Desjardins’ NHLE for 2009 Draft

Scott Glennie is among the top rated forwards eligible for the 2009 entry draft based on Desjardins’ NHL equivalencies.

John Tavares’ NHLE is on par with Steve Stamkos’ number one year ago, and Ryan Ellis is off the charts offensively.

Below are the players who are ranked among the top prospect for this year’s draft and their NHLE’s. If they’re not on the list, the prospect plays in a league that Desjardins’ NHLE can’t accurately predict at this time.

Forwards
  1. John Tavares 25-21-46
  2. Evander Kane 19-20-39
  3. Jordan Schroeder 10-25-35
  4. Matt Duchene 13-21-34
  5. Nazem Kadri 11-23-34
  6. Scott Glennie 13-18-31
  7. Brayden Schenn 11-20-31
  8. Jordan Caron 15-12-27
  9. Zack Kassian 10-15-25
  10. Peter Holland 10-14-24
  11. Ryan O’Reilly 6-18-24
  12. Louis Leblanc 10-12-22
  13. Magnus Pääjärvi-Svensson 9-13-22
  14. Landon Ferraro 13-7-20
  15. Jacob Josefson 6-14-10
  16. Carter Ashton 11-7-18
  17. Phillip Paradis 7-10-17
  18. Marcus Johansson 5-6-11

Jordan Schroeder would be the forward who jumps out in a positive way, and Pääjärvi-Svensson (and all of the Swedes) suffers under this microscope. One reason would be ice time, as he clearly has impressive talent (6-6-12 in 6 WJC’s games) when playing against kids his own age. Jani Rita suffered from this very problem (ice-time) and a team selecting any of these Swedish kids might want to get him over to North America. We can’t overrate the problem, as Hedman (below) played in the same league and performed well offensively. Kadri’s season also deserves mention.

Defense
  1. Ryan Ellis 9-29-38
  2. Victor Hedmon 10-21-31
  3. Dmitri Kulikov 5-20-25
  4. Calvin De Haan 3-20-23
  5. Stefan Elliott 6-13-19
  6. John Moore 5-10-15
  7. Charles-Olivier Roussel 4-11-15
  8. David Rundblad 0-14-14
  9. Jared Cowen 4-7-11
  10. Simon Despres 1-10-11
  11. Tim Erixon 2-6-8
  12. Oliver Ekman Larsson 1-4-5

Hedman doesn’t rank at the top of this list, but based on the offense he supplied in a strong pro league I’d suggest he might be the best player in the draft. Ryan Ellis is off the charts in terms of boxcars and his NHLE is the third best number overall. Kulikov and De Haan are also of interest.

written by

The author didn‘t add any Information to his profile yet.
Related Posts

102 Responses to "Desjardins’ NHLE for 2009 Draft"

  1. speeds says:

    Do the equivalency ratios chance from year to year, LT?

    If scoring is higher or lower in a league this year vs. the league's average over the past 4 seasons, is that factored into the equivalencies?

  2. raventalon40 says:

    I would strongly endorse a Kulikov selection. Dean Millard cited problems with ranking Ryan Ellis this high. Do you feel the Desjardins' NHLE proves otherwise? That in fact… at 10th overall, Ellis might be the best player available?

  3. Lowetide says:

    speeds: No. I can't speak for Gabriel (Hawerchuk), but he averages the number for each league by averaging over several seasons, so I'm not certain how you'd alter year to year.

  4. Lowetide says:

    raventalon40: I'd be fine with Ellis at 10. Here's my "early top 10"
    http://lowetide.blogspot.com/2009/05/early-top-10.html

    and here's speeds ranking:

    http://hockeysymposium.blogspot.com/

  5. PDO says:

    De Haan would be a steal at 40th.

    In fact, if we took Glennie at 10 (and judging from Brownlee's article, if Glennie is there, unless someone like MSP or Cowen slides… it's gonna be him) and De Haan at 40 I'd be pretty content.

    Not a big fan of using 1st rounders on D. Just take too long to develop and because they're a first rounder they get in the Chel and end up helping someone else win unless they're an absolutely exceptional talent (say.. Doughty, Hedman).

    Goalies are straight witch craft.

    I'm all for BPA, but unless the guy is a sure fire, 100% stud… BPA in the first round is pretty much always a forward ;).

  6. PDO says:

    Any thoughts on the inductions tomorrow LT?

    It'll almost assuredly be Yzerman, Hull, Robitaille and Leetch….

    And Dino, Bure and Oates will have to continue waiting.

    While Dick Duff sits in there.

    … you may or may not be able to sense a strong air of sarcasm in this ;)

  7. Lowetide says:

    I'd take Yzerman, Hull and Howe. Leetch gets in next season with Luc and Doug Gilmour.

    Plus Lindros in there somewhere.

  8. Smytty777 says:

    Let's assume the Oilers pick 10th. The big 3 are obviously gone, the next best bets to go are MPS, Kane, Cowen, Schenn.

    That leaves Kulikov, Kadri, Glennie, Ellis and Schroeder to go 8-12.

    Is there a clear cut BPA of those 5? And should the Oilers risk moving down to 12 and picking up another pick with a guarantee that one of those guys is available.

    Personally I am thrilled with one of those 5 and an additional second rounder.

  9. speeds says:

    With Schroeder, there's a decent chance I have him too high, even though I quite like him. There's a ton of other sources that have him in the 8-15 range (MacKenzie placing him at 15 in his rankings). That could potentially be a result of a size bias through most of the sources, but MacKenzie has Ellis at 12 while I have Ellis at 11 so I'm not sure that could be said for MacKenzie.

    My list doesn't look terribly dissimilar to MacKenzie's. In the top 30 I have Schroeder, Rundblad, Holland, Budish, Rajala and Werek notably higher than MacKenzie, and he has Kassian, Ashton, Kadri, Despres, Caron, O'Reilly and Leddy notably higher than I do.

  10. speeds says:

    smytty777:

    In that scenario I would take Schroeder in about 3 seconds, but I'm not sure most would agree, and any word filtering out doesn't seem to suggest the Oilers are nearly as high on Schroeder as I am.

    I do kind of like the idea of trading down at 10 though, to around 13 or 14, if you can pick up a second and if you have a bunch of guys there rated roughly equal, and aren't gonna take Schroeder at 10 anyways.

  11. PunjabiOil says:

    In other news, Heatley will be traded by July 1, or he won't be traded at all.

    http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/2009/06/22/murray_heatley/

    "I'm doing a lot of the asking. Nobody has really agreed at the moment. But one team is getting close to where I want to be," Murray told reporters. "I guess I can take an offer that's been made, but it's not one that I want right now."

    "I've made it very clear that if we pay any more money, this (trade) probably isn't going to happen," stated Murray, who added that he's spoken with one of Heatley's agents in the past few days.

  12. Lowetide says:

    I'll be thrilled if they take Glennie. Like him as a player (in terms of scouting report) and the math likes him too.

    PJ Oil: Murray is posturing I expect. Trying to bang the drum. He got terrible news with Hossa joining Tanguay and Gaborik on the UFA list.

  13. PunjabiOil says:

    I'd be fine with Glennie, but prefer Schoerder.

    Kulikov and Ellis are also exceptional talent, but I'm just not a fan of drafting defencemen.

  14. speeds says:

    I agree LT, he's trying to add/manufacture pressure, hoping that nets him a bigger return and also hoping he gets it done prior to July 1st so he know what kind of money he has to spend in the UFA market.

    He could also be playing it stright up, but I don't think OTT would hold onto him on, say, July 15th, if a really good trade opportunity were presented.

  15. PunjabiOil says:


    PJ Oil: Murray is posturing I expect. Trying to bang the drum. He got terrible news with Hossa joining Tanguay and Gaborik on the UFA list.

    Not to mention Havlat and the Sedin sisters.

  16. Smytty777 says:

    And Mike Camalleri, not in the same league as a Hossa or Gaborik, but a solid goal scorer. There is some talent available right now.

  17. Smarmy Boss says:

    Gilbert and Sully is a solid return for Heatley. I certainly wouldn't offer any more then that and it wouldn't surprise me to see them net him for less then that package.

  18. Traktor says:

    If we pass on Schroeder for Glennie it will be Pouliot/Parise all over again.

  19. PDO says:

    Trak:

    You follow the WHL, no?

    All I have for any of these players is reports and numbers…

    But I thought that:

    A) Your biggest problem with Pouliot is how "vanilla" he is and;
    B) Glennie likes the physical side of the game.

    …?

  20. Lowetide says:

    Parise was a better offensive prospect than Schroeder. Here's Parise/Pouliot via Desjardins NHLE for their draft seasons:

    Parise 18-26-42
    Pouliot 11-15-26

  21. PDO says:

    LT:

    I always think it's 4, not 3.

    … I have a feeling Oates is never going to get in, and that's a real shame. Howe should really be in there too….

  22. Traktor says:

    PDO: I don't think Glennie likes the physical side of the game at all. He's pretty soft for his size.

    Once he has to battle against men every night I think he'll flame out.

    But I also thought Matty Roy was going to develop into a Kevin Bieksa type too so who knows.

  23. speeds says:

    My question from earlier in the thread may apply here. Were the equivalencies used to calculate Parise the same as for Schroeder, or have they changed since that time LT?

    http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/leagues/seasons/ncaa19502003.html

    http://www.uscho.com/standings/?type=d1?type=d1&conf=16&gender=m

    Parise played in a conference environment (both played in the WCHA) that averaged ~23 more GF per team, ~20% higher scoring (2002/3 WCHA = 139 GF, 2008/9 WCHA = 116 GF).

    Schroeder was 2nd in WCHA scoring, while Parise was 7th.

  24. kris says:

    No love for Oliver E Larson here?

  25. bookie says:

    Murray is posturing I expect. Trying to bang the drum. He got terrible news with Hossa joining Tanguay and Gaborik on the UFA list.

    When you think about it, you can trade away players and pay $7.5 to get Heatley or you can simply pay $8.0 or so and get Hossa…hmmm. I say any trade for Heatley has to include a reverse salary dump.

    Also of interest, this would be a benefit tradewise to any team who has an owner with deep pockets who is willing to bury some salary in the AHL….

  26. Lowetide says:

    speeds: I can't speak to the issue except to say that Gabriel takes each player who graduates from a specific league and tracks that player. There are so few year-to-year that making changes for one year might (I think) be difficult.

    Does that make sense? I don't really know what else to say about it.

  27. Traktor says:

    kris:

    OEL doesn't project to be around by the time we're up to bat.

  28. Coach pb9617 says:

    I'd love Glennie or Schroeder and I really want to see Erixon in Edmonton.

    Also, remember: Just say no to Kassian and Heatley.

  29. speeds says:

    fair enough, I guess I'm just not as convinced that Parise was clearly a better offensive prospect, at the same age, than is Schroeder.

    I mean, Parise may have been a better 18 year old offensive prospect, but there is enough of a difference in conference scoring to at least make me wonder a bit.

  30. Lowetide says:

    I'd have to check, but I believe Parise was older for a draft prospect too.

  31. uni says:

    I doubt Kulikov will be available at 10th, and if he is, well I'll be very happy to grab him and call it a good pick.

    From all the scouting reports he seems to be tracking quite nicely, isn't afraid of the rough stuff, and could step into the NHL within a year or two at most and help almost right away.

    I don't subscribe to the ignoring defencemen as BPA or being biased against them. I don't see the problem with grabbing a good D-prospect who is viewed as BPA, then giving him 2-3 seasons to come along then emerge as an good defenceman, and hopefully an elite one later on.

    That's just my fan opinion though =).

  32. kris says:

    Traktor:

    I agree, he's unlikely to slip to 10.

    My point is that Speeds, LT's early list, and Smytty777's list don't put him in the top 10.

    I was thinking that was weird. I think you would agree.

    (In fairness, I bet LT's next list will have OEL higher.)

  33. Traktor says:

    American scoring leaders at the WJC

    Schroeder 11
    van Riemsdyk 10
    Wilson 9

    He just puts up numbers.

  34. speeds says:

    Kris:

    I think I have OEL a bit too low. He has enormous stats, but didn't play in the top league. I also don't think there's much difference between the players 9-12 on my list, OEL could be 9th pretty easily on my list.

    LT:

    Parise was only 2 months older, but he was a "19 year old" while Schroeder is an "18 year old". Parise was part of the first draft that allowed 18 year old NCAA players to be drafted, but he was 19 at the time – the rule change came along too late for him to be eligible for the 2002 draft.

  35. Dennis says:

    LT: this is off topic but I am struggling finding things to do in the evening now that just about all TV is finished and the NHL and NBA have gone dark so I've gotten back into listening to a lot of music.

    First and foremost is Warren Zevon and I want to thank you for the recommendation.

  36. Lowetide says:

    Dennis: You're welcome. Wonderful writer. Carmelita might be the perfect 3am song.

  37. Dennis says:

    LT: if that is the perfect 3am song, then My Shit's Fucked up is the perfect 2pm song After you had listened to the 3am song;)

    And Don't Let Us Get Sick is practically hymnal.

  38. Lowetide says:

    Well, when you get to be my age you're LIVING My Shit's Fucked Up 24-7. :-)

  39. Coach pb9617 says:

    Dennis, if you aren't already aware, might I recommend The Hold Steady?

  40. Dennis says:

    Coach: the geekiest looking guys are the smartest and/or always write the best music but The Hold Steady are the geekiest looking crowd that can really rock, IMO.

    I heard "Stay Positive" many times before I saw the video and when I saw it I was like, "really."?

  41. Coach pb9617 says:

    I heard "Stay Positive" many times before I saw the video and when I saw it I was like, "really."?

    It was the piano player, huh?

    And when it comes to writing, I don't think that there is anyone better right now.

  42. HBomb says:

    Is Warren Zevon the guy who did "Lawyers, Guns and Money"?

    I love that tune.

    Traktor: I'll admit there's several names of interest to me as an Oiler fan at 10 (Kadri, Glennie, Kulikov, Kassian, etc.), but to me, passing on Schroder based on size is a risky, risky proposition. It's hard to ignore that level of talent.

    And considering that he shouldn't (in theory) be on the team for three years, the size thing is not an excuse.

    I'd like to see what the Oilers could do to scoop an extra pick between 15-21 and pick Kassian after getting one of Kulikov, Schroder, Glennie or Kadri at 10 myself. Reload the gun, so to speak.

  43. Deano says:

    If I can play along:

    Robert Randolph and the Family Band.

    on Letterman

    A cover for us old farts

  44. HBomb says:

    "Send lawyers, guns and money…the shit has hit the fan."

    Hopefully Jimmy Balsillie is listening to this tune.

  45. speeds says:

    Why would Schroeder, or whoever the Oilers take at 10, not be ready for the team for 3 years (12/13 season)?

    Seems to me that if the Oilers draft a F at 10 OV and he's not starting the 11/12 season on the roster, he's behind schedule. A Dd might take a bit longer, but even then he could well be NHL ready at 20.

  46. HBomb says:

    speeds: By that logic, should we be expecting Eberle to push for a roster spot on a soft-minute line this fall?

    An opinion I trust believes that we won't get as good an F at 10th overall as we got at 22nd overall last year. I'll play wait and see on that one….

  47. Lowetide says:

    HBomb: I think the player at 10 will be better than Eberle unless the Oilers pull a Niinimaki.

  48. HBomb says:

    LT: I'd agree based on what I know, but let's just say that this individual knows a HELL of a lot more about this stuff than you or I. He's very, very bullish on Eberle. So it's something I'm going to pay attention to.

    The long-and-short of his argument is this – you CANNOT teach what Eberle can do in terms of finish.

  49. speeds says:

    Hbomb:

    Eberle is only one year post draft. By your 3 year timetable, more reasonable IMO for a guy taken 22 OV vs 10 OV, he's got 1 more WHL season and an AHL year before he's 3 years post draft.

  50. speeds says:

    Also, whoever the Oilers draft at #10 should vault to #1 in the system, IMO, unless they take a guy way down the list or, IMO, Kassian.

  51. HBomb says:

    speeds, two things:

    1) I hope Eberle pushes for a spot and forces the Oilers to make the tough decision to send him down. It's cases like him where I hate the no junior-aged players in the AHL rule – he'd probably benefit a ton from playing minor-pro this winter.

    2) Where do you have Kassian slotted? I'd say he's a reach at 10, but if the Oilers could somehow pick up, say, Florida's 15th overall and take him as a 2nd first round selection, I'd be all for it. He's a roll of the dice that could end up anywhere from Jessiman to Lucic.

  52. speeds says:

    I have Kassian at 23.

  53. Hemsky is a gangsta says:

    Anyone catch Stauffer on 630 CHED tonight?

  54. Lowetide says:

    No. What did he say?

  55. boopronger says:

    I dont think Eberle is even a for sure bet for the NHL. With the amount of talent in the top ten in this draft, unless the Oilers go off the board, I think whoever the pick is almost automatically vaults to number 1 prospect.

    IMO I think Oiler fans are overrating Eberle.

  56. boopronger says:

    After posting I realized how i just re-iterated what speeds said. Sorry speeds for the plagiarism but I agree.

  57. Hawerchuk says:

    Speeds (1st comment):

    The equivalencies as LT uses them are multi-year averages. But offensive levels tend to track one another, so the percentages are roughly constant over a long period of time.

    Vic and I talked about the error bars on the equivalencies in a post here – if you don't control for age or ice time, there are huge errors bars on the projection. Probably 4:1 over the middle 75%. So I don't worry about whether the mean projection is 0.4 or 0.5 – it's very coarse.

    There's a better way to do this – Iain and some of the other guys at Puck Prospectus have been doing it, though I don't think they're explained their methodology yet.

  58. Hemsky is a gangsta says:

    I didn't hear it either, I was hoping someone else would provide a recap.

  59. raventalon40 says:

    No, Eberle is pretty good. Will he be a bonafide sniper in the NHL? We will see if he has the strength to get into the scoring areas. But he certainly has the smarts. And that's what got Gagner into the NHL.

  60. Jack D. says:

    Oilers talk AND Warren Zevon. I just had a nerdgasm. I love you guys.

    Is there somewhere that teaches a person how to use the Desjardins site?

  61. jon k says:

    LT: Parise had some things going against him in the old NHL. At 5'11" and 180 he was considered under-sized. He had only average foot speed, agility, and acceleration. He was one of the oldest players in the draft (I might be mistaken, the DOBs always trip me up).

    But looking back he had some very good things going for him too. He had elite offensive numbers for a 17 year old in college. By most reports his best quality was a strong work ethic.

    And I think that's one of the most important qualities a prospect can have as long as they possess even a modicum of natural ability. Quite frankly I think it's the reason Peckham is going to be a successful NHLer.

    Anyway, I found this link which is fun to look back upon.

    http://www.hockeysfuture.com/articles/5493/the_draft_document_featuring_zach_parise/

    If I were to guess/speculate as to the main differences between Schroeder and Parise as draft prospects they'd be the following:

    - Parise was considered weak and under-developed at the time of the draft. He's overcome that to a certain extent since, possibly creating more potential for improvement. Schroeder is fairly strong and developed at this point already, at least by combine reports.
    - Parise's character was roundly praised in scouting reports. Schroeder's scouting reports have largely been silent on his character to date. Some rumours of a poor attitude but nothing substantial or verifiable.

    Otherwise they've scored very similarly relative to their conference scoring totals and put up proportions of team offense that are very similar.

    Glennie: The scouting reports are inconsistent regarding his physical game. Some state that he played a gritty game in his 16 year old season but more of a perimeter game in his draft season. In any case he has substantially better skating and offensive creativity than Pouliot from what I've seen. He also plays in a league which is traditionally more difficult for point-getting.

    ———————————–

    Anyway, as we get down to the wire I've become happier with the Oilers sitting at 10.

    If we get to pick from OEL, Glennie, Ellis, Kulikov, Schroeder, MPS, and Kadri I think we're in a good spot. There's really only one player I would not be happy with in that bunch and I trust the Oilers (and probability) enough to assume we won't be drafting Kadri.

    I think most fans will leave this draft feeling happy.

  62. knighttown says:

    Some interesting things happening in Tampa.

    http://www.fromtherink.com/

    Koules wants to trade Vinny and keep payroll down in the 40M range while Len Barrie wants to keep him and spend aournd 50M. They've got until Jul 1 to decide as Lecavalier's NMC kicks in. A mess.

    AS James so clerly stats, the two owners can't seem to agree and now they're heading to the Principals Office to sort it our.

    If Heater AND Vinny are available this reduces the price of both of them I would think. Who would you prefer, assuming the price includes dumping some of our overpriced players, namely Penner, Staois, Moreau and (aghast!) Horcoff.

  63. The Falconer says:

    Schroeder and Ellis are the key point in any "scouts vs stats" debate because the stats clearly portend big things for both of these smallish players.

    Another potentially under rated guy is Linden Vey of Medicine Hat who has a NHLE of 26 points. I've never seen him play–maybe he's softer than butter, but I were a NHL team he would might warrant a gamble in the 2nd or 3rd given–given how often those picks fail anyway.

  64. HBomb says:

    Some people say no to Heatley, I say no to Lecavalier.

    He's the ultimate "shiny thing". An extra 2.5 million a year plus to "upgrade" from Horcoff to Lecavalier is one thing (because they'd pretty much have to trade Horcoff to make it work salary-wise), but once you consider it's going to take "young and cheap" to make a trade go and then throw in that Lecavalier is signed for 11 years……that's something I want no part of whatsoever.

    Jordan Staal to complement Horcoff and Gagner, please and thank you. Then sign Bouwmeester after moving salary off the back-end. That's my preferred route. Heatley would be somewhere between plan "B" and "D" in my books (there's other options in UFA-land, such as Hossa, Gaborik, and my personal choice for a LW upgrade, Martin Havlat).

  65. hunter1909 says:

    Lowetide: Interesting comparison between Pouliot and Parise, but you seem to forget Kevin Lowe's immortal draft day remarks re how they chose Pouliot because he was playing on such a terrible terrible hockey team in the Q, but never seemed to want to quit.

    Lowe provided Pouliot with everything he needs.

  66. Lowetide says:

    Hunter: I think it's really important to factor in injury when dealing with Pouliot as a player. He just never did develop because of the monstrous 2003 injury (laundry) list.

  67. Traktor says:

    Lowetide:

    "He just never did develop because of the monstrous 2003 injury (laundry) list."

    He had 15 goals, 45 points in 65 games and a team MVP title in his first season in the AHL.

    At that point would you've said that the injuries have held him back?

    Seems like he developed fine as a junior player and did quite well his first year pro but never really developed after that.

  68. bookie says:

    Let me be the first to wish absolute failure upon the Sutter's in Calgary!

  69. ian says:

    On Eberle, from the comments he has to go back to junior if he can't play in the NHL but would that rule also apply to him going to the SEL?
    As a sniper wouldn't that league help him develop his skills for a year?
    Some English soccer clubs appear to be purchasing smaller European clubs to develop their players for a year or two before bringing them up with the big club.
    I wonder if the Oilers might try something like this?

  70. Satisfied_to_Ignore says:

    Thanks for posting this LT!

    I have to say, I wish I had more time to look into all the math that you present here, I find it excellent, and cannot imagine why it is not used more by the scouting staff and in personnel decisions by all NHL teams.

    Is their a main source link for the math that is often used here?

  71. uni says:

    Let me be the first to wish absolute failure upon the Sutter's in Calgary!

    Bookie: I think you meant to say, "Best of luck to the Sutters in Calgary".

    On Eberle, from the comments he has to go back to junior if he can't play in the NHL but would that rule also apply to him going to the SEL?
    As a sniper wouldn't that league help him develop his skills for a year?

    ian: I was thinking exactly the same thing, however, I doubt a lot of NHL teams can afford to buy a SEL or KHL team, these are good leagues whose teams are worth more than an AHL affiliate would think (but I don't know this for sure). Also rookies tend to not get a lot of playing time in these leagues as well, so that would beg the question of whether he'd be any good as a bench warmer, 5 minutes a night guy in the SEL (unless injury etc. opens up a spot for him ala Omark) or back in Junior.

    They really should put in a clause for exceptions to the AHL age rule, like 1 player per season that meets X criteria and Y waivers.

  72. oilerdago says:

    So Garrioch in his column this morning stated that the teams Heatley has expressed interest in do not include the Oilers.

    Would Murray trade him to Edmonton just to spite him for going public with his trade request?

    Day by day things get more interesting on the trade front.

  73. Bar Qu says:

    So Garrioch in his column this morning stated that the teams Heatley has expressed interest in do not include the Oilers.

    Best news I have heard this week.

  74. hunter1909 says:

    Lowetide: Yeah, you're right about Pouliot. Sadly, we can say the same thing about Plante, O'Marra, even Schremp after his knee injury.

  75. Woodguy says:

    So Garrioch in his column this morning stated that the teams Heatley has expressed interest in do not include the Oilers.

    Garrioch's accuracy rate in predicting what will happen with potential trades is just above Eklund and just below the magic eight ball.

    His opinion isn't worth the Al Gore its printed on.

  76. Ribs says:

    Is their a main source link for the math that is often used here?

    Behind the Net should be your first stop. Great site.

    IOF features Lowetide comment regulars showcasing their mad math wizardry skills and has some useful tools to use (look under "Other Hockey Stuff" on their blog roll). Should be a good start!

  77. Satisfied_to_Ignore says:

    thanks Ribs!

  78. HBomb says:

    Lowetide, you're going to hate to hear it as much as I do, but Lou Lamoriello and his CBA manipulating ways are going into the HHOF this November.

    Along with four very deserving individuals: Yzerman, Leetch, Hull and Robataille.

    Still no Mark Howe. Which is a crime. Almost as big a crime as Bill Hunter not being there as a builder.

  79. Coach pb9617 says:

    So Garrioch in his column this morning stated that the teams Heatley has expressed interest in do not include the Oilers.

    Garrioch's people still haven't figured out fire, so don't put much stock in that unless he names the source.

    If true, then thank you hockey gods.

    If false, then *shakes fist at hockey gods*

  80. Travis Dakin says:

    Thank the gods if we dont get him? what?
    I just can't grasp you're rationale. Teams that win have elite players. The Oilers have none. Heatley is one. This team has always been rounded out by a bunch of plumbers waiting for that one elite piece. When they got one (Pronger) they went far. It's time to get another one again.

  81. PDO says:

    Travis:

    Coach is quite the fan of Penner's fat ass, and is well aware that if Heatley is coming here, that big ass that blocks out all light in front of Luongo's face will be going the other way.

    I like Penner too, but I think I'd prefer to see Heatley just go high Havarti on a one-timer than Penner bang in a rebound.

  82. PDO says:

    Brent Sutter officially in Calgary.

    Just a disgusting display of ethics.

  83. Bar Qu says:

    @Dakin

    I would love Heatley on the Oil, but not for his cap hit for 5 more years. As someone else has pointed out with him that makes 11 players at $42, with the cap set to go down next year. This means losing Cogliano or Gagner next year and initiating a couple years of salary dump to keep fitting that contract in.

    Better to find cheaper, younger available guys to fill the team. I don't know who, but perhaps a run at Staal of Pittsburgh might be wise.

  84. choppystride says:

    NHLE: these equivalencies are calculated based on the numbers posted by players who have made the NHL. But what about those who aren't good enough for the NHL? Those numbers are totally ignored. That means that the NHLE suffers from a survivorship bias. I always get a chuckle whenever I see Lowetide apply NHLE to some two-bit prospect. Because while the NHLE tells me how many points he might get if he's in the NHL, it does not at all tell me whether he's even good enough for the NHL. This point has always befuddled me because somewhere in the middle, the key to the quantum leap is missing. But I suppose it's a decent predictor for the surefire prospects – if you can be sure who those are. For anyone else, you'll need to first peek into the future with a crystal ball…

    Eberle: while most people rave about his scoring touch, I am actually more impressed with his passing and hockey sense. Watching him in the WJC, he really seems to have a knack for keeping the play alive in the o-zone with his little touch passes, almost Sedin-like. I think the kid will make the NHL pretty soon if his conditioning is up to par. He may even be a good linemate for Hemsky, with whom he can play touch and go and let Hemsky do most of the puck carrying.

  85. PDO says:

    "Phaneuf's stepdad".

    Please tell me that came from the players mouth.

  86. spOILer says:

    Sorry, bro, it didn't. I can't even claim it was mine, their Junior A relationship has been referred to so much on the net the past 2 weeks.

  87. PDO says:

    Damn… guess that was too much to ask for.

    My buddy just told me Tencer is saying that Ottawa likes Horcoff, and that if Horcoff is included, Fisher would be as well.

    …. Fisher – Gagner – Cogliano – Brodziak down the middle is down right disgusting, and if Heatley and Fisher are coming here, there's no hope at all in upgrading that.

  88. godot10 says:

    //Thank the gods if we dont get him? what?
    I just can't grasp you're rationale. Teams that win have elite players. The Oilers have none. Heatley is one.//

    I'm praying to the gods that the Oilers don't get Heatley. Alfredsson is the elite forward in Ottawa. Heatley isn't an elite forward. He, like Penner, is a complimentary player.

    Alfredsson drives the bus in Ottawa. Heatley is a passenger. Elilte players drive the bus.

  89. spOILer says:

    I don't think I would take Fisher over Horc. The only advantage I can see is he's a good RH FO guy. Okay has a little more size nad good physicality. And granted those RHers are more rare, but I would rather have Horc.

    Not to mention, we absolutely gutted the dressing room core last year. If we are to divest ourselves of either Moreau or Staios this year, I think Horc has to stay.

  90. PDO says:

    I wouldn't necessarily be opposed to a deal of say, Penner for Fisher, but anything that involves Horcoff on one side and Fisher on the other is a very, very, bad idea.

  91. Hawerchuk says:

    Choppystride – the confirmation bias is actually pretty small. Players who get sent to the minors have a 10-15% higher equivalency than players going in the other direction. Career minor-leaguers often end up putting up fewer points than you might expect (e.g. Jason Krog) but they are not very far from the mean.

    If you give a minor-league scorer 15 minutes a night in the NHL including some time on the PP, he will put up points. He might play terrible defense or not score quite enough, but the NHLEs are a good estimate for most players.

  92. Travis Dakin says:

    godot10: if a player scores 50 goals and 50 assists twice he is automatically an elite player. Yes Spezza and Alfredson were huge factors in that but he is also a huge factor in their production. You don't think Horcoff and Hemsky would be well complimented by a proven 100 point guy? I'm sorry but it just seems to me like it's a case of people just wanting to be able to say they were the ones that went against popular opinion and logic. Heatley is paid that much because guys like him are rare. Fact is that this team has been dying for a first line LW for a number of years. Name one LW who is better (in terms of scoring) that is available. So we lose Cogliano evnetually because of salary. That would be terrible but he will never ever be the player Heatley is anyway.

  93. Travis Dakin says:

    spOiler: The best thing fisher would bring would be Carrie Underwood.

  94. Deano says:

    Not much hope for relief from Calgary's porridge (thanks LT).

    Maybe they should change the name to the Calgary Sutters.

  95. godot10 says:

    //if a player scores 50 goals and 50 assists twice he is automatically an elite player.//

    Jimmy Carson is an elite hockey player?

  96. knighttown says:

    Regardless of whether or not you want Heatley, its not a good thing that another player is not willing to play in Edmonton. Especially a local one.

  97. jon k says:

    godot: A guy drafted second overall who scored back-to-back 100 point seasons was probably considered elite at the time. So yes.

    For whatever reason you seem to have an axe to grind with Heatley and that's fine. Your distaste for Heatley is noted.

    (As an aside, few players have scored more goals or accumulated more points than Heatley since the lockout. This includes his teammates in Ottawa.)

  98. godot10 says:

    //A guy drafted second overall who scored back-to-back 100 point seasons was probably considered elite at the time. So yes.//

    I take it you are still a young 'un, if you don't know the Jimmy Carson story. Jimmy Carson was NOT an elite hockey player.

    There are actually parallels to Heatley with Carson. Clouston calls Heatley out for being an out-of-shape lazy floater, and asks to be shipped out of town. Messier "collars" Carson for being a narcissistic lazy punk ass kid (allegedly), and he asks to be shipped out of town. The Oilers get Graves and Murphy and win a Stanley Cup.

  99. jon k says:

    Prior to his constant narcissistic trade demands I think Carson was considered elite. That's why he was the centrepiece of the trade. And drafted second overall. And he did score well early on. So yes, I do think he was considered elite at that time.

    It's a moot point anyway though since Heatley isn't much like Carson aside from the trade demands. He already has more goals and points in his young career than Carson.

    Also, do you have any links to Clouston calling Heatley out for being lazy, out of shape, and a floater? I'd be interested to read Clouston's thoughts.

    At the very least I'd be hard-pressed to believe he called Heatley a floater. He drives to the net and scores garbage goals as often as he "floats" to open spaces for one-timers.

  100. jon k says:

    Also LT, have you checked out these blogs before? Some really interesting stuff there that I think you might like. I would assume you're already a reader though. :)

  101. Travis Dakin says:

    godot10:
    scoring 100 points in 2006 has much more merit than doing it in 1989. The man is about as elite as you get.

Leave a Reply

Want to join the discussion?
Feel free to contribute!

Leave a Reply

© Copyright - Lowetide.ca