Bruised ifinger

I’d suggest that one of the real strengths of the internet is that people like Tyler Dellow have found a voice. He mentions me or this blog once in awhile, sometimes riffing off something mentioned in the comments section or poking holes in my belief that the Oilers recieved good value for Dustin Penner. One thing I can always count on from Tyler is that–along with being very passionate, clever and possessing a rapier wit–he has always treated me with respect both in public and private conversations while also making a strong argument for his position. I don’t know where he’s heading but expect it’ll be an interesting career.

  • Oh he clipped your wings but good! I would disagree with you but hey if he did it was the softest hit I’ve taken in a long time. Tyler made some excellent points as always and there are a  few things I’d make clear.
  • Like what, you’re an Oiler apologist PR hack? No, happy to own that honor. I would point out that the nickname “Magnificent Bastard” first hit the blog in fall 2008 as a direct result of a fine start by Jordan Eberle. It began as a nickname; it’s important to make the distinction since some may read Tyler’s article and be left with the impression that MacGregor’s nickname is part of an effort (by me) to canonize him.
  • You rat bastard, admit you love MacGregor! I think he’s had a very strong start to his career as a chief scout and one day he might end up being mentioned alongside men like Del Wilson, Barry Fraser and David Conte. However, as Tyler expressed and any fool can see there’s a lot to be written.
  • Final chance, assclown. Are you or are you not a card carrying member of the Stu MacGregor fanclub. Oh sure, suspect I’m the leader of the group. Guilty as charged. I just don’t want to leave the impression this MBS thing was building and reached its zenith with the two #1 overall picks.
  • Okay, make your case. Really? I’ve done this a million times. Okay, since taking over in 2008 as director of scouting, MacGregor’s team has added Jordan Eberle and Teemu Hartikainen (2008), Magnus Paajarvi and Anton Lander (2009) in the first two drafts and there’s a long list of good looking prospects bubbling under from 2010 and 2011. Marincin, Bunz, Klefbom, Gernat, others.
  • Tyler Dellow rightly pointed out that Pitlick and Hamilton are tracking badly. The direct quote is “they’re clearly well off the pace of guys who turn into 0.5 PPG guys or better in the NHL. That leaves making it as a player who doesn’t provide a ton of offence. We’ll see.”  I don’t disagree with a word of what he’s written there. Hamilton, a 48th overall pick, is not tracking as a top 6 forward. Pitlick the same. If either is going to make this team in the next three years, it is extremely likely to be in a 3-4 line role behind Taylor Hall, Jordan Eberle and others. Even with that, it’ll be important to earn more playing time in the second half of the season and next year, delivering when the chance arrives.
  • You’ve never been critial before about either player. About Pitlick, I wrote don’t think you can describe his first half as anything but disappointing” and suggested in the same article that Hamilton is marching in lock step with Pitlick offensively. Neither player has enjoyed a strong start to his pro career, even considering the number of HS and limited minutes.
  • Yeah, but they’ve been crap offensively all down the line. No, Hamilton enjoyed a massive season final year of junior, and  Pitlick popped 22 even strength goals a year ago in Medicine Hat.
  • That’s a shitty total. Admit it! Jordan Eberle had 25 ev goals in Regina at 19 in about the same number of games. The difference is that Eberle smoked the PP. Pitlick didn’t get the PP bump, as the Tigers had Emerson Etem, Linden Vey and others. I’m not suggesting he’s about to replace Eberle, and I do think he might be shy offensively, but judging him on the AHL start is probably jumping to a conclusion.

  • What would be acceptable for these players? I’d say Hartikainen’s 20-year old season would be a good line in the sand. 66, 17-25-42 .636 as a 20-year old one year ago.
  • Can they get there? Through 35 games in the AHL a year ago, Hartikainen was 10-8-18. Hamilton is 35, 4-5-9 and Pitlick is 35, 4-6-10. I’d say both players will need a lot more TOI in the second half of the season and to deliver when they get the chance.
  • You don’t think they’re getting a chance? I think the Oilers are icing a more veteran AHL team this season and have changed the way they’re going about their business. We’ll see how things roll next season, but it’s never a good sign when the guy you selected 31st overall in 2010 can’t make your everyday AHL lineup a year later.
  • You realize a lot of people will read this and think you’re making excuses. Hey, that’s cool. I have asked a couple of times about TOI totals for these two and HS numbers. I asked Todd Nelson and others about ice time, and the response has been “8-10″ early and “10-12″ later, so that strikes me as 4line plus they each have about 10HS. But it’s chicken/egg and should not be used as an excuse. I wanted to mention it because if they have 9 and 10 points in 10 minutes then it’s probably reasonable to suggest both would come a little closer to Hartikainen with more minutes. Doesn’t address why they aren’t getting those minutes, though. That’s what the 2nd half will tell us.

  • So Tyler’s right. Well, yes and no.
  • Aha! What do you disagree with? Right at the end of his article, Tyler says “MacGregor’s early returns, adjusting for draft slot, look average, to slightly above average. Don’t let anyone tell you otherwise.”  I would suggest that it’s somewhat unfair to tar Stu McGregor with that brush while limiting yourself to CHL forwards as the indicator.  This excludes Teemu Hartikainen, all of the defensemen and the goalies too when making a statement like the one quoted here. If Tyler had included “in looking only at CHL forwards, and giving no credit or blame for the Hall and RNH picks, I’ve found…..” there would be no objection from me in this regard.
  • Is that it? No, there’s more. From what I can tell, the heart of the argument surrounds Tyler Pitlick and Curtis Hamilton. I have a tremendous amount of respect for Tyler Dellow, but my opinion is that it’s much too early to make the call on these players. Added to the new approach from the Oilers organization, I think we’re going to have to wait and see on these players. It is extremely early to be burying them, and that does surprise me about Tyler’s article. He’s a very fair observer from my experience reading his stuff over the years. There is no Rob Schremp in this conversation, no youtube sensation with a sense of entitlement. Seems early to be flushing these kids.
  • He’s measuring offense and they aren’t delivering any. I understand that. I also understand that when you say “MacGregor’s early returns, adjusting for draft slot, look average, to slightly above average. Don’t let anyone tell you otherwise” it’s important to report on the entirety of the project or qualify the limitations of your review in the money statement.
  • I was hoping for more anger. I know. I’ve let the internet down. Again.
  • Aren’t you a little mad at Dellow? God no. It was a respectful article and we disagree on a couple of small items. He used this blog and my opinion of MacGregor as a backdrop to make a counter argument. Well written, great points, a couple of graphs, lots to think about. I wish all of my disagreements were as civil and educational. I look forward to seeing how this all turns out in the next couple of seasons.
  • I see you’ve chosen a song to take us out. Yes, it was a favorite of my parents when I was little. Thought people might like it.

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59 Responses to "Bruised ifinger"

  1. DSF says:

    Post could be titled “Pull My Finger” if Tyler is involved but….

    If it’s too early to tell the story of Pitlick and Hamilton, it’s certainly too early to be calling any Bastard Magnificent.

    Eberle was a nice pick but, let’s face it, he fell in the draft.

    Paajarvi may cancel that pick. There are several players picked later who are trending better.

    I still believe Seguin will be a better player than Hall although it was a toss up in my eyes so, IMO, we’re left with Hopkins and any player selected later in the draft for MacGregor to earn accolades.

  2. Gerta Rauss says:

    Well said LT-your post seems like a reasonable response to Mr.Dellows article

    Oilers update today

    -both Barker and Whitney are skating with the red jerseys-Barker may be back this week,Gilbert is still sore
    -no Nuge,apparently has the flu

  3. Lowetide says:

    the flu? God almighty.

  4. Gerta Rauss says:

    And I mis-read the Oilers article..Gilbert was aksed about this week as a return and said he wasn’t sure-no timeline on either of them.

  5. Lowetide says:

    Gerta: Well if they lose 2 in a row they’ll bring them all back.

  6. nathan says:

    Whatever was behind the Abney pick no one imagines he was picked as a point producer. And how much can be read into picking Cornet at 133?

    So if he’s going seriously evaluate results in picking out the non-overall #1 CHL producing forwards he’s got Jordan Eberle and three 2010 picks:

    22 Jordan Eberle !!!!
    31 Tyler Pitlick
    48 Curtis Hamilton
    61 Ryan Martindale

    Not sure if I see any daylight between “some bloggers” and Tyler. It’s early and everyone’s watching the arrows.

  7. DSF says:

    Katz sells off a big chunk of his business for nearly a billion and is going hard in real estate.

    “This transaction unlocks significant value through the sale of two outstanding but non-core assets. We will intensify our focus on our corporately owned Rexall and Rexall/Pharma Plus store network to accelerate the growth of our Rexall brand and the value proposition that it represents to our patients and customers. We will also accelerate the growth of our related real estate interests,” commented Daryl Katz, Chairman of Katz Group.”

    http://news.techfinance.ca/katz-group-to-sell-guardian-i-d-a-and-medicine-shoppe-to-mckesson/

  8. sliderule says:

    If you look at just first two rounds he is not looking too bad.

    2008 Eberle, no 2rd pick
    2009 MPS missed on kulikov,leddy,Johanson 2rd Lander miss on c smith at 98 but so did a boatload
    2010 Hall ,options not misses Seguin and Skinner 2rd Pitlick miss Faulk, Pelly,picked Marincin then Hamilton ,all the other 2rd picks for all teams are in junior,college or club teams

    I would say his later picks other than two Slovaks have me scratching my head but I guess you could say that for most of the later picks for all teams.
    It’s unfortunate but we won’t know how good he is for another couple of years

  9. nathan says:

    “Eberle was a nice pick but, let’s face it, he fell in the draft.”

    Yup. No risk in catching falling objects that others run from.

    But falling has nothing to with the Eberle pick. Central Scouting dropped him from North American #24 mid-season to North American #33 final.

    Eberle was picked at #22 overall before he could fall to the Central Scouting ranking or Bob McKenzie’s scout consensus at #29 overall.

    So much for glib.

  10. DSF says:

    nathan,

    I did say he was a nice pick and may turn out to be a home run.

    Balance that with Paajarvi and things look a little different.

  11. Ducey says:

    Dellow discloses in the comments that 42 of the 67 .5 ppg guys were first rounders.

    To say that Stu should be questioned because Cornet or Martindale or even Pitlick and Hamilton are not on track to average 40 pts per season is questionable in itself.

    The reality is that the vast majority of players taken outside the first round will not play 200 NHL games. The test of Stu’s ability is whether Pitlick and Hamilton et al turn out to be useful NHL players (200 NHL games).

    I’d also point out that Pitlick went from college to WHL to AHL in 3 short years. That is going to involve a lot of adjustments taking him out of the realm of a bunch of guys who would have been playing the same league three years in a row. Hamilton also basically lost a whole year of development due to a broken collar bone.

    As usual Dellow has taken a run at the Oilers and their management. In this case he has tried by setting the goal posts back too far for the CHL forwards and completely ignoring everyone else.

  12. rickithebear says:

    LT: timing is perfect. Was writing a response to the Blum +1st on Hf boards from principe.

    Comment was made about Detroit giving up 1st picks. and that they were beter with lower picks.

    The two first overalls were give me’s but:
    1. Stu macgregor got more value from his bottom 1st picks than most teams get in 5 drafts.
    2008: (1 22) Eberle one of 7 forwards top 20 in Goal, assist and Point Production. A top 10 forward in the league.
    2011: (1 19) Klefbom WJC Allstar @18. 17 of the last 19 start the next year in the NHL. Some want to ignore it. But he is with………..you seen my list.

    Gets quality in the last 4 rounds:
    2008: (5 133) Cornet top 6 in Goal scoring in the AHL. Trends at the top of his peers in Midget, QMJHL, and now the AHL. Next the NHL ?????
    Hartikainen: (6 163) SM-ligga rookie of the year. Finlands leading goal scorer WJC. Future 20G power forward?
    2009:
    Bigos: (4 99) 6’5″ 240Lb stay at home Dman. Royal bank Cup MVP. Current NHLE 22 point Season
    Roy: (5 133) (20) .combined .918 save % in first two ppro seasons in ECHL and AHL.
    2010:
    Blain: (4 91) 6’2″ .9 PPG dman 18 year old season. More on that when we look at Gernat.
    Bunz; (5 121) .920 Save% in WHL and should have been WJC starter
    2011:
    Reider (4 114) 2PPG since Mid November, 2.35PPG and leading scorer at Div2 WJC. +.7GPG in U19 season. Stamkos, Perry, Ryan like. Man.
    Gernat (5 122) 6′ 5″ .9PPG. since 2000 there have been 28 +6’0″ Dmen with a .9PPG rate in the CHL.
    WHL: Gernat, Marincin, Blum, Barker, Gorges, Boumeester, Hamhuis.
    OHL: Ceci, Hamilton, Fowler, Carlson, Gaunce, Bogosian, Del Zotto, Pietrangelo, Doughty, Sanguinetti, Tyutin, Eminger, Klesla.
    QMJHL: Gormely, Blain, Kulikov, Vlasic, Gragnani, Paiment, Johnson, Malec.

    Gernat, Marincin, Blain are 3 of 28 Dmen since 5 have been failures so far. Barker, Gaunce, Sabguinetti, Paiment, Malec. the rest are 7-15 year Dmen. These three plus klefbom in the last two years.

    Sick trending.

  13. spoiler says:

    Did I miss something?

  14. mc79hockey says:

    Glad you didn’t take it badly LT. Like I told Staples, I think we’ve known each other long enough to disagree on occasion, even if I tend towards the acerbic. Jones and Matty might have more grounds to complain. In any event, call it a tribute to your influence – I think you’re a) widely read and b) a large part of the reason MacGregor has the reputation he has with internet savvy fans. There’s another side to the argument.

    As for the pinheads saying I fuck around with goalposts or what not. There’s more to come. I’ve been writing for six years now; I’d think I’d get a little slack based on not generally fucking around with goalposts. I’ll also note that I said MacGregor’s been average to slightly above average WRT CHL F. Not bad, not Magnificent.

    Sounds like Lowetide might agree.

  15. VOR says:

    I don’t actually have an opinion about Stu. Way too early to tell on many players. Too small a sample size, etc.

    However, in Tyler’s response in the comment section he says he has ignored draft pedigree as a variable in his analysis because if you are scoring at .5 ppg you aren’t in the NHL on draft pedigree. Which seems to me flawed thinking.

    Clearly, draft pedigree had some effect on your opportunities to be in the NHL period and also on your chances of scoring at .5 ppg or better. The higher the draft position the sooner you get to the NHL, the better the line mates you play with, the more mistakes are tolerated and I could go on and on. (Tyler – I could send you some references on the draft pedigree effect if you are interested.)

    Ignoring all else the best players (generally speaking) get drafted earlier in the NHL draft. Thus Stu can’t be judged against all CHL forwards picked in the draft. Only those picked at the same point in the draft.

    I think the entire process is flawed.

    Tyler starts out comparing his pool which has only a handful of 1st OV forwards from the CHL in it against Stu’s 1st OV CHL forward picks so Stu wins. The rest of Stu’s CHL forwards aren’t first rounders and can’t be judged by a data pool in which 1st rounders make up such a large sub-set. So Stu loses. Neither Stu’s wins or loses have anything to do with Stu, they are artifacts of Tyler’s choices.

    Research has also shown that the birth date hypothesis as has some validity so you would have to allow for that which Tyler hasn’t. If the Oilers really have changed their approach to player development in the AHL and it is radically reducing ice time for prospects that can make it hard to tell anything from the numbers.

    Plus, how long do you have to play in the CHL to be a CHL forward. That isn’t where Pitlick was playing when Stu picked him. Shouldn’t he be being compared to players who were in college when picked? Stu had no way of knowing he was going to move to the CHL. This is comparing apples to oranges. Jumping from college to the CHL is a huge change in a number of ways and it happens so rarely it is a bit hard to know what you’d expect. Turning right around and going to the AHL the next year is even more bizarre. I think it would be hard to find any comparable never mind a meaningful data set.

    At technical level, given Tyler picked a standard .5 ppg then there should probably be an ANOVA. That would at least show us that the obeserved outcomes matched the predictions of his hypothesis. There aren’t enough “test conditions” in this analysis plain and simple. Like what happens if we take all the CHL forwards chosen between 1st OV and 20th OV, 21st OV and 40th OV, etc. Tylers’ hypothesis demands that those subsets look like his overall set. Also, how about centers, left wings, right wings as subsets, is the same pattern still evident. How about players who played different positions. How about age whent hey reached the CHL? Without some sort of statistical test of the hypothesis the data is irrelevant.

  16. Thinker says:

    Hamilton, pitlick, and martindale were drafted to be supporting players. Tambo said that at the time. Typically third liners dont score 40 pts. In fact usually less than 5 players per team score over 40. 40 is a solid number. Saying players picked to be 3rd liners are busts because they aren’t lighting the lamps with top prospects is dumb.
    Eberle is the only real gem that has already made the nhl. though lander is still good.
    Gernat,marincin, pitlick, Martindale,bunz,roy,cornet,hartikainen, ect are all trending above there number, and some were picked so low that it should be a success just for them to be considered prospects.
    I have so much more to say but im tire so im going to bed.

  17. Rebilled says:

    iFingered so.

    Here’s the difference between a BC hillbilly and an Alberta redneck.
    ‘That guy cut me off so I fingered him.’ BC
    ‘What did you say?’ AB
    ‘I fingered him.’ BC
    ‘Oh, did you now?’ AB

    As per MBS, Eberle works for me.

  18. Ducey says:

    mc79hockey:

    As for the pinheads saying I fuck around with goalposts or what not.There’s more to come.I’ve been writing for six years now; I’d think I’d get a little slack based on not generally fucking around with goalposts.I’ll also note that I said MacGregor’s been average to slightly above average WRT CHL F.Not bad, not Magnificent.

    Sounds like Lowetide might agree.

    “pinheads” eh? Nice.

    A critic who can’t take rather gentle criticism. I’ll look forward to more of your writing, although I think I already know your conclusion.

  19. peeps says:

    I suspect the required analysis would be too time-consuming, but I wonder what the effect from “bad teams rushing good players” would have on Tyler’s numbers.

    Typically, poor teams draft the best players (e.g., the Kovalchuks, Nashes, and Halls of the world) and in turn, poor teams don’t have the actual NHL players on their rosters to provide the depth needed to justify keeping good new players in the juniors (or AHL). I suspect this could skew the results dramatically… how many 0.5 ppg players does an average draft produce anyways? I’m guessing there are enough bad teams with good draft picks to pluck most of those offensively-capable players and rush them into the NHL before the kids turn 21.

    In contrast, I wonder how the ages would skew when only the players from good teams are tracked (e.g., Detroit, San Jose, or even Vancouver). The answer to that may make us feel a bit more assured of MBS’s current title.

    Then again, maybe I’m just looking for an excuse for hope after 6 years without playoff hockey…

  20. rickithebear says:

    pitlick and Hamilton, Martindale were age errors. From day one. the younger forward innthe draft will yeild better. From Desjardins, pitlick, Hamilton, Martindale were never going to be more than 45-50 point players. Right up there with schremp at pick (1 25). t

    The diffrence is that there was a desire to get size, production, Two way play in that draft. 6’2″+ players.

    From the top of round 2 to end of round 4 there were 17 forwards of this size taken.
    1. Kabanov 6’3″(3 85) Nhle 60PT
    2. Straka 6’2″ (2 55) 55PT
    3. Hamilton 6’3″ (2 48) 50 PT
    4. Martindale 6’3″ (3 61) 45PT
    5. ……………
    10. Pitlick 6’2″ (2 31) 35PT.

    To this day i look at the pitlick pick as a waste. But Hamilton and Martindale were the first two forwards that were 2nd line NHLE with size and two way play.

  21. rickithebear says:

    every time I look at the draft: Macgregor’s picks have a marker:
    if they do not then i can see team agendas in the pick:
    Eberle: best player in the draft
    Motin; one of the best 16 year old D season in SEL.
    Cornet: leading scorer in Quebec Midget. top predraft year in Q.
    hartikainen: Top finnish WJU17 and WJU18 scorer

    MP: one of the best predraft COring years in SEL. Leading U18 scorer and U20 scorer.
    Lander: Captain U18 Top sweden goal scorer.
    Hesketh: new scouts pick
    Abney: team mandated goon pick.
    Bigos: Royal Bank MVP. large size Dman.
    Rajalas: Broke ovechkins u18 scorng record.
    Roy: #2 ranked Goalie.

    Pitlick: Bad pick
    Marincin: established scoring in czech mens play.
    Hamilton & Martindale best point production Forwards for the big two way agenda.
    Blain: best big pre draft scoring Dman.
    Bunz: top u18 Goalie (sv%) in WHL.
    Davidson: late starter????????
    Czerwonka: top bantam draft pick and one of youngest big forwards in WHL.

    Klefbom: thought one of the best D in the draft. Maybe top 3.
    Musil: Close to NHL ready Dman. Family agenda.
    Perhonen & Tuohimaa Finnish Goalie agenda from new scout.
    Ewanyk: another third round agitator.
    Simpson: Family agenda.
    Reider: top german scoring prospect in history. Leading scorer U18 & u20.
    Gernat: indicated as ranked top 35 players. and correct !

    So whenever there is not an team agenda we get :
    Eberle, Cornet, Hartikainen.
    MP, Lander, Bigos, Rajalas, Roy
    Marincin, Blain, Bunz, Davidson, Czerwonka.
    Klefbom, Musil, Rieder, Gernat.

    I am ok with Mcgregors uninfluenced picks.

  22. cabbiesmacker says:

    What % of NHL players score 41 pts per season again?

    Guess we need to eliminate those pesky 3rd and 4th lines leaguewide.

  23. Whiskeyjack says:

    I think people have to understand that Hamilton and Pitlick are very young to be in the AHL. They maybe the 2 youngest players in that league. Most if not all are still playing juniors. Being late 91 birthdays many guys in the draft are only a month or 2 older then they are. Jared Knight who was selected after Pitlick is 2 months older then him. Connor Brickley is 2 months older then Hamilton.

    Not surprising that young players will struggle in a new league.

    But you know Dellow has been marginalized as someone who should be looked at seriously when it comes to understanding prospects and prospect development anyways.

  24. jdubbs says:

    i like to think Pitlick could take a similar path that Ryan Kesler did. came out of Ohio and struggled his first few years as a pro. Van left him in Manitoba for a full year as a 21 year old after he struggled his first year (statistically). after about his 3 or 4th year as a pro became a regular on the Canucks, i know Kesler was ranked and drafted higher but it would be nice to seea similar path to developing a good 2nd or 3rd line center that Pitlick can be.

  25. Should The Oilers Trade Tyler Pitlick or Curtis Hamilton? | Edmonton Journal says:

    [...] followed up yesterday’s post with an update today, responding to some specific criticisms from Lowetide’s Allan Mitchell and the Oilers’ Bob [...]

  26. mc79hockey says:

    i like to think Pitlick could take a similar path that Ryan Kesler did. came out of Ohio and struggled his first few years as a pro. Van left him in Manitoba for a full year as a 21 year old after he struggled his first year (statistically)

    Kesler turned pro immediately on being drafted in 2003. In his age 19 season (he was a 19 year old pick, presumably due to NCAA), he didn’t score much in the AHL. In his age 20 season – when the AHL was AHL+ because it was flooded with guys sent down for the lockout year – he scored 58 points in 78 games. So, uh, more than the 0.75 PPG I suggested as a line for guys coming out of the CHL despite facing a lot more guys who could locate a curveball.

  27. mc79hockey says:

    But you know Dellow has been marginalized as someone who should be looked at seriously when it comes to understanding prospects and prospect development anyways.

    This sentence makes no sense. Seriously.

  28. mc79hockey says:

    Typically, poor teams draft the best players (e.g., the Kovalchuks, Nashes, and Halls of the world) and in turn, poor teams don’t have the actual NHL players on their rosters to provide the depth needed to justify keeping good new players in the juniors (or AHL). I suspect this could skew the results dramatically… how many 0.5 ppg players does an average draft produce anyways? I’m guessing there are enough bad teams with good draft picks to pluck most of those offensively-capable players and rush them into the NHL before the kids turn 21.

    In contrast, I wonder how the ages would skew when only the players from good teams are tracked (e.g., Detroit, San Jose, or even Vancouver). The answer to that may make us feel a bit more assured of MBS’s current title.

    I encourage you to look at the follow-up post on my site. LT and Stauffer basically argued that teh Oilers are developing them slow – it virtually never happens with CHL prospects – anywhere. If the Oilers are burying guys who could otherwise be scoring over 0.75 PPG in teh AHL, they would appear to be the first team to do it of which I’m aware.

  29. mc79hockey says:

    A critic who can’t take rather gentle criticism. I’ll look forward to more of your writing, although I think I already know your conclusion.

    Uh, no. You said that I was playing around with the data to get the results I wanted. You already know my conclusion? Please. You accused me of not trying to take a fair look at things in your first comment.

  30. Whiskeyjack says:

    mc79hockey:
    But you know Dellow has been marginalized as someone who should be looked at seriously when it comes to understanding prospects and prospect development anyways.

    This sentence makes no sense.Seriously.

    Your opinion as someone who understands prospects and prospect development is limited and often outright wrong

    Sorry you are good at things like understanding a salary cap but when it comes to real hockey stuff you are pretty poor

  31. nathan says:

    VOR:
    Tyler starts out comparing his pool which has only a handful of 1st OV forwards from the CHL in it against Stu’s 1st OV CHL forward picks so Stu wins. The rest of Stu’s CHL forwardsaren’t first rounders and can’t be judged by a data pool in which 1st rounders make up such a large sub-set. So Stu loses. Neither Stu’s wins or loses have anything to do with Stu, they are artifacts of Tyler’s choices.

    Tyler, Intentions aside please do deal with VOR’s comments on where the goalposts landed. If 1OV’s can’t fairly be compared to your subset, surely you need a better subset to set the expectations for young 2nd rounders halfway through their AHL start.

  32. mc79hockey says:

    Your opinion as someone who understands prospects and prospect development is limited and often outright wrong

    That’s funny. Can you point to some of my discussion of prospects and prospect development? As far as I can recall, the only prospect I wrote seriously about was Schremp, who I thought was being massively overrated.

  33. Captain Obvious says:

    The responses to Dellow here are embarrassing. It’s like reading the meatheads at Oilersnation. The takeaway from Dellow’s post is that if you aren’t scoring .75 pts/game in the AHL by age 20 you aren’t a real prospect. This is basically a fact and there is little point denying it. In fact, it lowers the previous threshold of scoring 1pt/game in the AHL.

    It is also a fact that Pitlick and Hamilton aren’t anywhere near that threshold. These guys aren’t real prospects. They might turn into marginally useful players but a guy who might turn into a marginally useful player is not a real prospect.

    Now there might be mitigating factors in each of their case. However, they are so far from the scoring threshold that it would take every fudge you can imagine to be optimistic in their cases.

    And don’t bring up the idea that third line players aren’t expected to score. Third line players on good teams absolutely do score.

    Here’s an axiom for you. Players who can’t contribute offense are always net negative players on their team.

  34. Whiskeyjack says:

    Captain Obvious:
    The responses to Dellow here are embarrassing.It’s like reading the meatheads at Oilersnation.The takeaway from Dellow’s post is that if you aren’t scoring .75 pts/game in the AHL by age 20 you aren’t a real prospect.This is basically a fact and there is little point denying it.In fact, it lowers the previous threshold of scoring 1pt/game in the AHL.

    It is also a fact that Pitlick and Hamilton aren’t anywhere near that threshold.These guys aren’t real prospects.They might turn into marginally useful players but a guy who might turn into a marginally useful player is not a real prospect.

    Now their might be mitigating factors in each of their case.However, they are so far from the scoring threshold that it would take every fudge you can imagine to be optimistic in their cases.

    And don’t bring up the idea that third line players aren’t expected to score.Third line players on good teams absolutely do score.

    Here’s an axiom for you.Players who can’t contribute offense are always net negative players on their team.

    Actually a meathead response is saying something is a fact without showing us evidence to conclude that is indeed a fact

    A fact is it is quite common for guys to come into the AHL as 19/20 year olds and not produce as they did in junior come back a 2nd year and start to produce their 2nd AHL season

    Let us just start in with the Vancouver Canucks

    Jannik Hansen 1st year AHL – .47 ppg 2nd year AHL .86 ppg
    Ryan Kesler 1st year AHL .33 ppg 2nd year AHL .74 ppg

    Man those 2 are not real prospects must be bum picks

  35. mc79hockey says:

    Hilarious. Kesler perfectly complies wtih my rule as I pointed out above – he did very well in the AHL at 20 scpromg ,pre than 0.75 PPG. During the lockout year. When the AHL was really, really good.

    Hansen is not currently over .5 PPG in scoring in the NHL for his career. He failed to score 0.75 PPG in the AHL at age 20.

    ILOOK, LOOK, I HAVE ANECDOTES THAT BACK UP EXEACTLY WHAT YOU’VE SAID.

  36. mc79hockey says:

    I’ll come back to VOR’s point – suffice it to say I don’t think I’ve made myself entirely clear because I think that I either answered most of his criticisms or they aren’t valid.

  37. Captain Obvious says:

    Whiskeyjack,

    You are being non-responsive. Age matters much more than time through the league. This is well established finding that holds true in minor league baseball and in the preliminary studies of hockey. Kesler was 20 years old when he put up .74 ppg. When Hansen was 20 he put up .47 ppg and then broke out the following year. Pitlick and Hamilton are miles from those numbers.

    Now I conceded that there could be mitigating factors, most importantly playing time. But even if you include that factor we are beginning from a baseline that is so far from adequate that something remarkable is going to have to happen for them to turn into something worthwhile.

    I’ve been through all the stats wars in baseball threads and there are two lessons from baseball that transfer over to hockey, especially for forwards.

    Track record relative to age is the single most important thing to know about a player. Pitlick’s track record isn’t good. Now this isn’t determinative. It is not impossible for a leap forward to happen. But a reasoned analysis has to begin with the realization that a leap forward is necessary and hence he is not “tracking well.”

  38. Whiskeyjack says:

    Captain Obvious:
    Whiskeyjack,

    You are being non-responsive.Age matters much more than time through the league.This is well established finding that holds true in minor league baseball and in the preliminary studies of hockey.Kesler was 20 years old when he put up .74 ppg.When Hansen was 20 he put up .47 ppg and then broke out the following year.Pitlick and Hamilton are miles from those numbers.

    Now I conceded that there could be mitigating factors, most importantly playing time.But even if you include that factor we are beginning from a baseline that is so far from adequate that something remarkable is going to have to happen for them to turn into something worthwhile.

    I’ve been through all the stats wars in baseball threads and there are two lessons from baseball that transfer over to hockey, especially for forwards.

    Track record relative to age is the single most important thing to know about a player.Pitlick’s track record isn’t good.Now this isn’t determinative.It is not impossible for a leap forward to happen.But a reasoned analysis has to begin with the realization that a leap forward is necessary and hence he is not “tracking well.”

    You do know that Pitlick and Hamilton are 2 of the youngest guys in the AHL right now right? You do know that guys a month or 2 younger then them are in the CHL right now right?

    The fact is I can go down the list of every team in the NHL and find guys that were less then a .5 ppg their first year in the AHL and who improved a great deal the 2nd year and are now full time NHLers. It is called development.

    I will conceded that if next year both these guys are not producing while getting ample ice time then we might have to reconsider how useful they end up.

  39. nathan says:

    But a reasoned analysis has to begin with the realization that a leap forward is necessary and hence he is not “tracking well.

    Way too much analysis dancing on a sample that happens to focus on 2 AHL half seasons. What I said earlier. Before the analysis “some bloggers” were noting that arrows are not so great for the mid-terms. Analysis that projects the average follow-on for 2nd round CHL forwards that age at the half-way mark as AHL rookies seasons would be interesting. That aside in a few months this small sample will at least have full rookie AHL years to look at.

  40. Captain Obvious says:

    Whiskeyjack,

    I don’t know how many times I have to repeat myself. What matters is age, not first time through the league. It has been established over and over again that real prospects score in the AHL at age 20. For instance Nazem Khadri in his 20 year old season (and his first) was almost a point/game player last year in the AHL. That’s what a prospect looks like.

    Brayden Schenn scored 7 points in 7 games as a 19 year old and then 12 points in 7 games as a 20 year old (this year). That’s what a prospect looks like.

    Logan Couture, a so-called slow developing scorer, was well over a point per game in his 20 year old season which also happened to be his first season in the AHL.

    These were the first three guys I looked up. Face it, if you can’t score when you are 20 it is quite unlikely that you will ever be able to score. The fact of the matter is that it is exceedingly rare for young players to make the jump to the NHL. And the vast majority of players that do make it track well from the beginning. If you don’t acknowledge that you will vastly overate all of your prospects.

  41. rickithebear says:

    For me: the question is are they trending to the point total there 18 year season suggests. What does there 20-21 year old year say.
    Cornet: 18 year said 46PT NHLE. currently 36PT NHLE. with a 54% score rate. Would you consider a 20G 16A 3rd line a prospect.
    Hamilton: 18 year 50 Pt NHLE. Currently 20 year old limited playing time. At 21 when he starts to see the minutes. we probably trend to a 40 pt NHLE 17G 23A two way 6’3″ LW. that is a ………Prospect.
    Martindale: well No idea.

    Success rate for a draft. is our #1 a top 4 D or top 6 forward.
    Do we get another player in the next six rounds.
    Complete replacement of team in 12 year cycle.

    Stu: Hall and RNH give me’s.
    Ist round picks.
    1st in the second counts. Eberle, Pitlick, Klefbom, Musil. looks like 3 out of 4

    Next 6 RD:
    2008:Cornet, Hartikainen,
    2009: Lander, Bigos??, Roy,
    2010: Marincin, Hamilton, Blain, Bunz
    2011: Rieder, Gernat.

    13 in 4 years. SMB is on a 7 year replacement cycle. Thank heavens for him.

  42. Captain Obvious says:

    In Pitlick and Hamiton’s favour the rest of his draft year is either in the NHL, in college, or still in junior. Which raises the question, why he isn’t playing in junior this year?

    The young for his age argument is a good one. That is, if you treat them 19 year olds instead of a 20 year olds (since this demarcation is somewhat arbitrary) they still have a chance, I guess. But that’s just one more thing you have to give them the benefit of the doubt on. They are, after all, older than the rest of their draft class.

  43. Whiskeyjack says:

    Kadri was selected 7th overall. Couture 12th overall. Schenn 5th overall

    We are talking about guys selected after the 1st round. Not about guys with top of the draft pedigree

    Face it you are not even giving me good examples to support your argument

    No one from the 2010 2nd round is in the AHL. The guys you could compare them to like Jared Knight or John McFarland are in the CHL

    Fact is we took 3 guys in Pitlick,Hamilton and Martindale that could all be back in Junior this year putting up huge numbers.

    Fact if you go back to the 2009 draft and start looking at 2nd round picks most them are either in europe or College still. The ones that are in the AHL the ones that doing “good” are hovering around .5 ppg game while most of them are “struggling”. The real outstanding player happens to be Brandon Pirri and it just happens to be his second year in the AHL imagine that he is doing so much better his 2nd year.

    Guys the nucks,Rangers and Tampa bay should flush Anton Rodin,Ethan Werek and Richard Panik because they are having a rough go at it.

  44. Captain Obvious says:

    Whiskeyjack,

    Why don’t your words respond to what I say? Jared Knight and John McFarland aren’t prospects either. I wasn’t making a comment on MPS’ performance. I was making a comment on Pitlick and Hamitlon’s prospect status. This shows the relative value of a second round pick (almost nothing). Hence you pointing out that the real prospects I pointed out were all drafted in the first round only confirms what we already know. Good forwards are drafted high in the first round. You can find defensemen and goalies later but forwards that matter are almost always drafted high.

    This leads to another good rules.

    Always draft a forward with your first pick.
    Never draft a goalie in the first or second round.
    Take a defenseman in the first round only with extreme care.
    Don’t take forwards after the first round unless you know something others don’t.
    Never take a forward after the second round.

    If you gave me a generic scouting list and I followed those rules I bet I would beat the field with the success of my picks.

  45. Woodguy says:

    I don’t mind these guys rating out as 3rd liners.

    Mike Grier was a .42ppg guy and if Pitlick or Hamilton turns into him, I’d be fairly happy. (yes I know that Grier was picked in the extinct 9th round, but I’m of the belief that once picked it doesn’t matter from where)

    I do think that given their late birthdays that this is really their 19 year old year in the AHL, not their 20 year old year.

    I’d like to see a year of them in top 6 positions in the AHL with top 6 type linemates before passing much more judgement.

  46. nathan says:

    “I don’t know how many times I have to repeat myself.”

    Instead of repeating yourself do some analysis on the comparable subsets, What conclusions can be drawn about 2nd round CHL to AHL rookie forwards at MID-YEAR at that age? . And how does that compare to the average 2nd round CHL forward at MID-YEAR that age?

    ‘Cuz so far I see little to impact any MBS report card and nothing to quantify the concerns about the arrows that preexisted very limited analysis on a very small sample.

  47. Captain Obvious says:

    If you exclude college players (which you have to because the stats aren’t directly comparable) It is very difficult to find a good NHL forward who was not already in the NHL at age 20 or scoring at a good pace in the AHL at 20. They almost don’t exist. Go luck up any team and find this player.

    It isn’t necessary to do a study (besides the fact that Dellow already did one) to prove the point because there are almost no counter examples. Scanning a couple of good teams the only one I could find was Rich Peverley who was a college player but didn’t score in the AHL until 24 or 25. Dustin Penner is another example of a late bloomer. But he’s also a college player and in any case these guys remain far outside the norm.

    And every time I search for these counterexamples to my point I find more evidence that I’m right. For instance Jarrett Stoll scored 54 points in his first season in the AHL at age 20.

    The only argument going here is that these guys really are 19. That’s the only crutch there is.

  48. Whiskeyjack says:

    Captain Obvious:
    If you exclude college players (which you have to because the stats aren’t directly comparable) It is very difficult to find a good NHL forward who was not already in the NHL at age 20 or scoring at a good pace in the AHL at 20.They almost don’t exist.Go luck up any team and find this player.

    It isn’t necessary to do a study (besides the fact that Dellow already did one) to prove the point because there are almost no counter examples.Scanning a couple of good teams the only one I could find was Rich Peverley who was a college player but didn’t score in the AHL until 24 or 25.Dustin Penner is another example of a late bloomer.But he’s also a college player and in any case these guys remain far outside the norm.

    And every time I search for these counterexamples to my point I find more evidence that I’m right.For instance Jarrett Stoll scored 54 points in his first season in the AHL at age 20.

    The only argument going here is that these guys really are 19.That’s the only crutch there is.

    No what you are doing is finding only the evidence to support your conclusion. You are ignoring the other evidence to suggest that one year doesn’t make or break a players developmental curve.

    That is the entire problem with your argument.

  49. mc79hockey says:

    Mike Grier was a .42ppg guy and if Pitlick or Hamilton turns into him, I’d be fairly happy. (yes I know that Grier was picked in the extinct 9th round, but I’m of the belief that once picked it doesn’t matter from where)

    Yeah, I agree. With that said: if one of them makes it as a third liner, it doesn’t do anything to support the title of Magnificent Bastard for Stu.

    I do think that given their late birthdays that this is really their 19 year old year in the AHL, not their 20 year old year.

    Not so sure that I agree here. This effect diminishes each year. These guys have as much time playing hockey as anyone that they’re competing against. With each passing year, the age effect matters less.

  50. nathan says:

    “if one of them makes it as a third liner, it doesn’t do anything to support the title of Magnificent Bastard for Stu”

    Back to VOR’s comment. What percentage of 2nd rounders reach that “support” level? Late 1st rounders? What should out-produce look like for a CHL F sample with one late first rounder and two second rounder?

  51. mc79hockey says:

    Well I kind of addressed this in my post. Actually, I precisely addressed it – with Stu’s CHL F picks to date (treating Pitlick as a CHLer because he went that way after being drafted), he should produce something like 2.65 200 GP+ 0.5 PPG+ F and 1.5 200 GP+ and 0.5 PPG- guys.

    I would guess he ends up with three of teh former and somewhere between 0-2 of the latter. Averagish right now, to slightly above average, with potential to fluctuate around average in the future.

  52. Woodguy says:

    mc79hockey:
    Mike Grier was a .42ppg guy and if Pitlick or Hamilton turns into him, I’d be fairly happy. (yes I know that Grier was picked in the extinct 9th round, but I’m of the belief that once picked it doesn’t matter from where)

    Yeah, I agree.With that said: if one of them makes it as a third liner, it doesn’t do anything to support the title of Magnificent Bastard for Stu.

    I do think that given their late birthdays that this is really their 19 year old year in the AHL, not their 20 year old year.

    Not so sure that I agree here.This effect diminishes each year.These guys have as much time playing hockey as anyone that they’re competing against.With each passing year, the age effect matters less.

    I agree that the age effect flattens out in the early 20′s so I don’t these guys are quite past it yet.

    These guys are close and I’d want to see another year.

    I agree that I’d like to see more from Pitlick in terms of scoring.

    Given Pitlick’s 3 leagues in 3 years, I’m more inclined to give him more rope.

    Not sure Hamilton was pegged to more than a 3rd liner, so him making the NHL as one is probably a win.

    Are you able to send me your data for my thing?

  53. mc79hockey says:

    Woodguy,

    Yep will do.

  54. Doogie2K says:

    I agree that the last statement was overly sweeping, but all that means is that there should have been the qualification there that, at least for CHL F, MacGregor has met or slightly exceeded expectations, but not blown them out of the water. If nothing else, picking Cam Abney in the third round should stand on the record as being spectacularly stupid.

    And yes, obviously I’m quite keen to see the rest of the data to see where things ultimately land. I have a feeling that it’s going to land about the same place overall, but I am curious how many scouting departments significantly outperform or underperform those expectations. I wonder if there’s really a ton of spread one way or the other. Maybe “slightly” above average is a bigger deal than it would appear.

  55. Woodguy says:

    mc79hockey,

    Was editing my post and ran out of time.

    The age thing imo (and the subject of my research), hinges on not only physical maturity, but mental maturity, and much less on games played.

    That’s why I’m more inclined to give late birthdays a slide.

  56. Woodguy says:

    mc79hockey:
    Woodguy,

    Yep will do.

    Thanks!

  57. cabbiesmacker says:

    I’ve been largely unconvinced of Stu getting the abundance of praise he does and have never been a big fan of the Pitlick selection despite reports that he “almost made the Oilers out of camp last year.”

    I do agree that it’s entirely too early to judge at this point. Stu’s best future resume highlights might actually come from his work in rounds 3 through 7 but right now those look like Dmen.

    Perhaps we should now refer to him as MMBS, Marginally Magnificent Bastard Stu, but he gets a pass from me until late next season. We’d really have some bitching to do if he was CF’ing the first rounders. (cross fingers for Klefbom)

    I do have doubts that he could replicate the 2007 first round basket of crap we ended up with if he’d never read a report or visited an amateur arena, so at least we’re “better”. Small steps in Oilerland.

  58. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Woodguy: The age thing imo (and the subject of my research), hinges on not only physical maturity, but mental maturity, and much less on games played.
    That’s why I’m more inclined to give late birthdays a slide.

    You and I are on the same page w.r.t. that last comment, WG.

    “While Pitlick, Hamilton and Martindale are all struggling to score in their 19->20 year-old seasons, let’s just say this Oiler fan is prepared to give them a little more latitude than I would a rookie pro two years out from his draft day.”

  59. rickithebear says:

    Thought comparing data from a 5’11″ forward to 6’3″ forwards was dumb. The RNH goal to Points ratio taught me that. Look specifically. Rather than general trend.

    When i look at 6’2″ to 6’4″ forawards. There are on average 2 Forwards of this size and Ahl history on each team. 6’5″ and higher was all over the board.

    When i looked at them a clear, and i mean clear trend was visible. one outlier in 10 players.
    You could see NHLE % relative PPG production vs age in the AHL.
    Age 20: 110% of Ahl total
    Age 21: 100% of AHL total
    Age 22: 70-75% of AHL totals
    Age 23: 45-55% of AHL totals.

    Age 19 turning 20 is not the time to be writing off these three. we will not trully know until ages 23.

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