Summer Heating Up

If you read between the lines, it’s looking more and more like the Edmonton Oilers may indeed be a strong player in the Dany Heatley sweepstakes. We talked about this over a week ago when things went public. We quoted Jason Gregor from his blog:

  • I’ve been told that Daryl Katz is prepared to do whatever it takes to try and land Heatley. He has given Steve Tambellini the green light to put together a package that will ensure Bryan Murray doesn’t overlook them.

We also discussed Jim Matheson’s comments in the EJ on Thursday:

  • If Ottawa Senators general manager Bryan Murray wants to hear offers for Dany Heatley at the draft, the Oilers have a top-three defenceman (Tom Gilbert) and a top-six forward (O’Sullivan) to give up. Both players are younger than Heatley. Sources say the Oilers are very leery of surrendering the speedy Andrew Cogliano in any Heatley trade scenario.

Among the teams mentioned as possible trading partners, the Oilers, Los Angeles and Vancouver seem to be the front-runners (along with the NY Rangers according to a report today). Having said that, Los Angeles doesn’t appear to be interested. This report suggests Los Angeles may not be as much in the picture as once thought:

  • The Los Angeles Kings don’t appear to be all that interested in trading for disgruntled Ottawa Senators winger Dany Heatley. At the team’s general manager’s breakfast on Saturday, assistant general manager Ron Hextall told fans Heatley’s history is a concern. Hextall said the fact that Heatley has twice requested to be traded -first from Atlanta in 2005 after he was the driver in a car crash which killed teammate Dan Snyder, and again from Ottawa this off-season – is a concern. Hextall said the Kings are also worried that Heatley had problems with the last two Senators’ coaches, Craig Hartsburg and Cory Clouston, but added the Kings are in need of a high-scoring left winger.

Vancouver is still in the Sedins race, the Rangers already have 4 players making 6.5M or more and most of the other teams who would like Heatley either can’t afford him or don’t have the needed return. It looks like Edmonton has a real shot at Heatley. Matheson’s thoughts on the price (Gilbert & O’Sullivan) seems plenty stiff and anything more than that would be terrifying. You could make a very good case that those two players represent an overpay, but snipers don’t grow on trees and that’s for sure.

I think there’s a good chance Dany Heatley is an Oiler by this time next week. The cost will be steep and it’s a big test for Steve Tambellini. There are reports that the Oilers draft pick at #10 is also in play. Here’s hoping he has the gumption to walk away if the price is too high.

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70 Responses to "Summer Heating Up"

  1. Jon says:

    Just throwing this out for conversations sake.

    Senators depth chart:

    phillips Volchenkov
    Kuba Smith
    Campoli Lee
    Picard Schubert

    It seems to me that the Senators have a solid and deep set of d-men heading into next year and that one of their main problems is forward depth.

    __________ Spezza Alfredson

    Foligno Fisher Shannon

    Ruutu Kelly Donovan

    Bass Winchester _________

    My new proposal:

    Penner, O'sully, and 2010 1st for Heatley

    We then replace sully with Kotalik

    Heatley Horc Hemmer
    Cogs Gag Kotalik
    Moreau Maholtra Pisani
    Jaques Brodz Storts

    Poo Smac

    Now you can keep the same d as last year and improve upfront. Win Win

  2. Coach pb9617 says:

    I, for one, do not welcome our new drunken sailor overlords.

  3. bookie says:

    Hmmm, this one is tough… Gilbert+O'Sullivan seems like a pretty reasonable price to pay IF Heatley lights it up here. If he is a headcase though, not so good.

    I am glad to hear that the Oil are reluctant to trade someone like Cogliano.

    This is really a tough call, if Heatley meshes well with Hemsky, it would be genius. If he is Erik Cole Redux, then we would be doomed.

    I hope that Tambillini has been eating his brain foods as of late cause this could be make or break for this team.

  4. Lowetide says:

    Also in the mix is news this morning (well it's out there somewhere, with no direct quote that I can find) that Hossa and the Red Wings may not be a match.

  5. Baroque says:

    Hossa and Detroit is hardly a surprise, though. They just don't have the cap space to afford him, which was why he was on a one-year deal in the first place.

    A deep team just can't keep everyone, no matter how much they might want to.

  6. Coach pb9617 says:

    This is really a tough call, if Heatley meshes well with Hemsky, it would be genius. If he is Erik Cole Redux, then we would be doomed.

    Not really doomed per se, they would have to trade Hemsky at that point because he's still cheap.

  7. Deano says:

    Well, it can be argued that POS and Gilbert together (or Penner and POS together – jon) are as overpaid as Heatley.

    It may all 'net' out.

    I wasn't a big fan of the Hossa orgasmafest last year, but I gotta say I'd pick him 8 times out of 10 over Heatley.

    If the Heatley thing goes into July, we are unlikely to be significant players in the JayBo tourney. (unlike Lowe, maybe Tambo can do two things at once.)

  8. Coach pb9617 says:

    Also in the mix is news this morning (well it's out there somewhere, with no direct quote that I can find) that Hossa and the Red Wings may not be a match.

    Am I wrong that I'd still want Gaborik over Hossa?

  9. Deano says:

    I agree, when Gaborik is in the lineup, he does more to help his team win. When he's out….

    His camp says they have his health issues fixed. If not, will he give the money back?

    Too difficult to factor in half a superstar. Pass – for now.

  10. PunjabiOil says:

    In other non-related news, from Jim Matheson today:

    "Meanwhile, it was wrong of the Oilers to fire Pete Peeters as their goaltenders coach. If they're looking for a replacement, Ron Tugnutt, who's working for Hockey Canada, might be somebody to look at."

    What WAS so special about Peeters? If anything, it was wrong to fire Huddy.

  11. bookie says:

    All I can say is this team is looking pretty freaking fantastic for next year.

    Adding Baumeister, Jagr, Hossa, Heatley, and the Sedins should really make us killer on the Power Play.

    I still don't know that we can do it without Reasoner though…

  12. Coach pb9617 says:

    Oilers-related item in the Buffalo News

    "The first move I make is getting help – for me. The Sabres' scouting staff has been stripped in recent years, leaving the hockey department with fewer hockey minds. I want an assistant GM, an intelligent scout who will challenge me before I make the final call.

    Rick Dudley would have been perfect, but he's headed for Atlanta. Les Jackson is a sound personnel man who was fired in Dallas after being forced to share the GM job with Brett Hull. Mark Howe is the top pro scout in Detroit. Terry Martin is working in Colorado but still lives in Buffalo after inexplicably getting whacked by the Sabres. Edmonton's Mike Abbamont isn't well known but he's widely respected for his encyclopedic knowledge of the NHL and AHL."

    Guy has been on the Oilers staff for three+ years and this is the first I can recall his name being mentioned.

  13. Jon says:

    Coach here is my over/under on Gaborik. Also, this is only IF he would sign here…and that is a gigantic if.

    Con's/ injury prone, have to overpay to sign him, his attitude has not led me to believe he is a team player, he is a natural RW so we still don't have a finisher for Hemsky.

    Pro's/ can flat out skate, an elite player, his value is probably at an all time low due to the knocks on him

    Gaborik for under 4.5 million is a steal

    Gaborik for over 5.5 million and I pass on the overpay, especially with his health issues

    5 mill and I would be okay with it.

  14. gmc79 says:

    My order of preference [TOP 6 FWDS]

    1.GABORIK [I know he's injury prone]

    2.HEATLEY [ Not at that price]

    3.HOSSA [Not at 9 mil]

    The player I would break the bank for is KOVY [EXCEPT FOR HEMSKY]

  15. Coach pb9617 says:

    Con's/ injury prone, have to overpay to sign him, his attitude has not led me to believe he is a team player, he is a natural RW so we still don't have a finisher for Hemsky.

    *sigh* Penner, Horc and Hemmer are a GAG line. Playing the comp they do, that's doing damn well.

    O'Sullivan – Gagner – Gaborik would murder seconds.

  16. TK10 says:

    Deano is right. Tambo (and the brain trust) have to be able to have more than one iron in the fire. The next 2-3 weeks are crucial for the future. What happens now will be more important than all the fuzzy number crunching in January. The team needs to be balanced. God is in the details.

  17. Coach pb9617 says:

    Deano is right. Tambo (and the brain trust) have to be able to have more than one iron in the fire.

    Given Captain Ahab's last summer, don't bet on it.

  18. Jon says:

    At what price coach? would you go over 6 million? Because that is what he is going to be commanding.

    You could do a longer term to get the cap hit down…but aren't you a little worried about the injuries and his motivation.

    I think he is an elite player but I also think

    A) no way he signs in edmonton without an overpay

    B) with his history he is not worth an overpay

    so back to my original question coach, what price would you be willing to pay.

  19. PunjabiOil says:

    I like Visnovsky, but I wonder if Ottawa would be interested in him over Gilbert.

    Giving up Gilbert would be tough. He has a very reasonable contract, with a strong potential to overperform it, is locked up for the prime of his career, and is a right-handed shot. I'm not comfortable having Visnovsky and Souray being the Oilers top 2 defencemen over the long run – it's inevitable their skill level through passage of time (i.e. age).

    It'd be nice that in the event Gilbert is traded in persuit of Heatley, the Oilers sign Jay-Bo and ship one of Souray/Visnovsky out for picks/prospects.

    Alternatively, the Oilers should just sign Hossa at ~7.25M a year for say 6-7 years. Trade one of Visnovsky/Souray and acquire Jay-Bo in a 17 year contract (taking full advantage of the cap loop hole) at ~5.85M

  20. knighttown says:

    A lot of stuff being said about Heatley. He had his worst year as a pro but to my mind, with a vet, you've got to look at the body of work. Assuming Ovechkin is the undisputed best LW on the planet, let's look at the next 3 who have established track records to see how they compare.

    Dany Heatley vs. Ilya Kovalchuck vs. Rick Nash

    Size

    Heatley- 6'4", 221 lbs
    Nash- 6'4", 218 lbs
    Kovalchuck- 6'1" 230 lbs

    They're all massive. Nash probably hits the most but all are more from the Thornton tree of big men who use their bodies to shield the puck.

    Durability

    Kovie- 94.9% of GP and 2 of 7 seasons had 82GP

    Nash- 89.6% of GP and 0 of 6 seasons had 82GP

    Heatley- 88.3% of GP and 4 of 7 season played all 82 games.

    They are all extremely durable. Other than the wasted season from his eye injury/crash Heater has missed 16 games in his entire career.

    Goals Scoring

    Kovalchuck- .545 G/G
    Heatley- .513 G/G
    Nash- .440 G/G

    A clear 1,2,3 in this category.

    Points

    Heatley- 1.07 P/G
    Kovie- 1.02 P/G
    Nash- .80 P/G

    Nash’s relatively poor assist totals are noticeable here.

    Playoffs

    Heatley- 1.03 P/G
    Kovie and Nash- n/a

    The others aren’t proven but in spite of the memory of the Ducks debacle, Heatley’s a proven playoff scorer.

    Real +/-

    Heatley- +47
    Nash- -52
    Kovie- -85

    Nash and Kovie have always played on bad teams but remember, Heatley has played on bad teams 4 years of 7. This is a huge, huge difference.

    Qualcomp (3 years)

    All play the toughs and average +.04 over the past 3 seasons.

    Qualteam (3 years)

    Kovie- -.01
    Nash- +.06
    Heatley- +.20

    This is also a massive difference. Heatley has played with much better teammates than either of the other guys, especially in those 100 point years.

    CORSI (2 years)

    Nash- +7.4
    Heatley- +2.5
    Kovalchuck- -8.4

    Pretty clear gaps from 1-2-3 but I’d expect that Heatley and Kovie are similar CORSI players when you consider the difference in QT. Nash is well clear.

    GF/60 (3 years)

    Heatley- 3.8
    Kovie- 3.2
    Nash- 2.6

    Again, a clear 1-2-3, but that 3.8 number is truly elite. For instance, Malkin and Ovechkin were 3.7 this year and Crosby 3.6.

    GA/60 (3 years)
    Nash- 2.4
    Heatley- 2.7
    Kovie- 3.3

    Another clear 1-2-3. Hitchcock’s message is getting through to Nash and as a result he’s pretty low event for an elite.

    BTN +/- yearly average (3 years)

    Heatley- his 1.1 differential would result in +22 EV goals/year
    Nash- his .2 differential would result in +4 EV goals/year
    Kovalchuck – his -.1 differential would resuly in -2 EV goals/year

    Fans and media are often guilty of focusing on the present a little too much. A good example was all the talk about Cam Ward, Chris Osgood and Marc Andre Fleury playing net for Team Canada at the Olympics. Dany Heatley is a huge, durable goal scorer. He is in the equation for 2nd best LW of his generation. He is signed to an expensive but understandable long term contract and would like to play in Edmonton. If the cost is Penner and POS, do it yesterday. If its Gilbert/Penner do it today and spend the Cap savings on Scuderi. If its Gilbert/POS then we’re getting close to fair and I’d still make the trade based on team needs as both Tom and Patrick have replaceable skill sets.

  21. Jonathan Willis says:

    Matty this morning says that the Oilers won't move a defenseman to bring in Bouwmeester. Does that mean they won't do it to bring in Heatley?

  22. Coach pb9617 says:

    At what price coach? would you go over 6 million? Because that is what he is going to be commanding.

    I can't see him getting that much, given that Havlat and Hossa are also available.

  23. Coach pb9617 says:

    Matty this morning says that the Oilers won't move a defenseman to bring in Bouwmeester. Does that mean they won't do it to bring in Heatley?

    I noticed that too. If they're willing to move Gilbert for Heatley, but not for Bouwmeester – we're back to unbalanced again.

    Second verse, same as the first!

  24. raventalon40 says:

    If we can get away from moving the #10 pick for Heatley we could probably still move up in the draft.

  25. raventalon40 says:

    I noticed that too. If they're willing to move Gilbert for Heatley, but not for Bouwmeester – we're back to unbalanced again.

    Firstly, Florida just picked up Reinprecht so they wouldn't be needing a 2nd line center anymore. There isn't much we could offer Florida that would make sense so it would only be logical to wait for J-Bo to hit open markets. Plus, even if the Oilers were successful at signing J-Bo they would still have too much salary to sign a goalie after (if successful) acquiring Heatley.

  26. Ben says:

    If we had a good indication that he'd re-sign at a likeable number, how about Souray for Bouwmeester straight up before July 1? How much value does Souray, at his age with his contract and injury concerns, really have?

  27. Travis Dakin says:

    Ben-
    Souray has a no movement clause and his kids live in California.

  28. Coach pb9617 says:

    Firstly, Florida just picked up Reinprecht so they wouldn't be needing a 2nd line center anymore. There isn't much we could offer Florida that would make sense so it would only be logical to wait for J-Bo to hit open markets. Plus, even if the Oilers were successful at signing J-Bo they would still have too much salary to sign a goalie after (if successful) acquiring Heatley.

    I'm reading that as more than just trading for his rights, I'm thinking more about making room.

  29. uni says:

    What WAS so special about Peeters? If anything, it was wrong to fire Huddy.

    I had a lot of ire about Huddy as well, but Matheson came straight out in an interview and said that Huddy was likely going to leave to follow MacT where ever he landed. If this is the case, and it sounds likely, then I can't fault Tambellini for not keeping him.

    As for Heatly, as much as he brings to the table, I don't think the team can handle his salary, and for what he brings the depth chart is really going to hurt.

    Even if he's injury prone I'd want Gaborik, if only he'd sign here and if he's going to agree to a performance based clause like Shanahan did a bit back, has to play 20 games for X, 45 games for Y, and 70 games for Z…that's fair if he's really had his groin rebuilt. I doubt Gabby signs here, and at those conditions, but that's best case scenario.

    For Heatley's price tag, I'd rather they clear out some deadweight cap wise one the overpays, then spend hte money on building up some NHL veteran depth and some players with potential cheap. And no, I don't think Penner is a real 4 million guy. Next summer they'd be a much better position to deal and sign valuable free agents, and the floaters would have been sussed out and moved. Also if the cap falls further as is believed…then the Oilers can clean up with all their cap room freedom.

  30. jon k says:

    The issue seems to be that making a move for Heatley is a bit of a jigsaw puzzle as it pertains to our backend.

    Souray is probably the player Ottawa would desire most for their backend as he's physical, big, and has the shot from the point and PP presence they would like. Unfortunately his NMC means he likely wouldn't go there.

    That leaves Gilbert or Visnovsky.

    Gilbert is probably more desirable due to cost, age, and contract. Unfortunately, those are the reasons why we should be wary to move him over Visnovsky. It's easy to forget, but Visnovsky's cap hit is a whopping 5.6 million until the 2012/2013 season, when he will be 36.

    It's a tough situation. Does acquiring Heatley justify ruining our defense core? If we send Gilbert out for him we're stuck with two aging, injury-prone offensive defensemen in our top 4. Our top 4 becomes somewhat suspect as Staios or Smid will sneak into it. The problem is compounded if Visnovsky or Souray are injured, and suddenly our defense is a point of weakness rather than a strength.

    If I'm Tambellini I'm pushing hard to move Visnovsky, and if they're not biting and Gilbert is going away the rest of the value of the package should be adjusted accordingly.

    Personally I hope we gamble on Gaborik. I think he would thrive under a more trusting coach such as Quinn and the hopeless optimist in me thinks the corrective surgery has a chance to help his injury woes.

  31. godot10 says:

    I'd rather get Hossa to play with Gagner.

    Penner, Horcoff, Hemsky
    O'Sullivan, Gagner, Hossa

  32. oilerdago says:

    Let's say we do the deal for Heatley and it's O'Sullivan and Gilbert headed out.

    What happens next season when Gags and Cogs come off their entry deals? Who has to be moved so we can afford the guys who are the future of the team other than Pisani – who BTW is not bad as a 3rd liner but is overpaid?

    Is someone thinking about this when they go out and get Heatley too?

  33. PDO says:

    Penner + Gilbert + Captain America for one Mr. Heatley.

    Rightly or wrongly, you're going to be seeing it, and we'll move from there.

  34. NBOIlerFan says:

    With both Gaborik and Hossa available, the ONLY way they should deal for Heatley is if Penner is going the other way. Do a Penner/O'Sully deal (with a small piece added if needed, but not the 10th).

    The if at all possible to move Souray somewhere he'll agree to for salary dump to try to sign JayBo.

    Then fill out the roster with cheap useful UFA vets and/pr current cheap fringe players.

  35. PDO says:

    Oh, and just say no to giving Hossa a retirement deal.

  36. Traktor says:

    Did anyone catch the Clay Guida fight last night?

    Might be the most impressive display I've ever seen in my life. The guy is a modern day Rocky.

  37. PDO says:

    Did anyone catch the Clay Guida fight last night?

    Yup.

    Fantastic fight.

    Annoyed that chodhe Sanchez got the decision….

  38. Traktor says:

    Have you ever in your life seen a chin like Guida's?

    He was hit with 20 knock out blows in the first 2 minutes that left kick to the head would put most people in the hospital and Guida wasn't even fazed by it.

    Unbelievable.

    Plus he looks exactly like Stortini.

  39. PDO says:

    The only chin I can think of that I'd even put in that ballpark right now is Rashad's Evans; he took at least 4 legitimate knockout punches in a span of 5 seconds from The Dragon without flinching.

    That was some kind of display though. I was really hoping he was going to take it by split decision… can't wait for his next fight.

    Have you taken a look at the card for UFC 100?

    Mir/Lesnar, GSP/Alves, Fitch/Thiago, Henderson/Bigsping..

    Damn that's gonna be some kind of PPV.

  40. Gerta Rauss says:

    What happens next season when Gags and Cogs come off their entry deals? Who has to be moved so we can afford the guys who are the future of the team other than Pisani – who BTW is not bad as a 3rd liner but is overpaid?

    Souray's NMC is up July 1/10 and 3 of his 5 years will have been burned off the contract..we would have to hope his value is as high as it is now

    Nilsson will have 1 year left on his deal-assuming he's still around

    Penner will have burned 3 out of 5years-you'd think he'd be easier to move if it came to that

    Staios and Moreau are moved at the trade deadline,with 2 playoff runs dangled as the selling feature to the prospective buyer.

    And you hope that Pisani will sign a hometown discount,or he's moved at the deadline as well

    I'm not suggesting all of the above happens,but we've got options,provided we don't shoot ourselves in the foot in the next 10 days.

  41. Deano says:

    Gerta

    Souray's salary for the last 2 years is $4.5MM per, $900,000 less than his cap hit. This makes him valuable to those (mythical?) cap-loor teams. Its possible with the economy tanking that this may become more of a factor.

  42. Gerta Rauss says:

    And if we're doing this, I hope Katz uses his financial resources to do the deal before July 1 and $4M payment.

    The price for Heatley will go up after July 1,and the difference may be a high pick next year.

  43. hunter1909 says:

    While many on these boards try to juggle the existing team, working out cap hits plus the ramifications of a brand new retro coach, my spidey sense tells me there are blockbuster events headed toward the Oilers this summer which will equal and probably surpass Lowe's stellar moves of summer 2006.

    A single billionaire hockey fanatic owner replacing a well intentioned but tight fisted ownership group can order that kind of thing.

    The only player I would bet money on being still here at training camp beyond any shadow of doubt is Stortini. The reason? He's cheap, big, and useful to the kind of team Quinn wants to coach.

    Of course several of the current lineup will be here next season, but something tells me we're in for a few very big shocks. As in, other than huggy, not a single player on the roster is 100% guaranteed to be here on opening night next October.

  44. Lowetide says:

    hunter: You've expressed my greatest fear. The owner owns a fantasy baseball team.

  45. Coach pb9617 says:

    hunter: You've expressed my greatest fear. The owner owns a fantasy baseball team.

    And a whaling ship.

  46. uni says:

    A single billionaire hockey fanatic owner replacing a well intentioned but tight fisted ownership group can order that kind of thing.

    Yep, that's my greatest fear as well. Charles Wang anyone? You want an Ilitch type, passionate, but willing to delegate and leave hockey matters to a solid braintrust. Not mandating swings for Yashin (cost: Chara, Spezza, Muckalt) and a gorilla of a horrible contract, and then signing a goalie to a 15 year contract.

    IMO, Heatley is the new Yashin, and I hope Ottawa doesn't make the Oil the chumps they made out of the Isles.

  47. Gerta Rauss says:

    Everybody Wang Chung tonight.

    *shudder*

  48. Lowetide says:

    Before we begin mixing Kool-Aid here, the other side of it is that Tambellini is an experienced hockey manager and must understand that a big splash this summer has huge implications (Gagner, Cogs) next summer.

  49. speeds says:

    "…must understand that a big splash this summer has huge implications (Gagner, Cogs) next summer."

    Doesn't matter if those two guys aren't here, right LT!

  50. Lowetide says:

    speeds: You're KILLING ME!

  51. hunter1909 says:

    I probably would give up on NHL hockey altogether, were the Oilers to exchange one sorry situation for another, different version of a sad sack team.

    But Quinn already serves as a salve for my long ago warped view of this team, and a couple of weeks ago I was looking at the 2002 gold medal game, and saw the current Oilers GM in the stands next to Gretzky, which similarly gives me a window of trust, hope, whatever for next season.

    Although I like several of the players, I personally feel no particular loyalty to any of them. For example, I believe as things stand today, Gagner represents the future of the team; but if Tavares somehow became available it's goodbye Sam. I love Souray as a hard nosed player, but if I could trade him tonight for Bouwmeester I'd do that also, in a heartbeat.

  52. Scott says:

    uni:

    Not that I think he would ever sign it even if it was available, but….

    Gaborik can't load up his contract with the kinds of bonuses that a Shanahan or a Weight did, because he's not 35 or older at the time of signing.

    If there's a CBA guru out there, feel free to correct or farther clarify this one.

  53. R O says:

    I believe if you're coming off the previous season with significant injury, you can also bonus-load your contract. I don't exactly recall what the specific days-missed threshold has to be.

  54. knighttown says:

    "I probably would give up on NHL hockey altogether"

    Heatley is the new Yashin

    Hossa over Heatley 8 times in 10

    Gaborik over Heatley

    Obviously I'm in the minority but 1 month ago getting Heatley in a trade would have seemed too good to be true. Now we'd empty the tank for Kovie, Hossa or Gaborik but Heatleys the new Yashin? Give your heads a shake.

    Sure, he's not the guy to get it there, but there is NO ONE more dangerous from 15 feet out than Dany Heatley. Hmmm, who do we have that can carry the puck, circle the net and find a left handed shot open in the slot? This guy is the PERFECT linemate for Ales Hemsky. All those Whiff-coffs will become goals. He needs no time and with his size, no space to get off that rocket.

    40 is the bottom and he could put up 50. Seriously.

  55. Coach pb9617 says:

    40 is the bottom and he could put up 50. Seriously.

    And he paralyzes the franchise from a cap and depth perspective.

  56. doritogrande says:

    If its Gilbert/POS then we’re getting close to fair and I’d still make the trade based on team needs as both Tom and Patrick have replaceable skill sets.

    Guys, can we please come up with a new shorthand for O'Sullivan? I thought we were trading Moreau.

  57. PDO says:

    And he paralyzes the franchise from a cap and depth perspective.

    Not necessarily.

    If any of Penner, Nilsson, Staios or Moreau are going the other way, we're getting cap relief.

    Gaborik spends months at a time on the IR; and while he doesn't count against the cap while he's on the IR, you still can't plan for it.

    I'd rather have 80 games of Heatley than 40 games of Gaborik at 7.5.

    If the cost involves Cogliano or the 10th? Yeah, it's too much.

    If it's Penner, Gilbert and Schremp?

    You do it everyday of the week and twice on Sunday – and I'm a guy who likes Penner and Gilbert.

  58. Deano says:

    I thought we were trading Moreau.

    Wishful thinking : )

  59. knighttown says:

    And he paralyzes the franchise from a cap and depth perspective.

    So you're against big contracts in general then. I can't 42 players that will count over 6 million against the cap this year, plus the Sedins most likely, so 44.

    It is extremely rare to find a steal in that price range but some would be:
    -Zetterberg at 6
    -Datsyuk at 6.7
    -Lidstrom at 7.5
    -Luongo at 6.8
    -Crosby, Ovechkin and Malkin

    It is much more common to find an awful deal:
    -Redden 6.5
    -Gomez 7.4
    -Drury 7
    -Khabi 6.8
    -B. Richards 7.8
    -Briere 6.5
    -Jovo 6.5
    -Kariya 6
    -Campbell 7.1

    But you know what, there are another 30 guys that are paid well and deserve it, or at least the market says they do. Eric Staal makes over 8.2. Vanek makes 7.2. Kopitar at 6.8.

    That Heatley contract falls right smack in the middle of those 44 as far as value goes IMO.

    Kovie and Nash are both comparables and are entering their final years. Do you think they'll come cheaper than 7.5, assuming the Di Pietro loophole is closed?

  60. godot10 says:

    //Sure, he's not the guy to get it there, but there is NO ONE more dangerous from 15 feet out than Dany Heatley.//

    The spoiled frat boy won't survive long after first contact with Robyn Regehr and Willy Mitchell.

    Heatley was too scared to get within 15 feet of the net against Anaheim in the Stanley Cup finals.

    Acquiring Heatley would probably cure me of my Oilers' addiction. Heatley is a loser. And you would be bringing a bad influence for Gagner and Cogliano.

  61. spOILer says:

    From the sounds of thing, Heatley wants the WC, but not a Canadian team. Is that possible?

    DAL could offer Richards.
    SJS could offer Marleau.
    COL could do it, depending on their solution to goaltender.
    LAK & PHX don't matter, they could make the trade happen, if the other GM was motivated.

    I think the chances of Heater coming here are slim to anorexic.

    Gaborik might play where he wants. Would he take a pay cut to play one year with Malkin and Maguire's boyfriend?

    If he doesn't play for a contender? Would COL be after him if Sakic retires? TOR? VCR if the Sedins can't be signed?

    As for JBo, again it seems like he'd rather be west, but not Edmonton, and the Slick doesn't sound that interested in him in anyway.

    My prediction for JBo is DAL — they have a team that needs to win now, if Zubov is done.

    I say we head their needs off at the path and start with Lubo and whatever else it takes to get that #8. No guarantee for JBo…

    It looks like a difficult off-season for making trades, since every team is apparently striving to dump cap space.

    Sorry, it's late and I am feelin a little pessimistic.

    Our ability to pick up any free agents seems contingent on making trades. We are limited then by whatever other teams want to do.

  62. Woodguy says:

    And if we're doing this, I hope Katz uses his financial resources to do the deal before July 1 and $4M payment.

    The price for Heatley will go up after July 1,and the difference may be a high pick next year.

    Agreed.

    I wonder if Jim Matheson's repeated stating that no one is going to make a pre-July 1 offer is an intentional misdirection to lower the number of pre-July 1 bidders.

  63. Alice says:

    KT – that's a fantastic breakdown on Heatley as uber-stud LW. I'm sold on he's worth every penny of 7.5M.

    But….
    what does his current boss think of him now? Because Nobody's going to take him off your hands if he pulls the trick again – and of all the teams out there we probably have the freshest and sharpest memory of how that little debacle can go. If he's happy, it's going to turn out pretty well for someone. If it goes sour though, Murray's predicament will look like a cakewalk by comparison.

    I'd rather we keep some powder dry until deadline, see what the new bench regime can do with [most] of this crowd. But I'm afraid we're going to make a bigger splash this summer, like it or not.

  64. Dean says:

    The Brooks column that Marc linked to here speculated that Heatley was tired of playing in a fishbowl in Ottawa.

    If true, Edmonton can't be on his list.

  65. Dennis says:

    It's small picture vs big picture but how much of an actual player/asset discount does The Nutty Professor garner for Tambo if he steps up to eat that July 1st bonus?

  66. raventalon40 says:

    At this point, I don't know whether Heatley for 7.5 (or 7.0, barring bonus) or Hossa for 8+ would be a better match. I am leaning towards Heatley.

  67. Woodguy says:

    It's small picture vs big picture but how much of an actual player/asset discount does The Nutty Professor garner for Tambo if he steps up to eat that July 1st bonus?

    Not sure, but it has to be something.

    Really depends on how much the $4M means to Melnyk, and what Murray's orders are. (take the best pre-July 1 or wait??)

    My guess is that at the very least it may take our 10th pick off the table (if its even on, which it shouldn't be), and make the 3rd player the Oilers give up (after two roster players)a lesser light rather than one of our top 3 prospects.

    It might even push them to take Penner as part of the package, which capwise is great, and I'm a Penner fan.

    If he can get this done pre-July 1 for something like Penner, POS, and Schrmep/Petry/Wild then we should start building a statue of Tambo.

  68. NBOilerFan says:

    Not to mention that eating the $4mil and getting a deal done before July 1st, let's management have one piece of the puzzle in place in order to focus on the remaining pieces (i.e. resigning our RFA's and picking up UFA role players).

    Instead of having to wait out a potential deal on July 1st (or beyond) while other teams are plucking off important role players.

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