Desjardins NHLE’s for Oilers F’s

With the World Junior’s pretty much in the rear-view and the Oilers pretty much in the ditch, I thought it might be a time to post NHLE’s for the current prospect group. If I’ve missed anyone please let me know, the forwards this morning and the defenders this evening.

One thing that really comes to the fore this winter: some of these young men are extremely unlikely to be considered Oiler prospects a year from now.

This is per 82gp.

  1. J Eberle 25-28-53
  2. MPS 19-22-41
  3. L Omark 24-15-39
  4. R Nash 12-19-31
  5. P Cornet 11-19-30
  6. C Vande Velde 11-17-28
  7. T Rajala 11-15-26
  8. T Hartikainen 6-19-25
  9. A Lander 8-15-23
  10. C McDonald 9-6-15
  11. M Kytnar 4-11-15
  12. L Reddox 7-7-14
  13. R O’Marra 9-4-13
  14. B Lerg 6-5-11
  15. V Trukhno 4-5-9
  16. G Paukovich 5-1-6

It looks to me like there are exactly three offensive players of note in the system. I believe we need to take Eberle’s NHLE number with a bit of a grain of salt because he’s a 19-year old player in a league he’s too good for at this age. I also wonder about Omark and his ability to move past the other small forwards in the system and on the major league roster. Still, he’s going to end up scoring 25+ goals in a very good league and that has value.

The rest are:

  • the two-way centers: Nash, who has been well clear of the others in previous times; Vande Velde, the big man who might be something; Hartikainen who may be developing into a useful player but needs to keep his batting average up; Lander, who looked good at the WJ’s and is playing in a tough league; Kytnar, who is well off the pace at this time.
  • the skill kids we need to worry over: Cornet, who is having a fine QMJHL season but isn’t dominating; Rajala, who suffered an injury at the beginning of the season which may or may not have had an impact;
  • the AHL players: Colin McDonald, who seems to be gaining some traction but is likely to have a lifelong battle with the Mendoza line; Reddox, who is not having a very good season but remains a player of interest; O’Marra, who keeps getting good reviews from the organization and an F from math; Lerg, who doesn’t dress for some Falcons games–always a bad sign for an organization prospect; Trukhno, who I would bet a 2-4 scampers back to mother Russia as soon as they open the border this spring; Paukovich, who relies less on offense than pretty much anyone else on the list.

How many players can we count on to develop as NHL players? Well, in my November look at the situation the breakdown (historic top 20′s) looked like this:

  • 6 players (G, D, F) will become “established” NHL players. These would be regulars over a period of several years. Say 5 seasons. If we take two slots for G & D (let’s pick Peckham and Motin) that would mean 4 of the players on the list above end up having careers. I’ll pick Eberle, MPS, Omark and Nash since they’re the top 4 on the list above.
  • 12 from the list above will fail to become NHL players, and of those 12 players only half of them will get a cup of coffee. Since McDonald, Reddox and O’Marra have already played in the show that means only 3 of the rest (let’s pick Cornet, Vande Velde and Rajala) will even appear in an NHL game.
  • The others on the list (represented by Hartikainen, Lander, Kytnar, Lerg, Trukhno, Paukovich) won’t even appear in the show.
  • That’s IF the ratio (4F, 2D) is properly represented in the original estimate.

One final thing: Desjardins DOES have predictive power and we shouldn’t be impressed with the current Falcons. I think the best way to show you is to list last season’s Falcons NHLE’s (08-09), with current NHL players in bold:

  1. Potulny 18-12-30
  2. Jacques 5-20-25
  3. Reddox 14-11-25
  4. Brule 13-11-24
  5. Stone 7-17-24
  6. Schremp 3-20-23
  7. Trukhno 5-13-18
  8. Lerg 8-8-16
  9. Spurgeon 3-8-11
  10. McDonald 4-6-10
  11. Goulet 2-7-9
  12. Paukovich 4-4-8
  13. O’Marra 1-5-6
  14. Sestito 3-1-4

5 of last season’s Falcons forwards are in the NHL at this time. The current Springfield roster doesn’t have the same quality or quantity up front.

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