Oilers at Hawks, G6, 09-10
There is absolutely nothing to complain about with regard to the Edmonton Oilers. Sure they lost to the Flames early but they played well in both games and have performed admirably through the season’s first 5 contests. They have question marks on pretty much every line, they have too many small players and they lack strength up the middle.
Shut up, brain.
They’re kicking ass. We’re at the point in the party when the booze has given us a nice buzz and women are smiling at us and then laughing at our jokes (even the stupid ones).
Drink deeply, keep the buzz (and for the plus 40 group drink 1 water per drink of alcohol and take two Advil before sleeping). History tells us we’re going to feel awful in the morning.
Not a good job on that goal. Versteeg's stick should have been tied up, but that looked eminently saveable too.
Hemsky rarely looks like a chicken, but twice on that shift he shied away. Once sending a suicide pass to Horcoff and the other time when he yielded the right of away to Varvenugen.
Yeah, Strud even called out his cover before he blew it. Amazing.
He forced the play wide and out of any danger area.
PDO: The centring pass was between Visnovsky and the net. That isn't outside of the danger area, in fact he deflected it into an even more dangerous area. Campbell blew by Vis and he stumbled making the turn. He got beat. No shame in that, and no shame in admitting it either. Everybody gets beat once in a while.
If Vis was playing with Smid instead of Strudwick, maybe nothing would have come of it. But I don't think it's right to just blame 43 for that one.
Men against boys tonight.
After seeing Detroit play last night I have to say Chicago might be ready to overtake the Wings.
Tim Peel is a joke… not a single call all game and you call that?
I think lining up:
X-Comrie-Hemsky
and playing them against maximally weak opp. is the best way forward.
I used to think it was a terrible idea because Hemsky was our best player, but Hemsky looks like he's ready for soft comp. only.
I like Penner on the PK.
I don't know, guys. If Hemsky plays like this for a few more periods I'll guess injury.
Comrie's play tonight is of the same quality as that Brick sofa I bought.
Oilers might want to hit someone
Strudwick suddenly thinks he's got soft hands like George Laraque.
Strudwick sucks.
Sure glad we got Strudwick out there tonight.
Sharp v. Strudwick
Mismatch
Call up Peckham.
He can't be worse.
That's a bad call. Holding, sure, but no way was he behind him.
LT: Hemsky was playing like this the last 15 games of last season. Part of the reason we collapsed.
15 games, 10 points, -2.
Strudwick needs to lay down on that play.
Pretty big rebound there.
Big stop there.
The Irish blender.
No surprise tonight. You can't sustain the losses of Souray and Staios for extended periods of time without adverse consequences.
Especially against good teams like Chicago.
Hopefully Souray is back on Friday.
Did Chicago beat up Comrie during recess and take his lunch money?
Zoooorrrrggggg!!!!
Strudwick… lordy.
Please Quinn just bench Strudwick and double shift Smid.
jon k: Those numbers are completely within his range on all fronts. Hemsky isn't playing at a very high level right now.
Still convinced – Oilers win this game.
Chicago has not been tested at all. The Oilers are going to get a few chances and pot two quick goals. They are lulling Chicago in right now.
Strudwick is who we thought he was.
The $50,000 raise just seemed unneccessary, and quite frankly, I think Theo Peckham would do a better job in his role.
Bookie,
You're off the deep end.
Gerry Dee sports reporter with the torn sweater.
Bruce Jr. with the big hit.
I think Cogliano gets the bump after tonight. Say what you will about the kid, he creates offence. It might behoove them to try him with 10 and 83 or 27 and 19.
The players need to follow the game plan, instead of taking low quality shots they need to start taking high quality 25% chances. Quinn laid out the gameplan, idiots! Follow it!
It's one thing that we're outmatched, but we're playing pretty brutal. Have we made one pass this game?
How many times have we been beat to an icing in our zone?
I mean heck when Moreau looks like the most dangerous Oiler in the Hawks zone, that pretty much says it all.
(Trying to think positive). Moreau hasn't taken a bad penalty in 20 minutes, so that's something.
After two periods no player has played less than Cogliano. Only 7:34 so far.
Bring back MacT.
Wow…not good enough, plain and simple.
JFJ and Zorg with a couple of good hits but as Andy says…that doesn't win you games.
10,93,19,91 invisible or worse.
Struds looks bad but let's face it he is #7 on our corps.
Bookie, the last time I've had this much smoke blown up my ass was by Saddam Hussein's press flack in March 2003.
I haven't checked, but it doesn't seem like good old Horcoff's won more than 30% of his draws. I think he won a few during the start of the first, but can't remember much after that.
Best Oilers this game so far
Souray, Nilsson, & Staios.
Noob:
6-6 50%.
Quain,
Or they could, you know, win a puck battle. Or at least not miss simple passes. Etc, etc.
quain – maybe so but the fact is that the Hawks so far have been just too good. Are they that much better? They are outshooting htem three to one.
Strudwick and Chorney on the back end.
Very few forwards stand out to me. I think 18-13-46 have been fine, certainly it seems the puck is in Chicago's end a little more when they are out there.
I would say that there is some try but the Hawks come in waves, they have, what, three good lines? Four?
Its not a fair fight.
Did 43 announce his retirement in the 2nd intermission or did I just Want that to happen?;)
It's a disappointing effort moreso because of all the guys who just look like they're intimidated or overwhelmed.
And, yeah, the 10-83 pairing being consistently outchanced probably means one or both guys are injured.
Bookie: You're starting to sound like the guy in Tin Cup. Lay up!
BDHS: That's why we shouldn't deal Cogliano until we know what he is. Stauffer was on the other day about having to decide between Cogs and Gags and that the choice was obvious.
Is that really true? Are we absolutely certain Gagner>Cogs?
Really?
You're both wrong. More hits, more high percentage shots.
I move Hemsky before I move Cogs.
Shots: 30-10
Score: 3-1
Doesn't seem like a fluke, does it? Men vs. boys. Oilers are trying, but Hawks are flying.
This reminds me of a Sharks game.
Traktor: You move Hemsky before we move Strudwick so that doesn't really help the conversation.
I don't know, guys. If Hemsky plays like this for a few more periods I'll guess injury.
That or he's not what we want him to be after all.
Either way, I'm getting fed up.
I think you're thinking of someone else.
9 saves outta ten.
LT – agreed
Two goals and five points playing mostly on the fourth line.
Give him soft minutes and a couple of linemates who can get him the puck and let him have it.
I like Gagner too but Traktor has been beating this drum for quite a while – Cogliano has proven that he can score. Last year he played with Moreau again, quite a bit.
Let him play with Penner and O'Sullivan or Comrie or put him on LW with 10/83 or 89/19.
I dunno BDHS, the Hawks are clearly better, but the Oil can be a bit better than this.
The forwards have to start breaking up Hawk rushes and the D have to win battles on the wall and in front of the net, IMO. We do have guys that can do that -Horcoff, Grebs, Gilbert, etc. They're just not doing it tonight.
And the less proven guys can be a little better, no?
Didn't Cogliano start out on the second line this season?
Thanks Quain!
My prediction… Pat Quinn after the game will say, "We plenty of mistakes, but we got beat by a better hockey club. Plain and simple…"
Another positive – Khabibulin has had a pretty good game, again.
As has Smid.
We were all kidding earlier today about how we knew it was going to come crashing back to earth any day now – well, today's the day. Hawks are a Cup contender though and the Oilers remain a borderline playoff team with luck.
IMO Gagner had his best games playing with Stortini. They didn't give up a scoring chance the first two games they played together.
LT: Those numbers are a 50 point, -11 pace over a season. It's a sad indictment of Hemsky if that's within the range of expected performance for him.
kris – sure they can be better but they came out and matched the Hawks push for shove in the first ten minutes or so, it was fairly even by my eye.
So the effort was there.
And then the Hawks just swamped them. They just kept coming.
jon k: Not so. Hemsky has certainly had 10 game stretches during his career just like that one. Not every period of games is the same as the previous one, and that is most certainly in the range.
Hemsky whiffs the shoot in for Pete's sake.
So the effort was there.
And then the Hawks just swamped them. They just kept coming.
Yup. Good teams outplay you. Great teams make you play bad. They force you to play their game their way, make you lose confidence, and get you off your game. I don't think we should be at all surprised at all that the Oilers look off their game. They're just not at Chicago's caliber… yet. Wait until Staios and Nilsson are back in the lineup
LT: It's not really a 10 game stretch when it's the last 15 games of the prior season, then this pre-season, then 6 games this season.
Brule with just a real nice play down low there.
Beauty save right there.
Waddaya know. A powerplay.
Penner-Horcoff-Hemsky! And suddenly Hemsky wakes up a little.
Tim Peel gets called out by the other ref. Nice to see.
They need to somehow score two goals on this PP…
tim peel
jonk: There's not much for me to argue here, you're right. Each 15 game period must be just like the previous 15.
I'll alert math, luck and random events immediately.
Grebs, buddy.
Pretty big rebound there.
These guys better be buying Khabibulin beer for the next week.
It's hard to tell which team has a man-advantage.
Hemsky is playing like he's not happy, his body language is showing his indifference.
Another massive rebound.
3 powerplay units.
They aren't using Hemsky to his strength.
Weird goal. I'll take it.
Penner scored and then didn't.
they have that wrong. It wnet of Chicago!!!!!!!!!!
Pennnneerrrr!
Aw, come on, ref. Give 'em the sympathy goal.
Even if it did go off Hemsky it wasn't a kicking motion! Tim Peeeeeel!
I guess own-goals aren't allowed in Chicago.
That's not even questionable. Totally a goal. After all, it always counts when Edmonton players kick the puck into their own net.
They have to count this. No one is that stupid.
If the Oilers ever get a point out of tonight, a lot of fans are going to have to start giving credit to Khabibulin. He's been furious.
LT: Agree there's a large range in Hemsky's performance. Technical term is "erratic".
If Edmonton wins this, Calgary's going to be wondering how we managed to steal their horseshoe, and how they can get it back.
Tonight is all part of the process. Everyone has been talking about Moreau and how he should be busted down to the fourth line.
And that's probably where he is at now. Fourth line guy who can fill in here and there when needed.
Now who is a weaker player on the Oilers? Stone. Jacques. Brule. Probably Stortini although I'm coming around with big 46.
Who on Chicago is weaker than Moreau?
And here Penner brings them within one. Heh.
I'll shut up now.
So you're sayin' there's a chance?
Bruce: Has Hemsky ever led the Oilers in total points over a season? Would that count as consistent?
Of course Horcoff doesn't put it in….
It would be nice if the Oilers followed up on that goal with slightly less ass-suckery.
I'm okay with Comrie blocking these shots. It's not like he was doing anything else…
LT: You're mis-interpretting what I'm saying by arguing that he's going to have ups and downs. I understand this.
My argument is that Hemsky's play and effort has been lacking since last season and his play this season has done nothing to dispel that.
Including pre-season there's now been a 20 game block where Hemsky's performance has been below average.
Eventually one stops worrying about regression to the mean and realizes that a new mean is being established.
Two questions:
1. Why are Smid and Chorney the defensemen backstopping the top line?
2. Why has Chorney played more than Smid and Visnovsky?
Bruce: Has Hemsky ever led the Oilers in total points over a season? Would that count as consistent?
Fair enough. In the big picture he's almost a point-a-game player. In the process he's all over the map. To my eye he's a little more erratic than many top snipers, but I don't have numbers to support that so stand ready to be corrected.
Big rebound there.
If the Oilers ever get a point out of tonight, a lot of fans are going to have to start giving credit to Khabibulin. He's been furious.
Toucheé, LT. I may be starting to warm up to this guy. And even when he's off, he doesn't make me as nervous as Roli did. Khabibulin just seems so much harder to rattle. And just infinitely better with heavy pressure close to the net. I like how he doesn't toss his stick out of harm's way.
ANOTHER big save! Awesome.
I'm going to miss Roli pretending like his mask got knocked off when he needs a break.
jon k: So, let me get this straight. Hemsky's been the Oilers best offensive player since the lockout ended and we're willing to say that he's regressing based on a 20-game (or so) slice of pie?
We know he isn't 35, we know he's getting chances but we don't know if he is hurt.
BUT we're prepared to adopt the idea that he's regressed because the calculator tells us so.
Lordy.
Gilbert and Grebs with an absolutely brutal shift. 2 terrible passes by 77 followed by a third from 37 leading to a penalty.
So, let me get this straight. Hemsky's been the Oilers best offensive player since the lockout ended and we're willing to say that he's regressing based on a 20-game (or so) slice of pie?
No, LT, because every year we tell ourselves that he will finally transition from having POTENTIAL to actually producing at an elite level. And despite how sexy his goals are and how deftly he moves the puck, he has never had an elite season. Not a single one. He has never even reached a point-per-game. Last year, he wasn't even in the league top 50. I'll say that again: not even in the top 50 point producers or goal scorers.
He's seven years into the NHL. You often say we shouldn't let a player go before we know what he is (Cogs in particular lately). But Hemsky's had seven years. He's a great player and I want him on the team. But at what point are people going to accept that he is simply not an elite player? He could be. He should be. But he's not. Nifty moves and lots of potential don't make a superstar. They make a Schremp.
LT: What about his significant concussion last season which happens to have been only a little before his downturn in play?
I don't know if it's fair to conclude this might be happening in a vacuum.
37's had some trouble with decison-making all night. Oilers having real trouble making the pass before the forechecker is on them. Even when they have time, they're waiting too long.
And we haven't dumped and chased like previous games. We're getting absolutely killed crossing the Hawk blue line and they still insist on carrying the puck in, often on useless solo efforts.
And that's the fork in the old roast.
Wonder if the Oil were out having teir own party in Chi-town last night? They've looked utterly gassed on a lot of shifts.
Nice of the refs to get involved at the end. Call on Grebs, then no call on Sharp on a blatantly obvious trip that led directly to the 4-2 goal. Thanks, Stripes.
I think there's still time for Hemsky, but even if he performs at this level for the next decade that's a fine NHL player imo.
Gagner just throwing his considerable weight around out there.
Of course now that it's a safe two-goal lead again, now they call one. Fuck I hate that.
Thank god Bucky drew up the PP.
I love that we get to send this game off with our lethal power play.
Cue Gord.
Love Tim Peel by the way.
Penner makes me laugh. He just layed in the crease for 20 seconds.
HOLY SHIT! It's in! Oh don't tell me that was Hemsky right after my Hemsky rant.
Too bad they still need another.
The whole time I'm thinking "Don't pass to Horcoff. Don't pass to Horcoff"
Oh NO!!! Who's the guy who always pops in to tell us Grebeshkov is the new Orr???
In, 5….4…3…2….
Comrie hung on to the puck for too long near the end.
Guess who's -1 without doing jack shit again?
Ryan Stone.
I think it's time for some Nilsson action!
The score doesn't properly reflect the performance of these two teams tonight.
No need for Vis to one time the last one. His defender was on one leg. He could have walked right in.
I was so sure…
When a goalie holds their team in it for a long long time, quite often you get a rally or two and a quick turnaround.
Not tonight though.
Doh. good rush at the end, but that stunk.
Penner was a beast. The guy left it all out on the ice. Too bad nobody else did…
They were overmatched for much of the game and gave up a plethora of breakaways (on a PS), 2-on-1's and close-in chances.
And they lost 4-3 to a helluva team.
Who said earlier that this is the year Chicago passes Detroit in the Central?
I'll second that.
Fun team to watch.
LT, this game could just as easily been 6-1.
SK, I think it was Scott Reynolds.
Does Penner start on line 1 against Minnesota? I think so.
Positives tonight:
1. Shawn Horcoff looked really good out there.
2. Quinn finally used common sense and demoted JF Jacques to his appropriate line. Hopefully, HORPENSKY is cemented for the rest of the season.
3. Khabibulin played solid and gave the Oilers a chance
Negatives
1. Mike Comrie's limitations are more highly exposed on the road.
2. Outshot by a large margin, providing numerous quality score chancing and not cutting down the shooter's lane.
The ugly.
1. Jason Strudwick. Has no business being in the NHL, let alone being a beneficiary of a one-way contract.
I expected a loss against one of the Western Conference's best team. The bigger story will be whether the Oilers can rebound and win against Minnesota on home on Friday. I suspect they will if Souray returns.
Penner was a beast. The guy left it all out on the ice.
Yes he did, had a fine game at EV and on both special teams.
Too bad nobody else did…
Dustin Penner: 2 shots, 3 hits, 1 block
Zack Stortini: 1 shot, 6 hits, 1 block
I wonder if Quinn is going to mention that gorgeous behind the back pass that theCaptainethanmoreau made towards his own end, giving the puck to the Hawks and then he slowly skated back while Toews gets an excellent chance? If you lollygag the puck up the ice and you lollygag in the corners and you lollygag making your shift change…. Do you know what that makes you?
http://www.mc79hockey.com/?p=3225
That's the way I saw it.
An honest effort. Lots left to be desired though. Things Edmonton needs to get better at:
1) Clearing the zone.
2) Finding the inevitable rebounds.
3) Clearing the zone.
Do those things or find the personnel to do them and the Oilers are a legitimate 4-8 team. Until then, I will have my next Keith's and get ready to head out the door.
LT: Many people talk about moving Hemsky. Any idea about his possible worth? (no..I am not one of the people talking about moving him)
This game is indicative of what to expect from the oil this year.They looked tired did not hit.The goalie held them in the game all night long.If the Oil do not out work and out hit the opposition. They will not win often this year.
Fat rebounds aside, it looks likely at this point that Khabby will cover the bet this year. I think you could say he made every save he should've this game, and a number that he had no business saving as well.
Going forward, there was a lot of lessons to be learned by the Oilers tonight regarding intensity and aggressive forechecking. My guess is that Quinn/Renney would ultimately like the Oilers to play like Chicago did tonight. When these two teams meet in November, I wouldn't be surprised if it isn't nearly as lopsided.
Also, keep the Nintendo line together.
And reading through the thread, I'm tempted to cite injury as well for Hemsky. Or supremely crushed confidence. There was one play in the 1st where he was taking it wide with more than enough speed to beat a Hawk 1-on-1, actually succeeded in getting around him, and then started gliding and was beat. Looked to me like #83 either didn't realize he had the ability to burn the Hawk or he was afraid to go into the danger zone. A microcosm of his season so far.
Hemsky would have exceptional value based on being 26-years old, having led his team in points and the fact that that team acquiring him would probably place him with two talented linemates every night.
Quinn needs to give Hemsky more PP time, that'll get him going.
Maybe Hemsky does not share Penner's joy with the new coaches? He may feel like they are trying to make him a checker…
I am not saying that is the case cause i have nothing to base it on, injury is more likely. Something to consider
Quinn needs to give Hemsky more PP time, that'll get him going.
Probably more Horpensky time as well.
The Oil had 20 hits on the game, 17 after the first 2 periods. They also beat the Hawks in the Giveaway column, Takeaway column, Blocked Shots and even FOs after getting killed early.
They got creamed in the shots column.
They did not make passes quick enough or crisp enough in any of the 3 zones, costing them dearly in their own zone. Braindead decisions by nearly everyone. No zone possession due to bad plays crossing the blue line.
They're hungover, but got some luck and great goaltending.
Hemsky's contract would make GMs toss their Viagara out the window.
They're hungover, but got some luck and great goaltending.
Well if THAT's all that's holding them back, they should have been reading this thread! Silly Oil.
Hemsky seemed to have some time at the end with Penner and Horcoff…is that a sign of things to come? I liked Penner before, but this season he truly does seem like a new player.
There was a quote the other day where 83 commented on how he was trying to find the balance from being more defensively responsible but he also had to play his way in order to create offense; not sure if that has anything to do with the early goings-on but I just thought I'd throw it out there.
Also, there was a quote from Quinn regarding an 83 shot block where he said "you have to respect the courageous side of it" which of course means he sees more sides to that play and he doesn't agree with all of them. That doesn't mean he was picking on 83, that means he doesn't believe in shot-blocking or perhaps playing tight to the points and you saw tonight how well that might go over if employed on a consistent basis.
The Oilers had a tough road tonight considering they were missing two vet D and they were playing one of the league's best teams – I eventually took them on Bowmans to lose by two goals so I just missed out;) – and they only played a little worse than I thought they might.
The good news is that we're getting a lot of offense from a lot of people and that's not usually the way it works for the Oil. Also, to note another small positive, by the eye I thought 41 looked good, and I always think of Brent Gilchrist when I see that number, and he came out fine with my SC metric as well. The kid didn't look out of place in the least.
If we throw up another stinker vs the Wild on Fri, we could be in trouble. But if we don't then maybe there's a little hope for us given the upcoming sked.
Two off topic things from the highlights tonight:
The 'canes new uni's are ridiculous.
Gaborik's goal tonight – even more ridiculous.
Agreed on Chorney. He has terrific speed and seems to have added some positioning and a germ of an idea about playing it tough.
The last time they drafted such a wonderful skater for the blue it was (I think) Tom Poti. This fellow seems to have a wider variety of skills.
Hey! They didn't get blown out of the water! That's something! Right?
Wally Bulin made some pretty spectacular saves and still looks as cool as a cucumber out there. Nice to see.
Strudwick had a bad night. A very bad night.
Hemsky and Horcoff both looked like they didn't know what they were supposed to do out there. I hope the coaching staff is paying some attention to them and not just worrying about the rest of the team. They look like they need some help. Quinn's Decoy Hockey can't be much fun for the teams two top players.
They still can't outskate the Hawks.
I might have some blinders on, but Comrie has looked pretty good every night so far. I love how he can create chances out of nothing.
Stortini needs an extra step if he wants to catch up to these guys. The Zorg Lean is pretty funny to look at.
Gagner…Did he play tonight? I was hoping for more since he was playing against Kane & Co.
Kind of a childish move by Penner to mention the coaching change. But that's him.
Fun game to watch. Lots of speed, giveaways, takeaways, rebounds, a penalty shot, breakaways, hits, and it was played clean for the most part which is always nice to watch.
OTC:
"our high end skill guys want to play a wide open game in a game like this, but what they find out is that they're not good enough to play a game like that"
Awesome.
Both Renney and OTC have said every chance they get that there are too many Lone Rangers on the team.
"Mr.Hemsky white courtesy phone, Mr. Gagner white courtesy phone"
Studwick, JFJ, Stone got exposed tonight. Badly.
I almost threw a brick threw the TV when 22 went behind the net with the puck and speed, had the other two forwards in front of the net, and when a defensemen who weighed 40lbs less than him got within 5 feet he dumped it to the open wing.
Chicago is the real deal though. Real good players all trying hard, skating hard, shooting hard, forechecking hard and making crisp passes.
Looks like the got rid of the wrong goaltender though.
OTC:
"our high end skill guys want to play a wide open game in a game like this, but what they find out is that they're not good enough to play a game like that"
Awesome.
Both Renney and OTC have said every chance they get that there are too many Lone Rangers on the team.
"Mr.Hemsky white courtesy phone, Mr. Gagner white courtesy phone"
Studwick, JFJ, Stone got exposed tonight. Badly.
I almost threw a brick threw the TV when 22 went behind the net with the puck and speed, had the other two forwards in front of the net, and when a defensemen who weighed 40lbs less than him got within 5 feet he dumped it to the open wing.
Chicago is the real deal though. Real good players all trying hard, skating hard, shooting hard, forechecking hard and making crisp passes.
Looks like the got rid of the wrong goaltender though.
Is it just me, or does Hemsky look slower?
Definitely doesn't have that same spring in his step as last season.
Quinn: Way too many solo efforts, D hung onto puck too long, tried to skate through the Hawks, looked scared to go into the boards, softest effort so far, score was flattering, skilled guys won't play away from the puck.
Pretty much confirming everything pointed out on this thread.
Also, there was a quote from Quinn regarding an 83 shot block where he said "you have to respect the courageous side of it" which of course means he sees more sides to that play and he doesn't agree with all of them. That doesn't mean he was picking on 83, that means he doesn't believe in shot-blocking or perhaps playing tight to the points and you saw tonight how well that might go over if employed on a consistent basis.
…or that he doesn't want his (theoretically) best offensive player breaking his leg on a shot-block.
Also, Just Say No to Jason Strudwick.
Kind of a childish move by Penner to mention the coaching change. But that's him.
If anybody's entitled to mention it, it's him. He was ragged on mercilessly last year and never retaliated or had a bad word to say in the media.
Three things the Oilers need to do:
1) Get rid of Strudwick. A massive liability on the ice.
2) Tell Hemsky to stop Schremping it up out there.
3) Avoid Chicago in the playoffs at all costs.
re: Strudwick. MC and others make the point about the 6th or 7th D not being likely to influence very many games, but this was one of them. Out to lunch on the first and third goals, plus the penalty shot (which should have been just a penalty, but still, he got burned bad), absolutely got turned inside out by Versteeg on another near-GA, and couldn't really handle anyone one-on-one. Just a tough night all the way around.
Chorney OTOH had a pretty strong game. Buddy can really skate.
3) Avoid Chicago in the playoffs at all costs.
Good luck with that. If they make the playoffs, it's as the 7 or 8 seed, and if Chicago wins the Norris…
Any idea of the Oilers are anomalous in this? If they're not, doesn't that undermine Corsi?
Steve: Yes, they are anomalous but not unique. A while back I did a review of about 8 years worth of games league-wide using that shooting/outshot metric, and the advantage to outshooting is significant (about 53% of awarded points) but far from overwhelming.
The Oilers have cut against the grain for many years. Even in their dynasty years (when that specific stat wasn't available) the Oilers routinely allowed more shots than they took over the course of a full (regular) season, even though they typically score 100+ more goals than the bad guys. They were an anomaly in that they consistently "rode the percentages". But obviously that was a very exceptional team.
Bruce, you're prefacing your numbers incorrectly. When you say win what you really mean is 'get a point.' It's fairly consistent that the Oilers WIN more when they outshoot, but that they get a higher percentage of points when they're outshot
Quain: No that is not true. I did indeed calculate Points% rather than Win% which is what is offered on NHL.com, but the numbers aren't that dissimilar. But since you asked, here are the Win% for the same 8 seasons:
Season: Outshooting / Outshot by
2000-01: .487 / .450
2001-02: .478 / .438
2002-03: .450 / .436
2003-04: .415 / .500
2005-06: .500 / .500
2006-07: .385 / .400
2007-08: .440 / .536
2008-09: .400 / .482
Mean***: .444 / .468
So closer, and you're right that there are more Bettman points in the "outshot by" games, but nowhere near enough to make up the gap. Still, point taken (if you'll pardon the pun).
And, I wouldn't really trumpet that trend as something not to worry about. In the (2) seasons where the Oilers have a higher percentage of points from outshooting games, they made the playoffs in both. In the (6) seasons where the Oilers have a higher percentage of points from being outshot they made the playoffs once.
Yes that is true, indeed I made that connection in my original post. When I said I'm not worried, I meant within the context of a given game. If, however, the Oilers develop a trend of outshooting but losing, then I'm concerned.
I'm certain a lot of outshooting is generated by game state — the team that is behind tends to push the play, but they're already behind so more likely to lose — and until we get a real handle on that we won't really understand the effect of outshooting. The Oilers are an interesting test case in that they have been such a consistent exception.
I'm thinking Penner would boost any other line on the roster than Horcoff Hemsky.
But then H&H would need a scorer on their line, which has been the problem for 2 years now, a few good games by Kotalik aside.
Bruce –
I think something could be said regarding shot differential. There is a big difference from being outshot 32-30 than being outshot 34-18. It's pretty apparent than when you're outshot at a 2-1 clip, that you're being dominated in terms of puck possession.
So… while I'd agree that being outshot isn't always going to be indicative of whether you win or lose, being outshot by a wide margin would indicate whether or not our team is carrying the play or being whipped.
I think as we all saw last night, our in zone coverage has to get a lot better. Too many in zone cross ice passes and clearing attempts from near or behind our blue line.
Did we see O'Sullivan up on the first line last night?
They also beat the Hawks in…Blocked Shots
I can't imagine how they managed that.
3) Avoid Chicago in the playoffs at all costs.
I'm going to boldly predict that the Oilers will not face Chicago in the playoffs this year. Or anyone else. So, um, mission accomplished.
Pretty easy to dump on Strudwick however he is the number 7D utility guy who had a strong game last time out when lots of posters were happy with his game????
We lost to a better team last night! our goalie kept us in the game big time and we were missing 2 key D men which may or may not have made a difference.
Where is everyone getting the Quinn quotes? There weren't any, at least that I could find, in the Journal or Sun.
Where is everyone getting the Quinn quotes? There weren't any, at least that I could find, in the Journal or Sun.
I was listening to the post game presser after the game.
The Oiler's post game interviewed Renney and then had OTC's presser.
Its interesting, both of them are harping on the "bad habits" that a lot of these players have.
I wonder how many of those bad habits are left overs from the previous system, and how many are just useless bad habits.
Sorry im not up on the hip lowetide "isms"
By OTC do you mean old time coach, refferring to pat Quinn?
Thanks in advance!
Sorry im not up on the hip lowetide "isms"
By OTC do you mean old time coach, refferring to pat Quinn?
Its not a Lowetideism, its my own personal one.
OTC = Ole Timey Coach
OTC beats an OF (Old Fart).
Of course, if you can say it with a Baaahston accent it has a little more style.
I think something could be said regarding shot differential. There is a big difference from being outshot 32-30 than being outshot 34-18.
JDR: Certainly something could be said. Unfortunately it can't be said based on NHL.com's "outshooting/outshot by" metric which treats 27-26 the same as 37-16. It's definitely a limitation to the method.
Wow… what a game…. by the Hawks.
That was total domination… what a fantastic looking hockey team. How in the world did they get down 5 goals to the flames? I sure know how the got the win though.
The one positive about teh HEatlet trade feasco…. all of Penner, Smid and Cogliano have responded very well. These three have been my favorites out there so far this season. Penner looks much leaner and fit, plus a bit angry, Smid has been playin ga very solid defensive role so far and holdinmg his own very well and Cogliano has the asset over all others (except Hemsky)… wheels, which seperates him from the others and is a great weapon at both ends of the ice.
And Bulin did everything he could do to shove it back into the Chicago managements face for the mistake they made letting him go.
Just as we expected… a great game to gage the team by and show managment the team weaknesses.
Any chance Chicago wants to trade away any of that young talent? ;-D
I'd be happy facing Chicago in the playoffs.
1). It would mean the Oilers actually made it.
2). I like the idea of Huet Vs. Bulin in a seven game series.
I like the idea of Huet Vs. Bulin in a seven game series.
Oh, me too. But playoff series traditionally also involve skaters, and at that point I become less enthusiastic.
A Rob Schremp Hockey disciple!
Apologies if this has been posted before.
Hilarious, Steve..
this is too…
"Its not a Lowetideism, its my own personal one.
OTC = Ole Timey Coach"
nice…