Falcons 08-09 G (Reasonable Expectations Reviewed)

Devan Dubnyk got exceptional press in 08-09, but one wonders if he moved his career forward during the year. Many eyewitness reports had him playing outstanding hockey for much of the winter, but his actual numbers are less than stellar. They don’t scream “future NHL starter” but Steve Carlton had a k/w rate of 2/1 and a 3.59 ERA in triple A as a young man so we can dream.

Here’s the bookend post to this one, talking about reasonable expectations for the Oilers minor leaguers last fall.

  • Jeff Drouin Deslauriers: Fall ’08 Reasonable expectations: Solid numbers in 10-15 NHL games and perhaps a quality conditioning stint in the minors. It’s sink or swim time for this player, with the organization seemingly convinced of his ability and the numbers suggesting otherwise. ACTUAL: Pretty close. He had solid if unspectacular NHL numbers (10gp, 3.34 .901) and played 5 good AHL games. The odds are against him historically, but he’ll likely get a heavier workload in 09-10.
  • Devan Dubnyk: Fall ’08 Reasonable Expectations: More than 40 games in the AHL and a more consistent record. This is a big year for the big man. ACTUAL: He played in 62 AHL games but his record included 41 losses. His SP (.906) isn’t close to the hoped for .915 and I’m inclined to agree with Asia that we’re looking at a probable “career backup” ceiling for him. However, we can still cheer for the big man.
  • Bryan Pitton: Fall ’08 Reasonable Expectations: Plenty of work with good results in the ECHL and perhaps a few starts in the AHL. ACTUAL: He played 34 games in the ECHL and was not impressive (.886) at all, in fact losing the starting job to undrafted Andrew Perugini. As listless as his regular season stats were, his 3 playoff games were worse. One wonders if he’ll be back.
  • Glenn Fisher: Fall ’08 Reasonable Expectations: Survival in pro hockey. He may spend the entire season as backup to Dubnyk in Springfield or he might be back in the ECHL helping out Pitton. Either way, he needs to show something this season. ACTUAL: Fisher had a horrible start and ended up in Las Vegas (ECHL) for much of the season. Once there he caught fire, boasting a .930SP in 21 regular season games and then posting a .934SP in the post-season. We need to be aware of 2 things: this is the ECHL and the parent team loaned him out, and Fisher is 26-years old with 4 total games in the AHL so far in his career.
  • Andrew Perugini: I didn’t list him in the fall look but he’s certainly worth talking about now. His SP in the ECHL (.908) was 22 points better than Pitton’s and I think he’d reasonably be rated as the third best goalie in the system at this time (behind JDD and DD).

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