RE: 09-10 Oiler Forwards
The current group of forwards on the Oilers depth chart is capable of exceptional beauty and moments of extreme consternation. Last season during my reasonable expectations posts I suggested the Oilers forwards would score 215 goals; the idea was that with two scoring lines Edmonton would rip up the NW division offensively.
Last year’s list featured one 30 goal prediction (Penner) and three 20+ scorers (Hemsky, Horcoff and Cogliano) while in reality the team could manage only one 20-goal forward (Hemsky) and the forwards scored only 181 goals. This season I’m just a little more conservative.
- Ales Hemsky 75gp, 24-66-90 (1.20)
- Sam Gagner 78gp, 20-40-60 (.769)
- Patrick O’Sullivan 78gp, 28-28-56 (.717)
- Shawn Horcoff 71gp, 18-29-47 (.662)
- Andrew Cogliano 82gp, 22-25-47 (.573)
- Dustin Penner 80gp, 20-21-41 (.513)
- Robert Nilsson 70gp, 11-19-30 (.429)
- Fernando Pisani 60gp, 14-14-28 (.467)
- Marc Pouliot 70gp, 10-15-25 (.357)
- Ethan Moreau 65gp, 12-11-23 (.354)
- Ryan Potulny 66gp, 9-12-21 (.318)
- Zack Stortini 70gp, 6-10-16 (.229)
- Gilbert Brule 55gp, 7-8-15 (.273)
- JF Jacques 50gp, 3-7-10 (.200)
Oiler forwards scored 181 goals a year ago, this time I’m predicting 208. I’m also going to predict that Ales Hemsky drags this team into the second season.
Okay, who's the lady? I'm smitten.
Fake Steve Tambelleni, "Go back in there, chill them Oilers fans out, and wait for the cavalry which should be coming directly."
The Cavalry is not coming but Ann Margaret is here so who cares?
@Fake Craig McTavish,
If the Cavalry is not coming, how's Hemsky going to get 90 points?
…that Ann Margaret is a fox…quite dashing.
She's top drawer alright. God she was beautiful.
I am either too young or too ignorant to recognize the last few women in LT's post photos, lol. However, if I had a time machine, I would go back in time and try my luck with Diana Rigg.
Hockey Noob said…
@Fake Craig McTavish,
If the Cavalry is not coming, how's Hemsky going to get 90 points?
It would appear LT has at least 2 fantasies. :0)
Nice Gerta…nice.
How does a team like ours have no cap room? Just a random thought.
The Oilers need to consider a salary dump.
raventalon40 said…
How does a team like ours have no cap room? Just a random thought.
L-O-W-E
Well I know the answer. It's just, it's mind-boggling how close to the cap we are.
Death by papercut.
A million here, one hundred grand there.
Ann-Margret
/pedant
And you want to be my latex salesman.
28 goals for O'sullivan! Is he taking 373 shots.
LT the photo's in your posts are getting better and better. My son has no clue who any of the women are and that's just fine by me.
Can't help but think that the total goals from the forward corps is still too high and we're not setting ourselves up for more frustration. But it's only when you aggregate the totals that they really look out-of-line. Taken one by one, I would think this might be very close to what the coaches would be saying.
Can't wait to see the "ladies of the blueline"!
LT whats your prediction for our mystery 3rd line center
Looks good LT. But why do you expect POS to score 28? Isn't, say, 23 a more reasonable expectation. 28-30 is what happens if all goes well.
As long as Hemsky is the 'best' player on this team, 1.20ppg is just a pipe dream. With the roster as-is, he's 0.95ppg at best.
I want to qualify this comment by saying I would not trade Hemsky for anything short of Crosby/Ovechkin/Malkin/Datsyuk/Zetterberg/E.Staal/Getzlaf, and that I am the guy's biggest booster.
We've got to stop saying "Hemsky can't score 90 points unless we upgrade his linemates". I seem to remember Doug Weight racking up 104 points in 1995/96 without an elite linemate, and Hemsky's got even better physical gifts than Weight had (not to knock Dougie – great player in his own right).
If Hemsky is truly the elite talent we think he is, he can take the step forward with the roster as-is. And as Mr. Zona's work has shown, he might already have two ideal linemates as teammates in Shawn Horcoff and Dustin Penner.
i know most of this blog was against Prospal coming here, but he just signed a 1 year deal for $1.2 million in NYR. For that price he would have upgraded our top 6. he would have been a nice fit on our second line, and at that price fits our money situation (if you remove nilsson). Prospal would have been a nice fit on our second line, expecially if you add a top LW in a deal for a defenseman. i realize we are tight against the cap and roster size, but deals like this make me cringe in that these are NHL players who are better then our current players who are signing for peanuts. Not saying he would have come here, but here's hoping Tambellini starts to make some moves.
I am with godot10 who stated this in an earlier post;
"I'm hoping for Souray for Frolov. I don't care that Frolov only has one year left. It gets Tambellini out of cap hell, and gets a winger for the 1st line."
I love this idea and agree 100%. And I repect and appreciated not only Souray's shot and scoring punch from the blue-line, but his leadership and toughness. But his value is at an all time high and he'll be harder to move next season, IMO, over say, Vish if needed.
Plus I think LA is very likely a destination Souray would agree to, since it's where he useto spend his off-season (and perhaps still does).
This deal would save us $2.5mil in cap space this year and provide a very solid top-LW option, plus free up more cap space next season and there is a ton of UFA defencemen available next summer. We could also use the $2.5 to go after a cheaper replacement this season, such as Seidenberg.
I'd also like to see them move Staios for anything and he too could be replaced cheaply on D, or use that money towards the 3rd-line Center we need desperately.
I wouldn't be adverse to Tanguay at 3 million for 3 years. Not that he would sign onto the Oil for that.
NBOilerFan said…
I am with godot10 who stated this in an earlier post;
"I'm hoping for Souray for Frolov. I don't care that Frolov only has one year left. It gets Tambellini out of cap hell, and gets a winger for the 1st line."
You're working from the assumption that LA needs or wants Souray. They don't.
You're also working from the assumption that LA doesn't want to re-sign Frolov. He fits much better into their rebuild than Souray does and has stated publicly he and his wife love LA.
Souray's age, contract and injury history make him a non-starter for LA IMO.
Goldilocks for D. Stafford .. the Oil gets instantly bigger/better.
Souray's age, contract and injury history make him a non-starter for LA IMO.
They're weak on the back end and I'd agree that they were just going to let their young guys get good… but then they added Ryan Smyth.
It's certainly not a forgone conclusion, but I can't say it's a non-starter.
Fake Craig McTavish said…
You're working from the assumption that LA needs or wants Souray. They don't.
Souray's age, contract and injury history make him a non-starter for LA IMO.
And your working from teh assumption that LA doesn't need or want Souray. They do.
And you also working on the assumption that they are all about young rebuild players, but as Quain already pointed out they just dealt for Smyth, who is far away from that gameplan.
They need an offensive weapon on the blueline like Souray more then anything, IMO. And The kings have expressed frustration with Frolov's play several times last season and his needing to improve and be a better all around player. Doesn't mean they don't want him, but I don't think they are that high on him either.
Plus they now have Smyth and Brown on LW as well which are great 1st and 2nd line options. Not to mention they could probably sign Tanguay as well and havea nice balanced lineup with a bomb on the backend in Souray.
Lowetide, just for shits-n-giggles you should do a prediction for Heatley on the premious that he is an Oiler on this seasons roster.
Then we can go back and see how it compares to whatever his actual stats turn out to be on whatever team he ends up with.
errr… "premise" not… "premious"
… I need to spell check.
NBOF:
80gp 44-48-92 +7
I would have said that Souray to LA was a non starter as well,until they acquired Smyth.I think LA is ready to make a push this year,although I don't see them giving up Frolov.Handzuz maybe,but not Frolov.
I posted in the same previous thread that we don't have to target a forward if Souray has asked to be moved…we could target a cheaper version of himself…ie:tough,big minute top 4D,provided we get some cap relief.Then go shopping in the UFA bin for the top6 forward we're looking for.
Souray for Erik Johnson?You're the St. Louis expert FCM,are they willing to upgrade on the blueline?
"Then go shopping in the UFA bin for the top6 forward we're looking for."
Oh no, you have Lowelinni disease: a form of mania and delusions, including racing thoughts, where the patient has an uncontrollable desire to sign unattainable free agent forwards. Symptoms include signing Dustin Penner, embarrasing incidents with Michael Nylander, and throwing money in the air whenever you hear the name Hossa.
…i do seem to be sweating a lot lately…shortness of breath…although that's probably due to the picture's LT has been posting lately.
Shopping in the UFA bin is just one option-the trade route is available as well…what does Cogliano and $3M in cap space get you?
Goldilocks for D. Stafford .. the Oil gets instantly bigger/better.
No to trading Tom Gilbert. Period. (Also no to stupid nicknames, but that's neither here nor there). You've been reading too much Brownlee apparently. 77 is the absolute last of the Oiler blueliners you deal off.
If Buffalo wants to talk Stafford for Cogliano, THAT might make sense. That plus Souray for Frolov is the kind of trade work I could get behind.
Frolov-Horcoff-Hemsky
Penner-Gagner-Stafford
I like it. A lot. Nilsson on standby for next season if/when they have to let Frolov walk as a UFA.
Gerta Rauss said…
…what does Cogliano and $3M in cap space get you?
The following quote from LT:
"You don't trade him until you know what he brings"
(paraphrasing)
I'm just spitballing on a lazy Monday afternoon…I'm perfectly fine with the team we have,and taking our chances with an 8th place finish in the West.
If Souray has asked to be moved,that's a whole different story however.
And I'd be fine with Frolov as well,and if he doesn't want to sign an extension,we'll take the cap space next summer.
Ahhh, the promise of a fresh new year. I sort of feel like Linus from the Peanuts cartoons with the football skit.
After promises of many new changes, we end up with pretty much the same old team.
Swapped our old goalie for another old goalie and brought in two new coaches, and never mind all the gaping holes in the good ship Oiler, we are on the cusp of another season.
At least we will get to see how much of a change the coaching will bring without a lot of other variables confusing things, like, new players for instance. We’ll get a chance to see if last year’s team underperformed or was really as bad as it looked.
Will the Bhullin wall steal as many games as Rollie did last year? I don’t think so.
Hemsky dragging this team into the playoffs? They have to beat 7 teams in the division to do that. Our red headed bastard stepbrother to the south of us got better, heck, it seems most everyone got better, or stayed the same at least.
Can Souray have another awesome injury free year? Hmmmmmm.
We don’t have any offense and the only record this team has set is for the sheer number of bad untradeable contracts it owns.
I'm setting expectations as low as possible this year and am hoping they can find the rink and put the proper uniforms on.
I always like these projections, but I'm going to pick one ot quibble with.
Now that Robert Nilsson has earned the distaste of virtually every Oilers' fan out there, I think he's going to return to his 2007-08 form; possibly even better (not so much at evens but he could have done a lot more with PP minutes that year).
Of course, that is only a quibble since that may not be a reasonable projection, but I think his splits are suggestive.
Re: LT insists Oilers will make a move.
Likely the rest of you net-mavens have already seen this, but if not, here's Brownlee opining in his latest post on Oilers Nation:
Of course trading one of the Big Four is a move that’s coming. Gibberish from assistant GM Kevin Prendergast about standing pat notwithstanding, it’s not a matter of if but when. And who?
Staples chimes in as well
My wife and I were discussing underrated beauty recently. I threw out Ann Margaret, she disagreed. I submitted the following for approval.
I won.
You've neglected this Coach.
Gerta Rauss said…
I would have said that Souray to LA was a non starter as well,until they acquired Smyth.I think LA is ready to make a push this year,although I don't see them giving up Frolov.Handzuz maybe,but not Frolov.
I posted in the same previous thread that we don't have to target a forward if Souray has asked to be moved…we could target a cheaper version of himself…ie:tough,big minute top 4D,provided we get some cap relief.Then go shopping in the UFA bin for the top6 forward we're looking for.
Souray for Erik Johnson?You're the St. Louis expert FCM,are they willing to upgrade on the blueline?
Oh let's see.
A 33 year old, injury prone defenseman with a cap hit of $5.3M for a 21 year former 1st overall draft pick who played in the league as an 18 year old, is on an ELC scored 33 points in 69 games as a rookie and reportedly has a point shot in the Souray range.
(golf cart injuries don't count)
You might think the Blues could use Souray on the PP but, when you consider they were 8th overall last season without three of the best PP weapons in Kariya, McDonald and Johnson, you'd have to think Souray wouldn't be all that useful.
In other words, uh, no.
No it is then.
Glad we've cleared that up.
@ Quain and NBOIler.
You're not looking closely enough at what Lomdardi is doing.
You're right they needed a veteran defensive presence on the back end.
That's why they signed Scuderi for 4 seasons at $3.4M.
They also have O'Donnell at $1.25M (ggrrrr…Staios contract) through this season and , at that point, he or someone else will be signed or more likely Doughty, Johnson, Hickey or Teubert will step into that role.
You should also bear in mind that the Kings, without Scuderi and with Johnson on the mend, finished last season 4th in SA/G, 11th in GA/G, 7th in PK% and a respectable 14th in PP%.
What they didn't do was score enough goals and that's why Lombardi thought Smyth was worth the gamble.
Since Frolov scored 32 goals, 59 points and was second in team scoring, why exactly would they move that for Souray's production when they already have Stoll with a cannon from the point.
It just doesn't make any sense unless Frolov indicates he won't resign but he has said he wants to stay in LA.
Not every GM in the league panics and signs players a year before they hit free agency, especially when it appears the cap is going to drop.
LA has $9.5M in free cap space at the moment and they should have no trouble resigning Frolov if they choose to or replace him with a quality player since LA has always been a prime UFA destination.
hehe… Im liking the new 'diversion' tactics you've taken up over the last week LT…
Its the same roster.. and yet im smiling… hehe.. jokes, no need to always be so negative… Just wanted to comment on your trade-still-in-the-cards hypothesis… You are right in asserting that there are still a number of teams that need to shuffle the deck to get full rosters and under the cap at the same time… Plus I may owe another poster an appology at some point (I laughed at the suggestion that tambs was waiting out FAs), because it does look like there are a number of free agents stuck on the shelf because of the current cap crunch of so many teams…
(although I still dont think the Oil management should be given to much credit for the 'wait-m-out' stance as much of that seems due to already being full up)
Anyways, no doubt of topic, just wanted to throw that out there…
Souray brings something unique on this team (offensive contributor, with big, mean, someone pissed in his corn flakes D attitude) so it really would be preferable to keep him, imo. It would help the cap to ditch him, but I'm not convinced we'd be any better. In order to improve this team the duplicated skillsets and the overpaid, easily replaceable veterans need to be weeded out in favour of what our needs are.
Souray may not outperform his contract, but he does have a needed skill set and is not easily replaceable with a cheaper version, unlike some others: Moreau, Staios, Nilsson, and arguably Penner+Pisani.
While that whole group is here we can only improve through organic growth of our young players.
Phil said…
As long as Hemsky is the 'best' player on this team, 1.20ppg is just a pipe dream. With the roster as-is, he's 0.95ppg at best.
- I second that…
Hbomb said…
"… he might already have two ideal linemates as teammates in Shawn Horcoff and Dustin Penner…"
- C'mon, f'real!?!… he might, but, I would have thought the summer talk surrounding penner (and the stance that he-just-may-not-be-that-good) would have killed off some of this (misplaced?) hope…
Shanetrain – has anyone heard that stafford is in play? would have though buffalo would be holding on to him, but the oil have been big on him since draft year (heard that anyways) I would dig a move for another big young kid…
Oh,.. and just say no to one year of Frolov (unless you know hes gunna sign.. probably would be just as excited as vish was when he first heard that hed been traded to edmonton)
Someone had better please tell me that's not Ann Margaret.
Oh but it IS, Hunter. I've been waiting for your reaction.
H.
O.
T.