RE 09-10: Steve Staios

The saddest thing in the world for a professional athlete is staying too long at the fair. I remember Willie Mays playing centerfield for the Mets, I remember Rusty Staub on the basepaths, I remember Chris Chelios playing defense for Detroit. Lots and lots of people are suggesting Steve Staios needs to move along, he’s no longer useful. Has Steve Staios stayed too long at the fair? There are a lot of miles on him, he’s blocked more shots than Manute Bol and he’s lost a step. But is he useful?

  • Boxcars: 80gp, 2-12-14 92pims
  • Shots: 78
  • Plus Minus: -5
  • Corsi: -11.6 (5 of 6 among top 6D)
  • 5×5/60: 0.68 (worst among top 6D)
  • 5×4/60: 0.00
  • GF/GA ON: 43-49 (worst among top 6D)
  • Quality of competition: 4th toughest among D
  • Quality of pairing: dregs
  • cap hit (capgeek): 2.7M
  1. What do these numbers tell us? His offense didn’t change much season over season (Staios was 0.65 at 5×5/60 in 07-08) but that’s not really his value. A season ago (07-08) Staios played tough opposition with little help and finished 53-74 GF/GA ON and was of course worst in that category. His Corsi was about the same (-7.8) as last season too. Steve Staios is still an NHL defenseman, but he has slipped in that he’s still posting negative numbers but now doing it against less than top drawer opposition. Should that happen again this season we might be looking at the end of the line. We shouldn’t be fooled though, sometimes veterans play through injury or find a second life and add several seasons when thought to be close to the end.
  2. How can these numbers be better? Well, they could pair him with a veteran D and play him against the soft parade. Since that’s unlikely, I’d just say that Steady Steve could use some penalty killing help. Staios played 18% of his total TOI last season shorthanded.
  3. What about injury? He’s been healthy for two seasons in a row so it’s steady as she goes. He’s no doubt played through injury in those two seasons, though.
  4. What about a trade? I think he has value and should Edmonton be well out of the playoffs this deadline there’s a chance he’ll be moved. Staios’ contract is too big but a team looking for depth might decide one full season at 2.7M is fine if it means having an extra veteran on the blue for the long playoff run. The best move for the Oilers would be to offload the contract.
  5. Will Quinn play him against tough opposition? He might try it, in fact Staios might enjoy a new life if paired with one of the marquee defensemen to begin the season. Staios has been mentoring for a long time, who knows what he could do with actual help?
  6. How Important is Staios to this organization? He’s played over 500 games as an Edmonton Oilers and is the only man who played for the 2006 team still walking the beat on the blueline. He’s been a leader for many years and in that way he’s an important player.

Prediction past 2008-09

  • Predicted: 82gp, 2-14-16 (.195 per game)
  • Actual: 80gp, 2-12-14 (.175 per game)

Prediction for 2009-10: 75gp, 2-10-12 (.160 per game)

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20 Responses to "RE 09-10: Steve Staios"

  1. Gerta Rauss says:

    Staios has been the consummate Oiler in his time here,but it is time to go.
    Move him at the deadline to a team that will get 2 playoff runs out of him while this contract is still in place.

  2. Fake Craig McTavish says:

    Considering there are still several much more capable defensemen without NHL contracts, I expect it would be very difficult if not impossible at the deadline or ever to move Staios.

    Most playoff teams will have AHL players with more ability at a fraction of the price.

  3. Jonathan Willis says:

    I do wonder how much of Staios' 08-09 collapse had to do with running out with either the kid (Smid) or the boat anchor (the nice fellow earning NHL dollars because of his willingness to play his role).

    I wouldn't be shocked to see him rebound, but he'd have to rebound quite a ways to cover his cap number.

    If Staios were making Strudwick money, I'd be all for keeping him, but at the end of the day the dollars are just too steep for what he brings.

  4. Racki says:

    Just some random stats to throw out there, Souray's best defensive partner last year as far as ES GA/60 is concerned was Steve Staios (0.627). His best offensive partner last year was Tom Gilbert (1.029). When you factor in ES GF – ES GA, Staios makes the better pairing.

    Staios and Smid on the other hand made a very bad pairing, having a ES GA/60 of 0.786 and ES GF/60 of 0.589. I think that's where most of the problem with Staios' GF/GA ON.

    On that note, Staios' best game came when paired up with Souray, which would have meant he was facing the best competition on the ice during that time. They're a good pair, and that's some good reason to keep those together.

    Also, on the trade front, I've said it before and will say it again. I don't think Nashville is quite at the floor yet and they have a very young defence. If I were wanting to move Staios, that would be the first team I would call up.

    People are going to find this weird, but I've got an upcoming blog post down the road about some new D-pairings I could see. So long as Staios is still on this team, he should *not* be paired with Smid. Statistically speaking, Gilbert has made quite a good pairing with Smid, however.

  5. David says:

    Brett Lebda and Karlis Skrastins are good comparisons, I think. Jason Smith may be making a similar salary but I think Staios should be making in the Skrastins range to be affordable for what he does.

  6. Coach pb9617 says:

    I'd just say that Steady Steve could use some penalty killing help. Staios played 18% of his total TOI last season shorthanded.

    Renney's PK will help Staios this year. I think that Renney lightening the load on the PK will lead to Staios having a nice year and it will make him valuable in March. TR is not afraid to cycle five d through the PK rotation. That would mean a ton to Staios and Souray.

  7. oilerdago says:

    //Also, on the trade front, I've said it before and will say it again. I don't think Nashville is quite at the floor yet and they have a very young defence. If I were wanting to move Staios, that would be the first team I would call up.//

    Racki, according to capgeek Nashville is at $42 million. But even if they weren't, David Poile is too smart a cookie to take on that kind of contract for 2 more seasons.

    The contract's real boat anchor at this point in his career, which is unfortunate.

  8. Jonathan Willis says:

    Don't get too excited about Staios and Souray playing together. From Vic's site:

    GF/GA: 18/16 (+2)
    Corsi (F/A): 431/503 (-72)
    On-Ice SV%: .945
    On-Ice SH% 7.5%

    The second and third number are the ones to note.

    It's possible that 44/24 are just that good in their own end, but I wouldn't buy into it just yet. Also, on a team with three first-rate puck-moving defensemen, it seems a shame to put 44 & 24 together.

    How about (in order of difficulty):

    Hard match 44/71 against toughies.

    Give a fairly even split with the rest of the minutes to 5/77 and 37/24. Am I the only one who could see Grebeshkov and Staios as a nice pairing?

  9. Racki says:

    oilerdago: with the bonus cushion, they come in at just under 40. Of course, they're pretty much right at the cap anyways and not really needing much at all to push them over. But I'm putting more of the emphasis on them having an average defenceman age of something like 24 (unless you include Belak who plays forward and D). I think their oldest guy, until they re-sign De Vries (if they re-sign him) is 26.

  10. Racki says:

    JW: Read my post above (4th from the top). Staios and Souray are a pretty good pairing, statistically speaking. It's Smid and Staios that do not work together. Also, Souray and Visnovsky did not make a very good pairing last year (believe it or not). They had a ES GA/60 in the 0.800s and a ES GF/60 in the 0.500s. Not good.

    I could possibly see Grebs and Staios together, but I did a bit of analysis for another post, and I found that stats wise some good pairings across the board turned out to be:

    Souray Staios
    Visnovsky Grebs (very good pairing)
    Smid Gilbert

  11. Sam says:

    Want to find 2 million dollars worth of cap space? Send SS to Springfield and go with TP. I know that might be hard to do to a real nice guy but that is something you should consider if it helps land a solid 3rd line center. I don't think they'll do it though.

    I think this is the only way to dump salary in the new NHL. Nobody would take that contract and player in a trade. The return would be zero

  12. Asiaoil says:

    If they can't dump him at the deadline or in the summer then he's hitting waivers after next TC and will get his dough in the AHL. Don't feel sad for him – he stole that 4th year of NHL money from the Oilers. Dumb, dumb contract.

  13. hunter1909 says:

    "I know that might be hard to do to a real nice guy"

    Yes, excellent point. The Oilers would always prefer to lose games, than ever so much as entertain the thought of doing anything that might even be perceived as bad, to their aging and increasingly worthless coaches or players.

  14. Jonathan Willis says:

    Racki: I did read your post. I haven't looked at the numbers for 44/71, but what I was doing was explaining that despite Souray and Staios' apparent success together, their numbers were good not because they were a force territorially or possession-wise, but because they had a likely unsustainable .945 SV% behind them.

  15. Racki says:

    JW: Ahh, I get what you are saying now, sorry I missed that.

    But at the same time though, that begs the question, why would the SV% be that high? Is it possible that a lot of the shots were directed from outside of quality scoring areas (suggesting that the group as a whole did a better job of defending). i.e. maybe it's an indication of quality of shots vs. quantity of shots. I've always felt that Roli was at his best when the team was collapsing around him clearing out rebounds (he's a goalie that those "junk" goal scorers love to play against).

    I'm not saying that the two are an amazing pair out there, but that stat (like any) can definitely be read different ways. Hard to make anything of it, I suppose. What's your source for that stat, if you don't mind (I'd just like to poke around myself and check some other d-pairings out).

  16. Racki says:

    Oops, disregard my question at the end of the post above, I see you addressed that in your original post.

  17. Coach pb9617 says:

    But at the same time though, that begs the question, why would the SV% be that high?

    That's raising the question, not begging the question.

  18. Racki says:

    Guilty, grammar police ;)

  19. spOILer says:

    That'd be the semantics cops, not the grammar police. ;o)

    Begging the question means to assume your conclusion in your premises, which was not what you meant.

    Just as "grammar" would be the wrong choice here.

    /another semantics raid

  20. raventalon40 says:

    Semantics for the win.

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