Oilers Top 20, June 2009

This is Theo Peckham, showing some of the grit and determination fans have come to appreciate from the young man. Although he’s still a prospect and a long way from helping the major league team win, there’s a lot to like about him.

I was struck by the fact that Peckham seemed more comfortable than most of the recalls on the blue over the last few seasons. He’s still a born minus in the NHL, but he’s already displaying a confidence in himself and a willingness to rise to the challenge.

I think he’s going to be a very good NHL player. We’ll see.

I usually post this the week of the draft but decided to do it earlier this time around. This isn’t the one I do after the draft (those drafts and the Christmas ones are posted to the right) but it’s a kind of set up for my post draft top 20. I have Liam Reddox graduating despite not being at the 50 game mark for his NHL career.

  1. D Theo Peckham: His arrows are all pointed in the right direction. A hard-nosed defender who can fight, he can also hit and block shots. He’s risen to the top of the Falcons blue and although it’s a terrible team that’s a tough league and Peckham played the toughest available opposition and survived (-7). Quinn should see a lot of himself in this fellow and I suspect graduation day will come in 09-10. Winter rank: #3.
  2. C Riley Nash: Improved nicely season over season, and that combined with a wide range of skills makes him next on the list. Concerns over size (he’s tall enough but resembles a pencil) and the short season the brainiacs at Cornell play keep him out of top spot this time around. Winter rank: #1.
  3. R Jordan Eberle: The most famous prospect in the system courtesy a spectacular (and timely) goal at the World Juniors. Eberle stalled after the WJC’s and even though we can make allowances for team etc, the numbers serve as warning in terms of expectations. We shouldn’t expect him to have a big training camp and make the big club in the fall, even with a pretty strong AHL debut this spring. Winter rank: #2.
  4. D Alexandre Plante: He lost an entire season to injury, but recovered this past season and had a quality season on a very good club. He was signed just the other day after a short period where it looked like there might be a disconnect between player and organization. His skating is going to be an issue, but the things that got him drafted in the first round (size, skill, reach) are still there. Winter rank: #5.
  5. C Chris Vande Velde: The big man had a fine season. He managed a 56% faceoff percentage, scored well (18-17-35 in 43 games) and was +10 on a team with only two players in double black digits. He’ll play another season in college in 09-10 and the possibility exists that he’ll have a brief minor league career ala Shawn Horcoff once he turns pro next summer. Winter rank: #8.
  6. C Teemu Hartikainen: A big jump for the Big Finn but he had a beauty season at a very young age. Hartikainen’s season at 18 (51gp, 17-6-23) is even more impressive when split (he went 10-5-15 in his final 20 games). He has size, skill and gumption, with foot speed keeping him from the upper echelon. Winter rank: #18.
  7. C Linus Omark: He took a huge step forward this season and would rank higher save for the birth certificate. Omark’s monster season came at 21, and it’s important to remember that he’s 4 months older than Cogliano. He’s 7 months younger than Rob Schremp. I can see him being a late bloomer and am all for bringing him over to see what he can do, but the idea that the Oilers should part the waves for him is a non-starter based on his age when the light went on. Winter rank: #10.
  8. C Milan Kytnar: He turned 20 the other day and celebrated with a contract not long after. I like his size, skill set and the splits (35gp, 9-16-25 early and 30gp, 18-21-39 later on) and most of all the fact that he has a wide range of skills. Winter rank: #20.
  9. G Devan Dubnyk: I placed him here because the big kid actually improved his number on a terrible team. Not by a lot (.904 to .906) but that Falcon team was awful and the coach overworked Dubnyk for much of the season. It’s important to get some support for the real prospects in the minors and Dubnyk is surely one of them. Winter rank: 15th.
  10. L Philippe Cornet: He had a terrific season. He started 31gp, 11-24-35 and ended 32gp, 18-24-42. Let’s not get too carried away (he’s still a small forward) but there are things to like and he’s certainly a prospect of interest moving forward. Winter rank: #19.
  11. D Taylor Chorney: Man he had a period of adjustment. In his first 34 games he looked as bad as bad can be: 34gp, 2-7-9 -21. In the second half things settled down (34gp, 3-9-12 -8) to the point where I’d guess the Oilers can count on him to have a good season in the AHL if they don’t run him out there against the angry men in that league. However, he is not close to NHL ready based on 08-09. Winter rank: #11.
  12. G Jeff Deslauriers: He spent most of the season with the Oilers, but incredibly played only 540 minutes. He’s still nowhere near a proven talent, plus there’s a new coach in town and I suspect one of the first requests will be two goalies he can count on. Still, he made it to the show and credit where due. Winter rank: #12.
  13. D Cody Wild: He had a weird year. Wild was a healthy scratch fairly often and he spent time in the ECHL, but based on Jonathan’s quality of competition numbers he played some pretty tough veteran opposition (especially early). I think we’re going to get one good defensemen from the college trio of Chorney, Wild and Petry, and haven’t a freaking clue which one it’ll be at this point. Winter rank: #9.
  14. D Johan Motin: He moves up not just because of the fact he played in the SEL at age 18, but also because the scouting report looked good the day he was taken. He’s got an edge to his game, and he’s got enough size to be considered an NHL option. Winter rank: #17.
  15. L Ryan Stone: He’s a gritty winger with some skill. More than that, he’s the type of player the Oilers lacked at the big league level. He could have a lot of success with the new coach if he comes in and rattles some cages in TC. Not ranked in winter.
  16. D Jeff Petry: Wow what a bad season. Petry started the year by going 18gp, 1-6-7 -11 and capped it off with a tidy 20gp, 1-6-7 -20! He was -31 for the season and no other defender was worse than -22. There was one guy who was +1! Sign that guy. I’ve been a little hard on Petry in the past (he’s still being touted in some circles as the club’s top prospect) and there’s every chance he’s not this bad. Winter rank: #7.
  17. C Rob Schremp: I swear something happened to this guy during the season. In December, he was showing some nice growth as a minor league EV scorer, a column that is important for any prospect. As of December 4, 2008 Schremp was 18gp, 1-12-13 .722 EV points-per-game and that was easily a career high for him. After that date, he went 51gp, 2-4-6 .112 at even strength. That’s an elevator shaft. Winter rank: #4.
  18. L Slava Trukhno: Unlike Schremp (who clearly had some issue–injury, coaching, confidence, American flag underwear too tight) I can’t really find the malady with this fellow. 28gp, 3-12-15 -3 in the first half, 28gp, 4-7-11 -10 in the season’s second stanza. I hope they give him another chance but he didn’t show much this season. Winter rank: #13.
  19. D Sebastien Bisaillon: Much like Wild, Bisaillon spent a lot of time in the ECHL this season. His scouting report said he needed to work on his defensive game, which combined with his small stature meant he’d have to be MA Bergeron with the puck to have an NHL career. He’s played in 52 AHL games so far, going 8-14-22 -4. Bergeron’s first 50 AHL games saw him go 2-13-15 +5 (on a much better team) so at least offensively we’re looking at a guy who is worth giving at-bats. Winter rank: #16.
  20. C Tyler Spurgeon: Doesn’t have enough pop in his bat to make the show, but he can play. Perhaps he should try the Brian Downing stance. Not ranked in winter.
  21. R Colin McDonald: On the list because he’s big winger and seems to have developed some during his minor league time. A long shot for the NHL based on lack of scoring ability. Not ranked in winter.

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53 Responses to "Oilers Top 20, June 2009"

  1. Jonathan Willis says:

    No Brule, Potulny, Jacques or Reddox? I’m guessing that Reddox is considered an NHL’er, but what about the other three?

  2. Lowetide says:

    Jonathan: All of them are now considered NHLers by my gauge.

    Brule 157 HL games
    Jacques 60 NHL games
    Potulny 52 NHL games
    Reddox 47 NHL games

    50′s my number, but there’s no real use including Reddox.

  3. Jonathan Willis says:

    LT: Gotcha. I knew that, I’m sure ;)

    Nice list; I could quibble with Bisaillon (I think he’s done, as you hinted at the other day) but it would just be quibbling.

    I love the splits by the way; I had no idea that Petry’s were so bad or Cornet’s were so good. Cornet has made up a lot of ground on Eberle, Tournament of Small Sample Sizes notwithstanding.

  4. Coach pb9617 says:

    He has size, skill and gumption, with foot speed keeping him from the upper echelon.

    From all of the reports that I’ve read, and lord knows I’ve translated enough articles on the kid, he’s got loads of high end speed – “Selanne Fast” – it’s his agility and change of direction that are lacking.

  5. Lowetide says:

    Jonathan: Yeah there were a ton of guys like Hrabal and Perugini and such at the bottom, but I decided on Bisaillon, Spurgeon and McDonald because it’s pretty damn tough to make the final step. And I’d look closer at Bumagin but who knows if he’s coming?

    As for Hartikainen, Redline report said “Hartikainen has good size/strength, but his feet are fairly heavy.”

  6. Lowetide says:

    btw, I know that guy sitting in the stands back of Peckham. I traded Hector Carrasco to him for Mark Wohlers just before Wohlers won the closer’s job.

    Bought my deck with the winnings. Thanks, Corey! And thanks as well for the invite to the game!!!

  7. oilerdago says:

    Great read as always LT:

    Potentially, this could be a good season for Oilers prospects. With the exception of Peckham, no one really is at the point of being ready to play in the show.

    Another year on the farm, juniors or in college will only help their development. No reason like 2 years ago to rush kids to the big stage and grow frustrated that their learning curve is not a straight line up. Let them master the pitching at this level instead of forcefeeding them.

    I'd might quibble a little w/Petry. Granted his numbers were awful. But from the games I saw him play on TV, he was playing too many minutes on a very bad team. If they looked at primary & secondary errors on GA, my sense would be he's not this bad as the boxcars would indicate.

    Another good draft this year would do wonders for the organization.

  8. Jonathan Willis says:

    LT: I know what you mean. Personally, I find the top of the list much easier than the bottom of the list; the guys at the top are generally well-defined and have obvious pros/cons, but the guys at the bottom all have a few good things that mean they could surprise, but trying to predict which ones will is awfully difficult.

  9. Coach pb9617 says:

    I think that the bottom was actually easier if you simply focused on one trait: chances of getting 500 ABs.

  10. Lowetide says:

    Coach: After the 20 listed here, you’ve got some failed late rounders, some knuckle draggers and a few guys barely hanging on to a pro contract.

    Someone will spend the summer learning the knuckler, or decide to get serious about conditioning. But we don’t know those things.

    I’d be interested in seeing your list, though.

  11. doritogrande says:

    Unless he’s really the Hockey Jesus, I don’t see Schremp playing in 87 (18+69) games this season.

    I’ll quibble with you on the placement of Nash v Eberle at this stanza. Do you really think with all the negative talk Prendergest has had regarding Nash’s development scenario that he’s the more likely bet to play NHL hockey? I’ve got Eberle beating him in both hockey ability and likelihood of NHL-play categories. I’d be giving the 2-slot to Eberle for upside, but to each his own.

    Of course, all this goes out the window once we get to add Kulikov’s name.

  12. Jonathan Willis says:

    At the bottom of the list, if love from the organization is the critical factor, I think Tim Sestito gets to hang around.

    Oh, and D.G. – Ryan Ellis. Kulikov’s a fine prospect (as are Glennie, Schroder, Kadri, Despres and the other options) but I think Ellis is special.

  13. Lowetide says:

    dorito: thanks for the tip on Schremp’s GP. I picked Nash for #2 but who the hell knows if its right. None of my rankings should be taken too seriously, I’m a fan.

    As for Kulikov, I’d say #10, #40, #71 and #82 could all make the top 20. Possibly #101 too.

  14. slipper says:

    “Bought my deck with the winnings.”.
    Aren’t you a little grey to be skateboarding, old man?

  15. Sean says:

    As a guy who doesn’t follow college hockey much, Vande Velde’s rank came as the biggest surprise. 6″2, 56% on the draws is something this organization sorely needs. The Fighting Sioux website also has him at 204 lbs – 15 higher than his hockeys future writeup. PPG is the number to me that indicates a difference maker in the NCAA. Both VV and Nash need to clear that line this year IMO. I can see VV following a path like Justin Abdelkader.

    #10 overall likely jumps to top spot post-draft by default.

  16. Smytty777 says:

    Great article LT, any guesses on who the Falcons might target as veteran AHLers to avoid the debacle that was the 08-09 season again?

  17. Lowetide says:

    Smytty777: No idea at all.

  18. slipper says:

    Poor Rob Schremp, btw. 16th!

    If he’s ever going to reach that 600 goal plateau he’s going to have to play into his seventies.

  19. Ducey says:

    No love for Ryan Stone?

    He seems to be on the bubble and likely has moved ahead of Schremp on the depth chart- in part because of Robbie being Robbie and in part due to the change in philosophy.

  20. speeds says:

    doritogrande:

    And if it’s a more off the board pick like Kassian instead of Kulikov?

  21. doritogrande says:

    any guesses on who the Falcons might target as veteran AHLers to avoid the debacle that was the 08-09 season again?.

    It’s by no means who the Falcons are targetting, but more of who they should be targetting for me.

    They need a 1-line C capable of playing tough minutes alongside of Reddox/Potulny and Jacques. This could be as simple as a Gilbert Brule coming out party, or we go outside the organization for a solution. Bottom line is this guy has to lead our team in scoring if we’re to be successful. I’m looking for a name with a proven AHL track record like Keith Aucoin (Hershey) or St. Pierre (Providence).

    They also need an AHL defender to work with the green bodies of Chorney, Plante and Motin. Maybe some offensive ability as well as being a shut-down type. A brief look at the stats sheet makes me crings. Danny fucking Syvret was the second best defenseman in the league in this regard. Ouch. From their times in Manitoba I liked the play of a couple guys who fit this bill. Danny Groulx and Brett Skinner are both seasoned hands and would be a welcome addition. I didn’t notice the name Joel Kwiatkowski near the top of the stats sheets, but that’d be another guy I’d target based on past track record.

    Also, we need a 3rd-line, yell at the troops when they’re getting lazy, grizzled, old, Mike Keane type captain. Someone to pair up with Milan Kytnar and Colin McDonald on a shut-down line. I don’t know who in the hell we get for this, but it better be someone.

    Also, keep in mind that the AHL limits the amount of “veterans” a team can ice for a game to five such players who have, I believe, over 250 professional games played. For years, my Moose had a hell of a time going around this, often having to sit down two veterans in the pressbox each game.

    @ Willis: I’ve heard the pros of Ellis, but I see the major downside of his stature. He might play NHL hockey one day, but he’s got to overcome the undersized hurdles that MAB and Syvret have to handle. Some compare him to Rafalski. I point them to Rafalski’s career path. The one that went through Europe as an undrafted free agent.

    If he makes the NHL, I don’t see it being with the team that drafted him. That’s why I trade for him in 2012 for another failed first rounder (How long til Rob Schremp’s UFA???) once he’s worn out his welcome “developing” with, for example, Columbus.

    Finally, to speeds, if we go off the board at #10 with Kassian, he goes below Ryan O’Marra in my books, because that’s what he is. He’s not Milan Lucic, Guys like Milan Lucic are born in the smash-mouth hockey of the Dub, where they learn to play hockey as well as hit anything that moves. I have no reason to believe, or any concrete evidence to support that Zack Kassian becomes a 2nd-line NHL player.

  22. Jonathan Willis says:

    D.G.: Speaking of pint-sized defenders and developing with Columbus, Kris Russell just had a pretty decent season.

    Ellis is the first defenseman to lead the OHL in assists at 17. That means a lot.

  23. speeds says:

    I’m not meaning to suggest there’s no chance Kassian could work out – certainly he could.

    Only that I think there are better bets, at this point in time, and those better bets should be taken at 10 OV ahead of Kassian.

    I don’t really like ragging on him, because it’s not his fault he’s the one of the most likely possibilities of the feared “draft for need” that most around here hate, especially in the first round. In fact in some ways I quite like him as a prospect – I just don’t like selecting him at 10 OV.

  24. HBomb says:

    Theoretical idea a buddy and I tossed around this weekend:

    The 10th overall to Florida with Dustin Penner for the rights to Bouwmeester and the 14th overall.

    The Oilers like Kassian, from what I’ve read and heard in more than one place. Taking him at 14th doesn’t seem like the stretch it would be to take him at 10th.

    You move off Penner’s salary, get first crack at signing J-Bo, and once you do, then you can seem what a package of Cogliano plus Souray could land you on the trade market in terms of a big LW. Hello Alex Frolov? Paging Simon Gagne?

    You get the idea.

  25. Gerta Rauss says:

    “The 10th overall to Florida with Dustin Penner for the rights to Bouwmeester and the 14th overall.”

    I like this.

    There is a lot there to like from Florida’s standpoint as well.

    I like this a lot.

    When is draft day again?
    Jesus,I can’t wait ’til the 26th.

  26. PDO says:

    I don’t want the Oilers to be drafting 10th OV unless someone is unexpectedly falling – you know, the type of thing that seems to happen for LA every year.

    If the Swede with all the different names never in the same order drops to 10, we’re golden. Same with Cowen.

    Neither option seems likely, and as far as I can tell, there’s a huge group of kids from 8-14 or so with nothing to really choose from.

    I’d take Schroeder out of that group though, especially since he rocked the combine.

  27. dstaples says:

    Petry was always the longest of shots, though I did like it that his dad was a pro ballplayer, and a good one.

    Thanks for the update on the kids, and let’s hope the Oilers don’t reach for a tough forward out of need, when that need is best met by signing a UFA, this year’s version of GlenX perhaps.

    On draft day if we hear that the Oilers draft a big forward out of present need, if that comes out of the GM’s mouth, it will be a very bad sign.

  28. jon k says:

    I think there’s probably not enough concern over Nash’s lack of progress season over season. If we can criticize Eberle for not showing enough, which I think is fair, then Nash definitely needs to face some flak. A 3 point difference between seasons is essentially within the range of chance.

    He’s playing on one of the best teams in college hockey, I think it’s reasonable to expect more of him.

    The opposite could be true of Petry. His team lost 6 top veterans between this season and the one prior by my count and is one of the worst in college hockey. He’s playing 30+ minutes some nights on a team where the highest scoring forward had 24 points in nearly 40 games. He’s likely the best prospect in the system on defence after Peckham when considering that Plante and Chorney are not very complete players.

    Other than that I like the list. Good to see Hartikainen and Peckham get the respect they deserve. It’s unfortunate but not surprising to see Trukhno fall off a cliff.

  29. jon k says:

    Lastly, it’s probably important to note that Vande Velde will be 22 next season. A lack of dominance at the college level thus far and looking forward to next season probably suggests an upside limited to third line checking ability.

    Horcoff was an elite NCAA player by 21 and Abdelkader is in the NHL and is only two weeks apart in age from Vande Velde.

  30. Gerta Rauss says:

    “there’s a huge group of kids from 8-14 or so with nothing to really choose from”

    And that’s it for me…trade up,trade down,trade sideways if you have to…after the top 7 it’s a bit of a crapshoot anyway-target your 1 or 2 guys and if you can move down and grab another asset using the 10th overall you’ve done well.

  31. Lowetide says:

    Ducey: Ryan Stone was an oversight. I’ll update the list later today to slot him in. Thanks for this!

  32. Coach pb9617 says:

    I’d be interested in seeing your list, though.

    My top 10The entire top 20, but I have no Seal Value for the second ten:

    1. Theo Peckham
    2. Riley Nash
    3. Teemu Hartikainen
    4. Jordan Eberle
    5. Cody Wild
    6. Chris Vande Velde
    7. Taylor Chorney
    8. Milan Kytnar
    9. Jeff Petry
    10. Tyler Spurgeon
    11. Alexandre Plante
    12. Linus Omark
    13. Devan Dubnyk
    14. Phillipe Cornet
    15. Josef Hrabal
    16. Ryan Stone
    17. Rob Schremp
    18. Johan Motin
    19. Slava Trukhno
    20. Sebastien Bisaillon

  33. Bruce says:

    The 10th overall to Florida with Dustin Penner for the rights to Bouwmeester and the 14th overall.HBomb: Now that MacT is gone there is no urgent reason to get rid of Penner, and to dump our only top six forward who has any kind of size would be a mistake IMO.

    For a guy who had a season so terrible he got pressboxed several times, bounced around from the first line to the fourth and to all three forward positions, Penner posted some pretty eye-popping results in 2008-09. Among all Oiler forwards with 20+ GP, he was:

    1st in 5v5 GF ON/60 (+2.96)
    1st in 5v5 GA ON/60 (-2.10)
    1st in 5v5 +-/60 (+0.86)
    1st in raw +- (+7, tied with Horcoff)
    1st in 5v4 GF ON/60
    1st in game-winning goals
    1st in Shots +- (+37)
    1st in Fenwick +- (+70)
    1st in Corsi +- (+93)
    1st in PDO # (1.027)
    .

    Holy crap, imagine what the guy could do if he wasn’t busy killing his coach all year?

  34. Coach pb9617 says:

    Holy crap, imagine what the guy could do if he wasn’t busy killing his coach all year?

    Cue Tyler on the Zonestart…

  35. Traktor says:

    “I think Ellis is special”

    He is at the junior level, playing on a stacked team.

    How he will do when Ryan Kesler is gunning him down on a forecheck is another story.

    “1st in 5v5 GF ON/60 (+2.96)
    1st in 5v5 GA ON/60 (-2.10)
    1st in 5v5 +-/60 (+0.86)
    1st in raw +- (+7, tied with Horcoff)
    1st in 5v4 GF ON/60
    1st in game-winning goals
    1st in Shots +- (+37)
    1st in Fenwick +- (+70)
    1st in Corsi +- (+93)
    1st in PDO # (1.027).

    Holy crap, imagine what the guy could do if he wasn’t busy killing his coach all year?”

    Those numbers are crazy. Even crazier is how much hate Penner gets around the globe. Even crazier than that is some people around here actually wanted to bring MacT back after his self-inflicted wounds cost us a playoff spot.

  36. HBomb says:

    Traktor and Bruce: Just to let you guys know, I am pro-Penner. I’d be happy if he stuck around because Horpensky is a capable first line (actually, more than capable if you go off the data on Vic’s site).

    But if they want to add some salary at forward in terms of a high-end LW, he’s going to have to go simply due to the (cap) numbers game. One of Souray/Visnovsky might have to go as well (especially if J-Bo ends up landing here).

    Moreau and Staios getting dumped for picks, if possible, is an absolute must at this point from a cap management standpoint. It’s such a no-brainer in my mind that I don’t even mention it when discussing what this team has to do between now and July 15th or thereabouts.

  37. Bruce says:

    Cue Tyler on the Zonestart…Coach: Yeah, I know about that, but do you think Penner taking all of 39 more faceoffs (+1 every two games) in the O zone than the D explains all of the above? I sure don’t.

    Penner’s ZoneStart numbers were similar to Gagner, Nilsson, Cogliano, Cole … I don’t see those guys anywhere close to leading the team in any category, let alone a lengthy list of positive outcomes like the above.

    Note: I am not claiming Penner is the best forward on the team. ZoneStart and ZoneShift — when combined with positive results in goal differential and shots +- data — clearly make the case for Shawn Horcoff.

  38. Traktor says:

    I still can’t figure out how to work Vic’s site even with downloading the scripts and following the instructions

    Can someone tell me how many offensive vs defensive draws Horcoff took?

    The last time I looked Horcoff only took 1 more defensive draw per game but I probably read it wrong considering most imply that Horc’s defensive responsibility meant he had no chance at producing offense – even if he had more PP time than Crosby, Getzlaf, Heatley ect..

  39. HBomb says:

    The last time I looked Horcoff only took 1 more defensive draw per game but I probably read it wrong considering most imply that Horc’s defensive responsibility meant he had no chance at producing offense – even if he had more PP time than Crosby, Getzlaf, Heatley ect..More PP time than Heatley, Getzlaf and Crosby? Care to show where that’s coming from Traktor? Because that’s the first time I’ve heard or seen that presented anywhere. Not saying it’s untrue, but I’m quite surprised if it is.

    Now, when you look at the incremental extra minutes that Horcoff was getting (i.e. extra assignments above what we could consider his “normal” workload if this team had more than one center who shaves more than once a week), they were not in offensive situations – the guy was getting thrown out for defensive zone draws and coming off the ice as soon as the puck was headed in the right direction.

    Interpretation: Horcoff’s point production wasn’t about to increase if he was picking up a few extra minutes a game because he was getting “extra minutes” in this fashion. In fact, it hurts him in the points/60 department (more minutes where he’s playing in the area of the ice that few points-for come from, and down goes his scoring rate). The simplistic argument that some present that “Horcoff should have produced more offense because he got more minutes than almost any other forward in the league” holds no water with me whatsoever. Looking at his scoring rates when playing with his normal line-mates would be a lot more relevant – I’d be willing to be almost anything there’s a fairly sharp rise in his scoring rate when compared versus his “overall” number for this past season (i.e. the one which includes his “extra assignments”).

    No one’s saying he didn’t get a chance to produce offense this season – he got that opporunity in what we could consider his “normal” minutes, and didn’t meet the lofty standard he set for himself prior to the injury in 07-08.

    However, to say that the extra minutes he was given translate to extra offensive opportunities is, in a word, incorrect.

  40. Traktor says:

    “Care to show where that’s coming from Traktor?”

    My bad. I clicked on the wrong link and thought I was looking at total PP time but it was actually total combined minutes.

    “the guy was getting thrown out for defensive zone draws and coming off the ice as soon as the puck was headed in the right direction.”

    Correct me if I’m wrong but didn’t he only average 1 extra dzone draw per game?

  41. Coach pb9617 says:

    Coach: Yeah, I know about that, but do you think Penner taking all of 39 more faceoffs (+1 every two games) in the O zone than the D explains all of the above? I sure don’t.

    At this point, I’m pretty sure the entire free world knows about my feelings on Penner. I’ll email Kim Jong Il to let him know as well.

    Can someone tell me how many offensive vs defensive draws Horcoff took?

    Horcoff:

    466 Defensive Draws
    434 Neutral Draws
    310 Offensive Draws

    156 more defensive zone starts than offensive.

  42. Traktor says:

    Thanks coach.

    So Horcoff averaged 5.85 dzone draws a game.

    I thought it would be much higher to be honest. Maybe I overestimated the work that a defensive specialist has to do.

    So given that Horcoff averaged 27.6 seconds per shift and he averaged 5.85 ownzone draws a game can we say that Horcoff only averaged around 2.6 minutes per game of dead money ice time?

    That doesn’t seem like the handicap that’s been suggested.

  43. Coach pb9617 says:

    Defensive specialist Mike Fisher:

    275 Defensive Draws
    375 Neutral Draws
    246 Offensive Draws

    29 more defensive zone starts

  44. Traktor says:

    So when we look at gravy minutes (opposing zone) and dead money minutes (own zone) Horcoff only plays a net – 0.84 minutes a game.

    My math must be wrong.

  45. Coach pb9617 says:

    Jay McClement from St. Louis was well beyond Horcoff, but he’s one of the few:

    621 Defensive Draws
    432 Neutral Draws
    209 Offensive Draws
    412 more defensive starts than offense.

    He played the toughest comp and also got outscored by .3G/20 and scored 26 points.

    Martin Hanzal had a zonestart diff of 142 and played the tough comp and was outscored by .1G/20, but again, and scored 31 points.

  46. Bruce says:

    I still can’t figure out how to work Vic’s site even with downloading the scripts and following the instructions.

    This for faceoff locations:
    http://timeonice.com/teamfaceoffs.php?team=EDM&first=20001&last=21230.

    This for faceoff location end of shift: http://timeonice.com/teamxfaceoffs.php?team=EDM&first=20001&last=21230 .

    It takes quite a little while to load (apparently each game gets added in incrementally and there’s now a full season’s worth), at least two or three minutes on my machine, and for much of that time it appears to be a dead link. Be patient, and the table will appear.

    Correct me if I’m wrong but didn’t he only average 1 extra dzone draw per game?

    2 more, which is significant when you figure an average of 6 D zone draws to just 4 O zone draws (5v5) per game. That’s a 60/40 split which should skew expectations of results toward the negative. That Horc was able to essentially break even in ShiftEnd faceoffs and post positive numbers in all shots and goals differentials speak to a player who thrived on heavy lifting, at least at even strength.

  47. DBO says:

    not on topic, but Krejci? from Boston signed a 3 year deal with Boston for $3.75 mill cap hit. Nice deal for an almost point a game two way young player who will get better. Can’t expect kessel to sign for anything more then $4 mill.

  48. speeds says:

    DBO:

    Kessel can probably get more if he wants via an offer sheet, as could have Krejci*.

    There’s no reason Kessel has to take less money just because Krejci did.

    * – I’m speculating that both guys can get more via an offer sheet, because it’s obviously an unknown, but I don’t think it’s an unreasonable bit of speculation.

  49. Coach pb9617 says:

    That Horc was able to essentially break even in ShiftEnd faceoffs and post positive numbers in all shots and goals differentials speak to a player who

    …is fucking awesome.

    Horcoff’s peers over the last two seasons, tough minutes outscoring centers in goal differential per 15 minutes of ES order, desc. The number after the name is this year’s zonestart.

    .55 Pavel Datsyuk -12
    .27 Evgeni Malkin -173
    .22 Stephen Weiss 73
    .20 Craig Conroy -25
    .16 Mike Richards
    .11 Shawn Horcoff 156
    .09 Eric Staal -24
    .08 Derek Roy -7

    Only Weiss and Horcoff have to go uphill.

    Something is screwy with Richards’ data – it has him taking 500 more faceoffs than he did, so he’s not included.

  50. PunjabiOil says:

    The bigger news today is that Juve is playing in Edmonton on August 8.

  51. Traktor says:

    “2 more, which is significant when you figure an average of 6 D zone draws to just 4 O zone draws (5v5) per game. That’s a 60/40 split which should skew expectations of results toward the negative.”

    How significant is it though?

    The majority of the game is played on the fly.

    A 6/4 split doesn’t even equal a full minute per game in the wrong end.

  52. uni says:

    How significant is it though?

    The majority of the game is played on the fly.

    A 6/4 split doesn't even equal a full minute per game in the wrong end.

    It's incredibly significant if you have to jump off the ice whenever the puck starts moving in the right direction.

  53. Hawerchuk says:

    LT – I played pickup with Hans Benson this morning…Where is he on your list?

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