RE 09-10: Devan Dubnyk

For several seasons now (really since the 2004 entry draft) the Oilers goalie prospects have had a specific pecking order: JDD, DD and then everyone else. Guy Flaming mentioned to me once that MacT was extremely impressed with Dubnyk one fall (I don’t remember which one) and Andrew Perugini did some things to get noticed a year ago.

Other than that it’s been JDD, DD and everyone else.

I think we’re reaching a point now where Devan Dubnyk will either pass Deslauriers or get lost in the flood. This time next season both will need to clear waivers in order to get to the American League so any kind of clearance for one or the other will be important.

For this reason (and others) I think Dubnyk will get some time in the show in 2009-10. Other factors include injuries and poor performances.

  • Boxcars: 62gp, 2.97 (AHL)
  • SP: .906 (AHL)
  • WLT: 18-41-2 (AHL)
  • SP ahead of backup: .002 (AHL)
  • Cap hit (capgeek): .700M
  1. What do these numbers tell us? His SP was 27th among AHL goaltenders playing 30 or more games, but those other guys weren’t in front of the Falcons. Among the men guarding the Springfield net, Dubnyk’s .906 tied JDD, was .002 clear of Dany Sabourin (a solid AHL veteran) and .006 beyond Glenn Fisher (who played 120 minutes). Dubnyk’s performance in the minors was solid but unspectacular. His own opinion of the season is that he made excellent progress and plans on being an Oiler this fall. Excellent attitude.
  2. How could these numbers change this season? Dubnyk is almost certain to be sent out (JDD is out of options) and the Falcons are almost certain to be better this season. Therefore, Dubnyk’s AHL totals should be excellent and his SP is likely to rise nearer the magic .915 marker (Asia’s “line in the sand”) we had hoped for in earlier pro seasons.
  3. What about injury? Healthy so far, big goalies are always a worry.
  4. What about a trade? Extremely unlikely.
  5. What about Frederic Chabot? Sometimes a light goes on when someone approaches an old problem a different way. Here’s hoping Chabot has fresh ideas about positioning, rebound control and taking penalties (Dubnyk takes a lot of them for a goalie, sometimes when his team is already shorthanded).
  6. How Important is Dubnyk to the organization? He’s pretty important. The 2004 draft has yet to produce an NHL regular and Dubnyk was the highest pick. If he could establish himself as an NHL goalie in the next 24 months it would go a long way to saving a draft that looks subpar right now.

Prediction for 2009-10: 7gp, 3.29 .899

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6 Responses to "RE 09-10: Devan Dubnyk"

  1. raventalon40 says:

    Cue the Dubnyk cult following the moment the Bulin wall goes down with injury. Damn, I jinxed it.

    Knock on wood.

  2. LMHF#1 says:

    I've never seen anything live that would indicate that Dubnyk is better than Deslauriers. Jeff has a solid style and plays very confidently.

    I'm well aware that it may run afoul of the numbers, but I think he's got a shot to become something in a couple years.

  3. Smarmy Boss says:

    This question has probably been asked and answered. Sabourin is a career AHL goaltender. What is his career SV % in that league.

    It's not perfect but might give us a little insight into just how bad the Falcons were and what we might expect from Devan if he was backstopping an average team. (at least)

  4. Jonathan Willis says:

    LMHF#1: Out of curiousity, did you see the preseason game vs. PHX a year or two ago?

    Dubnyk was spectacular.

    I'm friends with a fellow who was briefly a Rangers' prospect. He swears by Dubnyk, based on what he saw during Dubnyk's time in Kamloops.

    All I'm saying is not to sell Dubnyk short.

  5. Bruce says:

    JW: Don't remember that PHX game, but Dubnyk should get a fair chunk of preseason action this year. Don't think he's had much more than a courtesy game in the past when he was #4 or lower on the depth chart. He'll get a good chance to make an impression in '09.

  6. Oilman says:

    I believe the Dubnyk game you are referring to also had Mikhnov scored and added a few helpers, so yeah, sign of great things to come:o).

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