How to Spend the Katz Money, Vol 1

Sometime this summer the Edmonton Oilers are going to be introducing a big bat for the middle of the lineup to Oilers fans. It might be Jagr, it could be Hossa, or maybe it’s Havlat.

The cynic in me thinks the Oilers will do something unwise but let’s give Steve Tambellini the benefit of the doubt.

Would he sign Marian Gaborik and take his chances that the skilled man is going to be healthy for the life of the contract?

Bottom line is that Ales Kotalik isn’t really a satisfactory option. The more I think about this offseason, the more I believe it’s about Souray and Penner heading for the exit and someone like Marian Gaborik arriving in Our town this summer.

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33 Responses to "How to Spend the Katz Money, Vol 1"

  1. jon k says:

    As a semi-related note, Prendergast recently said on the Pipeline show that he doesn’t think it’s necessary for the team to increase the staff or spending on European scouting.

    He thinks that the structure and ease of access to European tournaments means that Frank Musil and Kenta Nilsson get to see Euro prospects more than the NA guys get to see the highly touted prospects over here.

    I’m not sure what’s scarier, that two guys can supposedly cover a half-dozen leagues spread over a third of the planet, or that the guy in charge thinks that those two guys see more of their prospects than our NA scouts.

  2. Fake Craig McTavish says:

    Not Jagr?

  3. Lowetide says:

    Jagr is certainly an option.

  4. loudog says:

    Gaborik? please no! Kotalik would be a better sign – regardless of Marian’s numbers. Nevertheless… let’s hope Tambo’s not that trigger happy.

  5. Hockeysmack says:

    I share your sense of unease about the team’s recent free agent moves; the addition of a Jagr or Gaborik would be high-risk, high-reward, which with all things being equal, would probably backfire somehow. I have a funny feeling about a Souray/Penner combo moving out to LA. Frolov anyone?

  6. HBomb says:

    Gaborik, if healthy, is actually a player capable of playing top line minutes (i.e. against the other team’s best). Kotalik, while less of a health risk, is in essence a 2nd line player, a soft-minute muncher. Given the number of those guys we already have, re-inking Kotalik doesn’t make any sense to me.

    And if Prendergast actually thinks our European scouting manpower is sufficient, that is reason enough to let him go right there (gross incompetence). For a team that used to thrive on haivng success with Finnish players, do we even have a Finn in the system right now?

  7. Mr DeBakey says:

    I’d rather Tanguay than Gaborik.

    But, Remember!
    Get Bigger in the Top 6

    O’Sullivan for Malone

  8. Fake Craig McTavish says:

    Hockeysmack said…
    I share your sense of unease about the team’s recent free agent moves; the addition of a Jagr or Gaborik would be high-risk, high-reward, which with all things being equal, would probably backfire somehow. I have a funny feeling about a Souray/Penner combo moving out to LA. Frolov anyone?

    Neither Souray or Penner fits with what Lombardi is buidling in LA.

    He has more potentially elite defensmen coming up than is fair and Souray is way too old for his win window.

    I doubt he would swap Penner for Frolov.

    Would you?

  9. bookie says:

    If you listened to Tambi durring his press conference he said he felt that they could get a lot more out of some of their guys (he was careful with the wording because he did not want to let any players think they beat the coach in a battle of stuborness, but it was there)

    They might trade Penner now, but I think that Lowe wants to see if the Player he thought was in Penner is in Penner. Unless someone else feels the same way, you wont get trade value for him now.

  10. DBO says:

    - I think they will still try Hossa. 11 years, $70 mill. totally meaning we handcuff ourselves and move good players to fit it.
    - They will definitely move one of Souray or Vish (especially now that Gilbert has a back problem that may be like Jacques was. heard it on gregor’s). we have to move bodies to make the moves Tambellini wants so i expect a busy summer.
    - no way anyone takes Penner’s deal.
    - what about Souray for Cheechoo and Erhoff. Money is about the same, and it adds a big name for San Jose (especially if they lose in the 1st round). I’d rather have Clowe but not sure if San Jose would move him. This also allows us to move Staios and still have a decent top 4.

  11. DBO says:

    bookie: totally agree about Penner. lowe went out on a limb to get him, and I figure they still hope he develops. He might not be phyical, but at least he’s big and can play when motivated.

    Which of these deals would we rather the oil do:

    Hossa 11 years $70 mill
    or
    Tanguay 4 years $16 mill.

  12. Lowetide says:

    HBomb: The kid Hartikainen is a Finn. I’d be fine with Gaborik myself.

    Gilbert’s back a problem? Lordy.

  13. Dennis says:

    I know back problem’s are tricky – I hurt mine shoveling snow over two years ago and it’s always close to acting up – but 77′s young enough that he should be fine. Plus, it heartens me to know we have a reason for his oft erratic play this season.

    Interesting to see Gainey call out Lawton for floating the names of the Habs Lecavalier package and using them as the barometer for other team’s offers.

  14. loudog says:

    DBO: “Hossa 11 years $70 mill
    or
    Tanguay 4 years $16 mill.”

    Hossa for 11 years.. Tanguay isn’t worth 4M/year imo.

    I agree that penner’s staying. I think Souray is out. Cheechoo and Erhoff for Souray? I like.

  15. jon k says:

    Hossa is going to re-sign in Detroit. Winter all but guaranteed it via proxy of Stauffer.

    I think that Jagr is going to be coming over this offseason. Hopefully the cap hit is less than 6 million.

    Hartikainen is going to be a Finn to watch. Came close to breaking the Finnish league record for most goals by an 18 year old. He’s got good size and apparently is an abrasive player too. Exciting stuff. Hopefully he has a big year next season.

    KP also mentioned that Kurri said he’s being considered for the WC team. Probably means somewhere stowed on the backup list for the reserve list or something, but still impressive.

  16. Hockeysmack says:

    I don’t know Fake Craig MacTavish, the Kings blueline is young, and their experience lies in stalwarts like Tom Preissing and Sean O’Donnell. They need toughness and experience. Would LA want to give Frolov up? Probably not,but he’s a UFA after this season and they need to either resign him or get some value back for him. I don’t necessarily think they’d want to trade him, but economics have forced trades before.

    As far as Dean Lombardi having a plan… Michael Handzus, 4 years, $16 million. Jarret Stoll, 4 years, $14.4 million. Matt Greene, 4 years, $12 million. Clearly good with money. I could see the Kings having interest in Souray.

    You’re right about Penner though; too much ticket in that scenario.

  17. Fake Craig McTavish says:

    Hockeysmack said…
    I don’t know Fake Craig MacTavish, the Kings blueline is young, and their experience lies in stalwarts like Tom Preissing and Sean O’Donnell. They need toughness and experience. Would LA want to give Frolov up? Probably not,but he’s a UFA after this season and they need to either resign him or get some value back for him. I don’t necessarily think they’d want to trade him, but economics have forced trades before.

    As far as Dean Lombardi having a plan… Michael Handzus, 4 years, $16 million. Jarret Stoll, 4 years, $14.4 million. Matt Greene, 4 years, $12 million. Clearly good with money. I could see the Kings having interest in Souray.

    Dean Lombardi is crazy like a fox.

    Handzus may be a bit over the top but he’s been turned into an elite checking player. Lowe paid $5.5M for that.

    Stoll and Green had season which indicate they’re going to cover their contracts.

    Both Lombardi and Frolov have indicated they’ll make a deal and Lombardi in his post season interview indicated he won’t bring in older talent unless they make the Kings an immediate contender.

    Contrary to popular opinion, the Kings are not strapped for cash, in fact, they have one of the wealthiest owners in the NHL.

    They just decided to keep their powder dry until they are in a win now cycle.

    If they make a move this offseason, it’ll be Gaborik IMO. They have the cash and the cap space.

  18. Jfry says:

    i think we did a good job last summer of clearing 2.5 off the cap by trading torres for a guy we could just put in the minors and was never going to be a threat to play with the big team (and if he did it’s gravy).

    i think katz’s deep pockets could allow us to do more of that. i know the optics will look weird to the casual fan, but the end results are quite stunning when viewed from a strict cap perspective. an example of this would be something like Staois and a 4th for another teams Robbie Schremp or Dan Syvret tree? we never intend to play them in the show, save cap room immediately and stock up our farm team in the meantime. The Garon trade was also a good example of this. For me, Katz’s money should allow us to use the waiver wire to send a bunch of 1way contracts down. we might lose some average prospects (in the jfj tree) but that’s part of the collateral damage we’re willing to accept in just clearing cap space so that we can retool our strategy and get on our needs/grid more diligently.

    i think if management made some firm decisions on what players are filling out the salary grid, we could probably clear lots of cash just by “giving guys away” and accepting sabourin style contracts for the minors (acknowledging that there’s a balance that must be met on the farm for actually developing prospects too; but our farm program has been for sh*t for so long i don’t think this skews things too wildly).

    to show an extreme example of it, what about this:
    moreau to cbj for a 4th (or a sugartits tree),
    staois for syvret tree,
    pouliot for a 5th,
    nilsson for a 4th and an o’marra tree,
    o’sullivan for a second and a sugartits tree.
    waive deslauriers,
    waive reddox,
    waive jfj,
    waive any you don’t feel fit the grid.

    you can argue about worth or who we ship out, etc but i think that it shows an easy way to just unload cap space now.

    thoughts?

    also, what about outrageous short term contracts? 4 year in the 12m, 6m, 3m, 1.5 million, total of 22.5 over 4 years for cap hit of 5.625 for someone like gaborik with the idea that he becomes great trade bait (whether he’s playing or not) in the final two years of his contract for (poor) teams looking to make it to the cap, but not actually wanting to pay that much. is that crazy?

    first pin’r on fresh green, so i might not be calibrated correctly yet.

  19. rickibear says:

    //Hartikainen is going to be a Finn to watch. Came close to breaking the Finnish league record for most goals by an 18 year old.//

    Kind of like the fact Pendergast said he is one of three Fin forwards 18 yrs old to get better than 15 goals. The others? You can say it: Selanne and Kurri.

    The thing that got me is Pendergast saying Omara finally realizes his role as a 3-4C. Says talk of good shot at Oilers roster because he is our best FO and PK prospect.

    The one thing he pointed out is the Screw up Between Omarks NA and Swedish agent in getting the second Oiler offer. Will bring him over for 10/11.

  20. Schitzo says:

    I don’t think it’s possible to have too many scouts, but has Euro scouting really been a problem lately?

    Hartikeinen, Omark, Kytnar have all been solid later round picks.

  21. blackadder says:

    If the Oilers want to get into the free agent market at all – especially if they want to grab a marquee player (Jagr, Hossa, Tanguay), then one of Souray or Visnovsky have to go. They’ll probably want to trade Nilsson as well(4.5 million over the next two years for a guy who sits out every ten games is an overpay). I don’t think anyone will trade for Staios, or Moreau, and in fact I wouldn’t be surprised if they don’t buy Staios out of the last two years of his contract. I agree that Penner will stay and get another shot at becoming the player he was in Anaheim.

    Saying that, what teams would be interested in Nilsson, Souray or Visnovsky? I really can’t see anyone with either the cap space or the need to trade for any of those players. LA is oft-mentioned, but they dumped both Blake and Visnovsky last year, why would they want to bring in Souray now?

    I think that if the Oilers are going to make any big moves in the off season, you’ll see Gilbert, Grebeshkov or Cogliano traded before any of these other players.

  22. hunter1909 says:

    Shades of Ralph Backstrom to the 1970-71 Seal Kings.

    Pick up a semi decent player, trade away something precious, and hamstring the future.

    This is exactly what makes me want to stop following hockey.

    As for Pendergrast: We just all burned a year of our bloody LIVES, while Katz “evaluated” the on ice product. So, how many more years before some of these front office clowns get their walking papers?

  23. Smytty777 says:

    I think it is time for the Oilers to hit a few solid singles and doubles July 1st. Homeruns are nice (Hossa, Havlat, Gaborik), but another offseason of striking out will get us nowhere.

    Get a capable veteran third line centre to play with Moreau and Pisani. Put Staios out to pasture and bring in a veteran D-men that will lay the body and kill penalties for $1M a year.

    If Vish didn’t go down this year this team is a playoff team in my mind so a complete overhaul doesn’t seem necessary. Some minor tweaks and this is a playoff team, not a cup contender but a playoff team.

  24. matt says:

    I really, really like Souray. Also Vish. Don’t see why we can’t keep them unless we have to pay someone $11m/yr.

    Trade Gilbert. Trade Staios. Sign Grebeshkov. Keep Smid. Sign two cheap mean veteran D for the 3P.

    Trade O’Sullivan, Moreau, Penner if you can. Keep Kotalik. Get a face-off 3rd line center and try, again, to get versions of Cole and Glencross.

  25. Eytan says:

    ok

  26. Quinn says:

    Just a thought, but it seems like Kovalchuk may be trade bait this summer, for the right mix of players and picks. Is there anyone here who thinks he would do a good job for the Oil in a first line role skating beside Hemsky? Or are they both too much of puck hogs to work together?

    And I don’t know his cap hit, so I am not certain he would even fit.

  27. Quinn says:

    Oww, just took a look and 6.4 might be a bit too much, all depending on who goes away and takes their hit with them (howd’ya like Nilsson Atlanta?).

  28. danny says:

    Well it looks like Vinny Lecavalier will likely be dealt prior to the draft afterall.

    Edmontons probably more interested in trading for longterm NTC deals shortly before they kick in( as they did with Lubo )

    I think players enjoy being an oiler, while theyre there, its just a problem getting them there to begin with. Tambo may be a little gunshy putting his eggs in the UFA basket, and may find the temptation of VL a little too much of a safe play…

    ( and by safe play i mean potential disaster? )

    I’d imagine Cogs/Gilbert/1st would be the ransom?

    That’s about 6-7.5M in salary after Cogs new deal. Lecavalier weighs in around 8M.

    I guess its not as large a risk as I dramatize, considering I think it adds about 15-25 EV points to Horcs season, and hes locked in already. Hemmer would have a legit trigger-man on the powerplay and probably a new center to kill secondary toughs with instead of dog paddling at powervspower like he likely will do over his entire career. Mike Modano he is not people, as much as we want to tell ourselves he can be.

    ok put me in the undecided category on VL.

    vote yes for ‘saweroff centre’ though.

  29. HBomb says:

    Trade Gilbert.Why are so many people so bloody anxious to give up Tom Gilbert?

    I do not get it. After two seasons, I’d argue he’s the team’s best all-around defenseman outside of Visnovsky, and he’s still got room to grow.

    If it’s me at the helm, I’m shopping Souray while he’s at peak value.

  30. Fake Craig McTavish says:

    danny said…
    “Well it looks like Vinny Lecavalier will likely be dealt prior to the draft afterall….

    ” I think it adds about 15-25 EV points to Horcs season, and hes locked in already.”

    That’s hilarious.

  31. danny says:

    25 ev is probably hilarious.

    15 would be my expected.

    He’s shown to be a point producer every season that he hasn’t been a shutdown guy going back to lockout in the SEL. He just can’t produce when he’s taxed with playing against the other teams best. A bit of help in that category and there’s nowhere to go but up.

  32. quain says:

    I guess its not as large a risk as I dramatize, considering I think it adds about 15-25 EV points to Horcs season, and hes locked in already. Hemmer would have a legit trigger-man on the powerplay

    Horcoff wouldn’t see any offensive increase because he’d still play the same exact tough minutes, probably without Hemsky.

    VL is a mediocre powerplay producer. He’s slightly better than Shawn Horcoff. No, I don’t understand how someone who scores 100 points a season is Horcoff-esque on the PP… and a minus at ES…

    Just say no to Vincent Lecavalier.

  33. danny says:

    Quain I don’t think it’s possible that horc could face the levity of matchups that he did this season. VL would definitely be expected to handle at least a portion of own zone draws and matchups. I understand that the guy hasn’t been a pillar of power vs power, but his size and skill hints that he’s someone you don’t have to shy away from.

    I mean Souray was almost run out of town before he played a game here and fast forward he was a huge player last season.

    I think it helps Gagner a tonne as well. Horc and VL will draw the toughest D no doubt.

    I’m still not inthe yes camp. But I don’t hate the idea if we move the right combination of players and salary to get him.

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