Hit List

If we take away things like cap number and depth chart, Jay Bouwmeester is the “man” at this year’s entry draft. If a team can acquire his rights (and get him signed) in the next couple of days for a third round pick (or thereabouts), that’s a good summer right there. JayBo isn’t the only gem available via trade in the next couple of days, with some quality free agents added in. Here’s my wish list, feel free to add names.

  1. Jay Bouwmeester
  2. Marian Hossa
  3. Marian Gaborik
  4. Martin Havlat
  5. Marc Savard
  6. Jason Spezza
  7. Josh Harding
  8. Kari Lehtonen
  9. Alex Tanguay
  10. Stephen Weiss
  11. Ryan Smyth
  12. Dany Heatley
  13. Colby Armstrong
  14. Alexei Ponikarovsky
  15. Dwayne Roloson
  16. David Backes
  17. Jaraslav Halak
  18. Nik Antropov
  19. Ryan Clowe
  20. Mikael Samuelsson
  21. Tomas Vokoun (higher, save for $$’s)

Even one player plucked from that list could have a major impact on this hockey club.

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49 Responses to "Hit List"

  1. PDO says:

    http://twitter.com/DarrenDreger

    Bouwmeester expected to be dealt tonight.

    LT, if the Oilers acquire Jay Bouw tonight…

    Well, I don't know, but I'm thanking you for this kinda timing.

  2. Mr DeBakey says:

    The Bruin's Cap situation is dire

    One of:
    Kessel
    Bergeron
    Ryder
    Maybe two

    Vinny rumours continue to fly

  3. Clodagh says:

    Funny I just got a text
    Tambo ain't goin nowhere
    "Is it safe?" he said again

  4. Clodagh says:

    Ok ,
    It was funnier before traktor deleted his post

  5. Traktor says:

    Tambellini doesn't have the stones to trade for Bow.

    Or Heatley.

    We're going overpay for Clowe and Harding and miss the playoffs again next year.

    Hopefully we're bad enough to get Taylor Hall.

  6. Bar Qu says:

    Some unbridled enthusiasm from Traktor

  7. Oilmaniac says:

    if a third is really the asking price for Bouw.. (like, for real?!)

    nilsson tops that, imo…

  8. jesse r says:

    I still don't understand why anyone ever trades for pending UFAs' rights.

    The player has to believe that the new team's contract offer is better than anything he'll get in July.

    The team, meanwhile, has to believe that they're signing him for less than it will cost them once he's unrestricted, by at least the value of what they gave up in the trade.

    From the team's perspective,it only makes sense if they believe that they know better than the player does what his own value is on the market, AND that the player is underestimating his own value.

    Does JayBo seem like the kind of player who would underestimate what he's worth (that's not a rhetorical question, either. I'm really not sure)?

  9. Oilmaniac says:

    agreed tho.. trading for Bouw's rights… having to trade one of the no-movement clause d-men (including the gentlemans agreement w Vish to honor his LA no-movement clause).. that would take serious stones…

    high reward, decent risk.. hard not to agree w you traktor, but at the same time.. not many GMs getter done like you/we're talking about here…

  10. Lowetide says:

    Signing Bouwmeester long term would give the organization a building block of tremendous proportions for the future.

    He's an outstanding talent just heading into his prime.

  11. Gerta Rauss says:

    You've gotta think that the asking price of a 3rd round pick is to TALK to J-Bo,and a condition would be placed on his rights(ie:a conditional 1st rounder) if he were to sign with you.

    And it would take stones to push 1 of our big contracts as the condition,rather than the traditional draft pick(s).

    And you trade for a players rights if you've identified him as a player you REALLY want on your team- in this case I believe J-Bo is a franchise D,better than any of our current D,and a player you throw one of the Franzen-stein contracts at.
    Trading for a players rights gets you out in front of the other 28 teams that may be interested come July 1.
    Not something you do with every player,but in this case…

  12. kris says:

    Jesse:

    I don't get it either.

  13. Lowetide says:

    Plus the Oilers haven't signed Grebeshkov yet, so if they can't offload Souray or Visnovsky they could trade Grebeshkov or Gilbert.

    Plus something else, obviously. But it could be done.

  14. kris says:

    LT:

    What about the Sedin twins for your list?

  15. Lowetide says:

    kris: If they were available, the Sedins would be right at the top. But I believe VCR will sign them.

  16. Bruce says:

    Whazzup with Grebeshkov anyway? That was a "done deal" 6 weeks ago.

  17. Art Vandelay says:

    Jesse, not only are you spot-on from an economics standpoint, but in the real world does anybody really believe teams wait until noon on July 1 to start talking?

    When TSN announced at about 12:05 that Jeremy Roenick had signed that billion-dollar deal a few years ago, it's a little much to ask me to believe that deal came together in five minutes.

    Has anyone considered that Holmgren was just sending back the "future considerations on his previous @n@l rapes of Nashville? Nashville basically loaded up the Flyers' playoff run on the No Money Down, Do Not Pay Until June 30 plan. Maybe the "traded for the right to talk to David Poile's grandma" was just a cover story for paying off on that favour. The entire thing, including the FA signing, could have been cooked up at the trading deadline.

    This is the NHL, after all. You know, the one where half the league was once owned by the mob, errrrrr, the Norris family.

  18. Oilman says:

    Vern Fiddler should be on your list – about mid point

  19. Gerta Rauss says:

    Apparently Luongo has signed an extension,and according to league rules they can't negotiate a contract 'til July 1…how's that for a segue Art..?

    http://www.team1040.ca/news/story/?id=2159

  20. The Forechecker says:

    I'm surprised that if he's on your list, Tomas Vokoun isn't right up near the top. Just about any goals-prevented analysis places him consistently right at the top of the league over the last 3-4 seasons, standing well ahead of the great mass of goalies that are pretty much equivalent.

    He may be pricey, but he's worth it.

  21. Deano says:

    The only way I see value in trading for the players rights is if you believe that you are his #1 destination anyway. There has to be a reasonable chance that he will sign without going to F.A.

    Does anyone think that the Oilers are JayBo's #1 desination?

  22. oilerdiehard says:

    LT – Since Colby Armstrong is high on your list. I was just looking at Oilfans. There is another one of those posters that claim they have inside info or something. Anyway he says the Oil and Atlanta are hot in talks and the package right now is Patty 'O + Smid for Kari Lehtonen + Colby Armstrong. If nothing else it is an interesting trade package to discuss. :)

  23. Anonymous says:

    Ryan Smyth? Are you crazy? He's old and has a brutal contract. No thanks. Last thing the Oilers need is to handcuff themselves to Smyth on the verge of a shrinking cap. That's just crazy talk.

  24. kris says:

    Deano,

    It still doesn't make any sense. If I know the player will sign with me on July 1, why am I throwing draft picks away instead of waiting a week.

    If I don't know the player will sign with me, how does acquiring his rights a week before he hits the open market improve my chances of signing him. The player has waited this long, why not wait longer?

    It really doesn't make any sense. But it happens.

    I'm not sure about Art's cynical, but interesting, interpretation. Seems a bit post hoc ergo propter hoc.

  25. PDO says:

    Traktor.

    That's uh… a very scary thought. Ryane Clowe is a bad, bad, bad, BAD idea.

    If we go down that road, I'm blaming you….

    I have a nasty feeling we're going to offer the moon for Vinny Lecavalier….

  26. spOILer says:

    I would like to add Nathan Horton, if possible.

    No love for Tanguay, Cammalleri or any of the rumoured Flyers?

    Would anyone give up our 10th for any of the players on the list? I think we'd all give it up to move up. It would be sweet to add to the Gagner, Eberle, Nash, Cogs cluster.

    Getting JBo would seem to mean another summer of huge dressing room turnover, if they're also going to address 1LW.

    Lehtonen I'm iffy on depending on contract and groin health. Harding the same as far as contract goes… I hate paying goalies the big bucks without knowing how well they'll handle playoff pressure.

    Armstrong is coming off a year with a high shooting percentage. Is that the best time to sign him to a contract? Is he a consistent 20 goal scorer the next 3-5 years? Where would he play? 2RW? Or is he taking Pisani's spot? He'd bring some needed grit though and help the 2nd line stop bleeding goals if that's where they slot him.

    Armtrong and Lehtonen would be the kind of smaller adjustment that LT has been talking up. It's a trade aimed at addressing grit and goals against. An argument could be made that those were bigger issues last season than goal-scoring and offensive talent level, especially after the additions at the deadline.

    What would you give up for those two and what could you sign them for? The rumour says O'Sullivan and Smid. I really don't think I can make that trade for those players.

    Why are we hearing zippo about acquiring a 3C from anyone? That worries me.

    Is the plan for Cogliano to take another shot at it? And if not, where the hell is he playing next year?

    DET has allegedly pitched Hossa and is waiting to hear.

    Meanwhile… Jagr lurks off-stage.

  27. Lowetide says:

    Tanguay should be on the list, I'll add him. The 3C problem is something that should be handled later in the summer imo.

  28. Gerta Rauss says:

    Trading for a players rights is dependant on the price,of course.

    In J-Bo's case,he is the #1 UFA and a franchise defenceman-that is worth a 3rd round pick to find out for sure IMO.

    It mostly a bird in the hand thing…

    And it would set up Tambo for the draft floor tomorrow and into July 1.

    And in a perfect world you push some salary out the door when the deal is consumated.

  29. geowal says:

    Two reasons to trade for negotiating rights:

    1. Future moves, whether trades or further signings, depend on what happens with the aquired player. If you're distracted with Bouwmeester on July 1st, you're behind the eight ball with plan B. Kind of like losing Glencross because we were waiting on Hossa. This way you can start July 1st on plan B mode (or be smug in plan A having worked).

    2. You want a player like Bouwmeester locked up for the sake of impressing other free agents on UFA day, either because they want to play with him or it "shows we're serious"

    Not saying these are good reasons, but they are reasons.

  30. kris says:

    Gerta:

    If having his rights doesn't increase the chance he'll sign, having his rights is worthless. A bird not in your hand is not worth two in the bush.

    Geowal:

    Maybe, but those are bad reasons. Just like, doing it to impress your fans is a bad reason too.

    Reason 2. is a bit odd and would, by the same logic, backfire if you didn't sign the player by July 1 when UFA's become available. Prospective UFA's will think you're really desperate. There's as much downside as upside here.

    Reason 1. would make some sense if July 1st weren't a week away. Imagine: We send Bouwmeester an offer tonight after getting his rights and he says, "I'll get back to you July 10th." Or, we send him an offer the morning of July 1st, and he says "I'll get back to you July 10th."

    There's just no upside. This of course means we'll probably do it.

  31. Gerta Rauss says:

    and what if he say yes Kris,and signs with us.

    Worth it?

  32. Bar Qu says:

    Kris & Gerta

    I believe a third rounder is essentially a random guess rather than an actual attempt to get a player. Maybe an educated random guess, but still whoever you get is still unlikely to make it to the show.

    Thus, yeah, it is weird to give up something to talk to the guy, but if it is giving up something with little value, then what the hay.

  33. kris says:

    Gerta:

    If getting his rights doesn't increase the chances of his signing, then no. (No use buying a more expensive lottery ticket if it doesn't increase your chances of winning.)

    The more I think about it, the more I think Art is sort of right about teams already talking to free agents.

    That is, my guess is that's what is happening now is that teams are contacting Florida to see if J-Bo will sign with them for such and such. Once an offer comes in, the Panthers phone J-Bo, he says "No let's see what others are offering." Then, some other team hears that there's a bid out for J-Bo and bids higher. Eventually J-Bo says that's the best deal I can get really. And the deal for J-Bo's rights only goes through if he sort of informally promises to sign with the team he's dealt to, who have informally promised to pay such and such.

    Really this trading of rights stuff just means starting free agency early. Has to.

    It's illegal, I suppose, but why would anyone care? Florida gets something for playing the middleman. JBo gets to be on the market before everyone has spent all their cap money. Makes sense.

  34. oil dude says:

    Well it's finally Christmas eve, and Tencer reports that the player the Oilers wanted to talk to again today is none other than John Moore…. Guy at TPS also mentioned that Moore "blew them away" during the combine interview. Perhaps Moore is the plan if none of the big guys drop to 10.

  35. PDO says:

    Moore at 10 is a reach according to every single scouting service. Nobody had him over 12, and Redline had him all the way down at 21….

  36. Lowetide says:

    It would be an "okay" pick, but if they want Moore one suspects they could trade back a little and get an extra pick.

  37. Boondock says:

    Well it's finally Christmas eve, and Tencer reports that the player the Oilers wanted to talk to again today is none other than John Moore.

    According to the interviews posted on the Oilers website, they also re-interviewed MPS and Glennie last night.

  38. Fake Craig McTavish says:

    oil dude said…
    Well it's finally Christmas eve, and Tencer reports that the player the Oilers wanted to talk to again today is none other than John Moore…. Guy at TPS also mentioned that Moore "blew them away" during the combine interview. Perhaps Moore is the plan if none of the big guys drop to 10.

    John Moore will be the steal of this year's draft.

  39. Gerta Rauss says:

    I'm quoting the latest rumour re:
    3rd rounder…who knows what the asking price is.

    We do know that Philly gave up a
    1st for (rights to,then signed) Hartnell and Timonen a couple years back,so this is nothing new.

    And talking to the player first is exactly what you're paying for…you get to talk to him ahead of the 28 other jackals nipping at your heels.

  40. Bar Qu says:

    Staples backs up my point in his latest post – when you draft you are shooting from the back of a horse at a moving target. And every pick made takes you further away from the target. So, giving up one of two third rounders? not that big a deal.

  41. JK says:

    Hey Lowetide,

    I've been following your blog semi-religiously for about a year now, and let me just say that it is the gold standard against which all other Edmonton Oiler blogs should be measured. In fact, it often transcends the genre completely. As this is my first ever comment on one of your posts, I just wanted to take the time to say, "Thank you." In fact you have inspired me to start recently an Oiler fan blog of my own over at http://boysonthebus.blogspot.com/

    Anyway, on with the show or so to speak…

    I agree that Bouwmeester is the man. There has got to be a way to land him and move one of Souray, Visnovsky, or Gilbert plus Nilsson. I'm not so much in favor of Hossa, Gaborik, Havlat, or Savard, but it would be great to see Spezza in an Oiler uniform, or to see Smitty come back or to land Heatley and Antropov. I'm not convinced any of Harding, Lehtonen, or Halak is the answer in goal ahead of the likes of even someone like Garon, unless of course one of these "young goalies with upside" is able to prove it after toiling for a season or so under someone like Roli or Vokoun.

    That's my $.02.

    For a look back at the epic 1979 NHL Entry Draft or to see which character from "The Goonies" reminds me of Darryl Sutter, check out:

    http://boysonthebus.blogspot.com/

  42. Gerta Rauss says:

    And talking to the player first is exactly what you're paying for…

    this was a poor choice of words on my part-

    Getting an answer from J-Bo is exactly what you're paying for.

  43. CM says:

    I would take heatley at 7.5 before I would go anywhere near the 60 games smyth will give you for 6.25 for the next three years…

    I don't think there is a worse contract our side of the NYR than the Smyth contract.

  44. jesse r says:

    Gerta:

    That's fine if the answer you get back is ABSOLUTLY or ABSOLUTLY NOT, but if your offer is anywhere at all in the range of a good, reasonable hockey desicion, the player is way more likely to answer 'We'll see'.

  45. DBO says:

    Why are people so down on Ryan Clowe and so excited about Colby Armstrong? Aren't they the same player, but clowe is more physical? Let's compare
    clowe Armstrong
    Age: 26 26
    Goals: 22 22
    Assists: 30 18
    PIM: 51 75
    PPG: 11 3
    S%: 13.7 15.6
    Hits: 135 88
    Shots: 161 141
    Corsi: 13.2 .8
    Qual Comp: .01 .06
    Qual team: .09 .01
    GF/60 2.51 2.84
    GA/60 1.84 2.31
    Age: 26 26
    Height: 6.2 6.2
    lbs: 225 195

    They are similar players. Clowe played on a way better team which probably accounts for the assist total. Armstong scored more 5on5. Clowe had way more hits and is 30 lbs heavier. Both had high shooting %.

    not sure what it tells us, but I don't see a huge difference betweeen them,. i'd take em both to be honest. There's your 2nd line LW/RW.

  46. PDO says:

    DBO:

    I think Clowe is going to get a much larger pay day than Armstrong.

  47. Gerta Rauss says:

    I like the right handed shot of Armstrong,and I agree,I bet he comes cheaper than Clowe.

    Atlanta's got a nice batch of goalies as well…I'd take any of the 3 in a package deal of some sort.

  48. Ribs says:

    Awesome. I didn't hear the Tencer stuff but Moore is my guy. I agree with LT though, trade down to get him if you know he's not getting picked up (Tencer stuff doesn't help this).

  49. Ribs says:

    Also…Dreger on twitter is a bit repulsive. Can't we leave that to Eklund & Co.?

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