Talking to Ralph on the Great White Telephone

The Edmonton Oilers are closer to acquiring Dany Heatley today. How do I know? Well, with Ottawa’s signing of Alexei Kovalev to a “full price” contract the choices for Heatley appear to be “agree to a deal, puke” or “rot in hell, prick.”

The nature of the Kovalev deal may also mean Edmonton takes on an additional contract (possibly Jason Smith) meaning Smith, Robert Nilsson or Steve Staios may spend 2009-10 in the minor leagues.

Too much? Irrational? I don’t think so. The possibility of an Andrew Cogliano, Dustin Penner and Ladislav Smid for Dany Heatley and Jason Smith trade is so strong today one imagines it could be announced before I stop typing. The only other possibility is a third NHL team entering the negotiations, although the General Manager who chooses the route will need the job security of Lou Lamoriello.

Is there a GM in the NHL with the stones to trade full value tonight for Dany Heatley? I’d bet money Dany Heatley is an Oiler in the near future.

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159 Responses to "Talking to Ralph on the Great White Telephone"

  1. Ribs says:

    Is there a GM in the NHL with the stones to trade full value tonight for Dany Heatley?

    Which leaves you wondering…Why the heck are the Oilers trading full value?

    If the old deal is "off the table" any new deal should be slanting more in the Oilers favour by my thinking.

    I want someone to squirm. I'd like it to not be us.

  2. Bruce says:

    Can Ottawa afford Penner?

  3. Lowetide says:

    Ribs: I think the Oilers want Heatley so badly they'll overpay some more. Seriously.

    Bruce: Sure. Remember, they're getting three roster players in exchange so although the money isn't slight they gain roster spots.

    Heatley=7.5
    J Smith=2.6

    Penner 4.25
    Cogliano 1.113
    Smid 1.2?

    So that's 10.1 coming to Edmonton and 6.563-ish heading to Ottawa.

  4. Ribs says:

    I know it as well as you, LT. They will pay…we will facepalm.

  5. 99thoilerfan says:

    Lowtide,

    As always I enjoy your work.

    Dany! Hey Dany!

    Want to come out and play?

  6. Traktor says:

    I want Horcoff on this team more than I want Heatley and that says a lot.

  7. kris says:

    I refuse to believe this until Heatley actually plays a game in copper and blue.

  8. kris says:

    Ralph?

  9. DBO says:

    agree LT. I made a armchair deal for Heatley prior to all this going down a few weeks back on another thread, and i figured the only way we got them to take Penner was for us to take back salary like Smith. now if tambellini is able to get Volchenkov instead of Smith, then i'll feel a lot better about the deal. Both are UFa's after the year so don't hurt us cap wise next year, both are veterans, with Smith being the "leader" we may need, and Volchenkov being that hard hitter we sorely lack. I would much prefer Volcenkov, but Jason Smith seems like a more likely candidate. It won't happen, but with the Sens basically drawing a line in the sand, could Tambellini not propose a different deal excluding cogs (I realize he was probably the key). We take Smith, they subsitute Nilsson for cogs. If they want cogs, they make it Volchenkov. the oil have the leverage here, and for once I want them to use it to make a better deal for Heatley. Stop begging, we have the upper hand. or as George Costanza once said, we have HAND.

  10. godot10 says:

    I think (perhaps hope, on my knee's praying) that Doug Wilson will save the day.

  11. Jonathan Willis says:

    Brownlee put up a similar piece a little earlier today – his best guess at a trade was:

    The aforementioned trio + pick/prospect for Heatley + Schubert

    Given that Brownlee really would prefer this trade not to happen, I think we can safely view his opinion as a strong indicator that it will.

  12. Ribs says:

    kris: Link

  13. DBO says:

    on another note, the Blackhawks are fucked.

    Sources tell TSN the National Hockey League Players Association has filed a grievance over the Chicago Blackhawks mishandling of a number of its qualifying offers and intends to argue the players affected by the mishap, who remain unsigned, should be ruled unrestricted free agents.

    from TSN.ca

  14. chartleys says:

    I'm still saying boourns

  15. spOILer says:

    Ottawa could just go the year with Heatley suspended, couldn't they? A la Niedermayer.

  16. NBOilerFan says:

    Ribs said…
    "Which leaves you wondering…Why the heck are the Oilers trading full value?"

    It's simple… because this ensures that the Oilers are the one true player in this deal. As soon as the Oilers pull out Cogliano and replace him with a lesser player, then this deal is drastically reduced in value which then opens the door for Murray to start looking at other teams more seriously (and for others to make comparative offers). If the Oilers want to keep the pressure on as being ONLY team with a "legitimate" offer, they can't start changing it.

    I am a huge fan of Penner, Cogs and Smid and have never liked this deal since I first heard it on TSN, but I also would be lying if I wasn't also somewhat excited about the prospect of what this team could do with a true sniper of Heatley's caliber.

    My other issues is that regardless if what Tambs says, this is hampering any potential deals until it is resolved or until they pull the offer completely.

    I also don't think less of Heatley for not waiving his NTC… do you think that any of Cole, Vish, O'Sully or Kotalik really wanted to be traded to Edmonton? My guess is no… same for Heatley. It will take a bit of time for him to think it over and absorb it some and I wou;d not be surpriosed that he ends up even starting to like the idea and accepting.

    The one other thing is that, like Tambs has said, they really don't have the cap space or contract status to pick up much off free agency the way they sit curently… they really need to move a contract and this deal is pretty decent as far as being able to move Penner. Though I really like the idea of keeping him, Cogs and Smid. But I can live with this deal if Heatley changes his mind.

    And Smith back is a sentimental fav for me… not such a good hockey idea, but still.

  17. spOILer says:

    I mean, not that they would want to, I'm sure they'd prefer getting players and be done with it all. But it is an option, no?

    Does the Kovalev signing have cap implicatons for the trade? Gotta be. How much do salary do they need to send back now?

    Did Murray and Tambo discuss this eventuality last week, perhaps?

  18. NBOilerFan says:

    And might as well pipe in on the Bulin Wall signing since I have been on the road since before July 1st.

    I was I think the only guy on here that was pushing Biron to the Oilers and I sure wish that they had tabled an offer like this to him instead, since he is about 7 years yonger and I feel is as good or better. Maybe Biron ends up getting a better deal but i doubt it. I just don't see why the Oilers made it a 4 year deal for Khabby… even 3 years sounds much better to me. But other then the term, I am quite content with this deal… the $3.75 per is fine with me for a proven #1 even if he is older (Rolie is much older) I never liked Clemmensen as an option much, and teh only other guy I would have liked was Anderson and he too is not a proven #1.

  19. Asciutto says:

    If Heatley and Smith come back
    That's a $61,000,000 team

    And it still Sux!

  20. spOILer says:

    No worries, doesn't look like any cap implications on OTT's side at all. Got a little paranoid for a mo', don't know what I was smoking.

  21. spOILer says:

    Brownlee has indicated Schubert, which would be much more preferable from, or for, our end.

  22. Bill Needle says:

    The more I hear about this whole mess, Heatley and the Oilers are so made for each other. Their actions this summer make them soulmates of stupidity.

  23. kris says:

    Thanks Ribs. I actually thought, and I'm serious here, that LT was getting info from some guy named Ralph. (Intranuovo maybe?) I imagined the 'big white phone' was something like the mythical red phone in the White House that was a direct line to Russia, only bigger.

  24. PDO says:

    We'd bury Schubert.

    Right?

    RIGHT??

  25. Oilmaniac says:

    HAHA.. Thanks Kris for that interpretation…

  26. kris says:

    So, now we are going to get Heatley? I so confuse.

    —-

    If the deal goes through, you have to hand it to Murray. I mean, just look at how much better he's dealt with the demand of a star player to be traded than K-Lo did.

    Murray trades for some nice parts in Smid (cheap 4-5 D) and Penner (secondary scoring, two-way play), get's a bonafide young star, and uses the salary cap savings to get Kovalev, a player who will replace a lot of the scoring that Heatley brought to the table.

    The Sens still have problems, but they're probably in a better position going forward than they were with Heatley.

    Can we trade for Murray?

  27. Greg MC says:

    LOL, it's not that bad!

    Felt sorry for the 3 players twisting in the wind when the snafu was in effect and no trade was made. This is the best of a bad situation.

  28. NBOilerFan says:

    To the guys that are completely against Heatley coming here… when he pot's 40+ goals this season… do you really think you will still be so down on him?

    …. seriously?

    We can all shit on him for not agreeing immediatley and for his actions in all of this but none of us except Heatley and his agents, Brian Murray and the Oilers brass no what the real deal is.

    I stated above that I don't hold a grudge against Heatley for not agreeing to waive his NTC… but that might also be because i was happy he didn't initially.\

    But I have since really grown more fond of the idea of acquiring him and do not hold any ill-will toward Tambs and Co. for their actions thus far. I just don't want to find out later that we also missed out on a great #3C while waiting on this deal. I also will assume that they are still on the phone to other teams and trying to improve the club not waiting on Heatley.

    But I would be lying if I didn't admit that the thought of finally acquiring an elite goal scorer like this makes me excited. If it doesn't happen, I am certainly fine with that as well. I like Penner, Cogs and Smid and will be very happy to strat teh season with them (just hope that they all realize that this is all part of the business).

  29. Steve says:

    To the guys that are completely against Heatley coming here… when he pot's 40+ goals this season… do you really think you will still be so down on him?

    Dany Heatley is an excellent hockey player, and I'll sure appreciate having him on the Oilers. On balance, I think I'd appreciate Penner, Smid, Cogliano, and whatever we did with the rest of the cap difference more.

  30. bookie says:

    LT – I thought that by signing Kovalev that they replaced some of Heatley's scoring and as such they could accept less in return for the now very degraded asset that Heatley is. So, I am thinking that LA, San Hose, or some other team could trade back one decent $3-4 million player + a prospect/pick or two.

    This argument is deflated if nobody has the cap room.

    So, essentially what i am suggesting is that they are going to trade him for whatever they can get from a 'Heatley approved' team.

  31. spOILer says:

    Wow, Barker signed, pronto!

  32. Lowetide says:

    bookie: I doubt Murray is in that kind of a generous mood. Fact is the Sens needed some help on the top 6F before Heatley asked for a trade. They need to get max. value for him.

    NBOilerfan: I didn't like the trade before it went Zoolander. Heatley's a nice player but the Oilers aren't "one player away" and Dick Allen won the home run championship one year while being the most despised man in baseball.

    Talent is important, but this team is better off imo watching Cogliano for one more season to make sure he isn't something really, really good.

    We don't know that yet.

  33. bookie says:

    Dany Heatley is an excellent hockey player, and I'll sure appreciate having him on the Oilers. On balance, I think I'd appreciate Penner, Smid, Cogliano, and whatever we did with the rest of the cap difference more.

    I can totally see the attraction of Heatley because we have so many of the other pieces of the puzzle. We have puck moving defensmen, a great passer, and a strong and balanced centre. Adding a goal scoring threat like that would amplify the play of the other 4 (on the line with him).

    This new 1st line would concentrate the attention of the best of opposition defense, meaning that our 2nd line would face slightly softer opposition. This could open up some room for them.

    In addition to this, winning in the 'get an elite' player game may help to remove some of the 'Edmonton sucks' game that we all like to play.

    I see the attraction.

  34. godot10 says:

    Supposedly, 6 of the 7 guys in Chicago are now signed. Only Versteeg to go.

  35. bookie says:

    bookie: I doubt Murray is in that kind of a generous mood. Fact is the Sens needed some help on the top 6F before Heatley asked for a trade. They need to get max. value for him.

    You can't always get what you want,
    You can't always get what you want,
    You can't always get what you want,
    but if you try some times, you get what you neeeeed,
    Unless you have a stubborn player with a no-trade clause and an overpriced contract,
    then you get what you caaaaannn…

    Talent is important, but this team is better off imo watching Cogliano for one more season to make sure he isn't something really, really good.

    I also see this point of view. Cogs could be really, really good. He could be as good as Smyth (in a different way). Even Penner may come closer to earning his salary over the next few years if he is not in a battle with the coach.

  36. PDO says:

    Bookie:

    Not to mention, it's building the team from the top down.

    It gives us a bonafide first line, we keep our top 4 D in tact, and from there move on down the line.

    So you assume that Schubert comes along to help our AHL team become respectable again.

    From there you go looking to dump Nilsson and find a better option for the top 6, finding a 3 line C, and getting a cheap D if you need to deal one of your big D.

    But it fills the (arguable) biggest hole.

    Especially if Hemsky can't stand playing with Penner.

  37. kris says:

    LT:

    "this team is better off imo watching Cogliano for one more season to make sure he isn't something really, really good."

    I'm willing to admit the Heatley deal is risky and we're paying a high price, but I don't agree with the above quote.

    What are the chances that Cogliano develops into a player anywhere near as good as Heatley? I mean Heatley isn't a complete player, he's a bit lost in his own end, but he scores as good as anyone not named Ovechkin. Cogliano has some offense in him too, though at his best he's Danny Briere not Dany Heatley, but let's not forget Cogs shown a lot of flaws in his all around game. The kid can't play center, and we're told he can't play the wing either. He's small. Sucks at faceoffs. On and on.

  38. bookie says:

    Quote from Murry "Mr. Melnyk was adamant, that we should go do it (sign Kovalev) and we can figure out how everyone can fit in when the time comes,"

    The near billionaire owner of the Sens may be willing to eat some salary in the minors in the manner that we have been attributing to Katz.

    Is there anyway that Ottawa can suspend Heatley or make his life suck so that they don't have to pay him?

  39. PDO says:

    Things we know:

    #1) Horcoff will be the number 1 C on this team for a while.
    #2) Only one of Gagner or Cogliano can play on the soft minutes line at C.
    #3) Both want to.
    #4) Cogliano can't win faceoffs, Sam is getting better at it. He also seems like a better bet to be better in his own zone, insane wheels or not.
    #5) Sam is younger, and the organization is higher.

    … it's almost to a point where you have to deal one of them, because they're both playing for the same spot. Is Heatley the hill to die on with it?

    Maybe, maybe not.

    But I can certainly see why Cogliano is on the table. You can only dress 12 forwards.

  40. Lowetide says:

    kris: There are two many questions about Dany Heatley's conditioning, coachability and attitude.

    I'll say this: if the Oilers were close to the Stanley this deal would have way more appeal than it does currently.

    And if this was a UFA hire then good to go.

    But procurement for a building team (and the Pronger to ANA deal made the Oilers a building team) means building through the draft.

    Shortcuts are for also-rans.

  41. PDO says:

    LT:

    Yes, but you can't develop talent in a losing environment either.

    Where's Chicago if they didn't trade for Havlat and sign Campbell?

  42. Lowetide says:

    PDO: The Oilers have acquired veteran players so far without trading the Hemsky's or the Gagner's.

    Or the Cogliano's.

  43. kris says:

    LT:

    Fair enough.

    If I had Kane and Toews, I'd try to bring in as many young players as possible, keeping way under the cap until they were really ready to play the toughs. Then I'd use my cap space to bring in some vets and maybe steal a superstar or two.

    But Cogs and Gagner aren't Kane and Toews. The latter two players are almost locks to be truly great. The former two players have a chance at greatness, but are more likely to become good players, just not elite. (Gagner has a better chance, I think)

    So, if we really want to go with a youth movement, we've got to tank pretty hard, get another couple of lottery picks, trade some of our vets -Souray, Horcoff, Visnovsky- for younger, less proven players. Cogs and Gagner won't cut it.

    If we're gonna go young, we have to blow up the team, and that's not happening with a new owner who wants to build a new arena in a city with an inferiority complex.

  44. PDO says:

    LT:

    Yes, but they're also viewing this as getting out of the Penner contract. Smid is in the deal, but I'm not convinced that's much.

    Heatley has some warts… but given what we've seen him do with Spezza and Alfredsson, we know that if he plays with Horcoff & Hemsky we instantly have a PVP line that we might get to throw the elite word around for a few years at least.

    There's also the Hemsky contract issue. We've already blown 3 years of it; how many more?

    At some point you have to move the cluster forward. Heatley is still only 28, and he's a two time 50 goal scorer.

  45. Lowetide says:

    kris: I'm not suggesting the Oilers tank, but you can't go trading away the really good young players before you know what they bring.

    Remember Miro Satan? At 21 years old he scored 18-17-35 in 62 games on a team that scored 240 goals. He was in on 14.6% of the offense.

    Cogliano at 21 went 82gp, 18-20-38 on a team that scored 228 goals. He was in on 16.7% of the offense.

    Now Satan had a coach who couldn't see what he was and we don't have TOI, but imo we just need to know more about Cogliano before dealing him.

    Unless they're trading him for another 21-year old making 1.133M next season.

  46. PDO says:

    The one thing about Heatley that is all kinds of fantastic:

    His shot is going to remain fantastic (barring injury).

    He doesn't add a tonne beyond it.

    So, theoretically, age shouldn't hurt him.

    Of course, those warts hurt in that you want a better player; but his goal scoring ability should remain near the top of the NHL over the entire course of his contract. His backchecking can't exactly get worse, and he doesn't rely on physical tools to score.

    And if he can find some go, then you're laughing.

  47. PDO says:

    LT:

    Cogliano is a UFA in 5 years.

    Heatley is a UFA in 5 years.

    Do we know enough about both players to say who will help their team (ignoring cap hit for now) more over the next 5 years?

    And is that worth the difference in salary?

  48. Lowetide says:

    PDO: If we're talking about this upcoming season and making the playoffs, then by all means Heatley makes sense.

    I like all three players and am fine with dealing Penner and Smid. But Cogliano is the hill I die on, can't see it making sense in the grand scheme of team building.

    Has there ever been a team with this many holes that added a 7.5M winger by trading three young players and then shot up the standings and won the Stanley?

    I'd bet no.

  49. Lowetide says:

    Let me put it another way: if I was a fan of the Vancouver Canucks, this trade makes sense. Calgary? you bet. Maybe even Minnesota.

    But Edmonton? Denver? No. The time will come for a trade like this, but the Oilers just aren't good enough, they don't have enough depth and certainly don't have enough young players who may emerge as difference makers.

  50. PDO says:

    LT:

    We have holes, yes, but are we perhaps overstating them?

    We have 3 specific area's we need to improve:

    #1) Powerplay.
    #2) Penalty Kill.
    #3) Forwards who can move puck north/win a draw.

    Not in any specific order, but I have to imagine a PP that features Hemsky, Gagner, Heatley, and one of Lubo or Souray on the point solves that problem in a hurry.

    And we know that Heatley – Horcoff – Hemsky could take on toughs and do well. We know it because Horcoff and Hemsky can both do it, and Heatley did it playing the toughs in Ottawa with Spezza and Alfredsson.

  51. Dennis says:

    I think we always knew we couldn't keep both 13 and 89 and considering the former can't win a faceoff and the Oilers don't see him as a winger, that's not the worse move.

    And it's nice to get rid of 27's deal and I'm not as big on 5 as some others.

    But, you're picking up a pricey and bonafide arsehole and those guys are a lot like leopards.

  52. kris says:

    Interesting

    Suppose it's 1996. Would you trade Satan, Kovalenko, and De Vries for
    a 28 year old who had been one of the best goal scorers in the league?

    Does the cap make this analogy worthless?

    (Maybe there are better comparables in there somewhere…)

  53. PDO says:

    LT:

    Are you so sure though?

    We do this trade, and we've got the first line set.

    We have 2/3 of the second line set (Gagner, O'Sullivan), and with some luck we could parlay Nilsson for a pick and bring in a cheap UFA (Kotalik, Sykora.. those guys) to round that line out.

    Up front we'd need a 3 line C (Bonk?) and we're set there.

    The backend is very strong.

    Cap reasons might hurt that, but then again we know that Staios can be dumped, being what we saw with Vandermeer.

    We know that the bottom of the roster is just filler for the most part, and given what Calgary has done the past few years, you can fix up your bottom 6 F real fast anyway.

    Heatley – Horcoff – Hemsky
    Kotalik – Gagner – O'Sullivan
    Moreau – Bonk – Pisani

    Visnovsky – Grebeshkov
    Souray – Gilbert

    Khabibulan

    … that's a playoff team, that could make some noise with health and bounces. You might very well be looking at a downgrade in the top 4 D there to make it work $$ wise, and that would throw a wrench in it… but if this trade goes through, I'm a happy camper, wish Cogliano the best of luck, and hope that Tambs has the foresight to fill out the rest of the roster with a few minor moves.

    … and that's what we need to remember. We desperately, desperately need a 3 line C and hopefully an upgrade on Bobby at cheaper dollars in the top 6.

    But those are minor moves.

  54. kris says:

    I'm looking for a Heatley comparable in 1996. Shanahan without the grit and heart?

  55. Lowetide says:

    PDO: This team has some problems.

    1. Not enough actual NHL players.
    2. Some of the actual NHL players are injured a bit and or take stupid penalties.
    3. Those same veterans are exposed on the PK.
    4. Those same veterans are under contracts that are not value-deals.
    5. The kids who are developing (Gagner, Cogliano) have similar talents, while the players with other things (Jacques, Pouliot) are either not developing or doing it by sundial.

    The Oilers have 11 good NHL players: Horcoff, Hemsky, Moreau, O'Sullivan (I believe), Pisani, Gilbert, Grebeshkov, Staios, Souray, Visnovsky, Khabibulin.

    Exactly one half a roster. Exactly.

  56. roadiejobs99 says:

    Eklund says heatley to Columbus- hockeybuzz.com?

  57. Lowetide says:

    Well now, that makes more sense to me. You've got tons of young talent available plus many more actual NHL players than the Oilers do.

    Much better team for Heatley. Much better. Good for Howson. Go Howson!

  58. PDO says:

    LT:

    After this deal, they'd have 12, not to mention a guy with something you can certainly call elite.

    I'm not sold that it's a big deal if you have "NHL players" in the 10/11/12/13/14 and 5/6/7 spots. Most teams don't.

    9+4+1 = 14 spots where I think it's REALLY, REALLY important to have legitimate NHL players.

    Oilers would have 12.

    You'll notice I had them adding 2 more of them in Kotalik/Sykora and Bonk :-).

  59. Lowetide says:

    PDO: lol. Okay, if you can get Tambellini to acquire a veteran backup goalie, another defender from the Hedja tree, a third line center with a lot of experience, a safety net for Pisani should he get injured, an alternative to Nilsson/Eberle at 2line R, someone who can wallop people should the crazy train go down and Jim Dowd then I'm on board.

    Good?

  60. PDO says:

    Actual NHL players on CBJ:

    Nash, Huselius, Umberger, Modin, Vermette, Pahlsson, Torres, Commodore, Tyutin, Hejda, Klesla, Garon.

    12.

  61. roadiejobs99 says:

    Kovalev signs with sens, now this Columbus rumour. Have you ever been to Columbus? Don't see how that is more of a desirable city. Murray is doing his best to stick it to Heatley. Funny!

  62. PDO says:

    LT:

    Can we settle for dumping Nilsson+Staios, signing Kotalik+Bonk, and bringing in a cheap vet D to replace Staios?

  63. Lowetide says:

    PDO: No. Plus your Columbus list leaves out the fact that the Jackets have several roster spots to fill and will likely do so with actual players.

  64. oilerdago says:

    PDO: you don't want Bonk. While he can still win a face off, that's hit. He's slow, does not track people in his own end and has been one of the worst +/- guys on Nashville the last couple of years.

    We want Malhotra.

  65. PDO says:

    LT:

    I don't see it with CBJ.

    Filatov, Brassard and Voracek will all be on that roster. So will Mason, Boll and Russel, and that's just off the top of my head….

  66. Sean says:

    LT whats wrong with this year?

    - We're shooting the moneyball on the Gagner contract.
    - They've waited 3 years to acquire a LW to play with Hemsky and Heatley qualifies
    - We wasted last year being a soft team that cant punish on the PP. With Heatley, Lubo and a new coach I'm optimistic we can.
    - We have the assets to acquire at the deadline.
    - This team needs some positive press. A new rink and a playoff appearance just might be enough for a hometown boy to consider signing here again.

  67. Traktor says:

    Go Howson!

  68. Lowetide says:

    PDO: I think we have to admit Mason is an actual NHL player despite the lack of experience.

    Also, Voracek makes that club but I imagine those other kids would form the basis for the Heatley trade. I haven't run the CLB depth chart with Heatley and without some of the kids but would have to think it looks better than the Oiler one.

    jmo.

  69. Lowetide says:

    Sean: This team needs players more than it needs positive press. I've never understood this positive press stuff, anyway. Oilers got a lot of bad press when they were winning Stanley's (SI, etc).

  70. 99thoilerfan says:

    Over at the nation, some heavy weights have killed and CBJ talk..

  71. Lowetide says:

    Good old Bob Stauffer. Well I believe it, he has big time connections (Howson) with the Blue Jackets.

    Oh well.

    Is Doug McLean GM anywhere? What about Phil Esposito?

  72. Bruce says:

    LT: Thanks. To be clearer, however: Can Ottawa afford Penner and Kovalev?

    We have 2/3 of the second line set (Gagner, O'Sullivan), and with some luck we could parlay Nilsson for a pick and bring in a cheap UFA (Kotalik, Sykora.. those guys) to round that line out.

    Is it unrealistic to think that Nilsson could take the second-line gig and skate with it? There's a reason they signed the guy to a three-year extension just last summer; does one admittedly disappointing season just wash all that away?

    Nilsson had just 9 goals and 29 points in 64 GP with intermittent hiatuses in the press box, but even with that shitty production he managed to keep his head above water (+1) by playing what I saw as a fairly responsible two-way game. Among Oiler forwards with 40+ GP, Nilsson ranked 6th in QualComp and 5th in QualTeam.

    When he's on — which he clearly needs to be more often — the guy is a real slick offensive player. I for one am reluctant to give up on yet another guy we just spent the last two years giving a bunch of at-bats.

  73. Chris says:

    Traktor said…
    I want Horcoff on this team more than I want Heatley and that says a lot.

    - Danny Heatley bringing the Oilogsphere together.

  74. Lowetide says:

    Bruce: Yeah, I'd think so. They're getting a 1.113M Cogliano and a Smid at just over 1, too. So that's probably a saving at two other slots.

    I understand Murray might want to go another direction now, but don't know if there IS another direction. I'd love to see another team enter the fray.

  75. 99thoilerfan says:

    I guess the question is, will any other teams, come up with something?

    Any chance of some kind of three way?

    Heatley to Oil, then to Sharks?

  76. Sean says:

    Bruce: Its not unrealistic but they better not go Penner-Nilsson. Thats 80 games of no-shows in the top 6.

    LT, I'll take back my positive press comment. But I still think this team needs a top-end PP and to ditch Penners contract. Plus when your top line is as dominant as I think HH&H would be the job of finding useful parts becomes much easier.

  77. bookie says:

    Is it unrealistic to think that Nilsson could take the second-line gig and skate with it? There's a reason they signed the guy to a three-year extension just last summer; does one admittedly disappointing season just wash all that away?

    I think that a lot of the judgments being made here are being made based upon last year. I personally think that MacT lost his mind last year and went mad scientist when he lost Reasoner and that a lot of players lost their stride because of it. I also think some guys were coming back from injury (Moreau at least) and others were in sophmoish slumps (Gags, Cogs, and maybe even Penner a bit). Add the goalie drama and the attempt to fit Cole in where he didn't fit.

    I just don't see last year as a measure of anything.

    Thus I have a higher opinion of the Oiler players than quite a few of the others here. I think Nilsson is an NHL level player and could be a good fit on the second line if we have HHH taking the hard minutes.

  78. bookie says:

    Any chance of some kind of three way?

    Heatley to Oil, then to Sharks?

    If I were the Oil, I would make the deal and then as soon as we made the Oil-Sens Deal, I would pull up and tell Heatley that we are reconsidering our trade with SJ…

  79. Lowetide says:

    The problem for Nilsson is that it was crowded before O'Sullivan came along (Gagner, Cogliano). Too many undersized skill forwards and this is coming from someone who likes them all.

  80. Bruce says:

    Yeah, I'd think so. They're getting a 1.113M Cogliano and a Smid at just over 1, too. So that's probably a saving at two other slots.

    Especially if they unload a contract like Gator's going the other way, which itself would pay for Cogs + Smid + a little more.

    What I wonder is, when do the Oilers say "enough"? Taking on $10 MM in new commitments against $6.5 going out, PLUS we need to sign another guy to fill a gap?

    We need another Moreau/Pisani/Staios contract like we need a hole in the head. Would yet another tip the balance on the '09-10 cap hit and force another trade, of a Grebs or a Gilbert or something? At what extreme point is Tambellini going to declare IT AIN'T FUCKING WORTH IT!

    Sorry for yelling, but all this cap mismanagement is getting real fucking irritating.

  81. 99thoilerfan says:

    "
    Heatley to Oil, then to Sharks?

    If I were the Oil, I would make the deal and then as soon as we made the Oil-Sens Deal, I would pull up and tell Heatley that we are reconsidering our trade with SJ…"

    I was just thinking of a way this log jam, could be broken open…

    If Heatley gets what he wants ( Off the SENS ),
    We get what we want ( Bye Penner )
    Then a roll him over to the Sharks.. Who could use a different look, after early exits lately…

    See anyone out there you would like ? Off which West coast Team?

  82. Lowetide says:

    Well we don't know Tambellini is doing this (including J Smith) but the Oilers clearly want this deal. We haven't heard a thing about UFA's and the Oilers since the Heatley deal reached the light of day.

    This is the summer right here.

  83. Gerta Rauss says:

    There's also the Hemsky contract issue. We've already blown 3 years of it; how many more?

    I think this is the motivating factor behind this whaling voyage.

    The Quinn hiring,the Khabibulin signing,the (apparent) desire to keep our top 4 D together,the (apparent) willingness to part with some of our youth in the Heatley deal.

    They want to capitalize on the last 3 years of the Hemsky cluster.

    Right or wrong can be argued,but this would explain a lot.

  84. Coach pb9617 says:

    I think this is the motivating factor behind this whaling voyage.

    BS.

    So the longboats were launched last year to harpoon Hossa, then Jagr, because there were only four years left?

    Yeah, I think it's more than Ahab can't help but be consumed by the pursuit.

  85. gogliano says:

    I'm a little conflicted on the Leafs situation.

    On the one hand, seeing the Leafs suffer–especially over having too big of mouths–is good. On the other hand, compensation to the vile Canucks is awful.

    Let's hope there is a solution that somehow punishes both teams.

  86. Gerta Rauss says:

    I think this is one of the motivating factors behind this whaling voyage

    I fixed it for you Coach.
    And I wanted to play with bolding and italics in the same sentence.

  87. spOILer says:

    Murray really downplaying the signing w.r.t. moving Heatley in the CP version of the story running on sportsnet.ca.

  88. HBomb says:

    Thank the lord. After Burke's bogus complaint about Lowe's comments on Perry being "tampering", Wilson causing them to get dinged a draft pick or two for his comments would be sweet, sweet irony.

  89. DBO says:

    So if the Heatley deal falls through, then who do we target? Chicago is now $4 mill from the cap, and need to sign versteeg (who should get near $4 mill). Next year that would put them at $43 million with only 12 guys signed, and they would need to sign Kane and Toews and Duncan Keith. they are ripe for a trade where we send them inexpensive players for stars.

    what about a deal for Patrick Sharp. he can play centre or wing, scores 30+ per year (only had 26 in 61 games this year), can kill penalties and is 6'1 and 195 lbs. On our team that's big.

    What about:
    Sharp
    for
    Pisani and a prospect.

    Saves them $1,4 mill this year, and almost $4 mill next year when they have to re sign guys. No way it could happen, but how about Keith and Sharp for Smid, Cogliano, Pisani and a 1st. i'd take it. They wouldn't be so dumb, but based on the last week who knows.

  90. DBO says:

    and not to mention San Jose who is royally screwed this year.they need to sign 6 players to fill their roster and only have $1 mill to do so (impossible). So who can we target non that team? right now cheechoo would cost you a prospect. Same wth Marleau (not that i want him).

  91. Asiaoil says:

    Looks like the Oil signed a goalie coach – Chabot from Hockey Canada – guess that's how he met Quinn. Young guy with a limited cv but I'm OK with it if he is one of the best up and comers. Still would have preferred Melanson – but it's nice to have someone with a real commitment to coaching finally instead of just keeping an old boy employed. We'll see how it goes but it may help our young guys a lot. Best line in his interview – something like "I like to make sure my goalies are hot and ready – very saucy Freddy :)

  92. PDO says:

    Toronto getting dinged with a pick would be too damn funny.

    Please god, please!

  93. Asiaoil says:

    I'd be willing to take Smith along with Heatley – but Smid becomes Staios and we throw in a draft pick like Petry.

    Penner, Cogs, Staios, Petry ($8.1 million)

    for

    Heatley and Smith ($10.1 million)

  94. PDO says:

    … and then we're outta that contract a year early.

    Excellent call AO, not sure if Ottawa goes for that though…

  95. Asiaoil says:

    That's the thought behind it PDO – Staios > Smith but Staios has the extra year so it's pretty much a wash. Petry gives them a young puck mover. Plus we can put Smith in the minors if necessary to start the year and then call him up if/when we suffer an injury. If he's picked up on waivers going down so be it – the contract is gone.

    If they want to include Smith then one of the Staios, Moreau or Nilsson goes the other way – don't really care which one.

  96. uni says:

    If the devalued Heatley only cost Penner, Smid, and Nilsson instead of Cogliano with Smith coming back the other way I'd not gripe.

    As it stands now, everyone who says Heatley will score 40 goals and be our saviour; why the heck wouldn't you want Penner and Cogs instead at 20 goals apeice, more depth, and 3.5 million less cap hit? You can even sign a complementary scorer with that cap savings if you want like a Kotalik for 2.7 for a year and add another 20 goals; that's 60 goals, you think Heater's going to get 60 this year and make up for the depth he'll cost us?

    Toss in a decent young D with 3 years of NHL development time and growing pains invested (that Ottawa will reap) and this trade isn't even remotely logical. That cap savings can even be spent on a 3rd C to give Horcoff relief which equals even more of a net gain without Heatley.

    If the Oilers were going for a championship or deep run now it'd make some sense, but they're not even close to that currently, so this trade for Heatley is completely illogical and detrimental.

  97. Oilman says:

    Why are 40 goals and a greater cap hit better than 60 goals on a contending team than this one?

  98. Yeti says:

    I really enjoy all the banter about reshaping the roster, but it seems to me the one thing that is repeatedly being overlooked by some posters is how Tambellini was stressing the difficulty of moving contracts. When justifying the Brodziak trade and the lack of other action he was at pains to stress this point: with cap uncertainty offloading contracts is most difficult this offseason. I don't understand quite how Calgary shifted Vandermeer, but this is the exception to prove the rule, not an indication of what all teams can do. So the talk of their being markets for players such as Nilsson, Staios, Penner, etc, is nothing but hyperbole. GMs aren't going to touch those contracts. As a consequence, the Oil aren't going to be able to swallow cap space from Ottawa to make the Heatly deal work – unless they are going to bury contracts in the minors. And that kind of thing sure would make Edmonton an even more desirable destination for players in the future…

  99. uni says:

    Oilman, I think the only way it even remotely approaches making sense is if you're a contending team looking for that one extra player to push you over the top. Assuming you have all the pieces in place, you trade off some of the future for one big ticket scorer that can make you that bit more dangerous.

    Something like the Penguins shipping out 3 players to get Hossa to put the Crosby line over the top. I don't think the Oilers qualify to be at that point (no killer 2nd line and good scoring from the 3rd line already). Also Heatley is not Hossa (obviously).

    Ottawa should have signed Hossa to a 12 years at 6 million contract when they had the chance and never traded him hee hee.

  100. Woodguy says:

    NHL.COM is reporting that Gustavsson (Monster goalie) is signing with the Leaves.

    1 year $810,000 + $90,000 signing bonus.

    Don't see it anywhere else yet…

  101. Oilman says:

    I understand the reasoning – I just fail to see where 40 goals is better than 60 in any situation.

    I think the thing that is hoped for is that you may get 40 goals out of Heatley and 10 to 15 goals apiece extra out of Horcoff/Hemsky.

  102. bookie says:

    The other thing to remember is that when any single player scores the same as two players, his pointe per minute are much higher and someone else is still on the ice for the 'other' time and may pop in 15 goals. So you replace penner with Heatley and gain 10+ goals, and then you replace Cogs with Mr. X who gets 15 goals (loss of 10 goals), but maybe wins a few more faceoffs.

    You need to remember Mr. X.

  103. Dennis says:

    Murray said yesterday that the Oilers remain "quite interested" in Heatley.

    So, there you go.

  104. DBO says:

    I think the org just made a decision on cogs. I've been talking about it for months, that we can't have both Cogs and gagner, and that at some point we'd have to choose. They chose gagner. While i agree about the youth and depth we lose, i think you'll have to look at the deal across the board when the maneuvering is finally done, since Heatley coming over with another contract means we have to pmove more salary (like Souray, Gilbert etc.), and then replace them with cheaper veteran options. For example, here's one scenario:

    out: Cogs, Penner, Smid, Nilsson and Souray = $13.65
    In: Heatley, Jason Smith, Goc/Betts ($750k), Kotalik ($1.5), Simmonds (from LA for Souray)=$13.5

    Kotalik can be resigned for cheap and brings similar scoring to Penner. Heatley obviously is an upgrade on anything we have, but losing Souray hurts. our d gets weaker, our forwards get better. And to be honest, while Heatley's deal hampers us for a hile, Smith comes off the books nest year, as does Pisani and say Kotalik on a one year. Gives us a lot of cap space next year, and the only guy we need to resign is Gagner. That does make it more palatable.

  105. anonymous says:

    We traded Pronger for one player and 4 prospects (smid@ahl + 3 picks). I could see a Heatley package with 3 "players" OR a package with Cogs. But Cogs in a 3 "player" deal is an overpay with huge upside for Ottawa and little downside???

    If they insist on doing this at least LISTEN to Daly and freeze this until Ottawa grieves the $4M. Why give Ottawa precious cap space when Daly's hinting the remediation might allow the new team to refund the bonus. That resets the clock to July 1 and no need to sweeten this bad deal.

  106. Sean says:

    If the Oilers were going for a championship or deep run now it'd make some sense, but they're not even close to that currently, so this trade for Heatley is completely illogical and detrimental.

    The Oilers weren't close in 2004 before they acquired Pronger either. Its about improving the team one move at a time. If you think Heatley improves the team I fail to see why its completely illogical and detrimental.

  107. DBO says:

    on a different note. if the rumour of Heatley to Columbus are true, I will laugh my ass off. Heatley demands a trade, and the only 2 teams to step up are the Oil and the Blue Jackets. No glitz or glamour, no sexy chicks in bikinis, no centre of the universe city. LOL. makes me smile to know that if Heatley does not come here (which based on all the talk is not a bad thing for most oiler fans) he will be buried in the mid west where no one will know his name. if he wants anonymity, he'll have it. It'll come down to Edmonton is a better city, but way more attention on heatley. or Columbus, where he'll blend in and no one will know his name.

  108. uni says:

    Sean: I think it's illogical and detrimental to add Heatley at this time because what Heatley does bring to the table (elite complementary goal scorer) isn't enough to offset the strain his salary puts on the Oilers salary cap, the detriment to team depth in the players being traded for him and the restriction on getting addition players the team needs that his salary causes, and lastly because I think the players being traded for him are worth much more to the Oilers than he is.

    But that's just my opinion.

  109. Asciutto says:

    So if the Heatley deal falls through, then who do we target?

    Kessel.
    He’s hated, but available and a goal scorer
    Fewer assets out and a lower salary

    Is it unrealistic to think that Nilsson could take the second-line gig and skate with it?

    Cap space.
    Its unrealistic to think that with Heatley on board, the Oilers can ice a $5,800,000 Second line, and a $5,325,000 Checking line, and a $3,500,000 Third pairing….

    And it's nice to get rid of 27's deal and I'm not as big on 5 as some others.

    But, you're picking up a pricey and bonafide arsehole and those guys are a lot like leopards.

    Low-key
    Winner of the funniest comment award.

  110. uni says:

    Oh and as for Pronger, I think everyone will agree that when that trade happened he was a heck of a lot better player than Heatley (a complete player), his salary was a bargain at 6.25 for 5 years, and the trade cost in 1 good defenceman and 2 that couldn't make the cut and picks was very good value.

    If 2005 level Pronger at 6.25 million for 5 years were to cost Penner, Cogliano, and Smid I'd not gripe about that deal.

  111. bookie says:

    if he wants anonymity, he'll have it. It'll come down to Edmonton is a better city, but way more attention on heatley. or Columbus, where he'll blend in and no one will know his name.

    I have never been to Columbus, but the population is about double that of Edmonton (including the central metro area) and as such, I wonder why Edmonton is the 'better city'? I guess that statement is fair if you have been there, but otherwise, I would suggest that it is geocentric to automatically suggest that our city is better…

  112. bookie says:

    Edmoncentric? Topocentric? Something like that anyway – essentially the assumption that your home city is better than other places…"I grew up in the best small town in the best province in the best country in the whole wide world"

  113. DBO says:

    i wish I could spell.

    bookie: of course we're a better city. be proud!

    On a serious note I have been there, very vanilla city, nothing big about it. Which may be exactly what Heatley wants. i think it'll come down to whether he wants to be the centre of attention, or whether he wants to hide and be left alone (which at this point may be exactly what he wants).

  114. ian says:

    Given the track track record of Dany Heatley, if the Oilers do in fact sign him I think we might be OK with him for the rest of his contract term.
    I think he is finding out that despite his ability not that many teams are falling over themselves to get him [that's got hurt the old ego a bit]It is fairly clear that for whatever reason he has developed a reputation of being a quitter of teams.
    To rehab his reputation he really needs to stick with his next club whoever it is, so I think it could be good for the Oilers if it works out.
    Is there a third line centre on Ottawa that could be worked into the deal if we have to take more back?

  115. Steve says:

    Its unrealistic to think that with Heatley on board, the Oilers can ice a $5,800,000 Second line, and a $5,325,000 Checking line, and a $3,500,000 Third pairing….

    That's exactly it. If you're going to get superstars for your top line (and pay them like superstars), then you have to fill the rest of your roster with a combination of promising prospects and cheap actual NHL players. We've got the promising prospects, but our actual NHL players are too expensive for us to splurge on the top line.

    If we can snap our fingers and replace Nilsson, Moreau, Staios, and Pisani with guys making about $1 million each for comparable ability, I'm suddenly much more enthusiastic about getting Heatley.

  116. DBO says:

    ian: good question about the 3rd line centre. Chris kelly might fit the bill, has a cap hit just over $2 mill for 3 years. He's nothing to sneeze at, but not exactly a star. Not sure about his corsi, etc., but he's cheaper then some 3rd liners have went for in UFa world, is only 28, has speed and some grit so he might be ok. However it is a cap hit going forward. Whereas Jason Smith comes off the books after the year.

  117. oilswell says:

    "What are the chances that Cogliano develops into a player anywhere near as good as Heatley?"

    Not too good I don't think. While their respective 19yo college years seems comparable, not a lot else looks the same. They both look pretty incomplete as players. Lowetide's something of a savant at the tracking game, but I don't see how to look at them and argue Cogliano tracks near to Heatley.

    From solely a value point of view I think the deal is probably good. Cogliano is not about to fill Heatley's shoes any time soon. Penner is probably overpaid as much as Heatley is, so you're looking at upgrading to a top line player by putting together Cogliano and Penner and extras. If they can replace the player internally without losing much, how do you not trade 3-for-1 for a top tier player? The Visnovsky deal was also smart for a very similar reason.

    That's not to say it's a deal I welcome. A trade in risk, and it's certainly overpay though from a market analysis point of view, as we just know the Oilers will pay more than they need to (see: Khabibulin). Plus it is arguably silly from a cap management point of view to invest that percentage of the cap with UFA market salary for a complementary player such as Heatley.

  118. Master Lok says:

    In homage to The Warrior…

    To the guys that are completely against Heatley coming here… when he pot's 40+ goals this season… do you really think you will still be so down on him?

    Prediction: Heatley will not get 40 goals playing for the Oilers. Horcoff and Gagner is not Spezza. Playing in Edmonton won't inspire Heatley to new heights when we have to beat him with a tire iron to come here.

    There's also the Hemsky contract issue. We've already blown 3 years of it; how many more?

    Hemsky isn't Lidstrom. Or Crosby. Or Zetterberg. So far, Hemsky isn't a guy who I think will lead the Oil to the Cup if only we sacrifice all of our prospects to surround him with talented veterans.

    What are the chances that Cogliano develops into a player anywhere near as good as Heatley?

    That's not the right question. What are the chances that Cogliano, Smid and Penner, at their cap hits, will contribute to the team winning more than $7.5 million unhappy Dany Heatley? That's the question.

    Is it unrealistic to think that Nilsson could take the second-line gig and skate with it?

    Yes. Tambellini brought in O'Sullivan, and he will give POS more chances than Nilsson will get.

    Is there a GM in the NHL with the stones to trade full value tonight for Dany Heatley? I'd bet money Dany Heatley is an Oiler in the near future.

    Oh and LT, I might just take that bet. Define "near future". While it certainly looks like Tambo is desperate to be Heatley's boytoy, I'm guessing that Murray was serious when he wanted *MORE* for Heatley after the $4 million deadline, not Less. At least he will try for a while first and I suspect will leave Dany hanging in the wind for a while.

    Remember Miro Satan?

    Excellent point LT. It's not what Cogliano looked like yesterday that matters, but what he looks like tomorrow. What does it matter that Cogliano's faceoff is 37% last season? Do you expect that to continue for the rest of his career? Are you SO ready to set the limit of Cogliano's potential? At age 21?

    I'm a lot more certain of how Heatley will perform in Edmonton, than I am how Cogliano will.

  119. mc79hockey says:

    What are the chances that Cogliano, Smid and Penner, at their cap hits, will contribute to the team winning more than $7.5 million unhappy Dany Heatley?

    Why are we assuming that he would be unhappy?

  120. Oilmaniac says:

    Great points Master Lok,..

  121. Oilmaniac says:

    Another summer spent chasing the pretty girl,.. losing out on all the truth value deals that are/were out there… such a dissapointment for those of us that would have been happy with a decent 3c, a banger (or two), and some off loads…

  122. NBOilerFan says:

    mc79hockey said…
    Why are we assuming that he would be unhappy?

    I'm wondering the same thing.

  123. Oilman says:

    What are the chances that Cogliano, Smid and Penner, at their cap hits, will contribute to the team winning more than $7.5 million unhappy Dany Heatley?

    That unhappy Pronger sure was a dud wasn't he.

  124. Steve says:

    That unhappy Pronger sure was a dud wasn't he.

    I had the impression that he enjoyed playing here (until the fans started setting fire to his furniture, at least), but that his wife hated it.

  125. Oilman says:

    Steve, are you married? Ever heard the expression "happy Wife, Happy life?"

  126. Dennis says:

    Oilman: Have you ever head the expression, "don't marry an old snatch and you won't have so many worries."?

    :D

  127. mc79hockey says:

    I think that those are basically the same saying.

  128. uni says:

    If the Oilers complete the trade for Heatley I may become as jaded as Dennis. I'm starting to understand how his pessimistic view on the Oilers came about. Also I'm sick of talking about Heatley.

    I'm very intrigued by the Leafs this off-season. Mostly due to my curiosity about Gustavsson and if he'll live up to all the hype and be the next Backstrom, or the next Norrena. Also want to see how the logjam on the Leafs ("Wow we have a lot of defencemen!") backend is relieve and if they can add any scoring.

    Leafs might be a fun team to watch next season if Wilson continues to put to the fear of the AHL or worse into them and continued retooling before camp breaks. I think I can still do without all the Leaf fans on the GO train from work though.

  129. Ribs says:

    How about "Impregnate Christy, leave town swiftly"?

    Nice to see CFP filling the Hatcher void in Philly.

  130. Oilman says:

    That's not the only void he'll be filling…ba dump ching!

  131. Oilman says:

    no one marries an old snatch Dennis – they just evolve

  132. Sean says:

    Uni: If its your opinion that Heatley is simply a better version of Lupul then your argument is totally fair. I think he's better.

    I remember when we signed Pronger back in the summer of 2005. It was considered a risk because we thought the cap was going down. I personally don't think the PA or the NHL will let the cap go down. They'll find a way to spin the numbers.

  133. Bruce says:

    Hemsky isn't Lidstrom. Or Crosby. Or Zetterberg. So far, Hemsky isn't a guy who I think will lead the Oil to the Cup if only we sacrifice all of our prospects to surround him with talented veterans.

    Master Lok: I agree with this. I don't think Hemsky = Hossa let alone the other guys you named, and Hossa couldn't win even when surrounded with talented mates in Ottawa, Pittsburgh and Detroit (I'll give him a pass for Atlanta).

    What are the chances that Cogliano, Smid and Penner, at their cap hits, will contribute to the team winning more than $7.5 million unhappy Dany Heatley?

    Forget about "unhappy" and ponder the rest of the question. While you're at it, forget about Cogliano's 37% winning percentage as you say, and forget about Heatley's 180 goals since the lockout. It is all about future value.

    Except … Heatley comes with the price tag established by past performance. The others (Penner possibly excepted) are still in the process of establishing that price tag, thus it is they who stand the greater chance of outperforming.

  134. Smytty777 says:

    What are the flyers thinking with that contract to Pronger? My reading of the CBA is that they just gave a 7 year contract to an over 35 year old player. Ridiculous.

  135. Oilman says:

    Pronger is 34 isn't he?

  136. Smytty777 says:

    He is 35 in October and is under contract for this season. His new deal does not kick in until next year when he will be over 35. I think the CBA is based off a players age on June 30th of the year that the contract kicks in (i.e. next year) for his new deal

  137. Oilman says:

    Hopefully Philly doesn't understand the CBA either:o)

  138. NBOilerFan says:

    The question now is who will give in first and how long before they do?

    How long does Tambs play this game before he decides enough is enough and puts Plan B into action (goodness I hope plan be is a 2L LW and a 3LC).

    Or how long does Heatley wait to see if Edmonton pulls out or if another team immerges?

    My concern being that pehaps Heatley's camp decides that if they wait long enough, and the Oilers blink first, that the offer will be pulled which will open the door for more "lesser" deals from more desirable places. However, this can back-fire in a PR sense and Murray still holds the big stick in deciding that the "lesser" deals are simply not enough.

    Get comfortable… because this could be a long ride.

  139. Doogie2K says:

    Just so we're clear, Pronger is a Flyer until just short of his 43rd birthday?

    That's delightful.

  140. Smarmy Boss says:

    Philly is the gift that keeps on giving. Hatcher left a gigantic douche void on the philly backend. Luckily, Pronger is there to hold it down for several years.

  141. danny says:

    Except … Heatley comes with the price tag established by past performance. The others (Penner possibly excepted) are still in the process of establishing that price tag, thus it is they who stand the greater chance of outperforming.

    The inflation on younger players contracts the past few seasons has made that strategy less than perfect though. For every previously unproven outperformer i'd wager theres as many or more that need more time to grow into their salary (Penner for example).
    Some never will. GMs are now paying for potential. We will see this with Gagner and Coglianos contracts next season.

    The only guys you will get true outperforming value now are bluechippers like Malkin/Crosby for the 3 years they are on their entry level, and older guys that have a little left but arent salary-cap-monger-worthy (Reasoner in ATL for example)

    Hoping to get outperforming consistently from guys on their 2nd contracts IMO is a doomed approach. Maybe if you are 100% on these guys and sign them to extended length deals. Although sometimes you can be standing at the altar and waaaaaiting for the payoff (see Hemsky had he signed a contract at todays value)

    Heatley had a bad season on a struggling team. Prior to that the guy was facing toughs, in the high 20s in es+/-…

    You simply don't get guys like that to outperform their contract unless a) you're Ken Holland, or b) you get a #1 pick overall on a generational talent.

    I think with both Cogs and Gags, we will see contracts north of $4M next season. If the contracts are 3 years, then i sincerely doubt either outperform their contract until the final season. Should they do that, theyre into the next tier of money yet again.

    If you want to lock Gags or Cogs into years beyond their UFA seasons you get into premium dollars, and get very little return on the early years.

    Considering both of those guys overlap somewhat, I'm honestly ok with flipping Cogs for a 50 goal scorer.

  142. Master Lok says:

    mc79hockey
    Why are we assuming that he would be unhappy?

    Well… I guess it does appear to be premature to assume that he will be unhappy. But it should be obvious that Dany isn't exactly jumping for joy that Edmonton wants him. And if he should come to Edmonton, I can certainly see a future where he would request a trade in the near (after one season) future.

    That unhappy Pronger sure was a dud wasn't he.

    I get the feeling that Pronger
    a) enjoyed the hockey atmosphere, dressing room etc. in Edmonton fine.
    b) may prove to be more professional and mature than Dany Heatley.
    c) smarter than Dany. Certainly looking at his latest contract, that's a good deal for him.

    Bruce:
    Except … Heatley comes with the price tag established by past performance

    Exactly. He's getting paid 7.5 million for the next 5? years because he scored he was a 50 goal scorer in Ottawa playing with Spezza. in Edmonton, I suspect it will be a bit different playing with Horcoff or Gagner, in the Western Conference. And I always thought Alfredsson was Ottawa's best player.

    What type of player will Cogliano become? Considering he's scored 18 and 18 goals in his 20th and 21st year, is it inconceivable that he could be a 30 goal scorer? Or is he really Todd Marchant II? Todd Marchant scored 19 goals when he was 22. And then had years of 14, 14, 14, 17, 13, 12, 20…

  143. kris says:

    I'm with Danny on this 'outperforming contracts' meme.

    I mean, we all agree that Cogliano is not a very valuable player right now. Like LT says, he's not an 'actual' NHL player. Sure, there's lots of talent there: great speed, some beauty goals. But he makes mistakes, offense goes missing for games at a time, can't play center, etc.

    So sure, he gets paid little on his entry level deal, but then again in terms of helping win games, he's not worth much more than what he's paid.

    Unfortunately, by the time he gets better, he'll command a much bigger contract. And by the time he's 28 or so, and hopefully destroying the toughs, he'll be demanding an overpay.

    Really, there's no reason to think Cogliano will ever outperform a contract.

    Looking at the rest of the deal, Penner clearly is an overpay, and Smid doesn't have a contract, though it's likely he'll be paid fairly.

    Near as I can tell, Heatley is overpaid, at the most, by 1MM/year. That's hardly a serious problem cap wise.

    Now, don't get me wrong. You do need to have some young guys on entry level deals making a contribution, especially when injuries hit. And you need some vet free agents making less than 1.5 sprinkled in the lineup. (We've got some young cheap players: Gagner, Peckham, Stortini, Pouliot. We need a couple of cheaper vets…)

    I think the debate over the Heatley trade should really be about how good Heatley is. If he comes here, plays with Hemmer and Horc, scores 45-50 goals, and outscores at the rate he has in the past for the next 3-4 years, it's pretty hard to say it wasn't worth it, even if Cogs develops well. If he comes here and scores 35, 40, 38, and struggles PVP, then the critics are right. I think past performance shows that he's likely to dominate playing on our top line and the deal is not a bad one.

  144. Master Lok says:

    Oh Lowetide, my Eastside Hockey Manager compares Sam Gagner to a young Daniel Alfredsson. Is that a good comparison? Alfredsson was 23 in his first NHL year, and he scored 61 pts.

  145. Master Lok says:

    Kris:
    I'm with Danny on this 'outperforming contracts' meme.

    Actually Kris, my problem with Heatley is not just his contract. It's the combination of $7.5 million contract, plus 5 more years, plus giving assets to get him, plus he's clearly not wanting to come to Edmonton. If Dany Heatley was available as a UFA, and we could sign him for $7.5 million without giving up any assets, and he wanted to come here… I'd be all over that.

  146. kris says:

    ML:

    1. Nobody "wants" to come to Edmonton. :) But many are willing to play here. Visnovsky didn't, and I would bet still doesn't, want to be here. If Heatley grudgingly accepts being here, that's good enough.

    2. We would be getting rid of Penner's overpaid contract, too. The contract stuff is a bit more of a wash than you're implying.

    3. Relating to point 1., if the Oilers want an offensive superstar to play with Hemsky, he has to be got by trade. (Or through the draft, which means blowing up the team to get lottery picks.) We've tried signings. Hasn't worked and it won't.

    I'd have rather we signed Gaborik to that 7.5 million deal, too. (Another overpay.) But he didn't sign here. Why do you suppose that is? Do you think Tamb. didn't offer 7.6 MM for him?

  147. Traktor says:

    "I mean, we all agree that Cogliano is not a very valuable player right now."

    I don't agree at all.

    18 goals in exchange for 1.1 million dollars – good luck finding better value on this pathetic team.

    The only bloody forward who scored more goals last year was Hemsky.

    "Like LT says, he's not an 'actual' NHL player."

    Don't believe everything you read.

  148. hunter1909 says:

    I've always thought that "no one wants to play for Edmonton" is a lot of bunk, unless factoring in a trophy wife who clearly won't fit in on the tundra.

    Winter isn't all that much better or worse anywhere. I've spent a winter in Toronto, Edmonton, and the biggest city of all. For the money they're paid, and the fact no one is forced to live anywhere during the offseason, I just don't buy it.

    No one on the other hand, wants to move to a loser organisation. A team perpetually stuck in neutral, where players seemingly arrive with smiles and leave as often or not with bigger ones, thanks to poor coaching and management overall.

  149. Traktor says:

    I'm raising the stakes..

    Cogliano will score 35 goals next year. Mark it down.

    If you thought I was redundant about 10 just wait until Cogs starts lighting the lamp every 2nd game.

  150. danny says:

    Traktor, Cogliano surrendered more than he scored, against soft opposition. Its moot if he scored 30 last season while we are discussing Cogliano being an NHLer that helps win games.

    Scoring 18 suggests that he may become a higher end scorer, and as most young players develop a better defensive game. He could be a good one.

    As for now though, in true sense of outperforming and providing value, look no further than Reasoner. He scored fewer goals, however surrendered less than he generated, played against toughs and clearly outperformed his contract.

    Cogliano offers promise, not value right now. He had a good year and covered the bet, which is what we want from a player his age.

  151. kris says:

    Traktor:

    Now, I'm a Cogs fan mind you. He's going to get better.

    And I see that he scored a few, but he didn't exactly best the opposition, which would've been valuable in terms of winning games.

    He played weak competition, Qual Comp. -0.036, and came out a little in the red in plus-minus/60min. Not good when the other teams poorer players are outscoring you.

    And even though he was the nominal 3rd line center, he wasn't defensively good enough, or good enough on draws, to take draws and start shifts in his own end. As Vic has shown with his zoneshift numbers, that is a big, big negative. If you start your shifts in the other team's end, you're going to do well, and you should do very well playing against weaker players.

    Granted, Cogs had to carry Moreau around for a lot of the year, but he also had some Pisani time. That's a wash, IMO.

    But, I'll give in a bit, Cogs does provide more value than his cap hit, just not much more. By the time he improves, let's say next year, he'll demand a bigger contract: maybe fair value, maybe an overpay, depending on where he develops from there.

  152. NBOilerFan says:

    Traktor said…
    I'm raising the stakes..

    Cogliano will score 35 goals next year. Mark it down.

    Playing on a wing with Spezza and Alfredson… yes, he might get 35.

    :D

  153. spOILer says:

    Traktor…

    Cogs very slightly bled goals and shots last year playing with below average against below average.

    -.06 per 60 at EVs — a few tiny centimetres away from treading water, one toe nail still scraping against the last vestige of the shallow end. But at his level. The team did only did slightly better with him out of the pool.

    That's impressive in a 21 yo only 2 years into his career. He's tracking wonderfully.

    So it's expected he'll be an out-scorer next year against average players with an outside chance of being an out-scorer against above average.

    I'd call him likely to be an actual NHL player going into next season, although I don't know for sure obviously, but the odds are pretty good. I'm also not sure how LT measures "actual". I'm going here with someone who doesn't bleed net goals against half the pack. He lacks experience but seems to have smarts, and he seems the most poised out of the kids when he displays his penchant for game-winners and OT heroics.

    But Heatley has all of that in spades. It's going to be a while before Cogs outscores against good comp like Heatley has.

    And with the signing of Quinn, Renney, and Khabib, the Oiler Mgt is clearly in win-now mode.

    Cogs is replicated throughout the depth chart in terms of size and approximate skill level (each prospect brings something different). And we have to give one thing likely to be pretty good to get something really good now.

    There's no room to move up at centre. FOs aren't a skill where we usually see much improvement over a player's career. He seemingly won't play wing…

    I think he's a great player, but if we are in win-now mode, then Heatley is good deal to make.

  154. spOILer says:

    Oh I see Kris and Danny have already taken care of this.

    *smiles sheepishly*

    Okay, different angle:

    And hey, didn't the dressing room learn how to handle a Pouter last year?

    …The White Elephant in the Room… Dunkin Dustin.

    Now wouldn't you trade a high maintenance White Elephant for a White Whale? Elephants are much too sensitive creatures and harbour grudges forever.

    Moby has tremendous size and ferocity… White Elephant has zero. Moby will kill Ahab. Elephant does have an Ahab to his credit, maybe only a partial Ahab. Moby swims around unattended, carefree, goes where it likes. Elephant needs pampering and constant supply of donuts. I thinking of naming it Oprah.

    Moby scores 50 goals. Elephant's goal is 50 smores.

  155. PDO says:

    I see all this "Dany doesn't help us win the cup" stuff…

    … what about just being a good team again that can actually, you know, make the playoffs?

    As much as I'm not advocating being yearly first round fodder like Calgary; it's a heck of a lot better than not even making it to the dance.

    And you have to get there before you can get to a point of making a move for a serious run at the cup.

  156. Lowetide says:

    I'd be fine with Heatley on the Oilers. Really. He's a terrific player.

  157. PDO says:

    LT:

    Would you be fine if it was O'Sullivan instead of Cogliano?

  158. Lowetide says:

    Yes. O'Sullivan is farther along and we know what he is, and he's certainly got value.

    Cogliano two years from now may not be as good as O'Sullivan is now, but I'm much rather he's an Oiler for those two seasons.

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