Shawn Horcoff 10-11: (Stuck Inside of Mobile with the) Memphis Blues Again

Shawn Horcoff has seen some things in his time with the Oilers. From the early days of the MacT coaching regime through the trading of Guerin, Weight and Niinimaa and the magical year of 2006, things must have seemed pretty bright.

From summer 2006 through this very moment, Shawn Horcoff has been pushing a boulder up a big freaking hill. Now, he’s been rewarded for it (Horcoff cashed in on free agency at exactly the right time, but I hold no grudges) but there’s been a price to pay.

Spend a generation in the second division and pretty soon losing games is like breathing: part of every day living.

Shawn Horcoff 10-11

  • 5×5 points per 60: 1.47 (6th among regular forwards)
  • 5×4 points per 60: 4.99 (1st among regular forwards)
  • Qual Comp: toughest among regular forwards
  • Qual Team: best available teammates among regular forwards
  • Corsi Rel: 7.0 (4th best among regular forwards)
  • Zone Start: 50.6% (7th easiest among regular forwards)
  • Zone Finish: 46.6% (13th best among regular forwards)
  • Shots on goal/percentage: 78/11.5% (5th among F’s but DNQ)
  • Boxcars: 47gp, 9-18-27
  • Plus Minus: -1 on a team that was -52
  1. What do these numbers tell us? Horcoff had a strong year before the injury. Although his zone finish was poor and he was outside the actual scorers at 5×5/60 (despite playing with Hall and Eberle (31.77 EV) and Hemsky and Penner (18.44 EV) a lot of the time) he did well in most of the advanced stats. Solid Corsi despite tough opposition, did a nice job as mentor to the kids and sports a wonderful end of season plus minus. 
  2. How could these numbers be better? He’s barely inside the top 6F at 5×5/60 and trails the really skilled guys by a distinct margin. Playing with the linemates above one would hope for a stronger number. Also, the zone start isn’t fab, but then again he was playing with two rookies much of the time.
  3. That was a horrible contract. Horcoff went to market and received fair market value. That’s what the market dictated and the Oilers paid him. I’ve never had a problem with the contract and believe Horcoff has worked hard and performed well (when healthy) during this time.
  4. How’s that injury? All we really know is that he should be fine for next season. Horcoff was supposed to return after 8 weeks but it never happened and I haven’t seen his name bandied about for the WC’s.
  5. His faceoff percentage is in the toilet. Horcoff’s FO total was 48.3 this season and 46.4 the year before after several seasons in the .50′s. I think his number will wind back as soon as these wingers gain some experience and learn how to cheat in the NHL.
  6. He’s NOT A NUMBER ONE CENTER! I’ve never really understood the number 1-4 idea in regard to slotting these guys. There are no Mark Messier’s here, no Beliveau’s. However, Horcoff is a savvy veteran, the captain, has a long history of doing his best to fill any role asked even if his skill set didn’t fit. To borrow a question from Steve Tambellini “is he an ideal offensive center? no he is not” but he’s miles better than the rest of the group in most of the center disciplines.
  7. He’s piling up the injuries. Horcoff is no longer in his 20′s (32 now) and the injuries are piling up. It’s a concern, and one more reason the Oilers badly need to improve the number and quality of 2-way center’s on the roster.
  8. Renney went to Cogliano more this year. When Horcoff was injured, all centermen saw their minutes increase. For the season, at EV’s: Gagner 14:25; Horcoff 14:24; Cogliano 13:36. Horcoff did play much less on the PK this past season.
  9. How much should they count on him? If Sam Pollock took over this team, I guarantee the Oilers would have much better depth at center by September 1. He’d bring in a checker for the 3line, move one of Cogs or Gagner to the wing and add an established 2-way C on top of the checker.
  10. How much WILL they count on him? The Oilers management is having a hard time identifying the Rem Murray’s and the Todd Marchant’s (on the pro scouting side) so we should probably expect more of the same.

By The Numbers

•06-07 5×5 per 60m: 1.52
•07-08 5×5 per 60m: 2.59
•08-09 5×5 per 60m: 1.59
•09-10 5×5 per 60m: 1.37
•10-11 5×5 per 60m: 1.47

By the Numbers

•06-07 5×4 per 60m: 4.87
•07-08 5×4 per 60m: 4.00
•08-09 5×4 per 60m: 3.68
•09-10 5×4 per 60m: 2.80
•10-11 5×4 per 60m: 4.99

Prediction for 2010-11: 68gp, 13-29-42 (.618)
Actual 2010: 47gp, 9-18-27 (.574)
Played the toughs with rookies

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