I posted this late a couple of nights ago and then the GDT went up about 10 hours later, so wanted to post it again just in case you missed it. The European Desjardins numbers will be posted tonight, some real surprises there.
Oilers sent Jordan Eberle to Springfield and have implied he’s unlikely to be recalled. As you read over this post and find out the reasonable expectations for Eberle in 10-11 as an Oiler, an interesting question to ponder is “aside from Hemsky, who will be clearly better on RW next season Jordan Eberle?”
I’ve been tracking the numbers for a few seasons now so we have a number of stats-lines to compare. For those who don’t know how the equivalency works, it grabs the junior stats–lets the air out of the tires based on previous junior players and their stats in a CHL-to-NHL jump–and then puts them in 82gp form.
The junior-to-NHL projections are most accurate for 17-year old juniors but it is an extremely valuable “line in the sand” for all teenagers (age in brackets).
- Sam Gagner 16-39-55 (17)
- Slava Trukhno 10-29-39 (19)
- Ryan O’Marra 14-13-27 (19)
- Fredrik Pettersson 10-14-24 (19)
- Sebastien Bisaillon 4-14-18 (19)
- Theo Peckham 5-11-16 (18)
- Alex Plante 3-13-16 (17)
Gagner would come directly to the majors and post 79gp, 13-36-49 which is an excellent comp for the predicted Desjardins. Those two seasons could certainly have come from the same player. None of the other kids from the CHL 06-07 season have given us an entire season to compare to this point.
- Jordan Eberle 15-11-26 (17)
- Philippe Cornet 9-9-18 (17)
- Milan Kytnar 3-5-8 (18)
- Jordan Bendfeld 2-7-9 (19)
- Alex Plante 1-1-2 (18)
This season shows Gagner was in fact something else in junior. Eberle had a solid year but was miles from Gagner as a 17-year old. Cornet’s number comes from the Q, the one junior league that Gabriel penalizes more than the other two. I think he might want to have another look based on the most recent seasons.
- Jordan Eberle 14-16-30 (18)
- Philippe Cornet 11-17-28 (18)
- Milan Kytnar 10-14-24 (19)
- Alex Plante 3-13-16 (19)
- Cameron Abney 2-2-4 (17)
Eberle ran in place despite the WJC fame. The Pats were a poor club and we can factor it in but this was not a dominant season. Cornet on the other hand improved a lot and Plante was healthy again.
- Jordan Eberle 22-24-46 (19)
- Philippe Cornet 10-17-27 (19)
- Toni Rajala 11-15-26 (18)
- Milan Kytnar 8-14-22 (20)
- Cameron Abney 2-3-5 (18)
Eberle had a big season at 19. The question becomes what does this tell us? More on that in a moment. Cornet had exactly the same season as 08-09 and Kytnar ran in place too (I’m not certain Desjardins NHLE’s are meant for 20-year old junior players but decided to list him anyway). If Abney is a player, he’s waiting until the last possible moment to show it.
The two most impressive CHL drafts of this decade for the Oilers (Gagner & Hemsky) were already in the NHL by age 19. Let’s compare Eberle’s season to other 19-year old kids from the Oilers draft past, with the understanding that comparing across seasons and leagues is a “just for fun” exercise.
- Rob Schremp 25-38-63
- Jordan Eberle 22-24-46
- Matt Lombardi 20-25-45
- Slava Trukhno 10-29-39
- Marc Pouliot 15-22-37
- Jarret Stoll 17-18-35
This is where time-on-ice comes into play, but we don’t have those numbers. Gagner & Hemsky were in the NHL at 19 (Gagner’s second season) and Eberle shows well among the group of kids who played junior at that age. There’s some good talent on this list, hopefully Eberle’s career rolls out similar to those of Lombardi and Stoll.
Finally, Desjardins has his say with regard to the #1 pick this summer.
- Taylor Hall 17-29-46
- Tyler Seguin 19-22-41
And in case you don’t think this puppy works, here’s what the NHLE predicted for the kids who jumped to the show over the last few seasons.
- Patrick Kane: 26-36-62 (ACTUAL: 82gp, 21-51-72)
- Sam Gagner: 16-39-55 (ACTUAL: 79gp, 13-36-49)
- David Perron 13-14-27 (ACTUAL: 62gp, 13-14-27)
- Steven Stamkos 23-19-42 (ACTUAL: 79gp, 23-23-46)
- Drew Doughty 6-23-29 (ACTUAL: 81gp, 6-21-27)
- Mikael Boedker 12-17-29 (ACTUAL: 78gp, 11-17-28)
- Josh Bailey 11-24-35 (ACTUAL: 68gp, 7-18-25)*
- John Tavares 25-21-46 (ACTUAL: 69gp, 18-18-36)
- Matt Duchene 13-21-34 (ACTUAL: 68gp, 23-24-47)*
- Evander Kane 19-20-39 (ACTUAL: 62gp, 14-11-25)*
- Ryan O’Reilly 6-18-24 (ACTUAL: 67gp, 7-15-22)
I’ve placed an asterisk against the comps that are well off, although it is reasonable that those seasons could have come from the same player. Still 8 of the 11 predictions above are solid, giving us some degree of confidence with regard to Hall and Seguin’s numbers. I don’t think the Oilers can go wrong with either player.