Cogliano versus O’Sullivan

Many years ago, the Montreal Expos decided they could cheat a little on defense by playing some of their hitters out of position. They used Hubie Brooks at shortstop even though he had little range and an erratic arm. They used Vance Law at second base even though he had no range at all. Both of them were third basemen with their former teams, but Tim Wallach was established at the hot corner.

So, for a time, the Expos had a third baseman playing every infield position but first base. Wallach was an excellent defensive third baseman (he may have won a gold glove when Schmidt retired, I don’t remember) and Andres Galarraga was outstanding at 1b.

They won a lot of games over a period of three or four years, and they were in some pennant races, but they booted the fall a fair amount too. I’d give tons of credit to Tim Raines and Buck Rodgers, who had one of the most incredible seasons in history in terms of saving scrap heap starters (Dennis Martinez, Pascual Perez, etc).

We’ve talked a lot about balance on this blog in the last couple of years. The Oilers off-season roster boasts the following forwards who are listed as being 6 feet or less and 200 pounds or fewer:

  • Ales Hemsky (6.0, 192)
  • Sam Gagner (5.11, 191)
  • Andrew Cogliano (5.10, 184)
  • Patrick O’Sullivan (5.11, 190)
  • Robert Nilsson (5.11, 185)
  • Liam Reddox (5.10, 180)

And these are just the guys who played in the NHL most of the season. Bubbling under are Gilbert Brule (5.10, 180), Rob Schremp (5.11, 200), Ryan Potulny (6.0, 190), Jordan Eberle (5.10, 174), Tyler Spurgeon (5.10, 188), Tim Sestito (5.11, 195). I understand that size isn’t a perfect reflection of a players grit, but just how many of these skilled, finesse types can you run out there every night?

I decided to break this down in terms of minutes. How many minutes did the Oilers devote last season to skilled, finesse players who were safely in the top 12?

  • Hemsky-1342
  • Gagner-1273
  • Cogliano-1181
  • Nilsson-972
  • O’Sullivan-348

I’ve excluded Reddox because he doesn’t fit the skill portion of the exercise. That’s 5,116 minutes devoted to players who are skilled but aren’t big men. For the purpose of this post, I’m going to ignore the fact that Hemsky doesn’t back down and that Gagner is a fiesty bugger. GM Tambellini has suggested this team needs more grit, and 5,000 minutes for these players is a nice place to start. Let’s look at the NW champion:

  • Pavol Demitra-1206
  • Kyle Wellwood-1021
  • Mason Raymond-987

You can argue Rick Rypien should be included, but I’m satisfied this is the group we should be taking about. That’s 3,214 minutes for the Canucks, meaning the Oilers are devoting a lot of at-bats to undersized players. It’s also very obvious (and I’ve railed about this many times before), but the Oilers devoted way too many minutes to inexperienced players over the last two seasons.

I think there’s a very good chance that Tambellini decides to keep Hemsky, Gagner and then one of Cogliano or O’Sullivan. I can’t see Nilsson on this team come the fall. So it comes down to Cogs versus POS:

Andrew Cogliano

  • Boxcars: 82gp, 18-20-38, 20pims
  • Shots: 116
  • Plus Minus: -6
  • Corsi: -4.4
  • GF/GA ON: 36-37
  • 5×5/60: 1.69
  • 5×4/60: 3.39
  • Quality of Competition: 3rd level
  • Quality of Teammates: 3rd level
  • FO %: 37.2% in 702 sorties
  • 09-10 Cap Hit: $.850M(nhlnumbers.com)

Patrick O’Sullivan

  • Boxcars: 81gp, 16-27-43, 28pims
  • Shots: 259
  • Plus Minus: -6
  • Corsi: 7.2
  • GF/GA ON: 46-48
  • 5×5/60: 1.69
  • 5×4/60: 2.05
  • Quality of Competition: 2nd level
  • Quality of Teammates: 3rd level
  • FO %: 41.4% in 99 sorties
  • 09-10 Cap Hit: $2.925M (nhlnumbers.com)

Some things really stand out here: O’Sullivan is a real shooter, something this roster needs badly. Cogliano can score goals and put up offense, and has done it without playing big minutes with exceptional veteran skill players (for the most part). They are similar players in many ways, O’Sullivan’s numbers suffered greatly after coming over to Edmonton and we need to factor that in too. I’d like them to retain both players, but honestly can’t see how the new coach will be able to use so many undersized finesse players. Cogliano’s salary and fame probably make him more attractive to another team in terms of trade.

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51 Responses to "Cogliano versus O’Sullivan"

  1. Traktor says:

    Clutterbuck – 5’11 – 356 hits
    Callahan – 5’11 – 265 hits
    Cooke – 5’11 – 262 hits
    Asham – 5’11 – 143 hits
    Kaleta – 5’11 – 137 hits
    Tootoo – 5’9 – 129 hits

    Horcoff – 6’2 – 30 hits
    Gagner – 5’11 – 28 hits

    Cogliano might be under 6 foot but the funny thing is he’s our most aggressive player in the top 6.

  2. Traktor says:

    Fisher – 211 hits

    Would Ottawa do a Horcoff for Fisher deal?

    That would make us much harder to play against in a hurry.

    Plus we save a million on the cap.

    Fisher has an elite snapshot as well which would be much more beneficial to the club rather than Horc’s play making abilities.

  3. Mr DeBakey says:

    It’s not entirely about hits.

    MacT said about Kotalik,
    “He’s won more pucks along the boards than anyone all season”
    - or words to that effect.

    Would O’Sullivan get the Oilers Hartnell?
    It’s save the Flyers a Million+ on the cap.
    Or better yet, Would Moreau?

  4. Traktor says:

    “MacT said about Kotalik,
    “He’s won more pucks along the boards than anyone all season”
    - or words to that effect.”

    MacT also said that “Reddox just crawls out of bed and executes.”

    Or

    “Strudwick plays flawless hockey.”

    I agree though that it’s not just about hits.

    “Would O’Sullivan get the Oilers Hartnell?”

    I doubt it. They already got guys like Claude Giroux and JVR ready to step in so if they deal a premium asset like Hartnell it will probably be for a goalie or defender.

    I don’t think they’re selling him for any less than 99 cents on the dollar though if that’s what you were thinking.

  5. Coach pb9617 says:

    They could be kept if the lineup was something akin to:

    Penner – Horcoff – Hemsky
    O’Sullivan- Gagner – Armstrong
    Cogliano – Hanzal – Pisani
    Jacques – Brodziak – Stortini

  6. speeds says:

    I understand that size isn’t a perfect reflection of a players grit, but just how many of these skilled, finesse types can you run out there every night?.

    I think you can run 12, if they are good enough.

  7. Coach pb9617 says:

    Penner – Horcoff – Hemsky
    O’Sullivan- Gagner – Armstrong
    Cogliano – Hanzal – Pisani
    Jacques – Brodziak – Stortini
    .

    Actually, now that I look at it and as long as I’m dreaming the dream:

    Penner – Horcoff – Hemsky
    O’Sullivan – Hanzal – Armstrong
    Cogliano – Gagner – Pisani
    Jacques – Brodziak – Stortini

    THAT is a second minutes line with size and grit that would eat people up and handle tough minutes when necessary. It leaves the kids with Pisani to shred some easy minutes.

    Hmmmm could Souray, Nilsson, Staios, Moreau, Pouliot, Wild, and a second land Hanzal and Armstrong ? Please?

  8. Traktor says:

    Coach:

    I like your additions but I would roll:

    O’Sullivan – Hanzel – Pisani
    Cogliano – Gagner – Armstrong

    It would be a crime not to play two defensive wizards like Pisani and Hanzel together. I think Cogs and Gagner would both get some added confidence having a prick like Armstrong on their line. Colby would probably generate a ton of open space for the kids too because he’s hated and targeted by the opposition.

  9. Ducey says:

    Boston Bruins:
    Axelsson 6’1″ 188
    Kessel 6′ 180
    Kobasew 6′ 192
    Krijci 6′ 177
    Recchi 5’10″ 195
    Ryder 6′ 186
    Savard 5’10″ 191

    Throw in Ference and Wideman on D and Boston has done alright with “small” players. Its a matter of supplementing them with some bigger, tougher players who can actually play hockey.

  10. Coach pb9617 says:

    Penner – Horcoff – Hemsky
    O’Sullivan – Hanzal – Pisani
    Cogliano – Gagner – Armstrong
    Jacques – Brodziak – Stortini
    .

    Yes. I like that. Established tough-minutes guys on each line. Added size in Hanzal and Armstrong. Added grit in Hanzal and Armstrong. And the Oilers very own pest in Armstrong.

    Primary penalty killers in Horcoff, Hanzal, Pisani and O’Sullivan. Secondary penalty killers in Brodziak, Armstrong and Cogliano.

    Depth down the middle, depth down the right, depth down the left and a fourth line that should bang and scratch.

    Dear Steve,

    Please trade Souray, Nilsson, Staios, Moreau, Pouliot, Wild, a second and any other spare parts for Hanzal and Armstrong.

  11. oilerdago says:

    Coach/Traktor: I can live w/either option you've laid out for a 2nd/3rd line. Grit, scoring, penalty killers and Cogs where he belongs – on the wing.

    I'd hate to trade Cogliano at this point of his career. He scored 18 goals last season as a 3rd line who is only 21 years old. That's too much ability to trade unless you are getting something incredible back.

    He may not have enough grit but he's got speed that forces other teams to back off him – create space.

    While I know it's been said that a lot of teams have called asking for him, it's obvious no one has offered anything to knock management's socks off. They need to think long & hard about this one.

    And LT: that was an excellent analogy on the Expo's. Boy that was a good offensive team.

  12. Ducey says:

    Detroit:
    Datsyuk 5’11″ 194
    Draper 5’10 188
    Filppula 6′ 193
    Helm 5’11″ 172
    Hudler 5’10″ 182
    Zetterberg 5’11″ 195

    Chicago:
    Versteeg 5’10″ 180
    Bolland 6 181
    Kane 5’10″ 175
    Havlat (big but hardly gritty)

  13. Lowetide says:

    speeds: I think sooner or later you’re going to need some bigger men (and certainly a center with size).

    As for the posts quoting “hits”, all I can say is that the NHL appears to track hits by ouija board and it’s not really a credible stat imo.

    Plus of course we’re talking about balance on the roster. I think the Oilers devoted to many at-bats this season to players with the same skills and similar lack of dimension.

    I think that’s what will get one of the smaller men (aside from Nilsson) traded this summer.

  14. knighttown says:

    Great post LT. I’ve been reading your last number of posts and secretly questioning whether there are too many small forwards on the Oilers or was this today’s red herring.

    I believe your group is extremely fair (thanks for excluding Reddox) yet you need to go further and compare to the entire Northwest…please?

  15. Lowetide says:

    knighttown: I’ll have more NW comparisons in later posts, but they have to do with NHL experience. At a guess I’d say Edmonton is well clear of the other NW teams, although Calgary ran Cammalleri, Lombardi and a couple of their newer players for much of the season.

  16. Traktor says:

    “As for the posts quoting “hits”, all I can say is that the NHL appears to track hits by ouija board and it’s not really a credible stat imo.”

    That stat is useless 95% of the time when comparing two players from different rosters.

    I think comparing the stats of two plays on the same team we get a pretty accurate description though.

    Moreau, Staios, Stortini, Smid and Souray were the top 5 ranked Oilers in the hitting department – that would probably be the guesses of most if they were unable to look at the stats anyways. It’s pretty reliable just comparing one team of players.

    So when the stats tell us that Shawn Horcoff was outhit by Robert Nilsson it gives us a great depth of information about the type of player that Shawn Horcoff is. A player with very little aggression.

    I hate to bring up 10 as much as you all hate reading my thoughts on him but I’m not sure Horcoff matches the identity that Tambellini is trying to create.

    Don’t get me wrong – every team needs a Horcoff.. but as the highest paid player and face of the franchise?

    I don’t think he’s safe.

  17. Lowetide says:

    Traktor: I can’t agree. Horcoff’s hit total is significant–it tells us what he doesn’t bring–but implying he’s not physical is extremely unfair. If we counted battles along the boards, in the faceoff circle, etc, Horcoff would shine.

    He’s a very physcial player imo. Plus of course hits are tracked so poorly by the NHL that they could just post numbers randomnly and have as much credibility as the current numbers.

  18. HBomb says:

    Traktor: He’s only unsafe if you think you can find a significant upgrade at a reasonable price.

    Spezza and Lecavalier are out of the “big 18″ and might both be available – but Lecavalier’s deal is cumbersome (plus some argue he’s overrated – I might buy it to a point, but the guy is an elite talent flat out and would be an upgrade), and while Spezza is also an elite talent, would he mesh with Hemsky and bring that “different element”? Moreso, if the Sens want Horcoff plus Gilbert for him, would that be a smart trade?

    I see precisely one scenario where Horcoff is “unsafe” this summer – IF they could land Henrik and Daniel. I don’t include H. Sedin in my “big 18″ generally, but at the very least, he’s at the top of the second tier and would come along with a 1LW who can finish in D. Sedin.

    If that package deal is on the table and the Oilers can make it – NO big salary is safe (Penner, Horcoff, Visnovsky, Souray, Gilbert, Staios, Pisani or Moreau). They’d be moving at least three of the above to make it work, and two of those would have to be two of the first four names.

    And it would likely be very much worth it, IMO.

  19. Chris says:

    I’m not sure that we need to remove one of O’Sullivan and Cogliano. I can see one of them getting traded if we’re making a move to get a first line player but otherwise I think they’re both useful pieces for the organization to hang onto.

    Gagner-O’Sullivan-Cogliano as a second line seems like it should have the potential to generate some offense. Were I Tambelini, and I’m not, I’d probably be looking at trying to add some more sandpaper in the bottom six. I’d also probably be trying to work Dustin Penner into some sort of psychotic rage by playing subliminal messages of MacT mocking him to him to see if he could be encouraged to play more physical.

    I think the real problem here wasn’t that our top six was two small per say but that we didn’t execute a sufficiently agressive forecheck and that out grinders didn’t grind that much. I see the Oilers as needing to add grit at the 3rd line centre position and to find better options at the 3rd and 4th line left wing positions. Reddix is too small for my bottom six and I disagree with MacT that he’s a top six option.

    The only bottom six player I think we can really be satisfied with at the moment is Sortini. He had an excellent season. I’d keep Pisani because he was coming back from illness and had an off season. Hopefully he’s back to form this following year as when he’s on his game he’s a tough player to play against. Brodziak also has shown some nice things, but both he and Horcoff seemed to be asked to carry a heck of a lot of the load for defensive face offs. Another year and some help in the dot from a actual 3rd line centre would probably improve his game.

  20. Tyler says:

    If that package deal is on the table and the Oilers can make it – NO big salary is safe (Penner, Horcoff, Visnovsky, Souray, Gilbert, Staios, Pisani or Moreau).I’ve been a Sedin guy for a while, so I’d support acquiring them but I’m not sure that you can make the necessary moves.

    Horcoff – NTC
    Souray – NMC
    Visnovsky – NTC (? There have been reports of the Oilers having told him that they’d honour this although they don’t have to; whether they’re bound by that or whether they’d want to go back on their (apparent) word, I don’t know.

    That leaves Gilbert ($4MM), Staios ($2.7MM), Pisani ($2.5MM), Moreau ($2.0MM) and Penner ($4.25). Nilsson ($2MM) can probably be added to that list. You might need to move them all, or all but one, to have the necessary salary room.

    Candidly, if I’m a top NHL player who isn’t absolutely driven by $$, Edmonton’s probably not at the top of my list at the moment. I have a hard time imagining the circumstances in which this happens.

    They’d look nice in LA though.

  21. stubby says:

    Wallach won 3 gold gloves and 2 silver sluggers. When I think of the great Expos Wallach always slips my mind for some reason.

  22. rickibear says:

    //As for the posts quoting “hits”, all I can say is that the NHL appears to track hits by ouija board and it’s not really a credible stat imo.//

    Rob Kerr from Flames PPV on the quality of Hit stat. “I dropped a pencil in the press box in New York, bent over to pick it up and got credited with a hit.”

  23. Daryl says:

    How does POS rate 3rd level quality of teamates? He bounced lines a bit in LA, but the top of the bounce was Kopitar, and bottom of the bounce was 3rd line.

  24. PunjabiOil says:

    I’ve become friends with Shawn Horcoff’s brother in the last while. I’m not going to say how, out of respect of privacy. If you ever see him though, you’ll know who it is – he looks just like Horcoff.

    Apparently Shawn Horcoff spends his summers in Detroit.

  25. PunjabiOil says:

    And despite being a small player, there is absolutely no reason to pass up on Jordan Schoerder at 10th overall if he's available.

    He lead the University of Minnesota in PPG as an 18 year old.

    http://hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/csl.php?tid=579

    Those numbers murder the rates Cogliano and Oshie have put up. Not quite Zach Parise level, but no question – this guy is a talented hockey player.

    If the Oilers draft Zach Kassian…..

    And apparently, Prendergast read's Lowetide's blog. Coincidental timing?

    http://oilers.nhl.com/team/app/?service=page&page=NewsPage&articleid=422645

  26. DBO says:

    How was O’Sullivan at faceoffs last year before coming to the Oil? he played centre at the WC on the top line for the American’s, and i would like to see him between hemsky and a new 1LW. Move Horc to 3C/tough minutes line, and let hemsky get the shooter he needs in O’Sullivan. Focus our attention on a top LW and a big grinding scoring winger for the 2RW opposite Gagner and Penner. If you move a Cogliano and a Gilbert (both the most valuable in terms of age, potential and salary). I wondered in another thread if we’d be willing to do this move (rumour has it tat Washington may be willing to move Semin in order to upgrade at D)

    Semin, Morrison and theodore
    for
    Vishnovski, Nilsson and Cogliano

    We take on Theodore to get Semin, the caps get a top Dman with experience, and two affordable 2nd/3rd line players wih some skill in Nilsson and Cogliano and they save a bunch of money (almost $3 mill).

    the Oil then sign a 2nd line RW that bangs (offer sheet to Clowe or Armstrong? or someone like knuble).

    Semin-O’Sullivan-Hemsky
    Penner-Gagner-Armstrong
    Moreau-Horcoff-Pisani
    Jacques-Brodziak-Stortini

  27. Asiaoil says:

    I’ll put the lines together one at a time – but starting with the top 6:

    Hartnell Horcoff Hemsky – we have the trading chips to get a guy like Hartnell who would make this line way tougher to play against and is tough minute ready

    Penner Gagner Pisani – yes I want Pisani on the 2nd line. He’s paid like a 2nd line guy so why not use him there? Pisani is also a shooter when given the rope to do so (MacT rarely allowed it) and along with Penner gives Gagner two bigger bodies who can do something with his passes.

    xxx Brodziak xxx – we need two wingers for 3rd line since I want Moreau traded and Pisani on the second line. These guys need to be cheaper, effective and rugged – and we have lots of trading chips to acquire these pieces

    JFJ MAP Stortini – crash bang boom and play MAP at his natural position for heaven’s sake

    If you rebuild the 3rd line that’s 3 lines you can throw out at pretty much anyone and way more toughness up and down the lineup. We also have a ton of trading chips for Hartnell, the 3rd line wingers, a goalie or draft picks:

    Moreau
    Staios
    OSullivan
    Cogliano
    Nillson

  28. Gerta Rauss says:

    Hartnell would look great in that line up…

    I wonder which chip Philly would want for him…I bet it rhymes with Mogliano…

  29. Shawn says:

    Tim Wallach is my all time favourite ball player. What a sweet swing.

  30. Bruce says:

    O’Sullivan is a real shooter, something this roster needs badly .

    What this roster needs is a scorer. Shots only help when they go in the net.

    POS: 259 SoG, 16 G, 6.2%
    Career: 571 SoG, 43 G, 7.5%

    AC: 116 SoG, 18 G, 15.5%
    Career: 214 SoG, 36 G, 16.8%

    O’Sullivan’s numbers suffered greatly after coming over to Edmonton and we need to factor that in too.

    Yeah, his Sh% dropped from 7.0% to 3.4%. From bad to much worse.

    Sorry, I’m from Missouri on O’Sullivan. $2.9 MM is a big cap hit for a 16-goal scorer.

  31. PunjabiOil says:

    Bruce is right in the sense we need O’Sullivan to deliver a bit more. 2.9M is hardly insignificant in terms of cap hit.

    That said, he just turned 24 in February. The kid is still young, and he did post 53 points (22 goals) 1 year ago. He will get better, and he does play a grittier game than Robert Nilsson (who may be on the trading block this summer).

    I, for one, am exicted to see what impact a new coach will have on the team offense.

  32. slipper says:

    I take the shooter.

    15-20 goals on 100-120 seems effecient, I guess. But where the hell are you the rest of the time?

    I’ll take the guy who had the puck on his stick in the right end of the rink more than twice as much as the guy who has a couple season of high shooting rates.

    People can fantasize about these players “who pick their spots”, but seriously, then pick your spots more…

    Shots on net and shots toward the net are created opportunities, even if the shooter has his eyes shut like a vice and is envisioning a topless
    Serena Williams in avolley contest. It’s a plinko board out there.

    Oh, and this so and so makes a team hard to play against thing is pure bullshit. Going by the grease numbers you’d think that Datysuk and Zetterberg were easy to play against, except for the fact that they dominate you.

  33. Bank Shot says:

    O’Sullivan’s three most common linemates last season were Kopitar, Frolov, and Brown.

    He plaed with top level linemates, and his corsi is skewed by playing with LA as well.

    Behindthenet stats don’t transfer real well across teams.

    O’Sullivan is alright, but I think Cogliano will have a much better career.

    O’Sullivan may prove to be a Lombardi pump and dump.

  34. kris says:

    Slipper:

    Cogliano is a little like Briere, speed creates high quality chances. Both guys have a high career SH%. Cogliano’s young and got anchored with Moreau for too long. Put him on the wing with good linemates and he may increase his shot total while keeping a high SH%.

    Asiaoil:

    Nice comment. We do need to totally build a new 3rd line. I might dump Brodziak, too.

    Problem is your trades require us to move Cogliano and O’Sullivan: two up and coming guys. You do something like that and its hard to say your rebuilding.

    Moreover, your lineup is good, playoffs good, but it’s still pretty average, no?

  35. kris says:

    One way of looking at our problems at forward is just to note the obvious: Gagner, and Cogliano are too young to be contributing parts of a very good core of forwards. Suppose, for example, that Gagner were two years older and ready for PVP:

    Signed Star Player or Penner-Gagner-Hemsky

    Nilson-Pouliot-Cogliano

    O’Sullivan-Horcoff-Pisani

    JFJ-Brodziak-Stortini

    Best 3rd line in the league, sees tons of minutes. Good first line, even with Penner or a Jagr type. Soft second line, but great puck movement. Young, tough, bang and crash 4th line.

    I guess what I’m trying to say is that I’m not entirely comfortable moving any of our young players, or even giving up their roster spots, just to bring in grit or a decent, older third line guy. (That would be throwing the baby out with the bath water.)

    Of course, that leaves us in the same position this year that we were in last year. But it may be unavoidable if we want to build this team into something more than a seven seed, first round and out, team.

  36. knighttown says:

    I like Chicago’s forwards as much as any in the league based on the fact that Queenie gives them a role.

    A) Toews/Sharp- score 25+ G, lead, kill penalties and be responsible in your own end.

    B) Kane/Havlat- put up a PPG even if you have to cheat defensively to do it.

    C) Ladd/Byfuglien- wear down the D, wreak havoc in front and have the hands to score .25G/G.

    D) Bolland/Versteeg- one of you be a mini-Toews and the other be a mini-Kane.

    E) Pahlsson- win faceoffs, kill penalties, handle some toughs and maybe by your 10th year people will give you credit for your career of tough sledding.

    F) Brouwer/Eager/Burish- the most underrated part of this team. Ignore the puck, bring the pain every shift and make sure the D are hearing footsteps all night.

    Where are the Oilers in comparison?

    Group A- Horcoff ?, ?

    Group B- Hemsky, ?

    Group C- Penner, ?

    Group D1 (mini Toews)- ?
    Group D2 (mini Kane)- Gagner, Cogliano, O’Sullivan, Nilsson ?

    Group E- Pisani

    Group F- Stortini

    To compete for a pennant we need to add/develop 1 Sharp, 1 Havlat, 1 Ladd + have Penner hit, 1 Bolland and 2 Brouwers. Our moveable assets are a bunch of mini-Kanes.

  37. Traktor says:

    Hartnell is the only player in the league who had 30 goals and 140 PIM’s last year – why exactly are they trading him again?

    And if they did trade him why would they want back O’Sullivan or Cogliano when they already have one of the top sets of forwards in the league?

    They already have young guys like Giroux and JVR that can supplement the Richards, Carter and Gagne.

    They have zero goalies signed for next year. I’m pretty sure if they moved one of their forwards it would be for a goalie.

    If they needed to cut some space Lupul definitely has some value.

    Briere has 42 goals and 97 points in 108 games as a Flyer so I wouldn’t be all the surprised if they found a club to take on his contract.

    The Flyers have around 10-12 million coming of the books this year as well as Hatcher, Knuble, Alberts, Biron and Niittymaki are all UFA’s.

  38. Quinn says:

    I guess what I’m trying to say is that I’m not entirely comfortable moving any of our young players, or even giving up their roster spots, just to bring in grit or a decent, older third line guy. (That would be throwing the baby out with the bath water.).

    Best comment I have seen on this thread yet. I don’t like the idea of sacrificing future potential in Cogliano, Gagner or Hemsky (all ideas that have been bounced around) for a present fix.

    Judicious UFA signings (ie Pahlsson, Clemmenson, etc), slow building of a team with wise cap management is the way to go. And if it means missing the post-season one more season, so be it. The good teams in this league have done this and we all look longingly at their systems, but don’t want to employ the patience to get there.

  39. Bruce says:

    Hartnell is the only player in the league who had 30 goals and 140 PIM’s last year.

    David Backes: 31 G, 162 PiM
    Scott Hartnell: 30 G, 143 PiM
    Alex Burrows: 28 G, 150 PiM
    Missed one, but I agree with your point, Traktor: these guys are golden. Hard to imagine any of them is available.

    Of the 23 other players with 140+ PiM, only 1 has more than 22 points (David Clarkson 17-15-32)

    And of the 60 players with 100+ PiM, Hartnell ranked third in goals, third in points, and fifth in plus. Golden.

  40. slipper says:

    Shot data is a far more reliable indicator of ability and future performance than shooting percentage, and it translates across teams just fine. For all this talk of who O’Sullivan played with in L.A. he maintained 240+ shot pace in his stretch with the Oilers. Luck be damned.

  41. Bruce says:

    Slipper: Luck is part of it, but part of it is mentality. Shoot-from-anywhere will get you a lot of shots but not necessarily a lot of goals, esp. if your shot is a muffin more often than not.

  42. Lowetide says:

    I’m a little surprised at how many people have made their decision (or at least close-to making the decision) on O’Sullivan.

    I think he’s a pretty clever player and he’s certainly a shooter.

  43. Bruce says:

    LT: I am nowhere near a “decision”, I’m looking forward to seeing what the kid can bring next season. It just better be a lot more than what we saw in a limited preview THIS season.

  44. Asiaoil says:

    Moreau, Staios and Cogliano for Hartnell and Rathje.

    You would think that PHI at least thinks about this since it helps their cap situation short term ($7.7 million out versus 6 million coming in – plus 3 guys that can help versus one in Hartnell)

    Moreau is a lesser version of Hartnell and the dummy had a good season in a narrow view. Staios is a cheaper upgrade on Rathje but has one extra contract year plus Philly could actually use a dman like him. The Oilers send Rathje to the minors unless injuries open up space so he’s free in a cap sense. Cogliano for Hartnell is the main show.

    I do this deal to open up cap space (getting rid of Staios and Moreau plus send Rathje to the minors) and make the top 6 bigger. Basically I think it helps both teams.

  45. Dennis says:

    I am going to chalk up ’09 for 19 as a case of a guy not signing his deal earlier enough and never really catching up. I can’t recall what his SC numbers were like as an Oiler but I do remember him being in position a helluva lot more as the games wound down.

    I would be fine with a 19-89-13 secondary scoring line just as long as we find two like minded guys to play with 34 and provided that 34 still has it in ’10.

    The most obvious moves, IMO, are getting rid of 12 and 18.

  46. Daron says:

    LT, do you happen to remember the brawl between the Expos and Astros, maybe around 88 or 89 or so, when Larry Anderson hit Spike Owen and the fists flew in the Dome? I was at that game. Sorry to be off-topic, but all the Wallach talk in your open got me to reminiscing. Loved Spike Owen, always wished he would come to Houston in his later years (UT guy).

    Keep up the great work. You make my mornings a wee bit easier.

  47. Lowetide says:

    Daron: Thanks. The best game I’ve ever seen involved the Astros and the Mets. Extra innings, playoff game, I don’t remember the year (1986?) but it was a thriller.

    Dennis: Reasoner was dealt at the deadline.

  48. Dennis says:

    I always liked Owen as well – I remember he could hit Doc Gooden when most guys couldn’t – and his offense was better than most remember.

    But, he made an error down the stretch in Pit in ’92 that made me turn on him.

  49. Bruce says:

    LT: 1986 it was. Mets 7 Astros 6 in 16 innings. A classic. Mets had the horseshoes that whole post season.

    Spike Owen played for Team USA in the 1981 Intercontinental Cup at old Renfrew Park. IIRC he scored the winning run in the 10th inning in the final against Cuba. I thought he was a jerk then and never found a reason to change my mind.

  50. Lowetide says:

    I watched the Florida-Colorado expansion draft (ESPN) and they had a board behind the Florida GM that had Spike Owen in pen at SS.

    Except he was still in Oakland. I always thought it was the coolest way for a fan to find out about a trade.

  51. Master Lok says:

    I’m going against the grain and say that it’s not size that counts, it’s compete. Gagner has feistiness and Hemsky has courage, and imo that’s what counts, not their height and size.

    I try to keep both Cogs and POS and dump Nilsson. Haven’t we drafted enough coke machines to know that size doesn’t equate to wins?

    Jagr – O’Sullivan – Hemsky
    Penner – Gagner – Kotalik
    Cogliano – Horcoff – Pisani
    Jacques – Brodziak – Stortini
    PB – Pouliot

    In – Jagr
    Out – Nilsson, Moreau

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