Final Top 30

Here’s my list for the draft. A few things: this isn’t a mock draft, and it is not a prediction of the top 30. Why anyone would want to try to better Bob McKenzie in that area is beyond me. I am not an expert in any way. I’m a fan.

This list is the top 30 players that have two things going for them: a wider range of skills married to a solid math mark. The one dimensional players on this list have to rip the leather right off the ball to make it on the list.

Desjardins’ NHLE numbers do impact the list heavily, but there’s also a healthy dose of common sense based on the scouting reports.

I’ve also nicked smaller players a little this season with two exceptions (Schroeder and Ellis); in both cases, there’s just too much evidence to keep them outside the top 10 overall.

  1. D Victor Hedman: Franchise. Top end talent.
  2. C John Tavares: Tremendous goal-scorer.
  3. C Evander Kane: Strong, skilled and gifted.
  4. C Matt DuChene: Elite level speed and skill.
  5. C Braydon Schenn: Skill set transfers perfectly.
  6. C Jordan Schroeder: Math loves him. Terrific skill.
  7. R Scott Glennie: Wide range of skills with good results.
  8. L Magnus Pääjärvi-Svensson: Speed kills.
  9. D Dmitrti Kulikov: Fine resume, wide range of skills.
  10. D Ryan Ellis: There’s just too much.
  11. D Oliver Ekman-Larson: Strong resume, math is meh.
  12. D Jared Cowen: Big, strong D with huge wingspan.
  13. D Calvin De Haan: Complete resume.
  14. R Zack Kassian: PF with an edge.
  15. D Stefan Elliott: Nice range of skills.
  16. C Jordan Caron: Why isn’t there more fuss?
  17. D John Moore: Smooth skater with skill from the blue.
  18. G Mikko Koskinen: .931SP is good in any league.
  19. D David Rundblad: Smart player, good shot.
  20. D Tim Erixon: Has brains, skill and pedigree.
  21. C Nazem Kadri: A somewhat risky pick (London calling).
  22. C Louis LeBlanc: Expert puck handler.
  23. D Simon Despres: An actual defenseman.
  24. G Matt Hackett: SP says he’s a player.
  25. C Chris Kreider: Late buzz, high schoolers tough to project.
  26. R Carter Ashton: Big PF prospect.
  27. R Jeremy Morin: He can score goals, could be a steal.
  28. C Ryan O’Reilly: An impressive list of skills.
  29. D Charles-Olivier Roussel: Smart player with some skill.
  30. C Jacob Josefson: Two-way center with playmaking skills.

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59 Responses to "Final Top 30"

  1. Jack D. says:

    I like Hedman at #1 too, but for a highly unscientific reason.

    Look at his photo here and tell me he's not a killer:

    http://tsn.ca/draftcentre/feature/?id=11891

  2. speeds says:

    Fun, now I get to argue with LT!

    Actually, our lists are pretty similar with a couple exceptions.

    Couple guys I have questions about:

    (1) Is Cowen nicked for his injury, or do you just like the other D better in terms of offence/two-way game, etc? I have him at 8, but only that high because it sounds like his knee is expected to completely recover – he drops down my list if there are any questions.

    (2) Holland right out of the first round. What do you not like about him as a prospect? Not enough consistency?

    (3) I don't know if I'll move Roussel into my top 30 for the draft, but he should be higher than 43 or wherever he is on my list at the moment. Same for Hutchings, what's your take on him? Think he's a guy EDM would select at 40?

    (4) Other guys I'm wondering if you can speak about a little bit: Ferraro out of the first?
    Not enough offence, IYO, for Jacobsen to be higher?
    DeHaan looks a bit underrated, I agree. Where do you have Rajala, Budish, Werek, Palmeiri, and Klingberg, roughly?

  3. Jonathan Willis says:

    Since this is a draft post LT, what do you think about:

    a) Benjamin Casavant
    b) Kellen Tochkin
    c) Ryan Howse
    d) Casey Cizikas

    And who else might you be looking at with late round picks?

  4. Lowetide says:

    Well first of all I'm just a fan reading stuff on the internet so the farther down the chain we go the less I can bullshit. :-)

    a) Benjamin Casavant: Q winger with some skill and grit. He was +32 on a team that didn't have much else, but I honestly don't know about him.

    b) Kellen Tochkin: Small, skilled. There a dozen every year in the dub.

    c) Ryan Howse: Scorer, one dimensional but it's the toughest skill to find.

    d) Casey Cizikas- Skilled player but lordy he must have some holes. -15 on a team that had another forward at +11.

  5. Traktor says:

    A possible steal in the later rounds..

    Jamie Tucker – goalie

    In his first season playing junior for the Vancouver Giants he posted,

    Games – 22
    GAA – 1.55
    Save % – .936

    It's even more impressive when he look at the starters numbers,

    Sexsmith

    Games – 52
    GAA – 2.26
    Save % – .898

    Tucker isn't ranked by central scouting.

  6. Jonathan Willis says:

    Traktor: Nice catch. A little embarrassing for CSB; they rank J-S Boucher for crying out loud.

  7. Boondock says:

    A couple things:

    Cowen: Can outmuscle every player in the WHL in the corner and none of them can beat him off the rush. Not much for numbers, but is very calm and composed with the puck and moves it quickly. He's a guy you can play against anyone and you won't have to pay him big dollars for quite awhile. I would be thrilled with him at 10.

    Howse: No thank you. I was a season ticket holder in Chilliwack the last couple years. Poor hockey sense, didn't use his teammates very well and was always out to lunch defensively. I don't think he has the hockey IQ to make any changes to his game. Doesn't seem like a very smart guy at all.

    Out of all the lists I have seen, this one would be closest to my own. Move Cowen to 8, 9 or 10 and bump Ellis to 11 and I'm in total agreement with the top 3rd of your list.

    Rumor in Vancouver on the TEAM 1040 is Gillis wants to move up for Ellis. Maybe he did read Moneyball?

  8. doritogrande says:

    LT:

    I know you (and I) are a fan of BPA regardless of position, but we don't have a goalie to speak of in junior. Do you screw the BPA and draft a goalie for the sake of drafting a goalie this year? Say, in the second round for Hackett, Roy, or this Koskinen graybeard you're pimping?

    I was begging for a goalie to be picked up last year with the pick that netted us Motin. I had my eyes on Harri Sateri. He was available with our 4th and went to SJ 4 picks later. Those guys know their goalies so I can't help but think we missed our chance.

    Our track record isn't the best with goalies, but staying away from a specific asset seems a sure method for failure. Does Detroit shy away from drafting goalies?

  9. Lowetide says:

    dorito: I'd be fine with the Oilers taking a goalie at 40. I'd say it's easily the number one area of need.

  10. Bar Qu says:

    Werek: Last player off my list. Terrific skills and he could easily be a 1st rounder. Hope the Oilers get him at 40.

    I don't follow the prospects that closely, but when I saw Willis' list, I looked closer at this guy. I was very impressed with size and weight/potential on top of his obvious offensive skills. Definitely not an early first-rounder, but I wonder if someone takes a flier on him in the late first round. And one could only hope he is around for 40.

    Although I don't think there is information on his faceoff stats ;)

  11. Smarmy Boss says:

    Where do you have Elliot. He's a good shot at being a #2-3 defenseman in the NHL.

    He's a better player then Ashton IMHO.

  12. Lowetide says:

    He's at #15.

  13. GorillazXL says:

    Great list http://hfboards.com/showthread.php?t=646651

    I'm hoping the Oilers avoid the temptation to pick up Heatly and keep the pick, load up with a UFA (Gaborik, Hossa, Havlat, Kotalik …etc.). With the Oilers pick, unless they are moving up for Kane, I really hope they land Glennie. He's exactly what this club needs.

    GXL

  14. Scott says:

    [The Sharks] know their goalies so I can't help but think we missed our chance.

    I've been doing some studies on drafting and developing goaltenders. The last goalie San Jose drafted that's played 50 NHL games was Vesa Toskala. They drafted him in 1995. They've taken 14 goalies since then and not one has panned out (so far, lots of time for some of them). They're certainly not bad at the goalie game but they haven't exactly been the gold standard over the last decade.

    I'd be fine with the Oilers taking a goalie at 40. I'd say it's easily the number one area of need.

    This seems crazy to me LT. I did a study on the possibility of drafting a goalie that gets to a .910 save percentage at various times in the draft. Taking a goalie in the top 100 looks like a pretty poor play to me. In case you're interested:

    http://gospelofhockey.blogspot.com/2009/06/dont-draft-what-you-can-get-buy-at.html

  15. speeds says:

    I don't expect a goalie at 40 this year unless they are particularly high on a guy. There's 4 or 5 that look like not bad bets, and a good chance that a couple of them are kicking around when it gets to the 3rd round where EDM has 2 picks.

  16. Lowetide says:

    Scott: I saw that, very interesting stuff. I'd still be fine with EDM taking a shot at that Finn with the pick at #40.

    Why? Because if the player is good value then there's no assurance he'll be available after #100. It's the Kaberle factor.

  17. hunter1909 says:

    I've got this feeling Tambellini ends up with Tampa's pick.

    It's the only reasonable option.

    And any one of the Oilers are likely trade bait. Including Staios.

  18. PDO says:

    Drafting goalies are witch craft.

    Stay away. Far away.

  19. Scott says:

    Why? Because if the player is good value then there's no assurance he'll be available after #100. It's the Kaberle factor.

    Is there a story behind this? I looked up (Tomas) Kaberle and he was drafted at #204.

    Aside from that, historically, it's very unlikely a goalie will be good value at #40. If the Oilers want to take a goalie because there are some needs at the position, that's fine, but why not wait until the fourth or fifth round when the chances of picking up a real player at another position decrease dramatically.

  20. Ben says:

    I think Ferraro is a better offensive player than his numbers indicate. When I've seen him play, he's created chances, but there isn't a lot of help on Red Deer. He also played fairly gritty and was mucking things up was well.

    Ashton scares me more, his offense dried up when he was moved off of Lethbridge's top line and only put up 16 points in his last 31 games and then only 3 points in 11 playoff games. And he was invisible in the games I saw Lethbridge play later in the year.

    And London has produced Nash, Perry, Kane, and Gagner in addition to Schremp. I don't know if any CHL team has put more players in the NHL this decade.

  21. PDO says:

    Ben:

    Rimouski has Richards, Lecavalier and Crosby in the last 10 years off the top of my head, along with Ryan Clowe.

    They can also throw in Michel Ouellet, Sebastien Caron, Marc Pouliot…

  22. Kev says:

    So looking forward to see what Tambo does. Can't believe I have the whole day off Friday, too

    and a little OT,ever check out

    http://quanthockey.com/

  23. Smarmy Boss says:

    Sorry LT you have him even higher then I probably would have. Guess that's why I missed him. :)

  24. Ben says:

    PDO:
    I wasn't clear, but by this decade, I meant players drafted in the 00s who've made the league and Rimouski only has Crosby and Pouliot currently. Ouellet was in the AHL this year, so I think he's a bit iffy.

    Although, now that I think about it, Medicine Hat probably has them beat, but I still can't think of anyone else with more.

  25. Bruce says:

    Drafting goalies are witch craft.

    This member in questionable standing of the batshit-crazy-goaltenders union takes issue with that statement. Surely you mean:

    Drafting goalies is witchcraft.

    For the most part I agree, PDO. However, exceptions can and do happen.

    This is a funny memory, but I swear it's all true. Back in 1981 the Entry Draft was not the big televised deal it is now. It was conducted on a weekday morning with coverage via sportscast and the newspaper. Because it was in the east (Montreal? I think) it started bright and early at 8 a.m. Mountain, the time of day when Rod Phillips used to give his daily Oiler reports on CFRN (I think it was, LT can confirm).

    Anyway, Rod gave his report around the time I dressed for work and was a daily fix. This time the report was live from the NHL meetings, the draft was going on behind him, and it proceeded rapidly (also unlike today). Rod wisely decided to hang on the air a couple minutes extra as the Oilers' #8 pick was coming up fast. (The Oilers had made a great closing rush to make the playoffs; Gretzky broke the scoring records of Orr and Esposito; the rookie class of Anderson, Coffey, Kurri, and Moog was perhaps the finest on one club in NHL history; the Oilers swept the mighty Habs in the first round; and gave the champion Islanders their sternest playoff test in Round 2 — and still had the #8 pick. Life was good.)

    Despite a fine playoff performance that spring by Andy Moog, there had been lots of buzz about the Oilers' interest in Grant Fuhr, who had absolutely dominated for the long-since-defunct Victoria Cougars of the WHL. Since he was from Spruce Grove he'd gotten a little ongoing coverage, and I was naively convinced he would be something special. When it came their turn, Fuhr was still there, but so, unexpectedly, was a second player of interest, namely James Patrick (a helluva prospect who became a helluva pro). Oilers called a time-out.

    At this point I gave up tying and retying my tie, or any hope of being on time for work. My wife can attest I got on my knees in front of the radio and begged "Pick Fuhr! Pick Fuhr!"

    Which, history will relate, the Oilers did. The young man went on to win five Stanley Cups in his home town and later to the Hockey Hall of Fame.

    James Patrick on the other hand, went on to a fine 21-year career but never once won the Stanley Cup. Who knows, maybe if the Oilers had picked him, he and Moog would have won 6 Cups together. All we know is what Did happen, and from where I sat — or should I say, kneeled — that pick turned out pretty alright.

    Sometimes things just work out as well as you dream them. It happened frequently in this town for a few years there.

  26. uni says:

    I've got this feeling Tambellini ends up with Tampa's pick.

    Hunter: if Tambellini pulls that off without taking out a second mortgage on the farm I don't think my mind could handle it. I may have a seizure and collapse with a shocked smile on my face.

    That said, as great as Fuhr turned out, I keep thinking of high draft picks used for goalies and for every Broduer there's a Kidd, or a DiPietro, who while good aren't really better than the players they were taken over.

    I concur with PDO, goalies are witchcraft.

  27. Matt N says:

    A nice article about drafting goalies.

    http://www.puckprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=125

  28. Lowetide says:

    The Kaberle atory is here:

    http://www.hockeysfuture.com/articles/6610/the_past_and_present_of_oilers_scouting/

    and the money quote is:

    “I went over to Russia for a tournament that was almost in Siberia. It was just Kent (Nilsson) and I because Barry (Fraser) didn’t go that year. I saw Kaberle there and I said to Kent ‘this guy’s a player!’ He had a skinny neck and he was a stick of a player back then but he had great wheels. We were talking and I really got Kent on the bandwagon once he started watching him too. The only other scout there was Anders Hedberg from the Leafs. I had Kaberle ranked 25th or 26th on my overall list that year and I couldn’t even get him listed on our entire list! Then Toronto takes him in the ninth round and the kid is still playing! I was killing myself! I never said anything much about it later but I did say to Kent ‘We screwed up’ and we really did. Here’s a guy we could have stolen and Anders got lucky because we couldn’t keep our mouths shut.”

    I love math, but NHL scouts are really good at their jobs. If the Oilers scouts told me to draft this big Finn goalie at 40, I'd do it.

    Also, on the subject of goalies, it seems to me that the NHL as a league got scared off years ago when the habs drafted a bunch of goalies really high and they washed out.

    But teams got tired of seeing Hasek go in the 40th round so since 2000 (it seems to me) the goalies are selected higher.

    Is that true, or am I mistaken?

  29. ian says:

    Going into this draft how do the Oilers stack up against other teams?
    Last year LA seemed to have every other pick, do we have any extras and who has lots of picks this year?

  30. Woodguy says:

    If we need goaltending depth on the farm, I like Torrie Jung from the Oil Kings.

    Carried his team in a big way this year.

    He's 4th or 5th on the Tampa depth chart and can be had for a 6th or 7th round pick. (he was a 7th I think)

    I'm not sure Tampa is even going to re-sign him, he might go back into the draft next year.

  31. doritogrande says:

    According to TSN.ca Florida's asking a third round pick for the negotiating rights with Bouwmeester.

    http://tsn.ca/nhl/story/?id=282829

    We have two third round picks.

    Is anyone else of the belief that the chance of getting a player out of the third round is less than the chance of getting Bouwmeester to sign in Edmonton?

    If a third rounder is all it's going to take to get Bouwmeester's neg rights, then that deal should have been done yesterday.

  32. hunter1909 says:

    Bruce: Thank you for asking for Fuhr. Since you seem to have voodoo powers, who do you like this year?

    uni: Never mind the farm. I want a good NHL team.

  33. ian says:

    Which players would have to be moved to make room for Jay Bo?
    How easily would it be to do so?
    Why would we sign a top D man when we need more goal scoring?
    How much of an upgrade if any is Jay Bo over our two current stud D men?
    Color me unconvinced.

  34. Scott says:

    I love math, but NHL scouts are really good at their jobs. If the Oilers scouts told me to draft this big Finn goalie at 40, I'd do it.

    Thanks for the Kaberle story LT. I do agree that it was a mistake not to take Kaberle. He fits the profile of a guy that works out well in the 4th through 7th rounds. He was youngish in his draft year and a defenceman. Plus, it sounds like he was off the beaten path which would seem to make it more likely he'd been overlooked by others. With the goalie though, 40th OV is still high enough that you have a decent shot at a real player. Goalies bust way more often. If he's still there in the 4th through 7th rounds, by all means, use a pick if your scouts like him, but 40th is just way too soon.

    Also, on the subject of goalies, it seems to me that the NHL as a league got scared off years ago when the habs drafted a bunch of goalies really high and they washed out.

    But teams got tired of seeing Hasek go in the 40th round so since 2000 (it seems to me) the goalies are selected higher.

    This thing with Montreal must have been pre-1990 because they didn't take any goalies high in the early 90s. The distribution of goalies is changing so that more are getting taken a bit earlier but I think that's as much a function of the draft only being seven rounds now then anything. Here are the stats:

    1990-1994
    1st round – 7
    2nd to 4th – 23
    5th and on – 109

    1995-1999
    1st round – 13
    2nd to 4th – 39
    5th and on – 66

    2000-2004
    1st round – 14
    2nd to 4th – 43
    5th and on – 103

    Draft Changes to Seven Round Format

    2005-2008 (one year less)
    1st round – 8
    2nd to 4th – 41
    5th and on – 43

    Perhaps it's more to do with the quality of netminding but teams have been more leery of first rounders the last few years compared to the last decade. None of the guys in this last group have really established themselves yet so it's still very early to judge, though some early picks look promising (Price, Varlamov).

  35. doritogrande says:

    Which players would have to be moved to make room for Jay Bo?.

    My thoughts are that it'd be a big-salary defenseman. One of Visnovsky (my preference) or Souray. I think Visnovsky's contract is also much more of a tradable asset than Souray's, season ending injury notwithstanding.

    How easily would it be to do so?.

    I believe it's easier to do so than one would believe. Puck-movers are still high in demand. I'm not sure which GM's are specifically shopping for a defenseman of Visnovsky's talents, but you'd have to think Columbus, NYI, Montreal, Ottawa and Buffalo could feasibly come calling.

    We'd have to take some salary back for sure, but we have a couple contracts that a rich owner could decide to bury in the minors for the duration of a season or two (Staios, Nilsson). Visnovsky for a draft pick/prospect and reliable 3rd liner making >3M? I'd do that.

    Why would we sign a top D man when we need more goal scoring?.

    Defense wins championships? Ever hear that one? Having Bouwmeester on the ice for half the game puts us back to the year of Pronger. And this time we have a partner in Gilbert that he (Bouwmeester) can play off of. We stapled Pronger with guys like Bergeron or Smith who, while are good in their own rights, were or still aren't #2 guys.

    Offensively, Bouwmeester is no slouch either. Informed hockey minds will tell you that all scoring starts from your own end out. If you have gifted, mobile puck guys on your blueline, the forwards are freed up to do their thing. Having Heatley up front may provide for some goals, but who gets the assists?

    He doesn't have to be a 1-line PP guy. Souray and Grebeshkov are still here for that.

    How much of an upgrade if any is Jay Bo over our two current stud D men?.

    Check the birth years:
    - Visnovsky: 1976
    - Souray: 1976
    - Bouwmeester: 1983

    If we want to be competitive for years to come, we need younger talent. Not everybody can be the Detroit Red Wings.

    Still not convinced? Let's bring out durability. GP over the last four seasons:
    - Visnovsky: 80, 69, 82, 50
    - Souray: 75, 81, 26, 81
    - Bouwmeester: 82, 82, 82, 82

    Your best players can only be your best players when they're in the lineup. Jay hasn't missed a game since the lockout.

    He's not as offensively gifted as Lubo, who sports a higher ppg average, but these numbers aren't comparable. Lubo didn't play his first NHL game until he was 25. Where he scored 39 points. Bouwmeester's 25-year old season saw 42 points, three more than Visnovsky.

    You have your own opinion, and you're welcome to it, but numbers don't lie. Jay Bouwmeester is superior to any defenseman we have.

  36. doritogrande says:

    Visnovsky for a draft pick/prospect and reliable 3rd liner making >3M? I'd do that.

    Dammit. That should have read <3M.

  37. jon k says:

    I agree with a lot of the things that dorito is saying.

    If we can swing Bouwmeester our way, you make room for him on the roster.

    He's a durable defensive stalwart who logs more minutes than any other defenseman in the league.

    If we can move one of the big price tags on the backend for a high pick (2nd) and a checking line centre making decent money I think that's a win.

  38. Forain says:

    So, Gregor says one Ryan Clowe might be available at the draft. My inclination is to say he's not a top 6 guy. He'd be an awfully pricey bottom 6 guy…

  39. PDO says:

    Clowe would be a big mistake.

  40. Bruce says:

    Bruce: Thank you for asking for Fuhr. Since you seem to have voodoo powers, who do you like this year?

    Hunter: Yer welcome. The guys who intrigues me this year is Ryan Ellis. Very risky pick, based on current info he seems likely to be greatly at variance with his draft number … he could outperform it by a lot, or he could become a powerplay specialist. He will have to be truly exceptional to overcome the size issue. Having seen the likes of Reijo Ruotsalainen, Norm Maciver, Greg Hawgood, and Marc-Andre Bergeron deal with that issue with varying degrees of success, let's just say I can understand if the Oil are reluctant to go in that direction. But the guy seems to be almost a generational offensive talent, and that always excites me.

    Quinn coached him twice, I hope they have asked for his input along the way.

  41. kris says:

    I really don't understand why anyone would pay a 3rd round pick, or anything, to get the right to talk to Bouwm. for the next few days.

    Moreover, if Bouwm. has waited this long to sign a deal, he must think the best way to get the best contract is on the open market after July 1. Why would he give a team any sort of deal.

    What am I missing? It seems insane to trade anything for Bouwm at this point or to even talk about it, but it must be something GMs are considering. (and have done in the past.)

  42. kris says:

    Clowe, no.

  43. gogliano says:

    I think the idea of bargaining rights is justified if one thinks who one is dealing with isn't a straightforwardly "self-interested" calculator and is motivated by things like pride and honor. Someone like Jagr was explicit that the interest the Oilers showed in him moved them up on the list of teams he would consider if he returned to the NHL. I think that is the best defense of dealing for bargaining rights: you don't simply get the chance to bargain for a few extra days, to stand apart from the crowd of suitors, you show the player that you think they are worthy of special interest, and that they will be accorded such respect if they join the organization. I'm sure this has an impact, especially on players whose egos have been stroked for years. It isn't a bad play if the cost is low enough and the player is of the type that is influenced by such motivations.

  44. kris says:

    Gogliano,

    I guess that's possible, but I really don't see it.

    If I'm Bowmeester's agent, I'd say if the team that traded for your rights really loves you, they'll outbid the competition.

    I'd imagine players trust their agents, and for the agents this is all business. Get your client the best deal in a place he'll be happy.

    Anyway, sorry to threadjack. I'll stop now.

  45. Bruce says:

    Here's another key stat on Jay Bouwmeester:

    6 NHL seasons, 2002-09

    471 regular season GP
    0 post season GP

    I really like Bouwmeester but this sets off a red flag with me. If the guy was a real difference-maker surely his team would start making the playoffs at some point. Yeah, I know, he's only one guy, but since the lockout the Panthers always seem to have a team ready to break through and it never actually does. Surely one of the reasons is that some of their young guys just never seem to make the next step, and you gotta put JayBo on the list of suspects. He's always had a quality netminder behind him (Luongo, Belfour, Vokoun, arguably Anderson), and with guys emerging like Weiss, Horton, Booth, Frolik, Ballard they're not short on talent. Before the current wave they had Olli Jokinen putting up points for years, and their line-up always seems to have a good sprinkling of solid veterans like Nieuwendyk, Gelinas, Dvorak, Skrastins. What's missing?

    This year the Panthers made it to 41 wins for the first time in JayBo's career, had a goal differential of +3 and were just mediocre enough to miss the playoffs despite a favourable schedule, SouthLeast style. A meh team.

    Statistically JayBo is indistinguishable from a solid but hardly underpaid teammate:

    Bouwmeester: 82 GP, 15-27-42, -2
    McCabe: 69 GP, 15-24-39, -1

    JayBo had 9 powerplay goals and McCabe 8.

    Of course Bouwmeester's minutes are of different quality which is a hugely important factor which I don't want to sell short. Still and all, he had the highest QualComp of any Florida defender this year (+0.07) and also had the highest QualTeam (+0.12). Playing with and against the best, he essentially broke even. Which is all well and good I suppose, but we're not playing for the tie here. We need outscorers. Especially for $100 million or whatever ridiculous number is being thrown about.

    *Devil's advocate mode: [off]*

  46. IceDragoon says:

    Good day, strangers.
    ;-D

    Bruce: Ryan Ellis. Very risky pick, based on current info he seems likely to be greatly at variance with his draft number … he could outperform it by a lot, or he could become a powerplay specialist. He will have to be truly exceptional to overcome the size issue. Having seen the likes of Reijo Ruotsalainen, Norm Maciver, Greg Hawgood, and Marc-Andre Bergeron deal with that issue with varying degrees of success, let's just say I can understand if the Oil are reluctant to go in that direction. But the guy seems to be almost a generational offensive talent, and that always excites me.

    Quinn coached him twice, I hope they have asked for his input along the way.

    A few of my own thoughts, Bruce.

    There are some very smart young men in this draft.
    :-D

    Considering grey matter over all else, landing one of Schroeder or Glennie would bring a Cogliano sized smile to my face. That said, if we happen to draft Kane(wildest dream) or Ellis, I'll be Gagner grinning all day long.

    Dancing into the decimals of the 99th percentile is BIG BRAINS, indeed. These are the guys who achieve their goals ~99.99% of the time.
    ;-D

    btw – I really liked MAB. (just ask Lain) But, he had more limitations between his ears than in his stature.

    L8r
    Louise

  47. PDO says:

    ID is here…. insanity. I love it ;).

    IF the Oilers can find a way to get Kane, I'll be seen dancing through the streets. In fact, I'd target him over any other player in the draft, because I think you'd get the best bang for your buck in what you had to give up to get to #4 to get the player that I think Kane can be.

    I'm torn on Ellis, but I certainly wouldn't be sad if we took him.

    Surprised there's no mention of Kulikov though – if we're talking Grey Matter, I'll take "Guys who move over to foreign country and learn the language in less than a year."

  48. IceDragoon says:

    PDO -
    I can't glean the same info on the Europeans that I can on North Americans. I'd suspect that Kulikov is highly intelligent, tho… He learned both french and english, btw.

  49. Lowetide says:

    ID: Thanks as always for this. :-)

  50. PDO says:

    I can't glean the same info on the Europeans that I can on North Americans. I'd suspect that Kulikov is highly intelligent, tho… He learned both french and english, btw.

    That's nothing short of amazing, especially considering he did this while keeping a workout schedule, (presumably) attending school and of course playing in the CHL.

    Kane just seems like too much of a dream, but I'd be pretty damn happy with any of Ellis/Glennie/Kullikov; and I'm not even a fan of drafting D in the 1st round…

  51. Bruce says:

    Hey Louise! Great to see your font. Thanks for your always insightful remarks.

    Can't speak to his general intelligence, but what I've seen of Ellis on the ice, which now includes the U-18, U-20 and Memorial Cup tournaments (all of which saw his team emerge with the big prize), he has struck me as off-the-charts hockey smart. He runs the powerplay like a seasoned veteran, and a star one at that. Great shot, finds room to let 'er fly but knows when to just sift it through traffic, excellent vision, just the right amount of un/selfishness. In limited observation time he has shown an uncanny, almost Huddyesque ability to keep the puck in at the blueline, an advanced and underrated skill.

    I think he's a sure bet to succeed as a PPQB, and has such an advanced game in this respect that would warrant a roster spot whatever his other deficiencies may remain.

    I too liked MAB, thought he got a raw deal here especially in 2006-07 (when Toby F. Petersen took his spot on the point, and stayed there despite scoring 1 freaking point in 87 minutes PP TOI). The lack of stature and not infrequent enough brain cramps were a bad combination, however. I still root for the guy and was happy to see him land on his feet in Minny, though I'm more than happy with the guy we got for him. I'd be happier still if we ever got around to re-signing said guy (Grebeshkov), but that's a whole 'nother thread.

    And here's another: Michael Jackson has reportedly died.

  52. IceDragoon says:

    PDO: Kane just seems like too much of a dream

    Atlanta has #4. If Kane's still there, I think Tambellini tries to swing for the fences. And, it will hurt if he connects, imho.

  53. Derek says:

    Atlanta has #4. If Kane's still there, I think Tambellini tries to swing for the fences. And, it will hurt if he connects, imho.

    ID, you feel that Kane won't develop into the type of NHL player that warrants moving up into the draft for, or do you feel it will be too costly?

  54. PDO says:

    Gagner & Hemsky are the only two guys not on the table to move up to #4.

  55. Derek says:

    "That said, if we happen to draft Kane(wildest dream) or Ellis, I'll be Gagner grinning all day long."

    I guess I should read a little closer before I ask questions. I wonder what sort of assets would have to be moved to make drafting kane a reality? If you move a defenseman to get into that spot then you better have another lined up via Free agency or trade.

    Picking up Kane to provide size and scoring down the wing during the Gagner era is definately something to be excited about, unfortunately it seems moving up in the draft is almost always a pipedream.

  56. kris says:

    I haven't seen Kane play much, but he seems a little too Brule-esque to be a sure thing. Plays a power game and he's apparently about a buck seventy.

    Good pick, great pick even, but too risky to sell your soul for.

  57. Ribs says:

    I'm not sold on Kane at all. I'm really amazed at the attention he gets.

    The one guy I hope can slip through the radar and the Oilers can pick up is John Moore. He's got an NHL body and skates like the wind. Solid, solid, pick. And I don't even like taking defensemen in the first round. If Glennie is gone (I assume he's the target), go for Moore.

  58. IceDragoon says:

    When I can, Lain. :-)

    I should have been clear that I've only looked into the few guys in the range of the Oilers' first, plus the big fish they covet, Kane. I'll dig more after the draft and let you know what I get. As you know, I can't get the goods on everyone, but really big brains leave their mark, so to speak, I will find them.
    :-D
    Tho, it could take a little time.

    Right back at you, Bruce.

    I didn't see Ellis play in the U-18s, but was very impressed with how old he looked in the U-20s. He was an underager expected to be a PP specialist, but showed himself to be a trustworthy Dman for Quinn. If this guy is even 2" taller we're talking top 3 pick, imho.

    fwiw – Bergeron is not smart, but he is very stubborn. He kept repeating mistakes and seemed to be learning nothing from them. This frustrated MacTavish to the breaking point.

    A little bird told me that in a rather heated discussion MacT told Lowe to trade MAB. Lowe shot back that there was no one to replace him on the PP point. Next game Toby Petersen was on the point and Bergeron was on the bench. One week later MAB was on the island. Another week passed and Ryan Smyth joined him. The rebuild was on.

    btw – I really like Grebeshkov. And, I seem to recall saying (here?) that acquiring Visnovsky could bring out the best in him.

    PDO: Gagner & Hemsky are the only two guys not on the table to move up to #4.

    Yup.

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