Facts

With the season now completed, we can begin to pick at the bones and make our own decisions on players. I think it’s especially important since this season we can’t seem to agree on much. Every Oiler has a group of boosters and a group of detractors and despite the obvious (the world is not black and white, it is grey) surely there’s some middle ground.

Let’s begin by stealing a bunch of stuff from Gabriel Desjardins.

First, let’s make a list of 5×5 points per 60. These numbers are not perfect but give us some indication about the team’s top performers during the heart of each game.

5×5 Performance 08-09 (Forwards)

  1. Hemsky 2.08
  2. Pisani 1.81
  3. Stortini 1.76
  4. Penner 1.71
  5. Cogliano 1.69
  6. O’Sullivan 1.69
  7. Gagner 1.69
  8. Pouliot 1.67
  9. Brodziak 1.62
  10. Horcoff 1.59
  11. Moreau 1.50
  12. MacIntyre 1.43
  13. Reddox 1.43
  14. Kotalik 1.38
  15. Nilsson 1.22

To put these numbers into context, the NW division had a 11 forwards over 2.00/5×5 per 60 this season. The Flames had 5, Vancouver 4, Edmonton and Minnesota had 1 and Colorado had none. So the 2 playoff teams had at least one full line doing it, and the other teams were crumbly. I don’t think we should make too much of Colorado not having one, Ryan Smyth was pretty close.

Now, let’s list the “toughness of minutes” for Oilers forwards this season:

  1. Horcoff .04
  2. Moreau .01
  3. Pisani .01
  4. Hemsky .00
  5. Penner .00
  6. O’Sullivan -.02
  7. Nilsson -.03
  8. Reddox -.04
  9. Cogliano -.04
  10. Gagner -.04
  11. Pouliot -.06
  12. Kotalik -.06
  13. Brodziak -.07
  14. Stortini -.13
  15. MacIntyre -.14

So here we get some idea of context. Horcoff delivered about as much per hour on offense as Brodziak or Pouliot but he did it against much better pitching. One player faced Roy Halliday every night, the other faced the Washington Nationals. Among the soft parade people, Zach Stortini performed the best and Ales Kotalik should be ashamed of himself.

Next up, we have quality of linemates. If you’re doing the heavy lifting, who are you doing it with?

  1. Hemsky .26
  2. Horcoff .18
  3. Gagner .11
  4. Penner .11
  5. Nilsson .10
  6. Kotalik .01
  7. Nilsson -.03
  8. Cogliano -.03
  9. Pouliot -.03
  10. O’Sullivan -.04
  11. Moreau -.04
  12. Pisani -.07
  13. Stortini -.12
  14. Brodziak -.12
  15. MacIntyre -.32

Adding this element gives us a chance to view Fernando Pisani’s season in a different way. He performed well (against the team collective) at 5×5 and did some heavy work with minus help. Ethan Moreau should get some credit for the same thing (but to a lesser degree).

At some point I’ll add the area of the ice where each player picked up his spade and began to dig, which will further benefit Horcoff and redeem Brodziak to some extent. I don’t think there’s much help coming for Nilsson and Kotalik, though.*

*I’ve included O’Sullivan and Kotalik although most of their seasons were spent elsewhere.

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19 Responses to "Facts"

  1. vb says:

    Forgive the amateur question, but I figured that Horcoff and Hemsky played most of the season together. How is it possible for their rates to be so much different? Maybe it’s driven by the things that happen during a line change?

  2. quain says:

    Horcoff gets extra minutes whenever a line needs to take a draw in the defensive zone. And there was a set of ten or so games where Hemsky was injured and offense disappeared.

  3. Steve says:

    Hemsky would get double shifted some, too, especially when McIntyre was in the lineup.

  4. vb says:

    Interesting… (somehow I forgot about the Hemsky injury)
    When Horcoff is out to win a defensive zone draw, is it fair to say that it just adds noise to the data for his overall offensive performance?

  5. HBomb says:

    When Horcoff is out to win a defensive zone draw, is it fair to say that it just adds noise to the data for his overall offensive performance?

    Noise, yes…it makes the Points/60 and similar rates look worse than they actually are (extra 5on5 situations where he’s in his own end and will change off as soon as the puck is coming up the ice, thus making offensive production from said minutes essentially non-existent).

  6. Jonathan Willis says:

    It’s probably worth noting that neither Penner or Nilsson recorded much in the way of secondary assists – as for what that means, I have no idea, but the lack of second assists is probably connected (somehow) to their relatively disappointing offensive totals.

  7. doritogrande says:

    I’m a bit confused by the “QualComp” and “QualTeam” statistics. Should they not equal to zero for a particular team? Or am I stuck in the button-down world of calculus where every inequality, properly oriented can equal to zero.

  8. quain says:

    They’re calculated using some combination of opponent’s GFON and GAON, I can’t remember the exact formula, but I think the general end point of the discussion was ‘focus more on rank relative to the rest of the team than actual values.’

  9. Schitzo says:

    Dorito: Are you familiar with on/off ice +/-? It’s meant to normalize regular +/- so that you’re not punished for playing on a terrible team.

    Basically it sets the baseline at your team +/-, and then measures whether you’re above or below the line [so if I'm -5 on a team which averages -10, I get a +5].

    Over an entire team, yes, this would have to sum to zero. BUT this number is per 60 minutes, so Horc at +0.2 is worth an entire 4th line at -0.3.

    What does this have to do with QualComp and QualTeam?

    Qualcomp simply averages this number for the 5 skaters on the other team. Qualteam averages it for your 4 teammates.

  10. jon k says:

    I think Kotalik has gotten some unfair criticism in his short tenure as an Oiler.

    If you calculate his ESP/60 as an Oiler from scratch you get a rate of 1.415. Which is fairly close to his established rate with Buffalo and obviously, not very good.

    By my eye he started to find his place in the lineup a bit better after the first few games though. If you take out his first 5 games you get a rate of 1.948 which is pretty good.

    Whether it’s fair to do so or not is debatable as Kotalik has a reputation for being streaky.

    I think more importantly however his numbers when paired with Hemsky are quite good. Despite the small sample size (98.30 minutes), he’s second on the team only to Penner in GFONICE/60 when with Hemsky.

    The forward leaders by this metric are:

    Penner 3.735
    Kotalik 3.654
    Horcoff 3.156

    His GAONICE/60 is however much worse than Penner’s. Over 900 minutes (about a season at ES for Kotalik) he’d be responsible for 12.6 more goals against than Penner.

    Considering that he’s also got decent size and he finishes his checks (121 hits second to Moreau) I’d say Kotalik would be a good investment for the team at a rate less than 3.0 million per season.

    If Tambellini has bigger things on his plate this offseason however it’s not going to that upsetting if Kotalik walks.

  11. Jfry says:

    we cannot be talking about kotalik for 3 million when teams like calgary are finding moss and bourque for 1.3

    3 million is a lot for question marks especially when we have to cook the secondary stats to make him look useful.

    @lt…it’s nice to have all the analysis back.

  12. jon k says:

    Cooking the secondary stats is what a good player agent does. And it’s also why Kotalik will get 3.0 on the open market.

    When we have a GM who demonstrates the ability to keep his head above water we can discuss getting deals like Sutter does.

    I don’t even think it’s arguable at this point that Holland and Sutter are the best GMs in the league at locking up players for hometown discounts and it isn’t even close.

  13. Sean says:

    Kotalik could have had some really good scoring rates given the number of quality chances he missed.

    The facts that matter the most to me are PP/PK related. Cuz that is how we lost out on the playoffs. Lack of toughness is also a big reason but too subjective.

  14. Jonathan Willis says:

    I don’t even think it’s arguable at this point that Holland and Sutter are the best GMs in the league at locking up players for hometown discounts and it isn’t even close.

    *cough*Kiprusoff*cough*

  15. Woodguy says:

    I don’t even think it’s arguable at this point that Holland and Sutter are the best GMs in the league at locking up players for hometown discounts and it isn’t even close.

    *cough*Kiprusoff*cough*

    JW- You don’t like having the 32nd best sv% (.902) and 32nd best GAA (2.84) tied up for another 5 years at a 5.83M cap hit? :-)

    Kipper this year highlights the folly of signing goalies for big long term contracts as espoused often on this board.

    Really only Luongo qualifies for big long term $$ in my mind.

    Speaking of goalies, do you think Clemenson can be had for $2.5 over 3 years?

  16. Scott says:

    Thanks for the post LT.

    One little terminology quibble. We should probably be calling Quality of Competition by that same name since that’s all that it measures. I know that you’re going to be taking a deeper look at the starting position / zone shift / other surprises as well which is important, but that’s all a part of “toughness of minutes” too. Calling Quality of Competition “Toughness of Minutes” is a bit misleading in my opinion.

    As for Sutter, I don’t know that one Kipper ruins the whole argument. He’s gotten a lot of home town discounts in the last few years. This past season he signed Conroy cheap and before that you had Iginla, Regehr and Ference (who he then traded… what a bastard) all sign at what I think could be considered a discount from their market value at the time.

    Clemmensen? He’d leap for joy at 3 years 2.5 per. It’s too much, both for term and money. Check out his AHL numbers.

  17. Woodguy says:

    Clemmensen? He’d leap for joy at 3 years 2.5 per. It’s too much, both for term and money. Check out his AHL numbers.

    You are correct. For some reason I had him a little younger.

    What happened to him in the 05/06 & 06/07 seasons? He only played a total of 19 NHL games and 2 AHL games?

    Aside from the two years he really didn't play his stats are ok, not great.

    01-02 Albany AHL 29gp .908 3.29
    02-03 Albany AHL 47gp .910 2.65
    03-04 Albany AHL 22gp .902 3.07
    04-05 Albany AHL 46gp .916 2.81
    05-06 Devils NHL 14gp .881 3.35
    06-07 Devils NHL 6gp .889 3.15
    07-08 Marlie AHL 40gp .910 2.44
    08-09 Devils NHL 33gp .907 2.39

    This year is certainly a peak.

    Mind you these days 31 can be when a goalie is just starting to hit his stride (Thomas, Khabbi, Rollie etc)

    Figuring out goalies ain't easy.

  18. jon k says:

    I also don’t think it’s entirely fair to blame Kipper’s decling performance entirely on him.

    The team’s system has done a 180 change from Sutter to Keenan and the team gives up way too many high quality scoring chances. Keenan has made the system fit his talent and relied on Kipper to clean up the mess. He probably also should have rested him a bit more probably.

  19. Bruce says:

    What happened to him in the 05/06 & 06/07 seasons? He only played a total of 19 NHL games and 2 AHL games?Woodguy: Those two seasons Clemmensen was Brodeur’s full-time backup (a.k.a. “benchwarmer”)

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