Desjardins’ NHLE for AHL (Forwards)

The Springfield Falcons were not a very good team this season, but there were some impressive individual performances. We can see part of the picture with Desjardins’ NHL equivalencies. Gabriel really hones in on the highest minor league with specific numbers for each player based on their age (the idea being your third AHL season should be more impressive than the first one).

Here are the 2008-09 NHLE’s, forwards per 82 games played:

  1. Jordan Eberle (18) 13-27-40*
  2. Ryan Potulny (23) 18-12-30
  3. JF Jacques (23) 5-20-25
  4. Liam Reddox (22) 14-11-24**
  5. Gilbert Brule (21) 13-11-24
  6. Ryan Stone (23) 7-17-24
  7. Rob Schremp (22) 3-20-23
  8. Slava Trukhno (21) 5-13-18
  9. Bryan Lerg (22) 8-8-16**
  10. Charles Linglet (26) 4-8-12
  11. Tyler Spurgeon (22) 3-8-11**
  12. Colin McDonald (23) 4-6-10**
  13. Shane Willis (31) 3-7-10
  14. Stephane Goulet (22) 2-7-9
  15. Geoff Paukovich (22) 4-4-8
  16. Derek Bekar (32) 5-2-7
  17. Carl Corazzini (29) 3-4-7**
  18. Ryan O’Marra (21) 1-5-6
  19. Cory Urquhart (23) 2-3-5
  20. Ryan Huddy (25) 0-5-5
  21. Tim Sestito (24) 3-1-4**
  22. Guillaume Lefebvre (27) 1-3-4
  23. Hans Benson (24) 0-1-1

*It’s important to note this is a 9-game glimpse. I used Gabriel’s 20-year old equivalency for Eberle’s progression. I also “filled in the blanks” for Desjardins’ AHL numbers for age 27+ by moving his number along a line.
**These are the men who did more heavy lifting based on Jonathan Willis’ fine AHL toughness of minutes post.

A few conclusions:

  • We can’t trust Eberle’s number. It’s a nice indicator but should he be hired to play 80 AHL games his flaws may be more obvious than they appear to be with this short look.
  • Ryan Potulny is clearly the best available minor leaguer amongst the forwards on the minor league roster. The new coach is going to be looking for size and toughness, but if there’s room for skill he would be the best available option from the Falcons.
  • JF Jacques is still young enough to have a career and continues to put up interesting minor league numbers. He’s a guy I’d bet on (that should come as no surprise) to have a real good chance with the new coach this fall.
  • Liam Reddox is going to have a hard time this fall because of his size, but based on NHLE’s and the fact he did some heavy lifting this would appear to be at least a fringe NHLer for some time to come.
  • Gilbert Brule didn’t light up minor league pitching but is still young enough to have a career. I imagine he’ll make a stronger bid for the big club at TC, he’s certainly in the mix.
  • Ryan Stone had a nice run after coming over and has some things that the new coach might find useful. The Oilers also have needs that suit his (and Jacques’) resume very well. A player to watch moving forward.
  • Rob Schremp has been stepped over by so many prospects he has athlete’s scalp.
  • Slava Trukhno has not progressed as a pro hockey player. He’ll need a big AHL season to establish himself again as a legit prospect.
  • Bryan Lerg didn’t have a good season and it may cost him his first NHL organization.
  • Tyler Spurgeon played on the checking line and had a few things going on. He’s still alive as a prospect and has outlasted a few higher picks and is likely to be retained this fall over the club’s first rounder from his draft year.
  • Colin McDonald had a decent run at the end of the season and did play some of the tougher minutes for the Falcons so might be one of those guys who makes it despite playing on the fringes of prospect status for a few years. His chances (as it is with all players of this type) of becoming an NHL regular are not high. Fernando Pisani had almost identical numbers in the AHL at the same age but was +2 on a team that had forwards at -20, -19 and -17. McDonald was -8 on a team that had forwards at -26, -14 and -13. He’s from the same family, but has a lot to prove before we can compare him to St. Fernando.

If I were a betting man, the four forwards who would get my money (in terms of having a major league career) would be Eberle, Potulny, Reddox and Jacques.

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15 Responses to "Desjardins’ NHLE for AHL (Forwards)"

  1. jon k says:

    Potulny really had a very impressive goal-scoring campaign. In terms of goals/game he came out third or fourth in the AHL. I think he’ll get a good look at camp.

    I think it’s unfortunate but Brule may force his way onto the roster by virtue of pedigree. The guy’s projection right now is looking like Moreau but with extremely porous defensive ability. Might not ever be a useful NHLer.

    Reddox had some extremely impressive forechecking in the first Calgary game and it resulted in some offensive possession because we had a second forechecker instituted. You can see how he’d thrive at a lower level of competition.

    Overall though, with at least two or three guys making a case for a roster spot one way or another I still think we will see more assets going away this summer than coming back.

    On a semi-related note the circus in Tampa continues as their GM Lawton has stated that the second overall pick is up for grabs for a young stud defenseman. It’s a good opportunity for the Oilers given our assets, though from a TB perspective it makes little sense. At 2nd overall they can draft the best defenseman to come through the first round since Pronger.

  2. Black Gold says:

    Side note, I kinda get the impression Lemaire isn’t looking for another job in coaching..

    Also, looks like MacT will be golfing at home, not Switzerland.

  3. Lowetide says:

    I can’t imagine Lemaire being as effective in another capacity.

  4. B.C.B. says:

    I was hoping more from Brian Lerg. As an undrafted collage player, I don’t know if his season was as bad as it seems: he is playing the tough minutes, he is undersized but so is Reddox, and his scoring is only slightly worst then Trukho (and only one year older). If he gets another shot the AHL, with the Oilers and a better coach, I think there is something still there (maybe just a third/fourth liner, but that is what we are hoping for).

    Jon k: if Tampa gets the second overall pick and trades it for a stud dman, without picking Hedman, then the Oiler should definitely be in the mix. I’d trade Gilbert plus parts for Hedman plus parts. I’d just hope we get the better parts, but since they will be looking for small contracts, I’d think that be fine with them: may Schremp or 2nd rounder on our side, and either Prospal or Halpern (salary dumps). on their side. Both of those center have a over 50% Faceoff %. think of having
    Vis – Grebs
    Souray – Smid
    Staios/Vet – Hedman
    That looks pretty good, and saves us money (as Hedman is cheaper then Gilbert).

  5. doritogrande says:

    On a semi-related note the circus in Tampa continues as their GM Lawton has stated that the second overall pick is up for grabs for a young stud defenseman.

    Using our own examples, are we talking about an established young stud like Grebeshkov, or a younger stud like say Petry? Either or, I’d be listening intently for a shot at Hedman.

    That they left Potulny in the minors this year is a bit surprising. He was the only bright spot for the Falcons forwards. I can understand if they kept him down to appease the Springfield fans after that very public apology from their head honcho, but isn’t that a bit of a stunt in his career development? Does he really bring less to the table than Liam Reddox, who was waiver exempt?

    I think he’d be great for the bottom two lines next season. In limited viewings this season he showed he can drive the offense in a general forward direction, play multiple roles and get his hands dirty, unlike a certain sacrificial hockey jesus we once employed.

    Agreed on Trukhno, I expected better things from him. But not everyone makes the grade at the NHL level.

  6. Black Gold says:

    BCB, you forgot to include Staios and Moreau in that deal. :)

    I would be happy to see Jacques and Potulny on the team next year.. Jacques has another year of $.5M but Potulny gets a new contract. ( It’ll be interesting to see what his new dollar value is going to look like.. Mediocre numbers against against mediocre opponents with mediocre linemates. Is $750k a good contract for him? I could see him outperforming that in the NHL.

  7. jon k says:

    If indeed Tampa is listening to offers the price is going to be very steep.

    I’d imagine the Oilers bid would have to start with something like Gilbert, Cogliano/Gagner, our 1st and Jeff Petry/Taylor Chorney.

    Even then, I don’t know if they can compete with what some other teams might offer.

  8. Jonathan Willis says:

    RE: Lemaire – I didn’t read that as Lemaire being uninterested in coaching, I read that as him being uninterested in coaching in Minnesota.

  9. B.C.B. says:

    BG: I was assuming that TB would not want to pick up too much salary.

    Jon K: I don’t thin you would need to include Cogs or Gags in that deal to get it done. I might have undersold Hedman (but it is not a lock they have the second overall yet), so what about this
    Gilbert + Schremp + another cheap Bubble boy in the AHL + our 1st
    2nd overall + Halpern/Propsal
    (last year it cost the Leafs a 2nd and 3rd to move up to stops, I think that Gilbert and cheap bubble boy are worth more then about 6 or 7 spots, and schremp for Halpern/Prospal gets rid of their salary problems and our Schremp problem).

  10. Lowetide says:

    What are the recent draft day deals that include a #10 overall plus whatever for a #2?

  11. B.C.B. says:

    LT, after a quick look at, I could not find any big jumps in the top ten draft order since 2000, I think the only things to go on are the Sedin Trades, and TO Schenn deal.

  12. Fake Craig McTavish says:

    B.C.B. said…
    LT, after a quick look at, I could not find any big jumps in the top ten draft order since 2000, I think the only things to go on are the Sedin Trades, and TO Schenn deal.

    You’ll notice who has his fingerprints on both of those deals.

    I have a suspicion Burke will pull out all the stops to try and land Tavares.

    Following the lottery, Toronto could be picking as high as #2 (small chance) but likely no worse than #7. Trading his pick ++might tempt the Islanders.

  13. Lowetide says:

    Burke could trade up to #2 and then convince the Islanders to select Hedman. Snow seems a little smarter than that, but Hedman may be a better player (I have no idea) and the Islanders ownership are a little crazy.

  14. jon k says:

    I don’t think Burke is going to make a move up the draft unless he thinks Schenn is going to go before 7, which he shouldn’t.

    To clarify my position, I don’t think the 2nd overall pick is going anywhere. If it does though, I suspect we’ll see two very high picks (like a 1st and 2nd) going to Tampa plus the Dman they want, plus a good prospect or sophomore (Like Gagner or Cogliano).

    BCB: I think you’re drastically undervaluing the cost of moving up at the draft.

    Recent years have seen the price of moving one or two spots up in the draft as usually a high first and a high second. And none of those circumstances involved moving into the top 5, let alone the top 3. The cost of a Hedman or Tavares at the draft would be exceptional in my opinion.

  15. Scott says:

    As a reference for draft trades, Lowe had all but sealed:

    6th + 30th <-> 4th
    4th + 15th <-> 2nd

    It gets very expensive at the top.

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