A Bunch Of Things I Think I Think

There are a few items rolling around in my brain, all of them completely reasonable but none (or few) that I can prove. A responsible blogger would table the things he or she can’t prove and then apply logic and reason to the remaining problems. To hell with that noise.

  1. I would think the Oilers would recall Linus Omark soon here, giving him a chance to get comfortable in a few games before hooking up with Paajarvi after the Hemsky trade. Omark is 2-1-3 +2 in 2 games since returning to action in OKC, I don’t really see any point in waiting to call him back up. Anyone have a thought on this? I mean beyond the fact that he doesn’t appear to be a guy Renney warmed to this past fall?
  2. Corey Potter must be hurt. Buddy isn’t close to the fellow he was before the injury (and contract) and the contract sure as hell wasn’t the retirement edition. I don’t think Edmonton is helping their situation by playing him if he’s as injured as it appears.
  3. Steve Tambellini’s quotes were hilarious today. If you read his comments on Gagner and Smyth and then compare them to Hemsky, there should be no question about the direction the Oilers are heading with 83.
  4. Nice to see some others wondering aloud about the Sutton signing.
  5. We were told Steve Tambellini’s contract would be renewed awhile ago, with the only gap being term. After that, crickets. It’s a minor thing, I’m sure it’ll be done soon but we were told that before. Interesting is all. Kind of a mystery.

 

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48 Responses to "A Bunch Of Things I Think I Think"

  1. russ99 says:

    I hope they don’t rush Omark back from his broken ankle.

    Let him stay in OKC until the deadline, then call him up to replace whoever’s traded, so hopefully Renney doesn’t play him with Belanger on the 3rd line again…

  2. Traktor says:

    “Its your life. You want as much security as possible so a long-term deal is best”,

    - Ales Hemsky

  3. Lowetide says:

    Traktor: I think he’ll get one.

  4. LMHF#1 says:

    I think you’re trying to outthink the thinkers by using what you think as reverse psychology to make some of what you think not happen. I think.

  5. Lowetide says:

    Man I hope so. Or not.

  6. Ribs says:

    Potter missed practice with a groin injury today, if that clears anything up for you.

  7. Traktor says:

    So do I.

    6 years 36M.

  8. Woodguy says:

    LMHF#1:
    I think you’re trying to outthink the thinkers by using what you think as reverse psychology to make some of what you think not happen. I think.

    Yeah, given LT’s record on impending trades, that’s got to be it.
    :)

  9. mattwatt says:

    Communication of this Hemsky ordeal has been funny all along. At first, nothing and he was for surely gone out of town with some great slandering from the local media. Then a bit of “hey, this guy is not so bad, but still needs to go.” Now both parties are saying they are having conversations with each other about something. Yes, the progress being made is akin to a receding glacier, but progress none the less. With a little luck things can further change. Or not.

    That said, I am resigned to the fact that Hemsky is gone. He has the right to test free agency and barring a major injury, I think the man will get paid. Rightfully so for everything he has done so far shows that he deserves it.

    As for Renney not warming up to guys this past fall, I don’t get it. Why was he limiting MPS and Omark’s time with skill players, while giving the kids a bunch of time to figure things out. I understand the kids should play with skill, but why not give Omark and MPS a chance every once in awhile too? We saw what happened when MPS played with Horcoff and Hemsky, yet Renney only put Magnus with those players mainly because of injury. You would think that MPS plays a more coach-friendly game than the others (responsible, defensive first without giving up a bunch, game a coach favors) yet Renney tells MPS that his sideburns are so long he will start giving him the nickname “hasidic.” Just confuses me.

    Then again, a lot about this team confuses me. Starting with constantly shipping out talent for magic beans.

  10. mc79hockey says:

    @Spoiler

    Missed you in the previous thread. In and of itself, I wouldn’t get too worked up about any one contract. I don’t think you’re defending this contract on the basis that Tambo hasn’t overpaid him. It sounds to me like you’re just looking at it in isolation. When you look at his body work, it’s another piece of a pattern. I don’t think other players give a shit about how generous you are to other players – nobody’s coming here because Horcoff is so well paid.

    As for the potential to trade him for a pick next year, you can’t really count that as part of the deal. We already had that this year and decided to forego it for a more tenuous possibility next year.

    In any event, it’s one deal. You can’t say it’s not part of a pattern though.

  11. russ99 says:

    Mattwatt:

    Still waiting for the MPS, Lander, Omark line. Should have been obvious for the coaches to try this at least for a game or two…

    I just really hope they don’t deal Linus at the deadline (due to RFA) without giving him a real shot on a skill line.

  12. cabbiesmacker says:

    Not much point worrying about what MIGHT happen until it happens. If it even happens. Especially when we can’t begin to contemplate the return if it indeed DOES happen.

    That is by no means a ringing endorsement for one Mr ST.

  13. hunter1909 says:

    Hate to say this but I imagine Hemsky’s agent whispering 5 years at 6 million per, and that’s not going to fly at Northlands.

  14. nelson88 says:

    Always liked Hemsky and he is not soft; moody yes, but not soft. Great talent and agree with MattWatt that the whole process has been very strange but that seems to be par for the course for everything Mr. Tamberine man touches (see Ryan Smyth “trade” that got far more complicated then it had to be)

    By the comments today it is pretty clear he wants a long term deal and some certainty he will play in the top 6. Personally I think that risk is better borne by others. If they can get him signed for 3 years or less at decent money – fantastic but if not so be it and all the best to him elsewhere. Omark is likely not as good in the short term but much less money and probably more durable.

  15. Gret99zky says:

    I say leave Omark in OKC to get comfortable with winning and the ankle.

    Potter needs to rest up.

    I like the Sutton signing especially if it means a move away from Barker. Sutton can be moved or buried if need arises.

    Seriously, after what Hemsky has been through here in Edmonton (7+ years), if you were him wouldn’t you rather watch the rebuild from another city? I don’t blame him for wanting out of town.

    Maybe Katz and Lowe are saying to Tambi, “If you sit on your hands it’s a 2 year deal, but if you make some effective moves at the deadline we will talk some more.”

    *crickets*

  16. jonrmcleod says:

    I saw a couple of pro-Hemsky tweets by the Oilers today. What do you think about that? Think it’s less than genuine? Does anyone know who is in charge of the Oilers twitter account?

  17. sliderule says:

    I know there is a lot of love for Hemsky on this board but 6 years at 6m or even 4 years.

    With his injury history that could end up being the cap killer that would dwarf poor old Horcs contract..

    It’s time to move on.

  18. godot10 says:

    Ribs,

    Compensating for ankle recovering from high-ankle sprain leads to a groin injury. Not surprising at all if you’ve ever had a high ankle sprain.

  19. OilLeak says:

    I just had a scary thought, what if the Sutton Contract is Tambellni’s effort to postpone acquiring an actual top 4 defenseman? No, I won’t think of that, or else I might have to pull out the little remaining hair that I have.

  20. neojanus says:

    My question to anyone out there is this:

    What is Hemsky actually worth right now?

    Furthermore, what would other teams be willing to pay for him?

    If he can stay healthy, he’s worth every penny of a long-term 5+ deal. The problem is whether he can stay healthy… my bet is yes.

    The Oilers have two options here: take a chance on a long term deal = very risky OR get what you can in a trade (which will be a vast underpayment due to a poor season) = very risky.

    This is almost a no win situation. No one will part with much based on the fact that Hemsky can walk at the end of the year.

    The Oilers can’t sign long term because they have other offensive contracts to think about down the road.

    I feel bad for Tambellini here… every move is the wrong one.

    If Hemsky stays healthy, he is still a point per game player. That’s a hell of a guy for three or four young superstars to play with… but a signing will come at the expense of other young players.

    Make the trade even if it comes under value in order to create a more balanced dynamic in the Oiler team down the road. Between Hall, Eberle, RNH, and Gagner… Hemsky’s points are covered.

    The Oilers HAVE to get that defense working at a competitive level. Hemsky is one of a few possible bullets… even if he isn’t going to get the return he would have last year.

    Tambellini will make this trade, 98% certainty.

  21. jfry says:

    do we get to ride the nash bump and get more for hemsky as teams “nuke up” or does this mess everything up for maximum value for hemm’r?

    also, in the heat/barons game, omark looked like he was on a different level from everyone. amazing skill and confidence. zero defense and broke the zone hard and early, often, rarely resulting in offensive chances — potential argument that it stretched the D though.

  22. jfry says:

    also, omark’s goal was on the fly, faking pass, and then roofed a wrister from the slot. just inside post and cross bar. was a very “nhl” shot compared to many out there that night.

  23. DSF says:

    jfry:
    do we get to ride the nash bump and get more for hemsky as teams “nuke up” or does this mess everything up for maximum value for hemm’r?

    also, in the heat/barons game, omark looked like he was on a different level from everyone.amazing skill and confidence.zero defense and broke the zone hard and early, often, rarely resulting in offensive chances — potential argument that it stretched the D though.

    The only bump Hemsky gets with Nash on the market is down.

    Nash is now target #1.

    The thing with Nash is, because of his contract, it will take a GM with big balls to make that deal.

    Cue Brian Burke.

  24. DSF says:

    neojanus,

    Don’t feel sorry for Tambellini.

    If he was out front of this situation, he would have decided whether Hemsky fits long term a year ago.

    Hemsky’s trade value has been declining incrementally ever since.

    That it comes down to a no-win situation for the Oilers tells you everything you need to know about the Lowe regime.

  25. speeds says:

    Lowetide,

    I’m not sure what the Oilers might do with Omark, to finish the year, but it may be affected by his waiver situation if they want him to play in the AHL playoffs this spring.

  26. Downright Fierce says:

    Word out of OKC (on LT’s show, I believe) was that Omark had become a gym rat while injured. If anyone’s champing to get off the blocks, it’s Linus. While I can’t see him being called up until 83′s gone, The Org has been telegraphing the Hemmer trade since December & an Omark call-up before the 27th would be their final shot across that prow IMHO.

    Interesting to hear about Potter sitting out today. Have to think Barker rotates in, unless they think Peckham is worth “showcasing” pre-deadline. That, or they rush 44 back off a day’s rest (aka Oilers Injury Prevention™).

    As for #3, I agree totally. The shift in Toonces’ language is so dramatic, it’s almost comical. Almost comical, because it’s absolutely depressing to see a good soldier being submarined by The Org & its MSM dogs yet again. Praying that they surprise me, but I’ve felt resigned to losing Hemsky & gaining another few years of Toonces for a month now. Oilers news doesn’t do much these days besides growing the pit in my stomach.

  27. Gret99zky says:

    TSN reporting Hemsky wants a long term deal. Which I assume means 4-6 years. Think he will want more than his current $5M per year?

    Absolutely.

  28. Kert says:

    If you can sign him for less than Havlat’s $5m per year, give him a decent term. If he wants more, he’s going to have to sacrifice length. He will get his money somewhere.

  29. PunjabiOil says:

    Offer 16M/4 years – cap will be going up anyways, and that’s a reasonable price.

    Not an untradeable contract by any means later down the road, and you might be able to get an NHL player later on should you decide to trade him. Right now? All you will get is prospects or picks.

    If you trade him, offer the moon to Huselius or Whitney on July 1 on a 1 year deal.

  30. VOR says:

    Give Hemsky a Ville Leino style deal, ie. seriously front end load it. $4.5 M cap hit. Just don’t give him a no trade clause and don’t go past 35.

  31. Traktor says:

    PunjabiOil:
    Offer 16M/4 years – cap will be going up anyways, and that’s a reasonable price.

    How is that reasonable? Why would Hemsky sign such a poor offer?

    Your suggested offer is equivalent to the trade Hemsky crowd suggesting we move 83 for Shea Weber.

  32. PunjabiOil says:

    It assumes Hemsky is willing to take a haircut on the salary as long as he gets the term. The Oilers end up giving more years than they want to, and Hemsky leaves dollars on the table.

    It’s in same vein guys like Tanguay and Doan left money on the table in their last contracts.

    I do believe Hemsky truly wants to be here, and would take somewhat of a discount – as long as the price/term are fair. It also appears Tambellini, thus far, does not want to do a contract longer than 2 years – which is disappointing. Another suspect prospect and 1st round pick are the likely result.

    Lets hope they meet somewhere in the middle, thought I have my doubts.

  33. spoiler says:

    Principe and Sportsnet just ran a piece on Hemsky. Take it for what you will:

    –talks started last summer and the two parties have had “good conversations”.

    –Hemsky positive, Wants to stay but the deal has to make sense from his point of view too. Doesn’t want to a 3rd line role, wants to know where he fits

    –Talks expected to continue,. Tambo says he’s a good player and we’ll see.

  34. PunjabiOil says:

    Matheson’s column also mentioned how Hemsky was ”optimistic” a deal would get done.

    Brownlee has a different view on ON.

    I just can’t have any expectations. The Oilers have disappointed me on that regard every time since game 6 in 2006.

    God, I wish they had won Game 7. Would make all this suffering a bit more bearable.

    It’s quite sad, actually.

  35. mc79hockey says:

    4/16 for Hemsky is absurd. If I was him, I’d sign a 1/4 contract before I signed that and I wouldn’t sign a 1/4 contract until the market showed me there was nothing else there.

  36. "Steve Smith" says:

    Don’t listen to them, PJO – it’s just the same old Traktor-MC79 block that’s always pushing this stuff.

  37. commonfan14 says:

    Hemsky needs to pot 22 more points this year in order to push his average production to 50 points per season for the 6-year deal he’s finishing up. I think it’s safe to call that a massive disappointment.

    It’s alarming to me that there might be GMs out there who not only think he’ll be healthier and more productive in his 29-34 year old seasons than he was for his 23-28 year old seasons, but will give him a hefty raise based on that belief as though it’s a given.

    There’s nothing rational about a decision like that, so it would have to be born of desperation. What team is going to be that desperate this summer and won’t have a better option for that money? Whose offer will they be thinking they need to top?

    Is Columbus going to think Hemmer is their only chance at a top-6 talent this summer, so they’re willing to ignore his lack of production over the last 6 seasons and throw $6 million for 6 years at him in order to beat a $5 million for 6 years offer they think is coming from Nashville?

  38. cabbiesmacker says:

    Traktor:
    So do I.

    6 years 36M.

    I’d be willing to wager an ice cold refreshment of your choice that he won’t get that, and that you’re off the mark by at least $6Mill over the total length of the conract.

    I’ll predict no more than $5.5 per at 4-5 years.

    You can name the where and when.

  39. Gerta Rauss says:

    Renney on the ice time allocated to the kids.

    And he plans to run Dubnyk for most games til the end of the season.

  40. bendelson says:

    cabbiesmacker,

    6 year 36M is ridiculous.

    Any GM willing to pay that to Ales in the summer will be fired long before that contract is bought out.

    I sincerely hope he is traded – not b/c he isn’t a decent hockey player but b/c he isn’t going to be worth the money he is going to get. Not even close.

    Its incumbent on Tambo to get a good trade done. If that isn’t possible, its all on Tambo, Lowe and that mess of an organization called the Oilers. The truth is he should have been traded long ago.

  41. cabbiesmacker says:

    bendelson:
    cabbiesmacker,

    6 year 36M is ridiculous.

    Any GM willing to pay that to Ales in the summer will be fired long before that contract is bought out.

    I sincerelyhope he is traded – not b/c he isn’t a decent hockey player but b/c he isn’t going to be worth the money he is going to get.Not even close.

    Its incumbent on Tambo to get a good trade done.If that isn’t possible, its all on Tambo, Lowe and that mess of an organization called the Oilers.The truth is he should have been traded long ago.

    I think $36M is a huge reach too but maybe Doug McLean is still an advisor somewhere.

    ST’s in a tough spot here but we don’t have a clue what Hemsky’s asking for really. I’d do my proposed 4-5 yrs at 5.5 but that’d be about it I think.

    Hemsky’s holding most of the cards right now. Minimal return at the deadline and knowledge of what he might do when healthy.

  42. Gret99zky says:

    I’m okay with the Sail on Pardubice Prince with all its reflections and longing.

    When I was 17….it was a very good year….

  43. hunter1909 says:

    The important thing is to teach Hemsky a lesson he will never forget.

    oiler fans love trade deadline day – because every so often a top player leaves town, and everyone gets to drool over the new prospects and draft choices.

    Combine that with the draft lottery…

    Face it. oiler fans have been spoiled rotten.

  44. hunter1909 says:

    LOL at Flames fans re: getting Rick Nash.

    Flames couldn’t be in a more perfect position this morning 9th place. Remember when oilers were a bubble team?

    Flames haven’t got a chance of getting Nash, who already plays for a loser.

    oilers have had an themselves another excellent week – solidifying their second(29th)
    place position ha ha.

  45. nelson88 says:

    Havlat has been brought up a couple of times and he would seem to be a pretty good comparison.

    UFA at similar ages, similar stats (Havlat’s maybe slightly better due to goal scoring), shoulder surgeries and his incumbent team (Blackhawks) not wanting to sign him long-term. Minnesota is desperate to add offense after Gaborik bolts and pays Havlat $5M x 6 years. His stats in the first two years of the deal are ok (approx. .75pts/gm) and this year he has mostly been injured. If he lights up the playoffs for SJ the deal has a chance to look good but frankly the return to date on $5M/year is not stellar

    Of course we could always lock Hemmer up for $5M x 6 and then trade him for Danny Heatley….

  46. gcw_rocks says:

    Some idiot GM will give Hemsky 5 for 5 and a NMC and pray he is Gaborik the second, and I hope its not our idiot GM. I would gamble on 5 for 2, with a limited no trade, but if he wouldn’t take that, then I would trade him.

    LT: Not sure how you bring Omark up now. Unless Renny is willing to try the MPS – Lander – Omark combination for a few games, he will end up playing with srubs, not put up any points, and be in Renny’s dog house before Hemsky is traded.

    If hemsky goes, he needs to slide right into Hemsky’s spot.

  47. DeadmanWaking says:

    Some of the contracts mentioned here would make sense if the dollars are front loaded and the buy-out term were derated by percentage of games played. Otherwise a longer term requires a GM already on the short leash willing to roll for upside. From the ownership perspective, this isn’t such a bad thing. There’s a limit to how often you can fire your GM without turning the organization into a circus. The cleansing firehose of management-past is a gory business to begin with, no one is counting one more spilled organ.

    From the finance perspective, Hemmer is a high-yield junk bond. His repaired shoulders are distressed assets. You either make a killing locking yourself into a long position, or you fall on your sword. It’s an easy decision, really. The GM images himself with his neck stretched across the guillotine blocks looking upward at the sharp blade. If that doesn’t change his perspective–if it’s just one more lethal sharp object–then why not? What would Madoff do? This is more about the type of buyer than anything else.

    I’m eating Yellowfin on my rice this morning. This tends to have a lower methyl-Hg level akin to Skipjack, but sometimes has high levels closer to Albacore. Recent research suggests that MeHg is mainly a problem if your intake outpaces your selenium intake (MeHg makes Selenium abandon its wifely and motherly duties like Kidman in Eyes Wide Shut; she sticks around only if the MeHg charmer has already captured a different fallen woman). Most tuna contains a fair amount of selenium, unlike pilot whale, which has gobs of MeHg and almost no selenium. The original studies lumped many different fish sources together and took the average. This is fair enough if you don’t know which fish is the one killing you: you have to paint with a wide brush.

    High Mercury Levels Are Found in Tuna Sushi

    Hemmer is the Bluefin king. At his best, fit for royalty. That new selenium theory is making me smack my lips. I like the succulent delicacy so much, I bought the store. Which reminds me, human cremation is a significant environmental source.

  48. MUTT14 says:

    Hemsky would be generous to sign for 4 X 5MM and we’d be lucky to have him. Minus the kids, he is far and away our best player and we can’t continually add by subtraction and get any better.

    Everyone is gloating on the return we got for Penner, it looks great but there are no guarantees that Teubert or Klefbom are going to be long term NHL’ers let alone top 4 dmen.

    I’m not a Penner fan and think the return we got for him was solid but play the what if game with me for a minute. What if we didn’t trade penner? What if Penner had 21 goals so far this year (like he did at the deadline last year) with the oilers? What if those 21 goals equaled 5 more w’s? We’d be having a totally different discussion. (I realize we can play this game ad nauseum…)

    Hemsky is twice the player Penner is and we’re talking about getting less return. I’d love to see them keep him but I don’t think they will.

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