Daum’s Falcons

Rob Daum is a qualified pro hockey coach and he took over the Falcons around Valentine’s Day. I thought it might be an idea to post each player’s numbers under the new AHL coach (in context) to see if anyone broke loose from the crowd in an unexpected manner.

A couple of comments to begin the process. We know that Ryan Potulny, Rob Schremp and Ryan Stone were the likely offensive weapons up front and that the checking line was Colin McDonald, Tyler Spurgeon and Tim Sestito or thereabouts.

We also know that the young defenders (Peckham, Wild, Chorney) were getting the tougher minutes earlier in the season at the expense of older hands like Mathieu Roy and Bryan Young.

Let’s begin by listing the powerplay scorers for Daum after he took over in Springfield:

PP under Daum

  1. Potulny 28gp, 7-4-11
  2. Schremp 28gp, 1-7-8
  3. Wild 28gp, 1-7-8
  4. Stone 28gp, 1-5-6
  5. Chorney 22gp, 1-5-6
  6. Roy 17gp, 0-3-3
  7. Eberle 9gp, 1-2-3
  8. Jacques 3gp, 1-1-2
  9. O’Marra 23gp, 0-1-1
  10. Gabinet 23gp, 0-1-1
  11. Trukhno 22gp, 1-0-1
  12. Brule 11gp, 1-0-1

Daum clearly liked the top 5 listed here, in fact that was probably the #1 unit for all of the games until Chorney’s recall. Later in the campaign, he seems to have added Roy (possibly when Chorney got the call) and we see Eberle had some impact in his 9 games.

PK under Daum

  1. McDonald 28gp, 1-1-2
  2. O’Marra 23gp, 0-1-1
  3. Paukovich 17gp, 1-0-1
  4. Brule 11gp, 1-0-1
  5. Stamoulis 6gp, 0-1-1

This isn’t interesting for the offense but as an indicator of the names Daum called upon when shorthanded. McDonald’s two points are a tell: he was one of the top 2 forwards (or the luckiest man on earth) in these games, and I suspect Brule would have been the other top choice. Stone is a guy one would expect might have been in the top 4 but that’s me filling in the blanks instead of reading the math.

Daum’s Falcons at EVs (F)

  1. Stone 28gp, 5-11-16 -1
  2. Potulny 28gp, 9-6-15 -2
  3. McDonald 28gp, 4-6-10 -5
  4. Trukhno 22gp, 1-5-6 -4
  5. Eberle 9gp, 2-4-6 -5
  6. Schremp 28gp, 0-4-4 -16
  7. G Lefebvre 21gp, 1-3-4 -8
  8. Sestito 13gp, 2-2-4 -5
  9. Paukovich 17gp, 3-1-4 -3
  10. O’Marra 23gp, 0-3-3 -6
  11. Brule 11gp, 0-3-3 -5
  12. Spurgeon 21gp, 1-1-2 -5
  13. Urquhart 8gp, 1-0-1 -2
  14. Goulet 3gp, 0-1-1 E
  15. Czuy 2gp, 0-1-1 E
  16. Huddy 2gp, 0-1-1 +1

A couple of quick notes. If a player didn’t score at EVs then he’s not listed, so JF Jacques doesn’t appear despite his PP success. The surprise name in the top 6 scoring forwards is Colin McDonald, and one suspects he may have been moved to a more offensive line (I believe Trukhno was hurt/ineffective and Lerg disappeared during this period). Eberle was playing with skilled men but that’s a nice number no matter how you look at it. Schremp was beyond awful, that -16 is impossible based on the other F’s +/- in the same number of games. I imagine the line that was bleeding every night was the one he was on, and despite the PP numbers over the period Sugartits can’t dance at EVs in the AHL based on this snapshot (three years into his AHL career. He’s the hockey equivalent of “Blind Man in the Bleachers” in terms of bad storyline). Lefebvre and Paukovich seem to have moved up the depth chart under Daum as well. One imagines the top 3 on this list would get good reviews from Daum when the new coach calls his cell this summer.

Daum’s Falcons at EVs (D)

  1. Young 28gp, 3-3-6 +5
  2. Wild 28gp, 1-3-4 -13
  3. Gabinet 23gp, 1-2-3 -12
  4. Chorney 22gp, 1-2-3 -9
  5. Bina 21gp, 1-2-3 -10
  6. Bisaillon 4gp, 1-0-1 -3
  7. Constant 3gp, 0-1-1 +4

I wish Roy had scored because I want to talk about him and Bryan Young. It looked to me all season like one of the problems is that they had way too many young D (Chorney, Wild, Bisaillon, Bina) and you can’t bring that many along at the same time. It looks like Daum used Young, Roy and maybe Gabinet to add experience until Jake Taylor returned to the lineup. Young’s plus minus is as ridiculous as Schremp’s in this context, except at the other end of the scale.

Dubnyk’s SP has improved (.908) under Daum; he was .905 when the new coach took over.

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42 Responses to "Daum’s Falcons"

  1. doritogrande says:

    Putting the players in this light, one thing jumps out at me. Bryan Young deserves a second NHL two-way contract.

    Pretty solid analysis. McDonald is RFA this season I believe. Has he produced enough in your eyes to earn that second NHL contract? Or does he get replaced on the NHL-list by Chris Vande-Velde?

  2. Lowetide says:

    Dorito: Among the RFA’s, I’d bring back Reddox (major league roster currently), Potulny, Stone, Brule, Dubnyk, McDonald, Spurgeon, Bisaillon and Young.

    I’d walk Schremp, Roy, Goulet and Rolfs, unless they can trade Schremp but that’s unlikely. Roy is a guy who has value but it’s unlikely he’ll resign with a team that inked him to a one-way for two years and still kept him in the minors for most of it.

  3. doritogrande says:

    Completely forgot Dubnyk was RFA. Has it already been three years of development?

    At least Schwartz hasn’t been any great shakes either. Sort of softens the blow a bit.

    But, given the season Potulny had, do you think he deserves/demands a one-way from the team? I think he may indeed deserve one over say, Liam Reddox. He’s bigger, more offensive upside and has Reddox’s versatility. To me, that’s a no-brainer.

  4. Lowetide says:

    Potulny (imo) has a real nice chance here because a new coach is probably going to keep a skill forward at the end of the roster along with MacIntyre.

    Reddox had a bad day when MacT got canned because he needed more time and a patient coach. The next guy has no such leeway, class is finished and school’s out beginning in fall.

  5. doritogrande says:

    Man, why you gotta go talking about school? 9AM exam tomorrow.

    Damn. Guess it’s back to studying. Unless you know how to differentiate a monomeric from a tetrameric hemoglobin protein?

  6. Boondock says:

    I imagine the line that was bleeding every night was the one he was on, and despite the PP numbers over the period Sugartits can’t dance at EVs in the AHL based on this snapshot. Unfortunately, Eberle’s number prorated over the same 28 games would be the same as Schremp’s, which takes some of the shine of his stint.

  7. Hemsky is a gangsta says:

    Hey Dennis…what are the scoring chances in the ANA-SJ series

  8. Jonathan Willis says:

    Bryan Young ranked 9th in QualComp at the end of the season. That’s ninth among defensemen.

    Even with the defense in pieces (R.J. Anderson, Dinos Stamoulis, as well as Gabinet and Maslonka were playing by the end of the year), Young wasn’t playing tough minutes.

    That tells us something about him, IMO. Something bad.

  9. HBomb says:

    Hindsight being what it is, would anyone here have complained at the time if the Oilers had given up the 25th overall in addition to the 14th overall to move up 2-3 spots and snag the guy they REALLY wanted in 2004, one Drew Stafford?

    It wouldn’t have looked too bad, methinks…other than the optics of giving up WAY more to move up a couple spots than they got to drop down five spots the previous year.

  10. DBO says:

    I think daum should definitey be back as the AHL head coach next er. Let him have a full season to wrok with the players. it also allows the Oil to grade him over the full year. having him in the minors for a few seasons gives us an insurance policy if the coach we hire doesn’t pan out.

    as for those prospects, i hope Potulny get sthe call al lyear. he deserves it. Also, i’d like to see what Stone could do since it sounds like he plays a physical style while still having some decent ability. Potulny with Stone and Stortini is a 4th line I wouldn’t be upset to see.

  11. Schitzo says:

    Unfortunately, Eberle’s number prorated over the same 28 games would be the same as Schremp’s, which takes some of the shine of his stint..

    I’d think that can mostly be waved away as the difference between “first 9 games against men twice his size” and “should really be better by now, goddamnit”

  12. Schitzo says:

    Holy Jesus, HBomb. Can you imagine the optics if he would have busted? Blew two first rounders to draft the trainer’s nephew, while the Hockey Jesus was still on the board?

  13. Lord Bob says:

    I think that Schremp is just bored with the AHL. Call him up so he can dominate already!

    More seriously, the numbers that leap out to me on that list belong to Ryan Stone and Bryan Young. I didn’t rate Stone at all and thought that trading an actual NHL player in Mathieu Garon for him was absolute madness. I still think that. But Stone is showing a couple things in the AHL for a huge fourth-line type, and I’d be encouraged to see him get a trial as the 4C.

    And Young is just… well. There’s a lot of good luck in that number, of course. A defenseman can’t have a plus/minus that much better than anyone else’s if the dice aren’t rolling his way. But still. There’s always room in the NHL for a huge, intelligent defenseman who can play fifteen minutes a night and not die. Cory Cross had an awfully long career being that guy.

  14. hunter1909 says:

    Brule, O’Marra, Pouliot, and others who I can’t remember – great prospects once upon a time who thanks to getting injured are just about fucking useless to the Oilers in any meaningful way.

    The jump up to the pros seems insurmountable for any top prospect, once they’re an Oilers prospect.

  15. Alice says:

    /The jump up to the pros seems insurmountable for any top prospect, once they’re an Oilers prospect./

    Your notion of ‘top prospect’ is cutting a pretty wide swath. If your draft number is in single digits, well ok. If you’re a mid-late first-rounder then lets be fair and just call that a prospect. The point is well-taken – maybe better, in fact – without the hyperbole.

  16. Alice says:

    Whoops, Brule went 6th – but he wasn’t entirely our foul-up.

  17. Sean says:

    It looked to me all season like one of the problems is that they had way too many young insert position here and you can’t bring that many along at the same timeSounds familiar

    Good numbers by Eberle despite the heavy minus number. His line was on for almost 2 goals a game on EV. I’d expect to see him in the AHL for a year to develop his overall game. Unless of course he is the real deal.

  18. quain says:

    Italics html is busted, use < br> < br> after the < /i> (no spaces) and it'll be fine.

  19. oilerdago says:

    Sean, Eberle’s choice next year is another year of juniors or the NHL – he can’t go to the AHL because of his age.

    Stone to me looks like a useful call-up for next season when you have injuries.

    One thing on Brule’s numbers this year has been all the injuries. I’m wondering if the fact that he try’s to play a physical game as a smaller guy contributes or if it was just something else.

    I’d like to see Potulny get a chance next year, but this team has to package a bunch of other guys ahead of him to make room for him.

    Or do Potulny’s numbers make him more attractive in a trade than some of the other guys on the NHL roster? Right now the trade value of several of the guys many of us would like to see is not what we all think.

  20. Mr DeBakey says:

    I'd say Potulny, Stone, McDonald, Lefebvre & Peckham are the only Falcons who look like possible NHLers for next season.

    The surprise name in the top 6 scoring forwards is Colin McDonald, and one suspects he may have been moved to a more offensive line.
    .
    Daum had Mcdonald & Paukovich playing as big, forechecking tough-minutes line and they were having success. Paukovich got hurt though.

    There’s always room in the NHL for a huge, intelligent defenseman.
    .
    Young isn’t huge, but very physical – Height 6.01 — Weight 190 — Shoots R.
    A Young Steve Staios if you will

    at the end of the roster along with MacIntyre.
    .
    I’m hoping that with more muscle in the Top 6,
    the Oilers can get by without MacIntyre next season.

    Among the RFA’s, I’d bring back Reddox (major league roster currently), Potulny, Stone, Brule, Dubnyk, McDonald, Spurgeon, Bisaillon and Young. .
    That’s probably too many.
    It depends how many of
    Vande Velde, Petry, Kytnar, Nash & Eberle play pro next year.
    [sounds a bit like a 60s folk-rock band].

    Plus there are guys like Lefebvre and Perugini.
    Bates had a good year in Stockton.
    And then there are free agents – for instance Maxime Lacroix had a great year in the ECHL

  21. Lord Bob says:

    Quite so, Mr. Debakey – I blame the fact that it’s the morning for my memory issues!

  22. Doogie2K says:

    Unless you know how to differentiate a monomeric from a tetrameric hemoglobin protein?

    One has one subunit and one has four? (Sorry, only being a bit of a smartass; all I know about Hb is that it has four subunits and that they’re different in fetuses than the rest of us, for different oxygen affinity needs.)

    Eberle’s choice next year is another year of juniors or the NHL – he can’t go to the AHL because of his age.

    Stupid fucking rule. Seriously, each team needs to be allowed one exemption for developmental reasons.

  23. Scott says:

    There’s always room in the NHL for a huge, intelligent defenseman who can play fifteen minutes a night and not die.

    Is it really necessary to pick on Matthieu Roy?

  24. Sean says:

    Eberle’s choice next year is another year of juniors or the NHL – he can’t go to the AHL because of his age.
    I agree with Doogie. What a waste. Wonder if teams will start using Sweden as a development option. Eberle’s greatest assest is his game smarts and he’s already lapped the junior competition.

  25. geowal says:

    at the end of the roster along with MacIntyre.
    .
    I’m hoping that with more muscle in the Top 6,
    the Oilers can get by without MacIntyre next season
    .

    Especially given what the implications of implemented rules regarding “pre-planned” fights may be.
    How much use is Mcintyre if he can only participate in more spontaneous fights?
    Mind you we wouldn’t care much about 1 game suspensions here and there.

  26. hunter1909 says:

    Sweden sounds like a great place to stuff poor skaters like Schremp, or tweeners like Eberle.

    And with the absolute hotness of Swedish women, well, enough said.

  27. kris says:

    Does Brule have some kind of terrible personal problems?

    I get that not every guy with Brule’s pedigree makes it the NHL. But how many guys with his pedigree fall apart this big at the AHL level.

    I mean Bonsignore blew chunks and was a top 4 pick, but he didn’t have Brule’s pedigree.

  28. Ribs says:

    Brule was injured during the games in question so it explains some things.

  29. quain says:

    I agree with Doogie. What a waste. Wonder if teams will start using Sweden as a development option. Eberle’s greatest assest is his game smarts and he’s already lapped the junior competition.

    I’d argue that a lot of Eberle’s flaws are fixable regardless of where he spends his time playing hockey. He needs to get bigger, he needs to become a better skater, and he needs to play better in his own end. Playing in the AHL would help hammer that point home when he’s getting killed every night, but there is still a lot of development room in junior if he can keep himself from becoming complacent.

  30. hunter1909 says:

    Brule sounds either totally injury prone, or else he’s constantly getting rushed back into the front line before he’s fully recovered.

    Given the fact he’s still technically a kid, it sounds like he could use a season over in Sweden also.

    Oh bejezus, the double entendre when stapled to my last post.

  31. Icecastles says:

    Awesome avatar, Ribs! It took me a second, then I got it and though, “awesome!” Then I saw it belonged to your name and thought “double awesome!”

  32. Ribs says:

    Ha, thanks Icey. I figured I should slap something together one of these days.

  33. bookie says:

    Any commments on how the team played after Daum took over (as opposed to individual players)?

    Can we get a Daum in a Box post LT?

  34. quain says:

    Pre-Daum:
    16-27-7, 39PTS 50GP .780/GP

    Post-Daum:
    8-17-5, 21PTS 30GP .700/GP

    I think you could make a case he got ruined by injuries and call-ups and just complete tank jobs by certain thonged players, but still nothing to really see there.

  35. bookie says:

    I think you could make a case he got ruined by injuries and call-ups and just complete tank jobs by certain thonged players, but still nothing to really see there.My belief is that when a coach comes in late, you have to give him at least part of the next season before you have any ideas of where things are at. However, had he of torn it up and turned the team around,then perhaps it would be a good sign.

  36. bookie says:

    Yes Ribs – Great Job on the avatar. Someone once told me that I was drinking the Oiler’s Kool Aid so…, but soon enough I need to update!

  37. Ribs says:

    Thanks, bookie. Great job on yours as well….OH YEA!

  38. Nelson88 says:

    Quain,

    Has anyone compiled the GF v GA and SF v SA pre and post Daum? I haven’t but it certainly seemed that the Falcons were a great deal more competitive in the later half of the season?

  39. Bob Stauffer says:

    Anybody who does not recognize that the Falcons improved in the final third of the season needs to look at the facts.
    Here’s some numbers to chew on.
    The Falcons had lost 11 straight before Daum got there and had won just seven games in their previous 35 games (7-24-4).
    Daum went 8-16-5 in Springfield and of 16 regulation losses 13 were either one goal losses or two with an empty netter.
    The PP and PK numbers went up with Daum.
    The PP with Truitt was at 14%, with Daum it was 18%.
    The PK with Truitt was at 80%, and with Daum it was at 86%.
    Now here’s the catch; Truitt had the benefit of having Matty Roy, Jake Taylor (AHL veteran), Theo Peckham and Taylor Chorney for large portions of his stint on the back end.
    None of those guys finished the season with the Falcons as Roy and Taylor were hurt and Peckham and Chorney got re-called.
    Most nights the Falcons played with what amounted to four ECHL defenceman for the final 30 or so games.

  40. Dennis says:

    Just a couple of things to throw out there.

    - 51 might get a stay of excution under a new guy or maybe he’s out the door. I’m not sure if they’ll keep him on in the 3 hole, bump him to the 4th altogether or perhaps just let him loose. So, what does this mean for Stone? I’ve got a feeling we’re gonna be way bigger come 2010 so it would make sense to have a 22-Stone-46 4th line. And it would make a lot of sense if he can kill penalties and win a draw. Do we know anything about him in this regard?

    -Speaking of 22, I was watching the B’s last night and in particular, Byron Bitz. Bitz is taller than 22 and he’s a bit lighter but he doesn’t play stiff like does Jacques. 22′s ‘A’ numbers trump those of the former Big Red product but i found myself thinking that Bitz is gonna be a guy who’s a much better pro than 22.

    - Brule’s a fellow who really needs to either steel himself to a bottom six role or he’s gonna have to go somewhere else and start over for the second time in two years. There’s zero fucking chance that he plays with either 10/89 so the guy’s gonna have to crash, bang and kill penalties and he didn’t strike me as the kind of guy who can do that.

  41. Nelson88 says:

    Bob,

    Welcome and thanks for making the point in more depth than I could have hoped for.

    Thoughts on whether Daum has a realistic chance to coach the Oil next year?

  42. Stormwatch says:

    Here’s some numbers to chew on.
    The Falcons had lost 11 straight before Daum got there
    __
    Jan 19 Mon.. Lowell W 3-1
    Jan 23 Fri.. Worcester OTL 3-4
    Jan 24 Sat.. Providence L 1-3
    Jan 30 Fri.. Worcester L 1-3
    Jan 31 Sat.. Binghamton L 2-4
    Feb 06 Fri.. Lowell L 2-4
    Feb 07 Sat.. Hartford L 2-3
    Feb 08 Sun.. Binghamton L 1-2
    Feb 11 Wed.. Manchester L 2-5

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