Approximate Trade Value

Fans overestimate the value of their team’s players in terms of trade possibilities. It is a universal truth. I don’t remember anyone saying “we’re not going to trade Esa unless Doug Weight comes the other way” but I do recall having an online shouting match with someone named Diablo Canyon over the value of Doug Weight back in 2000-01.

My argument was that the Oilers would get both Jochen Hecht and Ladislav Nagy, and his argument was the Oilers would get one of them and change. Turns out Nagy was shipped out before the Oildrop had a chance to get him in return and so it was indeed Hecht, Marty Reasoner and change for Doug Weight when the deal went down.

As an aged fan I always try to tip the scales a little the other way, so as to at least be in the ballpark when the news hits the Al Gore about the latest trade.

I’m not especially good at predictions but get some right from time to time and have a healthy enough ego to believe (even if it’s an inside voice) that the Oilers would fare better if they just did what I told them to do.

I’ll write another post like that one on June 30, but for now I thought it might be fun to post a “line in the sand” for each Oiler player who might be in the trade mix this summer. In some cases I’ll list a specific number (draft pick) and in others I’ll name names. Please join in.

  • Ales Hemsky: I think the Oilers could get a lot for him. He’s the modern Rick Middleton and has many years of terrific quality (at fair prices) ahead of him. I think he’s well clear of Frolov and Horton, and would consider his price to be shy of Jordan Staal territory. Hemsky on Crosby’s (or Malkin’s) wing would be music. I also believe Hemsky gets you in the Tomas Vanek, Anze Kopitar conversation.
  • Lubomir Visnovsky: I think the Oilers could get a lot for him. His value certainly didn’t decrease during his Edmonton season, so a good center plus a big defender who is useful should be the target. I think he gets you in the Joe Pavelski conversation with money being the only concern from the other side. He’s a beauty.
  • Tom Gilbert: He’s the likely ticket out of town, but he’s a good player so the Oilers will need to make a wise decision. My guess is that Gilbert would net you a very good center who can play a quality overall game, someone like Ryan Kesler and will also mention Pavelski here (he’s a good faceoff man with terrific skills).
  • Sheldon Souray: I don’t think his value would be exceptional based on his season. Souray has a lot of flaws and injury history for a man making his money at his age. I’ll say you could get Eric Brewer or Scott Hannan in return, plus maybe a pick in the #40-70 range in each instance (depending on which GM made the phonecall). In order for him to be part of a Jay-Bo deal the Oilers would have to add a lot to the deal in my opinion. Cogliano and the pick at 10 for Bouwmeester and a little bit. That kind of deal.
  • Dustin Penner: The contract gets a lot of attention but is certainly movable, even in this day and age. Penner’s not nothing, he has had two decent-to-good seasons and is solid when playing with his team’s best (and against middling competition). He’s Tim Wallach 1987, a guy who can help offensively when there are better players all around him. A recent David Staples article overrates him, but David has the right idea in the Penner’s value is/should be obvious to fans and therefore extremely obvious to teams looking to improve this summer. The trade would probably involve an overpaid player coming back, so I’ll suggest Ryan Malone or Mike Fisher.
  • Ethan Moreau: He’s a guy I believe we can overrate in trade a little, because he’s pretty famous for what he brings. Moreau’s a captain, he’s played many years for the Oilers and we can’t forget that he’s been doing things for over a decade in some of these rinks in front of the NHL braintrusts. I think people will be surprised by the return, and will suggest Jason Chimera or Daniel Winnik as possible return.
  • Robert Nilsson: At this point he’s throw-in, but I think he has value. It was just one year ago that Nilsson’s 5×5/60 was 2.37 (behind only Horcoff) and given the right situation he could help a team. His cap number is 2.0M. I’ll say his value is a 4th round pick at this point, say 95-110 overall. I’d also love to see him dealt to the Habs in a trade for Halak, with perhaps a flip of the first rounders making it even.
  • Andrew Cogliano: I know he’s horrible in the FU circle and he can’t (apparently) play LW, but sooner or later some coach will figure out where to play him and he’s building a pretty nice offensive foundation. Recent Oilers history isn’t full of forwards who’ve scored 36 goals in their first two NHL seasons. I’ll say his value is equal to Brandon Dubinsky and well clear of Nick Foligno.
  • Marc Pouliot: A similar value to Nilsson, probably a bit less despite the fact I think he’s a better player. I’ll say a pick between 120-150 overall.
  • Patrick O’Sullivan: Since he’s been recently traded we have a nice trade value idea about him. I’ll say the Oilers could get Christopher Higgins or most of Trent Hunter in return.
  • JF Jacques: I’ll say he’s in the same ballpark as Pouliot, maybe a hair less expensive because of his recent injury. #150 overall.
  • Kyle Brodziak: His value is low because of the situations he played in this past season. However, I think NHL GM’s are a pretty smart lot and will guess that Brodziak could bring back a pick in the 3rd round. Say 80th overall.
  • Steve Staios: I think he’s probably going to be traded, and would suggest it’ll be for a pick or young mid-level prospect. He could also be acquired for a different contract (I’ll trade you my 2-year Staios contract for your 1-year McKee) but it’ll be a salary dump of some sort ala Raffi Torres last summer.

Okay, fire away. Rants are encouraged, but please add your “line in the sand” after you bury me. :-)

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90 Responses to "Approximate Trade Value"

  1. Quinn says:

    Andrew Cogliano: I know he’s horrible in the FU circle . Freudian slip LT?

    BTW, I make that Gilbert-Kesler trade everyday of the week and twice on Sundays. Kesler is the grit, hustle, commitment and energy the Oil lacked on many nights this season, plus he has hands.

  2. Lord Bob says:

    Yes, Quinn, Kesler is grit, hustle, etc. But Gilbert is good at hockey, so I’d keep #77.

    The problem is that we’d be selling low on a lot of guys right now. Penner and Nilsson’s values are so in the tank right now that trading them should be a pretty limited option. Hemsky and Horcoff have quite a bit of the lustre worn off, too. Right now, the only guys we could sell high on are Souray and Grebeshkov. And if the right Souray deal came along, I’d think about it pretty good.

  3. HBomb says:

    Any discussion needs to start on drawing a line in the sand on who you keep and who you shop, who you’re willing to move for the right price and who you’re not.

    Core (not available, generally speaking): Hemsky, Horcoff, Gagner, Visnovsky, Gilbert

    Salary Dumps: Moreau, Staios

    Actively Shop: Nilsson, Penner, Souray

    Available if the return is right: Cogliano, Grebeshkov, O’Sullivan, Smid

    Cheap and Useful, Won’t Net Much, But Don’t Kill a Deal if They’re Wanted as a throw-in: Pouliot, Jacques, Brodziak, Reddox, Stortini

    Guy You Keep and Hope to Sign At A Discounted Extension: Pisani

    That’s where I’d be starting from. For all the talk of moving Gilbert, I’m opposed to it 100%.

  4. Traktor says:

    “I think he’s well clear of Frolov and Horton, and would consider his price to be shy of Jordan Staal territory.”

    This is crazy. Can you explain how Staal has that much more value than Horton?

    Horton already has a 28, 31,27 and 22 goal season under his belt and he’s only 23.

    I think Pittsburg would have to add on Letang or a 1st round pick + Staal for Hemsky.

  5. Traktor says:

    The most I can see Pouliot returning is something like:

    Pouliot + 130th overall for 125th overall.

  6. Gerta Rauss says:

    Agree with the Gilbert assesment LT.
    I like Gilbert,and have liked him since his first game with the Oil, but Grebeshkov’s improved play has made Gibby redundant (and thus
    expendable)

    Off the board here,and here me out before you roast me:

    Gilbert and (player B) to Florida for the rights to a (signed) Jay-Bo.

    This is a no lose proposal for Tambo,because if Jay-Bo doesn’t sign,you walk away,and you know that chasing Jay on July 1 is a waste of time,
    and you can concentrate on other UFAs.If he wants to play here,sign him to one of those Extend-o contracts and get his cap hit down to around 6.5M.

    Florida might consider this because history shows they missed their opportunity for vast riches by keeping Jay at the deadline,and trading the rights to
    a player at the draft gets you pennies on the dollar.The Florida GM can also parade his 2 assets around town,keeping his fanbase happy(and maybe keeping
    his job)

    Edmonton does this,and insists that Florida take a 2nd body(and a 2nd contract).Start with the big 3…Staios,Moreau,Nilsson..and work your way down to
    Pouliout,Reddox,Brodziak…whoever you’ve identified as expendable.

    I know,I know…this is “terrible asset management..!!!…why don’t you just sign JayBo July 1 and keep your assets!!!..”

    Well,history also shows that the Oilers have not had a lot of success signing UFAs,and with 28 other GMs barking in JayBo’s ear,our message may get lost.

    The other thing to consider,is that if we sign JayBo July 1,the other 29 teams know we have to deal a defenseman,and we’re no longer dealing from a position
    of strength.
    Also,we now have cap problems.If you trade Gilbert and get assets back,you still have cap problems.So you deal more assets…in the hope that at
    the end of the day,you deal enough assets to get you under the cap.

    The above deal is quick and dirty.And if you’re lucky enough to move say,Nilsson,most of JayBo’s contract is covered for the first 2 years,and 2/3 of his contract is already budgeted/covered for the first 5 years(the amount of time/dollars left on Gilberts contract)

    The smell test for me is:would you trade Gilbert/Nilsson for JayBo…?

    I thought so.

  7. B.C.B. says:

    I would not want to see Gibert, Grebs, or Cogliano traded for anything put a seriously better player, which would mean take one of the Defenders and Cogs as a package going the other way.

    What would be the line in the sand for Gilberts/Grebs and Cogliano:
    1) Ilya Kovalchuk (no extension)
    2) Jason Spezza (and his terrible contract)
    3) Patty Marleau
    4) Tomas Vokoun

    if you added a 1st round pick:
    1) Kovalchuh (with an extension)
    2) Mike Richards + parts
    3) Vinny Lecavalier
    4) Jay Bouwmeester (with an extension)

    If you added two first round picks and Parts
    1) Crobsy or Malkin (?)

    I am not trying to undermine your experiment here LT, just stating my opinion that you don’t trade those three players unless you are getting something back that is a really beauty. The last thing I would want to see is one of those players trade for a lesser light and a draft pick.

    Rip away, everyone!

  8. Gerta Rauss says:

    And for the record,my line in the sand is 2 or 3 moves this summer,and let the current crop of guys show the new coach what they can do.If we miss the playoffs again,The Fables of the Reconstruction begin next year.

    this year:
    -goalie
    -JayBo if he wants to play here
    -veteran 3C

  9. Gerta Rauss says:

    @BCB
    Marleau is interesting…big changes coming in SJ methinks

    In reading the SJ blogs/MSM after their exit,it sounds like they want Thornton’s head on a stick…I think either Thornton or Marleau might wave their NTC just to get out of that town.

    And your Malkin comment is interesting,but I think that takes a Hemsky ++,and for me,that is next year(assuming we miss the playoffs)

  10. knighttown says:

    @Gerta

    …and what do you do if you trade these guys for an offseason month of Jay-Bo and he then signs in Vancouver?

  11. B.C.B. says:

    GR: I might be overvalueing our players in the Crosby/Malkin section, but I am just trying to gage the line in the sand for the three players in combination: I didn’t know where to go with two 1st rounders and two of the three players I mentioned, and I assumed that was the next level (since most teams do not have two superstars and Pits does).
    I’d switch Gagner for Cogliano, to make that trade as well.
    Maybe it does take Hemsky ++, but if I was going to get one of those guys, I’d try to hold on to Hemmer so they could have someone to play with (and not repeat the problem Pits has now).
    What would parts be? Any two or three of this, depending on the combination: Chorney, Petry, Nash, a 2nd round pick, a late pick (say 4 or 5), Pouliot, or Nilsson.

  12. Gerta Rauss says:

    @KT

    the proposal was for a signed JayBo…no signed contract,no deal.

    Essentially it gets us a chance to sit down with JayBo prior to July 1.

  13. kris says:

    LT:

    Great stuff. I’m in nearly uniform agreement.

    But I do wonder -as Traktor does, though in his usual huffy way- why you put Staal so high.

    And I’m also confused: would you do that Cogliano-Dubinsky deal? Part of me thinks Cogliano could be one hell of a player if he got moved to the wing.

    BTW, if we need someone for the FU circle, I say we bite the bullet and grab Avery. He’s lead the league there for years.

    Gerta:

    I doubt Marleau or Thorton would waive their NTC, even if they had hockey reasons to do so, which I don’t see.

    The bay area is an awfully nice place for millionaires.

  14. Quinn says:

    Lord Bob,

    I respectfully disagree on the Kesler thing. As has been pointed out, we have a dearth of scoring d-men, so Gilbert is expendable (even if he is a potentially good player) and if I am the Vancouver GM I see Kesler as a key player, worth a big return.

    Plus Kesler is a centre playing tough minutes, his boxcars are going up every year and I believe he is pretty good FO guy.

  15. dave says:

    There is some redundancy on the D core. Grebs value is high I would move him. I would not move Vish. I could move Souray but I don’t know a reasonable return that I’d be interested in(ok I’m blinded by my man-love). Sail on Staios.

    The core up front for me: Horc, Hemsky, Penner, Gagne, O’sullivan.

    Building for Hemsky’s 3 yr peak (which is probably a mistake):
    I don’t see where Cogliano is fitting in in the future. Nilson, Brodziak, or Moreau sail on.

    I would invest in Pouliot, the potential is there for him to fill the 2C or 3C role in the future that I can’t actually see Cogliano (2C) or Brodziak (3C) filling.

    So Pouliot plays the 4th line with graviest or lowest pressure minutes.

  16. Coach pb9617 says:

    Patrick O’Sullivan: Since he’s been recently traded we have a nice trade value idea about him. I’ll say the Oilers could get Christopher Higgins or most of Trent Hunter in return.LT, you tease! The thought of Hunter on this squad makes me really happy.

    If he can be had for O’Sullivan, please make that and don’t ever look back.

    Penner – Horcoff – Hemsky
    Cogliano – Gagner – Hunter

    That’s nice. That’s really nice if there was anything near a real NHL second tough minutes line on this team.

    Veteran tough sledder – Pavelski – Pisani

    Oh yes.

    BTW – I mentioned it in my entry last night – something funkified is going on in Sharks land – Marleau left out of the annual meeting…

  17. Gerta Rauss says:

    Agreed Coach
    Marleau this year(1 more year on his deal)
    and Thornton next year if they don’t win a couple rounds.

    The window on that core group is closing unless success comes their way.

    And yes please to Trent Hunter.

  18. Traktor says:

    Hunter took a discount to stay in Long Island. There’s not a chance he gets moved.

    You know who I think would be extremely interested in O’Sullivan though?

    Pittsburgh.

    He ranked 21st in the NHL last year in total shots and every single player ahead of him makes much more money. Sid would probably turn him into a 40 goal scorer.

  19. Lowetide says:

    Lots of great comments and way less heat than I thought there’d be. I aimed too low. :-)

    Quinn: Nope. Back in the Stan Weir gameday era we decided it was the FU circle. :-)

    HBomb: I’d love to keep Gilbert, but that Souray contract kills his value imo.

    Traktor: I believe Staal is going to be special. He’s undervalued because his boxcars are getting knocked down by Crosby and Malkin. This is a perfect window for a team to pick up a “complete” player at center for less than 100 cents on the dollar. Perfect storm. And I really agree with your O’Sullivan take, the Pens should be all over him. Great point.

    Gerta: If they can get J-Bow I’d trade any defender not named Lubo and whatever else it would take up to (but not including) the two really good kids (Cogs and Gags).

    BCB: Excellent point. I understand why trading Cogs for Dubinsky doesn’t make sense for a building team. My point is that Cogliano is more valuable than his current value right now (because of his struggles).

    Coach: Hunter’s signed to a beauty deal too. He could be exceptional value through the life of the contract.

  20. Kevin says:

    I’m really tempted by the Gilbert plus salary (Nilsson, Staios etc) for JayBow’s rights. It would be, I think, devastating to the Oil’s chances if he didn’t sign however.

    I (think I) remember the whole deal with Sundin and Montreal last off season. Gainey got the exclusive right to negotiate with Mats in exchange for a (rumoured) first round pick going to TO in the event Sundin signed – does any one know how a GM might negotiate something like that? Do I just remember it wrong (very possible)? And most importantly, is that a deal Tambo could pull off with Martin (with one of Gilbert/Souray and one of Nilsson/Staios/Brodziak/Pouliot going the other way contingent on JayBow signing)?

  21. Gerta Rauss says:

    @ Kevin
    I too,remember the Sundin deal last year,but I remember it as a 2nd round pick.
    IIRC,Gainey got to talk to Sundin,no deal was consumated,and that was that.

    No assets went to Toronto.

    That’s why I’m saying this is low/no risk…and we get to talk to JayBo prior to July 1 and gauge his interest.

  22. Traktor says:

    The rights to Scott Hartnell AND Kimmo Timonen were traded for a late first round pick.

    Souray, Cogs and the 10th would make the Pronger deal look like an avalanche in Edmonton’s favor.

  23. Lowetide says:

    Traktor: If it’s strictly for the right to negotiate a deal, then draft picks are certainly the going rate. You are absolutely correct that the Flyer deal from a year ago is a good comp for any J-Bo deal (although it’ll cost more).

    The package I suggested would apply only to a signed J-Bo, which was a mistake on my part in the original post.

  24. Traktor says:

    Lowetide: I believe the rights to Hartnell and Timonen were traded for a 3rd round pick. It only became a 1st when they signed.

  25. RiversQ says:

    Kesler has insane numbers for a couple of years. The guy is really hard to play against and any team needs that. I can’t imagine Van dealing him.

  26. Traktor says:

    I believe it was a 3rd for both rights, a second if one of them signed and a 1st if they both signed.

    I’m not 100% though.

  27. Traktor says:

    RiversQ: I rate him around the 20th best center in the NHL right now.

  28. Coach pb9617 says:

    Hunter took a discount to stay in Long Island. There’s not a chance he gets moved.Understood. But in the world of Hypotheticals, he’s my #1 candidate for the RW2 on this team. Armstrong is #3 behind Cogliano.

    Overpaying for a guy that frees cap space isn’t a bad thing in this case.

  29. Nelson88 says:

    Gerta touches on something I have also been blue skying.

    What we know.
    1. The cap is going down in 10/11. The Oilers are not in great cap shape. Next offseason could be a particularly bad time to dump salary with limited demand for high priced talent.
    2. The Oilers relative strength is their D core. With the amount of cap space they have tied up one of D is likely to be gone and this year would be better than next to make the move.

    Moves.
    - Trade Souray to SJ for Marleau and a pick. 2nd round? Value might be off but SJ might be desperate enough. The cap space is almost a wash but Marleau is off the books next year when the cap crashes and Cogs and Gags need to be signed. Marleau takes a great deal of flack and much of it justified (cue Bruce) but I would take him in our top 6 for the right cost.

    - Use Nilsson to trade up to the top 6 in the draft. LT does not think it is enough but I am sticking with it ;)

    - Sign J-Bo to a 10yr, $58M deal.

    - Trade Moreau and Staois for the best draft picks you can get. I don’t have a problem with either guy (particularly steady Steve) but the contracts are too fat and better to trade them now then next year.

    - Next year you can dump Marleau’s salary or decide you like him and make moves elsewhere (Vis, Grebs, Gilbert) to accommodate.

    Marleau/Horc/Hemsky
    O’Sullivan/Gags/Cogliano
    Penner/Poo/Pisani
    JFJ/Brodziak/Stortini (McIntyre against the giants)

    JBo/Gilbert
    Vis/Smid
    Grebs/Peckham

  30. Quinn says:

    RiversQ: I rate him around the 20th best center in the NHL right now..

    So that makes him better than 1/3 of the team’s #1 centres? To my mind, well worth Gilbert’s potential (even bearing in mind the propensity of the Oil to give up on good prospects 1-2 years too early).

  31. DBO says:

    Love these threads. And you didn’t say anything out of line LT, you were pretty bang on for the most part. My 1.5 cents worth:

    - i do the Cogliano for Dubinsky trade every day and twice on Sunday. I’ve been beating this drum for a while now, but Dubinsky is everything we need in a 3C, with the potential to be a more physical version of Horcoff. Cogliano + pick/prospect for Dubinsky and i’m in.

    - I agree Gilbert gets us the most on the back end (exepting Vish, but i doubt we move him). Gilbert to Tampa for Malone? Tampa needs D, they have essentially the same contract and it fills a need, and not to mention exactly what Tambellini said he wanted for this team.

    - Nilsson and spare parts/prospects for higher picks. Package to move up. unless you can use nilsson, propsects and picks to get Halak or Harding.

    - use remaining money to sign a Beauchemin type for 3/4 D pairing, or if we have the money try and sign komisarek. i guess it would cost around $4.5 mill per season.

  32. DBO says:

    With the deals i suggested you have:

    Penner-Horc-Hemsky
    Malone-Gagner-O’Sullivan
    Moreau-Dubinsky-Pisani
    Jacques-Brodziak-Stortini

    Souray-Beauchemin/Komisarek
    Vish-Grebeshkov
    Staios-Smid
    Peckham

    Halak
    JDD

    more size, more physical play, and more balance. Just what Tambellini wanted, and we don’t sacrifice our future for a playoff run, although with this lineup we have a legit shot at the playoffs, with the cup a legit option in 2-3 years (with the core development of Gagner, O’Sullivan, Dubinsky, Penner, Hemsky, Grebeshkov, Halak, Smid, Peckham)

  33. Gerta Rauss says:

    I like Malone in our top 6.

    I like Trent Hunter more,but I take Malone.

  34. Traktor says:

    “Use Nilsson to trade up to the top 6 in the draft.”

    There’s a huge drop off after 7.

    I don’t think a 2nd rounder + 10 will get you 6th and Nilsson doesn’t have 1st round pick value at this point.

  35. Traktor says:

    “So that makes him better than 1/3 of the team’s #1 centres?”

    I think he has a stronger impact on a game than 1/3 of team’s #1C.

    And before someone asks “Well if it’s not about points then why don’t you give Horcoff his due”?

    Well because Horc has about 2% of the grit of Kesler.

    Horc might be hard to score against but he’s not hard to play against IMO.

  36. Traktor says:

    I think we need to start looking at realistic targets and I don’t see Dubinsky as a viable option.

    NY is plagued with horrible contracts and has about as much breathing room as Bob Stauffer in a pair of those old Cooperalls.

    Why exactly are they trading the one guy who will outperform his contract again?

    I honestly don’t see a huge difference in the potential of Staal and Dubinsky. Dubi has Mike Richards written all over him. You all know I love Cogs but I just don’t see why NY would trade a proven commodity for a guy who may or may not be able to play wing.

    I think if a deal was to be done it would be for one of our defenders but unfortunately they’re all priced out of NY’s range.

    Maybe Cogs+Smid could get it done but that’s pretty steep.

  37. BadSeed says:

    If Dubi's the second coming of Mike Richards, I trade both Cogs & Smid for him.

  38. Ribs says:

    Horc might be hard to score against but he’s not hard to play against IMO.

    Hah, nice. What a bum.

  39. rickibear says:

    Line in the sand:

    i look for markers that saw wow!

    My untouchable:

    Horcoff:
    One of 8C in the league that face the toughs and outscore them by a game changing rate .4/60.

    Hemsky:
    Hemsky’s last 4 years were age 22-25. How many RW have achieved .9 points/Game or better in the last 15 years. With people wanting to trade him it must be a dime a dozen.

    Lets look: the answer is 5 players in 15 years.

    1–Jaromir Jagr—1995 to 1998—PIT—1.54
    10–Ziggy Palffy—1995 to 1998—NYI—1.02
    12–Jarome Iginla—2000 to 2003—CGY—0.95
    14–Marian Hossa—2001 to 2004—OTT—0.94
    15–Ales Hemsky—2006 to 2009—EDM—0.92

    The guy IS a generational talent.

    Gagner:
    Gagner made the NHL at age 18 and averaged over .5 pts/GM.

    How many in the last 45 years:

    1 Sidney Crosby 2006 2007 PIT 1.39
    2 Dale Hawerchuk 1982 1983 WPG 1.22
    3 Jimmy Carson 1987 1988 LAK 1.16
    4 Ron Francis 1982 1983 HAR 1.14
    5 Steve Yzerman 1984 1985 DET 1.1
    6 Brian Bellows 1983 1984 MNS 0.95
    7 Ed Olczyk 1985 1986 CBH 0.87
    8 Bob Carpenter 1982 1983 WSH 0.85
    9 Jaromir Jagr 1991 1992 PIT 0.84
    10 Pierre Turgeon 1988 1989 BUF 0.83
    11 Ilya Kovalchuk 2002 2003 ATL 0.81
    12 Kirk Muller 1985 1986 NJD 0.76
    13 Trevor Linden 1989 1990 VAN 0.72
    14 Marian Gaborik 2001 2002 MIN 0.69
    15 Rick Nash 2003 2004 CBJ 0.62
    16 V Lecavalier 1999 2000 TBL 0.59
    17 Sam Gagner 2008 2009 EDM 0.58
    18 Craig Simpson 1986 1987 PIT 0.53
    19 Patrick Marleau 1998 1999 SJS 0.5
    20 Rick Hampton 1975 1976 CGS 0.5

    Nuf Said!

    Cogliano:
    Look at were cogliano ranks in history for a guys production age 20 and 21 for all forward positions.

    To give you an idea of the Skill
    Hossa #77
    Lecavalier #80
    Marleau #85
    Iginla#89
    Cogliano #97 F #45C
    Frolov #98
    Tochett #99
    Perry #102
    M. Richards #109

    Grebeshkov: and one other but elite PK skills must be addressed.

    Defencemen that were top 60 in EVGA, EVPT, PPPT.

    There are 18 Dmen:

    MIKE GREEN
    ROB BLAKE
    DAN BOYLE
    FILI PKUBA
    MAREK ZIDLICKY
    JAY BOUWMEESTER
    DENIS GREBESHKOV
    SHELDON SOURAY
    LUBOMIR VISNOVSKY
    BRIAN RAFALSKI
    NICKLAS LIDSTROM
    BRIAN CAMPBELL
    DUNCAN KEITH
    ANTON BABCHUK
    DENNIS SEIDENBERG
    JONI PITKANEN
    DENNIS WIDEMAN
    ZDENO CHARA

    My line in the sand is get players moving towards (20-27)there prime or are still in there prime.(28-33)

    We do not have alot in there prime.

  40. misfit says:

    Glad to see someone else on the Joe Pavelski bus. He’s probably not available, but he’s a terrific all-round player, and while he’s not a big man, he’s exactly what this team needs down the middle.

  41. Bruce says:

    So that makes him better than 1/3 of the team’s #1 centres?

    Closer to 1/2, given that a number of top centres are paired on the same teams (e.g. Crosby/Malkin, Datsyuk/Zetterberg). Kesler is the #2 C on his own team. I don’t disagree with ranking Kesler somewhere around #20 overall, though, higher than that if you are ranking strictly for Future Value. He’s a beauty … he would solve about 6 different problems for the Oilers. But Van City won’t be letting him go for a long, long time, especially not to a divisional and geographic rival. He’s an ideal of the type of guy we need, but he won’t be the player we get.

    To my mind, well worth Gilbert’s potential .

    Gilbert is 26 years old, Kesler 24.

    Horc has about 2% of the grit of Kesler.

    Traktor: You talking about the guy who blocked a last-second shot with his face at Joe Louis Arena? Give me a break.

    If you measure “grit” as hits + fights + scrums, sure. If you measure it as effort, hustle, two-way play, etc., Horc delivers in spades on all counts. He’s not an overly physical player but don’t kid yourself that he’s not a battler.

  42. Bruce says:

    Marleau takes a great deal of flack and much of it justified (cue Bruce)

    Nelson88: You have a long memory, it’s been a while since I railed on Marleau. You’re right I’m not a fan … he’s inconsistent and overrated. I know +/- has its flaws, but when over a decade a guy posts a career mark of +1 on a team that is a combined +262, the obvious conclusion to me is he’s not much of a difference maker. His playoff record is no hell, either, nor is that of the team he captains.

    … but I would take him in our top 6 for the right cost.

    The “right cost” is considerably less than the $6.3 MM he’s due to pull down next year. That would make him the highest-paid Oiler. The good news is that with one year left on his bloated contract he will be playing for the next one, but even assuming the year went well there is no guarantee he would sign it here, or that it would be a good idea long-term in any event.

  43. Traktor says:

    “Traktor: You talking about the guy who blocked a last-second shot with his face at Joe Louis Arena? Give me a break.”

    I’m talking about the guy who was outhit by Robert Nilsson.

    Obviously we have different opinions of the definition of “grit”.

    Makes no difference to me what you want to call it – just as long as you can recognize that Horcoff is missing the main element that makes Kesler the the player he is.

  44. kris says:

    “Horc might be hard to score against but he’s not hard to play against IMO.”

    Oh, it’s not worth debating Horc again, but…

    Isn’t the best way to “play the game” to score more goals than you allow?

    Or is this the Don Cherry/Slapshot theory of hockey that equates winning with being “gritty”?

  45. Bruce says:

    Kesler had 72 hits, Horcoff 30, which is slightly more than 2% by my math.

    Dustin Penner had 77 hits, does that mean he’s grittier than Kesler? :D

    Horcoff is missing the main element that makes Kesler the the player he is.You’re right, Kesler’s major element is that he’s an asshole. :D

  46. Nelson88 says:

    Bruce,

    We would agree on that fact he is likely overpaid. Katz has the money. The issue is cap management and building a more balanced and competitive team without gutting the future of it (ie. trading the young guys who are your best chance at out performing their contracts).

    We would miss Souray’s shot and toughness but given his contract, injury history, desire to be closer to kids, etc. it isn’t like you are trading a “building block”

  47. Dale McCartney says:

    As someone who cheers for the Oilers, but lives in Vancouver, I see a lot of Ryan Kesler. I really don’t think his “grit” is a result of physical play. He is surprisingly fast, has tremendous hustle, and is willing to drive into all the difficult areas of the ice.

    Not that unlike Horcoff, actually.

    But he is not a big hitter.

  48. Traktor says:

    This is what my ideal team would look like:

    Hartnell – Getzlaf – Brown
    Lucic – Kesler – Perry
    Armstrong – Ott – Clutterbuck
    Carcillo – Cooke – Stortini

    My favorite attribute is grease.

  49. Traktor says:

    kris: Safe to say I subscribe to the Cherry/Slapshot formula of winning games.

  50. PDO says:

    Big pass on Staal. I wouldn’t want any part of him, his contract, or his reputation as one of those mythical “True #1 C’s” based on his brother and a 30% shooting season.

    I think HBomb had a good start, and my list would be similar.

    I think after that, you take a look at the teams who WILL be making big changes. That’s where you’re find someone doing something stupid.

    So, look for teams that were upset early in the playoffs, are headed towards cap hell, or missed the playoffs when they were expected to make some noise.

    Boston, SJS, Philly, NYR, Florida, Ottawa, Montreal, Dallas, Buffalo…

    Don’t bother including divisional rivals… so no need to include Calgary and Minnesota.

    I think SJS would be extremely interested in Souray, and I can see Souray being interested in going there. Guy to go after is certainly Pavelski.

    Ethan Moreau and Steve Staios both strike me as guys that Philly (bonus points for being a traditional trading partner) and Boston would be interested in. Likely go after a pick or so and go from there.

    Though 2 years of Staios for a year of McKee would be fantastic.

    Certainly inquire if Rask is available. I somehow doubt a team pinned to the cap wants to spend $9,000,000 on goaltending.

    Buffalo is another team on a budget, and close to it. Plus they just missed the playoffs. Certainly worth a phone call, and the pieces worth asking about are Vanek and Stafford…

    Eriksson, Ott and Neal are all FA’s of one type or another, and I imagine that Tambs would love any of the three. Asking price would be interesting… but with Zubov likely retiring, I wonder how much value Gilbert (does his birth certificate garner even a bit more value here?) would have…

    FLA… you’re looking for JayBouw’s rights, and not giving much for them. Outside of that, Vokoun could be available…

    I’d offer Nilsson straight up for Halak, and balk if Montreal expected anything more for a goalie.

    Ottawa I’d be looking at Phillips, Volchenkov, and I’d just throw the idea out at Heatley just to see what it’d cost before realizing it was far too much.

    So after looking at that…

    I’d find out what Dallas thought of Erikkson for Gilbert, hopefully flip Nilsson for Halak, deal Moreau and Staios for picks, and use the cap space on a D.

    Beauchemin? Zanon? Ohlund?

    I’d like to get a real asshole to play the Regehr role personally…

  51. Matt N says:

    Good reviews on Alex Plante. They had better get him signed before June 1.

    http://thepipelineshow.blogspot.com/2009/05/power-plante.html

  52. HBomb says:

    Traktor: Any team worth it’s weight in salt has a good greasy element to it.

    That being said, just because a player isn’t super-gritty doesn’t mean he’s worthless. A good mix is nice.

    Anyways, who here thinks Getzlaf has moved into the discussion regarding “forward you’d take if you could have any guy in the NHL not named Crosby or Ovechkin”?

    Joffrey fucking Lupul. Wherever you are Kevin Lowe, fuck you and your bending over for Burkie.

  53. dstaples says:

    Kesler for Gilbert? Yes, please.

    But now it’s your turn to over-rate one of our guys, LT ;)

    Gilbert has value, but I strongly doubt he would bring in Kesler, especially if Vancouver scouts watched him in his own end.

  54. dstaples says:

    As for Horc, he’s got as much grit as any Oilers forward, Ethan Moreau and Zack Stortini included, who are more obvious in the grit department.

    But Horc is fierce on the boards, for instance, ramming his backside into other players to gain puck possession, one of his favourite tricks.

    How about Moreau for PK ace Joel Ward of Nashville? Of course, Ward is a UFA, last time I checked, so he could be had for the top bid, anyway, but that moves a contract, opens up a role.

  55. PDO says:

    So…

    Two questions:

    #1)

    What does Cogliano + Gilbert + 10th OV get you?

    #2)

    What does Hemsky + Cogliano get you?

  56. HBomb says:

    Gilbert has value, but I strongly doubt he would bring in Kesler, especially if Vancouver scouts watched him in his own end.

    The guy is more competent in his own end than Grebeshkov and Souray. How exactly is Gilbert a guy that the majority of Oiler fans want shipped out? Makes zero sense…

  57. Lowetide says:

    PDO: It should get you an outstanding player but it takes two to tango. The problem with trolling for a Pronger is that the other GM needs to be willing to deal.

  58. PDO says:

    The guy is more competent in his own end than Grebeshkov and Souray. How exactly is Gilbert a guy that the majority of Oiler fans want shipped out? Makes zero sense…

    He doesn’t hit. He can’t toe drag. He doesn’t have a great shot.

    Therefore, he sucks.

    Duh.

  59. Lowetide says:

    HBomb: Gilbert is certainly a guy to keep, but with Lubo and Grebeshkov also here and Souray (imo) a contract that isn’t likely to be traded for equal value–Gilbert is the obvious choice.

    He’s a helluva player, which is why he’s more likely to be traded than Grebeshkov (higher established value).

  60. PDO says:

    LT:

    Few names I’ll throw out that could be available due to cap constraints/shake ups.. and I’m not saying either package gets it done for any of the mentioned players ;).

    Malkin (VERY unlikely, but he’s faded two playoffs in a row and that’s going to get some attention).

    Semin … makes $5,000,000 next season, and then is an RFA who’ll be looking for a raise.

    Kovalchuk – pending UFA.

    Patrice Bergeron. Hasn’t been the same since the concussion and has been rather invisible for Boston…. and Boston is in cap hell.

    Nathan Horton in FLA. They missed the playoffs. Again.

    Spezza/Heatley?

    Thornton?

    Just throwing the guys out there who could be available and are, at the very least, famous.

    … Chicago just had a certain goal taken away by an obvious hook on the hands and no call. I swear refs in Vancouver have been getting paid off for longer than I can remember. By both the Canucks and the Lions.

  61. HBomb says:

    I like David Bolland.

    Go Chicago go. This Hughson homer-ism has me utterly disgusted.

  62. Coach pb9617 says:

    New words are going to be invented in order to describe Patrick Kane.

  63. HBomb says:

    Canuck fans “pelting the ice with debris” after the officials call a pretty obvious holding call on Kesler.

    Idiots.

  64. Lowetide says:

    I don’t understand what the hell Simpson is talking about–sitting on a one-goal lead is death.

    Death!

    Man that’s bad color commentating.

  65. HBomb says:

    Lowetide: All the good color and PBP guys work for TSN. This is just fact.

    Can Chicago finish this thing Monday night? The turnaround in the Windy City in two short years is remarkable.

  66. PDO says:

    HBomb:

    I bet a hefty sum on Vancouver to win the series.

    After G4, I arbed out of it… and I’ve made a killing tonight, and expect to make more than enough to make up for originally betting on the Nucks ;)

    The fat lady is singing, it’s all over.

    GO HAWKS GO!

    BTW – Kesler colliding with that other Canuck was epic.

  67. bookie says:

    I don’t understand what the hell Simpson is talking about–sitting on a one-goal lead is death. He learned everything he knows from MacT!

  68. PDO says:

    Dying seconds of Game 5, Oilers @ Wings:

    Shawn Horcoff blocks shot with face to win game.

    Dying seconds of Game 5, Blachawks @ Canucks:

    Ryan Kesler blows his own teammate up, setting up Havlat for a breakaway on an empty net.

    Hah.

  69. Lowetide says:

    I swear we could go back to 2006 and hear those clowns rambling on about the Oilers trying to protect the lead too early.

    Hughson and Simpson are enjoyable except when they’re calling VAN (Hughson’s bias is obvious) or EDM (Simpson tries too hard to be fair).

    But Simpson said something like this tonight: “And again you have to talk about protecting the lead. In the games Vancouver has won it worked out but in the last two games it’s been a factor.”

    It’s ALWAYS a factor!!!! You might win by a hair, but it’s the hockey equivalent of the prevent defense. Death!!!!

    Stop. doing. it. Vancouver.

    Vigneault is a Pakled.

  70. PDO says:

    Stop. doing. it. Vancouver.

    No no no… KEEP doing it.

    This is fantastic.

  71. Traktor says:

    PDO:

    Horcoff’s 3 goals in the last 24 games of the season was a major contributing factor as to why Edmonton missed the playoffs this year. I really don’t see why you’re boasting about what he did 3 years ago.

  72. dstaples says:

    You’re likely right about Souray’s contract, LT, but he’s the one I’d move first, if there was some choice in the matter. His value is as high as it’s going to be, and not every NHL GM is so smart as not to be blinded by his great counting numbers this year.

    Of course, Souray has also got
    a no-movement clause for this year.

    As for Gilbert, he leaked more goals against than any other Oilers defencemen IMO, so I’m not so high him as some are. He’s good-to-great with the puck, not at all good or great without it.

  73. PDO says:

    Horcoff’s 3 goals in the last 24 games of the season was a major contributing factor as to why Edmonton missed the playoffs this year. I really don’t see why you’re boasting about what he did 3 years ago.

    Which was a direct result of having one center on the team who shaves, which was a much larger reason.

  74. Mark-Ryan says:

    HBomb: In which world is Tom Gilbert better than Grebs or Souray in his own zone? The alternate one where he engages in puck battles and actually manages to use his skill-set instead of reversing the puck and getting pinned until Grebeshkov bails him out? (/run-on)

    I think people are stuck on his first few months. Grebeshkov has been consistently superior to him for 9 of their 12 month careers IMHO, and the numbers reflect it.

    Souray, meanwhile, just played more minutes against better competition and got better results. Damn his inferiority.

    If it were up to me I’d flip Gilbert and Staios, take a run at Komisarek and Foster for the same price-tag and clear some dead money at forward.

  75. Lowetide says:

    Gilbert (in a way) is the new Horcoff in that he plays no matter the injury and does what is asked no matter how well his skill set matches the chore.

    Good team player.

    For the record, I’d rank the Oilers D in terms of depth as follows:

    1. Lubo
    2. Gilbert
    3. Souray
    4. Grebeshkov
    5. Staois
    6. Smid
    7. Peckham
    8. Strudwick

    As David Staples mentioned, Souray’s the guy to trade if you can get full value but that contract in this summer isn’t going to be as attractive.

    Gilbert’s a wonderful player.

  76. Mark-Ryan says:

    I just don’t get it.

    Souray played more, against better players, had a better Corsi, threw more hits, killed penalties better, played the PP better, got lit up less at even strength playing with worse players AND Gilbert is somehow better because he got threw into situations and only got marginally lit-up?

    Makes no sense to me whatsoever.

  77. Lowetide says:

    Mark Ryan: His cap hit is 5.4M, he’s extremely one dimensional offensively (Sheldon Souray is not a good outlet passer, he’s not mobile and he’s not a quick thinker) and he can be beaten wide (this is death for defensemen as they age) already.

    He’s got a rather long injury history and there are three expensive seasons on his contract, at least one of which will likely involve either a major injury or extreme reduction in effectiveness due to aging/wear and tear.

    He’s just not as valuable an asset.

  78. Vic Ferrari says:

    I can’t imagine the Sharks being interested in Souray. Firstly he shoots left, and Thornton much prefers the right boards. Doug Wilson has managed to get two of the better right shooting PP defencemen onto his roster (Blake and Boyle). Ans S.J probably won’t be a cap team next year, can they afford that kind of cash for a guy whose best fit will be on the second PP unit? He’s a decent 5v5 defender as well, but that’s not something that you pay big money for.

  79. Vic Ferrari says:

    On Gilbert, talk radio callers have lost the love, I can tell you that. A lot of his mistakes ended up in his own net in the back half of the season. That’s what has hurt the perception IMO. Plus a lot of them seemed to come at the worst times, in terms of the time and score on the clock. Stuff happens, he’s a good player.

    He didn’t have the benefit of playing with Visnovsky this past season, so his scoring chance and underlying numbers aren’t as good as Grebeshkov or Souray. Sans-Vis, he’s better.

    The problem with Gilbert is his contract, it feels a million per year high to me. Then agains you could say the same for two thirds of this roster. It’s death by a thousand knives, it would be easier if there were just a couple of horrendous contracts on the books, but there are none. Just a whack of marginal overpays. Tambellini has his work cut out for him.

    And remember, it could be far worse, the Oilers could have given up a whack of first rounders for the right to overpay Vanek, and then brought Nylander in on an unmovable squillion dollar deal. The Penner and Souray deals, as alternatives, look good under that ultraviolet light.

  80. Vic Ferrari says:

    I’m with the vast majority here, the concensus being that the Oilers need competitive 5v5 forwards, guys that are hard to play against (in the hockey sense, not necessarily the ‘grit’, ‘big hit’ or agitator sense).

    And the guys listed by yourself and others (Hunter, Armstrong, J.Staal, Kesler, Pavelski) are all exactly the type of guys this team needs. Pisani is one of those guys if he ever starts winning puck battles like he used to do, but at some point we might have to acknowledge that he’s never going to get back to that level. I hope I’m wrong.

    Tyler Kennedy who, at least by cpb’s analysis, fits the bill. Hanzal another from cpb iirc, though I haven’t seen the latter good, and it’s a small sample.

    The problem with all of these guys is that they are surely on the short list of players that GMs have no intention of moving.

  81. Bruce says:

    A lot of his mistakes ended up in his own net in the back half of the season. Plus a lot of them seemed to come at the worst times, in terms of the time and score on the clock.

    Right you are, Vic. There were at least four HOME games where Gilbert made a major defensive error that cost a criticial goal, typically a game-loser in the third. One that springs instantly to mind was against Columbus when Gilbert just wandered around in the BJ’s zone, didn’t read the play as the weakside D, and Torres got behind him for the third period breakaway that broke a scoreless tie. Final score, 1-0. There was another against Nashville where Gilbert didn’t read the play or identify his man and didn’t hustle, resulting in the winning goal against in a 2-1 regulation loss to Nashville. Then in that string of OT losses there was one of them where he stood still at centre ice and tried to bat down a lobbed puck, missed, and Marty Sakic got a breakaway and scored. HUA defensive blunders in home losses to playoff rivals and/or weak sisters are not the sort of thing people forget, even if cumulatively such individual plays can be swept under the statistical rug.

    Gilbert played well much of the time, but he is not strong without the puck and his game requires that his head be in the game at all times. While some of his shortcomings will be reduced or disappear with experience, he’s by far the softest blueliner on the team and it’s hard to envision that changing. He’s not at all “difficult to play against”.

    The problem with Gilbert is his contract, it feels a million per year high to me.I agree, Vic, he’s a significant overpay. Not the only one, unfortunately.

  82. Mark-Ryan says:

    Vic: Is there even a single stat that supports Grebeshkov was a product of Lubomir Visnovsky this season?

    Grebs had 16 points and was a +6 in 32 games without Lubomir Visnovsky. His GFON numbers didn’t take a hit, even though the team as a whole probably did. Did his GA?

    He was CLEARLY the superior player of the Grebeshkov-Gilbert pairing when they paired together. The coach saw it, that’s why Grebeshkov was getting more minutes towards the end of the season.

    I don’t know how many times I saw Gilbert do something stupid and lazy like reverse to nobody only and get himself pinned in his own end. Grebeshkov never makes those mistakes. If the puck is on his stick, it’s probably going to be on the stick of the forward coming up the wall.

    Lowetide: So he’s older and makes more money? Hey, I don’t disagree that over the long term, Gilbert is the better option. I just don’t see how he was, in any real way, a superior defenseman last season. From my stand-point, it shouldn’t even be a conversation. Souray got way better results in less ideal circumstances playing a role with little or no insulation.

  83. godot10 says:

    Gilbert played hurt all year.

    Before Visnovsky got hurt, Gilbert and Souray played tougher minutes than Visnovsky and Grebeshkov.

    Brian Rafalski doesn’t kill people either. Pair Gilbert with a more physical/stay-at-home partner.

    Gilbert was the defenseman who was adjusting his game so the guy he was playing with wouldn’t have to adjust theirs.

    Plus, it was his sophomore slump year.

    Note: I only reluctantly part with Gilbert if JayBo is signed. If JayBo is signed, I desparately try to find Souray the California destination he wants before I trade Gilbert.

    I can’t believe at all the Gilbert-”hate” out there. He is a good defenseman with quality offensive skills and solid character signed to a reasonable long term contract.

  84. misfit says:

    You’re likely right about Souray’s contract, LT, but he’s the one I’d move first, if there was some choice in the matter. His value is as high as it’s going to be, and not every NHL GM is so smart as not to be blinded by his great counting numbers this yearI agree. My only problem is that I don’t know if I trust Tambellini isn’t one of those GMs himself. At least not yet

  85. Bruce says:

    I can’t believe at all the Gilbert-”hate” out there.

    Hate is such a strong word.

    He is a good defenseman

    Agreed.

    with quality offensive skills

    Agreed.

    and solid character

    That has yet to be demonstrated to my satisfaction. Jury’s out.

    signed to a reasonable long term contract.

    I must be old school, cuz “reasonable” isn’t a word I’d use to describe a $24 MM contract for a guy with one year of NHL experience.

  86. Don says:

    Not sure why you bring up Souray’s injuries as part of his depreciated value, but give Moreau a free pass in this regard. I think you have Souray under-rated a bit, and the opposite for the captain. Moreau did manage to score 14 goals on an offensively challenged team this past year, but had a fair number of them while playing on one of the first 2 lines at times in October and November, due to the incumbents inability to produce. His recent penchant for taking multiple dumb penalties at crucial times also helps diminish his value.

  87. Dennis says:

    I think 77 was money the first half of ’08 and then 37 was money in the second half and it seemed like 77 couldn’t put it all together for ’09.

    But, the good news was that he was hurt this season so maybe we can chalk it up to something like that.

  88. Bruce says:

    the good news was that he was hurtSo Dennis, Gilbert being susceptible to injury is good news, Visnovsky being susceptible to injury is meh, and Souray being susceptible to injury is a trade-this-guy-the-fuck-out-of-here offence?

    :)

  89. Dennis says:

    Bruce: 71 when healthy is money but I take your point. 44 was the Habs Souray at season’s end and I think that makes a lot of sense. 77′s young enough that one injury doesn’t make him prone, as it were:)

    PS: go suck a rock:)

  90. Bruce says:

    one injury doesn’t make him prone, as it were:)
    Ha! Good one.

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