The young man in the white jersey wearing #9 is Tyler Seguin. Buddy’s got game and some size, plus he appears to have a nice range of skills. Seguin is one of the top ranked players for this season’s NHL Entry Draft. Redline Report likes all of Seguin, Hall and Cam Fowler and said as much in the fall.
Kyle Woodlief: “Seguin is going to be a top forward someday with his outstanding two way game. Hall is a high end skills guy who can score and bring a lot of speed. Fowler can do everything plus run your powerplay and they represent as strong a top end as any in recent memory.”
The quotes above (and much more) are here. I like to run the ISS Top 20 (and ties) through Gabriel Desjardins’ NHL equivalencies; it usually gives us good to great results and those who’ve followed my pre-draft posts know it is true. The reason I use only the top end of the draft is because it culls the “Ron Chipperfield” types: kids who have big junior seasons but a fatal flaw that scouts have identified. So, the list below isn’t a top 10 from each of the Canadian Junior leagues, it’s a list of the highly regarded kids for this draft and how they look when run through Gabriel’s machine. These are all per 82gp and assume similar EV and PP time.
- Taylor Hall (OHL) 18-25-43
- Vladimir Tarasenko (KHL) 23-19-42
- Tyler Seguin (OHL) 18-24-42
- Mikael Granlund (SML) 7-35-42
- Jeff Skinner (OHL) 20-12-32
- Alexander Burmistrov (OHL) 11-17-28
- Brett Connolly (WHL) 14-13-27
- Joey Hishon (OHL) 9-18-27
- Nino Niederreiter (WHL) 16-10-26
- Emerson Etem (WHL) 15-10-25
- Kirill Kabanov (QMJHL) 10-15-25
- Ryan Johansen (WHL) 8-17-25
- Austin Watson (OHL) 6-14-20
- John McFarland (OHL) 8-11-19
- Riley Sheahan (NCAA) 7-12-19
- Nick Bjugstad (USHS) 8-5-13
- Evgeny Kuznetsov (KHL) 0-6-6
Interesting list at the top. Hall and Seguin are very close in terms of total points, which brings the words of Kyle Woodlief into view. When comparing the two, Woodlief said Seguin is a “smarter, better player. He’s got the two-way game and is a tremendous overall skill who thinks the game as well as he plays it” and that sounds like the type of cerebral player the Oilers always look for in their draft picks. Plus he’s physical. Also of interest is the Russian Tarasenko and the Finn Granlund.
- Cam Fowler (OHL) 2-26-28
- Erik Gudbranson (OHL) 2-15-17
- Brandon Gormley (QMJHL) 3-13-16
- Mark Pysyk (WHL) 5-10-15
- Alex Petrovic (WHL) 4-8-12
- Derek Forbort (USHL) 2-6-8
Fowler is well clear of the rest of the group, in fact he’s in the same offensive territory as Victor Hedman was one year ago. The others are not going to be famous for their offense but we need to keep in mind there’s a reason ISS has them in the first round.
I’ll update again at season’s end, but based purely on math it looks like a dead heat between Hall and Seguin with the more complete player probably getting the nod. Fowler would appear to be a ridiculous consolation prize for the team drrafting third overall.
- Tyler Seguin
- Taylor Hall
- Cam Fowler
- Mikael Granlund
- Vladimir Tarasenko*
*Only because he’s Russian and the worry over signability, plus size will be an issue for him and the Finn.