Andrew Cogliano: (I Can’t Get No) Satisfaction

Andrew Cogliano is an important player for the Edmonton Oilers management group. If they’re serious about building a winner and developing their own, the club must be able to make something from the canvas of skills this player brings or send him away for value before everyone suspects his guile and hockey sense to the point where his value is minimal.

  • Boxcars: 82gp, 10-18-28
  • Shots: 139
  • Plus Minus: -5
  • Corsi (Rel): 1.5 (6th among F’s)
  • GF/GA ON: 41-46
  • 5×5/60: 1.39 (7th among F’s)
  • 5×4/60: 2.55 (10th among F’s)
  • Quality of Competition: 7th toughest among F’s
  • Quality of Teammates: 4th best among F’s
  • FO %: 43% in 379 FO’s
  • Offensive Zone Start FO %: 49.1 (3rd easiest among F’s)
  • Cap Hit: $1,133,333 (RFA)
  1. What do these numbers tell us? Cogliano played in relatively calm waters for a player his age and experience. He did have a denver boot to drag around all year but he wasn’t alone in that area among the Oilers F’s (the club gave new meaning to “left wing lock” after Penner on the depth chart and it impacted every line). His 5×5/60 performance was down year-over-year but the entire roster experienced a dip so I think it is important to keep it in context. Cogliano’s impressive shooting percentage from his first two seasons fell to earth, predictably. His season offensively is not as bad as it has been portrayed in some circles, but after three seasons you’d like to see more.
  2. How Could these numbers be better? Cogliano is a busy player but (in both offensive and defensive zones) often accomplishes very little. He’s a loose cannon as opposed to being a player who finds areas to be useful. It’s actually incredible how very often Andrew Cogliano is out of position when the heart of a play actually happens. A late-season flourish saved his offensive numbers somewhat, but the kid spent much of the year in a fog. I think he might have missed MacT’s tendency to find a role for a player and stick him there (the kid line) but don’t want to turn this into another MacTavish post.
  3. Is he going to be a complete player? You’d think so, but the evidence so far indicates Cogliano is going to be one of those people who gets one year’s experience many times over.
  4. His health is a positive. Almost alone among the small F’s, Cogliano can certainly play healthy (his nickname should be “82″) but he’s in danger of being traded with so many small forwards in similar roles on this roster and the GM’s desire to add size and grit.
  5. Is size that important? The Oilers need young guys who can make a differenece. At this point he is neither. I’m not trying to pick on him, hell he’s the guy I spent last summer defending re: the Heatley deal. But last summer I talked about not trading a guy before you knew who he was, and this season went a long way to giving us the complete resume.
  6. What about a new kid line? Seguin-Cogliano-Nilsson? I’m not sure that benefits the Oilers or Seguin, since the club has better options for linemates (should they choose Seguin). Cogliano arrived in the NHL at age 20 and is basically playing the same role now as he did opening night. I’m not sure that is a player you use to make the Seguin transition go smoothly.
  7. Are they going to trade him? My guess is yes, and that on another team (with fewer players who duplicated his skill set) Cogliano will have a solid career. I’m cheering for him.
  8. How important is he to the organization? Not very. Among the Oiler forwards, I’d rate Penner, Hemsky, Gagner, Horcoff, Brule and Seguin/Hall ahead of him in terms of “keepers” and they could trade Cogs and sign Comrie and be farther ahead in terms of 10-11′s season. He has trade value and at this point that’s probably the route to go.
By The Numbers
  • 07-08 5×5 per 60m: 2.28
  • 08-09 5×5 per 60m: 1.69
  • 09-10 5×5 per 60m: 1.39
By The Numbers
  • 07-08 5×4 per 60m: 2.52
  • 08-09 5×4 per 60m: 3.39
  • 09-10 5×4 per 60m: 2.55

Predictions Past 2009-10: 82gp, 22-25-47 (.573)
Performance in  2009-10: 82gp, 10-18-28 (.341)

Projected Role in 2010-11: Top 9F for Toronto or Ottawa

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