Math Gone Wild

I always look forward to the end of the CHL season. It freezes all the counting numbers and allows us to marry the scouting reports (the best is McKenzie’s list) to the math of the game (Gabriel Desjardins is the king of the hill).

It’s the first glance at the top of the draft with their scoring stats placed on a level (or almost level) playing field. We don’t have time on ice (not even the teams have TOI totals, incredibly) and we’re lacking all kinds of vital data but it’s a glimpse no matter how imperfect.

Here are the CHL NHLE’s for Bob McKenzie’s first rounders from his February list:

Forwards
  1. Ryan Strome 12-28-40 (BM #6)
  2. Sean Couturier 14-24-38 (BM#4)
  3. Ryan Nugent Hopkins 11-27-38 (BM #2)
  4. Jonathan Huberdeau 15-21-36 (BM# 9)
  5. Sven Bartschi 13-19-32 (BM #14)
  6. Gabriel Landeskog 17-14-31 (BM #3)
  7. Matt Puempel 15-16-31 (BM #18)
  8. Ty Rattie 10-19-29 (BM #17)
  9. Mark McNeill 11-17-28 (BM #22)
  10. Mark Scheifele 8-20-28 (BM #21)
  11. Boone Jenner 10-16-26 (BM #24)
  12. Daneil Catenacci 10-16-26 (BM #30)
  13. Brandon Saad 11-12-23 (BM #8)
  14. Nicklas Jensen 11-12-23 (BM #26)
  15. Richard Rakell 10-12-22 (BM #20) 
  16. Lucas Lessio 10-10-20 (BM #29)
Strome at the top is impressive and RNH had a strong close to his season. Couturier’s flaws are not in the math, so we have to assume it’s foot speed or failure to launch when the going gets rough. Landeskog remains an intertesting player.
Defensemen
  1. Ryan Murphy 10-21-31 (BM #7)
  2. Dougie Hamilton 4-17-21 (BM #5)
  3. Nathan Beaulieu 4-12-16 (BM #13)
  4. Duncan Siemens 2-13-15 (BM #11)
  5. David Musil 2-8-19 (BM #27)
Murphy is crazy good by the slide rule, and the rumble on Hamilton is growing as we get closer to the draft. The two WHL kids have abilities defensively that impact their ranking miles more than their offense.
The system works. It just does. Here are some names from past drafts with their NHLE and their actual numbers the following season:
  1. Patrick Kane: 26-36-62 (ACTUAL: 82gp, 21-51-72)
  2. Sam Gagner: 16-39-55 (ACTUAL: 79gp, 13-36-49)
  3. David Perron 13-14-27 (ACTUAL: 62gp, 13-14-27)
  4. Steven Stamkos 23-19-42 (ACTUAL: 79gp, 23-23-46)
  5. Drew Doughty 6-23-29 (ACTUAL: 81gp, 6-21-27)
  6. Mikael Boedker 12-17-29 (ACTUAL: 78gp, 11-17-28)
  7. Josh Bailey 11-24-35 (ACTUAL: 68gp, 7-18-25)
  8. John Tavares 25-21-46 (ACTUAL: 69gp, 18-18-36)
  9. Matt Duchene 13-21-34 (ACTUAL: 81gp, 24-31-55)
  10. Evander Kane 19-20-39 (ACTUAL: 66gp, 14-12-26)
  11. Ryan O’Reilly 6-18-24 (ACTUAL: 81gp, 8-18-26)
  12. Taylor Hall 17-29-46 (ACTUAL: 65gp, 22-20-42)

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