G52 Red Wings at Oilers

Every great team since 1967 spring can point to the draft as a major source of raw materials for their dynasty. NHL teams figured out the importance of the draft long ago, but it doesn’t always work; sometimes the light switch does nothing when engaged, sometimes the tumblers don’t tumble, sometimes there’s a friggin’ in the riggin’.

Most often, the rebuild takes much longer than expected.

Marcel Dionne was an exceptional young player in the spring of 1971. Scouts had Dionne and Guy Lafleur graded out as the top amateurs in the land, and when the Red Wings called his name in 1971 it should have been the beginning of a run to glory. Things started out well enough, Gordie Howe nicknamed him “Little Beaver” and early on it became obvious Dionne would be a prolific scorer in the NHL.

That was 1971-72. Just a few short years later, Dionne forced his way out of Detroit. The story is long, so it comes in bits:

If you click on the first one, you can read the entire story. Bottom line for Detroit: in his 4 seasons there, Dionne’s coaches were Johnny Wilson, Ted Garvin, Alex Delvecchio and Doug Barkley. The worst GM in NHL history presided over the mess and is got so bad Gordie retired, Dionne walked and darkness fell over Hockeytown.

This isn’t darkness with Harkness, but if the Oilers don’t start winning games consistently and pushing for the playoffs then bad things will happen. Not signing Ales Hemsky doesn’t do the 12-13 Oilers any favors, and trading him for picks and prospects means you are moving back the wins again. At some point, teenagers grow into young men and agents have the long term view for their clients.

The Edmonton Oilers are owned by Darryl Katz, relatively new to the franchise running industry and sure to make a few missteps along the way. The Dustin Penner trade a year ago meant Oscar Klefbom was an Oiler and someday he can help. However, should the Oilers deal Ales Hemsky for picks and prospects, I think we can begin to ask some questions that will be uncomfortable.

Questions like “how many years will Taylor Hall and Oscar Klefbom be on the same team?”

Despite what Alex Delvecchio said in that 37-year old article posted, Marcel Dionne didn’t leave for dollars, it wasn’t about the money. It was about survival: sooner or later things have to get better or the frustration becomes too much. Ask Marcel Dionne, ask Rick Nash.

Ask Papillon.

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414 Responses to "G52 Red Wings at Oilers"

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  1. dohfOs says:

    Howard out, Conklin in. That’s a good start..

  2. godot10 says:

    As somebody pointed out in the last thread, do you want your supposed team leader and core player being the first one off at practice? Doing the absolute minimum? Not spending extra time trying to get better, working on weaknesses in your game, or trying to develop new components to your game?

    Scotty Bowman had to read Steve Yzerman the riot act. He had to hang the implied threat of a trade to the pathetic Ottawa Senators to make Yzerman change his game.

    Free agency was much more limited then. Bowman could make a credible threat. Today, a player has to change themselves.

    Will Hemsky be the first Oiler off the practice ice today?

  3. danny says:

    Things aren’t always linear, nor black and white.

    I’d find much more anger inside me if EDM were letting a 27yr old top 3 dman walk.

    Trading Hemsky does the following:
    - loses an established NHLer from a roster that needs them
    - loses an excellent talent for future hopefuls
    - adds a prospect and pick(s) in a deep D draft
    - opens up $5M in salary, which can be used for a top pairing D
    - relinquishes an injury prone player from a roster with too many injury prone players.

    It’s the same old story, I’d be much more comfortable letting Hemsky go and spending it on the D, but I have so little faith in management that fear of the unknown makes you want to cling dearly onto talent not easily replaced.

    I just caught the end of Flyers/Rangers 24/7… Man if you didn’t love hockey before, watching the game unfold with inside access like that will concrete that love.

    One thing that really resonated with me was the approach from the coaches. Torts and laviolette are probably not your average coach, but the way they challenged and demanded the players efforts was in stark contrast to the philosophical pillow talk that Renney employs.

  4. bookje says:

    Does anyone have any OOLP advanced stats , that is, Order Of Leaving Practice? It seems to be an important stat.

    I am also looking for the ARTOOLP stat regarding this site. That is the Asinine References To Order Of Leaving Practice.

  5. Lowetide says:

    I think a better stat would be counting “calls from Steve” to each player.

  6. Mr DeBakey says:

    Will Hemsky be the first Oiler off the practice ice today?

    Who gives a Fuck?

    Seriously.

  7. bookje says:

    I heard that all Hemsky does is drink beer, eat natchos, and make comments on Internet blogs!

    Oh, wait, maybe I am thinking of someone else…

  8. Lowetide says:

    booje: lol.

  9. Bos8 says:

    Hemsky trade – I have strong feelings both ways.

    I’m still beating the “Whitney is skating pain free” drum.

    The fall down giggling like a little girl drum “Nuge, Hemsky and Horcoff. Two of the greatest passers ever, on the Oilers and Horcoff as the finisher”

    As Conan said to Hugh Grant “What were you thinking?”

  10. "Steve Smith" says:

    bookje,

    Ales Hemsky lives in my mother’s basement.

  11. OilClog says:

    they’re might be a bright side to the hemsky saga with this game.. we can easily all imagine what he’s going to look like in a detriot uni tonight..

    Here’s a better idea then shipping Hemmer out and spending his money on D.. How about we ship Khabby out and spend his money on D??? 27yr old forward with lots of future potential.. or 39yr old goalie with his down payment on his retirement home already.

  12. danny says:

    Bos8

    As Conan said to Hugh Grant “What were you thinking?”

    That was Leno. He was losing the ratings war with Letterman, that interview changed everything.

  13. Traktor says:

    299 NHL players have more goals than Hemsky. A few notables: Brad Winchester, Jordan Tootoo, Jamal Mayers, and Ben Eager

    In other news, according to the rumor heavyweights Detroit is no longer interested in Hemsky.

    I wonder why?

  14. OilClog says:

    Bos8,

    funny.. but.. if nuge and horc are on the ice together who’s playing where? we all know Hemsky’s screaming as horc stumbles over the blue line battling memories of being out muscled infront of his own net by a guy named burrows.

  15. Woodguy says:

    …a comment was made to him that Detroit had only four or five players of proven NHL caliber. He agreed

    Apparently there is nothing new under the Sun.

    I wonder if we’ll read the same quote from 14,93, or 4 if the team around them continues to not be NHL caliber?

    do you want your supposed team leader and core player being the first one off at practice? Doing the absolute minimum? Not spending extra time trying to get better, working on weaknesses in your game, or trying to develop new components to your game?

    Why is everyone thrusting leadership on Hemsky? Because of his age? While leadership ability may increase with age, you don’t just thrust it on someone.

    Why can’t he just be a 0.79pts/gm hockey player and one of two Oilers who can outscore tough competition?

    Once they punt Hemsky, only Hall remains.

    Eberle, a sublime offensive talent and an allstar, is getting there, but he’s very leaky in terms of chances against.

    Horcoff has lost the legs that allowed him to do it, (as well as the line mates that enabled him to do it)

    RNH is years away from being able to do it.

    Getting rid of good hockey players makes your team worse.

    Full Stop.

    Yesterday in an awesome exchange on the Jason Gregor show, Gregor and Ryan RIsaugh got into it over Hemsky. (Gregor’s beliefs are similar to mine, Risaugh’s similar to Godot’s).

    One thing Risaugh said pissed me off more than anything else.

    He mentioned that maybe the don’t want to risk the $ on Hemsky because Hall and Eberle need to be paid after next year.

    2 years ago a number were screaming about how good these kids were and if you wanted to actually follow the Chicago model, you needed to surround them with talent before their 2nd contract (1st of 3 windows with these kids)

    Now it looks like 4, 14, and probably 93′s ELC will burn away without one playoff game.

    That’s a managerial disaster.

    Pushing back the timeline of making the playoffs by trading proven NHLers like Penner and Hemsky risks poisoning the pool far more than a trivial thing like Hemsky not liking practicing after practice.

    One of the morning show idiots on Team 1260 referred to Hemsky as the Allan Iverson of the NHL yesterday.

    Really??

    Pathetic.

    The MSM and a lot of fans in this city deserves to watch these kids grow up and, like Dionne, demand to get out because management is too incompetent to put NHL caliber players around them.

    This team loses because the management doesn’t know how to acquire NHL caliber players. In fact they insist on trading them away which will probably result in at least 7 years out of the playoffs, maybe eight.

    That’s poisoning the well.

    That’s lack of leadership.

    That’s the management team of your Edmonton Oilers.

  16. Bos8 says:

    danny: That was Leno. He was losing the ratings war with Letterman, that interview changed everything

    You’re right. My apologies to all. Either a blonde moment or advancing senility.

    I actually watched the show by some strange accident. Give him credit, Grant took it like a man. What was hilarious, was who he was cheating on..

    However, that was an instant classic.

  17. pboy says:

    danny: That was Leno. He was losing the ratings war with Letterman, that interview changed everything.

    Have you read The War For Late Night by Bill Carter? It’s really good and it gets in to all of that.

    That SI article LT referenced was a good read. Harkness was such a terrible coach, they made him the GM. Good Lord.

  18. Ribs says:

    Taylor Hall on After Hours tonight. Should be worth a giggle or two.

    …And um… please don’t trade Hemsky.

  19. Lowetide says:

    Hall with Oake. Beauty. “Taylor, I drove over to the University of Alberta and asked 100 young ladies to look at this photo of the scar on your forehead. 67 of them would still date you, and three felt you might want to even it out on the other side. What’s your reaction to that?”

  20. Traktor says:

    The scary thing about WG’s post is I think he actually believes most of what he is saying.

  21. "Steve Smith" says:

    Traktor,

    I’m heartened by the fact that that’s apparently a foreign concept to you.

  22. Nessler37 says:

    Hemsky has been one of the lone bright spots worth watching in previous years,but he’s not been the same player this year. In watching older games that I have PVR’d, the big difference I noticed is his compete level when he doesn’t have the puck, even when he was playing with the injured shoulders, he was more determined in getting the puck back. It’s too bad he’s going to be gone soon, he’s been a very good Oiler to watch, and scored some very memorable goals, especially in the 05-06 season.

  23. Ribs says:

    That’s Taylor Hall ALONG with Steve Tambellini with Oake.

  24. Traktor says:

    “Steve Smith”:
    Traktor,

    I’m heartened by the fact that that’s apparently a foreign concept to you.

    It seems most of my concepts are foreign as I speak outside the echo chamber.

  25. Ribs says:

    …Did’nt WG have some questions for oake to ask Tambellini? Now’s your chance…Taking questions at @ScottOake

  26. Woodguy says:

    There are 3 separate time lines with 4,14,93

    1) ELC – Combined cap hit – $8.7MM

    2) 2nd contract – My crystal ball says combined cap hit – $16MM

    3) 3rd contract with some UFA years – My crystal ball is murkier, but I guess combined cap hit $21MM

    The Oilers may go the Chicago way and make the 2nd contract the one with UFA years. (Toews and Kane are under contract for only 3 more years after this one. Toews will be 27 and Kane 26 when they go UFA.)

    The cap will go up over this time, but the point is clear.

    The widest window is when the kids are cheap.

    Those years have been pissed away.

    Oiler management is acting like they have a decade to get this right.

    They don’t.

    Ask Bowman how he feels about only having Kane Toews for 3 more years.

    At least they won the cup.

    Oilers will get close to losing, or actually lose, one or more of these kids without getting a sniff at the cup if management continues on their sloth-like progression.

    Oscar Klefbom might be a good player in the future but Hall will probably be at least 25 years old before Klefbom, assuming dozens of variables fall right, will be someone who can play tough competition and come out ahead.

  27. Ribs says:

    I’m still confused by the edit button…Sometimes it’s there…Sometimes it’s not.

  28. "Steve Smith" says:

    Traktor,

    I speak outside the echo chamber.

    So does this guy.

  29. Woodguy says:

    Traktor:
    The scary thing about WG’s post is I think he actually believes most of what he is saying.

    You’ll be fine Traktor.

    There is going to be lots of poor players on the Oilers to bitch about for years to come.

    That seems to be what you are best at.

  30. OilClog says:

    Tambi’s probably joining him so he can make sure Hall isn’t asked about the coach.

  31. Woodguy says:

    Traktor: It seems most of my concepts are foreign as I speak outside the echo chamber.

    Which concepts are those?

    I’m seriously asking.

    You don’t seem to ever put forward an ideas, you just deride the ideas of others.

    You like to tear things down, but I don’t see you try to build anything.

    So, what would you do?

  32. Gret99zky says:

    Has anyone considered that maybe Hemsky is asking for a 4 year $24 million contract? Or somewhere in that neighbourhood. That maybe it’s not as easy as “just signing him”?

  33. bookje says:

    “Steve Smith”:
    bookje,

    Ales Hemsky lives in my mother’s basement.

    Steve – I laughed so hard at that – I almost spilled my beer all over my Natchos.

  34. oilersfan says:

    No oilersnation radiotoday 12:13:43 PM? I am listening to the team and espn radio is on talking supberbowl.

  35. Woodguy says:

    Traktor:
    299 NHL players have more goals than Hemsky. A few notables: Brad Winchester, Jordan Tootoo, Jamal Mayers, and Ben Eager

    In other news, according to the rumor heavyweights Detroit is no longer interested in Hemsky.

    I wonder why?

    Mike Richards has less points than Sam Gagner.

    Using your logic, Sam Gagner is a better NHL Center than Mike Richards.

    Ryan Getzlaf’s pts/gm is .686
    Sam Gagner pts/gm is .681

    Using your logic, Ryan Getzlaf = Sam Gagner.

    Are you sure you believe what you write?

  36. Traktor says:

    WG:

    One of the things I would have done is trade for Lucic after his 20 point season. Remember me suggesting that?

    And remember you said he has the worst contract in the league so I’m sure I would have aquired him for next to nothing.

  37. Woodguy says:

    "Steve Smith":
    Traktor,

    So does this guy.

    I’m slightly disturbed that you had the web address of Time Cube so handy.

  38. "Steve Smith" says:

    Woodguy,

    I read a verse from it every morning before work. It gets me through the day.

  39. Woodguy says:

    Traktor:
    WG:

    One of the things I would have done is trade for Lucic after his 20 point season. Remember me suggesting that?

    And remember you said he has the worst contract in the league so I’m sure I would have aquired him for next to nothing.

    I agree that the Oilers need to get bigger up front, but not at the expense of sending away smaller players for nothing.

    The year after I said Lucic was a terrible overpay he scored 20pts in 50gms.

    You said nothing then.

    It took you almost 2 years to bring it up again.

    My contention was that Lucic doesn’t drive the play himself, but works well IF he plays with all stars.

    I was right.

    I disagree that you pay that type of player $4M/yr.

    He’s not as big an overpay as I thought, I’ll admit to that.

  40. Bos8 says:

    Woodguy is a Goodguy. Thank you. When you’re right, you’re right.

    One hopes that they’ll eventually stumble into a corner man for Nuge and Eberle. It doesn’t count now, so throw Eager up there, just because.

    Keep a second line with Hall, Hemsky and Gagner.

    If they are going to trade Hemsky – Get a big, good skating winger, a kid that’s ready.

  41. Lowetide says:

    oilersfan,

    Yeah, took this week off. No worries, “we’ll be back.”

  42. Ribs says:

    JF Jacques has to be ready by now. DO IT.

  43. "Steve Smith" says:

    The scary thing about Bos8′s post is I think he actually believes most of what WoodGuy is saying.

  44. Ribs says:

    Everything in the North America is cancelled due to the Superbowl. Every year.

  45. godot10 says:

    //Why is everyone thrusting leadership on Hemsky? Because of his age? While leadership ability may increase with age, you don’t just thrust it on someone.//

    Because he undoubtedly is going to ask to be paid like a leader.

    I know Hemsky probably doesn’t think leading is part of his job, just like he doesn’t think that actually scoring goals is actually part of his job too.

    An 18-year old kid has the Oilers PP in the top 5. Under Hemsky, the Oilers have rarely had a power play ranked in the top 15, much less top 5. With the same personnel last year, it was bottom 5.

    So he doesn’t lead. He doesn’t contribute to team power play success. He doesn’t score goals. He does the minimum required at practice. He doesn’t seem all that perturbed that the young guys are earning away the premium ice time. But he probably wants an elite player’s salary.

    Is he a core guy?

    If I am GM, I can find a 2nd line right wing that scores more goals, is more physical (Eberle is small) and is a better checker for less money in the medium to long term.

    Short term, one year, $5.5 million…is fine by me. Medium to long term is nuts.

  46. Ribs says:

    What do you mean, Godot? Hemksy leads his team off of the ice after every practice!

  47. Bos8 says:

    The scary thing about Bos8′s post is I think he actually believes most of what WoodGuy is saying.

    Yep, Woodguy’s number one fan.

    “The measure of other peoples’ intelligence is how much they agree with you”

  48. Bos8 says:

    Ribs: What do you mean, Godot? Hemksy leads his team off of the ice after every practice!

    Damn, now I’ll have to split the adulation.

    Damn, these guys are sharp.

    (Starts digging in the cluttery tray for the stropping belt)

  49. maudite says:

    Ales Hemsky slept with Mike Vernon’s wife and has produced 2 more bastard children than Jason Arnott.

  50. Traktor says:

    I was also advocating last year that we should trade Gagner and Hemsky in an effort to draft Sean Couturier.

    He averages the 2nd most forward PK time on the Flyers and has the 3rd best +/- on the team at +13. He is on pace for 17 goals despite playing just over 13 minutes per game with very little PP time.

    Basically he is exactly the type of player you want playing behind RNH.

  51. Woodguy says:

    Because he undoubtedly is going to ask to be paid like a leader.

    I thought pay scale was related to results?

    Dustin Brown is a key leader for the Kings and makes $3.175. Should he have held out for more since he’s a leader?

    He’s probably slightly overpaid due to his leadership.

    Perhaps you can slightly underpay Hemsky for the lack of leadership.

    The New York Rangers are in 2nd place in the entire NHL.

    Their highest salaried player is Gaborik.

    He wears neither and A nor C.

    I think you should start trolling NYR boards and deride Gaborik for his lack of leadership.

    I bet he leaves the ice after practice too.

  52. Woodguy says:

    Traktor:
    I was also advocating last year that we should trade Gagner and Hemsky in an effort to draft Sean Couturier.

    He averages the 2nd most forward PK time on the Flyers and has the 3rd best +/- on the team at +13. He is on pace for 17 goals despite only playing just over 13 minutes per game with very little PP time.

    Basically he is exactly the type of player you want playing behind RNH.

    Sure, a good idea in hindsight, but not guaranteed you could actually make that trade.

    v3.2 offered Hemsky and Eberle for the 2nd pick in 2010 (Seguin) and didn’t get a bite.

    Philly didn’t need to add salary after adding the ENORMOUS HUMONGOUS salary of Bryz.

  53. maudite says:

    godot10: //Why is everyone thrusting leadership on Hemsky? Because of his age? While leadership ability may increase with age, you don’t just thrust it on someone.//Because he undoubtedly is going to ask to be paid like a leader.I know Hemsky probably doesn’t think leading is part of his job, just like he doesn’t think that actually scoring goals is actually part of his job too.An 18-year old kid has the Oilers PP in the top 5. Under Hemsky, the Oilers have rarely had a power play ranked in the top 15, much less top 5. With the same personnel last year, it was bottom 5.So he doesn’t lead. He doesn’t contribute to team power play success. He doesn’t score goals. He does the minimum required at practice. He doesn’t seem all that perturbed that the young guys are earning away the premium ice time. But he probably wants an elite player’s salary.Is he a core guy?If I am GM, I can find a 2nd line right wing that scores more goals, is more physical (Eberle is small) and is a better checker for less money in the medium to long term.Short term, one year, $5.5 million…is fine by me. Medium to long term is nuts.

    Uhmm conjucture anyone? I’m not a lawyer but there are some pretty large leaps between fact and logic in this baby.

  54. Marc says:

    Woodguy

    How many key players did Boston have on ELCs last year? Or Vancouver? Or Philly when they made the finals? Or Detroit? Making a run to the Cup with your core players on ELCs is one way to do it, but it’s not the only way.

    The cap ‘savings’ of players outperforming an ELC are only realised if their team spends to the cap. But spending to the cap when you have core players on ELCs that will need big raises in a year or two brings problems of its own, as cap space has to be cleared for those raise. Chicago ended up giving away a bunch of useful players after their Cup run and haven’t been close to as good of a team since.

    I’m not convinced that this is even a good model of cap management, let alone one that you can excoriate management as idiots for not following.

  55. Traktor says:

    Woodguy:
    Philly didn’t need to add salary after adding the ENORMOUS HUMONGOUS salary of Bryz.

    This was before Philadelphia even acquired Columbus’ pick.

    Ottawa, NYI and Winnipeg were other options. Garth Snow was rumored to be shopping the pick for an established young player and Gagner fits that fold.

  56. Woodguy says:

    Here something that was a little lost in Gagner’s big night.

    Top 7 Blackhawks that Gagner and Hemsky played against that night using TOI (excluding goalies) and their +/-

    Gagner:

    Shaw 7.4 -3
    Bolland 7.3 -3
    Keith 7.1 0
    Kruger 7.0 -1
    Seabrook 5.3 -2
    Leddy 5.1 -3
    Hjalmarsson 3.3 -2

    Hemsky:

    Keith 7.0 0
    Toews 6.7 0
    Kane 6.7 0
    Seabrook 6.7 -2
    Stalberg 5.5 -1
    Sharp 4.1 -1
    Hjalmarsson 2.5 -2

    One of the ways the kids have been sheltered this year is the fact that opposing coaches send out their best D against Hemsky.

    At home, he’ll generally draw the best opposition tough forwards too.

    I looked at the Head to Head TOI at the games since Hemsky came back from injury and every game except 1 (Calgary), opposing coaches put their top pairing out against Hemsky, leaving the combo of Hall, Eberle, RNH to face 2nd or even 3rd pairing most of the time.

    Once you get rid of Hemsky, opposing coaches have exactly one line to concentrate on. (unless Renney goes with 93-14 on one line and 4-89 on another)

    Hemsky’s presence gives the kids much easier ice to play on.

    Once he’s gone, it will be much tougher sledding.

  57. maudite says:

    Marc,

    Woodguy,

    You have to give him this. The management and their paid for talking mouth no longer refer to Detroit….no Chicago….as a model anymore. Granted the last known model these geniuses were trumpeting was Chicago. One must assume that is no longer the case as neither won the cup last year. Going by the past one must infer that we now must look at the Bruins as our go forward model or (even more frightenting) trust that the others ‘model’ is going according to whatever plan it is they have.

  58. Traktor says:

    I also would have never signed Horcoff to that absurd contract and would have attempted to trade him to Montreal when they were rumored to be interested in Gomez and Horcoff.

    I would trade Horcoff for Gomez right now and bury Gomez in the minors. Both players have NTC’s (Gomez can list 3 teams he wouldn’t accept a trade to) but I think both players would welcome change and a fresh start. I would try for Gomez + high draft pick but would settle for a straight up swap.

    I would also propose a Komi/Horcoff swap.

  59. Woodguy says:

    It will be interesting to see who Lidstrom it put out against tonight.

    Last time it was Hemsky.

    If I was Babcock, I’d send him out against 4,89,14

  60. Rondo says:

    LT,

    If these trades were possible would you make them ?

    Sam Gagner for Martin Hanzal

    Ales Hemsky for Nikolai Kulemin

  61. cabbiesmacker says:

    All I want is Oake’s first question for Hall to be,

    “So Tyler, why were you so upset with your coach pulling the goalie when the guy sitting to your right has been pulling his for two years?”

    The biggest argument for not trading Hemsky might just be the return he’d garner. I mean whats the point? All I’d like to know is if theres been an offer and if so the terms? If he’s asking for a raise then adios but like others have said here, I don’t have any confidence the Oilers can attract a suitable replacement with the money saved.

  62. cabbiesmacker says:

    Woodguy,

    Are you Vic F? He’s a wood guy too no?

  63. cabbiesmacker says:

    Rondo,

    No to #1 and Burke doesn’t go there with #2.

    A tougher one might be would we trade Gagner for the right to negotiate with Suter?

  64. Woodguy says:

    Traktor:
    I also would have never signed Horcoff to that absurd contract and would have attempted to trade him to Montreal when they were rumored to be interested in Gomez and Horcoff.

    I would trade Horcoff for Gomez right now and bury Gomez in the minors. Both players have NTC’s (Gomez can list 3 teams he wouldn’t accept a trade to) but I think both players would welcome change and a fresh start. I would try for Gomez + high draft pick but would settle for a straight up swap.

    I would also propose a Komi/Horcoff swap.

    When Horcoff got his contract he was outscoring toughs and was scoring almost 1pt/gm. He played in the allstar game (where he got a season ending and career altering shoulder injury)

    Not signing Horcoff would have been dumb.

    Giving him the $ and term they did is debatable here with almost 5 years of hindsight.

    He certainly never had a season like his 07/08 season again.

    I also don’t think MTL trades Gomez straight up for Horcoff. Nor am I sure Horcoff agrees to go. He has a NMC until the end of 12/13 season.

  65. Woodguy says:

    cabbiesmacker:
    Woodguy,

    Are you Vic F? He’s a wood guy too no?

    I’m not Vic.

    Not even close.

    He’s arguable the most significant pioneer in the advanced hockey stats.

    He and Gabriel Desjardins are pretty brilliant people.

    I wish Vic were around more.

  66. Woodguy says:

    maudite:
    Marc,

    Woodguy,

    You have to give him this.The management and their paid for talking mouth no longer refer to Detroit….no Chicago….as a model anymore.Granted the last known model these geniuses were trumpeting was Chicago.One must assume that is no longer the case as neither won the cup last year.Going by the past one must infer that we now must look at the Bruins as our go forward model or (even more frightenting) trust that the others ‘model’ is going according to whatever plan it is they have.

    I have no confidence that the Oiler management actually knows what they are doing.

    Putting mostly AHL Dmen behind these high end kids is pretty damning evidence of that.

  67. Bos8 says:

    To my mind a good GM would have extended Hemsky for a year to buy time re kids and injury issues. All this analysis paralysis does, is piss people off and diminish returns.

    Likely – More magic beans and time lost

    Teubert and Klebom might be something three years down the road and a Hemsky trade doesn’t get that much.

    Meanwhile the Oilers are sucking slough water.

  68. Lowetide says:

    Rondo: Great questions. I would consider both deals and really like both players. Hmmm. Is this a trick question, is someone injured?

    You’re giving up offense in Gagner but with Hanzal you have a bull for the tough minutes line, allowing the touched by God trio to romp in the high cotton.

    Hmmm.

  69. cabbiesmacker says:

    Woodguy:
    There are 3 separate time lines with 4,14,93

    1)ELC – Combined cap hit – $8.7MM

    2) 2nd contract – My crystal ball says combined cap hit – $16MM

    The Oilers may go the Chicago way and make the 2nd contract the one with UFA years. (Toews and Kane are under contract for only 3 more years after this one. Toews will be 27 and Kane 26 when they go UFA.)

    The cap will go up over this time, but the point is clear.

    The widest window is when the kids are cheap.

    Those years have been pissed away.

    Ask Bowman how he feels about only having Kane Toews for 3 more years.

    At least they won the cup.

    Oilers will get close to losing, or actually lose, one or more of these kids without getting a sniff at the cup if management continues on their sloth-like progression.

    Oscar Klefbom might be a good player in the future but Hall will probably be at least 25 years old before Klefbom, assuming dozens of variables fall right,will be someone who can play tough competition and come out ahead.

    You are quite right here WG, and ffs Lowe should know how it’s done being that he had a front row seat on a team built similarly to the 09-10 Blackhawks. You have to have good players of similar ages meshing at the right time.

    We all know the Oiler version. The Hawks complimented their big 4, JT, PK, DK, and BS with Byfuglien, Ladd, Versteeg, Sharp, Brouwer, Hjalmarsson, and Bolland, and then added a kinda decent 2 way guy in Hossa, (sarcasm off), contract aside. Some drafted – some traded for. Might only have been a one year celebration but I’d take that right now thank you very much.

    ST needs to be busy on the 21 – 24 year old age front. F the whale hunting. F the top 3 OV picks, we’ve had enough of those now. I’d be dangling any F outside of our supernova kids AND our #1 this year to get more players of this ilk or you are probably correct…we’ll lose one or two of them. It’s a small window in the new NHL.

  70. Gerta Rauss says:

    Lineup per Gregor-nice to see Dubnyk starting again.
    Ted starts between Hemsky and Horcoff..I wonder if Horc will be taking the draws.
    Apparently Gilbert is hoping to start Mon in Toronot.

    Hall – Gagner – Eberle
    Horcoff – RNH – Hemsky
    Smyth – Belanger – Jones
    Eager – Lander – Petrell

    Smid – Petry
    Whitney – Potter
    Barker – Sutton

    Dubnyk

  71. Lowetide says:

    I’d move Smyth up with 93 and 83. The 4th line needs to play more minutes late in the periods and especially the shift after an Oiler powerplay. Best v best BABY!

  72. Ducey says:

    I’d agree with Woodguy if Hemsky was on track for career norms. The fact that he is struggling in the results and effort categories makes it tough to know what he will do in the future.

    The Oilers could sign Hemsky for a year only to have him stink / get inured again – further eroding his value. They could sign him longterm only to have Horcoff v. 2.

    Or he could get 70 pts next year.

    It’s a tough call. I expect most employers would make it based on their assessment of the trust they have in the employee. That trust doesn’t seem to be there.

  73. Traktor says:

    Horcoff had two good seasons.

    The first was an anomaly league-wide because of all the rule changes . Cheechoo scored 56 that year.. Gionta scored 48.

    The second was less credible because he missed 35% of the season and had a 19% shooting percentage.

    I wouldn’t have signed Horcoff to that contract (especially after season ending surgery) and Woodguy would have. That’s kind of my point.

    As for Horcoff taking on the tough minutes, Stoll, Peca and Reasoner might have something to say about that.

  74. Marc says:

    Giving him the $ and term they did is debatable here with almost 5 years of hindsight.

    This is, I think, many people’s (or at least my) concern about re-signing Hemsky. He’s on pace for 36 points this year and has 42 and 22 points in the two seasons before this one. He may have got those points against tough opposition, but that is nowhere near the production you expect and need from a player earning $4.1M per season.

    LT recently posted stats that show his PP production has declined for six straight seasons. He doesn’t kill penalties and he not known as a leader in the dressing room. His last good season was 2008/9 and that year he got half of his 66 points on the PP, something that we just can’t count on going forward, given that he was the Oiler top PP forward then, whereas now he has at least 3 forwards ahead of him in the pecking order, and a couple more if you count the Horcoff/Smyth screening role. Hemsky not only hasn’t earned raise on his current contract, he hasn’t lived up to it for three straight years now.

    A team, especially a team that knows it needs to give a bunch of young players raises in a couple years, has to tread very carefully with a contract like this. I’d be happy to see him get $3M per year for no more than three years. Anything more than that and he’s getting paid for for what he did 3+ years ago, when his role on the team, and in particular on the PP, was very different than it will be going forward.

  75. DeadmanWaking says:

    In the Leadership/Change literature (admittedly a tainted genre) there is always a Woodguy character. He’s one of your sharpest and most driven employees, the guy who knows how to move the puck in the right direction. Just parachute him into a situation where winning is on the table, add water, and stir. Instant results.

    However, this literature is not written about organizations where winning is on the table. It’s usually written about organizations that are three exorcisms shy of having winning on the table. It’s just an unfortunate reality in life that sometimes organizations (and relationships) get to where doing what always works no longer works.

    If we were doing a single bypass, Woodguy is probably right. Woodguy might ask, “why the hell did we wait until we needed a quadruple bypass to do something about the problem?” Good question. One of the reasons is that the EIG decided to conserve cash by living off high-fructose-corn-syrup and soy products so that they could continue to make lease payments on the car that gets them to work on time. The underlying metabolic health of the procurement pipeline was not what it should have been.

    Given the poor systemic nutritional state, I don’t think our Nuglet ELC window was just a few good management decisions short of real potential. Greens and Greens and booster-spice take a while to penetrate into the system.

    One of the big problems in the change literature is that it’s hard to rally the troops around underlying change when you’re still far from delivering top line results. This is how you get companies that burn through four or five excellent CEOs over a decade doing many of the right things, but actually going nowhere. The most driven employees, especially, tend not to buy in under they catch sight of vitamin Black.

    In my view, a three-window rebuild is something only a healthy organization can claim, based on a decade or more of investing in healthy foundations. Were we that organization coming into this? Not even close.

    I read that fat book about Lincoln a while back. Lincoln packed his cabinet with Woodguy types, then worked double-time to prevent them from going off half-baked. To summarize aggressively, at the outset every member of the cabinet thought they knew what needed to be done better than Lincoln. By the end of the civil war, most of them were quoted as saying, “actually, that country hick was one step ahead of me the whole time”. He was one of the greatest leaders of all time in nurturing the winning conditions, and he did it by surrounding himself with advisers who hated every minute of his dithering methods with every bone in their bodies. It grieved Lincoln, too. He didn’t just want to make the playoffs of preserving the American Union, it wanted to do it breaking the back of one man owning another, so that a Union restored could someday heal.

    The election of President Obama was not the end of racist in America. Some wounds run deeper than others.

    Woodguy believes in what he says because he’s right, only not yet.

  76. Woodguy says:

    Ducey:
    I’d agree with Woodguy if Hemsky was on track for career norms.The fact that he is struggling in the results and effort categories makes it tough to know what he will do in the future.

    The Oilers could sign Hemsky for a year only to have him stink / get inuredagain – further eroding his value.They could sign him longterm only to have Horcoff v. 2.

    Or he could get 70 pts next year.

    It’s a tough call.I expect most employers would make it based on their assessment of the trust they have in the employee.That trust doesn’t seem to be there.

    Hemsky is having a bad year.

    Hemsky is currently 69th among RW in terms of pts/60 (via BTN, some guys are missing. Eberle doesn’t show up for instance)

    Other RW’s not having good seasons:

    Perry 68th
    Setoguchi 64th
    Stafford 59th
    Heatley 56th
    Briere 54th
    Doan 53rd
    Kovalchuck 48th
    Nash 38th

    Should the teams who have all these players give up on them as well?

    Injury future for Hemsky is the big bogey, but I’m taking him saying he hasn’t felt this good in years at face value.

    In sports, more than in any other field, historical performance can be used to predict future performance.

    I’d guess all the players I listed above would improve on their numbers.

    Throwing away a player with a history of scoring points due to one bad year is simply short-sighted and terrible management.

  77. spoiler says:

    I wish Vic was around more too. Brilliant mind.

    I want to clarify, in light of some of the asinine comments above, that I am not advocating the Oil trade Hemsky with my attitude remark in the last thread. I am merely speculating as to why Tambo hasn’t offered a contract and wondering if there isn’t more to this issue than we see (but those around him every day–the team and management–do).

    And whether Hemsky is a leader or not is irrelevant. Whether he likes it or not, he provides an example to the kids.

    But whether these are really the reasons Tambo hasn’t offered a contract, and whether they are good or bad criteria is another argument, about which we have little to no information. We are all speculating.

    The lack of a contract offer might just be Tambo waiting to see if someone will offer him the world come deadline day. If no one does, maybe he puts the trigger away and signs him. We won’t know till this story plays itself out.

  78. Gret99zky says:

    Hemsky has been a good soldier for the team. Time to reward him for hanging in there. 4 years at $7 Million per seems fair. Get it done Tambi.

  79. Captain Obvious says:

    The best part of that exchange with Rishaug is how many times Rishaug used “body language” as a reason to get rid of Hemsky. If that is the best reason you can come up with it is a pretty good indication you have no idea what you are talking about. This team is never, ever going to win. Two first overall picks and Eberle isn’t enough if you lose all your other good players and never replace them. In the last two years the team has added no good players. There are no good players in OKC except for maybe Omark. Where are the players this team needs going to come from?

  80. Rondo says:

    The reason I mentioned Kulemin is his name came up in trade rumours onTSN

    Not a trick question and thank you for answering.

    I would do the trades in a heartbeat.

  81. LMHF#1 says:

    I thought they might run 10 out there on LW. He does some of his best work there and gets back to playing a speed game. Those guys should do well tonight.

  82. Lowetide says:

    Rondo: Yeah, they’ve even signed Hanzal for us and Kulemin is rfa I believe so maybe the Oilers could sign him at a discount. I’d have to bring out the slide rule and Yahtzee, but those are very interesting names.

  83. Smarmy says:

    Ales Hemsky ain’t what he used to be.

    We’ll have Hall, Hopkins, Eberle, Gagner (if he isn’t traded) Likely Grigorenko (unless they climb the standings a bit.

    We need more size in the top six. Even if that size doesn’t have a pile of skill.

    Bon voyage sweet prince.

  84. OilClog says:

    I don’t understand any reasoning to remove gagner or hemsky.. dumb. Almost as dumb as playing Horc and Nuge on the same line.. wtf. I’m surprised Teddy isn’t playing with them, makes about as much sense. haha.

  85. Lowetide says:

    I think the Hemsky is injured all the time argument is a consideration with regard to salary cap amount and length of contract. But he’s not 40 for crying out loud. His shoulders may end up coming back better than ever.

    I’d bet on him 10 times out of 10.

  86. Captain Obvious says:

    If you want a good laugh check out the comments on lowetide’s latest at oilersnation. I don’tknow how those people dress themselves. if the commentators there are representative then Edmonton fans are the dumbest fans on earth.

    In any case the answer is to have both Hemsky and Omark. Not one or the other. It hardly matters though because this time next year when the Oilers are out of the playoffs we’ll be having the same conversation.

  87. Bos8 says:

    Hanzal / Kulemin or someone of their stripe would be perfect as Nuge/Eberle linemates

  88. Woodguy says:

    Marc:
    Woodguy

    How many key players did Boston have on ELCs last year? Or Vancouver? Or Philly when they made the finals? Or Detroit? Making a run to the Cup with your core players on ELCs is one way to do it, but it’s not the only way.

    The cap ‘savings’ of players outperforming an ELC are only realised if their team spends to the cap.But spending to the cap when you have core players on ELCs that will need big raises in a year or two brings problems of its own, as cap space has to be cleared for those raise.Chicago ended up giving away a bunch of useful players after their Cup run and haven’t been close to as good of a team since.

    I’m not convinced that this is even a good model of cap management, let alone one that you can excoriate management as idiots for not following.

    Marc,

    I wrote there were 3 different windows with the kids.

    They just missed the first one that Chicago cashed in on.

    Its Lowe and Temabellini who threw around “Chicago model”, so its fair to judge them by that standard.

    There’s a future beyond the ELC years, but it will be tougher, not easier to fit a cast a good players around the kids and keep it under the cap.

    No where did I say the ELC window was the only window, which you seem to be accusing me of doing.

  89. Bos8 says:

    I’ve got it. Renney is going Ninja on Babcock.

    “Foolish man, you thought I was going Horkoff to stand in front of net. Hah, hah. I’ll switch to Smyth to stand in front of net. They’ll pass it into net off his ass.

    Banzai!

  90. Woodguy says:

    Rondo:
    LT,

    If thesetradeswere possible would you make them ?

    Sam Gagner for Martin Hanzal

    Ales Hemsky for Nikolai Kulemin

    I do both of those trades in a heartbeat.

    Hanzel is a defensive monster.

    Still need a 2nd scoring C if you dump Gagner.

  91. Rondo says:

    Woodguy,

    Taylor Hall could become that Center.

  92. DeadmanWaking says:

    Not just anything makes me LOL.

    Russian Photo Shoot Makes Space Sexy

  93. DBO says:

    The talk of future cap issues is true, but if you look at our cap projected out 3 years when RNH is resigned, and assuming we resign everyone and add a UFA goalie and a UFA dman (with graduation by Harsky, Kelfbomb and Musil)

    CAPGEEK.COM CAP CALCULATOR

    FORWARDS
    Taylor Hall ($5.500m) / Ryan Nugent-Hopkins ($6.000m) / Jordan Eberle ($5.500m)
    Ryan Smyth ($2.500m) / Shawn Horcoff ($5.500m) / Ales Hemsky ($4.500m)
    Magnus Paajarvi ($2.250m) / Sam Gagner ($3.250m) / Teemu Hatkainen ($1.150m)
    Ben Eager ($1.100m) / Eric Belanger ($1.750m) / Ryan Jones ($1.500m)
    / Anton Lander ($0.900m)

    DEFENSEMEN
    Tom Gilbert ($4.000m) / Ladislav Smid ($3.500m)
    UFA Vet ($5.000m) / Ryan Whitney ($4.000m)
    Jeff Petry ($1.500m) / Corey Potter ($0.775m)
    David Musil ($0.900m) / Oscar Klefbomb ($0.975m)

    GOALTENDERS
    Devyn Dubnyk ($2.250m) / Vet UFA ($2.500m)

    BUYOUTS: Sheldon Souray ($1.500m)

    CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (follow @capgeek on Twitter)
    (these totals are compiled without the bonus cushion)
    SALARY CAP: $64,300,000; CAP PAYROLL: $68,300,000; BONUSES: $0
    CAP SPACE (23-man roster): -$4,000,000

    that is a $68.3 mill cap hit. 3 years out assuming the cap continues on it’s current pace, or even slows down we will be fine unless we overpay for a huge goalie. But regardless of the names on the line, that is a decent salary structure for a contender. our issue is Horcoff as an overpay (which can be mitigated by a decent value singing of Gagner).

  94. danny says:

    I really don’t understand the guffaw about the ELC window. It was never a realistic possibility that this team could become a contender during Halls 3 years unless we kept him in junior and ran the clock to the limit. During this time we stocked our team with veteran NHLers, and then let Hall play in the NHL… so that we can save that $2-3M dollars on his salary cap hit, and win the cup whiles hes making 3.5 instead of 6M? Am I missing something there?

    Not to mention Hall is probably our best player now… I like him being on the roster. He makes a rebuild watchable.

    Oh yeah theres this other thing, wears number 93. If we followed the plug strategy, every year, he wouldnt be here either.

    I understand that people want to win, and are sick of losing.

    I understand that people are sick of this managements ineptutude…

    I dont understand the anger in some peoples convictions on this topic when they put forward plans that are far from bulletproof themselves.

  95. R¡bs says:

    Marc: This is, I think, many people’s (or at least my) concern about re-signing Hemsky. He’s on pace for 36 points this year and has 42 and 22 points in the two seasons before this one. He may have got those points against tough opposition, but that is nowhere near the production you expect and need from a player earning $4.1M per season.

    ..That’s 42 points in 47 games…and 22 points in 22 games. The bum.

  96. godot10 says:

    DBO,

    Steven Stamkos signed for $7 million, with no UFA years surrendered. How do you expect to get Hall, Eberle, and Nugent-Hopkins all under $6 million per season?

    How do you get Hemsky to take a pay cut? His salary in actual dollars this year is $5 million.

    Klefbom is a mid-1st round pick. Is he going to sign an entry level contract without entry level bonuses boosting his cap hit.

    And you don’t have the lottery pick for this year there, with at least a $2 million cap hit.

    Lot of wishful thinking.

  97. Schitzo says:

    win the cup whiles hes making 3.5 instead of 6M? Am I missing something there?

    Any normal year you could exceed the cap by the value of the bonuses – so for the purposes of discussion it’s probably more accurate to call it $1.0mm on the ELC.

  98. Marc says:

    Woodguy: No where did I say the ELC window was the only window, which you seem to be accusing me of doing.

    Didn’t mean to sound aggressive or accusing, so I’m sorry if I did.

    I think that the whole idea of a ‘window’ for the kids is flawed though. Cap management matters, and having players on ELCs outperform their cap hit can be an aspect of cap management. It’s not the only one though and I think it’s a mistake to look at it in isolation.

    There are plenty of ways to ensure that the $8M in extra cap space you’ve estimated is necessary for the kids’ second contracts is there. Not signing FAs to expensive long term contracts is one. Or not resigning your own players to long, or expensive contracts unless you’re certain they’re worth it.

    I guess what I took issue with is you saying that management has ‘pissed away’ the kids’ ELCs – Which I took as implying that they have stupidly mismanaged the cap – when in fact there will be plenty of cap space with which to resign the kids. The Oilers have exactly two players signed with cap hits greater than $2M the year that Eberle, Hall and MPS become RFAs, and both of those players were inherited by Tambellini, not signed by him.

    There are valid criticisms that can be leveled at Tambellini, but I don’t mismanaging the cap is one of them.

  99. DBO says:

    godot10,

    And Bobby ryan signed for $5.1 million. Jeff carter for $5.2, Mike richards $5.75. There are examples of under $6 mill. And remember, after the next bargaining for a CBA, the likelihood is that the cap percentage will drop, and new deals will reflect less cap space (not to mention the possibility of a roll back again of current deals).

    As for this years top pick, like I said don’t look so much at the players as look at the cap hits. But I’ll concede that if we get a top 3 pick (which I am not sure about, I think we’ll finish 6th) then you add another $2 mill to the roster.

    And for Hemsky, sorry, but no way he commands anything more then $4.5 mill.

    As for Kelfbomb, look at Eberle’s deal which has a cap hit of $1.15 mill, so yes Klefbomb is right at $1.5 mill.

  100. Woodguy says:

    Rondo:
    Woodguy,

    Taylor Hall could become that Center.

    Hall’s speed with and without the puck is a key weapon for him.

    If you make him a C he’s last in, first out of the ozone.

    You need to let that horse run.

  101. sliderule says:

    I think oiler management haven’t been happy with Hemskys attitude for quite a while.

    I was told that mactavish offered to work out with Ales and Penner to help them get in shape.the offer was turned down by both of them but it makes you think that at least Mactavish didn’t think Ales was giving his all.

    You now have Ales showing a lot of frustration as he leaves the ice.Management overlooks that when your twenty but at twenty eight expects more.

    If they do trade him there better be a a forward or defenceman coming back.As we will be selling somewhat damaged goods don’t expect that we will getting much more than a decent prospect or another teams damaged goods.

  102. danny says:

    Schitzo: ear you could exceed the cap by the value of the bonuses – so for the purposes of discussion it’s probably more accurate to

    I read that the bonus cushion was up to 7.5% of the cap.Thats what, $5M for the entire team?

  103. oilersfan says:

    Tavares, Kane, Toews all make under 6 million cap hit.

    Stamkos scored 50 goals. Hall is very good but not as good as Stamkos. I think the Tavares contract for Hall is very reasonable.

    Don’t forget Hall and RNH are already making 3.75 cap hit so to get them both to 5.5 is basically the amount of a pay cut Smyth will get. Eberle’s riase is more problematic but I expect the cap to be going up.

  104. maudite says:

    Woodguy: I have no confidence that the Oiler management actually knows what they are doing.Putting mostly AHL Dmen behind these high end kids is pretty damning evidence of that.

    No need for this response. Appologize for not using a booky thing in my original post there.

  105. oilersfan says:

    oops Toews and Kane make 6.2 cap hit. Tavares 5.5. I think Hall is in the range. Right now Tavares seems to be better than Kane. I think 5.75 ish for Hall is reasonable and what he and the Oilers will agree on.

  106. Marc says:

    R¡bs: .That’s 42 points in 47 games…and 22 points in 22 games. The bum.

    Don’t you think it’s valid to take into consideration a player’s injury history when deciding what kind of contract he warrants? You don’t get bonus points from the league when a star player goes down . I think you miss a fairly important part of the equation when you look at points per game without also looking at actual points as well. Hemsky’s points per game was mentioned early in the thread, so I thought I’d throw in his actual points over the last three seasons for a little balance,

    And it’s not just Hemsky. When deciding next season whether or not Whitney warrants a new contract, and if so, the term and value, I don’t see how you can avoid taking into account his injury history.

  107. R¡bs says:

    Marc,

    Well, you can question his injury history, but you can’t question the production. It’s there.

    Hemsky is having a tough year. He’s having injury problems again and he’s having to deal with having his role on the team reduced/modified due to the kids. It’s kind of the perfect storm for him to struggle this season. It’s a smart bet that he will rebound.

    The answer seems pretty obvious to me. Sign him at a discounted rate.

  108. Rondo says:

    How would you rank these player? Say 4yrs out, who will be the best

    RNH
    Taylor Hall
    John Tavares
    Tyler Seguin

  109. Woodguy says:

    Traktor:
    Horcoff had two good seasons.

    The first was an anomaly league-wide because of all the rule changes . Cheechoo scored 56 that year.. Gionta scored 48.

    The second was less credible because he missed 35% of the season and had a 19% shooting percentage.

    I wouldn’t have signed Horcoff to that contract (especially after season ending surgery) and Woodguy would have. That’s kind of my point.

    As for Horcoff taking on the tough minutes, Stoll, Peca and Reasoner might have something to say about that.

    You are incorrect about assuming I’d have given Horcoff the same contract. Term was far too long.

    You are correct that Stoll (and Reasoner) had tougher comp when Horcoff had his very good short year in his contract year.

  110. Marc says:

    R¡bs: Sign him at a discounted rate.

    Agree.

    But if he and his agent don’t?

  111. Ribs says:

    These are guys I would think about (cynically) when trying to re-sign Hemsky…

    Milan Hejduk……. $2.6M
    Alex Tanguay……..$3.5M
    Jussi Jokinen…….$3M
    Ray Whitney……….$3M
    Matt Cullen…………$3.5M
    Patric Hornqvist …$3M

    If the plan is to watch him bomb the season and then offer him somewhere in the $3-3.5M range I’d be pretty comfortable with that.

  112. Woodguy says:

    Marc: Agree.

    But if he and his agent don’t?

    Then trade him.

    The problem a lot of us have with this is that they haven’t offered Hemsky anything (as per Hemsky)

    This management group has a history of walking away/trading players that can help (Hedja, Glencross, Penner, Brodziak, soon to be Hemsky) without trying to fill their role.

    Glencross even called Lowe repeatedly to get a dialogue going, but his calls were never returned (as per Glencross)

    Try to keep the player at what would be a good value at the very least.

    Walking away from players who fill a role, then expecting non-NHL caliber players to fill their roles is the hallmark of this management team.

    It gets frustrating after 6 or so years of the same shit.

    Now they have a good group of kids and seem to think that relying on them to take the team to the promised land without filling in around them will work.

    NYI, ATL, CBJ tell us this isn’t true.

    So we bitch, whine and moan.

    An Traktor calls us names.

    Rinse, repeat.

  113. Ribs says:

    Marc,

    Hemsky’s cache is pretty low right now. He probably could get a bit more in the off season if he wanted to, but it wou;ldn’t be that much more…And Hemsky ha sbeen pretty open about how much he likes life in Edmonton.

  114. godot10 says:

    DBO,

    You expect Hemsky to take a pay cut without testing free agency?

    Hemsky will never sign in Edmonton for less than what he is making this year, which is $5 million dollars. You expect to re-sign him by insulting him?

  115. fuzzy muppet says:

    Horcoff with RNH? weird.

    It’s like this franchise REFUSES to realize what Shawn Horcoff is: A 3C

    Do they think that because they pay him more, they have to play him higher in the lineup?

  116. Ribs says:

    Er..cachet.. And never mind the other mistakes. Damn you, missing edit button! Maybe it’s a Chrome problem?

  117. Ribs says:

    You’re right, it’s likely a Ribs problem.

  118. admiralmark says:

    How about a #3 or #4 Dman? Would that be a step back? All this team needs is some signs of development next year from OKC. Just 1 player to push for a top 6 role and losing a perennially injured Hemsky will feel seamless.

  119. godot10 says:

    Ribs,

    Ray Whitney 39
    Milan Hejduk 36
    Alex Tanguay 32
    Matt Cullen 36

    Hemsky comparables? You’re kidding right? Hemsky is in the “prime” of his career.

  120. hunter1909 says:

    fuzzy muppet: It’s like this franchise REFUSES to realize what Shawn Horcoff is: A 3C
    Do they think that because they pay him more, they have to play him higher in the lineup?

    Abso-fucking-lutely.

    Not only this, but 80% of the so-called sophisticated posters on Lowetide talk as if Horcoff’s no problem whatsoever, in any way, shape, or form.

    It’s just not politically correct to diss Shawn Horcoff.

  121. godot10 says:

    Ribs,

    Patric Hornqvist, restricted free agent. A Hemsky comparable? You’re kidding right?

  122. Smarmy says:

    Rondo:
    How would you rank these player? Say 4yrs out, who will be the best

    RNH
    Taylor Hall
    John Tavares
    Tyler Seguin

    I’ll say the same thing I thought when TSN did this poll. Why is Seguin in a list with three other first overalls? Should be Stamkos, Hall, Tavares, Hopkins.

    TSN put Seguin on the list because of the lame debate they had that year and it gets oilfans goat so they get hits on the website and all that. (You could just as easily include Duchene on that list as he was debated as the first overall in some circles as well.

    As for Taylor vs Tyler. It was a good bet that the first and second overall picks were going to be really good hockey players and they’ll cover that bet. I’ll have my opinion that Hall would have had more impact with the Bruins last year and they both look great this year. I still think Hall has more gears in the box and will be a real force in this league unless the Hockey Gods hate him and take him away from us via injuries.

  123. Lowetide says:

    Horcoff lining up on the 2line, that’s a mistake. Why they can’t see he’s a 1C is a mystery.

  124. DSF says:

    Woodguy: Then trade him.

    The problem a lot of us have with this is that they haven’t offered Hemsky anything (as per Hemsky)

    This management group has a history of walking away/trading players that can help (Hedja, Glencross, Penner, Brodziak, soon to be Hemsky) without trying to fill their role.

    Glencross even called Lowe repeatedly to get a dialogue going, but his calls were never returned (as per Glencross)

    Try to keep the player at what would be a good value at the very least.

    Walking away from players who fill a role, then expecting non-NHL caliber players to fill their roles is the hallmark of this management team.

    It gets frustrating after 6 or so years of the same shit.

    Now they have a good group of kids and seem to think that relying on them to take the team to the promised land without filling in around them will work.

    NYI, ATL, CBJ tell us this isn’t true.

    So we bitch, whine and moan.

    An Traktor calls us names.

    Rinse, repeat.

    To be fair…and I’m sure you are…:)…it’s Traktor who is normally the subject of name calling.

  125. hunter1909 says:

    What’s wrong with the Oilers? How about adding up the Smyth/Horcoff/Hemsky line’s collective salaries, and compare the cost of these collective losers to any other line in the NHL?

    result: guaranteed isolation of the most cancerous aspect of this 29th place hockey club.

  126. Gret99zky says:

    godot10:
    DBO,

    You expect Hemsky to take a pay cut without testing free agency?

    Hemsky will never sign in Edmonton for less than what he is making this year, which is $5 million dollars.You expect to re-sign him by insulting him?

    I’d bet Hemsky is looking for around $6 Million per year. And of course, Edmonton must overpay players to sign them so $6.5-7.0 Million per year probably gets him done.

  127. Ribs says:

    godot10: Hemsky comparables? You’re kidding right? Hemsky is in the “prime” of his career.

    Check out Tanguay in the “prime” of his career. Bad seasons and injuries can really hurt your value. These are guys that I would (cynically) project Hemsky’s career path to follow. I think he’s better than some of them (if not all), but I don’t see why he should get paid that much more than them based on age, rather than production.

    When it comes down to it, Hemsky needs to take a discount if he wants to stick around. If he wants to go make an extra million or two somewhere else, so be it. The Oilers have the future to dangle in front of him now. If he’s still on board, he’ll sign.

  128. Smarmy says:

    Gret99zky: I’d bet Hemsky is looking for around $6 Million per year.And of course, Edmonton must overpay players to sign them so $6.5-7.0 Million per year probably gets him done.

    I don’t know if he is. If he’s valued as a 6-7 million per annum player then the Oilers should get a good haul for him at the deadline.

  129. Ribs says:

    godot10:
    Ribs,

    Patric Hornqvist, restricted free agent.A Hemsky comparable?You’re kidding right?

    Is he due for a big raise? Or what?

    These are just guys that come to mind, production wise. I’m using broad strokes here.

  130. Gret99zky says:

    Smarmy: I don’t know if he is. If he’s valued as a 6-7 million per annum player then the Oilers should get a good haul for him at the deadline.

    You see Hemsky signing with a team for less than $6 Million per year in July?

  131. Woodguy says:

    godot10:
    DBO,

    You expect Hemsky to take a pay cut without testing free agency?

    Hemsky will never sign in Edmonton for less than what he is making this year, which is $5 million dollars.You expect to re-sign him by insulting him?

    He’s stated he likes Edmonton.

    His girlfriend is from Edmonton.

    He has said all his friends live in Edmonton.

    Why not ask?

    They haven’t asked.

    They are dumb.

  132. Woodguy says:

    Gret99zky: You see Hemsky signing with a team for less than $6 Million per year in July?

    Why not?

    You can point to the Sedin’s signing for a cap hit of 6.1MM to stay where they wanted.

    As much as I like Hemsky, he’s no Sedin (either one)

  133. Ribs says:

    $6M? That’s Ville Leino money!…Maybe there is someone dumb enough to pay him that much after all….

  134. Woodguy says:

    Ribs,

    When it comes down to it, Hemsky needs to take a discount if he wants to stick around. If he wants to go make an extra million or two somewhere else, so be it. The Oilers have the future to dangle in front of him now. If he’s still on board, he’ll sign.

    This.

  135. Gret99zky says:

    Smyth liked Edmonton.

    His wife lived with him in Edmonton.

    His friends lived in Edmonton.

    Didn’t change the fact that he wanted the big, big bucks in free agency.

  136. Ribs says:

    Smyth cried when he left.

  137. Ribs says:

    …And now he’s back.

  138. Gret99zky says:

    Hemsky could always sign with LA in July and trade himself back to the Oil when his girlfriend gets sick of tinseltown.

  139. hunter1909 says:

    Only fools diss Taylor Hall’s hockey skills. if Hall was any more clinical around the net, he’d be a hybrid of Bobby Hull and Rocket Richard, ffs.

    Each member of the Kid line has a unique skill set compared to the others. Hall’s simply a bull out there…give him 1-2 years to physically mature and he’s going to be unstoppable. RNH I haven’t seen in a while, lol, but as memory serves appears to be not only insanely skilled at controlling most of the on ice play, but is physically another kind of freak by the way older and bigger players bounce off him. Eberle just oozes class in that Seguin manner – so many fans of other teams rave about Eberle it’s not funny.

    Personally, tonight will be keeping a special look out for watching Cam Barker, who, despite falling flat on his arse last game for some reason hasn’t been getting his usual hateful comments from everyone. I seriously think he’s going to be re-signed for next year, at a reasonable price, and will be worth every penny.

    Hemsky’s not worth 6 million any more than Horcoff’s worth 5.5 million. Hemsky’s been promising to break out for the past 5 years, and never has, and imo never will. A good player, a very good player, but strictly complimentary. Hell, even Moreau used to take over games every so often.

    I understand that Hemsky draws the heavyweight coverage, and I’ve always wanted him on the team, btw. But if his agent is another greedy asshole whispering in his ear, then he’s got to go. Overpaying players is a mug’s game.

  140. Lowetide says:

    The Oilers might have fallen ass over tea kettle into great fortune. Fine offensive player has a subpar season in his walk year.

    You know, it’s kind of an IQ test.

  141. Woodguy says:

    DSF: To be fair…and I’m sure you are…:)…it’s Traktor who is normally the subject of name calling.

    You are correct when talking about posters in general.

    He seems to reserve a special place in his heart for me though.

    To be fair, he doesn’t “call names”, but rather dismiss ideas as asinine without putting his own ideas out for critisism (usually, not always)

  142. Woodguy says:

    Gret99zky:
    Smyth liked Edmonton.

    His wife lived with him in Edmonton.

    His friends lived in Edmonton.

    Didn’t change the fact that he wanted the big, big bucks in free agency.

    Don Meehan being a grinding prick and Cal Nichols lack of patience with that type of person is why Smyth got traded (he didn’t leave)

    Horcoff is on record saying that Smyth told him that morning it would get done.

    A few posters around here hear a bit from time to time as well.

    Smyth did not want to leave.

  143. Woodguy says:

    Lowetide:
    The Oilers might have fallen ass over tea kettle into great fortune. Fine offensive player has a subpar season in his walk year.

    You know, it’s kind of an IQ test.

    That’s perfect.

  144. sliderule says:

    Penner and Hemsky were in mactavishs doghouse.You have to think that there was a whole lot going on on the ice and in the locker rom with those two guys that management was unhappy with.

    The game isn’t just pts/60 or corsi it’s partly how your work ethic affects the other players on the team.Hemmer had flash and dash but either thru injury,attitude or lack of all around ability was never able to lead the oil to better things

  145. danny says:

    Its not an IQ test until we know Hemskys salary request.

  146. Woodguy says:

    sliderule:
    Penner and Hemsky were in mactavishs doghouse.You have to think that there was a whole lot going on on the ice and in the locker rom with those two guys that management was unhappy with.

    The game isn’t just pts/60 or corsi it’s partly how your work ethic affects the other players on the team.Hemmer had flash and dash but either thru injury,attitude or lack of all around ability was never able to leadthe oil to better things

    Saying Hemsky has been the problem with the Oilers is hilarious.

    Tavares is the problem with the Islanders.

    Nash is the problem with CBJ.

    Staal is the problem with CAR.

    We at war with Eastasia. We have always been at war with Eastasia.

  147. danny says:

    Woodguy: Saying Hemsky has been the problem with the Oilers is hilarious.

    Tavares is the problem with the Islanders.

    Nash is the problem with CBJ.

    Staal is the problem with CAR.

    We at war with Eastasia.We have always been at war with Eastasia.

    He overstated his case a bit, but he didnt say Hemsky has been the problem with the Oilers.

  148. striatic says:

    danny:
    Its not an IQ test until we know Hemskys salary request.

    what would you sign Hemsky for?

  149. danny says:

    striatic,

    If Hemmer would sign for $4M thats a sweetheart deal, and imo you counterbalance any risk of shoulder problems with the probability of a value contract.

    When we get into the $5M+ range, then I’m less inclined to agree theres any urgency to extend him, comsidering thats roughly his market value (havlat territory) and EDM should be able to compete with any other suitors if anything the Hemsky camp has been saying is true. It also leaves the door open to feel out other pieces that they can allocate that $5M to.

  150. Traktor says:

    Not only this, but 80% of the so-called sophisticated posters on Lowetide talk as if Horcoff’s no problem whatsoever, in any way, shape, or form.

    It’s just not politically correct to diss Shawn Horcoff.

    If you don’t think 10 is a top center in the league it says more about you than it does about Horcoff.

    You know, it’s kind of an IQ test.

  151. striatic says:

    my 2p, i think they should resign Hemsky. team isn’t exactly stacked at RW, you know.

    Eberle, Hemsky, Ryan Jones, Ben Eager

    i’d LOVE to see Jones lead a 4th line. he’s a decent 3rd line player but he’d be a great 4th line player. always seems to make hay with limited minutes. he doesn’t fight but he does hit, and manages to play physically without drawing a ton of penalties, whereas Eager? meh. put Omark on the third line. if you don’t think Omark is ready, well that’s even more reason to keep Hemsky, isn’t it?

    it is good to have DEPTH at positions, right? you lose that if you trade away Hemsky.

    we keep on talking about how the team needs depth on Defense and i agree, but you can’t sacrifice offensive depth unless you have it and the oilers aren’t even close yet, especially at RW and C.

  152. hunter1909 says:

    In European football the number 10 is usually reserved for the most talented forward on the team.

    In Edmonton the number 10 is reserved for something else altogether.

  153. bookje says:

    WG – and Lowe did not really want to trade him. The EIG was pulling the strings. I am sure Lowe could have stopped it by Standing firm, but it was management by committee at that point.

  154. Woodguy says:

    danny: He overstated his case a bit, but he didnt say Hemsky has been the problem with the Oilers.

    I’ve been drinking.

  155. Lowetide says:

    I’ll make everyone a deal. I’ll start shitting on Horcoff the moment someone can show me his zone start and qual comp are butter soft. Deal?

  156. Woodguy says:

    bookje:
    WG – and Lowe did not really want to trade him.The EIG was pulling the strings.I am sure Lowe could have stopped it by Standing firm, but it was management by committee at that point.

    Lowe was told with 2 hours until the trade deadline to trade Smyth.

    On Mark Messier night no less.

    I disagree with a lot of what Lowe has done, but I wouldn’t want to be in that chair.

  157. Rondo says:

    Woodguy,

    Speaking the Truth in times of universal deceit is a revolutionary act

  158. Traktor says:

    Horcoff gets to play with RNH and Hemsky tonight.

    Tough assignment.

  159. Lowetide says:

    Well, based on this thread many Oiler fans believe Hemsky is barely able to keep his head aloft and we know 93 is being fed buckets of pig dung at evens.

    So you can’t have it both ways.

  160. sliderule says:

    Saying Hemsky has been the problem with the Oilers is hilarious.

    Tavares is the problem with the Islanders.

    Nash is the problem with CBJ.

    Staal is the problem with CAR.

    I am sure the oil looked on Ales as a guy with an 150 IQ getting marks in the 60s.He just has /had so much skill but never got to the next level.Last person on the ice and first person off gives a glimpse of his work ethic.

    We at war with Eastasia.We have always been at war with Eastasia.

  161. hunter1909 says:

    Lowe, Horcoff…Who will rid us of these turbulent priests?

  162. Woodguy says:

    Traktor: If you don’t think 10 is a top center in the league it says more about you than it does about Horcoff.

    You know, it’s kind of an IQ test.

    No one here thinks that.

    You just characterize it that way to make yourself feel better.

  163. Traktor says:

    Woodguy: No one here thinks that.

    You just characterize it that way to make yourself feel better.

    Actually, that quote is from Lowetide. Ask him.

  164. Henry says:

    hunter1909:
    In European football the number 10 is usually reserved for the most talented forward on the team.

    In Edmonton the number 10 is reserved for something else altogether.

    Pouzar and Horc. You hit it, 10 is reserved for commies!

  165. Ribs says:

    Is that how you remember it? Could explain a few things.

  166. Woodguy says:

    Traktor: Actually, that quote is from Lowetide. Ask him.

    You either have a poor memory or haven’t been around since the beginning.

    How many years ago was that quote?

    Your mis-characterization of what most say is among the most endearing traits.

  167. hunter1909 says:

    Even mentioning the word Horkoff(original Doukhobor spelling) seemingly contains the latent energy of a hydrogen atom. And this is with nearly every oiler fan, whether said fan is either for, or against number 10.

    Sacred cow, indeed.

  168. Woodguy says:

    Woodguy: How many years ago was that quote?

    Your mis-characterization of what most say is among the most endearing traits.

    That and your incredible attention to detail so every stat you write about has context.

  169. delooper says:

    “Many Oiler fans believe…” well, no. It’s just there’s two or three of them that can’t stop repeating the same things. Somehow repetition is a key ingredient in forming a narrative. Only, we don’t have a quorum on where the story is going… I’m hoping Hemsky has a nice game tonight, and that my internet connection recovers enough so that I can watch it from home…

  170. hunter1909 says:

    sliderule: I am sure the oil looked on Ales as a guy with an 150 IQ getting marks in the 60s

    That hits the nail on the head for me, once you change a few simple words around to read like this:

    The Oil, with a collective IQ of 90, look on suspiciously at Ales who has an IQ of 150.

  171. danny says:

    “The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, but wiser people so full of doubts.”

    -Bertrand Russel

  172. Rondo says:

    danny,

    To see what is in front of one’s nose needs a constant struggle.

  173. Lowetide says:

    Russel couldn’t coach a flea.

  174. hunter1909 says:

    “And how many rings has Bertrand Russell got?”

    Kevin(the professor)Lowe

  175. sliderule says:

    Anyone watching Leafs/Ottawa ?
    Man I would hate to be Ottawa fan it sounds like crowd is mostly cheering for Leafs.

  176. Traktor says:

    danny: “The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, but wiser people so full of doubts.”

    I haven’t seen one person doubt the context that is BTN. You would think the first thing one would do if they based 99% of their opinions on advanced stats would be to prove it right.

    I goggled advanced hockey stats peer review and nothing came up.

    Shocking, I know.

  177. DSF says:

    Woodguy: No one here thinks that.

    You just characterize it that way to make yourself feel better.

    LT used that phrase as an epithet for two years leading up to the signing go Horcoff to his golden contract.

    Denying that is North Korean in it’s epic glory.

  178. Lowetide says:

    I goggled in the 70s, but it didn’t take. BTN has been questioned constantly, the qual comp has come under all kinds of scrutiny. Having said that, I think we all appreciate the effort it takes to get to the moon. I’m thrilled for the advanced stats men, Vic, Gabe, Tyler, others. The fact that there are imperfections doesn’t mean we discount everything.

  179. DSF says:

    sliderule,

    Notes from that game.

    Karlsson IS the next Lidstrom.

    Kessel and Lupul are both fantastic hockey players.

    Burke getting Gardiner AND Lupul for Beauchemin may be the steal of the decade.

  180. Lowetide says:

    Lupul fantastic hockey player? Hmmm. I saw him fail to get the puck out too many times. He’s a poor man’s Kenny Hodge imo at the outer marker. Best of luck, he’ll never convince me.

  181. danny says:

    Lupul scored 5 goals in one game… in the playoffs.

    you have bad information LT.

  182. hunter1909 says:

    danny:
    Lupul scored 5 goals in one game… in the playoffs.

    you have bad information LT.

    4 goals, bro.

  183. Traktor says:

    On a different note is anyone comfortable going into next season with DD as the #1?

  184. DSF says:

    Lowetide:
    Lupul fantastic hockey player? Hmmm. I saw him fail to get the puck out too many times. He’s a poor man’s Kenny Hodge imo at the outer marker. Best of luck, he’ll never convince me.

    Small sample size…player who didn’t want to be in Edmonton.

    56 points in 53 GP. +5.

    Qual Comp – #2
    Qual Team – #5

    Coming off serious medical issues.

    Results matter.

  185. Ribs says:

    Super Mario the last player to score 5 in a playoff game, according to Wikipedia.

  186. danny says:

    it was definitely 4… everything since the fall of 2006 has been a blur

  187. Lowetide says:

    DSF,

    And he didn’t deliver enough in EDM. Believe me, I was cheering for him.

  188. danny says:

    I just noticed Chrome on Mac doesnt have the edit feature. FYI.

    (unless the edit feature has stopped working for everyone?)

  189. Traktor says:

    I’m surprised nobody has mentioned the Tambellini extension yet.

  190. Lowetide says:

    Danny: Edit is my friend on exp and firefox.

  191. fuzzy muppet says:

    Traktor,

    Absolutely NOT. He lets in waaay to many softies for my liking. Things may change, but as of now,,.NO

  192. danny says:

    ok so when people complain in the future we know Mac + Chrome = No Edit for you!

  193. Lowetide says:

    dubnyk, he sucks and blows. Or not.

  194. regwald says:

    Lowetide:
    DSF,

    And he didn’t deliver enough in EDM. Believe me, I was cheering for him.

    Not sure that bragging up a player who has never lasted more than 2 consecutive seasons on the same team makes sense. Sure, he`s having a career year, but there`s a reason he`s been traded 4 times.

    Maybe now he`s matured and settled into being a good pro, but then again, let`s see him post back to back seasons of note.

    Btw, he only has 4 more points than second yr player – Eberle who`s on a 29th place team.

    hmmm …

  195. Ribs says:

    danny,

    I’m using XP and Chrome and the Edit function is gonzo. I swear it appeared at work where I’m using Chrome and Windows 7, though.

  196. danny says:

    DD has too many wrinkles in his game to be a starter next year. If we can unload NK at the deadline, we need an UFA .910 vet

  197. fuzzy muppet says:

    Gagner sucks :)

  198. Woodguy says:

    Of course it was 89.

    Great pass to / by Mr. Disinterestedfirstofftheice

  199. spoiler says:

    Only Samwise can score. He is the Ringbearer now.

  200. striatic says:

    Gagner seems somewhat confident tonight, don’t you think?

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