RE 09-10: Devan Dubnyk

For several seasons now (really since the 2004 entry draft) the Oilers goalie prospects have had a specific pecking order: JDD, DD and then everyone else. Guy Flaming mentioned to me once that MacT was extremely impressed with Dubnyk one fall (I don’t remember which one) and Andrew Perugini did some things to get noticed a year ago.

Other than that it’s been JDD, DD and everyone else.

I think we’re reaching a point now where Devan Dubnyk will either pass Deslauriers or get lost in the flood. This time next season both will need to clear waivers in order to get to the American League so any kind of clearance for one or the other will be important.

For this reason (and others) I think Dubnyk will get some time in the show in 2009-10. Other factors include injuries and poor performances.

  • Boxcars: 62gp, 2.97 (AHL)
  • SP: .906 (AHL)
  • WLT: 18-41-2 (AHL)
  • SP ahead of backup: .002 (AHL)
  • Cap hit (capgeek): .700M
  1. What do these numbers tell us? His SP was 27th among AHL goaltenders playing 30 or more games, but those other guys weren’t in front of the Falcons. Among the men guarding the Springfield net, Dubnyk’s .906 tied JDD, was .002 clear of Dany Sabourin (a solid AHL veteran) and .006 beyond Glenn Fisher (who played 120 minutes). Dubnyk’s performance in the minors was solid but unspectacular. His own opinion of the season is that he made excellent progress and plans on being an Oiler this fall. Excellent attitude.
  2. How could these numbers change this season? Dubnyk is almost certain to be sent out (JDD is out of options) and the Falcons are almost certain to be better this season. Therefore, Dubnyk’s AHL totals should be excellent and his SP is likely to rise nearer the magic .915 marker (Asia’s “line in the sand”) we had hoped for in earlier pro seasons.
  3. What about injury? Healthy so far, big goalies are always a worry.
  4. What about a trade? Extremely unlikely.
  5. What about Frederic Chabot? Sometimes a light goes on when someone approaches an old problem a different way. Here’s hoping Chabot has fresh ideas about positioning, rebound control and taking penalties (Dubnyk takes a lot of them for a goalie, sometimes when his team is already shorthanded).
  6. How Important is Dubnyk to the organization? He’s pretty important. The 2004 draft has yet to produce an NHL regular and Dubnyk was the highest pick. If he could establish himself as an NHL goalie in the next 24 months it would go a long way to saving a draft that looks subpar right now.

Prediction for 2009-10: 7gp, 3.29 .899

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