Iacta alea est

This is Colton Teubert. He is (for now) the face of the return for Dustin Penner. It is probably an unfair position for him to be in because he didn’t have anything to do with the events today.

I have read some things about Teubert over the last couple of years and do know that he was a player of interest for Edmonton. I also know that his career path has been bumpy.

Let’s see what we can find. First stop: LA Kings Insider, the best source I’ve found for LAK news. Rich Hammond had an interview with GM Dean Lombardi up not long after the deadline and here’s what he said:

  • “When I was down in Manchester, he has come a long way. I would say that he started off a little slowly, coming out of his draft year, but he arguably was one of our most improved players down there. I think, probably, the one reason I was able to do this is because we have Matt Greene. What I saw in Manchester was very much, in a lot of ways, a young Matt Greene. So I think Edmonton has got a good player here. He certainly has an m.o. that’s attractive. I think he’s still got some development to do, but there was no question that, with what I saw in Manchester, that he’s on the right track. Like I said, if I didn’t have Matt Greene on this team — and hopefully Greener is going to be here a while — this is something that I would have looked a little more hesitantly at.”

I mentioned the other day that it was surprising to hear the gap between Hemsky and Penner in terms of value. Bob McKenzie and others seemed very clear in their comments: Hemsky had higher value. Because of that, I posted this:

  • I’ve been somewhat surprised by the gap between the value we as Oilers fans place on DP and the type of return being discussed for him. A team shopping for one or the other (Hemsky or Penner) is more likely to get a bargain by asking for #27.

I think that’s how it turned out.

Over at ON, I did a trade primer (The Gods Must be Crazy) and posted the following about Penner:

  • If the Oilers are convinced Penner won’t sign for a good number, this might be the time to deal him. Penner is having a good season, he’s healthy and it isn’t beyond reasonable for another team to believe he can help them go deep this spring. Return: A very good young player in his entry level contract or an outstanding prospect, plus a pick.

I think the Oilers covered that return.

I’d be happier if we were discussing Derek Forbort or Viatcheslav Voynov. We’re not. The hardest thing for math to do re:NHL hockey is to quantify the value of a stay at home defenseman that can make a difference. I don’t know that this young man can help the Oilers, but I don’t know that he can’t either. I believe Stu MacGregor is a pretty smart guy and the Oilers clearly had a chance to look at Teubert over a long period of time.

At some level, I have faith in the organization to get it right. I know that’s a lonely place to be, but that’s how I see it.

The first round pick from Los Angeles should come in around 20-25. Here’s a quick trip through the top 30 from ISS with a few notes. Possible Oilers are in italics:

  1. C Ryan Nugent Hopkins (Crazy skill)
  2. D Adam Larsson (wide range of skills)
  3. L Gabriel Landeskog (terrific prospect with range of skills)
  4. C Sean Couturier (big center available)
  5. D Ryan Murphy (ridiculous offensive talent)
  6. R Tyler Biggs (latest American PF)
  7. C Ryan Strome (impressive offensive player, very creative)
  8. D Duncan Siemens (rugged, mobile defender)
  9. D Dougie Hamilton (6.04, can skate and is tough)
  10. F Niclas Jensen (plus size and speed, good shot)
  11. L Brandon Saad (PF falling a little lately)
  12. R Joel Armia (Quick hands, terrific skill)
  13. C Jonathan Huberdeau (trending up, outstanding talent)
  14. L Alexander Khochlachev (impressive offense)
  15. D David Musil (Mobile defensive defenseman)
  16. C Rocco Grimaldi (undersized skill player)
  17. C Daniel Catenacci (dynamic player, small)
  18. D Myles Bell (savvy offensive defenseman)
  19. R Dmitri Jaskin (Czech power forward)
  20. C Mark McNeill (big F w/wide range of skills)
  21. L Ty Rattie (one of the best offensive players in the draft)
  22. F Colin Jacobs (Big skill forward)
  23. D Scott Mayfield (raw D w/size and toughness)
  24. C Viktor Rask (downward spiral)
  25. D Jamie Oleksiak (6.07 condor)
  26. L Sven Bartschi (top end scoring prospect)
  27. C Mika Zibanejad (big, skilled C)
  28. L Matt Puempel (natural scorer)
  29. R Nick Shore (skilled with some size)
  30. R Tomas Jurco (one dimensional scorer)

I think the trade will look a little better to people as Colton Teubert, Mark McNeill and a conditional 3rd rd pick.

If you’ve read this far you are entitled to my opinion. I do not feel a complete rebuild was required and would have preferred they keep Penner or deal him for more immediate help. The Oilers under owner Daryl Katz–and make no mistake this drawn out process is his vision–have decided that Edmonton fans will not see a contending team in Rexall Place. You can make up your own mind as to the reasons, but my belief is that the owner and hockey men are convinced this is the proper journey to winning the 6th Stanley.

With that as a caveat, I’m satisfied with the return. Understanding that the organization has decided to rebuild with Taylor Hall as the “franchise” then the organization must acquire both picks and prospects in that general age group. When Hall explodes as a player, the team can cash picks and prospects in an effort to add depth to the batting order, but it isn’t going to happen this or next season.

I remain convinced the team could have added some elements in the summer and contended for a playoff spot. The management group went another way, and acquired a bet in Teubert that may or may not come through. Having said that, this is a player Stu MacGregor is familiar with and I find it hard to believe the report was negative on his draft day or on this one.

Teubert can be added to the list that includes Peckham, Petry, Chorney, Plante at the pro level and Marincin, Blain, Davidson and others in junior.

This is a build around Taylor Hall. Are you up for a rebuild?

Dustin Penner’s birth certificate disqualified him from being a part of the future. Next stop: dealing Ales Hemsky and securing a new arena. After that, a contender.

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