The Heat is On

There’s no guarantee that Dany Heatley is going to be an Edmonton Oiler later this month, but there are some interesting and possibly frightening items reaching the Al Gore this morning. Two different articles on the internet speak to the Oilers devotion to acquiring another big ticket and also the level of involvement Daryl Katz has in the wheeling and dealing. The first comes from Jason Gregor and includes the following:

  • I’ve been told that Daryl Katz is prepared to do whatever it takes to try and land Heatley. He has given Steve Tambellini the green light to put together a package that will ensure Bryan Murray doesn’t overlook them.

Jason goes on to say that it sounds like Katz would be willing to hide a salary in the minors. Not Horcoff or Penner, but possibly Robert Nilsson or Ethan Moreau or Steve Staios, although in the case of the latter two that would be extremely unlikely.

Jim Matheson’s article in the EJ is here. In it he explains the possible cost:

  • Murray isn’t saying anything, but he would likely have to retrieve (a) a puck-moving defenceman to help Filip Kuba, Chris Campoli and young Swede Erik Karlsson, (b) a young top-six winger with a scoring touch, and (c) a first-round draft pick, probably in the top 10.

Matty then suggests Tom Gilbert might fill column A, Cogliano or O’Sullivan could solve column B and the Oilers do own the 10th overall pick.

That seems pretty rich to me, but possibly if the Senators supplied Edmonton with another pick (they own the 39th pick, as an example) it could be evened up. I’d hope that Gilbert and Cogliano would be enough and honestly wouldn’t offer more, because despite Heatley’s obvious talents he’s a very expensive player on a club that already has a top-heavy problem ala the NY Rangers (and frankly, the current Ottawa Senators).

If you have that many players making 5+ million, then you need a bunch of very good value contracts at 1M or less in order to compete. The Oilers don’t have that, and they also don’t have a goaltender and they lack a veteran center. Better to stay the course, I’d say. Anything beyond Gilbert and Cogliano (and that is a massive amount of talent leaving town, plus one exceptional value contract and another who will cover the bet) would seem to be overkill.

I do think it’s time to start thinking about Heatley being an Oiler, though. When the owner says “make it so” then the GM has his marching orders. And that issue is for another time, but this is twice now (the other being Laraque at Body by Bennett) the owner has been very vocal (plus the Hossa episode but I’m less clear on what happened there) about player procurement.

Is this a good thing?

Success comes from ownership, goaltending, and I’ve always been thinking that you can have a fire-wagon type of hockey but your ability to play good defence has got to surface. The thread that ran through all of my success was undoubtedly ownership’s commitment to win. I’ve been quite close to some of the owners, and the Bronfmans’ passion for the game as owners in Montreal and the Ilitches’ commitment to create a winning team in Detroit contributed greatly to our success.

-Scotty Bowman

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85 Responses to "The Heat is On"

  1. CM says:

    yeah LT's Back. I hope your mother is doing well.

  2. uni says:

    Oh Jesusallahbuddha help us!

    I really hate this idea to ship out Gilbert and Cogliano, two very good young players who have tonnes of room for growth and every indication that they will get better.

    Heatley while an elite trigger man isn't worth the 7.5 million especially on a team already top heavy. I'm also not sure that his talent alone is greater than the combined talent/value of Cogliano and Gilbert right now, much less a year from now when both will likely be much improved.

    Tossing in the 10th overall pick would drive me towards Blue Jackets fandom, or if I can't get the games towards even Leaf fandom at this point.

    I'm all for an owner with deep pockets, passion for the game, and will to win. However, from the Laraque and now Heatley buzz, who here is starting to believe that Katz is less Ilitch and more Wang?

    The last thing I wanted besides a Teacher's Pension Plan type owner was a Charles Wang type owner. I need to go drink a beer now and convince myself that this isn't real.

  3. uni says:

    Also don't misunderstand what I mean regarding Heatley, he's one dimensional but it's a heck of a dimension and he's an elite trigger man for sure. I just mean that at 7.5 million you don't ship out good young up and coming talent for him. Not only do we lose two good players with a chance to cover/exceed contract with high value, we also lose cap space. The net result is a few more goals on the top line but at the cost of huge damage to the team depth and future.

    Just think Tampa Bay and Ottawa here if you want examples of what I mean.

    And for those of you who are going to mention Detroit with 6-7 million each tied up in Zetterberg, Datsyuk, Franzen, Hossa, and Lidstrom, keep in mind that Heatley isn't a complete player while any of those guys can drive the bus all by themselves (but don't have to) and our core is nowhere near that cluster of players.

  4. Unleaded says:

    Well Said Uni. I Agree.

    Cogs and Gilbert are two of our most valuable assets right now. Both for Heatley? I don't think so for the reasons you have outlined. I'd be more inclined to deal POS than Cogs personally, especially given their respective salaries, and let Andrew play right-wing with Gagner and Penner on the second line.

    Is there any reason the Oilers would be less likely to move the Grebs than Gilbert? Seems to me the Sens might be more interested in a puck mover who isn't getting payed 4 Mil/ Season. Especially if the Oilers want to get bigger…

    Finally, on the comments from our media friends… Last time I heard someone suggest they had a green light to make a move, it didn't mean that they were instructed to sell the farm to get a player. While I am not convinced that Heatley is who we need, I'm not against acquiring him if the price is reasonable. I would also suggest that our draft picks (1st or 2nd rounders) would be off limits. If they want more, give them some prospects. THis is a DEEP draft. you don't drop picks in a deep year unless you KNOW that you can win now. THe oilers are not in that position.

  5. Sean says:

    Hope your mother is well LT.

    Me thinks Gilbert, Cogliano and the 10th is too much as well. If we're gonna be near the cap, we will need Cogliano to be a value contract. I would do Gilbert, Nilsson or O'Sullivan, and next years first. Or I'd do Gilbert, Nilsson and Eberle.

    Katz' passion is a positive regardless. I'm actually more looking forward to the possibility of Gaborik or JBo.

  6. Bar Qu says:

    I agree with the posts so far and LT's assessment. The issue seemed to be beaten to death in the last post and a consensus arose that the Senators are not dealing from a position of strength. Sooooo, Gilbert and Cogs, while still an overpay is probably a fair deal to secure Heatley, throwing in the 10th pick is ludicrous. Maybe a third rounder to sweeten the deal, but no more.

  7. Oilman says:

    I think the only way you "throw in" the 10th pick is if Penner is going the other way instead of Cogs. Gilbert, Penner, 10th for Heatley and 39th.

  8. bookie says:

    I think this is a good thing IF Katz put the power in the hands of the GM and said "If you think its the right thing to do hockeywise, I am willing to bury a salary in the minors if the right deal is there to get Heatley" its bad if he is the one making the hockey decision.

  9. bookie says:

    I dunno, I think Cogs (as he matures) is a certainty to score 20 goals and could get over 30 in some years. Is an extra 10-15 goals a year worth the huge cap hit and the loss of potential in a trade?

  10. Jonathan Willis says:

    Exciting times. Good to have you back, LT, and I hope all is well.

    That 10th overall pick shouldn't be viewed as a draft pick; it should be viewed as a player. A player better than any current Oilers' prospect – better than Nash, Peckham or Eberle.

    I wouldn't trade it; surely Murray might be interested in some combination of Nash/Eberle/Omark + Brule/Schremp/Potulny/Trukhno.

    This could (hopefully) be Edmonton's last chance to grab an impact player at the draft in some time; they shouldn't waste it.

  11. Jonathan Willis says:

    Also – now there are two journalists banging the "Souray may be traded" drum. Brownlee's been on this for a while, but Matheson rather obviously dropped his name in that article.

  12. DBO says:

    Hope all is well LT and glad you're back.

    Katz being invovled is good in one sense, since obviously he cares and wants to win. Stashing contracts in the minors is the one thing a rich owner can really do to give you an edge. it can also be a bad thing, ie. look at his involvement with horc's deal. I really like Horcoff, but it was mentioned that Katz basically did that deal himself.

    All that being said, for years we have moaned about losing top players and getting young guys. For once we can, and apparently will, deal a 2 or 3 for 1 in order to bring in a legit star. It is a lot to give up, but Gilbert, Cogs and a swap of high picks adds $2.34 mill to our cap and we add a true #1 LW. We can still move other players, and sign depth guys to fill out the roster with "nhl" players and it immediately makes us a playoff contender. For all you haters out there, what would 20 extra goals have done for us this year? 5 more wins? that's playoffs people.

  13. pboy says:

    $7.5 million for a Heatley is just too much money for the Oilers to take on, especially considering that the cap is almost certain to drop over the next couple of years. Also, does anyone really believe that Gaborik, Hossa or Havlat who are all UFA, will be getting contracts with cap hits of $7.5 per this summer? Why would we dump 2 or 3 excellent assets to get Heatley, when we could try and sign one of those other guys and use those 2 or 3 assets to fill other holes on the team? I wouldn't hate to have a guy like Heatley on the Oil, his prescence would probably turn Hemsky into a 100 point player but this seems to expensive to me.

    I hope everything is fine with your Mom, LT.

  14. DBO says:

    JW: the Souray wants a deal thing is still intriguing. brownlee talked about it on Team 1260 yesterday, and he said it was only a rumour, but one that Souray never actually denied. If it's true, and he still wants out I like that it wasn't made public. It gives us more leverage in dealing him. The only problem i see is that the two teams he'd want to go to (SJ and LA) are also mentioned as two of the top teams going for heatley. If we get heatley (and i think we have a real shot), I would still love to see Souray for Clowe and SJ's 1st round pick. Then the Oil can go crazy and try for Bowmeester. Katz can stash contracts if needed, but if tambellini and Katz want to remake this team, getting two of the top prizes at the fair is one hell of a way to do it.

  15. Black Dog says:

    irk

    the first line drawn of the summer

    I'll pass on Heatley thanks, especially at that price

    Murray signed Penner apparently (I thought it was Burke) – I could get behind that but then again a pipe dream is likely all that is

    Move Gilbert and your big four is suddenly down to three. I'd keep him and Grebs. Move a vet if you need to move someone from the backend.

  16. Black Dog says:

    And LT, I hope all is well with your family. Best wishes and take care.

  17. hunter1909 says:

    The last time Edmonton had a real owner Gretzky was won in a backgammon game, so I honestly cannot whine about rich hands on owners.

    I don't know what's going to happen down the road, and for all I know the bottom line is Oilers end up like the 90's Leafs, contending but never making the jump over the top. Right now, having grown up with 20 years of lousy Oiler teams, that looks like an improvement.

    Having said that, Oilers are up to their necks in decent youngish players, many of whom are going to be demanding a lot more money than they're getting in a year or two from now. I certainly don't believe Cogliano is ever going to be as good as Dany Heatley is, and therefore am happy to see him traded for someone who is clearly superior.

    Anyway, compared to last season, which basically had me prepared to simply give up on hockey in general, such was the level of sheer arrogance/incompetance being shown the fans from the entire team from Lowe down to Chad Moreau, things seem to be looking up. Souray leaves? What a good idea, since he's unlikely to ever play as well as he did last season. Staios gets buried in the minors? The poor guy, making all that money, I'll be sure to cry myself to sleep every night.

  18. R-Gib says:

    I'm with Oilman… It should be Penner, not Cogliano, going the other way in the Heater deal. The salary swap needs to be roughly equivalent or we'll be hiding more than one salary in the minors. Remember, we still need to sign (overpay) a UFA goalie or two.

    Also, can someone explain to me why the Oil are so high on Eberle? I think it was Jonathan who pointed out that he's tracking below O'Sullivan. This team needs to reverse the fLowe and start buying low and selling high. That would mean Souray and Eberle should be out the door.

  19. digger says:

    I'm a bit leery about giving up the 10th overall pick, but if Tambellini can obtain Heatley and the price tag turns out to be Gilbert, Cogliano and a lower pick or prospect, I'm sorry but I'm having a hard time understanding the angst being felt here.

    As of today, we have Vish/Souray/Gilbert/Grebs with Peckham coming on strong and possibly Chorney/Petry coming in a couple of years. I really do think we could give up Gilbert and not fall apart.

    And douchebag or not, when you have an undeniably connected guy like Strachan saying that Bouwmeester is very likely to sign with the Oilers as a UFA…I suspect that would soften the blow a tad.

    Cogliano I'd miss more, but this past season started me wondering if he's going to fit here. He's going to have a hard time cracking the 2nd line gig with Gagner and O'Sullivan in the fold and Eberle on the way, and while some picture him as another Marchant that could anchor a strong 3rd line, he's so ridiculously inept at faceoffs that it could be a few years before he grows into that gig…and personally I think it's a gig that he'll rail against because he's got talent that deserves more of an opportunity to develop. When you're a guy his age with undeniable skills, the last thing you want is to be typecast as a 3rd liner. If nothing else, it limits your potential future earnings.

    On a lot of teams, Cogliano could be a 2nd line forward. If it's not going to be as an Oiler though, then I look at the trade as getting an elite 1st line LW who could mesh perfectly with Hemsky OR Gagner, for a 3rd liner/top 4 dman/draft pick package.

    Looking at it from that perspective, I do the deal and I don't regret it one iota.

  20. Ribs says:

    MacT isn't going anywhere.

    Too much is all I can say. Way too much.

  21. Jon says:

    Just because that is what Murray wants doesn't mean that is what he is going to get.

    I'm pretty sure you can pencil in Gilbert leaving town this summer for help upfront but then things get foggy.

    I don't think Tambo or Lowe is dumb enough to give up a contract that will only have cap implications of 0.8M (cogs) next year

    So that leaves two forwards O'sully and Penner.

    If they take O'sully, I think the 1st will be next years pick.

    If they take Penner then it will be the 10th.

    Let's say you can convince Murray to take Penner (ANA connection, saw in cup finals)but you would have to then add incentive in other areas. Would you do this deal?

    Gilbert, Penner, 2010 1st, Eberle
    for
    Heatley???

  22. Gord says:

    Putting aside that I don't want Heatley wearing an Oiler uniform for many reasons – let us compare O'Sullivan to Cogliano.

    Cogliano has averaged 18 goals per season his first two years in the NHL – most of his ice time this year was with "hands of stone" linemates. His shooting percentage is 17%.

    O'Sullivan has averaged about 18 goals per season; his shooting percentage is about 7%.

    Over 19 games as an Oiler, O'Sullivan scored 2 goals on 59 shots & had 4 assists; while being a -8…

    O'Sullivan carries a cap hit of $3 million; Cogliano just over $1 million.

    If we are going to be taking on a ridiculous cap hit in Heatley, it better be O'Sullivan who is part of the package.

    On a side note, I am getting frustrated with Katz's meddling in hockey matters. First Hossa & Laraque (while losing a very inexpensive GlenX) – now Heatley.

  23. godot10 says:

    Grebeshkov would be an ideal defensive partner for Volchenkov in Ottawa, so I don't think it necessarily would have to be Gilbert.

    I just pray the good Dany Heatley shows up, because the bad Dany Heatley, well, is a lazy spoiled narcissistic frat boy. We would have to hope that Quinn could work his magic with him.

  24. Bruce says:

    Gilbert, Cogs and a swap of high picks adds $2.34 mill to our cap and we add a true #1 LW.

    It adds $2.34 MM and subtracts a top 4 defenceman. We would have to add another roster player, meaning one more guy to sign and $2.34 MM less to get it all done. We're already walking the tightrope on the cap front.

    Sorry, Heater and a bunch of Reddoxes and Strudwicks won't get it done.

  25. Sean says:

    If Heatley comes in a trade and Vishnovsky is healthy next season, with a new coach, where does our PP rank?

    Unless the Oilers have a major overhaul (I hope they dont) they are going to need to be able to punish on the PP.

  26. gogliano says:

    Katz giving a green light might mean–I'm thinking best possible here–that he is willing to soak up the $4 million bonus Heatley has coming to him as a way to get the deal done/give Tamb. an advantage over other GMs. This might be in addition to the green light spoken of above regarding throwing players in the minors if need be.

    This is a rare opportunity for "cash" to be part of a trade. If a deal for Heatley is done before July 1st, I wouldn't doubt it was part of the equation.

  27. Sean says:

    If the deal is done before the $4 million day, I could see the deal being more favourable for the Oilers or a player like Penner, Staois, Nilsson, Moreau being thrown in. Its not my money, I'm all for it…

  28. Mr DeBakey says:

    "when you have an undeniably connected guy like Strachan saying that Bouwmeester is very likely to sign with the Oilers as a UFA"

    Heatley + Bouwmeester
    means that serious salary has to be moved
    Two of Horcoff, Souray, Visnovsky
    and Penner
    And Staios & Moreau
    and Kotalik & Pisani not re-signed

    Thats to stay under $55,000,000 next season
    and under $50,000,000 the one after

  29. gogliano says:

    I just read the Gregor article and it reads like Katz giving something of a blank cheque to get a deal done if he should so choose (far more tame than the rumors surrounding Laraque). This line sticks out:

    "Basically the blessing is there for Tambellini not to worry about where everyone will fit when acquiring Heatley."

    Also, Gregor insists the deal will happen before July 1st. Since this involves a $4 million dollar leap in the payroll for next year, the owner's blessing is a must.

    I don't think we have enough to think Katz is meddling where he should not meddle. It sounds more to me like the grey area of an owner showing (understandable) interest in a player, giving the resources to make the deal, but leaving it up to the GM to make the decision.

  30. hunter1909 says:

    Imagine if we land Heatley and Bouwmeester, and we have no idea which players will be leaving.

    We have a brand new motivational coach, who is proven to get the most out of talent.

    We also have a pretty youngish team, who have been left to fend for themselves by the previous mis-administration.

    Therefore: We add two premier players, and a great coach who is certain do improve this sorry assed bunch of Oilers, no matter who else comes in.

    What's to complain about?

    PS: I can't get excited about prospects not named Bobby Orr, since following M.A. Pouliot's last 2 seasons in the Q. Too many things can happen to these kids, from injuries, car accidents, or just fat headedness after getting feted as future NHL stars.

  31. Mr DeBakey says:

    My previous comment didn't come out quite right.

    Obviously, there can be different combinations of "Goers" & "Stayers".
    Especially, if some cheap young guy steps up.

    But,
    O'Sullivan rather than Cogliano in the mythical Heatley deal, and
    Visnovsky [whom I really like] rather than Gilbert.

    OT
    Would Nashville send Ellis in return for Moreau [or Staios].
    I think that might work for both.

  32. Woodguy says:

    This is a rare opportunity for "cash" to be part of a trade. If a deal for Heatley is done before July 1st, I wouldn't doubt it was part of the equation.

    Having $$$ as part of a trade is no longer allowed in the NHL.

    Heatley's skill is undeniable.

    The fact that he was happy in the 1st half of last season when the Sens were brutal, but he got his ice time, and was unhappy in the 2nd half when they were winning but his role was changed is concerning.

    50 goal scorers should be expected to have egos, but I prefer mine to also have a will to win and not just notch numbers.

    Still would get excited if they land him.

    I think they could land both he and Boumeester if you can trade Souray for much less $$$ coming back.

    Everyone says "impossible to do both", but really its not when you have an owner is willing to bury some $$$ in the AHL (if Katz is)

    If you really had to 3-4 teams would take Penner for picks too.

  33. mjsh says:

    Welcome back LT. I hope all is well with your mom.

    My take has already been said but I will add to the chorus. One puck moving D-man and O-sullivan is enough to land Heatley.
    I am also a believer that the team who gets the best player wins the trade no matter how many lessor peices you give up. Championships are won with top end players.

    I too want to keep Cogliano and we do want the extra salary going the other way. I would hate to lose Souray but if he wants to go to the West Coast, I think you can get more than Clough for him unless it is a salary dump so you can sign J-bo.

  34. kris says:

    Ideal Scenario:

    -Gilbert and O'Sullivan and next year's first for Heatley. (Cap hit increase is low.)

    -Souray to LA for LA's next year first. (Salvage the future.)

    -Sign Bowmeester to 7 million/year using Souray's money+.

    -Duff Staios and Nilson in the minors, replace with cheap whomever.

    -Trade Penner for 3C.

    -Destroy Competition.

    —-

    Reality:

    -Hemsky leads the team next year with 21 goals.

    -Souray and Visnovsky each spend most of the year living up to their history of injury.

    -Miss playoffs but with no cap problems.

  35. jon k says:

    Rumour was going around the Pronger was sent to LA for Johnson and the 5th overall. It's since been quashed already.

    I think it would have been a good deal, though favouring Anaheim heavily if Pronger didn't re-sign.

    Either way it would be excellent for Anaheim, continuing on their mini-rebuild.

  36. raventalon40 says:

    Why all the enthusiasm for Gaborik? He would make similar money and he's a RW anyway. Gaborik is slated to make at least 6.5 this off season.

  37. mjsh says:

    One last comment on the Heatley thing. I remember watching him play for the Calgary Canucks in the AJHL. I do not recall seeing him as soft in any way. I think Heatley has played for Quinn. Heatley will not be coming to Edmonton unless Quinn saw him good.

  38. Coach pb9617 says:

    Souray for Frolov and sign Bouwmeester.

    Hide or trade Staios, Moreau, Nilsson.

    Done and done.

  39. spOILer says:

    Woodguy> Gogliano is referring to the fact that the Sens could escape a $4M signing bonus if they trade Heatley prior to July 1.

    mjsh> I think a pretty good argument could be made that depth counts as much as star quality in one's line-up when it comes to winning championships.

  40. Ben says:

    The Pronger rumor hasn't been totally quashed, it's just being reported now as being in the works instead of a done deal. Andy Strickland's, who usually knows everything about Blues/ex-Blues, is reporting it.

  41. gogliano says:

    Pronger to LA again being reported, now by The Score. Sounds legit.

  42. jon k says:

    raventalon:

    The enthusiasm for Gaborik comes from him being one of the better players in hockey. If it wasn't for his health he'd consistently be a top 10 player and likely a top 5 goalscorer, even while playing on the most defensively stifling team in the league.

    His numbers show an ability to outscore against middling to tough opposition which is on par with Heatley's.

    mjsh:

    Heatley has played soft pretty consistently since his car accident I think. There's no doubt that he shies away from giving or receiving hits at this point. It may or may not have something to do with his knee, which was re-constructed following the accident. He's also had nagging shoulder injuries since then, I believe.

  43. spOILer says:

    Laperriere sounds like he's available… Maybe we should turn our focus away from Heatley?

  44. Anonymous says:

    Re: Bowman's quote. Seems to me he's implying the Wings ownership backed their hockey people to the hilt, not that they got directly involved. Commitment can mean support; it can also mean interference.

    Good managers (or owners) get the right people in the right position and let them do their thing; bad ones micromanage. Saying "go get Heatley" is micromanaging.

    Dunno, LT. I'm starting to get Steinbrenner vibes off of Katz— which might be fine if we were a luxury tax league, rather than a salary cap one, but we're not.

  45. Jon says:

    Conspiracy theory: A 3 way trade

    Ott Pronger,5th Frolov

    LA: Heatly, 9th

    ANA: Johnson, 39th

  46. Smytty777 says:

    Did Pronger just get traded to LA for Johnson and the 5th? The Score seems to indicate it is a done deal.

  47. spOILer says:

    Jon, I doubt Pronger would accept that trade.

  48. spOILer says:

    And by Pronger, I mean Lauren, of course. ;o)

  49. jon k says:

    Pronger doesn't have a NTC so tough beans to him.

    I don't think the deal is done. I think it's a case of some crossed wires somewhere.

    Andy Strickland, the fellow who reported the rumour initially, is hit or miss sometimes but he has some contacts. He said it was a done deal then went back to say it was merely rumoured. Supposedly he's a family friend of the Prongers so he might know.

    At this point if it's not confirmed by someone at TSN I doubt it's a deal.

  50. spOILer says:

    Sportsnet TV has reported the trade, but it's not on their website.

  51. spOILer says:

    If Anaheim isn't honouring Pronger's wishes, then Lauren would just tell Chris to demand another trade away from Ottawa. That deal just won't fly however you cut it.

  52. Smytty777 says:

    If that is the trade, I would be pissed as a Kings fan. They were set for a long time with a good stable of prospects. Unless Pronger has agreed to sign an extension he is one and done so it would be a retarded overpay by the Kings.

  53. raventalon40 says:

    @ jon k

    The enthusiasm for Gaborik comes from him being one of the better players in hockey.

    Yeah, I understand this. But we don't need two 1st line RW's and bang-for-buck I'd say Heatley is worth more. I liken Gaborik to Bure… great short term bad long term. He will inevitably keep getting hurt as his past history has indicated.

  54. jon k says:

    For a one year deal I doubt that Pronger's family would move to Ottawa if they thought it so distasteful.

    Realistically speaking if Pronger is getting traded it's probably to somewhere in California anyway.

  55. PDO says:

    Hope all is well on the family front LT.

    I think it's VERY important for Tambs to remember that until July 1, it's very possible we're bidding against ourselves.

    We know Heatley wants to go West.

    15 teams.

    Detroit, Chicago and Calgary have no room.
    CBJ, Nashville, Phoenix can't afford him.
    Colorado is too far away from contending.
    Anaheim has no need for him.

    That leaves Edmonton, Dallas, St. Louis, Vancouver, SJS, Dallas and LA.

    Edmonton & Vancouver are the only teams who would have any interest in paying that $4,000,000.

    Will Heatley really accept a trade to Vancouver with no Sedin Twins? Because they can't bring them back if they deal for Heater.

    Penner & Gilbert. Full stop.

  56. godot10 says:

    Calgary has cap room if they trade Phaneuf for Heatley.

  57. Coach pb9617 says:

    Calgary has cap room if they trade Phaneuf for Heatley.

    The IQ in that trade hovers around the Great One's number.

  58. jon k says:

    Dead Lombardi: Rumours not true.

    http://www.insidesocal.com/kings/

  59. Oilman says:

    Calgary has cap room if they trade Phaneuf for Heatley.

    The IQ in that trade hovers around the Great One's number.

    And I'd be willing to bet Heatley has Phaneuf beat by 30 to 40 IQ points!

  60. kris says:

    Okay that was unfair. Still.

  61. Bruce says:

    Heatley has played soft pretty consistently since his car accident I think. There's no doubt that he shies away from giving or receiving hits at this point. It may or may not have something to do with his knee, which was re-constructed following the accident. He's also had nagging shoulder injuries since then, I believe.

    He also suffered a weird eye injury during the lockout that left one of his pupils permanently dilated. He's a weird-looking mofo, would fit in on a line with Horcoff and Stortini. :)

    He's worn the shield ever since that horse was stolen, but there's no telling what eye injuries do to a player, in terms of vision and depth percention not to mention psychologically. Judging by 180 goals since the lockout, no problem with the former — maybe he sees better! — but there's no telling about the latter. The line between "self preservation" and "soft player" is a grey one.

  62. Oilman says:

    He also suffered a weird eye injury during the lockout that left one of his pupils permanently dilated. He's a weird-looking mofo, would fit in on a line with Horcoff and Stortini. :)

    Best story about Horcoff comes from my wife….i was reading a Sun article about Horcoff and a few other players visiting a hospital and there was a comment about how all the young nurses were all giddy and following Horcoff around…i made a comment like, pays to have a fat wallet, or some sort…and my wife looks at the picture and I kid you not says "I don't know, he's pretty cute except for the big ears, the bump on his nose, and the lazy eye…..he's got nice hair!"

  63. speeds says:

    Yeah, I understand this. But we don't need two 1st line RW's and bang-for-buck I'd say Heatley is worth more. I liken Gaborik to Bure… great short term bad long term. He will inevitably keep getting hurt as his past history has indicated.

    How can we say that, bang for buck, Heatley is worth more when Gaborik hasn't signed?

    Don't get me wrong, I understand the argument that durability is very important, but let's not also forget that signing Gaborik would also mean EDM would still have whatever pieces it would take to acquire Heatley to use in other deals, or keep, or whatever.

    So the relative durability favors Heatley, sure, but it is balanced against the trade costs and whatever contract it would take to sign Gaborik. How you balance those depends on all sorts of factors, but certainly as the price of acquiring Heatley rises he becomes less attractive, relative to going to the UFA market/picking up a different salary dump this summer.

  64. rider guy says:

    If that Pronger rumor is true, that's a terrible deal for Anaheim. You should always make sure you get 5 assets for a player like Pronger.

  65. jon k says:

    Exactly speeds. While Heatley would be great to get, I won't be upset if he goes to LA, because then they're out of contention for Gaborik.

    Supposedly Gaborik's surgery this past year was also corrective of his long term groin concerns.

    It all makes for a nice risk to take.

  66. Bruce says:

    Jebus Hockey Christ, how many people have traded Sheldon Souray this week? 1000? He may have been Oilers MVP last year, first blueliner ever to lead the team in goals, major minute muncher and the kind of enforcer who is 9 parts deterrence and 1 part taking out the garbage, but far more likely to be on the ice when the situation calls for it than some goober taking up space on the end of the bench. Never mind that he has a NMC. But folks just can't wait to get him the hell out of town. Whazzup with that??

  67. Kevin says:

    I feel like I've gone crazy – isn't Tanguay available this off-season? I think the Oil would benefit from ignoring their videogame (read:PR) instincts to accumulate scoring stars (read: saleable commodities), and take a serious look at how to get Tanguay and Bouwmie under the cap and on the team. I think Heatley could be incredible with Hemsky, but is too one-dimensional for his contract, especially for the Oilers who have a few holes this off-season.

    A line of Horcoff-Tanguay-Pisani (with Gags-Cogs-Hemsky on soft parade) could be one of the best outscoring lines in the league – right up there with anything Detroit can put together. Teams that rely on a few highly paid, strong boxcar players often struggle under salary cap hockey.

    If there have to be trades, I would rather see them do any or all of the following:
    - move Staois(+) for the right to negotiate with Bouwmie;
    - Nilson(+) for Harding (see JW's excellent post); and
    -Penner/O'sullivan/or Defenseman and the 10th to Atl or LA for the fourth or fifth to pick Evander Kane.
    - Then I would target Jeff Halpern out of T-bay to fill the 3rd line C position.

  68. Coach pb9617 says:

    Whazzup with that??

    Asset management, Bruce. Age, a big cap number, and with a glut of dmen, combined with a fluke season that has his value at an all-time high makes him marketable.

  69. Dennis says:

    Oh my did Rider guy ever fucking crack me up:)

    I will expect all Lowe supporters to fall on their swords if Murray lands Johnson plus a 5th overall pick for a Pronger asset with one year remaining and aging to boot.

  70. Sean says:

    Coach: I wouldn't go as far as to call Souray's season a fluke. He is only 2 years removed from a better season offensively. Plus his grit and leadership isnt going to disappear. As long as he has that steal plate in his forearm that is ;)

  71. kris says:

    I'll be blunt.

    What reason does anyone have to think Gaborik would ever sign here?

    Hossa and Nylander wouldn't sign here even for ridiculous overpays.

    Pronger, Peca, Spacek, and Pitkanen didn't seem excited to stay. (Visnovsky seemed less than thrilled to be traded here.)

    Souray and Penner came only for massive overpays; and neither of those guys is a Gaborik quality player.

    History suggests our chances of landing big name free agents are terrible. No? So isn't it inwise to not trade for a star in the hopes of signing one?

  72. Sean says:

    Kris: Your probably right but I think Katz provides a chance.

    Man if LA gets Pronger, that's another team the Oilers have to pass to make the dance next year. St Louis, Nashville, CBJ and now LA? NW teams could be in trouble…

  73. kris says:

    Moreover, aren't we going to have to trade one of Cogliano/Gagner/O'Sullivan at some point soon. Wasn't that one of the lessons from last year: too many players of the same mould, etc. (Presumably it won't be Gagner)

    Of course, that's not to say we should trade Cogliano+ for Heatley. Nonetheless, the idea that we can keep both O'Sullivan and Cogliano in the top 6 while playing Gagner and Hemsky in the top 6 is a non-starter, if we want to make the playoffs.

    It might be uncomfortable, but something's gotta give with our small, young forwards.

  74. hunter1909 says:

    "Pronger, Peca, Spacek, and Pitkanen didn't seem excited to stay. (Visnovsky seemed less than thrilled to be traded here.)"

    kris: It doesn't take a genius to understand that no one wanted to come and play for a team as poorly managed as the Oilers were. And those who did give it a try, soon found themselves in the middle of an incestuous, back slapping bunch of out of date hockey minds.

  75. Bruce says:

    Hunter, I get your schtick, but that's just silly. Are yo saying that in the summer of 2006, when three of the four guys you named left, the Oilers appeared to have bad management? Kevin Lowe swung for the fences right from the end of the lockout, and hit a triple off the top of the wall.

    If the guy fanned with RISP in the following in subsequent innings, he still hit that triple. Hit it in the only inning that Pronger, Peca and Spacek (and Samsonov) were here. WTF would they leave at that time citing "bad management"??

    Man, you're a hard marker.

  76. blackadder says:

    Ottawa is really up against it here. There's only a few teams realistically in the mix right now. After July 1 when the big name free-agents sign and cap space shrinks, they'll find ever fewer teams willing to bargain. That, plus the 4 million bonus payment due July 1, doesn't exactly make this guy a hot commodity. Murray may want a Gilbert/Cogliano/1st pick type combination but I doubt any team is going to cough up that kind of offer.

    Personally, if Ottawa wants Gilbert or Grebeshkov, I'd hope the Oilers will demand they take Staois and Penner (or Nilsson) as well. If they want O'Sullivan or Cogliano, then they need to take Souray.

  77. oilerdago says:

    Welcome back LT – hope your mom is doing better.

    I'd hate to see Cogliano go anywhere unless it's for an outstanding talent because he's going to be a beaut when he adjusts to the wing. Remember, 18 goals as a 3rd liner. I'd prefer to see O'Sullivan go instead of Cogs in the deal.

    Re: Gilbert vs. Grebs – you send Gilbert because Grebs is going to be a $1million less/year salary cap hit.

    And while I don't like losing draft picks, I send the 10th because you're not getting a premo talent at that spot.

    Coming back we get a talent who solves the PP and we get a contract buried in the minor's?

    I do the deal this way.

  78. Deano says:

    Bruce,

    It is possible that the 2006 run had more to do with the changing fortunes of the Oilers as they moved from EIG-cheapness to post-cap spendthrifts.

    Lowe's moves may have just been opportunistic luck and MacT's brilliance stemmed from being given a full stable of horses. (Lowe did hit a triple off the top of the wall, but the pitch was a hanging curve ball.)

    Carolina was in a similar situation and they were the winner in 2006. It can also be said that they have been better managed since.

    Hunter may have a point. The Oilers' management has looked far from brilliant since 2006, lending more credence to the theory that luck was a larger factor than was first thought.

    How did they all get so stupid so quickly?

  79. Asiaoil says:

    Big Deal 1 – Gilbert, Penner and Eberle for Heatley and Smith. We take just over $10 million off the OTT roster and send back just over $8.25 million – but Smith's deal ends next summer and he can be buried if necessary. The OTT top 4 looks good (Phillips, Tank, Kuba, Gilbert) and they have Penner to replace some of Heatley's goals on LW plus Murray knows him. Heatley's contract length, amount and bonus are HUGE negatives for OTT in dealing a guy who does not want to be there.

    Big Deal 2 – Visnovsky to FLA for a resigned Jaybo prior to July 1. Good for both teams and nobody has the ability to give FLA more than this for an expiring contract.

    Smaller Cap Deals – move out Staios and Nilsson for picks, capspace or anything useful (3rd line winger, goalie, prospect). Use Cogliano to move up in the draft.

    Heatley Horcoff Hemsky
    POS Gagner Pisani
    Moreau Brodziak xxx
    JFJ Brule/MAP Stortini/Mac

    Grebs Souray
    Jaybo Smid
    Peckham Smith/Strudwick

    Halak/Anderson

  80. NBOilerFan says:

    That is not a bad looking lineup Asia… but what do the dollars work out to?

  81. Coach pb9617 says:

    All of these deals just give up too much. If you really want Heatley, and I don't, give Ottawa:

    Cogliano/O'Sullivan, Petry, a second and next year's first.

    If they say no, tell them to go pound salt and jump on Gaborik or Bouwmeester depending on what you get for Souray.

    Draft Glennie and Erixon, hide/trade one of Moreau and Staios and sign Wes Walz.

  82. Bruce says:

    Coach: But Wes Walz is retired!

    :D

  83. NBOilerFan says:

    Coach, that is basically what I think should be done. I really want them to go after JayBo but hope that they are able to move Souray to do it. There is absoultely no better time to move Souray, his value is at a high, now is the time to move him if you can get any takers in a land he would be willing to go. Then sign Jaybo on one of those Detroit type front-loaded contracts. I would really hate to have to move Vish, but would be willing to do that also to make room for JayBo.

    I would also love to see them target Gaborik as well, but only if we could get him in the $5mil per range probviding that we can shed the salary to do it.

    And I also want them to keep the #10 pick unless the can use it to trade up.

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