A Note About Reasonable Expectations

I think about writing this every year and rarely do but it’s important so here goes.

When I post “reasonable expectations” I’m taking a guess at what said player will do next season. Basically it’s a matter of slotting a player on the depth chart, guessing at how strong his hold is on that spot, doing a three year average of his numbers and then tweaking the math until it boils.

It is not my own personal preference or stubborn belief (Hemsky aside) it’s a guideline based on current wisdom re: roster makeup, guesses as to who might emerge, and a steady climb in the right direction until age 28 which is following by the downslope.

So, when we’re talking about reasonable expectations and we see this:

  • Harping on Schremp is just fine and dandy but seeing the same people list Pouliot as the 3rd line C and Gagner as our savior is just fucking ridiculous

we can know with confidence that some among us are missing the point. The idea of “reasonable expectations” is to put a line in the sand, a marker in the water, to have something to go by during the regular season.

Should Marc Pouliot be put and waivers and sent down without being claimed it doesn’t change his “reasonable expectation” for this season but is rather a tell about player and season. On the other hand, should Rob Schremp make the team and score 20 goals well that’s a tell too.

It’s my experience over the years that without “reasonable expectations” or “lines in the sand” true steps forward have a short shelf life followed quickly by expectations. That’s maybe a little of what happened to Robert Nilsson along the way. It means this is a guess at the middle of expectations, nothing more. The key comes during the season when the report card comes in every few nights in 82 equal pieces.

So, we list Pouliot at 3C because it’s the most reasonable conclusion. Putting Brule there would be unfair to him, especially if he earns it during the season by passing Pouliot on the depth chart.

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52 Responses to "A Note About Reasonable Expectations"

  1. Dallas says:

    Whoever posted that comment is not too bright. Gagner may or may not be our savior this year. But mark my words he will be a superstar in his own right and pass Hemsky on the depth chart. Anyone who knows anything bout hockey can just watch him on the ice and see that the puck follows the kid around. That only happens with great players watch that 3 goal game of his last year he absolutely dominated in that game and I expect alot more of those from him in the near future. Dave Gagner was a very good player in his days and Sam will be 10times the player his pops was mark my words.

  2. kris says:

    Well said, LT.

    The reasonable expectations for Pouliot and Schremp ought to be pretty far apart at this point.

    The latter has been struggling at the AHL level, while the former has seen mixed and modest results in the bigs. Big difference there.

    Moreover, they're very different kinds of players. Schremp's hands give him a bigger upside if he can solve all his other problems, but if he can't solve his other problems he's most likely a big liability 5×5.

    Pouliot, on the other hand, 'doesn't own a dominant quality' -I think I read that phrase used to describe Schremp- but he's shown that he can play at least a 4th line roll, filling in on higher lines when needed. Versatile in the lineup.

  3. Promethian says:

    1. Whoever states their opinion on the internet is a target. Those who run a populated blog are even more of a target. Internet creates smart guys and tough guys left right and centre. IMO, no need to defend yourself.

    2. MAP WILL be the 3rd line C, WILL outplay his contract, WILL be better than Sugarteets, and WILL NOT be a total draft bust. I have no numbers to prove this, nor do I claim to be a professional scout, I just think he'll get it together. Some may think you're off the mark on Poo but I don't. He'll be fine.

    3. I may be a draft pedigree sucker, but I believe that Brule will become a bonafide NHLer. People I know in BC (saw 'em good-ers) rave about him from his time with the Giants. Man, if he was just 2" taller. 4C is not out of the reach at all here.

    For me, cheap vets are not the answer. I think you can get the same or perhaps better with say Brule over Betts for example. Keep it in the family. Make those "actual NHLers" yourself. It takes time, but, by that time, we are getting closer to the end of the Lowe-era contracts anyways.

  4. Black Dog says:

    Interesting that O'Sullivan has basically said that he has no interest in playing centre.

    Man this team is a mess up front. Unbalanced.

    If they don't move someone somewhere they will have Cogliano or O'Sullivan centring Pisani and Moreau. Bad news either way. If Pouliot gets that spot then you have to figure one of the kids bumped to the fourth line or waived (I'm thinking Nilsson here).

    I'm thinking not so good. I think Pouliot might get a new lease for life under Quinn but that's because I'm an optimist. I can't see this club being a playoff club with Moreau and any of these guys playing tough minutes unless every single kid makes a big leap forward and Khabibulin plays lights out.

  5. Fake Craig McTavish says:

    I've been following your reasonable expectations for a while now LT and your instincts are generally pretty good.

    I've also been following your point projections and find you're generally about 10 percent too high (the homer factor) *post pic here*, which is fine because you are also a fan.

    So, I'm curious about why you have Horcoff pegged for 47 points which even a dedicated doubter like me finds to be a little light. If the 10 percent factor applies here, we're looking at a 42 point first line centre which may set some league records.

    Are you just hedging your bets or expecting a move down in the lineup?

  6. the 0 in 0rca is for 0 cups says:

    the schremp experiment needs an end. i saw the kid play in the first exhibition game after the lock-out and get first star. give him the first 10 games. we haven't picked up ANY forwards anyway. OR defence.

    as far as reasonable expectations, how about we guess which pony we're gonna bet on getting in the next off season. this, of course, after we tell everybody in the league who we're going for and then we don't get them.

    do we get jagr?

  7. delooper says:

    Re Horcoff, I think LT assumes Horcoff will be playing with less offensively-talented players this year.

  8. Lowetide says:

    FCM: My Horcoff projection is based on his role on this team. Which is basically toughest opponent, own-zone faceoffs and (imo) a massive cutback in PP time this season.

    I don't think Horcoff hits 50 points unless the Oilers make a trade and at some point he'll lose Hemsky to a softer minutes line.

  9. Fake Craig McTavish says:

    Lowetide said…
    FCM: My Horcoff projection is based on his role on this team. Which is basically toughest opponent, own-zone faceoffs and (imo) a massive cutback in PP time this season.

    I don't think Horcoff hits 50 points unless the Oilers make a trade and at some point he'll lose Hemsky to a softer minutes line.

    And I expect you're right LT. And then you're looking at a traditional, protoypical 3rd line centre in the vein of Pahlsson.

    I expect I don't need to fill in the rest.

  10. Ribs says:

    Guy has some great updates over at the Pipe.

  11. mc79hockey says:

    And I expect you're right LT. And then you're looking at a traditional, protoypical 3rd line centre in the vein of Pahlsson.

    With twice as much offence. Who's also an averagish PP player.

  12. Mr DeBakey says:

    Man this team is a mess up front. Unbalanced.

    Its easy to improve though.

    With Dom Moore at $1.1mm,
    this line-up has about $850,000 Cap room:

    Nilsson – Horcoff -Pisani
    O'Sullivan -Gagner -Hemsky
    Penner -Moore -Cogliano
    Moreau -Pouliot -Stortini
    Jacques, Reddox
    Visnovsky – Grebeshkov
    Gilbert -Souray
    Smid – Staios
    Strudwick
    Khabibulin, Deslauriers

    That's not ideal,
    But it feels a lot better.

  13. Alice says:

    At least we're off El Schremp. I thought LT was just going to make us wallow in that thread for a few days and go to the beach, the sadist. But he let us off the hook before we consumed ourselves in a Death Spiral of Fear & Loathing.

    Which means we're back on the hobby horse named Horcoff.

    At least until Quinn loses the room,

  14. Fake Craig McTavish says:

    Ah Tyler, the difference between 20 points and 40 leaves you a lot of change from $5.5M.

  15. HBomb says:

    I guess I'm not the only one who can connect the dots.

    Doesn't make it a good idea in the least.

    The Oilers best bet for success still is a power-vs-power line of Penner-Horcoff-Hemsky. Second place goes to O'Sullivan-Horcoff-Pisani as the de-facto 2nd line playing the toughs.

    Everytime I hear the idea of a Moreau-Horcoff-Pisani "checking" line, I want to scream. Moreau can't hack that gig, and it's a waste of one of our only two legitimate first-line forwards.

    And if you're not going to take my word for it, take JW's. Do the math on Horcoff's post-lockout points per game, and it translates to 65 points over an 82 game season. In other words, a middle-of-the-road first liner. A lot better than anyone else on this team not named "Ales", that's for certain.

  16. Gord says:

    Ironically, your reasonable expectation "line in the sand" for Horcoff's points is exactly the number I have for Grebeshkov this year…

    A year ago I stated Grebeshkov's reasonable expectation in 2008/09 was 5 goals & 30 assists…. ;-)

    I'm expecting 12 goals & 35 assists if Greb's plays 82 games…

  17. Ribs says:

    I've got it figured out, guys.

    Horcoff-Horcofff-Horcoff
    Horcoff-Horcofff-Horcoff
    Horcoff-Horcofff-Horcoff
    Horcoff-Horcofff-Horcoff

    Plan the parade.

  18. Fake Craig McTavish says:

    Ribs said…
    I've got it figured out, guys.

    Horcoff-Horcofff-Horcoff
    Horcoff-Horcofff-Horcoff
    Horcoff-Horcofff-Horcoff
    Horcoff-Horcofff-Horcoff

    Plan the parade.

    You'll keep your head above water at evens and lose every game on special teams.

  19. Ed says:

    and you're over the cap

  20. Voxwah says:

    Didn't the Oilers have their best success the last couple of years with Penner Horc and Hemmer all playing together.

    It seemed to me that only when MacT started getting creative and broke up their line did all of their production suffer.

    I know Hemmer performed best with Penner on the left side.

    Without a trade Dustin is still the best option.

  21. Ribs says:

    Ed – Horc already has his big paycheque, he'll take less to play all of the other positions.

    FCM – But we'll win every faceoff?

  22. Hockey Noob says:

    I hate to be the one to make an observation, but I noticed that the quote about Schremp was from Traktor. He was a regular comment poster over here at LT. It seems like he erased two comments on this thread, then closed his blogger profile?

  23. mc79hockey says:

    We disagree on Horcoff FCM. For one, he has a much broader role at ES than does Pahlsson and, even if he's into a "checking" role, I still see him leading the team in ES TOI for the next few years. He's also going to play some sortof a role on teh PP.

    I think LT's projection is a bit conservative for him myself – I can see him as a 55 – 60 point guy playing the tough minutes and second PP unit TOI. That strikes me as decent for the money. Until they have to start paying Cogliano and Gagner. Thank god they held Gagner back for two years and didn't just piss away two years of his ELC.

  24. quain says:

    Horcoff can certainly put up points, but it's going to take a better roster. If this team is going to have 1.2 (or whatever number it is) defensive zone faceoffs for every offensive zone faceoff it's going to be hard for Horcoff to get out for reasonably nice minutes… if the kids start tipping that ratio in the good direction it becomes a lot easier.

    Even on this team though, Tyler is right. I'd say 55 points is about where I'd peg him unless they completely remove his PP time and put him on a Moreau/Pisani line. On a good year, and with first unit time, I'd put it higher.

    It seems like he erased two comments on this thread, then closed his blogger profile?

    I'm sure that's not the case; he'll be back, shouting at HBomb and hating Horcoff before we know it.

  25. Lowetide says:

    Hockey Noob: I'm fine with it. Traktor has offered insight on this blog but it is also about respect and he never really got it. There is a way to express yourself without calling the other guy an ass, dolt, fuckstick, shithead.

    And there are 200,000 places on the internet to use that kind of language but I've asked everyone to refrain and for the most part it is respected. Traktor never got that and because of it many very good ideas he expressed turned into pissing contests.

    Tyler: I think 55-60 would be reasonable if Horcoff stayed on the Hemsky line and got PP time. I projected very little PP (almost zero) and the 47 points are almost 100% EV numbers.

  26. Ribs says:

    I projected very little PP (almost zero)…

    Hee Hee

  27. uni says:

    I projected very little PP (almost zero)…

    Hee Hee

    @Ribs: Ditto, and I'll toss in a "tee".

    Tee hee hee.

  28. SK Oiler Fan says:

    Scratch Goc and Yelle off of the UFA list.

    Yelle signed for 1 year, 550k with Carolina.

    Goc cigned a 1 year, 2-way contract with Nash.

    Why can't the Oilers hand out contracts like this? Affordable, extremely low risk signings that fill holes.

    Not saying Yelle or Goc are going to answer all the questions with this team, but man, there are guys like these that are still out there!

    Instead, we're praying for kids or prospects who've lost their way to finally get it.

  29. Al says:

    LT reader, FT comment. In my opinion, there's a lot of benefit to 'growing your own,' and if that's the direction this team has decided to take then I'm going to watch with interest.

    As a former trainer of horses, time and again you'd see a slow developer hit his stride a little later, but because of the solid foundation he'd received in a stable (pardon that) environment, his stride was strong and with sustain.

    The ones not patiently developed crashed more frequently. The kids in the Oilers' stable are in a great spot, as are the Oilers when and if they get their grip (and odds are they will). The Moores offer comfort now, but I prefer Poo's toolkit and mindset with the proper seasoning. Horc's a great example.

    Great blog, LT.

  30. Oilmaniac says:

    "Dave Gagner was a very good player in his days and Sam will be 10times the player his pops was mark my words."

    hyperbole much…

    "For me, cheap vets are not the answer. I think you can get the same or perhaps better with say Brule over Betts for example."

    - And that is why you fail,.. ahem, miss the playoffs…

  31. Perry K says:

    Hello LT,

    Great blog! I am a big fan.

    My first comments ever, and they are misplaced! Sorry if I am off-subject.

    Why would we not consider some one like Ziggy Palffy who at 37 is tearing up the Slovak League.

    2005-06 Pittsburgh Penguins NHL 42 11 31 42 12
    2007-08 Skalica HK 36 Slovak 46 30 45 75 93
    2008-09 Skalica HK 36 Slovak 53 52 47 99 46

    I understand about managing expectations with a team like this. But, may be we have been asked to be patient just one time too many! I don't see that the organization is even working at solving our 3C situation!

    Honestly, now what have the Oilers done this year? We replaced Roli with the "Wall". Does this look like any thing of significance?

    Patience my a**! How about some results! I don't really care if we sign Ziggy, atleast sign Betts!

  32. Oilmaniac says:

    Welcome Perry,

    At the least, i agree…

  33. kris says:

    Nice comment Al.

    I hope that management is thinking the way you are: give minutes to Brule, Pouliot, Jacques, etc., because at least one of them might turn out to be more than a 4th line plug, and if that happens we'll all be grinning. And keep playing Nilson, Gagner, Cogliano, O'Sullivan, because any one of them could turn into a star.

    Of course, this strategy does mean that we are more likely to miss the playoffs this year due to growing pains, but it's good asset management in the long term.

    That said, even if we had a vet 3C, there would still be room to play our young guys. Especially if we moved Moreau to the 4th line or off the team. Moreover, injuries create spots for young guys too.

  34. quain says:

    Can I ask a question? If Ethan Moreau took, let's say eight penalties last season instead of fourty-seven thousand, would everyone be so intent on pushing him down to the fourth line?

    He had the second highest QualComp among forwards, took a larger percentage of the team's offensive zone faceoffs than any forward not named Horcoff, Hemsky, or Brodziak, had a higher absolute difference between defensive and offensive zone draws than non-Horcoff/Brodziak forwards, and a team average PDO# so no supernatural support. He got killed on Corsi, which is to be expected as he's mediocre and started in poor position, but from what I can see he's a solid defensive forward. He also has some jam.

    Don't get me wrong, he's not a world beater, makes a bit too much, needs to cut the penalty crap, and doesn't seem to be a particularly strong leader… but he seems like a player with loads of what this team is lacking.

  35. Black Dog says:

    quain – other than the penalties I haven't an issue with Moreau except for the contract

    Same as Staios.

    Glad to see two long time Oilers finishing their careers with the club but they get paid way too much for what they bring.

    That's really my only issue – a guy like Moreau should be making ~ 1 million, maybe even less

  36. bookie says:

    I am pretty happy to be going forward with the group we have. One thing we need to realize is that this group of players almost all had an off year last year.

    I think that the battle between the coach and the players was related as much to square pegs and round holes as it was 'problem' players.

    For example, just because Penner is big, it does not mean that he will ever be a big agressive forward (in terms of hitting, etc.), but if he can stand in front of the net and score goal, then perhaps its best to accept him for that as opposed to trying to make him something he is not.

    I am not denying that there are some headcases on this team, but it is possible that they will react better with a different coach.

    LT is as correct as he was last year about the team being a bit unbalanced. Yet, this can be overcome somewhat (for a while) if the team picks it up in other areas of the game. They can do this until they either find the players they need in the organisation (the slew of candidates for 3rd and 4th line centre) or make a trade or signing to address the weakness.

    I am optimistic, and not blindly so. There is a chance that this team could be pretty decent. I am glad that we get the chance at a'do-over' with this group with a different coaching regime.

  37. bookie says:

    on Moreau,

    Lots of players take a full year before returning to form after an injury. I also think that we dramatized his struggles last year a bit and that he was not as bad as he was made out to be.

  38. quain says:

    I think the summer months are just getting to us. I certainly understood and support the calls to get his salary off the books or bench him for the penalties, but it seems to have drifted into the realm of 'he can't play hockey anymore.'

    The Moreau and Pisani contracts are just horrendous. Both guys should be signed slightly above $1M and instead they're making $4.5M combined. Thankfully, Lowe made up for that with the brilliant decision to make a stand on Ryan Smyth.

  39. SK Oiler Fan says:

    "Don't get me wrong, he's not a world beater, makes a bit too much, needs to cut the penalty crap, and doesn't seem to be a particularly strong leader"

    Quain,
    That's alot of ticks to the negative side.

    There's lots of players out there that can bring jam without the negative qualities you listed.

    Black Dog,
    Agreed that their salaries are out of line and that knocks them down significantly in the minds of fans.

    Moreau should be making 1-1.5M, play 4th line wing, be on the 2nd PK unit, drop the mits 4 or 5 times a year, and be wearing an A, not a C

  40. quain says:

    He doesn't just bring jam though, he's one of our best (or only, whichever way you want to look at it) defensive forwards. I think the salary is a sunk cost, you either move him or ignore it. The penalties were either an odd spike or Quinn will be less likely to spare the rod to get him to cut the crap.

    Even with the salary, moving Moreau to bring in a $2M Pahlsson-type seems like a bigger drop off, for this team than just running Moreau-Pouliot-Pisani. Pouliot seems like he has the chops to do the job, who on this team has the chops to be Ethan Moreau?

  41. Black Dog says:

    Has Grier signed yet? Marchant just signed for two years for 2.25 total.

    you're right Quain, they need guys like Moreau

    but he's like his former linemates, he is useful but the fact that he is needed to play tough minutes tells you a little bit about this club

    I would say Grier would be a comp – energy, hits, scores a little, PK, injury prone though

    I don't think he'll be making 2 per

    What can you do though?

  42. Coach pb9617 says:

    If Ethan Moreau took, let's say eight penalties last season instead of fourty-seven thousand, would everyone be so intent on pushing him down to the fourth line?

    If the queen had balls, she'd be the king.

    If Ethan Moreau made 1.2 million instead of 2 million, this team could fit another NHL forward on the team.

    If Andrew Cogliano could win a faceoff and not get run over, he'd be a great center.

    This is fun…

  43. Coach pb9617 says:

    I also think that we dramatized his struggles last year a bit and that he was not as bad as he was made out to be.

    I really need a picture of Jason Gregor to use with this link.

    As of March 19th, 2009:

    League-wide, there are 135 forwards on playoff contending teams that are playing 12 mins+ of ES a night.

    Ethan Moreau is 132nd in Corsi.
    Ethan Moreau is second in penalties taken.
    Ethan Moreau is 134th is taken/drawn differential.
    Ethan Moreau is 113th in GF/60.
    Ethan Moreau is 111th in Pts/60.
    Ethan Moreau is 20th [last] on the Edmonton Oilers among all players, not just forwards, in scoring chance differential.

    Conclusion: Ethan Moreau is the worst forward on any of the 21 teams in the playoff race.

    Moreau was hideous last year.

  44. kris says:

    Quain,

    Yeah, those are some good points, maybe Moreau is better than I've made him out.

    Let me clarify: my point was really that if the team is going to develop younger guys, they're better off occasionally giving some of Moreau's minutes with Pisani to a young player and also occasionally playing Moreau on the 4th line to help cover up the mistakes of the young players there. That is, spread the vets to help the younger players and give the younger players some opportunites to play. This makes sense to me as a development strategy.(Of course, this will cost us wins in the short term, no doubt.) I'd dump Moreau, only because of his salary and his injury history.

    Now regarding Moreau, I think you're right to point out his successes, but I think he's slightly worse than you've made him out to be. Why?

    a.) He does take the penalties, and will almost certainly keep taking them, and with our crappy PK the penalties hurt, so your hypothetical about penalties a moot point.

    b.) Moreau is supposed to kill penalties and he does a poor job of it. 4×5, He faced easier qual. comp. (1.47) than Pisani (3.02), i.e. more time against the second PP unit, but Moreau got destroyed at 8.19 gaon/60 to Pisani's 4.66 gaon/60. Moreover, Cogliano, Brodziak, and O'Sullivan all fare better than Moreau by this metric. Only Horcoff and Penner fare worse, and Horcoff faced tough opposition, and I'd suggest he had a bad year on the PK. (Fatigue may be a factor there too.)

    c.) Moreau's off.-def. zone face off number is, per timeonice.com, 19. Now, you're right that this is higher than most of our forwards, but I think it's misleading to say that this shows us much about Moreau. We need some context here: Horcoff's off.-def. faceoff number was 89, and Brodziak's was 112. Those numbers mean Brodziak and Horcoff spent an ungodly amount of time in their own end, which hurt their +/- per 60. Moreau's 19, not so much.

    Indeed, there are lots of players who are close to Moreau's 19: O'Sullivan (3), Pisani (O), Stortini (12), Pouliot (-4), Hemsky (-2), Reddox (5). I don't think the difference between these guys numbers and Moreau's is particularly signifigant.

    Let's agree to put it this way, so as not to be misleading: Moreau's off.-def. numbers as very slightly better than the team average.

    BTW, a better piece of information would be what Moreau's 'zoneshift' number, to quote Ferrari, is. That is, did Moreau end a lot of his defensive shifts in the other end of the rink or vice versa. Unfortunately, I can't remember how to get that damn number from timeonice. Me is dumb.

    But I will lay off Moreau from now until I forget this. :)

  45. kris says:

    Even with the salary, moving Moreau to bring in a $2M Pahlsson-type seems like a bigger drop off

    Sorry Quain, disregard my last overly long response and read this:

    Dear God, NOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!

    :) :)

  46. pboy says:

    Some real good comments so far on theCaptainethanmoreau but let's not forget that he was also King of throwing his teammates under the bus. How many times did he talk about how the PP let the team down but forgot to talk about the PK which he was a part of? How many times did he talk about how the team needed to play smarter and take less penalties after a game in which he took a couple of stupid minors 100 feet away from his own net? He rarely talked about what he could have done better but he didn't have a problem talking about the "young guys". There just seemed to be a huge lack of accountability from the guy who the organization chose to be the leader.

  47. Coach pb9617 says:

    kris

    Number … %DEF Faceoffs … Zone Shift … Corsi
    5 … 31% … -27 … -184
    10 … 39% … 165 … 5
    12 … 28% … -42 … -52
    13 … 28% … -18 … -87
    18 … 31% … -24 … -182
    19 … 31% … -4 … -13
    21 … 23% … -26 … -14
    22 … 26% … -4 … -21
    24 … 31% … -50 … -263
    26 … 27% … -14 … -6
    27 … 29% … 4 … 93
    28 … 29% … -5 … -5
    32 … 27% … -3 … 19
    33 … 24% … -2 … -35
    34 … 33% … -3 … -132
    35 … 32% … 0 … -333
    37 … 31% … 59 … 27
    38 … 30% … 2 … -45
    41 … 35% … 1 … -34
    43 … 29% … -72 … -210
    44 … 31% … -2 … -36
    46 … 35% … -23 … -121
    49 … 35% … -4 … -60
    51 … 45% … 100 … -187
    67 … 19% … -18 … -28
    71 … 30% … 20 … 68
    77 … 33% … 53 … -82
    78 … 27% … -48 … -56
    83 … 30% … 47 … 62
    85 … 32% … -16 … -147
    88 … 19% … -9 … -12
    89 … 29% … -41 … -40

  48. Fake Craig McTavish says:

    Black Dog said…
    Has Grier signed yet? Marchant just signed for two years for 2.25 total.

    Grier signed in Buffalo for $1.25M

  49. kris says:

    Thanks Coach,

    That -24, along with craptastic Corsi confirms my point I think: the truth about Moreau is that he's better than a career 4th liner, knuckle dragger, or a mistake prone kid, but he's not really a good, "3rd line, defensive player" either.

    It's not impossible that he gets better with more appropriate line mates, though. That is, as much as playing Cogliano with Pisani and Moreau seems like a waste of Cogliano's offense, it probably didn't help Moreau's play against tough opposition that he was playing with a kid, bumbing the puck and blowing coverage.

    But even so, the penalties and the craptastic PK'ing are a big problem, IMO.

  50. Coach pb9617 says:

    it probably didn't help Moreau's play against tough opposition that he was playing with a kid, bumbing the puck and blowing coverage.

    What you are saying isn't possible. Moreau's most common linemates were Cogliano and Pouliot and they didn't play tough competition at all.

    Moreau's comp was spiked by his time on the first line when MacCrazy was punishing everyone who wasn't at fault.

  51. kris says:

    Coach,

    Okay, quite right. Strike 'playing against tough comp.' from that sentence.

    My point is that it's reasonable enough to think Moreau's results 5×5 will improve, though who knows by how much, if he plays with someone's who's style of play meshes with his. Certainly it will help him if he's playing with a solid, vet 3C. This is hardly controversial, but then again, it's not any sort of evidence that Moreau is, as quain thinks, a good player.

    On the Quain-Coach spectrum of views on Moreau, I fall a lot closer to the Coach end.

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