RE 09-10: Andrew Cogliano

In his first two seasons as an Edmonton Oiler Andrew Cogliano has scored 36 goals. In the last decade, two-season totals from NHL newcomers include Mike Comrie (41), Jarret Stoll (32), Sam Gagner (29), Ales Hemsky (18), Jason Chimera (18), Shawn Horcoff (17).

Cogliano scored 14 even-strength goals in 972 minutes and scored 18 goals on 116 shots. Sustainable? Unlikely, although it’s at least more reasonable than his rookie season (Cogs scored 18 goals on 98 shots as a rookie. source: hockey-reference).

When he came into the league as a rookie I thought Cogliano would be a member of the Keon-Backstrom-Goring family, that group of undersized speedster centers who are demons as checkers. Comparisons to Todd Marchant (“with hands”) seemed reasonable based on the description of skills and how he looked on the ice.

Except Cogliano doesn’t have a lot of the skills we associate with those men. I remember Butch Goring as an LA King but don’t recall if he was an exceptional defensive player when he came into the league. As a rookie, he was -15 on a team that was -89 at EVs (Cogs was +1 on a team that was -14 so they were both better than average) but gained the reputation at some point of being a quality two-way center. Cogliano is a long way from Goring’s reputation, put it that way.

  • Boxcars: 82gp, 18-20-38, 20pims
  • Shots: 116
  • Plus Minus: -6
  • Corsi: -4.4
  • GF/GA ON: 36-37
  • 5×5/60: 1.69
  • 5×4/60: 3.39
  • Quality of Competition: 3rd level
  • Quality of Teammates: 3rd level
  • FO %: 37.2% in 702 sorties
  • 09-10 Cap Hit: $.850M(nhlnumbers.com)
  1. What do these numbers tell us? He’s hopeless in the faceoff circle to the point where you’d have to think they’ll ask someone else on his line to take draws. He’s scored 18 goals two seasons in a row to start his career and if he can cash a few more opportunities each season the Oilers could be looking at a consistent 25-goal scorer. His Corsi is poor, even less impressive compared to the other forwards on the roster and he’s not a powerplay monster.
  2. How could the numbers be better? Cogliano’s speed gets him lots of chances and like Todd Marchant before him the kid doesn’t cash like a sniper. I think he’ll be a better scorer than Marchant (who in the three seasons from age 23-25 scored 14, 14 and 14 goals) but can’t offer any math on the subject. It just seems reasonable to me that Cogliano will score 20 goals in a season before Marchant did (Marchant did it at age 29). Marchant was asked to take on a more complete role requiring a wider range of skills; Cogliano may not have those skills, which could mean a more one dimensional (offensive) role for the heart of his career. We’ll see.
  3. What about Gagner? I don’t see any reason they can’t co-exist but the Oilers have already tried to trade one of them so it seems they’re heading to a Horcoff-Comrie conclusion. Cogliano would seem to be the man destined to spend the heart of his career elsewhere.
  4. What about the Kid Line? One thing that might work is a Gagner-O’Sullivan-Cogliano line. POS can play any position and Gagner is far better in the middle (to my eye with thanks from Louise) so it’s a matter of Cogliano accepting a role on the wing.
  5. Will Quinn play him against tougher opposition? I don’t think any of the kids are prepared for heavy lifting and the surprise is Cogliano. Gagner came from junior hockey, Nilsson is a free spirit but Cogliano went to college and we’re used to Shawn Horcoff and Fernando Pisani type coming from the NCAA. Maybe it’s a matter of maturity and he’ll show improvement this coming season.
  6. What Else? The Oilers have traded Andrew Cogliano. I have no idea how that impacts the future.
  7. How Important is Cogliano to this team? Pretty important. He’s either a valuable trading chip or he’s part of the future up front. It would help if he was a little better in the present.

By The Numbers

  • 07-08 5×5 per 60m: 2.28
  • 08-09 5×5 per 60m: 1.69
  • 07-08 5×4 per 60m: 2.52
  • 08-09 5×4 per 60m: 3.39

Predictions Past 2008-09

  • Predicted: 80gp, 20-25-45 (.563 per game).
  • Actual: 82gp, 18-20-38 (.463 per game).

Prediction for 2009-10: 82gp, 22-25-47 (.573 per game)

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