Colin Fraser 10-11: Most Likely You Go Your Way (and I’ll Go Mine)

Colin Fraser is below the Mendoza line. When a player holds down a forward position there is at least some offensive expectation. Fall below it, and your time on ice will suffer. For Fraser, that surely happened along with a HS right in the middle of an injury-plagued season for a dreadful 30th place team.

How little did he deliver? He ranked last among qualifying Oiler forwards with a 0.48 5×5/60. JF Jacques was 2nd to last at 0.85/60.

That’s not the worst of it. According to behind the, there were 368 NHL forwards who played 40 or more games this past season. Fraser’s 5×5/60 number ranks in a tie for 363rd overall with George Parros. It’s not good.

Colin Fraser 10-11
  • 5×5 points per 60: 0.48 (last among regular forwards)
  • 5×4 points per 60: nil
  • Qual Comp: 2nd easiest faced among regular forwards
  • Qual Team: 3rd best available teammates among regular forwards
  • Corsi Rel: -9.6 (11th best among regular forwards)
  • Zone Start: 47.0% (toughest among regular forwards)
  • Zone Finish: 50.3% (9th best among regular forwards)
  • Shots on goal/percentage: 57/5.3% (16th best among F’s but DNQ)
  • Boxcars: 67gp, 3-2-5
  • Plus Minus: -2 on a team that was -52
  1. What do these numbers tell us? Fraser didn’t deliver much offense but there wasn’t much give either. However, his relCorsi number tells us the ice was indeed slanted and this was against the 2nd easiest opposition available. He did have an extremely tough zone start and has a nice zone finish number based on where he started. So it isn’t all bad, but the needle didn’t move a lot.
  2. How could these numbers be better? Well, he could impact the game more offensively. If the Qualcomp number is correct then the Oilers gave up a tremendous amount of the soft parade to a guy who couldn’t hit above the Mendoza line.
  3. Anything else? He had more PIMs than one would think and he didn’t win faceoffs much. I’m tempted to suggest that Fraser would do much better with linemates who had NHL experience but you could say that about anyone.
  4. Who were his linemates? He played most often with Jacques-Stortini (15.51%) and Jones-Stortini (14%). That’s not exactly the ’27 Yankees.
  5. And he was -2! He certainly did play calm EV minutes. Of course, he played 7.5 minutes a night at evens with subpar linemates against putrid opposition so it was also the least watchable hockey available under lights.
  6. What do they do with him now? He’s signed to another year and one would expect that he’ll come to camp and fight for an NHL job. If Anton Lander shows well, or Vande Velde looks like he did in a late season audition then there’s a chance Fraser plays in OKC in 11-12.
  7. You liked him. I liked him in a depth role. In this post I wrote “the depth chart above needs work and there are affordable free agent options available. A veteran center to help Horcoff and Fraser on the PK, a veteran RW to mentor the kids when they’re struggling. I don’t see Fraser and Jones as being those veterans who can fill the FO/PK/mentor role, but if we slide through August without any movement the die will be cast. We’re buying lottery tickets.”
  8. Maybe the Oilers should have signed John Madden instead from that Hawks team? A young John Madden is just what the doctor ordered. I’d rather see the Oilers keep Fraser on the big club and let VV and Lander prove they’re ready in OKC.
  9. What about PK? Cogliano and Fraser were the main centers, with Cogliano showing quite well and Fraser doing fine (if I’m reading this correctly).
  10. So he’ll be in the mix? Yeah. Fraser had a solid 5×5/60 with Chicago in 09-10 playing the soft parade. If the Oilers had enough good players he could do it again. I don’t think he can have any kind of impact offensively with men like Jacques and Stortini, though. The Oilers have other options and one day when they hire a veteran 2-way C Fraser is down the line. Either that or a fast rookie will send him to Oklahoma in October.
Prediction for 2010-11: 75gp, 8-14-22 (.293
Actual 2010: 67gp, 3-2-5 (.075)
Mario Mendoza never hit .075

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