Sledgehammer

by Lowetide

The 1986-87 Oilers are my favourite edition of the franchise. Glen Sather was aggressive all year in an effort to flatten the NHL after losing to the Calgary Flames in the spring of 1986. I loved the Nilsson addition, it hurt my heart to see Fogolin go. Same week.

THE ATHLETIC

WHAT TO EXPECT IN MARCH

  • On the road to: SEA (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
  • At home to: PIT (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
  • On the road to: BOS, CBJ, BUF, PIT (Expected 2-1-1) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • At home to: WAS, COL, MON, BUF (Expected 2-1-1) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • On the road to: TOR, OTT, WPG (Expected 1-2-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • At home to: LAK, ANA (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • Overall expected result: 8-5-2, 18 points in 15 games
  • Actual March results: 2-0-0, 4 points in two games
  • Oilers in 2023-24: 37-20-2, 76 points in 59 games

I don’t know that the Oilers or fans can take much out of last night’s game. Honestly. The Penguins had a hard time getting out of Calgary after the Saturday game and didn’t arrive in their hotel until 4am. Have you ever got back to your hotel at 4am? Nothing good ever happens at 4am. Edmonton was absolute fire and it was a fun evening. The road trip ahead should have some success, too.

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OriginalPouzar

Condors very patient on the PP as time was running out in the second period. Dineen down to Pederson in the corner who holds, comes out, fakes taking it to the net and passes to Griffith in the high slot who shows more patience, as he holds for a second for a lane to open and buries the tying goal with 0.8 left in the 2nd.

OriginalPouzar

I missed most of the first and the three goals on Rodrigue but he’s come up huge late in the 2nd with some fantastic saves on the PK.

OriginalPouzar

Tulio with a great zone entry, cut to the middle, opens space, dishes to Caggiula in the high slot who rips one.

3-2 SD early in the 2nd.

OriginalPouzar

Lavoie grabs a loose puck in the neutral zone, comes down the right side on a 2 on 1, to the circles, snaps one home low far side.

geowal

Not so obvious prediction: Injuries taking toll, Vegas free falls in March against highly motivated potential wild card teams, who increasingly see Vegas as the target as they slide. Vegas is a bubble team by playoffs, and ends up with Vancouver.
Which would be oddly beneficial to Vegas given the experience disparity. Mark Stone scores the Nucks eliminator, because Vegas.

Or they miss outright.

Last edited 24 days ago by geowal
Ranford.85

I’ve often thought the same thing. With such a wealth of talent, two PP units is a strong option. Looks stale as can be right now.

To play devil’s advocate, is it better to have one unit clicking around 30% or two units that run around 25%?

jp

It’s actually sort of weird they haven’t been using him there consistently (ie – that it’s newsworthy they’re using him there tonight).

Last edited 24 days ago by jp
godot10

It is too late…tonight…to drag the past out…into the light.

jp

Yes. It’s a little bit of a curious decision, though presumably a decision was made.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

Interesting analysis, as usual. Appreciate the post. I’d also like to see a bit more of a balanced approach with a functional PP2. If the top unit can’t score in the first minute, change ’em out. The momentum of getting other players going would be huge.

On an unrelated note, I do wonder if you have any favourites for deadline acquisitions?

Tarkus

The Oilers have apparently talked to Anaheim about Adam Henrique and Sam Carrick, according to Friedman.

Last edited 24 days ago by Tarkus
hunter1909

Two weeks or so ago Lowetide was saying how he’d timed posters out for something like 30 days, then right in the middle of the playoff stretch run Harper’s Hair suddenly vanishes?

Lowetide it might work to have like a penalty box with various posters serving time, each sentence posted with the offending poster lol

Last edited 24 days ago by hunter1909
OriginalPouzar

Eichel activated and playing tonight.

Stone officially on LTIR giving the Knight’s $7.3MM of cap space and “knowing” they won’t need to activate Stone.

hunter1909

Cup champs Vegas again making like Sam Pollock; twisting the rules while the other teams simply look on in bemused horror.

OriginalPouzar

Did Bill Foley pay someone to lacerate Stone’s spleen.

Genjutsu

I’d do it for a tenner.

90s fan

While a ruptured spleen is certainly a legitimate LTIR, it still bugs me. Perhaps more so because its stone and his giant salary. Again. And perhaps even more so since he may actually be ready for playoffs. And lastly, its going to make it harder for us to upgrade.

OriginalPouzar

Jackets up 2-0 on Vegas – still in the first period though.

jp

Ya jinxed em OP.

OriginalPouzar

That didn’t age well, knew I shouldn’t have said anything.

Chief Inspector

Alex Nylander you beauty. Hattrick 6-3 Colombus final.

OriginalPouzar

Wouldn’t be against Holland getting Vinny locked up at 2-3 years / $1.5MM per

godot10

Vinny’s number is going to be 3 x $3 million or 4 x $2.5 million or something like that.

I would say those are floor dollars for each term.

Last edited 24 days ago by godot10
OriginalPouzar

I don’t imagine its anywhere near a $3MM AAV unless he explodes in the playoffs and it playing 20 minutes plus.

Diablo

Kulak’s deal is pretty good comparison, signed at age 28 for 2.75 x 4 million, for a LHD that can play up the lineup in a 2nd pairing role if needed, but is better slotted as a 3rd pairing defenseman on a contender. Vinny will be 28 this summer. Kulak had more years of experience in the NHL, but Vinny is a RHD.

I’d be OK if they paid Vinny Kulak’s money, traded away Kulak for draft capital, and then promoted Broberg. Next season.

hunter1909

After checking out the current Western Conference standings Oilers now chasing Colorado who have 3 more points all OT losses. In other words, Oilers record is identical to Colorado’s aside from 3 less OT losses. Wow, what a season this is so far.

Now Oilers go to Boston enjoying another 4 game win streak. As a former resident of the Back Bay for me this is probably the biggest game and test of Oiler’s progress this season. Boston is a great team, proving it yet again a couple of weeks ago in Edmonton.

Am not worried about the goalies at all. Both of them are playing NHL level goalering by any metric, and Oiler’s got Draisaitl, McDavid, and now even Hyman is getting close to needing a shadow.

ArmchairGM

Speaking of OT losses, Boston has a league-leading fourteen! That’s a lot of loser points…

Rugbypig

That really means not being defeated in regulation.

Abbeef

It also means not winning in regulation…

OriginalPouzar

As mentioned last night, Oilers have passed the Avs via points percentage.

Janus

AVs win 5-0 over Chicago.

Now back in front.

MacKinnon with 2G and 2A to take over the scoring lead.

OriginalPouzar

Matty reporting that Foegle told him “no substantive talks on a new contract” which isn’t surprising given its unlikely they’ll be able to afford to bring him back.

With that said, Holland (and Jackson) will have a much better idea of how much free money they’ll have for next season and the holes they’ll need to use it on after Friday (not that Holland will likely be making off-season decisions but he could certainly be in talks with the likes of Vinny, Foegele, etc. now).

hunter1909

Glen Sather would jettison Foegle into the sun in a heartbeat.

Strictly a complimentary player easily replaced by any well run contender.

Let Oilers win the 2024 cup, then let Foegle go to some sad sack team where they make him captain. Like Boston Bruins’s nonentity Ference was for Dallas Eakins.

Last edited 24 days ago by hunter1909
DevilsLettuce

Here here

OriginalPouzar

What “Sather would have done” in the 80s, or even 90s, has no relevance to how team’s need to be run in the current salary cap era.

I agree that Foegle likely should not be brought back but, to the first line, irrelevant.

Scungilli Slushy

Or Sather would look at the player and want to spend the money in a different way. I think this team is quite different than Glen would have it. Any non high end offensive player had to have jam in some way – physicality or personality, like Linseman, or both. Everyone hard to play against. No free rides

I imagine Sather would have Vinny, but only until he could upgrade the skill and also have toughness if that was wanted in the spot. He never kept that kind of player for long if he could get better .Sather didn’t have an external cap, but he had an internal budget, as many teams still do

hunter1909

Hilariously Sather called Paul Coffey out for refusing to sign his final contract offer – going on to question his courage before trading him for Craig Simpson and spare parts.

OriginalPouzar

Broberg is back in for the Condors tonight (one of the make-up games in San Diego).

defmn

Frank Seravalli

@frank_seravalli

Sources say #njdevilcomment image have fired coach Lindy Ruff.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

Sounds like a Ruff day for Lindy.

I’ll get my coat.

defmn

Didn’t Ruff get a new contract last fall?

Sounds like a dream come true that somebody would pay me millions a year not to go to work. 😇

Scungilli Slushy

Hear hear

OriginalPouzar

Just like McLellan and lets not forget Sutter the year before – didn’t he get fired before his new 3 year deal even kicked in?

Janus

Odd timing.

Travis Green taking over on an interim basis.

Reja

If Seattle is selling would Holland bring back Yamamoto who could show Brown how to put pucks in around the blue paint. If Yamo did come back I know specifically 1 poster who would be doing the Irish Jig in celebration.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

With Eberle available, why not aim higher?

Jaxon

Larsson, Schultz, Eberle, and Yamamoto.

hunter1909

Why not also bring back Justin Schultz to show the team how to win the Stanley Cup?

Darth Tu

Kane-McD-Hyman
Nuge-Drai-Yamo
Holloway-McLeod-Perry
Gagner-Ryan-Eberle
 
Ekholm-Bouch
Nurse-Larsson
Kulak-Vinny
(Schultz)
 
Skinner

STANLEY CUP!

That 4th line will grind the poop out of all comers.

Scungilli Slushy

Nice kid but I do not get this Yama love. He had one good stretch and then a whole lot of nothing much, except getting manhandled and hurt, and missing gaping cages, which he continues in Seattle

If they get a winger they have to be the type to play through Vegas and LA clogging and obstruction and put nice set ups in the net. That is the need, they have enough fairweather types that can produce when it isn’t that hard to

And they need to be responsible enough so that the Avs / Stars / Rangers / Panthers offensive onslaughts are stymied

OriginalPouzar

What? After doing nothing but calling him “stone hands” last season?

Elgin R

Come for the stories – stay for the comments! All the best to you LT and all Lowetidians!

Last edited 24 days ago by Elgin R
Elgin R

VAN’s PDO bubble has burst.

Oct 10 – Jan 31

  • VAN: 33-11-5 for 71 pts / PDO = 105.2 (1st)
  • OIL: 29-15-1 for 59 pts / PD) = 101.1 (10th)

Feb 1 – Mar 3

  • VAN: 6-6-2 for 14 pts / PDO = 97.8 (30th)
  • OIL: 8-5-1 for 17 pts / PDO = 100.6 (16th)

IF the PDO (and pts) hold, both teams finish with 104 pts. Oilers would finish first as they would have he most RW (based on extrapolated PDO/ wins).

Oilers win the SC and VAN signs a point-per-game player to a an $11.6M contract.
(NOTE: Hyman is +25 and 61 pts in 58 games)

Last edited 24 days ago by Elgin R
John Chambers

Of note, Elias Lindholm is 14 4-2-6 -5 as a Canuck. I can’t see Van affording him along with the new contracts for Pettersson and Hronek, so chalk it up as a bunch of assets out for (so far) an underwhelming return on their investment on a pure rental.

Janus

You may want to take a look at Vancouver’s March schedule.

After road games against LAK and VGK this week (both of which will have an impact on the Pacific Division standings) they play 9 straight games at home.

There are no back to backs or 3 in 4 situations.

Their home record is 20-6-3.

The Oilers have TWO eastern road trips in March each including a back to back as well as two instances where they play 3 games in 4 nights.

Another schedule quirk has the Canucks playing both LAK and VGK 3 times each to close out the season so there is the potential for a slew of 3 point games.

Elgin R

Does it really matter with a PDO of 97.8? VAN is done, now and in the future.

Janus

PDO is not static.

Assuming it will stay at 97.8 is just as useful as assuming it would stay at 105. (it’s still at 103.23 on the season)

Having a 3 week stretch at home where the team has a win percentage of .741 late in the season is nothing but a benefit.

Of course they have to execute.

Elgin R

Ha Ha VAN is done. Regular season PDO ponies happen every year, then get crushed in the payoffs.

Janus

Name three.

Darth Tu

Vancouver Canucks.
Los Angeles Kings.

There’s 2 from this year alone 😀

SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo!

Someone has a new handle don’t they HH 😉

defmn

You nailed it.

Darth Tu

This is possibly the worst episode of Scooby Doo ever 😀

ArmchairGM

H. Hugh Janus.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

Ha.

You rectum, damn near killed ’em.

Ryan

The Avalanche in 2013 had a PDO heater, finished the season with 112 points, and were knocked out in the 1st round.

That’s the first PDO pony team that I can recall.

Mind you it was only a 1.018 PDO.

Last edited 24 days ago by Ryan
Janus

I was wondering about the 2018/19 Tampa Bay team that finished with 128 points and then lost in the first round to Columbus.

But their PDO was only 1.017

jp

If you define riding the PDO pony as a 1020 or better PDO, there have been 23 teams in the last 16 seasons to have done so (this isn’t including this season, but going back as far as NST data does). So 1.4 teams per season on average.

Of those 23 teams:
3 won the Cup
1 lost in the Finals
3 lost in the Conference Finals
7 lost in round 2
9 lost in round 1 (WSH in 2010, TOR in 2013, FLA in 2016, WSH and TBL in 2019, MIN and TOR in 2021, MIN in 2022 and BOS in 2023)

Perhaps more interesting – none of the 3 Cup winners had a PDO higher than 1024.

The 4 teams with a 1030 or better PDO all went out in the first (WSH in 2010, TOR in 2013 and BOS in 2023) or second round (BOS in 2009).

Vancouver has plummeted from over 1050 for most of the season to 1034 currently, but maybe that’s actually a good thing.

Towards the original point, there is an over-representation of teams who won the Cup in a PDO pony season (13% of the 1020 PDO group), but far more of them bowed out in the 1st round (39% of them) and fully 70% of this group didn’t make it out of the 2nd round after their season long pony ride.

90s fan

Law of large numbers. No its not static. But enough games and it goes to 100.

Sierra

Janus, is that you HH? I’ve been wondering for a few days now. Similar subjects to your posts, similar writing pattern.

Bad Seed

That’s him alright. Another alias, same schtick. Where’s Mr Side to cut him down proper like?

hunter1909

Yada yada yada the Canucks are poised to dominate lol

ArmchairGM

Tarasenko and Dowd remain at the top of my list for forward acquisitions. I believe both will fetch something like 2nd + 4th, Tarasenko coming with 50% retention and Dowd with 25%.

A further 50% retention on Tarasenko by a 3rd team would likely cost a 5th.

Getting both depends on which team values prospects like Bourgault, Akey and Lavoie. I’ve heard that Ottawa would consider either Bourgault or Akey in lieu of a 2nd, if so it’s possible to add both Tarasenko and Dowd at the deadline.

I don’t see an obvious upgrade to Ceci who might be available, so they should look for an upgrade to Desharnais instead. Admittedly we didn’t think Ekholm would be available last year, so there’s a lot we don’t know.

Durag

I’m hoping Tarasenko’s price stays low because he has a full NTC and can veto all but his preferred destination, which I hope is here!

MushedPeas

Not the kind of thing holland is known for noting.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

I’m right there with you on this assessment. Realistic, and achievable.

Both players are likely a great fit on our team. Trail run for Tarasenko (whom I’d bet we could extend at a reasonable cost if there’s a fit in the top-6), and get the extra year of Dowd to improve the bottom-6.

Last edited 24 days ago by BornInAGretzkyJersey
Silver Streak

” Akey in lieu of a second ” not a chance that happens…Bourgault maybe. Akey is the planned replacement for Bouchard when his contract renewal ask is out of reach.

OriginalPouzar

I imagine that Akey has 100% on the table in this type of trade and the above highly over-rates him and/or his time of arrival.

He’ll be in junior next season again so just turning pro when Bouchard’s next contract kicks in.

OriginalPouzar

I would suggest that Lavoie and Bourgault have all but nominal value.

Lavoie has done nothing to increase his value since he cleared waivers (ran in place in the AHL for the most part) and his QO will be higher in June.

I would like: Carrier, Dowd and a “skilled winger” (Eberle, Taransenko) but i want it without moving a Foegele/Kulak/Ceci out.

I want to add, not upgrade. I think they could do that with Carrier and Dowd but buying the Carrier cap hit down and removing a bottom for the roster forward (Gagner/Brown).

It doesn’t seem to make sense that the Preds would move Carrier but that is indeed the recent intel (Marek).

Adding, as opposed to upgrading creates the depth that we require.

I don’t want to move Ceci and bring in Carrier, I want to add Carrier to the current 6D creating a better top 6 and real depth.

I think its do-able but they can only get one piece that is more than a Dowd type AAV.

Mayan Oil

??? All the older comments today have disappeared?

Mayan Oil

Whassup wit dat?

Gerta Rauss

We’ve seen this before, granted, the site has been running smoothly for several months now

These things happen I guess

Thanks to those in the background that have got today’s post back up with minimal disruptions (Ryan and LT)

defmn

This is so that whatever happens on Friday you can claim that you predicted it on today’s thread just before it disappeared.

It’s a feature – not a bug. 🥸

Elgin R

Ha Ha Ha – absolutely!

judgedrude
Reja

Winston Smith is just following orders.

PokeCheck

Maybe we can use the 2025 1st to dump WordPress on another organization.

Scungilli Slushy

Well I’m not posting Power Wins again!

That takes too long when one has other things they should be doing!

Janus

@reporterchris
The Seattle Kraken are still working through their trade options while holding Alex Wennberg out of tonight’s game as a precaution. The NYR and COL are among the teams who have shown interest in Wennberg.

3C?

Cap hit $4.5 million…expiring contract.

OriginalPouzar

He’s played a TON of time vs. elites this season and done well.

My gut says he more of a check-down if Henrique doesn’t work – both are lefties so not quite ideal.

Gerta Rauss

I don’t know if Wennberg is a fit but it’s clear this morning that SEA has decided it’s a seller and that puts Eberle as a possibility for the Oilers

hunter1909

Prefer to let sleeping dogs lie and let this and other ex player’s stay wherever they are.

OriginalPouzar

I wasn’t really interested in Eberle until Saturday afternoon when he looked fantastic, like prime Eberle. Not sure if he can still bring that game nightly at his age (33 I think).