Devan Dubnyk: Get Off of My Cloud

Devan Dubnyk is a big goalie. Huge. 6.06, 194 according to the Oilers website. He’s also confident; DD told anyone who would listen in the fall of 2009 he felt ready for the NHL and was coming to camp to win a job. He was basically telling JDD to move it on over, and his play late in the season may have secured his future with the copper and blue.

  • Boxcars: 19gp, 3.57
  • SP: .889
  • WLT: 4-10-2
  • SP behind starter: .020
  • Cap hit (capgeek): $700,000 (rfa)
  1. What do these numbers tell us? His boxcars are poor, the worst of the rookie goaltenders who played 1,000 or more minutes this season. His overall EV SP (.902) is close to JDD’s (.905) and his late-season performance was very good. In his final 10 games Dubnyk’s SP was .912 overall.
  2. How could these numbers be better? He needed to perform at the level of his final 10 games, but we didn’t get to see it. There’s no real conclusion we can draw from these numbers, except to say we all “saw him good” at the end of the season and he appears to be a more substantial goalie than JDD.
  3. What about a trade? Steve Tambellini has stated that the club doesn’t want to go through another season of 3 goalies, so something will need to be done. I’m not sure how many Oiler fans prefer DD over JDD, but Dubnyk made believers out of a lot of people down the stretch.
  4. Could he start in front of Khabibulin? I don’t think it’ll happen this year.
  5. How important is he to the organization? He might be very important. The Oilers have not developed a quality goaltender from draft day through NHL career since Moog and Fuhr.
  6. What about Asiaoil? Among regular posters at Lowetide, Asiaoil has earned the reputation of being a solid on the goalies. In a thread below, AO posted his opinion:
  • Dubnyk is 2 years younger than JDD and is significantly further along in terms of development than JDD was at the same age.
  • After a rough initial period of getting used to the NHL game after his first call up (common for young goalies) he outplayed the more experienced JDD down the stretch.
  • SPR was decent with Dubnyk who they relied on a lot and was absolutely awful without him. A
  • Athletic goalies with bad technique look like JDD – occasionally spectacular but having a tendency to regularly let in a soft goal. Making the big save is not however what keeps you employed in the NHL – it’s eliminating the softies which cost wins. Although he is not as athletic – Dubnyk’s technique is way better than JDDs who still has frighteningly big holes in his game. NHL goaltending is about consistency and that is something that JDD has never shown anywhere in his pro resume.
  • It’s no contest – you keep DD and give him 30 starts next years with a vet to continue his development. The latter part of the season showed that DD has potential – whether that potential is realized is another issue – but we already know JDD’s upside is backup NHL goalie and should not waste any more development time (and wins) on that.

Predictions Past 2009-10: 7gp, 3.29 .899
Performance in  2009-10: 19gp, 3.57 .889

Projected Role in 2009-10: NHL backup goalie

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