Dubnyk Emerging?

We’ve been talking lately about minor league save percentage and its ability to predict future success at the NHL level. Although there is no such thing as a perfect way to project these kids, save percentage has a strong correlation between superior AHL save percentage and future NHL success.

In the case of Dubnyk, I’ve wondered (both in junior and in the AHL) about the age of the blueline and Jonathan Willis wondered about quality of team and how it impacts SP. I’m wondering if there’s a way to improve the SP with an added “quality/experience of team” footnote for each season.

The reason it is front and center for me is that Devan Dubnyk is having a very nice start to the season and his team also appears to be much stronger overall. I felt this might happen (a more experienced, qualified AHL team should mean fewer good chances against) for Dubnyk in 09-10 and in fact his save percentage has taken a leap. However the shot total has increased this season:

  • 2008-09 Save Percentage/Shots per game: .906/31.53
  • 2009-10 Save Percentage/Shots per game: .920/37.78

I know that good teams often get outshot when they’re ahead but that doesn’t appear to be the case with the current edition of the Falcons. I welcome theories and reasoning behind this season for DD (and do understand it’s early) but it looks to me as though he’s having a very good start to the year and may give the Oilers a welcome dilemma next off-season.

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