Splash Mountain

by Lowetide

The Edmonton Oilers won game 40 this season in Anaheim last night, keeping the pressure on the Los Angeles Kings and adding to the frustration of the Vegas Golden Knights. It’s unfair one of these three teams has to miss the playoffs, but it appears it’ll happen just this way.

Edmonton has 12 games left, going 6-6-0 lands the Oilers with a 46-31-5 record, 97 points. In order for Vegas to finish with 98 points, the Golden Knights will need to go 8-3-0. Can they go it done? Will Edmonton do better than 6-6-0? And down the stretch they come!

THE ATHLETIC!

WHAT TO EXPECT FROM APRIL

  • At home to: STL (Expected 0-0-1) (Actual 1-0-0)
  • On the road to: ANA, SJS, LAK (Expected 2-1-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
  • At home to: COL (Expected 0-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • On the road to: MIN, NAS (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • At home to: VEG, DAL, COL (Expected 1-2-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • On the road to: CBJ, PIT (Expected 1-1-0) Actual 0-0-0)
  • At home to: SJS, VAN (Expected 2-0-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • Overall expected result: 7-6-1, 15 points in 14 games
  • Actual April results: 2-0-0, 4 points in two games
  • Oilers in 2021-22: 40-25-5, 85 points in 70 games

Edmonton is now on pace for 100 points this season, Jay Woodcroft is 17-7-2 as Oilers head coach. The team began the season 16-5-0, meaning the middle portion (December 2 to February 10) was 7-13-3. Covid, 11 defensemen, slumps from at least one impact forward, but we are here.

GOALTENDER

Mike Smith stopped 31 of 32, .969 and several were point blank shots. Stopped eight of nine high danger and just one unusual moment (he stopped a shot from the point before he was able to get up) that makes one question is health and readiness for the long road ahead. He has an .897 SP for the season.

DEFENSE

Darnell Nurse took a penalty, blocked a shot or two, faced Trevor Zegras for 13:37 and won the shot and expect goals share. His coverage was solid, passing good. Cody Ceci picked up an assist, caught an edge late and ran straight into the end boards, the pairing played well and were low event on the defensive side.

Duncan Keith had three shots and three blocked shots, plus a takeaway on the evening, that’s all at five-on-five. I didn’t like either defender’s decisions in the moments before the Anaheim goal, but they did get it out, and Zach Hyman was unable to advance it further. The goal itself was good work by Zach Acton-Reese and a direct result of a juicy rebound. Evan Bouchard had six shots, made good decisions with the puck and defended well. Still a couple of hesitation shuffles in there, but he is playing and learning. Dave Manson is key to his development in my opinion.

Brett Kulak earned a contract last night, at least with the fans. I was a fan of this deal when it happened because of Kulak’s speed and intelligent play. I don’t think he’ll go 1-2-3 with a HDSC often, but my goodness he had a game. The pass to Leon for No. 50 was terrific. If Edmonton signs him, does that guarantee Philip Broberg starts his 2022-23 season on the RH side? Or does it mean Dmitri Samorukov is dealt over the summer? Something has to give. Tyson Barrie had a great night too, 1-2-3 and drew a penalty. You know, and it’s kind of crazy, but if Ceci gets to 30 points Edmonton will have five defenseman at that total or more.

FORWARDS

Zach Hyman had four shots on goal and four HDSC’s, but had a rare night where no crooked numbers appeared on the scoresheet. He is 24-23-47 in 64 games this season, and absolutely one of the keys to Edmonton’s success this season. I believe his game will shine in the playoffs. Leon Draisaitl went 1-1-2 with six shots on goal, and of course scored No. 50 for the second time in his tremendous career. He looked banged up late in the first, but came out for the second period and eventually scored late in the third. I don’t believe the Oilers would have let him play if there was great concern, we’ll see how the news of the day rolls out. What a splendid player. MacT got it right in a big way in 2014. Kailer Yamamoto didn’t get any points, but helped the puck land in good spots and posted good possession totals.

Evander Kane had two assists, four shots, two hits, took a penalty and drew a couple of penalties. He had one HDSC chance. Connor McDavid is flying every night these days, my goodness he’s a dangerous man. He scored No. 40 last night, appears determined to get 50. He went 1-2-3, five shots and three HDSC, all at five-on-five. Jesse Puljujarvi scored a nice goal, now at 13-21-34 for the season in 56 games. The opinions are now sealed on this player, people have decided on him. There’s room for disagreement on players, but I’m telling you if Puljujarvi is a player you can’t see as extremely valuable, I have to question your evaluation skills.

Derick Brassard had a takeaway but no real production and was 5-10 in on-ice shots. It worked early, isn’t working now. Bring back Warren Foegele is my solution. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins scored a great goal, love to see him shooting the puck well. He was 1-2-3 on the night, one HDSC and a giveaway. The team needs to find a way for the third line to shine. Zack Kassian had two shots and two giveaways, plus one HDSC. It’s a mean thing to say but he doesn’t impact the play often enough to play on a skill line. I would cash out the current wingers and run two of Foegele, Ryan McLeod, Derek Ryan or Dylan Holloway with Nuge.

Warren Foegele had two shots, a hit and a blocked shot on the night, he did some good work in transporting the puck to safety. Ryan McLeod had a shot, two giveaways and a takeaway, far more dynamic than Brassard on a line that played well less than the 93 trio. Derek Ryan had a shot, a HDSC and a blocked shot. Edmonton should never play Josh Archibald in front of him based on recent evidence.

LEON’S 50

We are experiencing history here, ladies and men. Take it from an older human, enjoy it. Don’t get caught up in the ‘how does Leon Draisaitl’s 50 goals impact Auston Matthew’s MVP chances’ because the point isn’t who’s better, the point is Leon freaking Draisaitl is a big man with elite skills and that’s a truly rare thing in hockey. Give Auston Matthews his due, wonderful player, but Leon Draisaitl should take a back seat to no one in the game, including Connor McDavid. Draisaitl has one Hart Trophy, there’s zero reason he should be excluded from consideration a second time. There are things about his game that make voting him the Hart (again) the right thing to do. I absolutely cannot stand when people argue down one player (or person) to elevate another. Only careful consideration, including usage, time-on-ice with elite players, time-on-ice against elite players, can help one draw a conclusion. We can say it’s close, and both 97 and 29 should be considered. After that, we have to see how this season plays out.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A massive sports weekend, we’ll review and look forward on the Lowdown. At 10:40, Tyler Yaremchuk from Daily Faceoff and Oilers Nation will join me to talk Golden Bears and Noah Philp. Jason Gregor pops in at 11 to talk Oilers, the Masters and who should start in goal tomorrow night. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!

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megahurts

I really appreciate Lowetide, his(your) blog, and the effect on the Edmonton community. Bless us all

DevilsLettuce

Leon Draisaitl has somehow scored 50 goals with Kailer Yamamoto as his most common line mate this season.

His last 3 years he’s averaging 123pts over 82games at a 1.5pts/game pace.. Whew.

Leon has 27pts in 21 playoff games, 11 goals and 16 assists

While Auston Hackthews has a pedestrian 13 goals and 11 assists in 32 playoff games..

Johnny Hockey.. 8 goals 11 assists in 30 career playoff games..

This is what some call 2 wrongs and a Draisaitl.

Ice Sage

Thank you Flegms.
It will now be up to the Oilers to take top spot from you.

OriginalPouzar

If I’m not mistaken, Oilers remain 1 point back of the Kings with two games in hand.

Of course, projecting it and doing it are two different things but, if the Oilers take care of their business on the rest of the California roadie, they’ll be looking almost locked for the playoffs.

Harpers Hair

Flames win 3-2

Harpers Hair

Chris Pronger with an amazing thread on Twitter…well worth a read.

Chris Pronger

@chrispronger

I played 20 years in the NHL.

I was one of the highest earning NHL players of all time. And friends with many other pro athletes.

My guess is more than 50% of pro athletes have financial issues in retirement.

Ranford.85

People that have financial issues after making millions, is something you consider “worth a read”?? Sounds sad and pathetic. Oh look, a double entendre.

Reja

He was the sharpest interview ever hilarious when someone thought they could one up him.

KassHat

Flames are in cap trouble in the summer, even if they find a sucker for Monaghans contract which will be no easy task. Johnny is probably signing out East.

Harpers Hair

Monahan and Zadorov will both be gone…that’s more than $ 10 million in cap space for raises.

McNuge93

How will Monahan be gone. Nobody will want him unless the Flames throw in some draft picks, which they don’t have.

Last edited 2 years ago by McNuge93
Diablo

No one’s touching Monahan now.
Philly clears out Giroux just in time to sign Gaudreau

Bank Shot

If they sign Gaudreau and Tkachuk they will lose Zadorov, Mangiapane, Kylington.

And they will have about $6 million left to fill out 7 roster spots.

Ice Sage

Flames are regressing to the Alberta grade A meat.
Will they hold onto 1st in Pacific?

Last edited 2 years ago by Ice Sage
jp

Will you be disappointed if they don’t?

Ice Sage

Nah – better chance for a battle of Alberta!

Harpers Hair

Just scored…2-2.

Gaudreau with a goal and an assist…both at even strength…he’s now up to 73 EVP which is just obscene.

Harpers Hair

Oops Gaudreau with another goal.

74 EVP.

Ice Sage

He is getting 11M+ on the open market next year.
Giving Matthews and Draisaitl a run for ‘second best player’ status

Ranford.85

Where has Gaudreau been the past couple years? Sure, he shows up for his contract year, highly doubt he puts up these numbers again. ‘Second best player’ should be awarded to those who are at the top consistently, year after year, like the other two players you mentioned.

Last edited 2 years ago by Ranford.85
jp

Great post, except for this part:

help us, Bruce Boudreau-bi… you’re our only hope”

The Oilers don’t *need* help or hope to do this, they just need to take care of their own business.

One other thing to add. While the Oilers haven’t had to push for a playoff spot for a few years, they’ve been pretty excellent in the ‘2nd half’ in recent years.
Last 30 games of:
19-20 .650
20-21 .700
21-22 .650 (though this won’t be the final number)

I think that bodes well for the stretch drive, and hopefully beyond.

Harpers Hair

Kings lead the Flames 2-1 at the end of one.

Adrian Kempe is one helluva player.

Tarkus

Came across this article about how the Medicine Hat Tigers are honouring the legendary Bob Ridley:

https://whl.ca/article/tigers-honour-legendary-broadcaster-bob-ridley

The man not only announced their games for eons upon eons, he even drove their team bus for many years.

Can you imagine how many stories he’d have in that cranium of his?

DevilsLettuce

Availability is the best ability.

DevilsLettuce

‘The Deutschland Dangler’ is one of two active players to go 50/100 in a season twice.

OriginalPouzar

Its only happened twice in the last decade:

2018/19 – Leon Drasaitl.
2021/22 – Leon Draisaitl.

Harpers Hair

Matthews has scored 253 goals in 6 seasons.

Draisaitl has scored 249 goals in 8 seasons.

Draisailt has scored 607 points in 8 seasons.

Matthew’s has scored 447 points in 6 seasons.

If Matthews scores 80 points in each of the next 2 seasons (he always does pro rated) he will surpass the Draisaitl rate easily.

jimmyneutron

Where does the above post mention Matthews? Or am I missing something?

jp

Weirdest thing, the Joe Colborne comps hardly get made these days.

It’s easy to forget how long this shit has been going on.

90s fan

Ya gotta get off of Toronto media man!

Those point totals are 76 per season and 75 per season. Kinda crazy close.

Now imagine if Matthew’s was Toronto’s second best player?

JimmyV1965

Their PPG is exactly the same

OriginalPouzar

Pro-rated…….that only matters with Lucic goals.

Durability matters and is very important – Nurse and Drai have added value given how durable they’ve been over the years.

Matthews is an absolutely elite goal scorer, best in the world, yet this is the first time he’s scored 50 and he’s never had 100.

Covid is an excuse (would the be 2nd) but that applies to Drai as well.

I’ve been consistent on this – have stated for years that Matthews is an absolute top player in the game if he could ever find consistent health.

jp

Just looking, Malkin did it just more than a decade ago. The only time he’s done it.

The other player is Ovechkin, who’s done it 3 times, but the last was in 2010-11.

OriginalPouzar

Exactly – only person in the last 10 years is Drai (twice).

Harpers Hair

Speaking of balance…the Blues now have 7 20 goal scorers.

Harpers Hair

Matthews 52.

Harpers Hair

Matthews 53

Harpers Hair

Matthews 54.

And an assist against the TBL.

Quite a statement game.

Stephen

The Oilers should trade Draisaitl asap. Clearly not as good as Matthews. They should have drafted Matthews 2yrs prior to his eligibility.

OriginalPouzar

That man can score goals.

Harpers Hair

Without the offseason wrist surgery and the resultant slow start, he would very likely be well over 60.

Harpers Hair

Worth noting…all 4 of his points tonight came at even strength.

godot10

Worth noting…only two more years on his contract. So the Leafs window is this year or next. To maximize his value, the Leafs might want to trade him this summer. Certainly next summer.

Harpers Hair

That would depend on what Mattews wants to do.

I’m sure the Leafs will have a good read on that.

jp

I’m sure the Leafs will have a good read on that.

Pretty sure they already do, after he signed the 2nd richest deal in the league that also sets him free at age 26.

DevilsLettuce

Historic performance for another one of your favorite underdogs.

Ice Sage

I wish there was a website where we could get this info – in the meantime, thanks HH!!!!!

maudite

When I opened TSN this morning, there isn’t even 10 articles in a row about AM today.

I was like: “what the hell! Where am I going to find more coverage of my man Austin? If they start slacking off pumping his tires now he ain’t ever going to win that vezina! I feel he’s being underhyped!”

Then I caught up here. Was glad to see you picking up the thankless torch of ensuring the public is aware at every moment what the Austinator is up to. McDavid mcshamid I say. If Austin and McDavid were drafted same year there is no doubt in my mind that Austin would have scored way more points than McDavid after McDavid got hurt. Therefore Austin he bestest.

Salty Fanboy

I know the eastern media is pumping the tires hard on Matthews, but really the leading candidate for the Hart has gotta be Josi. He’s likely to get to get more points by a defenseman in a single season than we’ve witnessed in 30 years. Maybe a top 20 of all time kind of year if he keeps pace.

Harpers Hair

While I tend to agree with you, it’s likely some voters will be swayed by Josi being the favourite for the Norris.

Pierre LeBrun polled all 32 head coaches for their Norris picks in an Athletic piece today and it was effectively a two horse race with Josi and Makar.

https://theathletic.com/3228027/2022/04/04/lebrun-we-asked-all-32-nhl-head-coaches-for-their-top-three-norris-trophy-winners/?source=user_shared_article

leadfarmer

I can’t imagine it not going to Josi
without Makar Avs are still a Presidents trophy contender
without Josi Preds are close to the lotto teams

Harpers Hair

The award is not the “most valuable defenseman “ but the “best defenseman “

Having said that, I think I would vote for Josi.

What he’s doing is historic.

Harpers Hair

The return of Grubauer may tip the balance even further.

When he’s good…he’s very good.

Harpers Hair
  • Should read Robin Lehner.
knighttown

Very interesting. I believe the “playoff mode” teams being the most dangerous but I’m surprised about the bottom feeders. That isn’t the case this year. Almost all are getting killed in their last 10.

OriginalPouzar

Skinner back to Bakersfield – I guess Mikko should be good enough to at least back up tomorrow.

OriginalPouzar

Fanti just arrived last night. He’ll need to go back to school for some stuff (a bit of back and forth) – hoping to find him a game this week.

OriginalPouzar

No Kane nor Drai at practice – Woody says maintenance days for both.

OriginalPouzar

Mikko was on the ice – Woody said he’s feeling a little bit better and was good to get a sweat out.

I wouldn’t think he’ll play tomorrow but probably Friday against the Kings. I think we’ll see Smith again tomorrow night.

Reja

Why would Mikko be starting for the Condors on Friday?

OriginalPouzar

Fuck, Thursday, whatever dude.

Reja

You keep saying they have a game Friday, they play tomorrow Tuesday against San Jose then Thursday in L.A they then come back home and play Saturday against Colorado.

OriginalPouzar

On Holloway – Gretz was glowing on his progress but the message seemed to be the same – “its a process”, “he’s in the right place”, “can’t forget he missed almost a full year”, etc.

OriginalPouzar

Injury updates from Gretz (on with Bob on Oilers Now):

Broberg – its actually an ankle, not the knee (his knee is fine) – he’s coming along and ahead of schedule. They want to make sure he’s fully 100% as they know that he could be needed in the NHL as well if there are injuries up on the big club.

Samorukov – it looks like his shoulder (he came up holding his wrist when it happened) but don’t really know the extent of anything and he’s seeing the doctors and getting the X-Rays and pictures today. Bob asked and Gretz did say there is some concern it will be a bit of time.

Marody – never said what is wrong with him but he’s coming along and should be back next week.

Lavoie – again, never said what’s wrong with him but, he’s like Sammy, in that he’s seeing the doctor and there is some concern on missing real time.

Reja

I just can’t bring myself to cheer for the Flames against L.A tonight. I do think L.A would be the best case scenario to play in round 1. I also thought with the Jets injuries that last years first round was a nice match-up for the good guys and we all know how that turned out.

kelvjn

Edmonton is now on pace for 100 points this season, Jay Woodcroft is 17-7-2 as Oilers head coach. The team began the season 16-5-0, meaning the middle portion (December 2 to February 10) was 7-13-3. Covid, 11 defensemen, slumps from at least one impact forward, but we are here.

Given Tippett had a similar early season record as Woodcroft, how much of the winning/ losing is on the coach versus circumstances(or the goalies)?

jp

it’s a great question. As I was not in favour of a coaching change, because imo the problem was the roste

I feel like this must mean you don’t think the Oilers are anything close to a true 16-5-0 or 17-7-2 team.

jp

My goodness, I’d forgotten the balance photo happened this season. That seems like forever and a day ago.

I took your pointing to ‘roster’ rather than ‘circumstance’ in response to the question above as a strong indictment. But yeah, what a weird season it’s been. And there’s a lot left to write.

I noticed Tippett’s last 8 games too, and also feel like Woodcroft and Manson have been a breath of fresh air. Interesting times for sure.

hunter1909

Respectfully disagree. The team(what was left of it lol) was practically in open revolt.

Woodcoach is a players coach, who listens and has the energy to make constant adjustments. Tippett, McLellan etc are like automatons – blithely opening and shutting the gate.

DevilsLettuce

EvenWoods even strength systems and deployment are in a whole different universe compared to what Tipps was rolling out there.

The players have expressed as much, especially the role players.

Scungilli Slushy

Woody changed their coverage and things got better. They were running really hot to start and when they went back to norms the 5v5 issues got them

The coverage affects goalies a lot. Several players commented on more clarity about assignments, there was confusion and that’s on the coaches, and it was the same issues over seasons

The player’s play the game, but the coaches are the leaders. Their demeanour, their enthusiasm, and their ask on how each player and the team plays is enormous

The best coaches get the most out of a roster. Tipp couldn’t for whatever reasons. He is well liked, but we see the difference

One that stands out is the team starts games 400% better. Mostly the same roster. Coaching, getting the team in the right head space

The goalies still play as always and are not any more reliable really. But the team doesn’t cave when the oopsies and softies go in

OriginalPouzar

Its hard to not think the current run is a bit more sustainable given its driven off 5 on 5 results and not a PP that is running off historically unsustainable rates.

At the same time, Woody now has a fully healthy roster with the additions of Kane, Kulak and Brassard. Don’t get me wrong, Woody and Manson are assuredly a large part of the current success but Tip never had this roster and this roster fully healthy.

knighttown

When was the last time we’ve had 5by5 splits like this?

Genjutsu

When Chris Pronger was here.

Bling

I really liked Nurse’s game yesterday. Yes, it came against a club battling injuries, but that Zegras line is no easy out.

The offensive zone penalty was not great, but I thought Doc otherwise kept his game a little simpler. He made a fantastic outlet pass in the first period, wheeling around the net to retrieve the puck at high speed and sending a crisp pass up the boards to KY that was on the tape.

Nurse definitely gets into trouble when he’s doing too much. With his physical gifts, that temptation will always be there.

A quick look at his counting numbers shows that Nurse is top 50 in the league in EV scoring amongst D whilst — unlike some players ahead of him — playing a heavy load of minutes against elite comp, all of which he does without an elite partner. You can argue back and forth about the contract, but Nurse is a 1st pairing D with upside remaining.

Also, Tyson Barrie had a hell of a game. He defended a 2 on 1 rush perfectly, laying the stick down to block the passing lane but not flopping on the ice.

hunter1909

Nurse is a lot of fun to watch. Some of the criticism stems from the fact he has too much to do out there.

Scungilli Slushy

With the discussion today and lately I was curious how the Woody Oilers compared to the teams we’re battling, and the better teams in the league on a few stats, all 5v5 and the last 10 games:

Oilers
GF 68 GA 54 GF% 55.7 SAT% 53.2 SV% .912 (7-2-1)

Flames
GF 61 GA 41 GF% 59.8 SAT% 56.9 SV% .926 (4-4-2)
Kings
GF 41 GA 52 GF% 44.0 SAT% 54.6 SV% .919 (5-3-2)
Kniggits 
GF 44 GA 45 GF% 44.4 SAT% 53 SV % .915 (7-3-0)
Stars
GF 43 GA 43 GF% 50 SAT% 48.7 SV % .922 (7-3-0)

Avs
GF 49 GA 37 GF% 56.9 SAT% 53.3 SV % .929 (8-1-1)
Wild
GF 60 GA 48 GF% 55.5 SAT% 52 SV% .922 (9-0-1)
Preds 
GF 47 GA 42 GF% 52.8 SAT% 48.4 SV % .923 (6-4-0)

Panthers
GF 56 GA 43 GF% 56.5 SAT% 59 SV% .918 (8-2-0)
Canes
GF 46 GA 35 GF% 56.7 SAT% 56.9 SV % .927 (4-3-3)
Bolts
GF 46 GA 39 GF% 54.1 SAT% 50.4 SV % .922 (6-3-1)

The Good Guys have gaudy goal totals both ways, the SV% is almost certainly hurting the GA. The Oilers are Panthers west.

Give them a goalie, a couple of Gators, and a little more time with Manwood and watch out!

Brogan Rafferty's Uncle Steve

Capfriendly has Skinner on an emergency recall. Did I miss this?

ChupaCabra

Yes. Called up because Koskinen is sick (not Covid) if I understand correctly.

jp

He even backed up last night.

Brogan Rafferty's Uncle Steve

Ok. Reading the comments and realizing I was out to lunch. Currently have the Vid so my brain is not working at max capacity.

OriginalPouzar

He was assigned back down this afternoon.

GordieHoweHatTrick

Hope you feel better soon!

DevilsLettuce

Oilers will hit 100pts, when generational players decide on a goal they typically find their way there.

Offside

The goal was always the Stanley Cup, right?

DevilsLettuce

Yes, yet their shorter term goal is getting the team to 100pts. They tackle that hurdle, it will instill even more confidence in the group. They’ll believe a trip to the finals is much more obtainable.

Harpers Hair

The CAL @ LAK game tonight obviously has significant playoff implications.

The Flames are currently -180 favourites although Marek and Friedman were speculating that perhaps Markstrom is tiring from over work and there is some evidence to support that.

In his last 5 games he has save percentages of .889 .839 .933 .938 (in relief) and .826 with a won less record of 2W 2L

Markstrom has already started 54 games while his career high is 60 so Sutter might be forced to play Vladar more down the stretch.

The problem with that is Vladar is a significant downgrade (.904 2.84 GAA) from Markstrom (.924 2.19 GAA)

The Flames have finally suffered a significant injury with Oliver Kylington out and Jusso Valimaki called up today to replace him.

If LA were able to win the game tonight, they would be only 1 point behind the Flames for 1st in the division, albeit with Calgary holding 3 games in hand.

Could be interesting.

Harpers Hair

A fun Kings stat I ran across this morning:

Consider this: The Kings have used 14 defensemen this season: Drew Doughty, Durzi, Matt Roy, Edler, Tobias Bjornfot, Mikey Anderson, Olli Maatta, Jordan Spence, Kale Clague, Christian Wolanin, Austin Strand, Sean Walker, Jacob Moverare and Troy Stecher.

31saves

The Oilers have used 12 so far!

leadfarmer

But Markstrom is starting.
Also I thought the Flames were not allowed to get injured and were going to have a full roster the entire way

Offside

Kelly Hrudey would offer to play goal himself to help the Flames win if he thought he could pull it off

Reja

Cassie will do it she’ll do anything for the Flames. MacT should take notes on what a true Homer is she puts him to shame.

Woodguy v2.0

Riffing on Maudite, HH and Knighttown to put all this info in one post:

The teams in the chase games over fake Bettman .500:
LAK +15 (11 GR)
EDM +15 (12 GR)
NSH +14 (14 GR)
DAL +13 (14 GR)
VGK +11 (11 GR)

Last 10 games:
LAK 5-3-2 (won past 2 games)
EDM 7-2-1 (won past 4 games)
NSH 6-4-0 (lost last game at BUF)
DAL 7-3-0 (lost last game at SEA)
VGK 7-3-0 (won past 5 games)

Games remaining vs Playoff Teams:
NSH 8
EDM 7
DAL 5
VGK 5
LAK 4

Home/Road splits remaining:
DAL 10 Home 4 Road
NSH 9 Home 5 Road
EDM 6 Home 6 Road
LAK 5 Home 6 Road
VGK 5 Home 6 Road

Prediction: It comes down to a regulation win count tie-break for last wild card spot.

Hope EDM continues on their good run so I can watch the battle for the wildcard/3rd in Pacific without clenching my buttcheeks/high blood pressure/high BAC

Justthestatsman

Agreed. The ‘come from in front’ victory like last night where they don’t give up the lead, as compared to the Kings and Blues games considerably lowers the buttcheek clench/60 count.

Last edited 2 years ago by Justthestatsman
N64

Pure divisional WC brackets if Pac 4th can nab WC1. Not as unpossible lately.

Last edited 2 years ago by N64
Harpers Hair

Worth noting

LAK are 20-9-6 on the road.

DAL are 21-9-1 at home

NSH are (as you mentioned earlier) 21-11-0 at home

Last edited 2 years ago by Harpers Hair
David

If Vegas makes the playoffs that has to be a notch for strength of schedule. They have so little track left I think they basically have no chance. Don’t get me wrong, I think they’ll keep it close the whole way, but my point is that closing that gap from keeping it close to actually making it is monumental with so few games remaining.

I think they’ll finish within 2 points of the final wildcard spot, but I still think it is a reasonable call at this late stage to write them off.

David

LAK +15 (11 GR)
EDM +15 (12 GR)
NSH +14 (14 GR)
DAL +13 (14 GR)
VGK +11 (11 GR)

Just soak these numbers in for a minute. Dallas and Nashville have 3 games at hand on Vegas. That’s 27% of Vegas’ total remaining games.

godot10

Games in hand is factored into those rankings, since the plus is relative to Bettman .500.

Harpers Hair

They go head to head on the road next week against the Flames and Oilers.

Pretty good chance those two games will decide it.

David

True. An Oilers victory against Vegas likely seals it. Losing means a lot of sweating. Several games before then however. Oilers need to get some points out the central.

knighttown

Terrific Darcy. Thanks for compiling this.

winchester

I would credit Godot who over three years ago stated that Leon did not need a shooter on his line, he is (or will be) the shooter.

Ryan

Why are we always waiting for Godot?

leadfarmer

speeds to confirm

godot10

Technically, I think I said it more about McDavid. I think McDavid should be scoring 50. I Like the two power forwards model with McDavid. Kane is close to ideal for one winger. All around power forward who can do everything pretty well. Jesse is just missing finish and the quick/reflexive tight space skill game, which hopefully he will improve on over time. He makes up for it by being elite at getting in the way of and disrupting the other team on offensive and defense.

winchester

I remember the McDavid comments as well. Connor still enjoys making a move and handing off the goal to the open man. Loves it.

Then when the clock is running out, overtime, or simply he gets fed up, he does it by himself and often ends up with a goal. Leon heard you, he worked at it. Connor not quite. He worked on his one timer and then put it away. Just stop monkeying around Connor and put in the net.

winchester

My game comment yesterday was to sit Leon. His determination and desire to play in the moment could potentially worsen any injury.

But He could not be held back. The desire by both him and his teammates was too strong. Congratulations to Leon and team who wanted him to get there, they know how hard it is and they know how easy it could be to come to a halt.

Watching the celebration really was enjoyable.

Genjutsu

He’s a pretty stoic guy and it was pure joy to see that smile on his face.

Reja

Can’t wait to see him raise the Cup.

Genjutsu

Yes.

Randle McMurphy

Randle is a self described Sargent Schultz, “I know NOTHING!”

But here’s what I think is happening.

!) Unless Mikko’s illness is persistent, Skinner will not see any ice time on this road trip.

We have a non-physical defense. Salvation Lies (With) In …. moving the puck quickly. A puck moving Mike Smith might be the key to overcoming our liabilities on defense come playoff time. We’re gonna ride this horse.

2) Holland will not bring up any young Dmen (or forwards for that matter) the rest of the way; Kris Russell will be the 7th D.

3) because Bouchard scares me at times, I wonder if we see Kulak on the right side at any point in the playoffs

4) We are going nowhere in the playoffs without a fully functioning 3rd line. Something has got to give. I think it will involve Ryan McCleod and JP.

5) I expect a lot of the vets to up their game come playoff time; Keith, Barrie, Russell, Ryan (if given 12+ minutes), Shore, Brassard, maybe even Kassian.

Last edited 2 years ago by Randle McMurphy
McSorley33

Both the Blue’s crew and the Ducks crew mentioned the Oilers inability to defend.
( more generally team D and our collective ability to defend than our specific D core)

I don’t think this is any secret as many have been pointing this out for a while.

Last night, Brian Hayward – mentioned that our head coach agreed with how not good
our team has been defensively. Woody explaining that Oiler team D is a ” A work in progress”

Which is very diplomatic of Woody, but honest.

Oilers sit 22nd in goals against.

Just ahead of Ottawa and Seattle

jp

13th in GA/game since Woodcroft. Immediately behind FLA, LAK, VEG, and ahead of WSH, STL, MIN, NSH, TOR since Feb 10th.

There is work to do, but the Oilers are not as bad as people are making out.

pts2pndr

There is also a case to be made re all the injuries to left side D in a short period of time with 2 rookies playing the left side.

Melman

Unless/until Holloway comes up, I’d give Nuge 71 & 37, and run the 4th with a combo of Brassard, Shore, Ryan and Kassian.

Skinner should stay now that Bake is in the playoffs and put Smith back on IR. Suspend Archie and bring in Holloway so he can play NHL games before the playoffs start.

McSorley33

The club was willing to roll out Archibald on a 3rd line spot for a few games Despite missing a year etc, etc,

I see nothing wrong with a short audition for Holloway at the same spot – 3LW.

Assuming we have a spot secured by the end of the season – the last 2 games are against San Jose and Vancouver. Seems like a good spot for a test run.

OriginalPouzar

Professor Q

 Reply to OriginalPouzar

 April 4, 2022 9:10 am

You did say at one point that he if he wouldn’t be playing some of the final 12 games, he shouldn’t play the remainder of the game, which seemed to imply that you knew something that the others here did not.

Not at all – what I was getting at when I posted that is that there are 12 games left in the season – there is no pressing need to get 50 last night.

If Leon isn’t playing in those 12 games because of this injury (or even the next few games) then he clearly shouldn’t have continued last night. I wasn’t implying that he wouldn’t be playing, simply that “getting 50 last night” didn’t seem like it should be a thing given how many games are left.

barry.moore23

Do you go to many Oilers or Condors games ? Just curious. Lots to see away from the main play that TV often does not capture. Live games are so fun even if they are Coyotes games 🙂

TruthHurts98

Ask any GM if they could choose between Leon and Matthews. The answer is obvious. But the media keeps harping on the false assumption Leon and Connor play on the same line. Both Leon and Connor should be top 3 for the Hart voting, but it’s possible that neither gets selected. It would be a shame. But like Connor says, the only trophy that really matters is the Cup. Under Woodcroft this team is competing and playing so much better.

JimmyV1965

I don’t know if this is true and certainly undersells Matthews. I love Drai and would take him ahead of Matthews every day of the week, but I’m sure there are many GMs who would prefer Matthews.

For some context, their PPG is identical at 1.11 and goals per game is .65 for Matthews and .46 for Drai. One scores more. The other sets up more.

The Toronto media may suck, but they’re both great players.

knighttown

This isn’t true at all. Whether it’s fame, draft position, McDavid effect or Centre of Hockey Universe bias I’d guess 7/10 would choose Matthews.

I’d think long and hard about it too.

McSorley33

Ducks broadcast said Warren Foegele has only scored 2 goals in the last 23 games.

Robert Thomas played a key role for the Blues when he could not shave.

Dylan Holloway is 20 years old. 6 1′ over 200 pounds.

I would like to formally approve Dylan getting a shot at the 3rd line LW.

Speed and better hands for RNH.

TruthHurts98

After watching Smith a little bit last night, I cringe thinking of him against a contender swimming around on the ice. I’m guessing he’s playing hurt again, the awkward movements especially in the 3rd are troubling. Play Skinner against the Sharks if Mikko needs more time off.

OriginalPouzar

Tyson Barrie did have a good night and I would say he’s been one of the team’s top and consistent d-men over a long stretch – seems like a good 6 plus weeks. Of course, Barrie will have some tough moments losing battles in the defensive zone but he’s “stopped” the 30/70 pinches at the blue line and in the neutral zone and has been moving the puck well in the 3 zones. He’s been a good player and is starting to see some real point accumulation.

He may not play out his contract, heck, he may not play out the next two years and the management likely needs to move him this off-season but he’s playing well in the moment and his is tradable for some value, no need to eat any poison pill for Tyson Barrie.

dustrock

He’s been better with Woodcroft/Manson for sure.

Munny 2.0

The improvement on pinches by all the Dman has been a function of the forwards pulling their heads out of their asses, to my eye.

I also don’t think that in regular game play they’re pinching less. But they do seem to be more careful and willing to back off when the game state recommends they should.

Man, I wish we had stats for this. All the teams do, we don’t.

jp

How do you know we don’t?

OriginalPouzar

It seems a fairly common theme recently for the Nurse/Ceci pairing to have a bit of wobble on the ice (i.e. they seem to get beat by a seem pass nightly) and have some good/solid results via possession, expected goals, etc.

What I think is important context is that Manson is using this line massively agains the opponent’s top talent.

As I said, some real wobble via the eye test nightly but, given the task they are being asked to perform, great job by this duo nightly.

Last edited 2 years ago by OriginalPouzar
McSorley33

Completely agree.

Quite a few seem passes again last night.

No idea if it is team structure or certain players….

In Football, they call them ‘explosion plays’ ..

leadfarmer

Im still hoping for a Calgary Vegas first round matchup so Vegas beats the Flames and we hear the Flames cry about salary cap loopholes all summer

maudite

Id love it if today’s current standings were final.

Colorado vs Vegas
Calgary vs Nashville
LA vs edmonton
Min vs st Louis

Vegas with the cheat code and being the biggest team in NHL could likely take avs out. I also doubt they will suffer from uneven reffing as they surely are in the bettman’s best interest of growing value if they win basket so likely the most balanced called opponent avs could face.

Nashville is 2nd highest hitting team and might make Johnny hockey dissappear plus have the type of goalie that could win a game of goalie. But even if they don’t:

Flames could very well face Vegas 2nd round. That less than impossible upset would mean oil’s path to conference would be:
LA
Min or st Louis

That’s about as ideal as I could draw up.

Last edited 2 years ago by maudite
Jaxon

Magic #97
The road gets easier with each win. After last night the Oilers would need to go something like 5-5-2 to get to magic 97. An upcoming 3-game losing streak might seem like trouble, but they’ll still be in good shape. I’m sure they’ll win some of the games I have down as losses or ties. They’re building the breathing room to have those losses or ties right now though. Here is what 5-5-2 might look like:

#71-EDM@SJS-W
#72-EDM@LAK-W
#73-COL@EDM-L
#74-EDM@MIN-L
#75-EDM@NSH-L
#76-VGK@EDM-W
#77-DAL@EDM-W
#78-COL@EDM-L
#79-EDM@CBJ-L
#80-EDM@PIT-T
#81-SJS@EDM-W
#82-VAN@EDM-T

Jaxon

It won’t look pretty and I’d rather they enter the playoffs on a heater, but if they win the next 2, they can limp into the playoffs at 3-5-2 in their last 10 games. They’ll be in the playoffs, but let’s hope that’s not the case. Let’s hope they finish with something like 7-2-1.

Randle McMurphy

Faceoffs
PK
Defensive acumen
Sublime passing.
Lethal one-timer
Goals
Points
Fully Half of McDrai

MVP in my books.

Hart Trophy?….”It’s Coming”

But then I live west of Young Street.

I would give the big fella the Lady Byng* as well if weren’t for all those sneaky hacks and elbows. 🙂

#ItsComing
.
.
.
*or as his detractors (those living east of Young Street and in Cowtown) would call it the Lazy Byng)

Funny thing how Elephants look so slow, when in reality they can bull rush you and kill you in a heartbeat..

#MajesticBeast

#JustDon’tPissHimOff

Last edited 2 years ago by Randle McMurphy
ArmchairGM

That’s “Yonge” Street. And most of the GTA is west of it, so…

Genjutsu

Yes and I imagine it gets kinda Sens or Habs if you go to much East too.

Durag

Draisaitl for Hart is paying 12-1 right now. I just laid down $25.

Kinger_Oil.redux

– Didn’t watch game. Was at Lowrys homecoming (which was excellent). I’ve never been to a live game where a beloved winner who left came back and no animosity. Really great night for Lowry his family amd fans. Crazy that he hadn’t been back since winning the championship.

– They really are going with Smith at all costs. I just can’t see how it works out but god bless their blind spot. When I looked up the score I just assumed Koski started based on recent games.

– A few weeks ago I had suggested what I figured was the ideal usage of the three goalies: 1-2 starts for Skinner 3-4 for smith Amd every spaced out game for Koski to get him ready for playoffs. With the caveat (which was correct) that Smith would ultimately get the bulk of starts

– I mean just win baby but it’s been astonishing over the years how much rope Smith gets and lack of respect for Koski. I don’t get it. I would hate to be part of an organization that rewards plays and starts for things other than actual results.

* maybe Koski was injured and couldn’t start. If so carry on.

jp

Yes, Koskien came down with a (relatively) late non-Covid illness. 99.9% sure he’d have started otherwise.

OriginalPouzar

Ya, Mikko was slated to start.

Smith did say he got the call in the morning so he knew all day – interesting that the intel on it was like less than an hour before the game.

Org holding out for hours on that one.

jp

Not showing their hand before they had to is not a bad thing.

OriginalPouzar

For sure but, at the same time, that’s always the case and starters are announced well before game time. Woody is actually pretty good at announcing who will start – almost always the day in between games unless there is a real decision to be made (or so it seems).

I have a feeling the org was in the know about the vibe of the fan-base related to Smith and held off on the intel do keep things calm.

Could be wrong – doesn’t really matter.

jp

Oh yeah, that hadn’t occurred to me (and I guess I hadn’t thought about how consistently we do know the starter in advance).

Another possibility for how it played out is they didn’t want to publicize that Mikko was sick in case Skinner didn’t make it in time and Mikko ended up needing to backup.

OriginalPouzar

Ya, good point, fair enough.

Either way, I was surprised when Smith said he knew in the morning given how late the news on it came out – a few legit potential reasons for that it seems.

dustrock

One of the things I like about football (soccer) is that there are XI positions, and every one is vital, but usually in a different way.

In hockey, it feels like people expect skill forwards to all be the same.

To use soccer numbering, people want Puljujarvi to be a #9 or #10, but he will never be that type of flashy player. Instead, he’s the box-to-box mid wrecking shit up in the middle of the pitch and getting the ball to his more obviously skilled teammates.

This type of player doesn’t usually show up on the scoresheet but sometimes become the linchpin to the victory of the team.

Jesse doesn’t have an elite shot and he sometimes skates to odd places, but he’s the best defensive winger on the team and he’s a beast and he knows his strengths.

https://twitter.com/NHL_Sid/status/1510794044288356359?s=20&t=bzgSX7JQLApvZYtO25_ttQ

Sid
@NHL_Sid

Ever since Woodcroft’s hiring, Puljujarvi has a 71% expected goal share, and a 73% high danger chance share. Edmonton has outscored the opposition 15/1 (94 GF%) with him on-ice. That’s insane.

Last edited 2 years ago by dustrock
Benign Bone

It’s actually now 17-1 on-ice GF since Woody took over, but yes, it’s the Era of the Bison King! Offseason priority #1, #2, and #3.

Last edited 2 years ago by Benign Bone
Scungilli Slushy

A player that drives play like that with anybody and doesn’t score himself a lot has unbelievable value to a strong team

And has the most fun on the team while doing it. That is one rare hen’s tooth

Many predicted he would be the better overall player 5 years post draft and it’s true. Laine can score more but is a defensive liability still while not being an elite scorer or durable. At 6 times the cost, 7.5M this season

McSorley33

Well put.

northerndancer

JP as prime Steven Gerrard or equivalent. I can live with that.

Randle McMurphy

Splash Mountain! haha

Leon posing with arms raised just as the camera snaps his photo.

You can tell he’s done this before. 🙂 …… (knew right where to look and when to smile)

#50!

#ArmsRaisedBigSmile

Last edited 2 years ago by Randle McMurphy
Randle McMurphy

#MountainOfAMan

Last edited 2 years ago by Randle McMurphy
106 and 106

The Athletic in their Power Rankings giving the gears to the Oilers D.

Just don’t see how it improves next year…

Barrie gone
Kulak in

Even if Broberg and Niemo replace Russell and Barrie still a young, learning D.

That does spell trade.

jp

This power rankings?
https://theathletic.com/3223182/2022/04/01/nhl-power-rankings-rangers-increase-their-standing-after-strong-deadline/
They don’t even directly mention the Oilers D.

Anyway, I think the Oilers defensive issues are a bit overstated. They’ve had some adventures recently, but they’re an average defensive team under Woodcroft (and elite offensive team). 3rd and GF/60, 13th in GA/60. SV% is even above average (13th).

Fair that they’ll remain pretty inexperienced next season, but also fair (IMO) to expect some continued growth and a quieter game from Bouchard.

Beyond Barrie for cap space I’m not sure what kind of trade you make unless you want to move Broberg out, and I don’t see doing that, myself.

Scungilli Slushy

Holloway is going to make the team next season barring further injury, it’s the only thing holding him back

A GM that wants to win when his stars are in prime pushes and takes some calculated risks to maximize everything

You don’t keep both JP and Yama, take advantage of Holloway’s ELC. You have to keep JP, he’s already a more impactful player and has a lot of ceiling yet to hit. Yama is at his pretty much, and is a fine player that will bring a strong pick or player. For once knock on wood players on contract years are moveable for enough value

Barrie bcs cap. Kassian bcs cap. Possibly Foegele. He’s earning his pay but that can be replaced for less cap IMO (although I’m not confident Holland can do that)

That’s 11.625 M I believe including Yama but not his raise. Koski’s bloat coming off as well

There is room to move if you make it, as good GMs do. If Klef stays LTIR and Smith goes there (looking more likely to me) even more

LTIR manipulation is endorsed by the league. You can’t lie but you can push it. How can anyone say Smith is fit to play? I’m sure most NHL vets would qualify medically for LTIR based on accumulated injuries

OriginalPouzar

I’m not quite sure how JP has tons of runway left before he hits his ceiling by Yamamoto is already at his. Yamamoto is 6 months younger and, by eye, continues to improve his game.

31 saves in an NHL victory probably leads to the “fit to play” label.

Yes, one can push the LTIR boundaries a bit but that requires the player to be on board and i don’t presume Smith has any plans to sit out next year on LTIR – he may end up there at some point next season but I don’t think the Oilers management can count on that heading in to off-season team planning.

Scungilli Slushy

It’s Jesse’s physicality that is the difference

Yama is physically developed as small men do younger

Jesse is a dominant player. If he can learn to score 25 he will be in the convo with some of the great two way guys

Yama is a good player, similar in that he is also a disruptor. We’ll see how he does as it goes

I wouldn’t move JP and if I had to choose 3 of 4 I’d rather have Kane JP and Holloway

jp

There’s a ton of moving parts, but I think you can have all of Puljujarvi, Yamamoto and Holloway on the roster next year. Hopefully all (still) on value contracts.

Exactly how things develop is almost impossible to predict though. And I think the remainder of this season (+playoffs) is likely to impact what we think we know today.

It does seem inevitable that one or more veteran Oilers will depart this offseason to clear cap. We’ll see what that looks like.

I do agree that Smith is pretty likely to end up on LTIR, though the whole range of outcomes remains there as well IMO.

Scungilli Slushy

I think that is likely . Kane is so good with this group I would move lesser guys to fit him in

McNuge93

Yes, with tight cap I don’t see major improvement to the D. But, the biggest improvement they can make and where Holland has to make a move is goaltending. God help us, if he goes with Smith and Skinner.

Ryan

The problem next year with Smith is what do you do with him?

He’s a 40-year-old goalie with poor lateral movement and a sub .900 SV percentage.

I don’t know what you’d have to package with him to move his contract, but it wouldn’t be trivial.

You can’t fake injury and have him ride out the season on LTIR.

OP mentioned the best option is to send him to Bakersfield, but then you still have some dead cap.

Next season we still have

Looch: 750k
Neal: 1.9 m
Sekera: 1.5 m
Smith Buried penalty: 1.1m

That’s 5.25m in dead cap. Not to mention we’re paying Keith $5.5 m (cap) to patrol the bottom pairing.

Throw in the new Nurse contract and raises for Yamamoto and JP.

We still need a starting goalie, but money is getting tight really fast.

Last edited 2 years ago by Ryan
OriginalPouzar

Improvement to the D could also come internally.

Nurse could be better – there is still room for growth in his game.

Bouchard should be better.

Ceci priming.

Kulak priming.

Broberg should be better – be it 6D or 7D or call-up.

Niemo should be better. Sammy should be better.

Those last three didn’t play a ton of games but they got wet feet and will be better and better prepared for their roles next season.

Harpers Hair

Actually, based on aging curves that I’ve posted before, Nurse should start a slow decline.

OriginalPouzar

Yes, the about to turn 32 year old Josi is really showing that the just-tiuned 27 year old Nurse should start to decline any minute now. Closer to home, Cody Ceci showing the same.

jp

You make it sound like no other teams in the league have cap issues to sort out for next season.

I wonder also how hard it would be to trade Smith. He’s not making a lot. He’s got a reputation as a leader. He had a great season last year, and there’s an injury excuse for his results this year.

Dreidger, Samsonov, Georgiev, Korpisalo all have sub-.900 SV%’s and folks are still talking about them as trade targets. Holtby got a $2M UFA deal on the back of consecutive sub-.900 years. Brossoit alternates sub-.900 seasons and got a richer UFA deal than Smith.

I’m not sure it would cost more than a late round pick to move him.

And on the LTIR thing, if he actually can’t move then it seems like that would be a legitimate possibility. Folks are saying nightly that he ‘looks’ injured, so I can’t imagine the LTIR option is off the table.

Ryan

Dreidger, Samsonov, Georgiev, Korpisalo all have sub-.900 SV%’s and folks are still talking about them as trade targets. Holtby got a $2M UFA deal on the back of consecutive sub-.900 years. Brossoit alternates sub-.900 seasons and got a richer UFA deal than Smith.

He’s 40. 40-years-old. How many of those other goalies are 40?

The closest buyout I can think of is Brooks Orpik, with a $3m cap vs $2,2m x 1 year for Smith.

The Caps packaged Grubauer with Orpik and got a second round pick back.

Grubauer obviously had tremendous value.

I respectfully disagree. I think it would cost more than a late round pick.

The Leafs paid a first for $6.25m x 1 in 2019.

I think it would be a second or third.

Last edited 2 years ago by Ryan
jp

None of the others are 40, clearly. If Smith was 27 and coming off a .923 and an injury plagued .897 he’d be easily trade-able for significant assets.

Orpik’s cap hit after buyout was $3M, his cap hit was $5.5M (and I didn’t realize that’s how the Avs got such a good deal on Grubauer). Smith can be buried for less than $1.1M, so it’s not really a comparable at all.

Likewise Marleau. He had had a NMC and it looks like the Canes ate his entire $6.25M cap in buying him out. Marleau is kind of also the prime example of the most ever paid to dump a players cap. For instance the Coyotes took on Datsyuk’s entire $7.5M cap in exchange for pick #53 and moving up from #20 to #16.

Anyway, yes, we will have to disagree on the cost (and in any case, I still think LTIR is the more likely outcome).

knighttown

LT, I agree with you on your statement about posters feeling they need to shit in Matthews in order to give Leon his due. If you think AM34 is in a different tier than Leon (either way) you’re wrong.

I find the same thing around here with anything HH posts. He has this incredible ability to back you into a corner and all of a sudden you’re defending the indefensible and looking incredibly stupid.

Strength of schedule. HH and a group of us has been highlighting the differences in strength of schedule but because he’s involved, some people on here are now actively mocking strength of schedule as a factor.

“Stars lost to the Kraken (on a back to back at the tail end of a road trip). Haha. Competition doesn’t matter. HH is a moron.”

Guys, if you can argue that competition doesn’t matter while watching Anaheim, Arizona and San Jose roll over and play dead…as LT says…I have to question anything else you’re evaluating.

Here’s what I know about strength of schedule in the last 20 games;

  • the dregs will be abjectly terrible. This does NOT mean they will go 0-20 so please don’t point to random wins as anything more than random wins.
  • the elite will be very good but perhaps vulnerable as they don’t have the desperation of…
  • the bubble. Oilers, Kings, Knights, Wild, Nashville, Dallas, St. Louis are all ranging from “playing well” to “absolutely on a tear”.

There’s no harm in saying that the other teams have more games left against the dregs and that if the Oilers can’t sustain theres a road there for he Kings and Knights to get to 97+

Brogan Rafferty's Uncle Steve

Great post. Especially, the part about HH.

HH has made enough false and outrageous claims (Joe Colborne, Wild winning multiple cups, Brogan Rafferty being more valuable than Bouchard or Bear, etc.) one does not need to resort to denying obvious truths.

Harpers Hair

Just you wait until someone drafts Rutger McGroarty.

McSorley33

Exactly.

Woodguy v2.0

Love me some KT

OriginalPouzar

Of course strength of schedule matters but, at the same time, HH’s projections based thereof are fully narrative driven.

Countless times over the course of three seasons, he has projected and Oilers demise and/or and Oilers rival massive rise based off of strength of schedule – wrong every time.

The “rubber was going to hit the road” on the Oilers due to strength of schedule like 4 different times this year – yet, here we are, 12 games left and the team is rolling and firmly in a playoff spot (not locked).

The SE roadie, the game in Denver – nope, didn’t spiral the Oilers’ season downward.

Its tough to have an honest conversation with that information posted is not done so with honesty in the first place.

knighttown

He’s right about an awful lot too tho, if you’re being honest. He predicted the Flames torrid middle season run based on surviving an awful schedule in the early season.

I remember it enraged some posters to the point of defending silly positions like “the Flames are bad at home so playing 20 of 28 won’t help them”. I don’t recall any posters owning up to that either.

Kert

If you’re right a lot and wrong a lot, you might just be loud.

knighttown

Haha. True

Side

HH moves goal posts every day though. He has predicted torrid runs for other teams which never came to fruition as well. He also predicted the Flames would be worse then they were this season.

I can’t remember a single unique prediction HH has made which turned out right, where he didn’t have to move a goal post to be right.

Side

As a reminder also, the silly position you are referencing was also a position that HH has stood behind before. I have lost track of the number of times the Oilers had an easy strength of schedule but HH would discredit it by pointing at the Oilers home and or away record.

godot10

Somebody willing to launder Matthews underpants.

Silver Streak

Can we get Noah Philp signed before Calgary does ?
6ft 3ins. Right shot centers with hands don`t grow on trees.

Last edited 2 years ago by Silver Streak
106 and 106

Yes please

Shamus23

Not sure he goes to Calgary. His brother has not been given a sniff of the big club yet. Could be a difference, but hearing he is very good. Always can use a big C man

Scungilli Slushy

Biggest hole in the forwards is a solid RS face off guy under 35

€√¥£€^$

And wheels