Oilers at Flames, G82/08-09

Word today from Matty in the EJ that the Oilers are close to signing Grebeshkov to a 2-year deal. If we assume it’s a 3.3M cap hit (per year) that would put the Oilers 09-10 blueline at about 23M (nhlnumbers.com): Visnovsky-5.6; Souray 5.4; Gilbert-4; Grebeshkov-3.3; Staios-2.7; Smid-1.5(est); Peckham-.600.

That’s 23.1M, let’s say I’m wrong a little on Grebeshkov and Smid and it all comes in at 23.5M.

Does that leave enough for the forwards and a new #1 goalie? Probably not. You’d really like to keep that top 4D intact, so Staios would probably be the first trade option. After that, my wish would be that they find a new home for Sheldon Souray. As impressive as he’s been this season (and his shot from the point is pure joy), Souray has enough chaos in his game that the dollars paid are too much for what is delivered without the puck.

There’s a game tonight, last one on the schedule. In baseball these games often take about 90 minutes: season is over, swing at the first pitch (umpires often get involved too–don’t leave that bat on your shoulder today, son) and pitchers work quickly.

There’s plenty of time in the next few months (!!!!) to talk about July 1, but I’ve been thinking about the Sedins. The twin piss-cutters are without contracts this summer, free as birds in their mid-to-late 20′s. It’s a massive opportunity for any team, and would effectively cripple a pretty nice situation in Vancouver. They made 3.575M each this past season and will certainly get a raise.

Leaving aside the weather and number of beautiful women with legs to the sky that walk among the common folk everyday in Vancouver, could the Sedins help the Oilers in a big way? Yes. Does Tambellini have any pull with the Sedins? Who knows. He did negotiate contracts in VCR if I’ve read his bio correctly, so he may even have negotiated the last one.

How much salary would the Oilers need to shed? A bunch. Assuming they’ll save some dollars with Roloson leaving (and Erik Cole is off the books, of course), they’d still have to dump some dollars to make the Sedins happen.

They’d have to trade Shawn Horcoff.

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272 Responses to "Oilers at Flames, G82/08-09"

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  1. hunter1909 says:

    I’m thrilled:

    Because this is Craig MacTavish’s last ever game coaching the team I grew up cheering for.

  2. Lowetide says:

    hunter: Has Katz had his say? I’m sure MacT is gone but wouldn’t count out the possibility of the owner stepping in here.

    There is something of a miscarriage of justice going on here.

  3. godot10 says:

    1) Tampa could certainly use a veteran mentor defenseman like Staios.

    2) If Rob Blake retires, would San Jose be interested in Souray?

    3) I think Burkie in Toronto is going to bid up the price on the Sedin’s.

    4) Gillis in Vancouver might go JayBo and Gaborik.

  4. godot10 says:

    Katz would have to serve up JayBo and Simon Gagne to bring MacT back.

  5. rider guy says:

    As per tsn.ca, Franzen signs long term deal with the Wings. No terms, but believed to be 9 or 10 years. Knowing Holland, he probably got him for about half a mil a year.

  6. DBO says:

    franzen has signed a long term deal in Detroit. no numbers but it’s assumed to be like 9 or 10 years to keep the cap hit down. As per TSN.ca.

    Good times. Detroit does things right, and while a 10 yr deal for a 29 yr old is a lot, it makes it work in this cap era. Now watch Hossa sign for 12 years or something crazy. We might as well move Souray, and jump on the bandwagon and sign Jaybo to a 10 year 60 million deal.

  7. Lowetide says:

    This effectively moves Hossa off the UFA list and honestly it might not be a bad thing for the Oilers.

    I’m not certain this team is one good offensive player away from doing something, so two mid-level veteran forward talents might be a better plan.

  8. godot10 says:

    Detroit is digging itself a dangerous long term hole with these long contracts, all for medium term gain.

    They are going to need a lot of inflation in the real economy to survive these long-tail deals five years from now.

  9. GorillazXL says:

    Why move Souray and not Visnovsky? 81 ga,es ago I would of said good bye to Souray without missing a beat. Never his stats which are great playing for a chaotic team like the Oilers, but, its the character he has demonstrated throughout the season. Tough one, I personally llike them both but SOuray adds the toughness where as Vishnovsky adds the smarts.

    GXL

  10. Lowetide says:

    Gorilla: Visnovsky is a better player than Souray. It actually isn’t close.

  11. PunjabiOil says:

    Detroit is digging itself a dangerous long term hole with these long contracts, all for medium term gain.

    I don’t neccessarily agree.

    The fact that they will be able to deliver competitive teams for at least the next 5-6 years is great, maybe more

    Further, the cap hits are very, very reasonable for guys like Zetterberg, Frazen.

    Third, the low cap hits will be even more reasonable when you taken inflation into account.

    Forth, the Wings will receive no consequences when/if guys like Frazen/Zetterberg retire at say 37. The players simply get paid a large majority of their contract in earlier years of the contract; thus de-motivating them to play out the final years of the contract in which they will be paid relatively little compared to the earlier years.

    Of course it’s a CBA loophole, and it’s a shame the NHL did nothing about it. That’s why I laugh at the notion of Flames fans declaring Kiprusoft signed a contract below market value. Kipper was quoted in the papers that he wanted a five year deal to close out his career, but the Flames wanted to add another year to make the cap hit more manageable. Effectively, that turned a 7M cap hit into a 5.8M cap hit.

    The Oilers should have considered this manipulation when signing Horcoff.

  12. Brett Gee 英 明 says:

    Agreed on the Vish talk. You can’t let him go anywhere.

    Still like Souray, though.

  13. DBO says:

    I also like what Souray brings, but from a pure “trade value” standpoint i think he gets us more. I agree Vish is a better player, but Souray is more of a name. He’s a perfect piece on a team that is one or two players away. i hope our management realizes we are 4 or 5 pieces away, so that in the off season they approach our moves with that in mind. We need to get more 27-29 yr olds, while jettisoning some older expensive players. That’s a tall order, but if possible can be what makes us a true contender in 2 years.

  14. Lowetide says:

    Horcoff’s cap hit (5.5M) isn’t a concern imo, unless you’re trying to bring in the Sedin’s.

    The trouble Lowe had capwise came from signing third line talents (Moreau, Pisani, Staios) when they had the most bargaining power.

    That summer of 2006 (not signing Smyth, trading Pronger and then not replacing the at-bats with veteran options) killed MacT’s Oiler career.

    Just did.

  15. PunjabiOil says:

    Horcoff’s cap hit (5.5M) isn’t a concern imo, unless you’re trying to bring in the Sedin’s.

    I think every contract should be based on a stand-alone basis.

    I had no problem with the Horcoff signing, and the cap hit is reasonable; but – perhaps the Oilers should have signed him to a 8-9 extension to bring the cap hit even lower.

    This summer Moreau should go, and use that money on Kotalik. Simple stuff. Keep Pisani for another year, and then hopefully he will re-sign a career ending contract at a much lower cap hit (i.e. 1.3-1.5M).

    I liked the work Steve Staios did around the end of the year – but he has to go to if the Oilers want to retain players like Grebeshkov.

    Summer’s wish list:

    Gaborik, Havlat, Bouwmeester.

  16. DBO says:

    yesterday I mentioned making an offer sheet for Clowe from SJ. Just wondering if you corsi and stats guys can tell me if he’s an upgrade from Kotalik? I’m in the camp that Kotalik is the ARod of our team, in that he scores when games mean nothing. however, looking at his hits, goals, etc. he seems to be close to clowe. $2.5 mill for one of them, just not srue who’s better, especially if it means addig a 2nd round pick for Clowe. Kotalik’s also 29, and if we’re going to dump old guys, a few vets won’t hurt.

    So not sure if any of them are around, but a comparison of Kotalik and Clowe would be appreciated (Corsi, GF60, etc.).

  17. B.C.B. says:

    I don’t think we could trade Souray (since he has one year left on his NTC). While Souray has a big pay day, it is decreasing every year from now on (payday, not cap hit). He is the only physical defense man in the top 4, and I think trading him away would be a problem. I would trade Gilbert and Staois, if we could sign J-Bo:

    Visnosky (5.6) – J-bo (7)
    Souray (5.4) – Grebseshhov (3.3)
    Smid (1.5) 0 Peckham (0.6)
    7th man: Strudwick-like-player or Chorney (0.6)

    That is $ 24 Million, right on LT proposed with maintaining the current roster (and it includes the 7th man). I would trade Staios at the draft to make room for free agent spending, and Gilbert after we sign J-Bo. We would get something good back for Gilbert, especially if we packaged him up: say a top LW (?). If we don’t get J-Bo, then we get Gilbert and save 3 million to go shopping for a FA.

  18. DBO says:

    Punjabioil: nice wish list, just think only one would happen. I’m more int he LT camp, in that I’d like to bring in 2 or 3 guys who are 27-29 yrs old, and have skills we lack (size, hitting, goal scoring, faceoffs). plug those guys in to the lineup and we improve much more then bringing in 2 of those wish list guys, since it’ll cost us 1 or 2 of our better players to fit them under the cap.

  19. Jfry says:

    horcoff’s contract is devastating long term. and i’m not one of those HF guys. he’s getting 2 million more a year than he ought to. good luck getting a sniff. in my opinion, staois and moreau contracts look dreamy in contrast…sutter on the other hand is signing guys like moss for 1.3 to add to bourque and glennx. to me that exemplifies the difference in the two franchises…we would have given moss, torres’ old 2.7m contract.

    also, i was in van yesterday and wow…you were bang on about the legs!

  20. Jfry says:

    re clowe vs kotalik…

    clowe hands down. he provides a much more impactful presence off the puck…injury prone, but a much better place for our millions

  21. Lord Bob says:

    Remember Petr Nedved’s first go-round with the Oilers? When he came in at the deadline for a bag of tees, scored something like eight hundred points in nineteen games as the Oilers just missed the playoffs, signed somewhere else as a free agent for good money and absolutely blew his brains out?

    That’s Ales Kotalik in a nutshell.

  22. godot10 says:

    //That summer of 2006 (not signing Smyth, trading Pronger and then not replacing the at-bats with veteran options) killed MacT’s Oiler career.//

    MacT played Hejda in the pressbox for the first 40 games.

  23. PunjabiOil says:

    Lemaire possibly retiring?

    http://www.nhl.com/ice/news.htm?id=417696

  24. Scott says:

    If we have a chance to take on the Sedins and it requires moving Horcoff that’s a say thing. Shawn Horcoff has been an Oiler for a long time and is one of the few players left that has a connection to the history of this team which, at least for me, is important. When they were playing for the Cup I thought it would be awesome to watch Ryan Smyth pass it along to Rem Murray since they were the only two left from the Dallas series in 1997 (and even that’s cheating since Murray missed a bunch of years in between).

    Now I’d like to have at least a couple of guys left on the team that lived through playing for the Cup in 2006 only to have the whole thing torn apart for a couple of years. If we move Staios, Moreau and Horcoff that just leaves Pisani. That’s crazy. Two guys left after four years?

    That said, Horcoff’s contract is kind of silly. They finally give him his big pay-day when he reaches the downslope of his career. Big money deals for a player’s 31-36 y/o seasons is silly. The Sedins track that back two years, so it may be worth the flip, especially if you can limit it to a five (or even four) year term.

    As for the long-term deals, even if they don’t retire you can manage a buy-out and get out from under the cap hit, but even still there is some risk. Detroit is basically banking on Zetterberg being worthwhile at 6M until he’s 36 or 37. If he falls off a cliff earlier than that and doesn’t want to retire management-player relations could take a pretty big hit.

  25. DBO says:

    jfry: you may be right about kotalik. just wondering how his underlying numbers look. I think this year is right around what he ususally produces, so i think if you approached it as 20 goals, 40 pts and 2nd PP unit we’d be ok. As long as we don’t offer him $4 mill of course. This of course means we sign him to a 3 year, $12.5 mill extension before tonight’s game. threw up in my mouth a bit there.

  26. godot10 says:

    Upon a little further research, it appears that there are no equivalent prescriptions to correcting the salary cap resulting from players who retire like there are for players who are bought out. If this is true which it appears to be, this is a big loophol, and then I retract my earlier post.

    If the NHL does not correct the salary cap implications for retiring players like it does for player buyouts, then there is no long tail effect to what Detroit is doing. The damage to Detroit only occurs if the player refuses to retire and forces the Redwings to buy them out.

  27. St George says:

    Detroit is digging itself a dangerous long term hole with these long contracts, all for medium term gain.

    Not at all. This is how the “rich” teams can work around the cap. Sign a guy forever, make sure most of the cash is up front, and have some lower numbers towards the end of the contract. In 7 years, when Franzen is no longer living up to the contract, buy him out (for relatively cheap, since he is only getting 2 million a year by then), and bob’s your uncle.

  28. doritogrande says:

    I caught the second period of last night’s game with the girlfriend and despite having to explain simple things to her like why we’ve put our 4th line out against Iginla and why “that 83 guy” kept losing the puck at “the blue line” it didn’t go as badly as I thought it would. Then Mac scored and I couldn’t stop laughing, and she looked at me as if to say “I picked this guy?”

    I said it yesterday and I’ll say it again today, if we go with a new coach we don’t have a pressing need to alter our personnel. Move Cogliano to the wing, line Pouliot up at C, Moreau to the 4th line for a forward corps of:

    Penner-Horcoff-Hemsky
    Nilsson-Gagner-O’Sullivan
    Cogliano-Pouliot-Pisani
    Moreau-Brodziak-Stortini
    Ex: Jacques, Potulny

    Keeping the defense as is would be okay also, no reason to be changing it all too much but finding a new home for Staios would be ideal:

    Souray-Gilbert
    Visnovsky-Grebeshkov
    Staios-Smid
    Ex: Peckham

    I’m also fine with the same goalie tandem we had this year. Roloson’s got another year in him, and if we can actually see Deslauriers in more games next year we’ll have an indication of whether he can handle the load post-Roloson or if we have to go find an established #1 the year following.

    We don’t blow our wads, and come next summer, there’ll be money to pay for Gagner/Cogliano without risking them being poached with an RFA sheet.

    ———–
    For me, tonight’s game is all about our prospects. I’d love to see Jacques draw back into the lineup and seeing what he could do with some better linemates. I’m making a stretch here, but he could be the Oilers equivalent of Milan Lucic. It’s a meaningless game, why not try something different and stick him with Gagner? Skating’s not an issue for Jacques and we’re not asking him to go up against the NHL toughs. I also look to see Chorney spelling off Grebeshkov as the guy feeding Souray on the 1-line PP. He was billed as an elite puck-distributor in college so let’s see if he can do it in the NHL. I also look to see Peckham laying out bodies, taking numbers, and holding a regular PK shift.

  29. BadSeed says:

    Can’t se them re-upping Kotalik – after all, he’s exactly the opposite of what Tambelinni wants in a player. I’m going to assume Tambo has a plan in place instead of the scattergun approach Mr Lowe did.
    Furthermore, Lowetide, how does signing Franzen take Hossa off the ufa list? Shouldn’t this mean that Detroit can’t afford him now?

  30. St George says:

    Let’s not trade away Souray. In fact, let’s stop talking about/trying to trade away a big chunk of the team every season.

    One of the things that drives me nuts about this franchise is the revolving door that seems to turn over 40%+ of the team every year without regard to establishing any sort of team culture, tradition, or soul, because they are too busy chasing some bigger thing that never arrives.

    Look at the teams that have been good on a consistent basis. They don’t move a bunch of their guys every year, especially not the ones that have something to contribute. Here, we want to trade away anyone with experience at the drop of a hat thinking that this time we will bring in someone that will make it work much better (when it hasn’t really since, oh, maybe the days of Sather?).

    I am sure that part of the reason players don’t want to sign here when they do in Detroit (and trust me, I have spent a lot of time in Detroit and it is a much nastier place to live than Edmonton) is that in Detroit they are joining a stable organization where they will likely get to play out their contract as part of a family of players while in Edmonton pretty much the reverse is true. The Red Wings wouldn’t have lost Smyth, and they wouldn’t dump Souray.

  31. Bruce says:

    Visnovsky is a better player than Souray. It actually isn’t close.

    Hmmm …

    Souray: 80 GP, 23-30-53, 98 PiM, +1
    0.66 PPG, 24:52 TOI/G
    QC +0.02, QT +0.05

    Visnovsky: 50 GP, 8-23-31,30 PiM, +6
    0.62 PPG, 23:00 TOI/G
    QC -0.00, QT +0.15

    That looks fairly close to me. Lubo got more minutes with the first line, and got a lot of time with Grebs as a partner whereas Souray wound up with Staios down the stretch (during which time Steady Steve played by far his best hockey of the season).

    More to the point, LT, you’ve been talking about balance all season, yet when we talk about moving a top 4 defenceman you want to keep the three puck-movers and discard the guy who’s different, the guy who is a big shooter — leads the team in both shots and goals, for goodness sake — and who is by far the most physical and intimidating player on the backline if not the entire team. To blithely conclude that “it isn’t close” between them, I’ll agree they aren’t close as to what attributes they bring, but both bring quite a lot. Both are similar age, similar pay grade, not dissimilar history of injury (unfortunately).

    I love skill players too, and Lubo Visnovsky is a joy to watch in this respect. What I don’t want is a team of 6 Tom Gilberts and 12 Robert Nilssons. The Sourays, Smids and Stortinis of the world may have shortcomings, but so do the other guys, and the trick is to find a balance across skill sets.

  32. Bruce says:

    I’d like to bring in 2 or 3 guys who are 27-29 yrs old, and have skills we lack (size, hitting, goal scoring, faceoffs).

    Hear, hear, DBO. We need both those skills and players of that maturity level. I for one have been harping on the near void in that 27-29 age bracket you cite (only MacIntyre fills the gap between vets and kids).

    As for the missing skills, you are describing Jarret Stoll and Matt Greene almost to a T (who will be 27 and 26 respectively next season). That was the price we paid to obtain yet a third puckmoving defenceman last summer, an older, more expensive one, albeit a supremely skilled player who fully lived up to his billing for the 50 games before his shoulder went. I know most out there would still make that swap 10 times out of 10, but it was an expensive trade on more than just the salary front. The guys they moved had disparate skills which went unreplaced for the most part.

    That said, the trade is done and hopefully we have a healthy Lubo in the fall and for years to come. But we do still need to address those weaknesses.

    to me that exemplifies the difference in the two franchises…we would have given moss, torres’ old 2.7m contract.

    Jfry: Unless he’s Glencross, in which case we lowball and lose him. At least we got something abck for Greene and Stoll … losing GlenX for fuck-all badly hurt this club. Instead we wound up with bit players like Reddox and Brule doing his job for half the money and less than half as well. Still pisses me off that we let that guy get away after everything he showed us last spring.

  33. HBomb says:

    I love Visnovsky and hope they keep him, but the sensible progression for this blue-line is as follows:

    - Ditch Staios immediately for whatever you can get, even if it’s only a draft pick.

    - Grebeshkov is reportedly close to signing a 2 year extension, and I hope it comes in around 3 million per.

    - Visnovsky goes this summer either straight up on in a package for a LW (rather than going after both Sedins, I think it’s simpler that they just find a quality power-vs-power LW for Horcoff and Hemsky).

    - Bouwmeester is signed this summer to a long-term “Detroit-style” contract (say 60m over ten years).

    - Smid is extended, plays next season as the 5th defenseman.

    - After next season, Souray is moved when his NTC comes off.

    - Peckham plays 40-60 games next season and is entrenched on the 3rd pairing for the 2010-11 season.

    As such, the defense corps in fall 2010 looks something like this:

    Bouwmeester Gilbert
    Smid Grebeshkov
    Peckham (insert veteran here)

    I do agree with Lowetide’s original assertion that Visnovsky’s better than Souray. However, I also think there’s a strong likelihood he’s the one moved out. Count me as strongrly opposed to trading Gilbert, as I think that 4 million cap hit could represent quite the value contract in the last half of the term (fall 2011 through spring 2014).

  34. Doogie2K says:

    Let’s not trade away Souray. In fact, let’s stop talking about/trying to trade away a big chunk of the team every season.

    This. Look, Souray has come thisclose to his career numbers on a team that’s probably worse than the ’07 Canadiens, which unquestionably has a much worse PP, which is where he makes is money, and unlike that year, he’s not minus a billion (+1), and for whatever the flaws in that stat, the difference is probably significant enough to suggest that he’s playing better defensive hockey, too. And you all want to trade him?

    Jesus Christ, people, give your heads a shake.

  35. Doogie2K says:

    Oh, and let’s not forget that he brings a unique skillset to the D, many elements of which aren’t replicated at all in any of our other players over the age of 22.

  36. Ribs says:

    Man, trading away Horcoff for the sisters would kill me. It would be extremely hard to cheer for the team anymore. I’d have to root extra hard for Gagner and Cogliano to show them up and depending on the coaching I don’t know if it would happen or not.

    As for Souray, I haven’t seen much chaos out of him for most of the season so I think he makes the decision pretty tough if you want to trade him or Vis. I think you keep them both until a better (cheaper and/or younger) option becomes availabe.

  37. HBomb says:

    It would seem simpler to me to go out and find a Simon Gagne to play with Horcoff and Hemsky than to sign the Sedins and then move off Horcoff.

    You end up with the same effect.

    Hell, maybe you don’t even need to make a trade. Maybe simply committing to Horpensky for 82 games would increase the production and performance of the first line, rather than trying to pound square pegs into round holes and demoting guys to the fourth line based on some illogical personal vendetta and not the proven results (once again, to remind everyone, the 27/10/83 combination was a fairly impressive +21/-5 at evens this year when playing as a unit).

  38. Lord Bob says:

    The urge to trade Souray isn’t a vendetta. It isn’t because most of us hate the bastard and think he’s just a cinder block with a bazooka.

    Personally, I think Souray’s a great player and I’d plan on keeping him. But if trading him lets you bring in Bouwmeester as a free agent plus an elite winger in the trade, you have to do it. No questions asked. This team would be just so much better.

    Although, as HBomb has mentioned, it would be nice if we could trade Staios for a book of matches with half the matches missing or something.

  39. HBomb says:

    Lord Bob: I cannot state it enough. The absolute FIRST thing the Oilers need to do is to get out from under the Moreau and Staios deals. That’s the “dead money” against the Oilers cap right now.

    Souray, Visnovsky, Gilbert, Horcoff and Penner all have big tickets, but they all provide either top two-forward-line or top-four blueline contributions.

    4.7 million combined for a 4th line LW and a 5th (at best) d-man? Money not well spent.

  40. oilerdago says:

    I think we all agree that a top line left wing and a third line center are what’s needed most.

    While I don’t want to move one of our top 4D, the fact is it’s one of our few good bargaining chips.

    I’m hesitant to move Souray because he was a free agent who WANTED to come here. While I think Gilbert’s contract is a long-term value, he’s still making a lot of mistakes.

    What if you do a pre-July 1 deal w/Florida (sign and trade for Bouwmeester). Send Gilbert, Penner, Brule and a pick for him.

    With that cap room we can do an offer sheet or see if there is a worthwhile top line LW to play w/Hemsky.

    Also, as much as I am a fan of Pouliot, are we ready to go through a year of watching him grow into the 3C position? MacT wasted him this year (along w/JDD) by never playing him in his natural position. Would someone else do better by him or is it too late and time to find someone else?

    Just thinking.

  41. Schitzo says:

    Who’s more likely to spend time on the IR over the next 3 years, Viz or Souray?

  42. hunter1909 says:

    Who on earth wants Horcoff’s contract?

    Lowetide: A burned out, mediocre coach is as much use to Katz, as Amy Winehouse would be as the face of Rexall Drugs.

  43. Dennis says:

    - I love the different things that Souray can bring but he’s making real money and his past play and history of injury means there isn’t a great chance that he can replicate this season.

    - I sped read the dailies today and it appears that Terry Jones is going to attempt to Arnott Shawn Horcoff.

  44. HBomb says:

    Dennis: Terry Jones is a fucking fat hack. It’s that simple.

  45. reijo29 says:

    - Souray has requested a trade at least once this season. Not 100% sure if it was Mac T related or not. So he will waive his NMC.
    - I believe the Oilers agreed to honour Visnovsky's NTC.
    - Staios and Moreau need to go, if it means minors I'm fine with that but i'm hopeful that we can deal them both to teams that wantb the "Veteran Leadership" they can supposedly provide.
    This is as much about money (Salary Cap) as it is about getting rid of all of the teams current vocal leadership.
    - In the case of Jay Bouwmeester. No one has ever had to deal multiple assets for the right to sign a pending UFA. Maybe a conditional pick.
    - Needs: As has been stated we need a 1st line LW, 3rd line C and a bottom 3 Veteran D man.
    - Assets: 1 of the Top 3 D men (Souray, Viz, Gilbert). Cogliano. Penner. Pouliot. Nilsson. Moreau. Staios.
    - Ideal Situation:
    *Sign Jay Bouwmeester to the Zetterberg deal
    12yr/72 million.
    *Trade Coglaino, Nilsson, Gilbert, Pouliot, Staios or Moreau, Schremp and a conditional 1st rounder for Kovalchuk (1st Rounder Conditional on Kovie Resigning LT) and Colby Armstrong.
    * Sign Kovalchuk to a Detroit Red Wings deal as well. Probably have to be in the 7-8 million a year range until the last 3 years. So, 12yr.84 million maybe.
    *Trade Moreau or Staios for a low pick or marginal prospect.
    * Trade Souray or Viz (Probably Souray) for a young 3rd line center/pk guy and a young Dman (Stoll & Greene, but not actually them).
    * Re-sign Rollie (hopefully 1 year only), but play JDD 30 games next year.
    * Don't resign Kotalik.
    - Roster in 09-10:

    Kovalchuk-10-83
    19-89-Armsatrong
    27-New Stoll-34
    22-51-46

    71-37
    Bouwmeester-5
    New Greene-49

    35
    38

    Extras – 2 of 85, 67, 33, Stone, Poltuny, Strudwick

    I'm going to crunch cap numbers and also look at what teams have the young NHLers to give up for
    a Souray or Viz.

  46. Lord Bob says:

    Well, we Oiler fans are going to be short our ritual scapegoat if MacTavish takes the pipe. Somebody’s going to be thrust in to fill the void, and I’d rather it was Horcoff than Hemsky.

  47. Ribs says:

    - Souray has requested a trade at least once this season.

    Huh? I think I missed the boat on this one. Where’d this info come from?

  48. doritogrande says:

    - Souray has requested a trade at least once this season. Not 100% sure if it was Mac T related or not. So he will waive his NMC.

    You got a link to this? Because I’ll believe it when I see it.

    Personally, I think Souray’s a great player and I’d plan on keeping him. But if trading him lets you bring in Bouwmeester as a free agent plus an elite winger in the trade, you have to do it.

    Where’s the money coming for this if we add an elite winger (they cost money) for the Souray contract plus add Bouwmeester (he costs more money)? Even with getting rid of Staios/Moreau as is the concensus starting point for money-dumping, adding 4.7M to the pot doesn’t buy us both assets.

    What should be discussed before next year’s players are our draft prospects. If Shroeder is BPA when we pick, do you take him?

    ———-
    There’s still a game this season, yes?

  49. Ribs says:

    There’s still a game this season, yes?

    Clap….clap?

  50. Bruce says:

    Who’s more likely to spend time on the IR over the next 3 years, Viz or Souray?

    GP since the lockout:

    Season: – 44 – 71

    2005-06 – 75 – 80
    2006-07 – 81 – 69
    2007-08 – 26 – 82
    2008-09 – 81 – 50
    ——————-
    Totals : 263 – 281

    Pre lockout both had injury problems: Souray had the wrist and Visnovsky played just 57 and 58 games the two prior seasons. In other words neither is exactly a bastion of durability.

  51. jon k says:

    Reason to think we’ll lose tonight: The team was out at one of the regular watering holes last night getting absolutely cut, limo service and all. Present from the team?

    Reason to think we’ll win tonight: No morning skate!

    It’s been an up and down season. Here’s hoping for another clobbering since we’re locked in at 10th at the draft, just outside the talent dropoff.

  52. B.C.B. says:

    I don’t know where the anti-Souray vibe is coming from. He is the only shooter on the backend, he is physical, and he is a leader (i’d say he should be cap’t). His actually salary is going down after this year, and his NTC is disappearing. He wanted to come here. Why on god’s green earth would you want to trade him?
    - It sounds like everyone has decided this will be his best year, just like the Montreal fans did after his last year there.
    - The Oilers power play will be worst without him, then with him. We need to get a forward shooting threat, so we are not relying on him the whole PP.
    - Souray has played great defensively, when he is not dead tired, for his short season, and his full season.
    - He is a superstar, in his position, for under 6 million a year. Yes he is no Pronger, but he is still very good at his position (defensively wise, and as an offensive threat).
    - His skill set is not repeated on the Oilers top 6 defense, while the puck moving dman is, and this would increase if we picked up Bouwmeester.

    I just don’t get it.

  53. boopronger says:

    Im really liking Souray. Remember all the talk about team toughness? I dont think it will get any better if Souray leaves. Have you ever seen him lose a fight? One of the meanest SOBs in the league.

  54. jon k says:

    I agree with PJO that the ultra-long term contracts aren’t necessarily going to be trouble down the road. In fact, a longer term contract for Horcoff might have been useful in keeping his cap hit down.

    The contracts generally operate on the notion that these players will have the pride in the team and their performance to retire if they hit 37 and they’ve become a burden.

    So, you’re essentially cheating the cap by having an actual 4 or 5 million cap hit on Franzen when, for the term of the cap hit it is an effective cap hit of more like 5.5 or 6.

    I suspect Bettman will correct it in the next CBA, where there will be cap penalties for remainder of terms that are unpaid. Something like, the difference between the contract’s original full term cap hit and the contract’s effective cap hit over the actual played term as a penalty against the team’s cap for the original remaining years on the contract.

    So, using Horcoff as an example we have this:

    Cap hit 5.5
    Total salary 33.0
    Salary per year over 6 year extension:

    7.0 6.5 6.5 6.0 4.0 3.0

    Let’s say he retired after year 4, cutting out the last two years.

    The effective cap hit of his contract would be

    26.0 / 4 = 6.5

    Difference between original cap hit and effective cap hit would be 1 million, so the team would suffer a 1 million cap penalty for each of the remaining 2 years.

    It might not seem like much for Horcoff, but with contracts like Briere and Zetterberg it might be more of a detriment.

    Of course, it’s difficult to believe that they’d institute this rule retroactively upon contracts already in place.

  55. hunter1909 says:

    All this salary cap confuses and bores me.

    Why can’t they just return to the good old days, when players had to take summer jobs to make ends meet?

  56. Loxy says:

    Hasn’t it been widely reported that Bouwmeester wants nothing to do with Edmonton?

  57. Coach pb9617 says:

    As per tsn.ca, Franzen signs long term deal with the Wings. No terms, but believed to be 9 or 10 years. Knowing Holland, he probably got him for about half a mil a year.

    Reports are 11 years, 44 million from a swedish source.

  58. Black Dog says:

    Loxy – once was the case but a lot of talk starting this winter that he would have interest in playing in Edmonton, apparently his fiancee is from there.

    And a lot of folks have been saying it, many reputable.

  59. DBO says:

    looking at our roster and it’s lack of veterans, i think adding experience is a good thing. The biggest blow to our team was losing Vish. Although the money is huge, I think the best situation for this team is to keep both Vish and Souray this year. After the year you can make a decision on one of them, but this next year, with gagner and Cogliano on the cheap, you can ride the two of them. i think our best piece to deal is one of Gilbert or grebeshkov. they are similar players, are young enough to expect some improvement and can both move the puck well. however i don’t see either being #1 dmen, so why not deal them for something of value. No idea what they could get back, but one of them in a package with a Cogliano/Nilsson would bring back something solid.

  60. DBO says:

    And Franzen’s deal as per TSn is 11 years, $43 mill. $3.9 mill per year cap hit. Puts Detroit at $51.1 with only 16 players signed., they need to re-sign Hudler and samuelsson. Not to mention hossa. unless the make some serious salary moves, no way they re-sign hossa, unless they move hudler and walk away from Samuelsson.

  61. HBomb says:

    Canucks defeat Colorado 1-0 in OT in Denver this afternoon, and as such, the division title is theirs.

    Ok, so Luongo for the Hart trophy? Anyone else on-side with this?

    Also, Hawks in six over the flickering Flames.

  62. Coach pb9617 says:

    Im really liking Souray. Remember all the talk about team toughness? I dont think it will get any better if Souray leaves. Have you ever seen him lose a fight? One of the meanest SOBs in the league.

    If you bring some mean back in the deal, it’s not so bad. Plus, Peckham being around means more mean, so Souray for younger, defense-only mean guy would work.

  63. doritogrande says:

    Ok, so Luongo for the Hart trophy? Anyone else on-side with this?

    Haven’t you learned yet that the Hart is only awarded in the Eastern Conference? It’s only been awarded to a WC team once in the last 6 seasons, not including the Joe Thornton win. And I doubt that changes this year either.

    I’m liking Zdeno Chara for this year’s win.

  64. Lowetide says:

    The day Jason Blake beat Pisani for a trophy was the day I stopped even thinking about them. The NHL awards trophies based on the length of the drive from Toronto.

  65. DBO says:

    looking at a few teams with similar over paid players, i wonder if my “junk for your junk” deals might help us. Would anyone do this deal with Ottawa?

    Fisher and Volchenkov
    for
    Grebeshkov and Penner

    it allows Ottawa to re-sign comrie to be their 2C, adds some size to their top 6 (and the smae contract as Fisher in Penner) and adds a good offensive dman (for essentially the same price as Volchenkov).
    We get a 2/3C in Fisher who plays tough, hits and can play anywhere, essentially Shawn Horcoff with more physical play and less scoring. Volchenkov brings a huge physical presence to our top 4 dmen, not to mention we add 2 players who are 28 and 26. Right in that needed age group.

  66. Coach pb9617 says:

    Ok, so Luongo for the Hart trophy? Anyone else on-side with this?

    Mason really should win anything that isn’t forward specific, and I’m thinking maybe he should finish in the finals for the Selke.

  67. misfit says:

    Lots of interesting things being discussed here.

    - Lord Bob nailed my thoughts and concerns about Kotalik in one post. If they’re smart they’ll let Kotalik walk.

    - for all the moves HBomb suggested in that post, you still haven’t adressed this team’s biggest need, and that’s to get another center to share in some of Horcoff’s defensive responsibilities (preferably a LH’er).

    - Visnovksy over Souray, and like LT, I don’t think it’s all that close. You might have an argument for Souray this year, but one of those guys was playing the best hockey of his life, and the other was doing what he always does. They’ve both had injury problems in the past, but Visnovsky is still the safer bet going forward IMO.

    - You’d think that when you sign a guy like Franzen for 11 years you’d get a better deal than that. $3.9M is good value, but for how long? And I’m among those who think he’s a terrific hockey player.

  68. HBomb says:

    Lowetide: You know who’s from the Western Conference that should have his name on a Hart by now, but doesn’t, and probably won’t ever?

    Mr. Lidstrom.

    That angers me, deeply. Best d-man since Orr has yet to get the proper recognition, despite six Norris trophies and a Conn Smythe.

  69. hunter1909 says:

    Souray, Visnovsky, Gilbert and Grebeshkov were the only superior element the Oilers had going for them. Four scoring defencemen is a beautiful thing.

  70. HBomb says:

    misfit: I bet if he had gone UFA, Franzen gets five million a year from someone, easy.

    Who would you take right now? Franzen or Ryan Smyth?

  71. Lowetide says:

    HBomb: It’s ridiculous. Lidstrom is like Henry Aaron, 25 seasons from the same damn cookie cutter. I think he was probably underrated by year 6.

  72. HBomb says:

    Lowetide: Lidstrom has six Norris trophies. I’d say he probably should have 3 or 4 more.

    The guy has been an absolute blue-chipper since the mid-1990′s.

    And to think I’ve got a friend that argues he’s grossly overrated and doesn’t compare to either of Pronger or Niedermayer, that he’s a product of the great teams he’s played on….

    He might be better than any player on those Detroit cup winners. Including Yzerman, Fedorov, and Shanahan. No joke.

  73. Coach pb9617 says:

    Lord Bob: I cannot state it enough. The absolute FIRST thing the Oilers need to do is to get out from under the Moreau and Staios deals. That’s the “dead money” against the Oilers cap right now.

    Staios still has a wonderful reputation in the east, both with fans and media. No idea if it carries to the clubs themselves though. Staios for a 3rd rounder would be a coup at this point, and if ST can pull if off — Mazel Tov.

    Fisher and Volchenkov
    for
    Grebeshkov and Penner

    Grebs is the best player in that deal by a long way. That’s not a good trade unless it’s grebs for both.

    Lowetide: You know who’s from the Western Conference that should have his name on a Hart by now, but doesn’t, and probably won’t ever?

    Mr. Lidstrom.

    One d since Orr has won the trophy and he was in the west. It’s not a east bias, it’s a forward bias.

  74. DBO says:

    And to add to the Ottawa deal, trade Cogliano, 3rd round pick and prospect for gagne. then deal nilsson and a pick for harding. $2.6 mill offer sheet for Clowe (2nd round pick). Our lineup next year becomes:

    Gagne – Horcoff – Hemsky
    Clowe – Gagner – O’Sullivan
    Moreau – Fisher – Pisani
    Jacques – Brodziak ($.85) – Stortini

    Souray – Gilbert
    Vishnovski – Volchenkov
    Smid ($1.25)- Staios
    Peckham

    Harding ($2.0)
    JDD

    Puts us at $54.89 cap hit. That is a team that can compete for the division title. More mature, more scoring, more physical. And if you could find someone to take Moreau and Staios and fill their roles with guys for half the price, well that’s even better (like Moen and Zanon for $1.5 each).

  75. Coach pb9617 says:

    All this salary cap confuses and bores me.

    Why can’t they just return to the good old days, when players had to take summer jobs to make ends meet?

    I’ve heard of Luddites, but that actually gave me chuckle.

  76. B.C.B. says:

    DBO’s suggestions has some merit:
    Fisher and Volchenkov
    for
    Grebeshkov and Penner

    I have been begging for these two players all season long (a center that can play defense but not only defense, and a top 4 SHUTDOWN dman). The problem is that it does fix 2 holes in the line, but exacerbates one and creates a smaller hole:
    - Fixes: center how can win draws, play great defense, and play a little offensive
    - Fixes: grit and physical presence in top 4 Dmen
    - Exacerbates: lack of LW. It sends our best LW away, and this is a weakness
    - Creates need for a puck moving Dmen. Souray, Volchenkov, Peckham, and Smid are only ok passers, so if Vis or Gilbert goes down we are in trouble

  77. rickibear says:

    horcoff’s contract is devastating long term. and i’m not one of those HF guys. he’s getting 2 million more a year than he ought to.

    What!

    Not to be a dink but I get tired of the cap knowledge sometimes.

    Horcoff is one of 22 outscoring centers against the other teams best.
    1 is an entry level contract
    6 are rfa with the 4 signed in the last tewo years averaging 4M
    The rest are ufa contracts that average 5.25M
    One is Conroy at 1M anf 3 are due for big raises. An average of 5.5-6M for the ufa next year.

    That is the rate to have a center that provides the rest of the players on the team to beat the soft.

    As for all the dreaming.
    We need to improve PK. Win some defensive faceoffs. Need another Physical D presence.

    I want Knuble, Pj Axelsson, Zannon brought on this team.

  78. DBO says:

    Anmd since I’m a few beers in and the in-laws are on the way over for dinner, i’ll throw this out. Looking at UFA’s that fit our needs, i would be happy with these players.

    - Steve Sullivan (nash) – 1LW, with skill and scoring. Could be had for less then $4 mill.
    - Alex tanguay (MON)- 1LW. Two way 25-30 goal scorer who would fit nicely. may be hard to pry out of Montreal since they have cap space.
    - Dominic Moore (Buf) – 3C. good at faceoffs and the PK. lots of speed and has some grit. maybe for $2.0 million. If he wants too much then get Sammy Pahlsson (CHI) for the same cost.
    - Travis Moen (SJ) 3W. Gritty player, could be had for around $1.25 mill. Pair him with Pahlsson and Pisani and we have a heck of a checking line.
    - Paul Mara (NYR) – 5/6D, solid two way dman. Could be had for $1.5 mill.
    - Scott Clemenson (NJD) – G. Solid this year, been a back up for ever. Might work out. Could be had for around $2 million and a guaranteed starters spot. I’d take him over rollie.

    Need to free up roster spots for these players, but they are all upgrades from the players in their spot right now.

  79. Icecastles says:

    I don’t know where the anti-Souray vibe is coming from.

    If people can think that Horcoff is useless and adds nothing to the team, they’re capable of thinking anything. I’m amazed there aren’t more people calling to not renew Roloson… seems about the level some of the thinking is at right now.

    Speaking of which, they should trade Sam Gagner. He’s a shitty enforcer. :P

  80. Coach pb9617 says:

    horcoff’s contract is devastating long term. and i’m not one of those HF guys. he’s getting 2 million more a year than he ought to.

    Horcoff is a $250,000 bargain .

  81. Lowetide says:

    I’m very hopeful the Oilers find a better solution to the goaltending situation than Roloson.

  82. doritogrande says:

    - Scott Clemenson (NJD) – G. Solid this year, been a back up for ever. Might work out. Could be had for around $2 million and a guaranteed starters spot. I’d take him over rollie.

    Hell no at 1-M. I think it’s a good idea though. He’d be ours for a one-way contract at whatever money though.

  83. DBO says:

    And one last one. Going the youth route, what about grebeshkov to the rangers for Dubinsky and Girardi. Dubinsky fills our need at 3C, while Girardi is a nasty stay at home dman with a bit of offense. Those two would add our 2 biggest hitters (they rank 8th and 15th in the league for hits). to be honest i’d do that deal even if it took Cogliano and grebeshkov. it would free up about a million in cap space, and would balance out some of our roster and not sacrifice our future to do it.We’d probably get a good pick back as well, or some prospect.

  84. Icecastles says:

    Lowetide said…I’m very hopeful the Oilers find a better solution to the goaltending situation than Roloso

    Agreed. though I wonder how much we genuinely need to worry about this. By his own admission and that of others, his late start to the NHL has given him a lot more longevity than the average league goalie.

    Signing him to a one-year contract when there are isn’t a huge pool of talent to choose from seems like a not entirely bad idea, especially if they are willing to trust Deslauriers with at least 15 starts next year.

    Considering the pieces that are missing from the Oilers puzzle this year and the earlier noted observation that this team is all too willing to try to ‘trade up’ every damn summer, I think the goaltending issue is one of the few things that we *don’t* need to panick about just yet.

    If there were a Backstrom or Tim Thomas up for grabs it might be a different story, but I don’t see the point in dropping Roli for any of the FAs who are going to be available.

  85. PunjabiOil says:

    LETS GO SPOILERS!!!

  86. DBO says:

    Calgary is already spoiled. vancouver won today, so they take the division.

  87. PunjabiOil says:

    Calgary is already spoiled. vancouver won today, so they take the division.

    Yeah. I know.

  88. Icecastles says:

    DBO said…Calgary is already spoiled.

    There’s more than one way to play the spoiler… Just ask Ash.

  89. PunjabiOil says:

    I agree with PJO that the ultra-long term contracts aren’t necessarily going to be trouble down the road.

    The other potential for long term contracts are that if you structure the contract such that the actual dollars are low enough in the final years of the contract, you could easily bury the said in the minors if necessary, essentially forcing them to retire. No cap hit is incurred doing so.

    What a dumb loophole. You have a room full of edjumacated lawyers drafting the CBA; did none of them think of this possibility? Just an advantage for the richer teams; don’t like the contract? Bury the player in the minors. It’s a shame the Calgary Flames were able to bury their mistake (Erikkson) in the minors.

    Jay Bouwmeester – 15 year offer. Do it Katz.

  90. pboy says:

    I don't think there is a more important postion in any professional sport than NHL goaltender. Quarterback maybe but you can win a game with defense and a running back who is moving the chains. Starting pitcher in baseball but they only go every 5th game. Rolie had an amazing year but the odds are against him repeating it at 40 years old, regardless of how late in his career he started receiving major playing time. Tambo should be looking for a #1 goalie in the off-season and that should be priorities 1,2 & 3. And yes, I am looking at you Josh Harding.

  91. Icecastles says:

    I don’t think there is a more important postion in any professional sport than NHL goaltender.

    Unless you’re Detroit. That team would be truly terrifying with a real goalie.

  92. doritogrande says:

    Not sure if anyone else caught it, but Swedish Oiler 4th round pick Johan Motin and his team won the SEL trophy this year.

    He played 6 seconds in the deciding game.

    No, seriously. http://scoutingsweden.blogspot.com/

  93. doritogrande says:

    Cherry’s take on Edmonton, in case you care:

    - Not gritty enough
    - Don’t fire MacT.

    And plus he just threw BOTH Brian Burke and Ron Wilson under the bus. I’m waiting for the end of the segment to see if he’s cut off by the CBC shareholders.

  94. PunjabiOil says:

    I devote negligible attention to the SouthEast division, but today’ I checked the standings.

    Tampa Bay Lightning’s record:
    81 24 39 18

  95. knighttown says:

    I’m all about prying one of those tough scorers out of Dallas. Use Gilbert as a centerpiece for (in order) Morrow, Neal or Ott, adding on either side as needed.

  96. PunjabiOil says:

    It’s somewhat concerning there have been whispers in recent weeks that Hemsky and Souray have requested trades.

  97. Icecastles says:

    It’s somewhat concerning there have been whispers in recent weeks that Hemsky and Souray have requested trades.

    True, but without the context in which these requests were made, it’s hard to know what (if anything) to make of them.

    Were these meditated, written requests sent via their agents? Or angry retorts shouted on the ice when someone was pissed off during practice? Beecause I can easily see the latter happening, and that o of thing goes on all the time. It’s a sign that things aren’t going so well and that there is a lot of frustration, but it would be a mistake to overhear something like that and assume that it means the player genuinely and in clearer moments wants to be traded.

    For all we know, they were giving advice on their hockey cards. :)

  98. PunjabiOil says:

    And on an unrelated note, Jordon Ebele is flirting with a PPG in the AHL.

  99. Chris says:

    I probably have more time for Don Cherry than most. He is a stalwart media figure and cultural icon that projects a message that isn’t a bunch of defeatist, anti-American twaddle and he manages to piss off all the right people on a semi-regular basis. Hardwork, toughness and honour are the three notes he invariably sounds. Its an excellent message and makes him an endearing figure.

    Given his fondness for hardwork and toughness I can certainly see why he likes MacTavish. On the other hand, I doubt Cherry is as well appraised of the Oilers situation as many that comment here and follow the day to day travils of the team. I doubt he knows the prolific number of truly bizarre coaching descisions that have been made this year.

  100. shepso says:

    not to be too much of a pessimest, but JFJ was a ppg player in the AHL too…1 goal in the NHL later… Let’s see what Eberle does next year on the farm/WHL before we start jumping on the bandwagon. At this point, his success in Springfield on a shit team is merely a redundancy based on the amount of similarly skilled players with WJHC championship heroics on their resumes (by which I obviously mean 13 and 89. Didn’t 13 wear the C for Canada one tournament?)

    I don’t care, call me crazy, but I’m really just hoping to end the season on a high and just get back to normal around here. All the militancy and insane trade speculations/desires is starting to drive me a little batshit… We’ve got several weeks/months to see what happens next. Let’s just enjoy the Oilers beating a fading flame one final time before the changes go down.

  101. Icecastles says:

    Chris: Very good points. I’d add to your comments that Cherry is also big on picking and promoting his favorites, often to the point of compromising his stated ideals (example: preaching toughness, then saying that Ovechkin is going to be ‘taught a lesson’ (or words to that effect) for playing such a physical hard-checking game). Once you’re in Cherry’s ill-favour it’s hard to redeem yourself and once you’re in his good books, it’s hard to get out without massively screwing up.

  102. Lowetide says:

    Don Cherry personifies the worst part of Canada. His “everythink” verbal is both addled and insipid and his opinions (“soft Europeans”) are mean spirited and untrue.

    PLUS he had too many men on the ice against the Godless Habs.

  103. Icecastles says:

    Didn’t 13 wear the C for Canada one tournament?

    Yeah but I thought the ‘C’ was for Captain. Or maybe just ‘Cogliano’. ;)

    I’m such a smartass today. Doing anything I can to avoid studying.

  104. shepso says:

    @Icecastles…I’m in the law library procrastinating on the thesis as we speak….feel free to be as sarcastic as you want. I feel your pain today!

  105. shepso says:

    @Icecastles…not that it matters…different universities after all.

  106. PunjabiOil says:

    not to be too much of a pessimest, but JFJ was a ppg player in the AHL too…1 goal in the NHL later… Let’s see what Eberle does next year on the farm/WHL before we start jumping on the bandwagon

    There are several reasons to remain cautiously optimistic about Eberle.

    That said, Jacques was not a PPG player as a 20 year old. He went 44 in 65 at that age. It was at 21 when he put close to a PPG mark.

    Eberle is 18.

  107. Lowetide says:

    Eberle is having a nice night tonight and is 9gp, 3-6-9.

  108. shepso says:

    exactly PunjabiOil…cautious optimism is the order of the day, and probably the entire offseason for that matter.

    My personal vendetta against JFJ wasting roster space is probably a bit unfounded, but I still don’t take too much stock in great AHL numbers regardless of age when they happen to come about in the lackluster Oilers farm system. I haven’t seen a decent Oiler farm team since the lockout year, and that was likely only because Stoll and Torres anchored that team making it look a lot better than it really was.

  109. PunjabiOil says:

    Eberle is having a nice night tonight and is 9gp, 3-6-9.

    He’s got 1 goal, 1 assist, yet is -1.

  110. Quinn says:

    I used to play this game called ‘Diplomacy’. Great game. Spend your time making deals with other colonial European powers to try and increase your continental empire. The goal is to use your skills to create the optimal alliance and then stab them in the back to win.

    Point is, I sucked at it. Early on, the other players learned that I was always trying to create a new alliance and always willing to mess around with the good stuff I had going to try and do something ‘new’. So I would get ignored every round when I talked to the other players ’cause all I would do is mess up their plans.

    The line juggling I have seen on the comments today reminds me of myself. Too much tweaking of the line-up and wholesale cleanouts to create anything worth anything. I personally think that the line-up works best if played with the least. If you want a positive change, move one or two small pieces, but not until you figure out who you want to coach and which players are needed to fill out that system the most effectively. I hope we don’t hear a thing from the Oil during free trade silly-season, except for a couple of bit player moves.

  111. Lowetide says:

    A couple of PP points, but I don’t think Eberle is out of whack with the rest of the club in terms of plus minus (he’s at -4). Schremp is -7 in the same time period.

  112. rickibear says:

    Coach: posted this
    March 3 09: On HFBoards when the toronto fans questioned Moore’s demand for the dough.

    Can you name the 26 Centers in the league who face:
    1. Competition above the league average
    2. break even or outscore them
    3. Outchance them.

    A hint one them is Dominic Moore who is a UFA in his prime age years.

    Lets look at the Break down of the groups.
    1st Group Centers:
    6- are on entry Level contracts. The average salary 1M

    2nd Group centers:
    6- signed RFA contracts
    3- Pre Penner signing. Contract average 1.6M
    3- Post Penner signing Contract Average 3.3M

    3rd Group Center:
    11-Up to age 32 UFA and RFA target Average contract 5.8M

    4th group Centers:
    3- 33 or older UFA. Average contract 3.1M.

    So I look at this. Moore is a 27 yr old UFA center. His point production is better than some of the rfa who signed for 3.3M, The rfa and Entry level players are going to command 3.5-5.5M. The Ufa centers all average 5.8M, and the Older on downward contracts still command 3.1M.

    Do you still think his agent is nuts to ask for 3M.

    1.5M thats embarrassing.

    Dennis and the like knows this as the 30-50 club.

    Zannon versus Volchenkov:

    Ev ga:
    Zannon 2.02 #20
    Volch 2.32 #62

    Qual Comp Team Diffrence:
    Zannon +.14
    Volch +.24

    Outscoring +-GA/60:
    Zannon +.04 #80
    Volch -.96 4th worst in eague

    EVPTS/60:
    Zannon .40 Bottom 30
    Volch .34 bottom ten

    PKGA/60
    Zannon 6.57 #56
    Volch 5.96 #37

    Rtss
    Blocks:
    Zannon 237 #3
    Volch 177 #8

    Hits:
    Zannon 153 #24
    Volch 180 #12

    One you have to trade assets for. The other is UFA.

  113. Smarmy Boss says:

    Don Cherry called Ron Wilson a bag of garbage.

    That’s all I need to hear to love this man.

  114. doritogrande says:

    CBC just showed a graphic of the Franzen deal. It broke down with 5-mil for the first seven years, declining numbers in years 8 and 9, followed by 1-mil in years 10 and 11. Signing bonuses of 500k in the first year, and two additional ones of 250k.

  115. doritogrande says:

    To add:

    the complete breakdown is as such:

    1 – 5 + .500
    2 – 5
    3 – 5 + .250
    4 – 5 + .250
    5 – 5
    6 – 5
    7 – 5
    8 – 3.5
    9 – 2
    10 – 1
    11 – 1

  116. rickibear says:

    woops:
    Qual Comp Team Diffrence:
    Zannon -.14
    Volch -.24

  117. Quinn says:

    Still, I would have loved a Mule on our team.

  118. Coach pb9617 says:

    That’s a fantastic deal for the wings. They can bury the guy in the A for the last three years and only owe him 1 million per. That’s an amazing deal.

    One you have to trade assets for. The other is UFA.

    Ricki, I have a series of posts coming will be nothing new to you, but will show really neat stuff like that and Horcoff’s contract actually being the median deal for a player of his ilk.

  119. HBomb says:

    PLUS he had too many men on the ice against the Godless Habs.

    On this note Lowetide, it appears that the Bruins and Habs are on a first round collision course.

    Now, Montreal has struggled all year and Boston has been red hot. Is this a case where I should bet the mortgage payment on Carey Price all of a sudden channeling the ghost of Patrick Roy circa 1993 and the Habs pulling an upset out of their ass?

    Isn’t that how it ALWAYS happens when Boston plays Montreal in the playoffs? We can probably also assume some untimely cold streaks and at least one or two bogus, game-changing calls from the officials.

  120. doritogrande says:

    Pittsburgh with two shorthanded goals on the same penalty against Les Habs.

    Beauty.

  121. Coach pb9617 says:

    And Bouwmeester walks from Florida in one of the worst personnel moves ever.

    Wow.

    They turned down Kessel, Hunwick and a 1st.

  122. Lord Bob says:

    I believe the phrase you’re looking for is:

    “When Alexander of Macedon was 31, he wept salt tears because there were no more worlds left to conquer. Jordan Eberle is only 18.”

  123. Coach pb9617 says:

    Since HBomb is lacking, I’ll deliver the goods, a classic, reminiscent of a time gone by:

    Negroni:

    1.5 oz Gin
    1.5 oz Campari
    1.5 oz Sweet Vermouth

    Shake and serve on a few ice cubes

  124. godot10 says:

    //The other potential for long term contracts are that if you structure the contract such that the actual dollars are low enough in the final years of the contract, you could easily bury the said in the minors if necessary, essentially forcing them to retire. No cap hit is incurred doing so.//

    It counts against the cap in the summertime. Once the season starts, you can bury a contract, but it becomes unburied in the summertime.

  125. Chris says:

    Ah LT you’re being far too hard on Cherry. Sure some of his hobby horses are vapid and jingoistic, but rarely do you get anything good without their being the bad. Although its sometimes not acknowledged on this blog even Shawn Horcoff has his flaws.

  126. Coach pb9617 says:

    LB,

    That reminds me of one of my favorite bits of writing of all time: “El Dorado” by Robert Louis Stevenson.

    However, being a fan of this franchise, it seems that the management takes the following passage much, much, much too seriously:

    A strange picture we make on our way to our chimaeras, ceaselessly marching, grudging ourselves the time for rest; indefatigable, adventurous pioneers. It is true that we shall never reach the goal; it is even more than probable that there is no such place; and if we lived for centuries and were endowed with the powers of a god, we should find ourselves not much nearer what we wanted at the end. O toiling hands of mortals! O unwearied feet, travelling ye know not whither! Soon, soon, it seems to you, you must come forth on some conspicuous hilltop, and but a little way further, against the setting sun, descry the spires of El Dorado. Little do ye know your own blessednes; for to travel hopefully is a better thing than to arrive, and the true success is to labour.

  127. HBomb says:

    Coach: sounds classy. I’m currently trying to figure out concoctions involving the bottle of cherry brandy I received from a guest recently.

    But no boozin’ for me tonight. Tonight’s drink of choice is Neo Citran, non-drowsy (fighting a virus, but must stay up until 5am, as I am changing over to start night shift at work on Monday evening at 7pm). Somehow, mixing vodka with Neo Citran (which is essentially crushed tylenol in hot water) strikes me as a bad idea.

  128. HBomb says:

    Kotalik-Horcoff-Hemsky
    O’Sullivan-Pouliot-Gagner
    Moreau-Cogliano-Pisani
    Jacques-Reddox-MacIntyre

    Souray-Staios
    Gilbert-Grebeshkov
    Chorney-Strudwick

    As per Stauffer on CHED.

  129. HBomb says:

    Pathetic that Penner and Nilsson get a final “F-U” from MacT tonight, as being two of the three forwards to come out of the lineup.

    I feel sorry for both and wish them both better treatment from the coach of whatever team they are playing with next season.

  130. Lowetide says:

    Pouliot draws in. Wow. Might be his last game as an Oiler.

  131. Coach pb9617 says:

    Coach: sounds classy. I’m currently trying to figure out concoctions involving the bottle of cherry brandy I received from a guest recently.

    Make Dr Pepper:

    2 oz. cherry brandy
    1 oz. amaretto
    4 oz. cola

    If you’re feeling experimental, try something based on a Jack Rose, which I haven’t seen since my bartending days:

    1.5 oz. Apple Brandy
    1 oz Lemon Juice
    .5 oz Grenadine

    Maybe substitute lime juice and it would be like a cherry lime-aid.

    Be careful with that stuff, if it’s real nice brandy, made from actual cherries, instead of just flavored brandy, drinking mass quantities will cause you to shit your pants the next day. Tears through you like eating raw cherries.

  132. Lord Bob says:

    Jacques – Reddox – MacIntyre? I hereby christen that line ‘The Coca-Cola Company’ because who else has as many Coke machines?

  133. oilerdago says:

    //Pathetic that Penner and Nilsson get a final “F-U” from MacT tonight, as being two of the three forwards to come out of the lineup.//

    Yeah HBomb. Kinda of ironic that MacT would bench them both for possibly his last game behind the bench.

    Probably pained him to have to play Pouliot. And LT – you could be right, he’s one that I would be shocked to still see here next season (not that he’s been given a chance to show what he can do at the pivot).

  134. HBomb says:

    Make Dr Pepper:

    2 oz. cherry brandy
    1 oz. amaretto
    4 oz. cola

    Sweet merciful crap, considering my love for Dr. Pepper, that sounds deliciously brilliant.

    Lowetide: I really, really hope that it’s not MAP’s last game as an Oiler. Ditto for Jacques.

    Indifferent towards Kotalik and if we see him in blue and copper again (money better spent elsewhere, IMO). Reddox? Meh.

    Genuinely hoping and praying it’s the last game for Moreau and Staios as Oilers. The time has come for change.

  135. jon k says:

    PJO: Exactly. As long as the contract is front-loaded the team is left with a fair amount of flexibility at the end of the contract if the player is no longer worth the cap hit.

    It’s sort of funny that fans of every team talk about emulating the Detroit management style, and yet the practice Detroit employs to keep its stars is almost universally frowned upon.

    If you can land a player like Jay Bouwmeester for a 5.0 cap hit, even over 12 or 15 years, I would definitely be supportive of it.

    On an unrelated note the frozen 4 final is going on right now and there is high drama. The Terriers just came back against Miami Ohio from a 3-1 deficit to tie the game in the final 60 seconds of the game. Incredible.

    Gilroy was the primary assist on the game-tying goal. Really a good showcase of his offensive awareness. Made a no-look backhand pass from high in the slot for a one-timer from the right circle. Reminiscent of Scott Niedermayer’s ability to make the play from the backend.

    One of the bottom feeders who land him are going to be very happy. I think Toronto and Colorado are likely the frontrunners.

  136. Lord Bob says:

    Frankly, I’m surprised that MacTavish isn’t having Moreau centre a line with Staios and Hemsky while designating Penner and Nilsson peanut vendors.

    Oh, and he puts MacIntyre and Stortini on the powerplay.

  137. Lord Bob says:

    (If I seem a bit loopy tonight, forgive me: I just half-accidentally walked from Esquimalt to downtown Langford today, which, for those of you who aren’t familiar with the Victoria area, can be described as “a long way for a fat guy pushing two-fifty who hadn’t had breakfast”.)

  138. doritogrande says:

    (If I seem a bit loopy tonight, forgive me: I just half-accidentally walked from Esquimalt to downtown Langford today, which, for those of you who aren’t familiar with the Victoria area, can be described as “a long way for a fat guy pushing two-fifty who hadn’t had breakfast”.)

    If that doesn’t sound like a John Pinette line, I don’t know what does. Now growl like an Ewok.

  139. dstaples says:

    The Sedins? Pie in the sky.

    I can’t see the Sedins taking a reasonable deal in Edmonton, as one is sure be had in Vancouver.

    And if this team hands out any more unreasonable deals, might as well take up a new hobby. Me, I guess I’ll subscribe to Setanta and start a Manchester United blog.

    I’d rather we sign Joel Ward of Nashville, a new version of Fernado Pisani.

    Great, great on the penalty kill, faily tough QualComp, OK Corsi, OK counting numbers, 27, biggish, free agent.

  140. Coach pb9617 says:

    Pathetic that Penner and Nilsson get a final “F-U” from MacT tonight, as being two of the three forwards to come out of the lineup.

    I expected as much. The guy is a prick.

    Here’s to moving some crappy pieces and landing some underrated pieces.

    Get rid of Staios, Moreau, Roloson and other stuff.

    Bring me one of Hunter/Armstrong on the right side, Veilleux on the left, Zanon on the backend and Harding in goal.

    Penner – Horcoff – Hemsky
    Cogliano/Nilsson – Gagner – Hunter/Armstrong
    Veilleux – Pouliot – Pisani
    Jacques – Brodziak – Stortini
    MacIntyre

    Souray – Gilbert
    Vishnovsky – Grebeshkov
    Smid – Zanon
    Peckham

    Harding
    JDD

  141. Lowetide says:

    MacTavish not dressing Penner and Nilsson is certainly a message. If he doesn’t resign, that’s a map of the offseason.

  142. jon k says:

    In regards to Kotalik it’s worth noting that he and Penner almost have identical GF/20 when paired with Hemsky.

    Kotalik: 1.218
    Penner: 1.245

    Their GA/20 is a bit different however:

    Kotalik: 1.015
    Penner: 0.735

    Penner’s GA/20 when not paired with Hemsky is also an impressive 0.715.

    So it’s a bit of a tradeoff. If you could move Penner and sign Kotalik for 2.5-3.0 is it worth it?

    Over 900 ES minutes (about a season) the difference in GA ends up being 12.6 more goals against with Kotalik than Penner.

    This analysis does not take into account the difference in how MacT has treated Penner versus Kotalik for defensive responsibility.

    My initial instinct is that it’s not worth it, but it would be worthwhile to have both of them for more LW depth. The difference in salary could be made up in trading one of Pisani/Moreau and replacing Staios’ minutes with Peckham.

  143. Steve says:

    Quinn: I just took this up a couple of days ago as an additional excuse not to study for exams:

    http://www.phpdiplomacy.net

  144. HBomb says:

    Whoa, Columbus loses and Anaheim tied with Phoenix 4-4 in the third period.

    If the Ducks win, they get the sixth seed and a date with Vancouver. Which would also set up a Detroit vs. Columbus series that would be quite the matchup.

  145. dstaples says:

    Bruce: Jarret Stoll was the most effective penalty killing playing in the league this year.

    As for Souray and the Viz, I agree that this year they’ve been close and I argue Souray has been better, in that the Viz was prone to making mistakes that led to uneven man breaks, while Souray plays a much safer defensive game. Hell, did he cause a two-on-one all season. Plus he’s a real tough guy.

    I’d say that the Visnvosky-type of player appears to age somewhat better than the Souray-type, though. The big, slow, aggressive, high-scorers burn out a couple years earlier.

    Of course, to move Souray, and this is crucial — he has to want to go, as he has one year on his no-movement clause.

    In all our guesstimating, that’s the key point right now.

  146. doritogrande says:

    The truth finally comes out. Calgary isn’t icing a full lineup not because Keenan is being an asshole, it’s because they just can’t afford it.

    They’ve been playing man-down hockey the last 4 games.

  147. doritogrande says:

    Also, Fuck you Craig MacTavish for playing Strudwick over Peckham.

  148. Lowetide says:

    David Staples: Souray was undressed last night and often gets passed like a house on the side of the road. His passing is average to below average and you can beat him wide. For the kind of money he’s making, that’s quite the Denver boot.

  149. doritogrande says:

    Was that Mike Cammalleri on the ice wearing the helmet? Jesus, he really is small hey?

  150. doritogrande says:

    Welcome to the NHL, John Negrin.

  151. doritogrande says:

    Quick, who had Pat O’Sullivan in this year’s Sakic comparison pool?

  152. dstaples says:

    Souray has had a tough last 15 games, where all the fears of his Montreal days have started to come out, I’ll grant you that, LT.

    Overall, in total, he’s a better d-man when it comes to play off the puck than the Viz . . . . But, as in so many things hockey, better is in the eye of beholder.

    I’d agree with Bruce, overall, though, that the Viz wasn’t far superior to Souray this year, that they were close, and I’d give the nod to Souray, when you factor in toughness (and, of course, the fact that we had to give up “Mean” Matt to get the Viz ;), with Greene excelling at the penalty kill in L.A., and showing that yes, indeed, he was capable of hanging in with tougher minutes).

  153. Lowetide says:

    Well we’ll call it a draw but lordy I honestly think Viznovsky is just way better.

  154. Icecastles says:

    KOTA- Damn. It was close.

  155. doritogrande says:

    It took the entire season, but we finally see Cogliano on the powerplay, as a winger, and being goddamn effective.

  156. doritogrande says:

    Love that pinch by Chorney there. Great vision from the blueline.

  157. doritogrande says:

    Pouliot with an epic, epic fail.

  158. Icecastles says:

    KOTAL- shit. He’ll put it away yet.

  159. jon k says:

    Yeah Pouliot is not showing much out there. Kotalik misses two open nets.

  160. doritogrande says:

    Kotalik should have had his second of the night there. Nice move by Horcoff to sneak behind the D.

  161. doritogrande says:

    Icecastles: Get back to work. We can’t both be putting off studying for exams at the same time.

  162. doritogrande says:

    Who the hell is Ales Hemsky? CBC’s never mentioned him before.

  163. oilerdago says:

    Chorney’s shown some good, but has also shown some bad so far tonite. Rookie mistakes.

    I’d say he needs another year on the farm for sure.

    JDD’s looked good again. Not intimidated at all.

  164. Icecastles says:

    Dorito – I think Shepso is slacking too.

    Oilers games are the one big break from studying I have allowed myself all year… the rest of the breaks from studying are ones that I’ve taken without technically giving myself permission. :)

    One of my exams is for English Literature and I had a good chat with the prof last week about the hockey blogs and he revealed that he is working on a book about the intersection of pro sports and great literature. I’m thinking I might turn in a rant about the Oilers’ season as my final essay. I’m going to relate the whole thing to Great Expectations. Seriously

  165. doritogrande says:

    Icecastles:

    Brilliant. Make sure to equate Ethan Moreau to Don Quixote too, throwing all those poor windmills under the bus for their lackluster offensive skills.

  166. Scott says:

    Craig MacTavish after defeating the San Jose Sharks in 2006:

    “The one thing we’ve maintained throughout the playoffs is that we don’t want any regrets.

    “It’s been a long time since I’ve been in this situation. I used to take it for granted, but I don’t any more. It’s not an expectation of ours that if it’s not this year, it’s going to be next year. There’s no thought of that. It’s this year. Let’s capitalize and maybe make it three weeks that we’ll remember for the rest of our lives.”

    We have been damned by his prophecy down to this day.

  167. Coach pb9617 says:

    Well we’ll call it a draw but lordy I honestly think Viznovsky is just way better.

    Concur with the XO.

    Souray is a danger with the puck. Vishnovsky is better with the puck than everyone on the team.

  168. Scott says:

    Chris Pronger after game 1 against the Ducks in 2006:

    “When you look at Hemmer blocking shots and Sergei Samsonov blocking shots, when you’ve got guys sacrificing who aren’t known for doing those things, it’s nice to see. It certainly gives the bench a spark when you see guys like that buying in and doing whatever it takes to win hockey games. It’s a bit uplifting.”

    Two months later… it is to weep.

  169. doritogrande says:

    Gilbert lookin like Paul Coffey with a wraparound!

  170. oilerdago says:

    Nice finish by Gilbert there.

  171. PunjabiOil says:

    Rod Phillips may be calling his final game. Tune into 630 Ched.

    The fact the media has not picked up this story is quite sad, actually.

  172. doritogrande says:

    Pisani’s looking to dish the puck too often tonight. He’s gotta bury that one like it’s Game 5 OT.

  173. Steve says:

    Rod Phillips may be calling his final game.

    WHAT?!?!

  174. Coach pb9617 says:

    Ooooooh, Lindy Ruff on the hot seat in Buffalo?

    I have a new #1 coaching candidate.

  175. jon k says:

    I would be sad for Rod if he wasn’t 5 years overdue. The man is infuriating now.

    At some point I stopped tuning into 630 ched just because I couldn’t stand him being two plays behind and his inability to remember Oiler roster player names.

  176. oilerdago says:

    One (of many) thing that this group does not do a good job of is get the puck deep when they’re going for a defensive change in the 2nd period.

    Been an issue all season and it results in too many good opportunities the other way.

    Studs and Chorney have NOT looked good this period at all.

  177. Coach pb9617 says:

    Studs and Chorney have NOT looked good this period at all.

    Strudwick hasn’t looked good since game 5.

  178. doritogrande says:

    Ohhhhh, softie.

    Does MacT pull Deslauriers now?

  179. Steve says:

    Seriously: What’s this about Rod being done? I’ve had him on since midway through the first, and I haven’t heard anything.

  180. oilerdago says:

    Coach: ba-da-bing

  181. HBomb says:

    Ethan Moreau: the play dies here.

  182. Lowetide says:

    Was that Chorney with the big play?

  183. oilerdago says:

    LT – I think so. After backing up and showing poor gap control on the goal, he bounced back and saved one on Lundmark.

  184. doritogrande says:

    Philippe Cornet and the Oceanic are off to the Q-semi finals. He’s at 3-10-13 +6 in 9 games.

  185. Icecastles says:

    Dorito – I just shared the Moreau/Quixote reference with a classmate and it took us abotu 5 minutes to stop laughing. Nice one.

    I don’t think there has ever been a goalie who makes me as nervous as Deslauriers. Of course Hasek was nerve-wracking to watch too. Both of them flail like Pris at the end of Blade Runner whenever they have to face a rebound. Is it to much to hop that Deslauriers is the next brilliant goalie who defies the odds and common sense?

  186. Icecastles says:

    Aha! see that? Deslauriers = Hasek. looks confused and out of position, but he’s got moves like a drunken cat.

  187. doritogrande says:

    Aha! see that? Deslauriers = Hasek. looks confused and out of position, but he’s got moves like a drunken cat.

    Do yourself a favour, and watch a Boston Bruins game during their playoff run (should be easy because they’re playing Montreal). Tim Thomas’ acrobatics are on par with or better than Hasek.

    With that remark, Jeff Deslauriers should not be allowed to touch a puck again outside his crease. Ever.

  188. HBomb says:

    Crazy sequence there involving JDD, all started with a terrible pass attempt from Staios to Souray.

  189. doritogrande says:

    Gilbert’s channeling the ghost of Paul Coffey tonight. Bringing back the days of the rover.

    Fuck. Cammalleri’s hot tonight.

  190. Icecastles says:

    Deslauriers = Hasek in the 2008 playoffs. :( Shit.

  191. HBomb says:

    JDD’s gotta stop at least one of those two Cammalleri goals.

  192. danny says:

    On that penalty kill, there was a moment where the puck came across to the weakside after a scramble on the far boards. Edmontons weakside pointman just gingerly floated to his position and stuck his stick out in a terrible display of effort.

    It was Ethan Moreau, who thinks the kids dont try hard enough.

    I can solve the Vis/Souray debate…

    buyout 18 and put a C on 44…

    ftr, souray has filled a valuable role on this team, but saying hes better than Vis, is like saying Phillipe Boucher is better than Sergei Zubov.

    no.

  193. doritogrande says:

    Chorney was in Deslauriers’ vision on both goals. Kid’s gotta work on his defensive positioning in Springfield next year.

  194. quain says:

    Pisani doesn’t completely suck at commercials.

  195. doritogrande says:

    They’re cutting Calgary some slack here because of all their injuries, but come on. If they were really injured, put them on IR, save the cap-space, and bring up your minor leaguers. Hell, they’ve got the second-ranked goal scorer down in QC doing SFA.

    It’s Sutter’s fault, not the CBA.

  196. oilerdago says:

    Dorito: I don’t think you can put players on the IR in the last 9 games which is why they’re up against it with the cap.

  197. Coach pb9617 says:

    Good to know that Staios still has the hard around in his bag.

  198. doritogrande says:

    That was the best minute of hockey I’ve seen this year. Including the Canadian Juniors.

  199. Traktor says:

    If anyone PVR’d the game go back to the 3:00 mark and just focus on Ethan Moreau.

    One of the most pathetic shifts I’ve seen in my life.

  200. Steve says:

    No, seriously: What’s this about Rod being done? Are we just speculating because he’s old and borderline senile? Or is there some basis for saying that he’ll be done?

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