Desjardins NHLE for AHL (The Blue)

Not only is it becoming fairly obvious that Theo Peckham is a better prospect than the 3 college boys (Chorney, Petry and Wild), it’s also at this point an open question as to which of the 4 will deliver more offensively in the show.

Theo Peckham is continuing to develop as a hockey player. He has a good variety of skills, he’s tough, has a clue and desire. It’s an extremely effective combination, to the point that one could make a reasonable argument that he is the de facto #1 prospect in the organization.

Here are the Desjardins’ NHL equivalencies for the Springfield blueline (per 82gp):

  1. Theo Peckham (20) 5-11-16
  2. Sebastien Bisaillon (21) 6-9-15
  3. Taylor Chorney (21) 3-9-12
  4. Cody Wild (21) 3-9-12
  5. Mathieu Roy (25) 1-7-8
  6. Bryan Young (22) 2-4-6
  7. Robbie Bina (25) 1-5-6
  8. Mike Gabinet (26) 1-4-5

Later this spring I’ll grab the EV and PP numbers for each and suspect that the gap between Peckham and Chorney will increase. Defensively Peckham is well ahead of Chorney at this time, and if the offensive gap is minimal then it’s completely reasonable to assume Peckham is the better man moving forward. The thing we need to consider is that this was Chorney’s (and really Wild’s) first season in pro hockey, so we’re comparing apples and oranges when we discuss Peckham.

On other fronts, Bisaillon remains a prospect of interest (despite the trips to Stockton) and Mathieu Roy played 59 games without injury. Finally, here are the plus minus numbers (with GP) for the 8D listed above:

  1. Bisaillon -1 (31gp)
  2. Young -2 (63gp)
  3. Peckham -7 (47gp)
  4. Gabinet -13 (45gp)
  5. Wild -14 (49gp)
  6. Bina -18 (37gp)
  7. Roy -20 (59gp)
  8. Chorney -29 (68gp)

When Jonathan Willis did his AHL toughness of minutes post midway through the season, he had the players listed above ranked as follows:

  1. Theo Peckham: 1.834
  2. Cody Wild: 1.812
  3. Taylor Chorney: 1.693
  4. Robbie Bina: 1.651
  5. Mathieu Roy: 1.608
  6. Bryan Young: 1.476
  7. Sebastien Bisaillon: 1.309
  8. Mike Gabinet: 1.130

Based on the information available to us, Theo Peckham is clearly the pick of the litter among the Springfield blue.

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31 Responses to "Desjardins NHLE for AHL (The Blue)"

  1. Jonathan Willis says:

    In all honesty, Theo Peckham may be the best prospect currently in the Oilers’ system.

    He’s made a believer of me this season.

    And as a side note, I’m working on the final QualComp tally for the Falcons – should be up in the next few days.

  2. PDO says:

    Is Chorney officially trade bait? Spent too long in College?

    And how has Bissalaphebet recovered from his rather gruesome injury?

  3. doritogrande says:

    In all honesty, Theo Peckham may be the best prospect currently in the Oilers’ system.

    I’ll agree with you on the basis of a prospect having an NHL career of some ability. But what really is the upside for Peckham? If he tracks out to a 4-5 defenseman, does he get passed on the prospect pipeline by a forward projecting to be a 2-line scorer like Eberle?

    My real question is this: How high exactly is Peckham’s ceiling? He’s got the mean streak, but mean only gets you so far. He’s got to be a good passer, superb positionally and know when to pinch to be an effective top-4 guy if he brings little offense to the table.

    Are we looking at a Steve Staios two-way type, an Anton Volchenkov shutdown type, or Jason Strudwick mean streak with no offense?

  4. PDO says:

    DG:

    What is Smid’s upside?

    Because Peckham has looked better than most rookie D ever do, 21 years old or not.

    I’d go as far to say he’s looked better than Smid EVER did at the same age… and Smid had a lot more experience against quality at that point.

    Upside?

    Regehr with a shade more offense doesn’t seem impossible if he stays healthy and develops to his potential.

  5. Jonathan Willis says:

    DG: I think Peckham will likely be a top-four guy.

  6. Quinn says:

    Ahhh, I see that really you were waiting for the season to end to get those pesky game day threads out of the way to spend your time with your true passion: evaluating prospects! ~

    Seriously, Peckham looked good. Good enough to give hope that we have a strong defensive prospect to fill any holes that may open up by trade.

    PDO – are you really talking Regehr category? I think he is in the top 5 shutdown men in the league. If Peckham is headed that way then it is a real feather in the bonnet of the draft system.

  7. PDO says:

    Quinn:

    Absolutely.

    And I think that highly of Regehr as well.

    Seriously, when is the last time you can think of a rookie D looking this good? Yes, it was a small sample, and yes, he’s 21, and yes, it was against the softs…

    Fact is, he looked like he belonged. Not many 21 year old D can say that… I think he’s very close to being able to use the word “special” on.

  8. Lord Bob says:

    Love the picture. Nice to see theCaptainethanmoreau in his natural habitat.

  9. Traktor says:

    Peckham has the Lucic factor and that’s what makes him a keeper.

    Players with that kind of toughness usually have no brains or ability but Peckham can play the game.

    I was really impressed with his game when he paired up with Chorney. You could see that he took it upon himself to anchor the pairing and make things easy for Chorney.

    #1 prospect isn’t a stretch at all.

  10. Black Gold says:

    Bissalaphebet
    Haha, that put a smile on my face.

  11. PDO says:

    Black Gold:

    No Joke,

    Best player I ever played with had the last name:

    Gwarlzajyd.

    Or something similar. Nobody could figure out how to pronounce it, or for that matter spell it. As such, his nickname became alphabet, and I’ve gone with it for anyone with a ridiculous name since.

    You’re welcome though :D

  12. oilerdago says:

    Been interesting to see Peckham develop. Want to say when he was first evaluated, people were thinking the highest he might be is a 5/6.

    Now I tend to agree with others – he is probably our top prospect – and that he could be a 3/4 when it’s all said and done (like what Mean Matt Greene has become).

    Just shows what happens with defensemen prospects when you don’t have to rush their development.

    He may be ahead of Smid at this point (at the same age), but I would not be rushing to get rid of him. Smid’s young, inexpensive and is a great option as a 5/6 d-man right now. Let’s make the most of him – especially given the cost of our top 4 right now.

  13. Quinn says:

    Dago,

    Can you imagine the punishment a set of forwards would face going up a Smid-Peckham pairing? The hits, the nastiness and the plain ol’ meanness of such a combo make me salivate. As a 5-6 pairing to start the year, I could easily see them move up the depth chart to take some more top minutes.

    Mmmm, hits…..

  14. kanadienkyle says:

    The two games Chorney got into looked a lot like his last season of college (the one where the wheels came off). Lots of standing around, getting caught out of position and very little physical play. All of this accented with a couple nice offensive plays that catch people’s attention.

  15. oilerdago says:

    Quinn: Exactly. A pair of defensemen who’ll be tough to play against is exactly what we need in that last pairing.

    All the more reason that you need to move Staios one way or another. Nothing personal, Staios has been a good mentor for Smid, but it’s time.

    And you keep Struds as a 7th or find another vet option who is just as cheap and maybe a little more dependable because one thing is for certain, it’s not realistic to expect Vis or Souray to go injury free and it helps to have some vet depth at a reasonable price (which Staios isn’t anymore).

    None of the other kids are anywhere close to ready.

  16. LMHF#1 says:

    Peckham looks just excellent on NHL ice; and to have him play an utterly flawless game as he did a couple ago was truly something to behold. This guy could be really good in about 3 years. I’d like to see him play a lot of games next year.

    The fact that his numbers also indicate this is just the cherry on top for me.

    I really hope Bisaillon gets another shot and a new approach from a different coach. He’s a talented guy, that’s for sure.

  17. LMHF#1 says:

    OD – Peckham’s already a better pincher, better with the puck, more responsibly physical and better positionally than Greene ever was.

    The Greene comparison will fade fast.

  18. oilerdago says:

    LMHF#1: That would be good if he can make us forget Greene. Again he was another player who was asked to take a lot of minutes in 06-07 that he was not ready for and paid a price. But now he's a solid shut-down d-man.

    Peckham learned lot's in his first call up (geting burned by Det & Pit) and when he came up for the later games, you could see he was making better decisions. He's still got learning to do, but he's very capable of stepping in next season.

    And Smid I think would be a good friend/mentor to him because it's all still fresh for him – having been asked to take on a lot of things early on.

    The two combined would make a lot of skaters think twice.

  19. Quinn says:

    Dago,

    The other nice thing would be that Smid would not have to carry someone around the ice like he did all this year, and could focus on his own game. I still think Smid has a ton of upside yet.

  20. DBO says:

    is anyone OK with Smid-Peckham as our 5/6 pairing going into next year? Whether we move Staios or one of our top 4 dmen for a top LW, it looks like that would be our last pairing, with someone like Strudwick as the 7th dman/14th forward. I’m OK with that pairing as long as we are building for 2010/11 as our run at the playoffs. IF we can jettison Staios (who I like, but his contract is a killer) and re-sign Grebeshkov for nearly the same money (like 2 years at $3 mill per), then we are young on the blueline if our 5/6 is Smid-Peckham. personally i really like what Peckham brings, and would be OK with Smid being moved and having Peckham slide into his spot paired with Staios (assuming we can’t move that contract).

  21. DBO says:

    Unrelated note, but was looking at our roster and the players ages, and it is interesting to think of where this team would be in 3 years (2011/12). Pretty much our whole team would be in the 25-28 yr old range, with only Horcoff (32), Souray and Vish (34) being older (since Moreau, Pisani and Staios would all be off the books). Adding some pieces this year and next towards 2011/12 would make me happy.
    Clowe 25 yrs old – would be 28
    Harding 24 – would be 27
    Dubinsky 22 – would be 25 (and the replacement for horcoff)
    And in the dreaming stage
    Bowmeester would be 27.

    if this management team wants to build a Detroit like juggernaught, building a team that enters their prime together allows us to be competitive for a long time, and we supplement that core group with some solid low priced vets. get it done tambellini, make us proud.

  22. LMHF#1 says:

    Take a risk on a vet with a higher potential upside season than Strudwick. Then I’m quite happy with Smid-Peckham.

    You do have Visnovsky-Souray-Gilbert-Grebeshkov eating some serious minutes.

  23. Steve says:

    All the more reason that you need to move Staios one way or another. Nothing personal, Staios has been a good mentor for Smid, but it’s time.

    Absolutely – if we keep the big 4, then salary notwithstanding there just isn’t room for Staios in our top 6.

    I don’t follow these things, but are there still teams that need to pick up salary to make it to the salary floor? I’d expect such a team to have a lot of young defense, and Staios has a pretty good reputation as a veteran mentor (and some leadership, apparently – he’s been an NHL captain, recall). Unlike Moreau, it might be possible to find somebody happy to take Staios (it might be possible to find somebody happy to take Moreau too, I suppose, but they’d be wrong).

    is anyone OK with Smid-Peckham as our 5/6 pairing going into next year?

    Yes, with a veteran 7th defenseman to come in when Peckham has stretches of playing like a 21 year old.

    This is predicated on us hanging on to all of the top 4, of course; move any of them and the situation changes dramatically.

  24. Scott says:

    I think that people are getting ahead of themselves a little bit with Peckham. The comparisons with Smid are kind of silly since his 21 y/o season was actually his second season in the NHL. Smid blew the doors off AHL pitching at 19. Peckham is doing it at 21. That Peckham looked better at 21 against the dregs than Smid did at 20 in a top four role shouldn’t be too surprising. Also, by my last count, Peckham was still getting outchanced at EV against the NHL dregs (admittedly he didn’t have the vaunt in front of him). I’m still not convinced he’ll be more than a rough and physical 5-6 guy which does have value. Traktor’s point about the “Lucic factor,” i.e. very physical and can play, is what will be what keeps the guy in the league for a lot of years.

  25. pboy says:

    MacT PC live on oilers.nhl.com right now.

  26. Coach pb9617 says:

    is anyone OK with Smid-Peckham as our 5/6 pairing going into next year? Whether we move Staios or one of our top 4 dmen for a top LW, it looks like that would be our last pairing, with someone like Strudwick as the 7th dman/14th forward. I’m OK with that pairing as long as we are building for 2010/11 as our run at the playoffs. IF we can jettison Staios (who I like, but his contract is a killer) and re-sign Grebeshkov for nearly the same money (like 2 years at $3 mill per), then we are young on the blueline if our 5/6 is Smid-Peckham. personally i really like what Peckham brings, and would be OK with Smid being moved and having Peckham slide into his spot paired with Staios (assuming we can’t move that contract).

    I’d rather have someone like Klesla, Montador, Vaananen, Melichar, or Malik at #7 and let Peckham season a bit.

  27. quain says:

    Don’t be too quick to elevate Peckham to sainthood just yet. None of the numbers behind him really suggest anything startling.

    He played the easiest opposition (with the worst teammates, in fairness) producing (31.30) Corsi/60 and (0.35) +/- per 60. He ranked higher than Smid and Strudwick in terms of +/- per 60, but had a stronger PDO number.

    Certainly not bad for a rookie called into duty, but if you’re penciling him in as your sixth defenseman you’re making a mistake. He’s probably no worse an option than Strudwick at 7th, but you’re going to do better with a cheap, steady veteran hand. Pushing kids down the depth chart whenever possible is almost always the best solution.

  28. Master Lok says:

    Agreed with quain. Peckham may be the next Greene, but I think comparisons to Regehr are waaaay early.

  29. Chris says:

    Peckham is showing well. To me he already seems farther along than Matt Greene was during his time here. Not that he’s not making some mistakes but for a young defensemen he has a good feel for the game and brings some of that “team toughness”.

    This team certainly could use a bit of that. Now if we could sign a Ryan Smyth clone and a younger, non-alcoholic version of Theo Fleury this team might actually compete and win some games.

  30. matt says:

    Peckham will get better. He works hard. I have no idea where his ceiling is – but I doubt that he will suddenly be a top 4. But a kid who can defend AND kick Claude Lemieux’s ass is an asset.

  31. Dennis says:

    In another thread I said i’d hoped that Peckham-Chorney could be a good 5-6 tandem by ’11.

    Then we’d have Smid as the 4 and we’ve already got a few guys signed or further along for the 1-3 holes.

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