths)…

    i think stoll’s contract is a little high, but that’s LAKs deal. i don’t think stoll would be the outperforming problem on a current oilers squad.

    maybe i am insane, but stoll looks great in a LAKs uni and his negative results last year need to be taken with a grain of salt as he was fed to the wolves in an attempt to help both gags and cogs achieve better results against soft minutes. trading him means we have no one other than horc to shelter the kids as has been evident this year and without that protection, the 2nd line has lost some of it’s luster.

    with the exception of gagne, we’re not really a team built around youth as LAKs are…we have a lot of vets and should be sprinkling in rookies with upside as need be…stoll would answer immediate needs now and for the duration that our core is signed for. cogs is still developing and might be a B level talent once our vets are gone.

    we can’t pretend that what’s going on in Edmonton is a “rebuild” and we have to hang onto our young guys at all cost because the team’s not designed that way. macT’s comments re: “this is the best team i’ve had” and “we can win the conference” don’t speak to a rebuild. the only thing that speaks to a rebuild is our mediocre results and ridiculously high expectations of young players.

    if that opinion makes me insane, i can’t believe where my political opinions would put me.

  82. Bank Shot says:

    Everyone’s gotten to my best points first but, yeah, I’d deal 13 for Frolov for sure.

    I wouldn’t trade for him because I don’t think there’s a high probability that the Oilers can keep him.

    Successful teams build from within, and once the winning starts to happen then it’s easier to attract and retain talent so taking a gamble like this is no longer needed.

  83. Jfry says:

    is it a myth that good teams are built from within or is their data? i’m not trying to be a whizinheimer (sp?)

    during the oiler’s success that was surely the case, and some of the current “good teams” seem to represent that philosophy, but it seems to me that there are plenty of teams who build spare parts from within and get everything else from other teams…our cup run a few years ago comes to mind as a team that had some locals, but a lot of imports…philly right now…calgary over the last few years has brought in lots of talent from other teams…certainly good internal development is important, but does it win you the pageant?

    anyhow…i have no conclusive proof one way or another, but would like a “myth busters” episode on it.

  84. hunter1909 says:

    “we’re not really a team built around youth as LAKs are…we have a lot of vets and should be sprinkling in rookies with upside as need be”

    Our veteran forwards are simply putrid. Hemsky aside, just a collection of second rate players, and worse.

    Jfry – Philly? Calgary? Since when have either of these playoff palookas won jack shit?

  85. hunter1909 says:

    Habitually trading away draft picks is without a shadow of a doubt the stupidest management imaginable.

    Of course Oilers will trade theirs, just so MacFuck can maybe save his useless face over the next 20 games.

  86. Icecastles says:

    Jfry said…
    is it a myth that good teams are built from within or is their data?

    Well, it holds true for Detroit, Chicago and a few other teams, that’s for sure. I think teams like San Jose are remarkable evidence otherwise though.

    I think it’s a bit of a myth… the main thing is that the team is built with a consistent philosophy and a recognition that it has to be built towards a limited window of success. In the cap age, that is probably a bit easier by bringing up good players who work well together than trading for high-priced guys who don’t always necessarily gel with a team/philosophy the way you hoped.

    Easier to recover from an $800,000 mistake in roster-building than a $5 million one.

  87. Traktor says:

    Just for fun:

    Gagner PTS/60: 1.30
    Perron Pts/60: 2.29

    Gagner GFON/60: 2.42
    Perron GFON/60: 2.74

    Gagner GAON/60: 2.07
    Perron GAON/60: 1.74

    Gagner GF GA: 24 20
    Perron GF GA: 30 19

    Gagner Corsi: 1.9
    Perron Corsi: 0.9

    Gagner QC: -0.01
    Perron QC: -0.05

    Gagner QT: 0.01
    Perron QT: 0.47

    Gagner: 56 6 14 20
    Perron: 61 9 29 38

  88. hunter1909 says:

    Penner is the perfect example of insane asset management. Not only he cost the Oilers first three picks in an entire year’s draft, but he costs UFA overpay money, and isn’t delivering half of what Leprachaun Lowe promised he would.

    It also seems that teams who are forced to get UFA’s at market rate, unless getting an absolute star player are simply hamstringing their futures, particularly if all they’re doing is attemting to cover up their own bad player development.

  89. Icecastles says:

    On n unrelated topic, here is a stat that really speaks to where the team’s core weakness is this season (not that it was a big mystery:

    Detroit GF/GA: 234/187
    Edmonton GF/GA: 173/188

    Even including three epic blowout losses this season, the Oil has only allowed one more goal than Detroit. And we have scored 61 fewer goals. Wow. Makes you wonder what Detroit would be like with Roli instead of WasGood and Conkaine. Not that I would ever want to find out.

    Which reminds me – does anyone know of an embroidery shop that does a decent job on Oilers jerseys that would be able/willing to do the numbers in Hirigana/Kanji (Japanese)?

  90. Bendelson says:

    I don’t have much to say outside of the observation that nobody seems to give much respect to Cogliano and his future with the Oilers.

    Yes Frolov is a nice idea… tempting. But is this the time to bail out on a super exciting, young speedster that continues to score more big goals for the team, for a potential 16 month rental? You have to pay a price to develop… patience is critical.

    From what I read – long thread – Black Dog seems to have it right.

    Kovalchuk deal? No doubt, lets talk about Cogs or Gags with Nilsson, Chorney and some tasty draft picks… but Frolov? You don’t change the long-term direction of the team for Frolov… or, at least, I don’t.

    (Note: I acknowledge here that many do not think the Oilers have a long term direction…)

    I continue to believe Cogliano is undervalued, and going to be a very good player for a long time… No one knows the ‘high water mark’ for Cogliano – patience and we may continue to be surprised.

    If we are talking about being better next year… then say goodbye to Cole – a fine and useful player with NO future in Edmonton beyond this spring.

  91. Jonathan Willis says:

    Traktor:

    Are those Perron’s numbers for this year or last year? Because to be fair he is 15 months older than Gagner.

  92. Jonathan Willis says:

    Traktor: Nevermind; I just looked. Perron’s numbers from last year are ahead of Gagner’s from this year too, albeit not by as much.

  93. HBomb says:

    OOTS: Columbus down 2-0 to Vancouver through 40. I hate the Canucks, but a Luongo “donut” helps me in my hockey pool, and a Columbus loss helps the Oilers, so I hope this holds up.

    Meanwhile, from the Dept. of Schadenfreude, Kipper has given up 5 goals on 19 shots as the Lightning lead the Flames 5-4 through two periods.

  94. knighttown says:

    Did anyone else hear that the Devils just demoted Scott Clemmenson? Apparently, he was never actually called up…just an “emergency” recall for an injury to Martin Brodeur…in fucking November.

    Issue #1- I thought emergency recall could last 10 games to not affect waiver status? Didn’t Brule get a few extra games because of this? But 4 months is a little ridiculous.

    Issue #2- Lou Lamoriello is a fantastic GM but he’s not much of a human being. The Devils have been the best team in hockey since the All-Star break and a lot of that credit goes to Scott Clemmenson. This team is a serious Cup contender and to think that they could go on and win a Cup while he takes bus trips with the Albany River Rats makes me sick.

    Issue #3- aren’t the Devils a better team with Clemmenson on it? Even if Brodeur plays every minute, you’ve got to think the morale will be affected by a teammate being treated unjustly.

    I hope I’m wrong on some of these hypotheses. Is there any reason they can’t waive or trade Weekes and keep Scott as their backup? Would that then expose him to waivers? What if they trade Clemmenson to Detroit? Does he actually go to Grand Rapids and then have to be called up?

    If I’m the Devils I do anything I can to keep this kid from going to the minors short of moving him to a contender in the East, like Buffalo. Find a way to keep him or move him to Detroit, but don’t make him play in the AHL.

  95. PDO says:

    I’m enjoying this Flames/Lightning game far too much.

    I turned it on it was 4-2.

    Now it’s 6-5.

    Bwhahaha.

  96. PDO says:

    Seven!

    I mean, it’s not a blow out… but how the hell do you let Tampa Bay drop 7 on you?

  97. Dennis says:

    PDO: I’m cheering for the Flames. Every TB loss takes them further and further away from the Leaves and thus gives them a better chance at securing a better pick.

    And, yes, I am that petty. Was it here that someone mentioned Brule’s season? I know it’s a shit team but it’s his third season in the A and the numbers don’t support him being a top sixer in the NHL.

  98. PDO says:

    Dennis:

    Guess you can’t be happy that the Bruins offered up Colbourne, a 2009 1st and a 2010 third for Kaberle then? Cause I know I’m not.

    The Leaves won in OT last night, so I figure we can allow for Tampa to embarrass the Flames at home on Jarome Iginla night.

  99. myhybridself says:

    Well, it holds true for Detroit, Chicago and a few other teams, that’s for sure. I think teams like San Jose are remarkable evidence otherwise though.

    They flashed a stat during the Habs/Sharks on HNIC last night. San Jose is icing something like 11 or 12 of their own draft picks this year. Six starters have come through trades and four through FA.

  100. HBomb says:

    Tampa Bay hangs eight on Calgary.

    The Flames aren’t in the same league as Detroit or San Jose, and if Kipper plays like that come April, they’re going to have trouble getting out of the first round, let alone beating either of the western heavyweights.

    In other words….best of luck to the Calgary Flames this coming playoff season.

  101. Fake Craig McTavish says:

    HBomb said…
    Tampa Bay hangs eight on Calgary.

    The Flames aren’t in the same league as Detroit or San Jose, and if Kipper plays like that come April, they’re going to have trouble getting out of the first round, let alone beating either of the western heavyweights.

    In other words….best of luck to the Calgary Flames this coming playoff season.

    And they’re a whole other level above the Oilers.

    It’s quite sad, actually.

  102. Lowetide says:

    FCM: If the management of this organization decided to add some pieces and the Oilers played Calgary in the first round it would be an absolute thriller.

    This team lacks depth and experience and they’re giving too many at-bats to the kids but there’s a lot of talent on this club.

    With Kipper in the “hey look, that puck hit Tommy in the mask” phase of his career they are ripe for the picking.

  103. pboy says:

    Knighttown:

    I heard an interview with NJ Lou a few days ago. He gave most of the credit for their stellar play to Clemenson and he said that it just wasn’t fair to Sutter to have to deal with 3 goalies at the same time up in the NHL. Weekes stayed up and Clemenson went down because Weekes would have had to clear waivers and Clemenson didn’t. He also said that they didn’t want to give away an asset in Weekes and that they were listening to offers for him. I would think that it’s a lock that Weekes gets dealt before the deadline and Clemenson is back up. As far as what type of human Lou is, I have no idea but he is without a doubt one of the top 5 GM’s in the league and I would take a successful asshole over a back slapping, pancake breakfast superstar right about now in our head office.

  104. HBomb says:

    FCM: Honestly, I don’t think the gap is that wide.

    A veteran center and another decent veteran defensemen (not to mention a better coach, but that’s a whole other debate), and I’d like the Oilers chances in seven against the Flames.

    Just look at the four match-ups so far this year between the two things: split, with the Oilers having an OT point. And lest we forget that the good guys were about a minute away from being 3W-1L against their southern Alberta rivals.

    Yes, the Flames are better. But they’re not in the upper echelon of the west. Hell, I think the Blackhawks are a more dangerous team going into the second season….

  105. PunjabiOil says:

    On a completely unrelated note, the Oilers decided to honour Visnovsky’s NTC, which kicked in on July 1.

    http://hfboards.com/showthread.php?p=18126343#post18126343

    I love the player, and hope he finishes his career with the Oilers – but why on earth would the Oilers do such a thing, when they had the option to not honor it?

  106. PDO says:

    PJO:

    Sign of respect, gain some credibility with UFA’s. Classy thing to do.

  107. Dennis says:

    LT: if 71 was healthy And we added a guy that could wind faceoff’s, I’d say we’d take Cgy to six games for sure and we’d beat them if the Kids woke up for two weeks.

    but as it is right now I think they’d have to pick up a helluva vet D in order to give me any hope.

    You know, getting back to 89, we can say that last year he was lucky and this year he’s unlucky but it’s next year that’s gonna tell the tide.

  108. rickibear says:

    Gagner Corsi: 1.9
    Perron Corsi: 0.9

    Gagner QC: -0.01
    Perron QC: -0.05

    Gagner QT: 0.01
    Perron QT: 0.47

    Traktor: When I look at these numbers. People need to put more importance on the quality of teamates and Competition. There are defined levels of strength and competion.

    Perron is facing the 20th easiest competition possible for any forward in the league.

    While having the tenth best scoring teamates for forwards in the league. Berglund & Boyes

    Plus they are both in the 20 worst pp pts producing forwards in the league.

    So to compare a guy who gets super soft minutes with the best teamates options in the league at even. To a young man who is forced to face a higher level of competition with far worse teamates. Well that is unfair to begin with.

    You would expect far superior numbers at even. Surprise Surprise when you look for players in that situation his numbers are the worst above water to the likes of Chimera, Voracek, Boby Ryan. Only Nathan Horton is a nightmare.

    Compare Gagner to players in his situation well there is a list of players at the top with (+4-8) goals. He outscores with the likes of Glencross, Reinprecht, Langkow, St.louis. 20 other players are all negative.

    Traktor you are usually better. Comparing a guy (perron)who has the softest walk in the league to a young man (gagner) who is asked to play in a situation that has a failing grade 70% for most players. Gagner is in a gruoup of special even strength players.

    Thanks for this. His numbers may not say great but his results are just sick.

    It shows that this young man is already there. Just get him better linemates.

    We had better play this young man with hemmer and Penner. Next year.

    It wil free horcoff to play 1B.

  109. Woodguy says:

    Lowe seems determined to add a superstar for Hemsky.

    He has stated as much in interviews at the end of last year.

    We saw it with his pursuit of Hossa.

    We see it now with Lowe going to Russia to talk with Jagr.

    We saw this type of mentality when he went and got Pronger.

    Lowe played with superstars and he knows what they add to a team, and is determined to have one.

    Lowe insists that the team needs a superstar type player. I don’t disagree with him, but I’m not sure Jagr fits that category anymore.

    I do know he’ll be the best player that Hemsky has every played with, and that can only be good.

    I like Frolov a lot, and he’s probably a better long term solution than Jagr, but Lowe wants a superstar, so don’t hold your breath for Frolov.

    I see Jagr at 10M over 2 years being announced July 1.

  110. Kev says:

    Agree LT, a playoff encounter with the Flames would make the season for me. Would make up for the frustrating evenings I’ve had with the team because I’ve been waiting for this very match up for a long time.

    Regarding Stoll, and I may have mentioned here before, there was a Saskatchewan radio personality on one of the radio shows who was at Stoll’s golf tourney last summer who alluded that Stollie and Torres were not going to give what it takes to play here anymore. I’ve always appreciated what Stoll did here, but after hearing this and remembering the healthy scratches, sure sounds like it was time to move on.

    Trade deadline time is always exciting and fun to speculate on and there’s been great thoughts here. Thanks everybody!
    For me the right ‘fit’ is also important. My radar always picks up on things like the wife/significant other may be a big city high maintenance female.

    Regarding giving up Gagner or Cogliano. I’d be loathte to give up either of them, but yeah, depends on what’s coming back. Anyone care to comment that it’s easier for centres to play off wing than vice versa. Just a thought.

  111. Master Lok says:

    While Frolov is interesting, I wouldn’t trade any of the four kids (Smid, Cogs, Gagner, Grebeshkov) because it doesn’t make any financial sense. I think we can sign Grebby to less than Frolov. And unless we’re willing to commit to sign Frolov, then we’re giving up a valuable kid for one year of Frolov which is plain stupid.

    And with Penner’s and Horcoff’s contract, I can’t see how we could sign Frolov to a $4 million plus long term contract. Not with the Cap dropping in two years.

  112. Traktor says:

    rickibear:

    Where are you getting this 20th easiest minutes from? And special category 5×5 play? 70%?

    Gagner has been given everything on a silver platter this year. He’s been getting quality on his line all year.

    BTN is useful but it isn’t perfect. In reality I can’t see much of a different in QT between the two. Gagner’s been given every opportunity to succeed this year – almost to a fault.

    If Gagner was playing for the Blues do you honestly think he’d be putting up Perron numbers? I can’t see it personally. MacT is doing everything in his power to get this kid going.

    We know that Horc is taking an insane amount of defensive draws and Brodziak has taken his fair share. How many has Gagner taken? The guy has it easy.

    If you’re suggesting that Gagner would put up similar numbers under Perron’s conditions then I’d suggest we hire Andy Murray. I’ll gladly concede this battle if that’s what you’re implying :)

  113. rickibear says:

    Pretty simple: Its statistics. Standard bell curve results in league play.

    David Perron sits number 17 from the bottom of forwards playing 10 min or greater. Qual Comp. He sits number 10 in the favorable Quality of teammate.

    You look at the situation. Easy comp great teammates. It is on the end of the bell curve so you expect a small sample size. You can still get a mean if you look at a two or three year period. if the mean is close to constant it is a decent measure of average. The results should trend to a curve. Ask yourself is he above average or below.

    Same with Gagners situation. Near the middle of the bell curve in league play. Therefore larger sample size. But given the results see were they sit on the curve. 75% of the players have a negative number in GF GA.

    Repetitive play. Has the game changed in approach of play to show a difference in results for 10years. The answer will be a curve. just shifted.

    The situation will be a grouped sample size. Without a dramatic change we can establish lines in the sand. Then compare the player to that line.

    A rough visual look at the sample for soft comp Great teamates says a GF/GA of +10 is on the end of the bell curve that says not great.

    Gagners GF/GA of +4 for players average comp and average teamates is on the end of the bell curve that says holly shit. The mean point statisticly is (-3.5).

    There was 31 players that fit the category. And only 8 players were positive.
    Glencross +9
    Pavelski +8
    St. Louis +8
    Renprecht +7
    Langkow +5
    Gagner +4
    Sharp +3
    Bernier +2

    Sample sizes for situational play should be similiar. and a line in the sand for that situation should be established. Science. Math. Game played in a repetitive style.

    Hvaing designed drill rigs and drill ships, Heavy Equipment, Conveyor systems, pipelines, and now working at a power plant. it is about recognizing repetition and consistency.

    The post lock out clearly gives us a small sample size. But we are trending to the point were line in the sand values for situational play can be established.

    New levels of data and statistical review has come to are hands. Lets start marking ghe standards. 30-50 list etc.

  114. Brett Gee 英 明 says:

    I think that the best move would be to fill in the gaps that we’ve been talking about for a while; a vetern dman and someone up front who an win faceoffs. The key to that is that it’s cheap and not short-sighted/stupid.

    Everyone thought that this would be a great team. Turns out that its not even really that good. A few tweaks might vault them up in chemistry,heart, vision, etc. and it could fire up the other floaters/underachievers. If we can get even, say Horcoff and Pisani, rolling the way that they can then we could start winning games.

    For example, if we have another reliable dman, then won’t the extra rest during games make Souray and the others that much better?

    Just a spark. Now, who should we get?

  115. rickibear says:

    Why the attempt at higher level of discussion.

    I am tired of trying to deal with the Hockey future clowns. You will get my. Stats, Lists and trend analysis.

    Besides The board has warned me about my comments. There are some really stupid ****ing people over there.

    You will have to forgive my English and sentence structure. A langauge based on all the others just is not logical.

  116. NBOilerFan says:

    I also don’t understand the amount of negitivity on here regarding the ability to get Frolov resigned after his contract expires.

    We wouldn’t want to resign him if he didn’t pan out, but if he did… he would be offered 1st line minutes and hopefully would be on a team that is rounding a corner and on the uprise (as most of us thought last summer). Why is it so unconceivable that we would not be able to extend him and he is an “automatic” for heading out of town? This is based on absolutely no facts…. just the drivel we have been lead to believe that “no one likes Edmonton”.

    I also am surprised at so many that wouldn’t do a Cogs for Frolov deal because Frolov “might” leave after 16 MONTHS!! This is not really a “rental” comeon. Thing about what this player can bring to this team…. teh entire next seaso nfrom game #1. I think this is a player that makes sense for Hemsky’s line.

    Heck… we would also have teh option to deal Frolov at nextt years deadline.

    I do a Cog’s for Frolov, even though I like Cogs. Perhaps others just see Cogs upside being higher than mine?

    I’d much prefer Frolov over Jagr… even though we don’t giveup anything for Jagr.

  117. NBOilerFan says:

    I need to spend more time spell checking…lol.

  118. godot10 says:

    One year of Frolov for 5 years of Cogliano is a risky deal.

    Free agent Russians tend to migrate to the large Russain expat communities in big American cities. Once you been to LA, I don’t know if you can go to Edmonton.

    Two years of Frolov for 5 years of Cogliano would be a good deal. 1 year, not so much.

    You better be damn sure his significant other is fine with Edmonton.

  119. Traktor says:

    rickibear:

    Interesting stuff and something I’ll have to follow moving forward.

    I added up the points of the other 8 players in Gagner’s situational bracket and we get 0.67 points per game.

    Right now Gagner is at 0.35 points per game.

    Basically half the production of his counterparts.

    I’m not sold on Gagner yet.

    I take it you’re oilerbear on HF. We need some reasoning over there so you should keep posting.

    No worries on the English either – I’m certainly no professor.

  120. B.C.B. says:

    RickiBear: that was some good analysis.

  121. NBOilerFan says:

    Some had mentioned above about LA possibly looking for picks… I just saw the following list of teams picks for the 2009 draft. Interesting stuff… especially that LA has the most picks for 2009… 14 in total. EDM has 8.

    http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/2009/02/19/trade_deadline_numbers/

  122. Ribs says:

    I’ve never been a big fan of Frolov. He seems like a guy that would bust here.

    If I were trading with the Kings, I’d be looking to rent O’Donnell for the push.

  123. Bruce says:

    It’ll cost a lot, because he’s durable, has size and can score goals. He’s good on the powerplay. He’s …

    … Dustin Penner?

  124. Ribs says:

    …And hours since that post…

    LATIMES.COM: …Kings GM Dean Lombardi said he intends to re-sign defenseman Sean O’Donnell.

    Well fine then.

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