Do You Like Apples?

As fans, how we feel about events like the trade deadline have a lot to do with the man in charge. When Slats was GM, Barry Fraser was ordering Cuba Libre’s at the Cancun Palace so the draft was a waste of time, but the trade market was a golden opportunity to add useful parts. As such, we followed the trade deadline, July and training camp closely because that’s when good things might happen.

Steve Tambellini has been running the ship for the 2009, 2010 and 2011 deadlines, and he’ll be the point man again this time. As we saw during the Oil Change series, Kevin Lowe is still in the room and the overall thrust of the organization is similar to Lowe’s time as GM.

In a thread below, DBO posted the following:

  • I guess I wonder when we get to the point where we will actually do the 3 for 1 deal. We are stockpiling assets, and if we wait for them all to be ready we will wait 3 more years. What’s scary is that at the Season ticket holders meeting yesterday Tambellini said, when asked about D, that we have a bunch of great ones coming in 2 or 3 years so we just have to bridge that gap. What frightens me is he seems to think Sutton and Barker are the ones to fill that gap.

My thanks for DBO for passing it along, and to Schitzo for doing it a day earlier (I read everything but the brain is taking on water these days). When we talk about these things, I think it’s important to be fair and say ST isn’t going to tip his hand to the fanbase and say “we’re gearing up to draft a center 3rd overall and then trade Gagner plus for our guy this summer” so the entire item has to be placed in context.

Having said that, I don’t think the Oilers have very many “great ones” that close to making a difference in the NHL:

  • Martin Marincin is a pencil and is developing in junior. He’ll turn pro and should see at least a couple of AHL seasons before coming up to the NHL. If you add 200 games for learning on the job, that puts Marincin’s ETA for making a difference at Christmas 2017.
  • David Musil is a guy I believe may come quickly, even as soon as this coming fall. However, that depends on his foot speed and counting on him is folly. Should he make the club fall 2012, that means 200 games in the show puts his ETA at Christmas 2014.
  • Oscar Klefbom is a guy who might be able to jump the other blue, but one doubts his timeline will be shorter than Christmas 2014.
  • Ryan Murray–who I believe is a target for the Oilers (with Griffin Reinhart 2nd in line) is a stud prospect and may be able to make a difference inside the 2014 Christmas window.

 TAMBELLINI’S TRADE DEADLINE RECORD IS NOT GOOD!

 Seriously.

  • Deadline 2009: Oilers got Patrick O’Sullivan and Ales Kotalik for Erik Cole.
  • Deadline 2010: Oilers plucked a 2nd rd pick (Curtis Hamilton) from NAS for D Denis Grebeshkov; claimed Ryan Jones off waivers; dealt Lubo for Ryan Whitney; sent Steve Staios to Calgary for Aaron Johnson and a 3rd rd pick (Travis Ewanyk).
  • Deadline 2011: Sent Dustin Penner away for a 1st (Oscar Klefbom) and Colten Teubert.

Now, I ask you to take into account that the Oilers had decided to rebuild (as of 2010 deadline) again, thus sending away talent in their prime for picks and prospects was the goal each time.We can’t pick Tambellini apart for doing what the organization has decided is the correct path.

  • The Cole trade didn’t work out and adding Kotalik was a bad idea (they flipped a 2nd) from 2009 deadline. Saving that pick might mean a roster player by now. The Oilers were looking to add for a run, but the additions weren’t close to good enough. Failing grade for 2009.
  • The trade that killed this team was Lubo for Whitney in 2010. Whitney’s problems in terms of injury go way back (Christmas ’08–he missed 31 games with left foot surgery) and the club either chose to disregard those issues or felt comfortable the problems were over. Either way, it was a major, ghastly error. The devil is in the details, and the Oilers appear to be further exacerbating this problem by not recognizing that Whitney could be done as a top of the order defender.
  • The other 2010 moves were fine, Hamilton is a nice prospect having a tough time adjusting to pro and Jones has worked out very well. Ewanyk doesn’t like much and Staios is still in the league, so that trade doesn’t look as good as it did at the time.
  • 2011 I was fine with at the time and remain so. I didn’t like the club trading Penner, but felt (and feel) the value was there.

The goal this deadline will be different: more draft bullets are fine, but only with an eye to exchanging them for something useful in 12-13 at the NHL level. Trading Ales Hemsky puts the club in an enormous hole for next season and the Oilers are not going to acquire a healthy NHL defenseman from any of the contenders at the deadline.

The Oilers management group won’t face the backlash they saw when Smyth was dealt, but I think it’s obvious this trade will be a net loss for Edmonton. Management cannot say “we’re rebuilding and this is part of the plan” because any 1st rd pick taken 20-30 this summer will take years to help the team. Steve Tambellini can’t just throw Groundhog Day on every trade deadline and he can’t have another season in last place and remain the GM.

Steve Tambellini is Sonny on the Causeway this morning, and is extremely likely to look back on the Hemsky trade in the same way Jim Devellano remembers one of his worst:

Bobby Clarke: I made my second trade with Jimmy Devellano. I traded Darryl Sittler for Murray Craven and Joey Paterson. Jimmy is funny. After that trade he told me ‘you picked my fucking eyes out, Clarke.’

Steve Tambellini is extremely likely to be in the market for an eye patch this time next week.

written by

The author didn‘t add any Information to his profile yet.

153 Responses to "Do You Like Apples?"

  1. DBO says:

    Man it is getting glum in here. Everywhere. If you aren’t picking a forward and are going D in the draft, then you have to keep hemsky. Unless he gets you a Dougie Hamilton or an NHL ready dman and you draft a forward to take Hemsky’s spot. What scares me is that they seem to believe that whoever they pick will replace Hemmer, and as much as we all love Eberle, he hasn’t replaced him and has only succeeded when Hemmer takes on the toughs allowing him to eat up the 2nds. If they are serious about playoffs the next 2 years, this is the top 6 that will have to do it, otherwise we are 4 years away since it’ll take that long to get someone to impact us the way Hemmer does.

    Hall-Gagner-Eberle
    MPS-RNH-Hemsky

    I can live with that top 6. 2 real scoring lines and scoring depth. Some size in MPS and Hall (not overly physical, but size), crazy skill in Hemmer, Eberle and RNH, and Gagner is no slouch or old man at 22 (who has shown some grit and better two way play of late). Are we really out to lunch, or has the Org been blinded by the free pass of the “rebuild” and shiny object that is “potential”. One day we need real players. It’s gonna kill me when we open next season with the same questions:

    - Need real NHL dmen
    - Need some depth up front who can play the toughs (you know, guys like Hemsky) and balance out the lineup.
    - need an answer at goal.

    4 years in a row. Is that possible?

  2. Lois Lowe says:

    *sigh*

    It’s like being a Cleveland Browns fan.

  3. Lowetide says:

    DBO: Probable. Oilers are down a legit quality D because Whitney God love him is fighting for his career and now with Hemsky gone (and nothing immediate coming back) your RW depth chart is going to be Eberle-Jones-Paajarvi-Petrell.

  4. Boreal says:

    I see this deadline and the Hemsky situation as a watershed moment for ST. This is a difficult situation for him (as it would be for any GM) considering all the variables with Hemsky. I think how ST handles this will determine how much longer he will be GM. An asset like Hemsky doesn’t come along that often, and you better not screw it up.

  5. spoiler says:

    Oscar Klefbom is a guy who might be able to jump the other blue, but one doubts his timeline will be shorter than Musil’s.

    I’m sure you must mean this the other way around. We have no indication from any person or any arrow that Musil is tracking ahead of Klefbom.

  6. Lowetide says:

    spOILer: Quite right, I should have said “one doubts his timeline will be shorter than I’ve suggested possible with Musil.”

  7. spoiler says:

    I would definitely buy that, LT. I can’t see it either.

  8. hags9k says:

    Not sure how so many people are still projecting MPS as a 2L winger. He may get there, but at some point we might have to admit the high water mark could be 3L. Perhaps a Maltby or Paulsson type. I think it’s dangerous if the org is banking on top 6 boxcars from him in the future. Hope for the best plan for the worst.

  9. spoiler says:

    God I hope Danis gets a start.

  10. hags9k says:

    spoiler,

    Absolutely.

  11. Lowetide says:

    I expect he’ll get a couple. Why not? Gives the kid who is shooting lights out in Stockton a chance in the AHL too.

  12. rich says:

    Great post and as Boreal states, the trade deadline is a watershed moment for 3.2. That said, it won’t be until December 2012 that there is any “restructuring” because this management is going to get a pass until at least then.

    A 29th place finish after two straight 30th place finishes will be tolerated because of the rebuild and the patience the fanbase continues to show. We’ll probably finish w/close to 70 points and management will argue that had it not been for injury, the results will be better. And this will miss the point of the lack of balance put into this rebuild.

    But going into next season with a blue that continues to be a patch work of some developing players, suspects and injured warriors and goaltending that is not capable of masking over the issues for a long stretch, there will be no denying that this rebuild is not working. At that point, I suspect there will be a change.

    Whether it starts with another coach being turfed for not being able to produce with these glaring holes or with someone more senior going remains to be seen.

    Before then though, I would expect that an assistant changes (have read on the Al Gore that Krueger may not be back next season – of his own volition). But the water droplets are starting to fall a little quicker/louder and I expect next season it will be something that can no longer be ignored.

  13. oilersfan says:

    tambellini is a strange bird. he says he wants the oilers to make the playoffs next year then he makes it known he would trade one of his 5 best players for futures. as we all know futures are worth about .25 of a proven top 6 player so we all want the real guy.

    i called in last night to tencer’s show asking why it is such a foregone conclusion the oilers should not re-sign hemsky for 5 years. they asked me why the oilers should. i replied the cap has gone up 8.5% on average since the lockout and at even half that rate hemslky’s entire salary will be taken care of by the time rnh is into his second contract. they however did not give a good reason other than his body language is bad, he is having a subpar season and that he is injury prone. i pointed out that maybe his body language is bad because his confidence is low, which can change, and that now that his shoulder has been rebuilt it is less likely to get injured than it was before the initial injury. they said it was too risky to sign hemsky for 5 years. i pointed out that it is pretty damn risky to have no second line winger to replace him and if they want to guarantee they miss the playoffs again next year they should trade him but if they want a hope they should sign him.

  14. OilClog says:

    Keeping Hemsky is what 29 other GM’s would do if he held on to him for this long, too bad we have a GM that is just a puppet. It only makes sense to Oilers management, and about 5 short minded fans to trade Hemsky away. Anything we get back for him will never make up for what we lose when Hemsky is gone. I remember in the mid 90′s having day dreams of the day when I get to enjoy the Oilers running over the league once the salary cap issues were solved.. boy was I a fool.

    Maybe Tambellini is planning on making a run at Grabovski in the off season.. I highly doubt such a move will take place but I got to believe that they have some sort of plan to replace Hemsky’s offense that doesn’t involve the draft.

    Jason Garrison.. This is the defenceman that I want every set of Oiler Management eyes on, he’s in florida, doesn’t get much attention, plays solid, and would salary cap wise.. make much more sense if we’re scared for our dollars then the big fish that will be out there. I’d offer him somewhere in the neighbourhood of 5yr/18m. Where as a Suter you’ll be looking at 5yrs/30-36mil.. ouch.

    While looking for a goaltender until the Bunz arrives.. if he ever arrives.. I’d be looking for a goalie that responds well to lots of shots against. I don’t know if there are any Cujo’s out there to be had, but that’s what this team needs. But again I have a horrible feelings.. there’s a certain goalie on a one year contract at the moment.. turning 36 soon, posted good numbers on bad teams in the past.. Vokoun. From what I’ve seen from ST is that this guy is his perfect match.. we’re about to get fleeced again. Not saying he’ll be as bad as the lord in savior Khabi.. but he’s well past his due date.

  15. stevezie says:

    Creating narratives that show life going the way I want it to makes me happy. With that in mind, what if the reason management never showd any interest in signing Hemsky is because they were always planning on trading him for the defenceman they need. That was always their plan, so rather than negotiate they just sat back and waited for his play to get back to where it was so they could swing him. Only… Hemsky has still yet to regain that old swagger, and while recent improvements suggest he is still a man worth signing, he is not widely considered an immediate impact player the deadline, and no one is paying what the Oil want.
    Being not quite as stupid as they look, they have realised what LT has realised, that unless Hemsky brings back immediate help, the team is screwed for next season and so, likely, are their careers at the head of the table. They realise that Hemsky is worth nothing walking away, and might as well be worth nothing in a trade(for all the good it will do them), so their only option, whether they want to or not, is to do whatever it takes to get him signed. Hemsky’s middling play this season might have lowered his trade value to the point where he has to be re-signed. Ironically, it might even get his demands met, because trading him is no longer a viable option.

    Could be wrong. Nashville has plenty of young D it’s tough not to love and needs scoring, but honestly, and I say this as a Hemsky fan, given his production this year how anxious would you be to rent this guy?

  16. Woodguy says:

    For years Oiler fans have lamented that good free agents don’t want to sign here.

    The player who is 27th in points per game since the lock out, and who is also 15th in assists per game since the lockout wants to sign with the Oilers, and both the fan base and management have no clue how lucky they are and are intent on pissing away this good fortune.

    Look at the players around Hemsky on both lists.

    Wouldn’t both fans and management get really excited that if those players said they wanted to play here?

    Once Tambellini makes this trade, he move to being Oiler General Manager version 4.0

    I think it will be his last version.

    Unless they add a top pairing D (or two due to Whitney’s ankle being done) AND shore up the goaltending, AND solidfy secondary scoring, they may be a lottery team again next year. If so, I think he’ll be fired.

    He may suprise us and fill all the holes on the roster, but we’ve watched Lowe manage for 12 years and Tambellini manage for 4 years, so I’m not holding my breath that they suddenly wake up and make moves that other competent managers would.

  17. OilClog says:

    oilersfan,

    The MSM guys are clowns for the most part, how can you justify your opinions when you just decide to forget what the guy has done over the last decade, what he’s been doing more and more recently. I can accept that there is a slight fear in his shoulders.. but if this is the view on the situation.. I’m already worried for Hall, Ebs, and Nuge. One or Two more injuries to these players in the next season and they will be saying the same thing about them, we will run them out of town, and continue to troll away under the bridges of Calgary.. screaming “Do you remember us! we once had talent, then we took an arrow to the knee, and that was enough for us to stake claim under this bridge, boy the bow river sure is shallow”

  18. edwards_daddy says:

    Tambo should be targeting Dmen in the 20-22 yo range being seasoned in the AHL in any Hemsky trade. Although I would love it if he pulled off something left-field to get us a top D.
    Something like Hemmer& 2nd overall for Ekman-Larrson and Nick Ross.
    Won’t happen though.

  19. Woodguy says:

    Lois Lowe:
    *sigh*

    It’s like being a Cleveland Browns fan.

    Ugh.

    You’re right.

    I hope its the Detroit Lions model and ownership finally wakes up and fires the GM.

  20. spoiler says:

    IIt seems to me that the Oil have stiffed the veteran AHL call-up before. No? Personally, I wouldn’t play NK in another game this spring. Let’s see what the other goalies in the organization can do.

    I have to think LA is the best bet for Nash… But really he makes no sense anywhere.

    I cannot see any possible deal that improves us now that doesn’t involve a 1st round pick. Which means free agency. Which means we’re doomed.

  21. OilClog says:

    edwards_daddy,

    Tambellini should be targeting a contract for Hemsky, if we’re going to be trading for young almost there defencemen, then we should be trading with teams that have those and need young almost there forwards.. Yet, we don’t need young almost there defence, we need already there defence. We need a GM that will actually do something that is impactful in a positive way. Before we ever get a GM like that though, the whole Lowe regime needs to be cleared out. Or our next GM is going to be even more folly.

  22. OilClog says:

    Woodguy,

    You talk crazy man, from all reports Hemsky’s best days are behind him. He’s over the hill, cripple, doesn’t practice, plays with a childs hockey stick, cries when he’s subjected to play with top scorer Shawn Hero Horcoff, puck hog, asks to be treated fairly in contract negotiations.. this guy is a bum. Sure maybe he’s up on those lists, but who cares about last year. What have you done lately Ales!?! He should be lucky we haven’t sent him down to the Barons and gotten the Souray treatment.. friggin bum.

  23. Spydyr says:

    OilClog,

    So your saying keep him now.Then get nothing for him in the summer when he signs somewhere else?

    Either he signs before the deadline or he has to go.

    Myself I would rather he signed but that is up to Hemsky and the team.

  24. Ducey says:

    •Deadline 2011: Sent Dustin Penner away for a 1st (Oscar Klefbom) and Colten Teubert.

    Didn’t we get a third rounder too?

  25. Lowetide says:

    It was conditional, don’t know where it went.

  26. OilClog says:

    I’ve never said let him walk.. But yes I do say keep him now, sign him to a contract. Unless we sign him for 8mil a season his contract will be tradedable down the road. His trade value at the moment is worth nothing, if he did walk away in the summer.. what would we really lose? We will get as much for him now as we will a week before free agency when we trade his rights.. a 5th or 6th round draft pick. Unless we sign Hemsky, we lose this situation hands down no matter what, we will never get real value for the player he is. Oilers will get less return for him then Penner, which is why we sign him. Anyone with a pulse knows Hemsky is worth 2-3times the return Penner got us, so if we’re not going to be recieving that, the only possible option would be to Sign him and see how it plays out. Whats the worse that will happen.. we end up 29th or 30th???

  27. Lowetide says:

    It was based on LAK not winning the Stanley, so EDM gets LAK’s 3rd rder this summer. I also didn’t mention a pick in the Cole deal (5th, I think) because it wasn’t important to the post.

  28. Woodguy says:

    I’m against Hemsky, but if they are trading him, send him to LA with Tuebert for Voynov.

    Gilbert, Petry, and Voynov on the right side would be pretty good.

    Voynov wouldn’t be 3rd pairing forever either, he’s a top 4 guy in a few years.

  29. Lowetide says:

    Voynov would be nice, although as you say keeping Hemsky is the better plan.

  30. Ryan says:

    Woodguy,

    The more I think about the Hemsky situation, the more obvious the answer is. Sign him. Period end of story. 5 years? No problem. Doesn’t fit in because there’s too many smurfs on the roster, no problem.

    The Oilers are tentative to sign him to 5 years because of his injury history / glass shoulders. Fine. If the Oilers are in playoff contention (whenever that may be) AND he gets injured, then they have extra cap flexibility at the deadline in future seasons. It’s not like he’s over 35… cough.

    Hm, let’s give 4 years to an over 35 tender with an injury history coming off his only good year since the lockout, but 5 years for a 28 y/o Hemsky, no way that’s just not going to happen.

    The alternative is to trade him at 10 cents on the dollar for magic beans. I don’t even know if they can get a late 1st for him this season all things considered.

  31. Spydyr says:

    OilClog,

    I agree with you 100% sign him.

    Now what if Hemsky does not want to sign here either for dollars or length.Maybe he just does not want to be here anymore……you just can’t say sign him.Unfortunately it is not the easy.

  32. Woodguy says:

    Woodguy:
    I’m against Hemsky, but if they are trading him, send him to LA with Tuebert for Voynov.

    Gilbert, Petry, and Voynov on the right side would be pretty good.

    Voynov wouldn’t be 3rd pairing forever either, he’s a top 4 guy in a few years.

    Oops, meant “against trading Hemsky”

  33. SecondHandSemen says:

    If we trade Hemsky, it should be for a blue chip young defender as the centre piece. If we can’t get that back, then forget it. Keep him.

    We should be done trading veterans for picks and stockpiling assets (if we’re sticking to the plan of making the playoffs next year) We have our franchise forwards, now we need franchise defencemen and possibly a goalie.

    Price came into the league at 20-21 – thoughts on giving Bunz the same route? Which would be next year.

  34. Captain Obvious says:

    Voynov doesn’t need to be improved to be a top four defenseman. He is a top four defenseman today. In an alternate universe in which we can trade Hemsky for Voynov I’d be a very happy person (and I love Hemsky).

    The problem is that we aren’t going to be Voynov. We’re going to get Blum and there is a world of difference between the two players.

  35. CrazyCoach says:

    LT I Have to disagree on your timeline for Marincin from what I’ve seen. He was the best player the Cougars had the last two season, Brett Connelly included. He may have some size issues in terms of pure girth, but he is strong, both on his feet and in terms of sheer physical strength. His upside over Musil, IMO, is that he is a far better skater, which in the new NHL, is the main skill to have. Great skating skills help compensate for a perceived lack of strength.

  36. Traktor says:

    Woodguy:

    The player wants to sign with the Oilers, and both the fan base and management have no clue how lucky they are and are intent on pissing away this good fortune.

    Shawn Horcoff wanted to sign with Edmonton as well. Just because a player is open to signing with a club doesn’t mean that it is wise to sign him or that a reasonable deal can be made. Hemsky said recently that the deal has to make sense for him and it is going to depend on “term and stuff” but you keep leaving that out of your posts.

    I don’t see the point in omitting Hemsky’s actual production over the last 3 years – under 40 per season. I know you like Hemsky but hiding half the story to prop up your argument just shows your bias instead of showing Hemsky in a positive light.

    Some of you guys need to find a GF or take your wife on a vacation. Some are so hellbent arguing the process that they cannot enjoy the ride.

    Can we all agree that none of us know as much as we think we do? Its possible that Hemsky scores 90 points on Detroit next year and its also possible that he turns into Penner 2.0. Perhaps Hemsky finds success elsewhere and the player or picks Edmonton get in return end up serving Edmonton as well or better than Hemsky. We don’t know.

  37. Woodguy says:

    Traktor,

    I don’t see the point in omitting Hemsky’s actual production over the last 3 years – under 40 per season. I know you like Hemsky but hiding half the story to prop up your argument just shows your bias instead of showing Hemsky in a positive light.

    I don’t hide anything.

    Hemsky’s actual production is included in all the numbers I present.

    I also acknowledge that his health is the big bogey, which I am for a 5years 25 MM contract (if he’d sign it) that is heavily front loaded in case it doesn’t work out and they have to move him.

    This is a team that has spent $7.7MM in the last 2 years for Souray and Nilsson to NOT play for the Oilers.

    If the Owner has committed that kind of money for that situation, then surely they can make a bet with lots of positive upside.

    If it doesn’t work out, trade him or bury him in the minors.

    You are right, no one knows how it will work out, but given that other NHL’ers who had the same injury returned to full health and production its a bet that you have to make if you are serious about actually being competitive and not constantly teaching players on the job.

  38. Woodguy says:

    . Some are so hellbent arguing the process that they cannot enjoy the ride.

    30th
    30th
    29th

    WHEEEEE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  39. Woodguy says:

    $25MM over 5 years.

    $7.5MM
    $7.5MM
    $5.0MM
    $3..25MM
    $1.75MM

  40. Spydyr says:

    Woodguy:
    $25MM over 5 years.

    $7.5MM
    $7.5MM
    $5.0MM
    $3..25MM
    $1.75MM

    Fair offer

    but

    Do you think Hemsky would be happy making 1.75 million at 32.That’s a prime year for most players.

  41. Traktor says:

    Woodguy:
    .

    You are right, no one knows how it will work out, but given that other NHL’ers who had the same injury returned to full health and production its a bet that you have to make if you are serious about actually being competitive and not constantly teaching players on the job.

    Over 100 Stanley Cups have been won and Hemsky’s name has never been on the cup. To suggest that signing Hemsky is the only way to be competitive is nonsense.

    Signing and retaining good players seems obvious but to win championships you need more than Point Guards.

  42. Lowetide says:

    Yeah! What was Hemsky doing in 1980? Getting off the ice first, that’s what he was doing!!!

  43. Captain Obvious says:

    Traktor,

    I know more than I think I do.

    Going back to Greg Zanon, I generated a ranking of players by adding up the ranking of players in Qcomprelcorsi, rel corsi, zone starts, p/60, SF/60, SA/60. The idea was to way difficulty of playing circumstances, relative results, and absolute results, more or less equally. It’s a blunt force instrument but it generates a list.

    Greg Zanon came out quite well. On a quick look at the stats he’s easily in the top half of the defensemen in the league. Generating a positive rel corsi, breaking even on shots, with a 43% zone starts isn’t so easy. He’s a Smid type more than he is a Sutton type. He’d be a reasonable target. Scott Hannan, on the other hand, looks like a bottom quartile guy.

  44. Woodguy says:

    Traktor: Over 100 Stanley Cups have been won and Hemsky’s name has never been on the cup. To suggest that signing Hemsky is the only way to be competitive is nonsense.

    Signing and retaining good players seems obvious but to win championships you need more than Point Guards.

    Marcel Dionne never won a cup. Doesn’t make him a lesser player.

    With Hall and Eberle, point guard is actually needed.

  45. Ducey says:

    Voynov doesn’t need to be improved to be a top four defenseman. He is a top four defenseman today.

    Gee, you better tell Lombardi, he just sent him to the AHL ten days ago.

  46. Woodguy says:

    Traktor: Over 100 Stanley Cups have been won and Hemsky’s name has never been on the cup. To suggest that signing Hemsky is the only way to be competitive is nonsense.

    Signing and retaining good players seems obvious but to win championships you need more than Point Guards.

    By definition you must agree with the following statement then;

    Ray Bourque was not a good player because he nver won a Cup in BOS and had to go to a team with lots of good players to win one.

    Counting cups simply counts how many very good and/or lucky (see:CAR) that you played for.

    Also,

    Overpaying him in the first two years takes care of year 5.

    If he want $X over Y years its in his best interest to get a front loaded contract as it gives him 4 ams 3 years to make investment/interest income on the early $.

  47. VOR says:

    In woodguy’s link above the table reveals other interesting things about Hemsky. Forget the assists per game because assists don’t count. Points don’t either. Only goals count. We all know Hemsky can’t score goals. He is only 37th in goals per game since the lockout.

    Oh wait I forgot, he is injured some much he is never effective, this entire per game thing has to go. Lets just look at real goals. He is only 39th in real goals. In the entire NHL since the lockout, guy obviously can’t play. He is only 11th in goals since the lockout by right wingers. Definitely only a third or fourth line guy on any other team. 5 in assist by a RW, 9th in points by a RW. Absolutely a useless twit, and that bad body language, crap the guy is a negative factor we will clearly have to throw in somebody just to get a 7th round pick back.

    Maybe we should try asking if Hemsky’s next 7 years look like the last 7 years who much is he worth?

  48. DSF says:

    Woodguy:
    Traktor,

    I don’t see the point in omitting Hemsky’s actual production over the last 3 years – under 40 per season. I know you like Hemsky but hiding half the story to prop up your argument just shows your bias instead of showing Hemsky in a positive light.

    I don’t hide anything.

    Hemsky’s actual production is included in all the numbers I present.

    I also acknowledge that his health is the big bogey, which I am for a5years 25 MM contract (if he’d sign it) that is heavily front loaded in case it doesn’t work out and they have to move him.

    This is a team that has spent $7.7MM in the last 2 years for Souray and Nilsson to NOT play for the Oilers.

    If the Owner has committed that kind of money for that situation, then surely they can make a bet with lots of positive upside.

    If it doesn’t work out, trade him or bury him in the minors.

    You are right, no one knows how it will work out, but given that other NHL’ers who had the same injury returned to full health and production its a bet that you have to make if you are serious about actually being competitive and not constantly teaching players on the job.

    Woodguy, I have three problems with your line of thinking.

    First, Hemsky’s next contract MUST account for his injury history and lack of production over the past three years. Ignoring it and assuming Hemsky will be a healthy, PPG player for the next 5 years is just silly. Want another Horcoff contract?

    Second, you and many other are forecasting doom if Hemsky isn’t re-signed because there will no one to shelter the kids. Do you honestly believe there is not another player in the NHL that can be acquired to fill that role? For less money?

    Third, you assume, if Hemsky is re-signed on a front loaded deal that he won’t have a NMC in his next contract. I know if I was his agent there sure as hell would be considering the stupid way Tambellini handled Souray. If it doesn’t work out…trade him? To who and for what.

    Since Hemsky can be counted on for about 50 games and 50 points per season, there are alternatives.

    it is not sign Hemsky or die.

  49. Ducey says:

    I don’t hide anything.

    Hemsky’s actual production is included in all the numbers I present.

    I also acknowledge that his health is the big bogey, which I am for a 5years 25 MM contract (if he’d sign it) that is heavily front loaded in case it doesn’t work out and they have to move him.

    This is a team that has spent $7.7MM in the last 2 years for Souray and Nilsson to NOT play for the Oilers.

    Woodguy,

    As I said at the end of the last thread, the problem isn’t Hemsky’s production per game (at least not until this year) its his production per season. He is 190th in points this season.

    A guy like Marc Savard has even better career ppg than Ales. He can’t even stay in a lineup, so who cares?

    The fact that Souray, Nilsson, Horcoff, Penner, and Moreau were all questionable contracts doesn’t strengthen your argument. In fact, it points to the fact that a GM better be damn sure that the player he is about to sign for 4 or 5 years is a good bet to live up to his contract. Hemsky doesn’t seem to be that good of a bet based on past history. And in the absence of not being able to talk to him to judge the glow in his eyes and look at his medical records, we don’t really know.

    I’d love to sign Hemsky to a two year deal, along the lines of what he is making now. Anything after that seems like a gamble likely to turn out like the guys I mention above.

    The Alternatives seem to be:

    A:You can trade Hemsky now for Blum and a first.

    Or B: you can gamble by signing him to a five year deal. I expect it will turn out something like Penners (a very good year, a few average years and a stinker) and then trade him for a third rounder in year 4.5.

    I would do A, and then replace him in free agency or by trade.

  50. VOR says:

    Re Voynov and Blum.

    33 games each.
    EVS Voynov 15.26, Blum 15.07

    Voynov is currently playing #5 minutes. He is getting a stunning break with both team mates #4 or better, and zone start 55 (and a finish of 45.4%). He does put up a very nice +/- and .86 points per 60 at EVS. Voynov has thrown 48 hits, blocked 29 shots given the puck away 22 times and taken it away 7.

    Blum is currently playing #6 minutes with either #7 or #8 teammates and starting with a 44.4% OZ handicap and finishing at 48% OZ. At EVS he scores .87 points per 60. His plus minus is bad. He has only thrown 17 hits but blocked 71 shots, he has given the puck away 17 times and taken it away 8.

    At the moment Voynov gets more power play time and is doing all right with it 2.87 pts/60. Hardly world beating but better than Blum who is getting just over a minute per game on the power play and doing zip all.

    I don’t think at this point you can say one is better than the other. If Voynov for Hemsky is good so is Blum for Hemsky.

  51. rich says:

    @ Ducey – I would suggest that another part of the reason that so many are divided on what to do re: Hemsky is that there are few who actually believe that our “astute management team” can actually go out and procure someone to replace Hemsky without seriously overpaying.

    In which it case, do you go w/the devil you know, or someone else.

    For me, at the very least you know what you have w/Hemsky. When healthy, he’s capable of playing the toughs and opening space for the kids – or if he draws the toughs it creates space for the kids. Yes, the downside risk is his health and the ability of management to get him on a good contract. But tell me now – does anyone really think Vish/3.2 are capable of going out and getting an adequate replacement?

  52. Hammers says:

    I would prefer signing Hemsky but some other thoughts could be giving Hemsky & Gagner for Jeff Carter . Perhaps we need to sweeten this with a Peckham or Tuebert . Carter would give us what we really need a 40 goal scorer with size down the middle or on the wing . Right now our 2 biggest forwards capable of being a top 6 are Hall & Magnus . For a good return you have to give something up . This then gives us Horc , Smyth & Jones on the 3rd line where they belong . Petry will be a top 4 D and a decent GM should improve on Barker in the summer We need to get away from our smurf look and Carter will do that with a contract we can handle . Management needs to think outside the box . There is nothing wrong with trading good players as long as you don’t get taken to the cleaners.

  53. Ducey says:

    rich,

    For sure,

    If Ken Holland was thinking about ditching Hemsky, there would likely be general agreement. Its a trust thing.

    If Holland was Oilers GM, I doubt he would sign Hemsky to Woodguy’s contract.

  54. Woodguy says:

    Ducey,

    As I said at the end of the last thread, the problem isn’t Hemsky’s production per game (at least not until this year) its his production per season. He is 190th in points this season.

    Matt Duchene is tied for 198th, would you throw him off your team?

    A guy like Marc Savard has even better career ppg than Ales. He can’t even stay in a lineup, so who cares?

    I don’t understand your point. Savard has concussion problems that will impact the rest of his career so Hemsky’s shoulder is no good?

    It makes more sense to look at players who have had the same surgery like Kessel and Lubo. They’ve done well.

    The fact that Souray, Nilsson, Horcoff, Penner, and Moreau were all questionable contracts doesn’t strengthen your argument. In fact, it points to the fact that a GM better be damn sure that the player he is about to sign for 4 or 5 years is a good bet to live up to his contract. Hemsky doesn’t seem to be that good of a bet based on past history. And in the absence of not being able to talk to him to judge the glow in his eyes and look at his medical records, we don’t really know.

    I named 2 of these players, do not add to what I say.

    I mentioned that they were paid to not play for the Oilers to show an example of the owner’s willingness to set $ on fire if it helps the team. If in three years Hemsky’s contract was incorrect, he can set fire to more money.

    I’d love to sign Hemsky to a two year deal, along the lines of what he is making now. Anything after that seems like a gamble likely to turn out like the guys I mention above.

    It sounds like he won’t sign something that short.


    The Alternatives seem to be:

    A:You can trade Hemsky now for Blum and a first.

    Or B: you can gamble by signing him to a five year deal. I expect it will turn out something like Penners (a very good year, a few average years and a stinker) and then trade him for a third rounder in year 4.5.

    I would do A, and then replace him in free agency or by trade.

    Which free agent?

    What would he cost?

    Which players get you what you want back if you want to trade? In this scenario you are sacrificing assets to replace something that will only cost you money. That’s really bad management.

  55. Woodguy says:

    Ducey:
    rich,

    For sure,

    If Ken Holland was thinking about ditching Hemsky, there would likely be general agreement.Its a trust thing.

    If Holland was Oilers GM, I doubt he would sign Hemsky to Woodguy’s contract.

    Strawman.

    Just stop with that kind of crap.

  56. cabbiesmacker says:

    VOR:
    In woodguy’s link above the table reveals other interesting things about Hemsky. Forget the assists per game because assists don’t count. Points don’t either. Only goals count. We all know Hemsky can’t score goals. He is only 37th in goals per game since the lockout.

    Oh wait I forgot, he is injured some much he is never effective, this entire per game thing has to go. Lets just look at real goals. He is only 39th in real goals. In the entire NHL since the lockout, guy obviously can’t play. He is only 11th in goals since the lockout by right wingers. Definitely only a third or fourth line guy on any other team. 5 in assist by a RW, 9th in points by a RW. Absolutely a useless twit, and that bad body language, crap the guy is a negative factor we will clearly have to throw in somebody just to get a 7th round pick back.

    Maybe we should try asking if Hemsky’s next 7 years look like the last 7 years who much is he worth?

    Not to take shots at Ales but looking at key game situations?

    GW goals 2012 = 0, 2011= 1, 2010 = 0 ( Fact 2, 2, 1, 4, 3 in years prior)
    OT goals 2012 = 0, 2011 = 0, 2010 = 0 ( Fact 0 OT goals ever, and yes I know OT is relatively new)
    GT goals 2012 = 0, 2011 = 0, 2010 = 0 ( Fact 1 GT goal in 03/04 )
    His PP ppg have dropped off hard since 09/10

    Assuming our wonderful management team has relatively short memories the above might be sticking points along with his cost + health concerns for the next 5 years. Not great performances compared to the shiny new up and comers.

    ST is in a tough place. Damned if you do and damned if you don’t with both scenarios. Trade him for next to nada in return now or lose him for even bigger nada after the deadline (Fan angst), OR, sign him and cross your fingers in hopes he stays healthy and ups his production with better linemates than he’s had the past 5 years. If he doesn’t it’s (more fan angst). If he isn’t signed it’s just further confirmation for me that management is content to be satiated with the 4 more years rebuilding with all new shiny pieces security blanket plan, and in all honesty why would they want to rush things? The fans here are so gullible they’ll continue to pack the joint night in and night out no matter how the team performs.

    Don’t think I’d want to be in ST’s shoes to be honest. He’ll take the fallout for any negative results while a teflon Nero fiddles in the background, safe and sound thanks to his boss being an awestruck little fanboy.

    Quick memo to Johnny Cash? I had two gold seats 14 rows up from 1996 through the Cup run. Parked a lot of cars and drank a lot of beers. Haven’t bought a single seat since and won’t no matter how palacial the new arena you are set to gouge us for is. It’ll be a frosty friday in hell before this Man Comes Around. Right up until the day you tie a piano to Lowe’s ass and toss him overboard. Bring MacT back in ANY capacity and it’ll be a lifetime promise.

  57. VOR says:

    I will say it again DSF. Unless you can tell us how to predict who can hold their own against the best players in the NHL then we have to use the guys who currently do it and might get as many points as Hemsky this year. There are a handeful as I said in the last thread. Only one is cheaper. Nick Johnson of Minnesota. Feel free to tell us all the other RWs who can replace Hemsky.

    You talked about Booth and Higgins being such smart moves by GIllis, and they were. However, both guys were playing the tough minutes before they came to Vancouver. We need to pick up similar value deals, like Nick Johnson or Daniel Winnick. That doesn’t mean we should get rid of a guy who can handle amongst the toughest minutes in hockey.

    If Hemsky bounces back to his long term averages (including this year and all of his career of 61 and .79 points) he will have 48 points next year. He will still be playing the toughs. He will still be posting postiive corsi and relative corsi. Now there is only one player who is comparable. Martin Erat. He gets $4.5 M on a long term deal. Strangely that is what I keep suggestign we give Hemsky. That is fair value for a right wing who can put up around 50 points and play the toughs.

    Ducey, the best predictor for Hemsky next year is a reversion to his career averages. Thus 60 odd games and 48 odd points. Only about 30 RWs can do that many points in a season. Only 1 can do it while playing Hemsky’s typical minutes, Martin Erat. See above. He is usually about 30th in the NHL amongst right wingers in scoring.

  58. Woodguy says:

    DSF,

    Woodguy, I have three problems with your line of thinking.

    First, Hemsky’s next contract MUST account for his injury history and lack of production over the past three years. Ignoring it and assuming Hemsky will be a healthy, PPG player for the next 5 years is just silly. Want another Horcoff contract?

    His contract does account for his injury history.

    A lot of the players with his historical production are making $7MM+

    Second, you and many other are forecasting doom if Hemsky isn’t re-signed because there will no one to shelter the kids. Do you honestly believe there is not another player in the NHL that can be acquired to fill that role? For less money?

    The free agent pool is very, very shallow this year and outside of Parise and Semin, no one has his credentials.

    If you trade to acquire that player you are giving up assets for something that would cost you no assets. That’s not good asset management.

    Third, you assume, if Hemsky is re-signed on a front loaded deal that he won’t have a NMC in his next contract. I know if I was his agent there sure as hell would be considering the stupid way Tambellini handled Souray. If it doesn’t work out…trade him? To who and for what.

    Good point. Usually you give up $ for NTC/NMC. Not sure how that would impact the negotiation.

    Since Hemsky can be counted on for about 50 games and 50 points per season, there are alternatives.

    Your crystal ball is as cloudy as mine.

    He’s on pace for 70 games this year.

    it is not sign Hemsky or die.

    No, but its the best alternative.

    Tambellini has been here 4 years. Can you point to a history of good trades or signings that makes you rest easy that he’ll be replaced?

    Also,

    The Oilers plan to have Omark take his spot.

    I’d rather have 3 scoring lines like the elite NHL teams like VAN and BOS do.

    Eberle, Hemsky, Omark, Harsky/Jones.

    That’s not a bad RW line up.

    Eberle, Omark, Jones, Harsky is much worse.

  59. VOR says:

    I’ll say it again. By every reasonable mathematical analysis Hemsky is a $4.5 M player. His next 7 years will likely look a lot like the last 7. Defaulting to his last 3 years to prove how bad he is as stupid as looking at his best years to say how good he is. He is an elite RW with injury history. He will continue to be an elite RW with injury history. He can and does play some of the toughtest minutes in hockey. He and Martin Erat do that with really poor help and yet produce +corsi and +relative corsi. No other right wingers in hockey can say that.

  60. PunjabiOil says:

    This post from HF (credit Horseradish) pretty much sums it up.

    Something Mike Gillis, the Canucks GM for those of you unfamiliar with the name, said in an interview last night on TEAM 1040 here in Van which REALLY resonated with me is, basically:

    I can’t believe teams are looking to trade big pieces this time of year (specifically in reference to Rick Nash, but also big name UFAs). Value is at it’s lowest this time of year because in the summer, teams have cap flexibility and also a 10% extra cap cushion, so they have a lot more flexibility. Also, for UFAs, GMs are getting their least value for good players. If you know 25 games ago that your UFA isn’t going to be re-signing or that your team isn’t a good bet to make the playoffs, I can’t for the life of me understand why you’d wait until the last minute to deal him. His value continues to drop, his chance at injury increases, and the most teams are going to part with at this point are picks and prospects. Not very good return for a useful player.

    Sounded like he was directly ridiculing CBJ, Edmonton, and Carolina to me. Though in much more diplomatic terms. And personally, I agree with him 100%, and it just goes to show the differences between good, strategic-thinking GMs, and poor, reactionary GMs.

    How many times has Tambellini screwed up in recent years? Souray wanted out in January 2009. He doesn’t get moved that summer (despite a 23 goal season, 53 points) when his value would be the highest. Poor season the next year, and waiting until the deadline costs him as he gets injured in a fight. Lack of assertiveness cost the Oil 2.4M on the cap hit this year, and 1.5M next year. Great asset management.

    We will probably saw Khabibulin lose whatever trade value he had with his groin injury last night.

    The decision to trade or re-sign Hemsky should have been made months ago, if not last summer. I suspect a guy like Gillis would have re-signed him last summer (buy low).

    The other part nobody talks about – unless he has an NTC, does a 4-5 year contract really prevent the Oilers from later trading him in a year or two, to address team needs, if deemed necessary? We’ve seen a guy like Cammalleri get moved. Right now all you would get is prospects and picks.

    Truth is, I would like to believe Tambellini is a good manager, and he is only tanking under directions ordered by Katz. That said, he’s been here for a while. There is nominal evidence to suggest he understands the market or the CBA (Khabibulin 4 years in a buyers market, Brodziak, Belanger 3rd year, mismanaging Souray’s trade value, Visnovsky, Teubert, etc.)

    Daryl Katz is a smart guy, a lawyer, a tycoon. Why does he continue employing this management group, let alone consider extending them? Is this revenge for the anti-Katz letters to the editor in the Edmonton Sun? Why do the paying fans continue to endorse the product?

    It just doesn’t make any sense.

    I still follow the team, and watch the games, but I have never been less emotionally apathetic to the Edmonton Oilers.

    It’s quite sad, actually.

  61. PunjabiOil says:

    The other part nobody talks about is how long before a competitor like Taylor Hall demands a trade?

    We have now seen it with Rick Nash, and if things don’t improve quickly, I can’t see Taylor Hall staying here too long. All it will take is 1 trade request, and gone are the fruits of the tanking years.

    2 years of the ELC of both Hall and Eberle gone. The clock is ticking. This trade deadline, the draft, and July 1 are key dates that will tell us alot about where the Oilers stand heading into next year.

  62. Ducey says:

    Which players get you what you want back if you want to trade? In this scenario you are sacrificing assets to replace something that will only cost you money. That’s really bad management.

    Say the Oilers sign PA Parenteau for $3.5 million per season (I don’t have time to search all the FA options or trade options).

    They save money over Hemsky, probably get more points per season over the contract, plus they get Blum and a first rounder. How is getting more for less “bad management”?

    Strawman.

    Just stop with that kind of crap.

    A. Lighten up – we are just shooting the shit about hockey
    B. Its absolutely a trust thing. You do not trust Tambo/ Lowe. If Holland is the vision of the perfect GM, why not compare what he would do in this situation? He keeps Bertuzzi on one year contracts due to his injury history. If Bertuzzi says no, Holland will go get someone else to replace him.
    C. No one is irreplaceable – certainly not Ales Hemsky.

  63. regwald says:

    I was at the Oilers season ticket holder meet and greet. I got my pic with Hemsky and Gilbert and told Hemsky that I wanted him to stay. He replied, I want to stay too.

    Then Gilbert piped up with this gem that I tweeted yesterday:

    Gilbert: About Hemsky. “I don’t want him to go either because he’s a great player & I don’t want to defend him.”

    I guess Gilbert doesn’t care about his body language or the fact that he is the first to leave practise as reported by the MSM.

  64. Captain Obvious says:

    Ducey,

    Rishaug is that you?

    On the last thread, you outed yourself with your comments about how Hemsky is different this year and he just isn’t trying. There is no evidence for any of this. If your eyes are telling you this, that is evidence you shouldn’t trust your eyes.

    Not only are your eyes failing you but your general perception of reality is askew.

    If the choices actually were Parenteau, Blum + first round pick, on the one hand, and then Hemsky, on the other, then maybe we should think about trading Hemsky.

    However, every single assumption you’ve made in your analysis is wrong. To wit:

    Parenteau might only get 3.5M but he isn’t nearly as good as Hemsky
    Hemsky is going to be traded for less than Blum and a first rounder.

    What is actually going to happen is something like the following:

    Somebody else is going to sign Parenteau.
    Hemsky is going to be traded for Blum or worse.
    Next year, Eberle is going to regress to the mean, Hall is going to face top competition and fight like hell to break even, the power play and special teams will be worse, and this team will draft first overall again.

    The fact of the matter is that almost everything has gone right this year except for Hemsky. There isn’t room for improvement anywhere on the roster and we are the second worst team in the league. If this team trades Hemsky they are a lot closer to a #1 overall pick then they are to the playoffs.

  65. PunjabiOil says:

    Back in 2007, I said there is no one in the UFA market that the Oilers can replace for 5.2M. The Oilers thought otherwise, only to be proven wrong. Then they resorted to going after Drury, Gomez, Kariya, and Nylander. All 4 would have turned out to be bad moves.

    Then the offersheet business began. Vanek (4 1st rounders) then Penner (relatively 2 disappointing seasons).

    Likewise to 2007, the UFA corps are incredibly weak. The Oilers will not find a replacement for Ales Hemsky at the 4.5-5M range. The Oilers will be scrambling to find a replacement, and will end up overpaying a guy like Huselius

    I mean, have a look at the UFA forwards list. It’s not pretty.

    http://capgeek.com/free_agents.php?year_id=2012&team_id=-1&position_id=F&fa_type_id=2

    We’ll get a late first round pick, who if everything goes right, turns out to be an Ales Hemsky in 5 years. And a defenceman like Blum, who right now is in the same development stage as Ladlslav Smid, circa 2006-2007.

    Good times.

  66. VOR says:

    Ducey, P.A. Parteneau is actually a very good player. He struggled mightily to get to the NHL and stay and all credit to him. However there are four things you aren’t allowing for.

    1. He is a UFA and coming off a career season and while he has said publicly he wants term and to stay with the Islanders and guesses have it around $3.75 M. However, that doesn’t mean he would come here for that.

    2. His career year is being driven by playing sheltered minutes with the some of the best help in the NHL better help and weaker opponents than Jordan Eberle. He will also lose the plum power play minutes (just as Hemsky has) to Eberle. He also has a really sheltered zone start, quite comparable to Eberle.

    3. He has some history of injuries in the minors and plays a very rough and tumble style for such a small guy.

    4. He doesn’t have a very long history and we may be seeing the best season of his career.

    That said, he is exciting and talented and would make a good 2RW if we really believe Eberle is ready for the heavy lifting. I like Blum. So while overall I am with you I think that combination (Blum + Parteneau) would probably make us worse in the short term than keeping Hemsky. It might however be a good long term move. Thing is what if you trade Hemsky and can’t sigh a free agent replacement, then what?

  67. VOR says:

    Sorry Ducey didn’t mean to pile on, Captain Obvious beat me to it while I was typing.

  68. cabbiesmacker says:

    Captain Obvious:
    Ducey,

    However, every single assumption you’ve made in your analysis is wrong.To wit:

    Hemsky is going to be traded for less than Blum and a first rounder.

    What is actually going to happen is something like the following:

    Hemsky is going to be traded for Blum or worse.

    Why am I confused?

  69. regwald says:

    Just reading Friedmans 30 thoughts and he has this quip about Poile. “The Predators have decided this has got to be their year.”

    If that’s the case, then maybe the overpay for Hemsky will be worth it. But if he’s going to get stupid, I see Nash on his radar.

  70. stevezie says:

    PunjabiOil,

    Disagree on Kariya, I thought he would have fit just fine, especially at that price.

    regwald,

    I don’t think any of the teams purported to be in the Nash sweepstakes make as much sense as the Preds. I’m not saying the Preds can put together the best package, they can’t, but they have the least to lose and the most to gain by picking him up. I just have no idea if they can afford him.
    Maybe LA has as much to gain, but they still have more to lose, I say.

  71. Woodguy says:

    Say the Oilers sign PA Parenteau for $3.5 million per season (I don’t have time to search all the FA options or trade options).

    If you are paying Parenteau 3.5MM, assuming he becomes UFA and is willing to sign here, you might as well give Hemsky 5-5.5.

    As others stated, he’s very sheltered and has only 1 good season in the NHL.

    A. Lighten up – we are just shooting the shit about hockey

    I’ve been cheering for this team for over 30 years. I bought season tickets for 5 years out of the playoffs. Edmonton is cold and shitty in the winter and Tambellini is wrecking the only good thing about Edmonton in the winter. I reserved the right to be pissed off about this.

    Saying DET won’t sign Hemsky and therefore that proves your right is just inane.

    B. Its absolutely a trust thing. You do not trust Tambo/ Lowe. If Holland is the vision of the perfect GM, why not compare what he would do in this situation? He keeps Bertuzzi on one year contracts due to his injury history. If Bertuzzi says no, Holland will go get someone else to replace him.

    Bertuzzi just turned 37, Hemsky will be 29 in the summer. World of difference.

    C. No one is irreplaceable – certainly not Ales Hemsky.

    No, he’s not replaceable, but he’s by far the best option they have.

    It took these guys 3 years to replace their 4C (Brodziak), I’m sure they’ll whip up a tough minute winger out of nothing in the summer.

  72. Woodguy says:

    regwald:
    I was at the Oilers season ticket holder meet and greet. I got my pic with Hemsky and Gilbert and told Hemsky that I wanted him to stay. He replied, I want to stay too.

    Then Gilbert piped up with this gem that I tweeted yesterday:

    Gilbert: About Hemsky. “I don’t want him to go either because he’s a great player & I don’t want to defend him.”

    I guess Gilbert doesn’t care about his body language or the fact that he is the first to leave practise as reported by the MSM.

    Good info.

    What does it say to the team when you trade away a guy like Hemsky?

    Good luck with the wishes of long extensions for the Chosen 3. Playing on shitty teams that trade away their best players.

    Why would they want to stay?

  73. stevezie says:

    Woodguy,

    Strongly agree about Parenteau. Maybe he could replace Hemsky, but you would be insane to count on it. You’d be insane to think it’s a sure thing we could sign him at all. UFAs aren’t a grocery list; there’s no guarentee they’ll even make it to July 1, and if they do- what kind of sales pitch do you think the Oilers have at this point? If there is even one other team in competition for a UFA what could we possibly say to convince them to come here? And don’t say money, because it’s clear that’s not all it takes.
    We all know Hemsky’s injury history; I don’t want to give him term either, but If he means it when he says he wants to stay, I think you’ve got to do it. When you come to a fork in the road, take it.

  74. Captain Obvious says:

    On the Blum/Voynov thing. Here’s a graded comparison based upon their ranking.

    In terms of quality of competition,

    Blum has faced the easiest the NHL has to offer. I give him a D.
    Voynov has faced middling (124th toughest). I give him a C+

    In terms of zone starts:

    Blum has faced around the top 20% of difficulty. I give him an A-.
    Voynov has faced bottom 20% of difficulty. I give him a C-.

    In terms of pts/60:

    Blum has 0.87, that’s 68th best. I give him a B
    Voynov has 0.86. I give him a B.

    In terms of relative corsi:

    Blum has a -7.7 rating, that’s 171st best (out of just over 200). I give him a C-.
    Voynov has a 9.5 rating, that’s 23rd best. I give him an A-

    In terms of SF/SA per 60.

    Blum is 19.8/27.8. I give him a C
    Voynov is 29.7/25.8. I give him a B+.

    So they’ve played in circumstances that aren’t very comparable. But Voynov is crushing his opposition while Blum is getting crushed. It’s a small sample size but Voynov’s performance is consistent with his minor league scoring.

    His numbers are right in line with the KIngs top 4 (Doughty is miles ahead and then Voynov is right there with Greeene, Mitchell, and Scuderi–with Jack Johnson miles behind). His on-ice shooting percentage is low (around six percent) while Blum’s is high (around ten) which tells me his pts/game is more sustainable. By the numbers Voynov is the clear choice.

  75. regwald says:

    Woodguy,

    A decade ago we kept trading away our best players because we couldn’t afford to keep them. Now, they trade them away because of ….. bad body language and leaving practice when it ends.

    Yup, sends a good message that players are not here for the long haul. Nice message from management.

  76. PunjabiOil says:

    The Oilers have since 2006, traded or not re-sign several players that wanted to be here, and have generally replaced them with inferior talent:

    1. Lupul
    2. Cole
    3. Hejda
    4. Sykora
    5. Roloson
    6. Smyth
    7. Grebeshkov
    8. Penner

    Soon to be

    9. Hemsky

    Yet, the organization gives the vibe that they cannot attract free agents, needs a new arena to attract such talent, etc.

    The UFA market is always a gamble – you have 29 other teams competing against you. Players will be more attracted to winning organizations. And you have to significantly overpay. Why not take the sure thing, that is familiar with the organization, expresses desire to stay?

    The Edmonton Oilers have flushed away good NHL players. Their recent string of failures is not by fluke or design. Management will have to be altered for any long-term success.

    We wait.

  77. FPB94 says:

    Where is Lubo now?

    Not like he would have stayed long enough to make a difference.

    Ah and protest law C-30. Vic Toews’ the real nutjob.

  78. VOR says:

    Captain Obvious,

    So first you say Voynov is a top four D already them you admit I am right that he is getting #5 minutes and yet this somehow supports your argument he is already top 4. Let me assure you it doesn’t.

    However you like to slice this Voynov never goes out on the ice without linemates who are in the top half of the NHL and never faces competition who are not in the bottom 50%. In fact, averaged by the three most common metrics Voynov’s competition is in the bottom 28% in the league and his teammates are in the top 37%. Huge difference. No matter what metric you use Blum plays against the bottom 6% and plays with the bottom 6%. Yet Blum produces as many points. He also has that terrible zone start (the 25th hardest of any dman with more than 30 games so far this year) versus Voynov’s 163rd hardest. Blum also does more to move the puck forward, His zone finish is 48% while Voynov’s is 45.4 which is the 10th worst amongst all 188 dmen with more than 30 games this year.

    By the way Voynov had 107 points in 230 AHL games, Blum has 86 in 158. In other words at the AHL level Blum is the better point producer.

    I still don’t see any clear separation between the two. Each has arguments in his favor, each has huge issues remaining to solve before they will be top 4 anywhere.

  79. cabbiesmacker says:

    PunjabiOil:
    The Oilers have since 2006, traded or not re-sign several players that wanted to be here, and have generally replaced them with inferior talent:
    1.Lupul
    2.Cole
    3.Hejda
    4.Sykora
    5.Roloson
    6.Smyth
    7.Grebeshkov
    8.Penner

    I don’t think Lupul or Cole wanted to be in Edm at all or that Penner or Roloson really gave a shit to be honest. Roloson just wanted to play anywhere he could.

  80. regwald says:

    In response to the tidbit that LT listed above about the 2-3 year gap before the young dmen come into their own and make a difference.

    After the recent world jr’s I saw a stat from TSN about defencemen from the World Jr’s that are named to the all star team. Going back 6 years, they said the Allstar dmen were playing in the NHL. I think they stretched the truth a bit, in that some were like 18 months later. But, I gather that Tambo must have seen the same stat when he mentioned Klefbom and Musil in that discussion.

    Klefbom was named to this year’s allstar team along with Gormley

    World Jr Allstars

    I am not agreeing that the Oilers young dmen are fast tracked to fame, but there is a bit of history at least with Klefbom. That also with the word, he might be interested in coming to NA next season increases this likelyhood.

  81. VOR says:

    Slava Voynov is 2 minutes and 10 seconds away from being #4 on LA. Jonathan Blum is .53 seconds away from being #4 on Nashville.

  82. DSF says:

    VOR:
    Thing is what if you trade Hemsky and can’t sigh a free agent replacement, then what?

    Thing is, you trade for one.

    Teams do it all the time.

    Whether or not Tambelinni can do it is a totally different question.

  83. Lowetide says:

    Regwald: Of course. And it’s important to point out that the 200 NHL line in the sand is mine. However, I don’t think the Oilers have a player in junior or Europe who will be a difference maker next season or the one after that.

  84. Woodguy says:

    Tencer just tweeted:

    “Bob Stauffer says Hemsky might be entertaining 2 or 3 yrs: “I’m led to believe that there may be some softening on his positioning on term.””

    If he’s willing to go 2-3 years, not re-signing him is beyond incomprehensible.

  85. DSF says:

    VOR:
    I will say it again DSF. Unless you can tell us how to predict who can hold their own against the best players in the NHL then we have to use the guys who currently do it and might get as many points as Hemsky this year. There are a handeful as I said in the last thread. Only one is cheaper. Nick Johnson of Minnesota. Feel free to tell us all the other RWs who can replace Hemsky.

    You talked about Booth and Higgins being such smart moves by GIllis, and they were. However, both guys were playing the tough minutes before they came to Vancouver. We need to pick up similar value deals, like Nick Johnson or Daniel Winnick. That doesn’t mean we should get rid of a guy who can handle amongst the toughest minutes in hockey.

    If Hemsky bounces back to his long term averages (including this year and all of his career of 61 and .79 points) he will have 48 points next year. He will still be playing the toughs. He will still be posting postiive corsi and relative corsi. Now there is only one player who is comparable. Martin Erat. He gets $4.5 M on a long term deal. Strangely that is what I keep suggestign we give Hemsky. That is fair value for a right wing who can put up around 50 points and play the toughs.

    Ducey, the best predictor for Hemsky next year is a reversion to his career averages. Thus 60 odd games and 48 odd points. Only about 30 RWs can do that many points in a season. Only 1 can do it while playing Hemsky’s typical minutes, Martin Erat. See above. He is usually about 30th in the NHL amongst right wingers in scoring.

    I don’t disagree with any of this but I have serious doubts Hemsky will sign for (in effect) less than what he was paid on his last contract and the $5 million he is making this season. Nor do I think he’ll sign for less than Horcoff.

    David Booth ($4.25M) Chris Higgins ($1.9M) Michael Ryder ($3.5M) are all players similar to Hemsky (warts and all) that were acquired for very little. I could make a more exhaustive list but I think the point is very clear.

    There is only one reason to get rid of Hemsky and that is his contracts demands. We don’t know what they are but if they are anywhere close to $5M with term, agreeing to those demands is not a bet any smart GM would make.

  86. regwald says:

    Lowetide,

    I agree with you LT, one of Musil or Klefbom could be a 6-7 dman this fall or next, but agreed not a difference maker. In fact, expecting them to be anything more than a bit player the next two seasons is plain silly.

    Maybe this is the part of Tambo’s plan that finally buries him as GM. And hopefully KLowe with him.

  87. Captain Obvious says:

    VOR:
    Slava Voynov is 2 minutes and 10 seconds away from being #4 on LA. Jonathan Blum is .53 seconds away from being #4 on Nashville.

    </blockquote
    Either the term top four refers to value/quality or it doesn't mean anything at all. The way you are using it is purely descriptive. It doesn't add any information.

    The difficult question is how to evaluate value/quality? While you are correct concerning the context of Voynov's numbers you have ignored the excellent corsi and shot numbers. Surely these are relevant. If you give them any value at all it is hard not to think that Voynov isn't in the top 120 D in the league.

  88. DSF says:

    In other news…while Eberle is a sublime talent, has anyone noticed what Erik Karlsson is doing in Ottawa?

    2G 2A 4P +4 today.

    12G 45A 57P +14 on a borderline playoff team.

    Not bad for a 15th overall pick and he’s only 21.

  89. Woodguy says:

    David Booth ($4.25M) Chris Higgins ($1.9M) Michael Ryder ($3.5M) are all players similar to Hemsky (warts and all) that were acquired for very little. I could make a more exhaustive list but I think the point is very clear.

    Career pts/gm

    Booth 0.55
    Higgins 0.49
    Hemsky 0.79

    Nope, they’re not even close.

    I better check pts/gm since the lockout.

    Ranked pts/gm since the lockout (active players only, min 80 games played)

    Booth 157th
    Higgins 191st
    Hemsky 33rd

    Same player eh?

  90. Woodguy says:

    Oops, forgot Ryder.

    0.618pts/gm

    That’s closer

    131st
    33rd

    Still not in the same conversation.

  91. godot10 says:

    DSF:
    In other news…while Eberle is a sublime talent, has anyone noticed what Erik Karlsson is doing in Ottawa?

    2G 2A 4P +4 today.

    12G 45A 57P +14 on a borderline playoff team.

    Not bad for a 15th overall pick and he’s only 21.

    Not possible. Young, highly drafted defensemen don’t make an impact early in their careers, or so we’ve been told over and over again in the Oilogosphere! -).

  92. regwald says:

    DSF,

    So, you are saying we should be expecting big things from our acquired #13th overall pick Colton Teubert ? Wahooo ! Great news on the dman front !!!!

    Excellent !

  93. godot10 says:

    Note this does not mean I don’t think that the Oilers need to obtain a legit veteran top 4 defenseman.

  94. Lowetide says:

    All problems solved. Young defensemen adjust immediately!!!!

  95. regwald says:

    Lowetide:
    Allproblems solved. Young defensemen adjust immediately!!!!

    What did we know. We just needed to be giving Teubert more NHL ice time. I blame Renney ! And Steve Smith !!! Damnit !

  96. VOR says:

    Captain Obvious, I am not ignoring corsi what so ever. I just think it needs context. In this case the context is that Voynov is playing with above average players and starting in the O-zone. That could could explain good to great corsi. His great corsi could well be an artifact. Certainly Blum’s terrible o-zone start and horrible teammates explain his poor corsi. Stick Voynov out with Lander, Petrell and Eager and with Plante as he is partner and his corsi goes bye-bye. This explains why MPS’ corsi numbers are so amazing and why perhaps Voynov’s aren’t.

  97. DSF says:

    Woodguy:
    David Booth ($4.25M) Chris Higgins ($1.9M) Michael Ryder ($3.5M) are all players similar to Hemsky (warts and all) that were acquired for very little. I could make a more exhaustive list but I think the point is very clear.

    Career pts/gm

    Booth 0.55
    Higgins 0.49
    Hemsky 0.79

    Nope, they’re not even close.

    I better check pts/gm since the lockout.

    Ranked pts/gm since the lockout (active players only, min 80 games played)

    Booth 157th
    Higgins 191st
    Hemsky 33rd

    Same player eh?

    No one said they were the same player Woodguy but selectively using stats while ignoring others is not you usual MO.

    Hemsky’s next contract will place far more weight on what he has or has not accomplished much more recently.

    This season, for example:

    Hemsky – .55
    Booth – .59
    Higgins – .60
    Ryder – .71

    Now, I get it that you are willing to place a huge bet that Hemsky will return to his former scoring prowess and outscore all those players in the future but all the evidence from the last three years indicates that would be a very, very bad bet if the Oilers have to pay big money AND term to keep Hemsky.

    Again, for the record, I’m in favour of re-signing Hemsky but if the Oilers are looking at another Horcoff contract, that would be profoundly stupid.

  98. Gerta Rauss says:

    Woodguy: Tencer just tweeted:“Bob Stauffer says Hemsky might be entertaining 2 or 3 yrs: “I’m led to believe that there may be some softening on his positioning on term.””

    That’s terrific news if true.

  99. DSF says:

    regwald:
    DSF,

    So, you are saying we should be expecting big things from our acquired #13th overall pick Colton Teubert ? Wahooo ! Great news on the dman front !!!!

    Excellent !

    Sure…

    Of course Karlsson has already played 195 NHL games and has scored 30 goals and 128 points.

    Otherwise they’re exactly the same. :)

  100. PunjabiOil says:

    There is no reason a deal cannot be hammered out if Hemsky is willing to take 2-3 years. There seems to be real desire on Hemsky’s part to iron out a deal – a real shame if it doesn’t get done.

    “I don’t think Lupul or Cole wanted to be in Edm at all or that Penner or Roloson really gave a shit to be honest. Roloson just wanted to play anywhere he could”.

    1. Lupul seemed pretty upset on his radio exit interview after being traded. Stauffer alluded to this point back then too. The Oilers organization wanted some commitment from Lupul (he was raving about California) – so Lupul decided to buy a house here, and start his golf tournament. A short while later, he was traded. Getting traded to Edmonton wasn’t obviously his first choice, but it does appear he was willing to make it work, and he did sign a 3 year contract. Not that acquiring Pitkanen was a bad move, the subsequent Cole deal was (RFA for a guy 1 year away form UFA.

    Still, Lupul did produce some reasonably decent seasons and is now breaking out a little bit.

    2. Cole was thrilled when he was traded here, and upset when he was traded back to Carolina. I think he genuinely wanted back here, but there was just no room (Thank Kevin Lowe for his overpayment of depth contracts).

    3. Roloson, after signing with the NYI, said if the Oilers offered him 2 years, he would have stayed. They didn’t give him those 2 years – and instead gave a 36 year old a 4 year contract because he was a ”great teammate” a ”Stanley cup Winner,” and a ”mentor for JDD and Dubnyk”

  101. regwald says:

    DSF,

    I guess 20 NHL games, 1 pt 18PIM and -4 is not quite the same ? LOL

  102. Bos8 says:

    DSF: Sure…Of course Karlsson has already played 195 NHL games and has scored 30 goals and 128 points.Otherwise they’re exactly the same.

    At age 21 you say – Maybe Winter, Sather and Lou aren’t wrong. We don’t have to wait five years for the kids to ripen. Some could get here sooner.

    Winter might be a terrible human being, his blog is interesting in spite of it.

    One point I liked – Boston is run by three Harvard graduates, amongst them an agent.

    Ours are run by High School Equivalents.

    Yep, sounds about right.

    Anything to this? Hmmm

  103. Traktor says:

    I have to run so I’m not going to be able to see the response until tomorrow but for the group that claims Hemsky and Gagner will be near impossible to replace via free agency I would love to hear your plans on how you would acquire a top level defensemen. Before Hemsky was rumored to be on the move all of the discussion was on how Edmonton possibly has the worst D in the leauge.

    Common sense would tell us that a top level D would be just as hard to acquire via free agency and given that nobody wants to trade any of our forwards with any value I’m not sure what the plan is.

    If replacing Hemsky with Higgins or David Jones ect is determined a failure then so would bringing in Spacek or Sarich ect to help push a terrible defense past better-than-average.

    And if Parise is a pipe dream then lets cross off Carle or any other top level D that would likely sign elsewhere before deciding on Edmonton.

  104. DSF says:

    Bos8: At age 21 you say – Maybe Winter, Sather and Louaren’t wrong.We don’t have to wait five years for the kids to ripen.Some could get here sooner.

    Winter might be a terrible human being, his blog is interesting in spite of it.

    One point I liked – Boston is run by three Harvard graduates,amongst them an agent.

    Ours are run by High School Equivalents.

    Yep, sounds about right.

    Anything to this? Hmmm

    I would be shocked if the Oilers braintrust graduated high school in the traditional sense.

  105. Bos8 says:

    Per SouthSwe on HFBoards

    ——————————————-

    He played 18.54 tonight. 1 shot.
    More icetime than Brodin for the 8-9th game in a row.

    And yes, Klefbom has been our best D since WJC. No mistakes, so incredibly calm and is always on the right spot.
    He and Brodin is securing the own half. Ur never worried.

    Klefa has also started to get quite some icetime in PP the last 2-3 games. The goal will come soon.

    _____________________________

    To my mind, just as Hemsky should be the finishing school for forwards, Smid should do the same for young D.

    You aint gonna learn diddly from Barker and Co. Then again Smith wasn’t exactly top end either.

    Not totally useless, use him as a bad example.

  106. Dahoosman says:

    I can’t believe you’ve referred to Tambo as Sonny. He’s clearly Fredo.

  107. DBO says:

    Traktor: you are correct I believe. We won’t sign a top end dman over the next few years, so dealing for one is the only option if we want a true top 1-2 guy and are not willing to wait on the “potential” of our 4 D horsemen on the way.

    back to the 3 for 1 deal I keep harping on. If we resign hemsky, and draft a forward, then MPS and Omark are expendable, unless you plan on playing MPS on the 3rd line. It was mentioned a few weeks ago, but the kind of deal I see them making is for Mike Green. Washington is struggling, and need some players now (especially with Backstrom out). And trading for an injury prone player is right in Tambi’s wheelhouse.

    Belanger (he was good there and they need a centre, any centre), Omark, Barker (listen to Spector, he is a top 3 dman), Marincin and maybe a pick for Green and a prospect. LOL. Made me laugh typing it. if that happened i will forgive Tambi all transgressions. Yes Green is injury prone, but that is all spare parts. Beer is my friend.

  108. Bos8 says:

    DSF: I would be shocked if the Oilers braintrust graduated high school in the traditional sense.

    You used to be able to go to Alberta College and get your HS Equivalency.

  109. Lowetide says:

    Well, Fredo overall but this week Sonny at the Causeway. :-) Fredo. Don’t get in a boat!

  110. Lowetide says:

    The Hemsky news is killer if true.

  111. DSF says:

    Bos8: You used to be able to go to Alberta College and get your HS Equivalency.

    That’s about the same program Canadian junior hockey players are on.

  112. DSF says:

    Lowetide:
    The Hemsky news is killer if true.

    Curious, LT.

    If you were Tambellini, what would you offer Hemsky?

  113. DBO says:

    Lowetide:
    The Hemsky news is killer if true.

    Yep. 3 years, $5.5 mill or so would work (I assume overpay for a shorter term), also means Hemmer is still UFA at decent age (32). So do they make a move for a real D at the draft? one can hope.

  114. Lowetide says:

    DSF: I’ve said this before and can’t recall, but believe it was 3×5.

  115. Bos8 says:

    Rich Winter again, on the Oilers D and Team Management.

    http://www.theagentsofchange.com/2012/01/ritch-respond-oilers-and-tom-renney.html#more

    If you here that Glen’s 1980s strategy doesn’t apply today emanating out of the Oilers management suite. Don’t buy it. When Chicago won the Cup back in 2009, the team’s two best forwards were 20 and 21. Their top two D just 24 and 26. And, in the case of Seabrook and Keith, the two had already played more than 300 NHL games – each. We are seeing the rise of young D (when teams played them as youngsters all over the NHL. Hedman is playing anywhere from 22 to 29 minutes every night in Tampa (played his first NHL game at 18), Michael del Zotto in New York is 20th in defenseman NHL scoring as of Jan 15th (played his first NHL game at 19) and Erik Karlsson at 21 in leading the league in scoring amongst defensemen.

    And Sather is doing it again. Of his top four D, Del Zotto is just 21 years of age and has played 169 NHL games and Staal at 25 has played 327 NHL games

  116. Woodguy says:

    DSF: No one said they were the same player Woodguy but selectively using stats while ignoring others is not you usual MO.

    Hemsky’s next contract will place far more weight on what he has or has not accomplished much more recently.

    This season, for example:

    Hemsky – .55
    Booth –.59
    Higgins – .60
    Ryder – .71

    Now, I get it that you are willing to place a huge bet that Hemsky will return to his former scoring prowess and outscore all those players in the future but all the evidence from the last three years indicates that would be a very, very bad bet if the Oilers have to pay big money AND term to keep Hemsky.

    Again, for the record, I’m in favour of re-signing Hemsky but if the Oilers are looking at another Horcoff contract, that would be profoundly stupid.

    I understand your reluctance to give term given his previous 2 years of injury and the slow recovery this year.

    Those issues do not mean he equatable to Higgins, Booth and Ryder though.

    They’ve seen Hemsky come back from the shoulder, get pounded, and its held up. In his last 20 games he’s almost back to his old production.

    Players like him don’t fall of trees. Players like Higgins, Ryder and Booth are much more available.

    Its a big bet, but Katz has made lots of those in his life. Tambellini not so much.

    Trak,

    No one is saying Gagner and Hemsky are similar in ability replace their minutes.

    Its not even close really.

  117. Bos8 says:

    DSF: That’s about the same program Canadian junior hockey players are on.

    And there you have it – The Oilers Trust.

    Notes of Non Interest

    Smith and Bucky as Asst Coaches

    Dave Semenko is a pro scout. Flunked Real Estate Sales in the Edmonton Boom

  118. DBO says:

    Bos8,

    Awesome article. Winter makes some interesting points. Basically to summarize, Sather played the young d with the young O so that they grew together and matured at the same time so they could contend together. What he implies is that by waiting on the D, and the goalies (he talks about 19 yr old Fuhr growing with the team) that some of our young guns will be UFA’s by the time the D and Goalies are ready to step up (he uses NHL games played as his measure).

    He makes some real sense. If you are going to rebuild, let the players you think will be in it for a cup run learn on the job together. I guess if you are gonna suck, let the kids learn on the job. Let’s be honest, it hasn’t been the kids letting us down this year. Is he crazy like a fox?!?

  119. DSF says:

    Woodguy: I understand your reluctance to give term given his previous 2 years of injury and the slow recovery this year.

    Those issues do not mean he equatable to Higgins, Booth and Ryder though.

    They’ve seen Hemsky come back from the shoulder, get pounded, and its held up.In his last 20 games he’s almost back to his old production.

    Players like him don’t fall of trees.Players like Higgins, Ryder and Booth are much more available.

    Its a big bet, but Katz has made lots of those in his life.Tambellini not so much.

    Trak,

    No one is saying Gagner and Hemsky are similar in ability replace their minutes.

    Its not even close really.

    I’d guess if you offered Gillis Hemsky for Booth straight up, he wouldn’t make that deal.

  120. DSF says:

    DBO:
    Bos8,

    Awesome article. Winter makes some interesting points. Basically to summarize, Sather played the young d with the young O so that they grew together and matured at the same time so they could contend together. What he implies is that by waiting on the D, and the goalies (he talks about 19 yr old Fuhr growing with the team) that some of our young guns will be UFA’s by the time the D and Goalies are ready to step up (he uses NHL games played as his measure).

    He makes some real sense. If you are going to rebuild, let the players you think will be in it for a cup run learn on the job together. I guess if you are gonna suck, let the kids learn on the job. Let’s be honest, it hasn’t been the kids letting us down this year. Is he crazy like a fox?!?

    I’ve spoken to Winter personally a few times.

    The man knows what he is talking about.

  121. art vandelay says:

    Deadline 2010: Oilers plucked a 2nd rd pick (Curtis Hamilton) from NAS for D Denis Grebeshkov; claimed Ryan Jones off waivers; dealt Lubo for Ryan Whitney; sent Steve Staios to Calgary for Aaron Johnson and a 3rd rd pick (Travis Ewanyk).

    Convicts who have been violently and repeatedly shower-raped could be considered less victimized then the Oilers on those deals. They truly are the Edmonton Expos, and with luck will leave town before taxpayers get boned for a new arena.

  122. hunter1909 says:

    Irony of Ironies: MPS starts playing like a top ten pick, with Hemsky 2 weeks or less before the trade deadline. No wonder people in here want to cry, it’s like Dante ffs.

    I doubt if I’ve watched more than 1/5 of the games since last year for sure. What’s the point? Seriously?

    Take the last game: oilers start brightly, Canucks score in a minute, oilers start looking Golden Sealish = end of game.

    Horrible to say now, but when they draft in the top three next June, everyone will be happy. Or, at least forgetful.

  123. VOR says:

    DSF,

    Please feel free to share with us the research, the source that says that the past three years are better indicators of Hemsky’s future production than the past 7, or 9. Also, while you are at it please tell us all the great right wingers that can just step in and replace Hemsky and be cheaper and as good with tough minutes and score as well. Over his career, over the last 7 years he is the better player amongst Booth, Ryder, and Higgins – though why we are comparing left wingers like Higgins and Booth to right wingers like Ryder and Hemsky I have no idea.

  124. Bos8 says:

    DBO: Bos8, Awesome article. Winter makes some interesting points. Basically to summarize, Sather played the young d with the young O so that they grew together and matured at the same time so they could contend together. What he implies is that by waiting on the D, and the goalies (he talks about 19 yr old Fuhr growing with the team) that some of our young guns will be UFA’s by the time the D and Goalies are ready to step up (he uses NHL games played as his measure).He makes some real sense. If you are going to rebuild, let the players you think will be in it for a cup run learn on the job together. I guess if you are gonna suck, let the kids learn on the job. Let’s be honest, it hasn’t been the kids letting us down this year. Is he crazy like a fox?!?

    Actually Woodguy deserves the credit re Winters. He’s the one with the Heads Up.

  125. spoiler says:

    There can’t be enough value out there for Hemsky. Not enough to cover the bad optics for both the fans and the team. And he’d rather not move. And surely this stretch of losing must have Tambo realizing it would only get worse without Hemmer. They have to be careful with hope and the kids.

    That tweet is pretty easy to believe, actually.

    Jennifer Jones is not getting the puck bounces.

  126. TheOtherJohn says:

    DSF

    You are right. Booth is very well paid third liner. Hemsky is a better player but more expensive and yet to be signed. Hemsky would get 75 PTS playing with Nucks. Might get them closer to a Cup. Better hurry window closing

    Winters is wrong and knows he is wrong. Gretzky and Messier were already on the roster. Reasonably good building blocks. Added absolute elite elite goalie early in 1st round. Added Coffey early in first round, had Lowe late in first round and found Huddy and Gregg at no cost. We are just short an elite goaler, an early 1st rounder and 2 absolute steals in Huddy & Gregg– so with those HUGE differences, there are a lot of similarities. With the original Oilers. That’s like suggesting current Oilers like Toews Hawks, excepting Keith and Seabrook

  127. Lowetide says:

    Doesn’t Winter represent David Musil? If so, I’d have to think that at least part of his motivation is to create a scenario where his guy gains NHL employment sooner than later. I’m on the same train–really like Musil save the footspeed–but that’s kind of a conflict of interest for Mr Winter if I’m correct.

  128. hunter1909 says:

    You guy’s just won’t admit it’s Horcoff/Khabibulin contracts that hamstring Tambellini re: Hemsky signing a 3 year term deal.

    A hockey team thats capped simply cannot take too many risks, and oiler’s have blown the farm on these turds to the tune of 10. million dollars a season.

    Someone had to say it.

    PS: Messier and Gretzky were already on the team before Coffey was drafted, so wtf is that agent trying to get at?

  129. Captain Obvious says:

    If you sign Hemsky you don’t have to hope he bounces back since his poor performance this year is, in large measure, a product of a 6.48 on ice shooting %. By eye and by number he is still creating offense. The puck just hasn’t gone in the net. By every other statistical measure except for points Hemsky is still a strong performer and he’s been doing it against the toughest competition of his carerr. Some kind of significant improvement is a statistical necessity even if Hemsky plays exactly the same.

    By contrast, someone like Ovechkin has seen his underlying numbers collapse. Something very significant would have to change for him to bounce back.

    So, if you sign Hemsky the only gamble you are taking is with health. The performance is there. To believe otherwise is to place an inordinate amount of stress on all those plays that result in goals while ignoring the other 55 minutes of the game. The criticism of Hemsky is classic post facto reasoning.

  130. DSF says:

    VOR:
    DSF,

    Please feel free to share with us the research, the source that says that the past three years are better indicators of Hemsky’s future production than the past 7, or 9. Also, while you are at it please tell us all the great right wingers that can just step in and replace Hemsky and be cheaper and as good with tough minutes and score as well. Over his career, over the last 7 years he is the better player amongst Booth, Ryder, and Higgins – though why we are comparing left wingers like Higgins and Booth to right wingers like Ryder and Hemsky I have no idea.

    If you’re sure Hemsky is the player he was 7 years ago, you have a point.

    If Hemsky is the player he has been for the past 3 seasons, you don’t.

  131. VOR says:

    Booth $4,250,000 cap hit.
    Hemsky $4,100,000 cap hit

  132. VOR says:

    DSF,

    My point is you have no proof that Hemsky’s recent injury history is predictive. I keep asking for it and not getting it. Thus, I must conclude you don’t have it.

    The more players I look at the more there 1st year post new contract seems to skew towards their career averages. So I want to know why it is you think otherwise? Other than that you don’t like Hemsky. Tells us why you are so sure Hemsky’s injuries will continue. I am eager to hear rational arguments on the subject.

    I don’t need to be sure that Hemsky will bounce back to be sure that the math seems to argue that regardless of injury new contract years are more closely predicted by career performance averages than by recent player history. If somebody has done the research and proven the opposite I want to know.

  133. DSF says:

    TheOtherJohn:
    DSF

    You are right. Booth is very well paid third liner. Hemsky is a better player but more expensive and yet to be signed. Hemsky would get 75 PTS playing with Nucks. Might get them closer to a Cup. Better hurry window closing

    Not sure how Hemsky would get 75 points playing with the Canucks given that you can only count on him for fewer than 70 games.

    Especially since he would have to supplant Daniel Sedin on the top line to even have a sniff.

    Booth has played second line minutes exclusively since he came over and is having a decent season despite missing 20 games after taking that knee on knee hit.

    Thing is, you have to look at what you can expect from each player going forward.

    Even with his injury, Booth has 2 fewer points than Hemsky in 6 fewer games.

    Maybe Hemsky will return to form next season but nothing we’ve seen in the last three years gives me any confidence that is a sure bet.

  134. DSF says:

    VOR:
    DSF,

    My point is you have no proof that Hemsky’s recent injury history is predictive. I keep asking for it and not getting it. Thus, I must conclude you don’t have it.

    The more players I look at the more there 1st year post new contract seems to skew towards their career averages. So I want to know why it is you think otherwise? Other than that you don’t like Hemsky. Tells us why you are so sure Hemsky’s injuries will continue. I am eager to hear rational arguments on the subject.

    I don’t need to be sure that Hemsky will bounce back to be sure that the math seems to argue that regardless of injury new contract years are more closely predicted by career performance averages than by recent player history. If somebody has done the research and proven the opposite I want to know.

    No one has it. Never will.

    Is Sidney Crosby likely to be susceptible to injury in the future?

    Prove it.

    BTW, I like Hemsky fine but not at any cost which is what we are hearing here.

  135. Lowetide says:

    No one is saying at any cost.

  136. Bos8 says:

    Lowetide: Doesn’t Winter represent David Musil? If so, I’d have to think that at least part of his motivation is to create a scenario where his guy gains NHL employment sooner than later. I’m on the same train–really like Musil save the footspeed–but that’s kind of a conflict of interest for Mr Winter if I’m correct.

    Maybe Winter has a vested interest. He’s hated Edmonton management for years. Different points of view make for dialogue. The present accepted, expert opinion, is that D need years to ripen in the AHL. Except that there are kids out there playing NHL D in their teens.

    I just don’t buy that Edmonton has to spend three, four years grooming defencemen. Each player is on a individual level of development. The Oiler model can borrow from others.

    If Larsson can make NJ than Klefa, (Love that nickname), can possibly make it at 19. Marincin might be ready after a half year in the AHL. But you need some steady defencemen to provide the training wheels and some quality coaching. The Oilers are busily stockpiling Potter and Sutton so I doubt that the kids will get a shot or that the trust will evaluate talent.

    Watching the Oilers D doing the same bad things over and over does not infuse me with rosy expectations in accelerated D development.

    To my mind, one of the kids should be given an honest shot to make the team next year. If he needs tender care and attention so be it. Put him in swaddling cloths and carry on.

  137. DSF says:

    Lowetide:
    No one is saying at any cost.

    Would you go 5 years @ $5.5M?

  138. TheOtherJohn says:

    Have no clue why anyone engages you.

    Booth is an offensive third line player. He plays for the Nucks. Therefore he is great. Gillis is great. Team is great and, by logical extension, you too are great. They have not won anything yet but that is irrelevant because they are, yup, you guessed it : GREAT!!

    Pretty sure they’ll have to build a new wing to HHOF to include all those GREAT Canuck players

    I think Rich Winter is a smart guy but after your endorsement, I question my own views.

  139. spoiler says:

    Things I’d Like To See Happen This Week and Beyond:

    1. Hemsky signed for 2 x $4.75M. Introduce him to the Penalty Kill. Gives him more ice time, and earns that contract.

    2. Barker. If there’s no market for him waive his ass, offer to bring him back up on re-entry. If there are still no takers leave him buried in the A for the remainder of the season.

    3. Bring up Teubert and give him NHL at-bats

    4. Waive or trade or IR Hordichuk. Get Omark up here. Pitlick and Hamilton get cups of coffee when opportunity presents itself. If there’s a long term injury, bring up Hartikainen instead. Do some wacky stuff like run an all Scandinavian 4th line. Start spelling the vets (Jones, Belanger) to get kids some ice time.

    5. Khabby is waived or IR’ed. Both Danis and Roy should get auditions. Why the hell not find out what your other goalies can do before next season? Doobie gets fed the bulk o see how he handles it.

  140. Bos8 says:

    Horcoff looked good with Hemsky. Hall and RNH looked good with Hemsky for a couple of games. Hall looked good with Hemsky. MPS looks good with Hemsky.

    Notice a common thread? Nuff said.

  141. oilersfan says:

    Captain Obvious,

    Captain Obvious.

    Thanks for the work on Zannon. Considering everybody here knows the Oilers need to sign at least a second pairing dman next year, and since we can probably agree they have no hope at the top end guys like Suter, now that Gleason and Beauchemin are gone isn’t it worth the discussion to see which second tier UFA:s could make a difference for the Oilers? Every time I watch Zannon play the puck gets taken from the forward and back the other end of the ice. He’s no all star but would be an excellent partner for young Petry. Given Whitney’s uncertainty if the Oilers could sign Zannon I think the pairings could be

    Smid – Gilber

    Petry – Zannon

    Whitney – Sutton

    With Potter and Peckham rounding out the roster.

    FYI Stauffer has said the Oilers plan to have 8 dmen and 13 forwards next year.

    Not sure Plante would clear waivers, in which case maybe the Oilers should trade Peckham this year.

    I really hope that Hemsky rumour is true and they sign him for 3 years. Frankly I would prefer the 4 years and for the life of me can’t understand why Tambellini doesn’t.

    One other topic noted earlier….Boston and Vancouver’s GM’s are both Lawyers. I know Gillis played some mid level hockey, not sure about Chiarelli. The point is, they are well educated. We all know you don’t learn how to be a NHL GM in law school or getting an MBA, but you do learn how to think critically and analyze situations accurately. I believe neither Tambelini nor Lowe went to University. I wonder which other $150 million divisions of the Katz empire have high school equivalencies as their chief executives?

    I think Winter is talking his own book wrt young dmen and Musil, just like he said with a straight face that Bryzgalov is worth $8 million per year. I think he would be a much better GM than Tambellini or Lowe and would hire him in a hearbeat. That being said I suspect he would have to take a pay cut so he probably wouldn’t be interested.

  142. Lowetide says:

    DSF: That’s a little rich for me.

    Bos8: I think they will have one of the kids on the roster for 30+ games next season just due to injuries. My point is in regard to when they will actually help win hockey games. None of them is Adam Larsson–a top 3 selection–although Murray might be just that by fall.

  143. DSF says:

    TheOtherJohn:
    Have no clue why anyone engages you.

    Booth is an offensive thirdline player. He plays for the Nucks. Therefore he is great. Gillis is great. Team is great and, by logical extension, you too are great. They have not won anything yet but that is irrelevant because they are, yup, you guessed it : GREAT!!

    Pretty sure they’ll have to build a new wing to HHOF to include all those GREAT Canuck players

    I think Rich Winter is a smart guy but after your endorsement, I question my own views.

    Oh, good grief.

    Take a look at TOI/G and you’ll see Booth is 6th. (he isn’t on the PP or PK))

    Last season in Florida he was 1st.

    If you watched the game last night you might have noticed Vancouver’s third line was Hansen-Hodgson-Higgins…has been all season when Higgins wasn’t ill.

    Unless Vancouver has 4 forwards on their third line, any reasonable person would have to assume Booth is playing on the second line.

    Not sure what the Canucks history has to do with anything but fill yer boots.

  144. DSF says:

    Lowetide:
    DSF: That’s a little rich for me.

    I’d guess that’s what he’s looking for.

    If he takes a 2-3 year deal, the dollars hardly matter at all especially if it’s front loaded.

    7-5-4?

  145. Bos8 says:

    Lowetide: DSF: That’s a little rich for me. Bos8: I think they will have one of the kids on the roster for 30+ games next season just due to injuries. My point is in regard to when they will actually help win hockey games. None of them is Adam Larsson–a top 3 selection–although Murray might be just that by fall.

    I was very impressed by Klefbom. I know, “Saw him good” . But he’s been getting top minutes on one of the top teams in Sweden. All this from healthy scratches at the beginning of the season.

    Having said that, to bring a newbie up, you need a baby sitter. Someone to tutor and settle down the kid. An on ice coach, to cover up the mistakes. In other words a samless, integration system.

    I will repeat till doomsday that Smid lost a couple of years due to learning by trial and error.

    The Oilers have something like seven D on Contract. And that’s before the Barker black hole. So one more experiment and there you have it. I remember poor Teubert playing with Reckam, boy there was a revelation for the kid. What a learning experience. Talk about chaos, as in “What the hell just happened? Did I screw up?” Welcome to the NHL kid. Scared the crap right out of him.

    Something akin to one of the Russians with Messier bearing down on him after the big elbow. The joke was “A whole bunch of stuttering Russians in the dressing room Mmmess, Ellllb and the others nodding in sympathetic unison”.

  146. rickithebear says:

    If we are to over pay 1.25M per player it should be for experienced Dmen.

  147. Captain Obvious says:

    Here is some more on Voynov. His numbers this year are very close to Shattenkirk. They both have around 55% offensive zone starts, against below average competition with above average teammates (Voynov’s are better). They’ve scored at near the same rate with similar shot rates and good rel. corsi. Voynov is a solid 3/4 defenseman right now. It’s true he’s playing 5/6 minutes but he is killing it and to my mind that translates to second pairing quality.

    My rough ranking has Voynov easily in the second quartile of NHL defensemen. Shattenkirk would be top quartile.

    In Oiler news Tom Gilbert is our best defenseman and Ryan Whitney is our worst. Barker hasn’t played my 20 game cut off. It’s hard to explain how bad Whitney has been this year. He’s played bottom competition with top teammates and managed to come out way behind. By the numbers the Oilers only have four NHL defensemen (Gilbert, Smid, Petry, and Sutton). Now they aren’t going to punt Whitney but whether they trade Hemsky or not they really need to sign someone in the summer or this is going to be another horrible team.

    I like going the trade route for Vlasic who is excellent by any measure you can think of.

    In non Ryan Suter, UFA land,

    I like a lot:
    Barrett Jackman
    Matt Carle

    I like at the right price

    Jason Garrison
    Carlo Colaiavaco
    Greg Zanon
    Jeff Woywitka
    Milan Jurcina

    I don’t like (relative to what they’ll get)

    Dennis Wideman

  148. Captain Obvious says:

    If we want to replace Hemsky through free agency that means signing either Parise or Grabovski. However, neither of those things are going to happen.

    If I wanted to sneak a player in there to maybe replace his production on a shorter term deal I’d be looking at Jiri Hudler or PA Parenteau.

    If I’m looking for guys that might cost less Paul Gaustad, Lee Stempniak, and Dustin Penner look good to me.

    I also wouldn’t get too excited by the three year deal talk. I’d love for it to be true but I don’t see it happening.

  149. Rebilled says:

    30th, 30th, and 29th.

    I thought I saw Hemsky as gone but maybe Tamby wants to keep his job. It appeases most of the fanbase and shows he signs one contract ‘moving forward with a veteran presence’.

    Or does Tamby keep his job because he trades Hemsky for peanuts.

    MacKinnon in 2013. Maybe we trade our 2012 pick?

  150. Brett Gee says:

    The thing about Hemsky is that he’s an injury risk. The thing about that is that everyone is an injury risk. Stop over thinking “what might happen” and forge ahead into the destiny that YOU create. Some lessons learned from the Terminator and Back to the Future movies;)

    This management does too many preventative things instead of being proactive in creating a good team.

    This coaching staff does the same thing. They send out Horcoff and crew to fend off the Sedin attack without thinking of trying to make an attack of their own. That strategy hasn’t worked over the 5 years that they’ve been trying it.

    SIgn the man, 3 or 4 years, whatever, and don’t worry about things that you can’t control. Worry about the things that you can.

  151. stevezie says:

    To be honest, I’m not sure where this 5×5.5 talk is coming from. Maybe that’s what his opening offer was, but certainly not because he thought he’d get it. Didn’t Krejci, coming off a season where he lead the cup-winning team in playoff scoring, just sign a 3×5.25 deal, and weren’t some people calling it an overpay? How does Hemsky, coming off arguably the worst season of his career, get more than Krejci?
    I’m sure Ales will want a raise, and he deserves one, but I see Krejci as his absolute ceiling. I actually think Hemsky is a better player, but he’s got to realize there’s a cost to two injury riddled seasons and a third statistical disappointment.
    We’ll see how negotiations shake out, but if he gets the oilers up to 3×5 I think he should take it. With Parise, Grabovski, Carter and Nash being all being somewhat available I don’t think this is a great summer to be Ales Hemsky.

  152. hags9k says:

    Last year during the Hemsky rumours I was mentioning Ellis and got shot down hard. Unproven, small, not even close to a good return on 83 etc. Now a year later Matheson is referring to him as Nashville’s golden boy, and the concensus seems to be an 83 rental isn’t enough and all we hear is Blum, Blum, Blum. Ahhrg!
    I hope we can still pry him outta there somehow but…..without seeing Murray play it sounds like he would be of a similar style and quality to Ellis anyway. If not better. I sure hope he is NHL ready next fall, assuming he is our pick of course.
    GOILERS

  153. Doogie2K says:

    Has the volume of silly arguments really gone up around here, or am I just noticing them more?

    I mean, we’ve got lovely present bias here, where posters are suggesting that the outlier year in terms of production rates is what we’re to expect going forward, while completely discounting that he’s maintained his production even in other injury-shortened years, against top competition (and that other players have come back from bum shoulders just fine). There’s also the attendant accusations of “hiding” his injury status, because all these pro-Hemsky posts have clearly pretended that the last three years never happened, what with suggestions of front-loading, reduced term, and burying the deal in the minors if things really go tits-up.

    We’ve got Traktor wheeling out the tired old Horcoff canard. Yes, we get it, management panicked after the Smyth fiasco, paid for a career year, and now Horcoff can’t cover the bet. Of course, maybe if management hadn’t taken away the very centre depth that allowed him to be put in offensive positions in the first place (trading Stoll and Brodziak and releasing Reasoner within twelve months), we might be singing a different tune; at the very least, he’s not playing with POS and JFJ with two bum shoulders a couple of years ago. But hey, what’s done is done, right? That doesn’t mean Hemsky is a bad bet, per se: they’re completely different players. Every negotiation should be treated as the unique situation that it is. (Then Hunter chimes in, late thread, and accuses everyone of also ignoring the effects of the Khabibulin contract. Because he evidently hasn’t read anything on Oilers blogs the last three years.)

    We’ve got the “you need a hobby/girlfriend/vacation” thing, which seems dangerously close to ad hominem, and putting words in people’s mouths, which is always good for the ol’ blood pressure.

    We’ve got the “no championships” argument, which is on the short list of stupidest arguments in all of sports. Because, you know, team stats are eminently relevant to individual talent. And then we’ve got GWG and OTG, which belongs on that same short list, because getting awarded a GWG is frequently a crapshoot – sometimes it’s a tiebreaker, but just as often, it’s scored entirely out of sequence with the final score, e.g., the 4-1 goal in a 5-3 win – and OTG are such a small sample as to be irrelevant.

    We’ve got people forgetting that Edmonton always has to overpay for free agents, because they’ve been mediocre to terrible for most of my life (currently on the far left end of the bell curve), and no one signs near market value for shit teams unless the weather is amazing and they’re past giving a crap about everything else. No one’s going to sign here, and no one’s going to trade a star here for spare parts from the worst franchise in the NHL since the lockout, either. Sign the guys you’ve got, or spend the next half-decade as a farm team for the rest of the NHL. Again.

    We’ve got irrelevant comparisons to much older, less productive, or generally worse players.

    And on it goes.

    Some people deserve the team that they’re getting, clearly.

Leave a Reply

Want to join the discussion?
Feel free to contribute!

Leave a Reply

© Copyright - Lowetide.ca