Approximate Trade Value

Fans overestimate the value of their team’s players in terms of trade possibilities. It is a universal truth. I don’t remember anyone saying “we’re not going to trade Esa unless Doug Weight comes the other way” but I do recall having an online shouting match with someone named Diablo Canyon over the value of Doug Weight back in 2000-01.

My argument was that the Oilers would get both Jochen Hecht and Ladislav Nagy, and his argument was the Oilers would get one of them and change. Turns out Nagy was shipped out before the Oildrop had a chance to get him in return and so it was indeed Hecht, Marty Reasoner and change for Doug Weight when the deal went down.

As an aged fan I always try to tip the scales a little the other way, so as to at least be in the ballpark when the news hits the Al Gore about the latest trade.

I’m not especially good at predictions but get some right from time to time and have a healthy enough ego to believe (even if it’s an inside voice) that the Oilers would fare better if they just did what I told them to do.

I’ll write another post like that one on June 30, but for now I thought it might be fun to post a “line in the sand” for each Oiler player who might be in the trade mix this summer. In some cases I’ll list a specific number (draft pick) and in others I’ll name names. Please join in.

  • Ales Hemsky: I think the Oilers could get a lot for him. He’s the modern Rick Middleton and has many years of terrific quality (at fair prices) ahead of him. I think he’s well clear of Frolov and Horton, and would consider his price to be shy of Jordan Staal territory. Hemsky on Crosby’s (or Malkin’s) wing would be music. I also believe Hemsky gets you in the Tomas Vanek, Anze Kopitar conversation.
  • Lubomir Visnovsky: I think the Oilers could get a lot for him. His value certainly didn’t decrease during his Edmonton season, so a good center plus a big defender who is useful should be the target. I think he gets you in the Joe Pavelski conversation with money being the only concern from the other side. He’s a beauty.
  • Tom Gilbert: He’s the likely ticket out of town, but he’s a good player so the Oilers will need to make a wise decision. My guess is that Gilbert would net you a very good center who can play a quality overall game, someone like Ryan Kesler and will also mention Pavelski here (he’s a good faceoff man with terrific skills).
  • Sheldon Souray: I don’t think his value would be exceptional based on his season. Souray has a lot of flaws and injury history for a man making his money at his age. I’ll say you could get Eric Brewer or Scott Hannan in return, plus maybe a pick in the #40-70 range in each instance (depending on which GM made the phonecall). In order for him to be part of a Jay-Bo deal the Oilers would have to add a lot to the deal in my opinion. Cogliano and the pick at 10 for Bouwmeester and a little bit. That kind of deal.
  • Dustin Penner: The contract gets a lot of attention but is certainly movable, even in this day and age. Penner’s not nothing, he has had two decent-to-good seasons and is solid when playing with his team’s best (and against middling competition). He’s Tim Wallach 1987, a guy who can help offensively when there are better players all around him. A recent David Staples article overrates him, but David has the right idea in the Penner’s value is/should be obvious to fans and therefore extremely obvious to teams looking to improve this summer. The trade would probably involve an overpaid player coming back, so I’ll suggest Ryan Malone or Mike Fisher.
  • Ethan Moreau: He’s a guy I believe we can overrate in trade a little, because he’s pretty famous for what he brings. Moreau’s a captain, he’s played many years for the Oilers and we can’t forget that he’s been doing things for over a decade in some of these rinks in front of the NHL braintrusts. I think people will be surprised by the return, and will suggest Jason Chimera or Daniel Winnik as possible return.
  • Robert Nilsson: At this point he’s throw-in, but I think he has value. It was just one year ago that Nilsson’s 5×5/60 was 2.37 (behind only Horcoff) and given the right situation he could help a team. His cap number is 2.0M. I’ll say his value is a 4th round pick at this point, say 95-110 overall. I’d also love to see him dealt to the Habs in a trade for Halak, with perhaps a flip of the first rounders making it even.
  • Andrew Cogliano: I know he’s horrible in the FU circle and he can’t (apparently) play LW, but sooner or later some coach will figure out where to play him and he’s building a pretty nice offensive foundation. Recent Oilers history isn’t full of forwards who’ve scored 36 goals in their first two NHL seasons. I’ll say his value is equal to Brandon Dubinsky and well clear of Nick Foligno.
  • Marc Pouliot: A similar value to Nilsson, probably a bit less despite the fact I think he’s a better player. I’ll say a pick between 120-150 overall.
  • Patrick O’Sullivan: Since he’s been recently traded we have a nice trade value idea about him. I’ll say the Oilers could get Christopher Higgins or most of Trent Hunter in return.
  • JF Jacques: I’ll say he’s in the same ballpark as Pouliot, maybe a hair less expensive because of his recent injury. #150 overall.
  • Kyle Brodziak: His value is low because of the situations he played in this past season. However, I think NHL GM’s are a pretty smart lot and will guess that Brodziak could bring back a pick in the 3rd round. Say 80th overall.
  • Steve Staios: I think he’s probably going to be traded, and would suggest it’ll be for a pick or young mid-level prospect. He could also be acquired for a different contract (I’ll trade you my 2-year Staios contract for your 1-year McKee) but it’ll be a salary dump of some sort ala Raffi Torres last summer.

Okay, fire away. Rants are encouraged, but please add your “line in the sand” after you bury me. :-)

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