Trading Samwise

Rumors abound in regard to trading Samwise on the Al Gore today. Darren Dreger, who is the de facto Peter Gammons of hockey, suggests that every time Steve Tambellini calls someone about a defenseman that 89′s the man they are after.

I like all of the new Star Trek’s better that the first one. Why? Okay, in the first Star Trek let’s say Kirk, Spock and Skinnini are heading down to the planet Klombo. Here’s a question: guess which one isn’t coming back? Every damn episode.

I think Sam Gagner might be Skinnini. The Oilers have their “no damn way we’re trading him” group and other teams have their “well we’re sure as hell not trading you anything for that!” list of Oilers. In between? What, maybe 6 guys? NHL teams are probably willing to trade for Sam Gagner, Ales Hemsky, Ryan Jones, Ryan Smyth, Tom Gilbert, Ladislav Smid, Andy Sutton, Theo Peckham and Nikolai Khabibulin. That’s my list, your mileage may vary.

The Oilers are probably willing to trade most of those guys depending on return. If Steve Tambellini is trying to:

  • make a deadline deal for a puck moving defenseman
  • with a team that is either in the playoffs or plans to make a run
  • Sam Gagner probably HAS to be part of the package.

I wouldn’t deal Gagner. I don’t think the Oilers know what he is yet, and if there’s one thing Sam Pollock taught us it’s that you trade young men only after you know what they can and cannot do for you. The organization has invested all this time in developing this talent, and trading him at age 22 runs counter to what good teams do with this player type.

I don’t think the Oilers will be able to trade this player for full value at this time. He’s a hard working 22 year old with skill and intelligence. I know he’s not 6.04 and I know he isn’t a speed demon, but there are things he can do for an NHL team.

Otherwise, NHL teams wouldn’t ask after him.

 

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84 Responses to "Trading Samwise"

  1. Rondo says:

    LT,
    With the rumours from Darren Dreger re Sam Gagner.

    What would it take to get

    Jake Gardiner and Nkolai Kulemin for Sam Gagner + ?

  2. Lowetide says:

    Rondo: Hmmm. I don’t think Toronto would trade for Gagner. Also, Gardiner is a guy they might end up playing for a decade on the top 2 pairings and Kulemin is a fine player having an off-season.

    I think that’s a non-starter. jmo.

  3. DeadmanWaking says:

    That was freaky. I was here with the cars, lost the page, pulled it up again, saw the classic Samwise, thought my bookmarks had pulled up the old site by mistake. But no, it’s Samwise day.

    When I do the Venn diagrams in my mind, it’s always Samwise who comes out on the bubble. Not sure I like this, but for a meaningful trade you need a common currency, and Samwise best fits the bill. Huge strides in the face-off dot would bump his conservation status down from endangered to merely conservation dependent.

  4. cabbiesmacker says:

    I have no problems trading Gagner and certainly far prefer that to a Hemsky departure. Maybe we could dangle him in front of the 5 teams he’s scored on this year?? Toss out the EN’er I guess.

    Decent enough kid but he’s a tweener and we have enough of those already. Horcoff is all but untradeable with the NMC and we desperately need to improve at C to keep up with what we have on the wings.

  5. nathan says:

    #89 AFTER the trade deadline:

    “I’m alIve… I’m-… I’m the plucky comic relief! I’m the plucky comic relief!”

  6. rich says:

    I just wonder who would get you more and the fact that everyone keeps asking for Gagner and it seems that no one really is asking for Hemsky I think is interesting.

    Sam Pollack’s words are excellent ones to live by. There are a lot of people on this blog who have trashed Gagner, don’t think he’s going to amount to a hill of beans.

    But the number of teams calling and asking for Gagner specifically is a tell to me that he’s more highly valued as he’s younger and he’s NEVER had a good supporting cast.

    Hemsky is viewed as an injury risk and is a rental. Seems he may not get as much value.

    Just sayin, but I think trading Gagner is a huge mistake unless you are really getting that top pairing d-man we desperately need.

  7. boopronger says:

    LT,

    You are always talking about not trading away players until you know what you’ve got. Isnt it too late then to pull one over on another GM? If you are smarter than the other guy, you should be able to predict how your side of the deal will turn out and know that what you are getting in return is much better than what you are giving up.

  8. Lowetide says:

    boopronger,

    Well I don’t think there are too many trades where one team pulls it over another. Most are need for need. Having said that, I do think the Oilers give up on their own too early. Chimera, Brodziak, hell I think they gave up on Pouliot too soon.

  9. shanestrain says:

    who is she?! Yummy. Looks like Beyonce circa 1971. Prime Pam Grier next?

    Would hate to lose Sam Gagner.

  10. OilClog says:

    Trading Sam would make no sense in any sort of sense. if that makes any sense. he’s only going to get better. A hard working, excellent plug, seems like a guy that would take a bit of a discount to stay with the team when they really start improving in the seasons to come.

    Can’t stand Brodziak, before or after. Glad he’s not an Oiler.

  11. peeps says:

    Lowetide: Well I don’t think there are too many trades where one team pulls it over another…

    *cough *cough visnovsky-for-whitney *cough…

    In all fairness, had Whitney managed to get healthy again, I’d be singing a different tune. I just hope that the next trade Tambellini executes makes me feel smug. Not the brief smug I felt when we got POS + a 2nd for Cole (that lasted a few minutes until I realized we had temporarily owned Williams), but a longer term smug like the one I felt when we got Pronger for Brewer+ (hey… it lasted around 9 months or so? What a great time it was).

    I just don’t see us trading Gagner right now (on pace this year for 8 goals, -8) and me ending up with this coveted long-term smugness.

  12. Bos8 says:

    Gagner trade? Too many duplicate skills, already on the Oilers. I don’t know how accurate it is, but 5’11, 195 is not small. It’s always surprised me at how weak, Gagner is on his skates.

  13. oilersfan says:

    In my opinion to be a cup contender this team needs four things: a star goalie, a stud dman, a high end second line center, and a power forward.

    I am a Gagner fan and hoped he would be like Doug Gilmour. It is odd how he has not progressed. He is slowish, small, average shot, and loses more than half of his faceoffs. With his lack of size he needs to be better at one or more of those things to elevate his game. 5 years later what has he improved at? He also turns the puck over too much….

    I don’t see him being any of those assets needed to win a stanley so I would advocate for trying to get a power forward for him. There is word that Chicago is interested in him so I wonder about Mark Mcneil and Chcago’s first, or Mcneil and Brandon Saad.

    Pierre Maguire was on Dave Campbell-Tencer’s show tonight saying Gagner would attract a lot of attention and garner substantial assets at the deadline citing Washington as a source of interest. I wonder if they would trade Colorado’s first for him? I can’t see them giving up Alzner or Carlson, or Brower. Maguire says Washington has lots of dmen. Who do they have that the Oilers would want after Alzner and Carlson?

  14. DSF says:

    What exactly is Gagner’s role down the road?

    It’s highly unlikely he is a top 6 forward and he doesn’t possess the skills normally associated with third line players in that he is small, slow, easy to knock off the puck, doesn’t kill penalties and doesn’t score much unless he get’s a lot of minutes.

    His P/60 of 1.48 is currently 190th in the NHL and, while he had a slow start to the season, he has never been able to match the points he put up in his rookie season.

    I’ve said a few times that he reminds me most of Kyle Wellwood (P/60 2.04) although some GM’s may still see his upside as higher than that.

    If Tambellini can get a GM to buy into that and get a solid return in an area of need, I think he has to pull the trigger.

  15. DSF says:

    Logan Couture
    Logancouture Logan Couture

    Who went last? I missed the end of the draft?
    39 minutes ago
    Retweeted by eduhatschek

  16. godot10 says:

    When comparing Gagner to Gilmour, one should remember that Gilmour was only in his 2nd year in the NHL at the same age Gagner is now. Gilmour was better out of the blocks as a rookie than Gagner was last year at the same age, but it was still another 2 or three seasons before Doug Gilmour became “Doug Gilmour”.

    Sam Gagner won’t be “Sam Gagner” for another couple of years yet.

  17. DSF says:

    godot10:
    When comparing Gagner to Gilmour, one should remember that Gilmour was only in his 2nd year in the NHL at the same age Gagner is now.Gilmour was better out of the blocks as a rookie than Gagner was last year at the same age, but it was still another 2 or three seasons before Doug Gilmour became “Doug Gilmour”.

    Sam Gagner won’t be “Sam Gagner” for another couple of years yet.

    Gilmour scored 42 goals and 105 points in 80 games as a 23 year old.

    Gagner turns 23 in 6 months.

    You can’t get there from here.

  18. Bos8 says:

    Gilmour scored 42 goals and 105 points in 80 games as a 23 year old.
    Gagner turns 23 in 6 months.
    You can’t get there from here.
    DSF(Quote)

    Okay, now that’s true and funny. I won’t run out my postule quotes for at least two rounds.

  19. Brett Gee says:

    Godot10: “Sam Gagner won’t be “Sam Gagner” for another couple of years yet.”

    I really like that line.

    I really don’t understand it. Has it been 4 or 5 years of Sam thus far, i can’t remember. That’s a lot of investment to trade away for a defenseman prospect and perhaps some sort of draft pick. Why do we trade away someone like Gagner for someone who could end up being in the exact same developmental stage as Gagner 4 years from now?

    He’s not a bad player, he will get better. Where does he fit? I think we could still use him as a 2nd line center.

    As others suggest, I just can’t imagine the return on him being worth it at this time. Even a Penner type return, in my opinion, would be a waste.

  20. Bos8 says:

    oilersfan: Pierre Maguire was on Dave Campbell-Tencer’s show tonight saying Gagner would attract a lot of attention and garner substantial assets at the deadline citing Washington as a source of interest. I wonder if they would trade Colorado’s first for him? I can’t see them giving up Alzner or Carlson, or Brower. Maguire says Washington has lots of dmen. Who do they have that the Oilers would want after Alzner and Carlson?

    A fellow named Simon Depres comes to mind on D.

    Or a PF for the two Nugies. Chris Tangradi. That’s who I would salivate for.

    Per Hockey Futures

    Tangradi is a prototypical power forward with a thick 6’4 frame, soft hands, and a surly on-ice disposition. The only two knocks on him ever were his skating and his inability to realize his vast natural abilities. Over the past two seasons, those have been addressed as he has developed an explosive first step and uses his size and strength to his advantage every time he steps on the ice.

    Offensively his greatest strength is his net-front presence. He knows how to use his big strong body in front of the net and can create match-up problems for opposing defensemen. He displays the same warrior mentality when battling for loose pucks or playing in high-traffic areas of the ice. His hockey IQ is also very high, which combined with his offensive abilities, allows him to create offensive opportunities for himself and his linemates.

    Now that’s what I would call a #1 line. Scary stuff – drool.

    Talk about a no brainer line name 2Nugies and the Beast. Worth the trade right there.

  21. godot10 says:

    DSF,

    Perhaps you might want to normalize that 105 points by the difference int he average number of points per game than vs. now. Gilmour had his break out year in what would be next year for Gagner. In general he was more a 90-95 points player over the next 5 years in a live puck era.

    So If Gagner had a breakout season a 70-75 point seasons over the next five years that would be a rough equivalent, which is not inconceivable, if he is played in a second line role with legitimate wingers.

    Gagner will never be Gilmour defensively though.

  22. spoiler says:

    Samwise, supposedly the strong, thick hobbit of the Fellowship, is not the Great Took that Gilmour was.

  23. TheOtherJohn says:

    Have no difficulty waiting to see if Gagner can take a step forward from where he is today. Problem is I have a hard time seeing us play two soft centers in our top six IF we intend to compete for the SC. All bets are off if we trade for an elite D man but that is unlikely.

    Good to test the waters to see what market will bear but if you don’t get you value equally back in a trade….hold

  24. Ribs says:

    I kind of put Gagner in the Brad Boyes camp. He’s a guy that you could trade, but that is capable of making you regret doing so in short order.

    At this point, I don’t see the need to trade him. He’s a developing young player and you’re likely to get a mixed bag back for him or prospects/picks which only pushes the rebuild farther back.

    Unless a big name defenceman is on the table, sit on those thumbs, Mr. Tambellini Man.

  25. VOR says:

    I have no clue who is a good comparable for Gagner.

    What I do know is that he plays the second toughest opponents of any center on the Oilers and does it with the second worst teammates of any center. Despite that he has the best Corsi and Relative Corsi of any center. In other words, while we haven’t been paying much attention Gagner has been learning to hold his own, even to thrive in tough minutes. Good secondary scorer, can hold his own against pretty good players (even playing with terrible teammates) and he is coming up on 23 and has already played over 5000 minutes in the NHL.

    Yeah I understand why other GMs are calling. They want to see if Tambellini is a dumb as all us bloggers keep saying. Gagner is a keeper and they know it.

    Stop thinking about his size and watch what actually happens on the ice. Gagner is now winning as many puck battles as he is losing. He is fiery and competitive, can play all three forward positions, and is beginning to earn the respect and trust of his coach. The only real flaw in Gagner as a prototype 2C is that he can’t win face offs. Though this year he has gotten up to 48.4%.

    This kid is showing us, in a lot of ways, especially since coming back from the injury, that he is a legitimate NHLer.

  26. Ribs says:

    Back – that should say. Where’d the edit button go?

  27. Lowetide says:

    Ribs: I fixed it for you, the edit button disappears after 5 minutes. Danny=Hal. :-)

  28. justDOit says:

    There’s a reason that other teams are inquiring about Gagner – he has potential. If the return fits the needs (and timing) of the Oilers, then that’s what it takes. This team is heavy on light players, and light on heavy players, and this needs to change if they are going to take the next step towards respectability.

  29. Ribs says:

    Thanks, LT.

    I went to fix it one minute later though…hmm. Does the timer start ticking once the page loads?

  30. Lowetide says:

    Ribs: No idea. Sorry.

  31. boopronger says:

    I think the oilers should take a run at PK subban. Young defenseman with tons of potential that is having problems with the current management in Montreal. Looks like a good trade possibility to me. What would it take?

  32. spoiler says:

    That doesn’t mean Samwise might not turn out to be smarter than Gilmour. and we’re not talking about Samsonov on D either. Sam IS smart and he IS committed. And I think the Oilers are pretty aware of that. But if the talk is true and the Oil can deal Khabby, then they’re definitely taking a run at someone like Bernier.

  33. Gerta Rauss says:

    I would be listening to offers ,but in no hurry to trade Gagner. Traktor made a good point the other night-we’re all clamoring for an upgrade on D,but reluctant to trade anything of value. Gagner is a nice young player with plenty of potential to have a long career-trading him a for nice young defenceman with plenty of potential to have a long career is something you have to consider.If it’s picks and prospects then pass.

  34. spoiler says:

    Would you do it if it’s Bernier and not a Dman?

  35. Gerta Rauss says:

    That’s a tough one-probably not.Goalies are voodoo.

  36. Gerta Rauss says:

    To elaborate on that-the Oilers will have other avenues to get a goalie-UFA,waiver wire,trade(for something other than Gagner)
    They don’t have the same avenues to get good,young defenceman.

  37. Lowetide says:

    If the Oilers are going to follow any model, even to the slightest degree, please baby Jesus let it be the Detroit model in regard to goaltending.

  38. oilersfan says:

    Gagner’s best hockey as an Oiler was probably playing with Penner. To succeed he needs a big man to play with him.

    Funny, I think Penner needs a high end playmaker to succeed too. Funny how that works.

    Also funny how Brendan Smith is this elite prospect drafted 27th overall in 2007. The Oilers had three cracks at him themselves and missed all three times. I know Prendergrast was in charge at that time but Mcgregor was the head scout, and being based in Kamloops would have watched a lot of Plante and Nash. He has to own part of those two huge errors. Not sure what Mcgregor’s role was then but he was not too magnificent that day. The way MP is going vis a vis Ellis and Rundblad June of 2009 not looking that magnificent either.

  39. cabbiesmacker says:

    I don’t see any similarities between Killer and Gagner at all. Even if Gagner somehow manages to score a seemingly lofty 60 points some year in the future I still won’t.

    Don’t get the angst over possibly trading a guy who is struggling to get back to his rookie levels….4 years later. Even if he goes somewhere else to realize his potential the guy we replace him with might be better NOW. To get you gotta give and maybe some of these teams we here are lined up out the door will overpay for the kid.

    All I see is poor Sammy never gets quality linemates. So earn them kid. If you’re a complimentary player reliant on others to do your heavy lifting for you then I’d suggest you aren’t what we need going forward. Who’s Jordan Staal been playing with the past few? I’d trade Gagner for him in ballpark a nanosecond.

    RNH + Gagner the future 1-2 punch? Talk about easy to play against until Nooge becomes 99 lite and we can find another Hall and Eberle to make Sammy look decent. Gack.

    I wonder if Washington being a little tight to the cap and Semin needing a new contract makes them consider trading Greene and if ST would entertain the possibility. We take a chance on health while they take a chance on realized potential.

    BOS8…did you jump from Washington to Pittsburgh and mean Eric Tangradi? The one just promoted from the ECHL? Ummm…no thanks. Guys got BUM written all over him after showing some decent potential

  40. slipper says:

    If Sam Gagner is traded it will make us all look like idiots. All Of US!

  41. cabbiesmacker says:

    VOR:
    I have no clue who is a good comparable for Gagner.

    Scott Gomez?

    I wouldn’t fret too much VOR. Gagner won’t go anywhere until at least summertime. We can’t get what we need most right now off the contention teams.

    I would very much like a deal with Washington if it meant Holtby was a part of things coming this way.

  42. Lowetide says:

    If the Oilers can trade Gagner for a better player with a better future then the future is brighter. However, based on transaction records of Mr. Tambellini and Gagner’s current value that’s a tall order imo.

  43. Bos8 says:

    cabbiesmacker: BOS8…did you jump from Washington to Pittsburgh and mean Eric Tangradi? The one just promoted from the ECHL? Ummm…no thanks. Guys got BUM written all over him after showing some decent potential

    Yep, screwed up – multitasking, maybe brain cramp. I’ve been following him for a long time. Puzzles me that he would have been in the ECHL after AHL last year. Unless it was a personality tuneup.

    NB

    I just checked hockey DB and it shows Tangradi with 12 games in Pitt and 31 games with WBS in AHL. No mention of ECHL, wouldn’t have been time.

    I still maintain that the two Nugies need a presence, a corner man, someone to give them room to boogie. I wanted Harsky in house but Tangradi would be even better. Bigger and meaner. A lot of time it’s hard to project young players until they come across a match made in heaven. Tangradi 14-11 in 31 games in the AHL, so he’s not chopped liver.

  44. danny says:

    Think back 15 or so years ago. Marc Savard.

    Calgary had a similar sized guy with a similar pedigree. There was a lot of buzz around his skill, which eventually passed by way of impatience and wanting more size they flipped him to the Thrashers for a 6’2 220lb winger that would bust.

    Unless the trade makes a whole lot of sense, like a stud young D, preferably someone that’s high on MacGregors charts, or established in the bugs already, then don’t trade him. Not yet.

  45. speeds says:

    It’ll be interesting to see what EDM does with Gagner. I’d be surprised if they move him at the deadline, because what they might be looking for may not be there at the deadline, as noted by cabbiesmacker.

    I wouldn’t be surprised to see EDM try to sign Gagner to an extension prior to the draft, and if they can’t find common ground, perhaps move him at that time.

    I don’t think I’d be too anxious to move him, were I in charge, but if you’re not going to be able to lock him up for multiple years you have to keep him in mind that he’s a UFA in two years, so if you can get someone and/or draft picks back that fit better with the timeline, tough to not look at it.. Maybe you wait and see what CBA changes come about, but are those likely to be beneficial

  46. wallsallbrassbuttons says:

    If you don’t trade Gagner for defensive help, who DO you trade? Especially if the Oilers end up taking Grigorenko this summer, which is what I personally am hoping for. In order to get a true difference maker on defense, you need to give up some good talent, and given the composition of this team I don’t think the loss of Gagner would necessarily hurt as much as the potential gain would be. Of course, it all depends on return though.

    If the Oilers end up with Yakupov, though, I don’t think I’d trade Samwise quite yet. XXX-Nuge-Eberle and Hall-Gagner-Yakupov could be two deadly combos, and at the very least, playing a year with that level of talent would likely make Gagner’s value increase. In any event though, if you can find a deal that makes the team significantly better on the blue for now and for the future, I think you’ve got to do it.

  47. cdean says:

    If they trade Samwise then they are not thinking. There is not anyone in their forward core that I would be thinking of trading. The problem lies in their defense and goaltending situation. The defense only needs a #1 and the rest should be in the pipeline but that will take time. They can look for something to bridge the gap of prospects and now.

    The problem as I see it in their forward core is also about development. they don’t know what they have yet so trading it away is giving up. They have run the mistake of not letting some develop in the AHL and some in the AHL should have had longer looks up in the NHL. Poor asset management IMO.

    If they do decide to make a trade then they must be sure what they are getting back is better than what they are sending out. This goes for position as well as skill set. Gagner is key to our second line IMO.

  48. Beaker says:

    Why would be be trading anyone to get significantly better at the trade deadline? At most a high end prospect. Even if you could get a top 4 Dman right now, you would just be trading for a peice that is likely to get you a worse draft pick? That doesn’t seem right to me. Any trades like that should take place in the summer where they belong.

  49. pboy says:

    danny: Think back 15 or so years ago. Marc Savard. Calgary had a similar sized guy with a similar pedigree. There was a lot of buzz around his skill, which eventually passed by way of impatience and wanting more size they flipped him to the Thrashers for a 6’2 220lb winger that would bust. Unless the trade makes a whole lot of sense, like a stud young D, preferably someone that’s high on MacGregors charts, or established in the bugs already, then don’t trade him. Not yet.

    Great post.

    If trading Samwise make the Oilers a better team immediately, than pull the trigger. But only if you are getting a player who will make a bigger contribution to the team than Sam is capable of. This team needs to start adding productive parts now, not focusing on what they could become 3 or 4 years in the future. There are players on this team who have been there awhile who have no idea what a .500 season feels like in the bigs.

  50. Jordan says:

    Spent far too long on the drive in this morning listening to terrible trade proposal on the team 1260. However, Bobby Mac was on air this morning and was asked about the Carter issue in Bluejacket Land. His suggestion was that they would want some forward prospects coming back.

    I have no interest in J.C. for the Oilers, but we certainly have the forward prospects, especially since we have so many high first rounders.

    Something I would like to see explored:
    To Nashville: Jeff Carter, 3rd round pick (LAK),
    To Columbus: Magnus Pajaarvi, Linus Omark, Colten Tubert, 3rd round pick (EDM)
    To Edmonton: Ryan Sutter

    Why this deal works: Nashville gets a scoring forward on a long term sweetheart deal.
    Columbus gets a pair of 1st rounders to make up for the two they traded, plus a skilled winger and an extra pick
    The Oilers get a top pairing D-man.

    Might not be a deal anyone wants to make at the deadline… but then again maybe it is.

  51. pboy says:

    Spector was talking about a horrible trade yesterday. Hemsky AND Gagner for Ryan Ellis. That’s a ton for a kid who hasn’t proven anything in the Bigs yet.

  52. DSF says:

    godot10,

    Gilmour finished 5th in league scoring in his 23 year old season ahead of Dino Ciccarelli, Dale Hawerchuk and Michel Goulet and only 2 points behind Messier.

    To accomplish the same comparative feat, Gagner would need to outscore Stamkos, both Sedins, Kessel, Toews and Spezza next season and be nipping at Datsyuk heels.

    I’m curious what you see in Sam’s game that makes you think he has that kind of offensive ability.

  53. Captain Obvious says:

    pboy,

    The only thing preventing Spector from being the dumbest person on the planet is the existence of Bob Stauffer.

    These people are functionally retarded. The worst thing is that because of the social dynamic of knowledge it is possible that the media’s role as sounding board reflects back onto the management of the NHL team. That is, our management because dumber by their proximity and interaction with our media. That’s why I want someone like Tortorella. Someone who treats the media like they deserve to be treated. That guy might make mistakes but at least you know he is insulated from the bottom spectrum of the population by his contempt for them.

  54. rickithebear says:

    Gilmour was histrically a Second line Center ojn his team except for two years in toronto. 92-93 (29)and 93-94(30) when he was setting up two 50 goal scorers in Andreychuck and Clark.
    his 20 to 22 season he had 43% of the top ten scoring average.
    his 23 years old season he had 40 Goals and two 30 goal scorers to set up and had a 94%season.
    Age 24 to 28 he was a 72% of league top 10.
    Age 29-30 he ws 98% of league top 10 .
    Age31 to 36 he was a 65% of league top 10
    Age 37-39 he was 40% of league top 10.

    Gagner:
    Age 18-21 has been 47% of league top 10 during this time.
    this year 47%
    He has to get 66 points/season fromage 23-28 to be on par with Gilmour. 18G 48 Assists.
    Being a set-up player Gagner need two 25G wingers to get the 50 assists. No different than what Gilmour had 30, 40, 50 goal scorers to pad the assists.
    Age 31 to 36 he needs 65% a 59 point season. 16G 43A season. playing with two 20G scorers.

    gagner is never going to get to play with two 50 G scorers or A 30 and a 40 G scorer in his 23 year old season. other than that he has a chance to have a Gilmour Career.

  55. FastOil says:

    No good player should be traded without proper return. Really that is what the issue is, few of us believe the “brain trust” won’t screw this up, again.

    Is Gagner a talent? Yes. Is he an elite talent? Not likely. Can the Oilers survive without him? Yes.

    I have been watching him closely lately, and he has improved in some areas. The thing that I see with him is what I believe Knightstown (?) commented on about Cogliano – poor edges. Gagner is faster but he can’t change direction worth a hoot. It’s why IMO he isn’t good on the boards and loses puck battles so easily.

    Smyth isn’t supposed to be a good skater, but he has incredible edges. No first step, but he glides effortlessly and turns on a dime, and I think the edges give him that great balance which allows a scrawny guy to be so good on the boards. It wouldn’t bother me if Gagner was dealt properly because I see the skating as setting the outer marker for him, especially in the playoffs when things tighten up.

    Gilmour was a fantastic skater and had ten times the battle Sam has. It may have been the live puck era when he played, but the league was also populated with psychos like Suter, Messier and Stevens. If Sam gets a heck of a lot meaner and more competitive and learns how to skate better (which I think is key for a weaker player) he might approach what Gilmour was, but not as it stands as I see it.

  56. rickithebear says:

    Ryan Getzlaf is pretty lucky to have the 30 and 40G scorers to set-up. imagine him setting up Jones and MP. He would make gagner look like a set-up god.

  57. gcw_rocks says:

    I don’t think the issue is whether to trade Gagner or not, its “for what” and “when”. When you are a league bottom feeder, anyone on the team should be tradeable. But no asset should be traded for the sake of making a trade.

    Teams do not give up top 4 defencemen when they are contending for the cup. They give them up on draft day or heading into free agency . Unless Washington is offering Alzer or Carlson, or another team offering an equivilent PROVEN and CONTROLABLE defenceman trading Sam at the deadline makes little sense.

    I am in the camp that thinks gagner is one of if not the Oilers best tradeable asset, but if he is traded for more “futures”, just shoot me now. not sure how much more Oiler misery I can take.

  58. Bos8 says:

    Gagner is playing with Hall and Hemsky, the best offensive weapons the Oilers have to offer. Both Hall and Hemsky carry the puck up ice so he doesn’t have to. How’s that working out? What skills does he have, that he can develop? What’s he going to get better at?

    Now bear in mind that Gagner is a second generation hockey player and was on a high level development, skills and knowledge program compared to other kids, just from his father. He’s what is called in baseball, a high floor, low ceiling player. Using the baseball analogy, rate his skills/toolchest on the 80 scale with 40 as average.

    I use a very simple formula for rating hockey players – Do they improve the players around them?
    Either he’s a top six guy or he doesn’t fit.
    Endit

  59. cabbiesmacker says:

    Lowetide:
    If the Oilers can trade Gagner for a better player with a better future then the future is brighter. However, based on transaction records of Mr. Tambellini and Gagner’s current value that’s a tall order imo.

    Being that he was a Lowe era pick I don’t think he’d go for chump change LT. What would irk me most would be a return of a first rounder of the outside top 20 variety. I don’t have the confidence they would get that right and don’t see it as any sort of immediate relief which is most required. Possibly if that pick were used to garner a provisional deal.

    At worst I think Gagner has to return a high percentage for 2013 prospect + decent pick.

    I don’t have big problems with Gagner really. Sure, I’d like him to be a little bigger and stronger but the main issue for me is I can’t see him supplanting Nooge and Horcoff in the 1-2 spots right now and he’s about to become a fairly expensive 3rd line option. What is he due for at re-signing? $3 – 3.5?

    I think we might be better off spending that money in other places is all.

    I’ll ask again. Would a Gagner + for Green be something we’d have interest in? Would Washington, or am I overestimating their D depth? Wash gets some room and we get our potential cornerstone that can def move the puck and lead the PP.

  60. Gerta Rauss says:

    Terry Jones latest-updates on Pitlick, Hamilton,Marincin and Martindale.

  61. cabbiesmacker says:

    FastOil:
    No good player should be traded without proper return. Really that is what the issue is, few of us believe the “brain trust” won’t screw this up, again.

    Is Gagner a talent? Yes. Is he an elite talent? Not likely.Can the Oilers survive without him? Yes.

    I have been watching him closely lately, and he has improved in some areas. The thing that I see with him is what I believe Knightstown (?) commented on about Cogliano – poor edges. Gagner is faster but he can’t change direction worth a hoot. It’s why IMO he isn’t good on the boards and loses puck battles so easily.

    It’s interesting how we all see different flaws / assets in players. I see Gagner being really good when he’s in close with his wingers. He’s creative, has real quick hands, and can set things up well ala the nifty little no look feed the other night.

    I do see him as a C with issues distributing the puck when things get spread out. He is not an accurate long passer and tends to throw up a lot of low percentage lobbers and waist high jobs.

  62. hags9k says:

    89 will become the 2nd line center we need and should wear a letter, maybe even the C. 22 years old, experience, lots of skill, heart and has the right attitude and work ethic.

    The return would have to be huge, and it won’t be.

    He’s a keeper people, be patient. He maybe won’t become Gilmour, but I bet he comes close. And maybe he has Yakupov on his wing next year…

    This would be a deal we are sure to regret.

  63. cranky says:

    I know it stems back to Kevin ’5 assets’ Lowe, but can assets become players again? Either that or start referring to the roster as the General Ledger.

  64. Traktor says:

    hags9k:
    89 will become the 2nd line center we need and should wear a letter, maybe even the C.22 years old, experience, lots of skill, heart and has the right attitude and work ethic.

    The return would have to be huge, and it won’t be.

    He’s a keeper people, be patient.He maybe won’t become Gilmour, but I bet he comes close.And maybe he has Yakupov on his wing next year…

    This would be a deal we are sure to regret.

    On one hand you say that Gagner is close to Gilmour and possible Captain material and on the other hand you say that Gagner wouldn’t have huge trade value. That makes zero sense.

    Do you know something about Gagner that 29 NHL GM’s don’t? If Gagner is close to Gilmour then why wouldn’t he have massive value? I mean, Gilmour was recently induced in the HHOF.

  65. Master Lok says:

    Sam Gagner won’t be “Sam Gagner” for another couple of years yet.

    If Sam Gagner isn’t Sam Gagner yet, then why would any playoff team be interested in trading for him? Playoff teams usually trade at the deadline for help that is needed NOW, not players who are not established yet.

    That leaves teams that are out of the playoff hunt – who usually trade UFAs or older players which shouldn’t interest the Oilers. A trade near the summer draft might make more sense for Gagner, but I just can’t see the point of a trading Gagner at the deadline.

  66. hags9k says:

    Traktor,

    I said the RETURN would have to be huge, but that it wouldn’t be. And that is partly because he is having a down season statistically, but mostly because I have no faith Lowebellini will get even close to 100 cents. But I think he does have huge value and that’s why I say keep him.

  67. Traktor says:

    I would think someone that is comparable to Gilmour would bring a huge RETURN.

    Unless he isn’t very much like Gilmour.

  68. hags9k says:

    Also I didn’t say he is Gilmour right now and that his trade value now should be HHOF material, cmon. I said he can become a player like that in the future given his age. Maybe just re-read the post?

  69. Traktor says:

    hags9k:
    Also I didn’t say he is Gilmour right now and that his trade value now should be HHOF material, cmon.I said he can become a player like that in the future given his age.Maybe just re-read the post?

    I read your post.

    You said,

    - I bet Gagner comes close to Gilmour
    - Gagner should be wearing a letter, maybe even the C
    - Gagner’s return in a trade wouldn’t be huge

    Kyle Turris’ career high was 25 points and he was recently traded for a huge RETURN. If Gagner has Gilmour potential I would expect something like Shea Weber straight up.

    I think we can all agree though that Steve Tambellini is unlikely to trade Gagner so that should make some of the fans sleep well.

  70. hags9k says:

    Traktor,

    You are misunderstanding present and future tense. I do think he is already worthy of a letter, but that is besides the point.

    I said he will become a player close to Gilmour, not already is a player close to Gilmour.

    I don’t think we will get a decent deal for him, or RETURN, in the now based on his current season and Tambo’s track record. Comes down to potential. I’m just saying I think he’s a keeper who has a long way to go to reach his peak. If we trade him now, I think we’ll get fleeced.

    I hope you are right though and he isn’t going to get dealt, it will make me sleep a little easier.

  71. bookje says:

    Wait a minute – what if Gagner is actually Gilmour – has anyone seen a picture of the two of them in the same place at the same time.

    It would make total sense, Gilmour wants to come back and play hockey but knows that nobody will take him seriously, so following retirement in 2003, he shaves and strikes up a career in the juniors. Soon, he starts his career as a seemingly mature 18 year old with 49 points, after that he seems to lose a step each year and sees a decline in points.

    I’m convinced, its the only logical conclusion. With that noted, I say trade him now because he is just going to go downhill as he gets closer to 50.

    Man, I can’t get over how good these sharpie markers smell today!

  72. Jordan says:

    What do we know about Sam Gagner?

    He’s been a 40+ points guy for 4 seasons.

    He’s been fairly durable.

    He’s been progressivley playing more difficult competition.

    The defense feeding him pucks in transition has gotten progressively worse over those 4 seasons.

    After doing some digging, there is only 1 other NHL forward who has scored between 40 and 50 points in all of the last 4 seasons :
    Todd Bertuzzi.

    There are 11 other forwards who have scored in that range in 3 of the last 4 years:
    Bill Guerin
    Brandon Dubinsky
    Danny Cleary
    David Legwand
    Jarret Stoll
    Mark Recchi
    Martin Erat
    Matt Cullen
    Mikael Samuelsson
    Mike Cammalleri
    Scott Hartnell
    Tim Connolly

    These are good hockey players. Sam is not included with them by chance – he’s a good hockey player too! I respect that many of you see this team’s needs on the back end, and want to make a deal to address it.

    Dealing Sam may help with that. But it will also create a big hole in the batting order – we need centres who don’t need sheltered minutes and can play the other team about even.

    I think Sam’s that guy, and I think his age and experience make him a hugely valueable piece to the Oilers, let alone another team. You’re not going to replace his points for less money, and you’re not going to replace the experience for less either.

    Like LT said – there wouldn’t be interest if he didn’t have value.

  73. DBO says:

    I guess the question becomes what is a 2nd line centre? Is he a two way player? Is he a 60 pt scorer? 70 pt scorer? Big? Small? Here are a few 2nd line centres:

    ANA: Saku Koivu (Who by the way I think is a Gagner comp)
    -Took 8 years to get 70+ pts in a season for the 1st time.

    BOS: David Krejci
    - Solid player best pt year is 73, averaged around 60 the last 3 years and is 25

    CAR: Jeff Skinner
    - top end young guy. Benefits from playing behind Staal, but he is a high end 2nd line centre.

    CHI ;Patrick Sharp
    - plays there sometimes, but better at wing. Broke out in 5th year at age 26.

    COL: Matt Duchene
    - another great young guy.55 and 67 pts in 2 seasons.

    DAL: Jamie Benn
    - breaking out at age 22. On verge of being a #1

    DET: 1 and 1A – Datzyuk and Zetterberg
    - not a shocker when you have 2 #1 Centres

    PIT: same as above, with Crosby and Malkin, with Staal being a solid 2nd line centre.

    Without going through every team it seems, not surprisingly, that the teams at the top of the standings year after year have 2 high end centres. Most teams have a 2nd line centre scoring in and around 50-60 pts. Gagner fits the majority of 2nd line centres, and one other thing that stands out, with a few small exceptions, he is younger then most and can still improve. I think he is a Koivu comp, and I would be damn pleased to have that type of player be our 2nd line centre for many years.

  74. commonfan14 says:

    DBO: ANA: Saku Koivu

    Speaking of Finns, who is the greatest Finnish player ever: Kurri or Selanne?

    #randomfridayafternoondebatetopic

  75. DBO says:

    commonfan14,

    Love Koivu, but Selanne was the better player. Koivu may have brought more all around, but Selanne is better. he has almost as many goals as Koivu has points over their career.

  76. godot10 says:

    commonfan14,

    Kurri is a better all-around player than Selanne. Kurri did all of Gretzky’s back-checking. Selanne might be a better offensive player than Kurri, but Kurri was great both ways.

    Tikkanen was an elite matchup player.

  77. godot10 says:

    The other player to compare Gagner to is Smid. We’ve patiently waited 5 years for Smid, and he’s finally arriving.

    Is Gagner a perfect player? No. But he can adequately cover the 2nd line spot. If you trade him, you create a hole in the roster not easily filled. And the Oilers may have big two-way wingers for him in Pitlick and Hamilton in a couple of years.

  78. DBO says:

    I think it is good to look at pairs when talking about lines. RNH and Eberle work well. And Gagner and Hall seem to have some chemistry. Just like for whatever reason Horcoff plays well with Hemsky, some guys just mesh. Looking at next year (assuming we resign Smyth) I see 3 pairs up front, with open spots beside them, with our 4th line being sort of set.
    ??-RNH-Eberle
    Hall-Gagner-??
    Smyth-Horcoff-???
    Eager-Belanger/Lander-Jones

    Gagner with hall all year, along with a good RW is huge. Hemsky healthy the few ganmes they played together were a legit line top 2 line. If they move Hemsky you need a good player to slot in.
    Grigorenko is a C/RW and would be real nice in that spot. Good size and all world skill with a bit of nasty to his game. get a two way 3rd liner for RW and a tough top LW and we are gold. Easy I know.

  79. russ99 says:

    wallsallbrassbuttons:
    If you don’t trade Gagner for defensive help, who DO you trade?

    You don’t trade anyone for defensive help. Every GM in the league knows we’re desperate for defensive help, so we won’t get equal value.

    Keep the kids for now, and make deals and signings to fix it in the summer…

  80. commonfan14 says:

    Wow, just reviewing Kurri’s career stats and my memory is very hazey on his lost season in Italy. Sterile Wikipedia facts only tell me that he didn’t want to sign a new deal and the Oil still had his rights, so he skipped over to Milan.

    What exactly went down there and who was to blame? That 90-91 team might have won another Cup with him on the roster.

  81. hockeyguy10 says:

    Booke,

    Interesting point you bring up about look alikes.Have you ever seen comedian Richard Lewis or Katz together in the same room?Might explain a few things in Oilerville…….

  82. OilClog says:

    Well put Russ.. every gm in the league knows what we need, and yes they’re going to try and fleece us for everything we have. Best course of action is no action at this point. Go into the summer with all our assets in the stable and decide from there. Personally I would rather go after the franchise defenceman in the offseason with the potential lottery pick being in play. Nothing in this upcoming draft screams to me, sounds like an excellent trade chip. Montreal is about to go into a rebuild, Subban is about the be ran out of town, sounds like potential to me.

  83. FastOil says:

    “Now bear in mind that Gagner is a second generation hockey player and was on a high level development, skills and knowledge program compared to other kids, just from his father. He’s what is called in baseball, a high floor, low ceiling player. Using the baseball analogy, rate his skills/toolchest on the 80 scale with 40 as average.”

    That is a great way of saying why he is a concern for many who want to be more than a “playoff team”. Not to mention the Oilers gave him a LOT of at bats despite getting his butt handed to him. How would Omark or MP look with that many no consequence hours on them?

    “I see Gagner being really good when he’s in close with his wingers. He’s creative, has real quick hands, and can set things up well ala the nifty little no look feed the other night. ”

    I think we see the same thing. If a player is near him his talent shows, but because he has less than great skating he is hooped in puck battles or finding lanes to make the long pass. The Sedins are all about floating into lanes – if they couldn’t evade they wouldn’t have players just standing in front of them for fear of getting beat. That is certainly not Sam at this point.

    “I think he is a Koivu comp, and I would be damn pleased to have that type of player be our 2nd line centre for many years.”

    Koivu can skate and can drink molten iron. Selanne can skate and puts glass dust in his smoothies. It is completely possible that Gagner’s immense talent lead him to near his potential in year one, and that his weakness on the puck and piss poor skating (for a top 6 small player) keep him close to those totals other than a career year. He’ll keep growing a bit in regular season play, but does no one else worry about a player with his weaknesses representing us in late round playoffs?

    “Gagner with hall (sic) all year, along with a good RW is huge”

    True. If he stays they have to get him a beast winger to create space and keep the puck in the O zone so he can use his skill – like why Penner made him (and everyone else) look good. ~ Hemsky for Lucic! Khabi and Smid for Perry! ~

  84. cabbiesmacker says:

    DBO:
    I guess the question becomes what is a 2nd line centre? Is he a two way player? Is he a 60 pt scorer? 70 pt scorer? Big? Small? Here are a few 2nd line centres:

    ANA: Saku Koivu (Who by the way I think is a Gagner comp)
    -Took 8 years to get 70+ pts in a season for the 1st time.

    BOS: David Krejci
    - Solid player best pt year is 73, averaged around 60 the last 3 years and is 25

    CAR: Jeff Skinner
    - top end young guy. Benefits from playing behind Staal, but he is a high end 2nd line centre.

    CHI ;Patrick Sharp
    - plays there sometimes, but better at wing. Broke out in 5th year at age 26.

    COL: Matt Duchene
    - another great young guy.55 and 67 pts in 2 seasons.

    DAL: Jamie Benn
    - breaking out at age 22. On verge of being a #1

    DET: 1 and 1A – Datzyuk and Zetterberg
    - not a shocker when you have 2 #1 Centres

    PIT: same as above, with Crosby and Malkin, with Staal being a solid 2nd line centre.

    DBo

    Skinner doesn’t play a lot of centre, Staal is Pitts third line centre when Crosby is healthy, and doubtful Gagner will ever hold a candle to any one of the names you mention.

    He’s been given time with decent linemates this year and done very little with it.

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