G54 Oilers at Red Wings

The Edmonton Oilers had a nice little run there just before and then after the All-Star game. The Toronto game was a train wreck and the RNH news was simply dreadful. Watching RNH losing the Calder to injury is painful.

I look forward to watching this team, mostly because Eberle and Hall do things other Oiler phenoms couldn’t do over the years. Sam Gagner has either turned a corner or peaked, and these are the last days of the Hemsky era and when it ends it’ll be forever. I know he’s the first off the ice at practice, but for me the actual games are what counts and since his arrival the Pardubice Prince has entertained and amazed.

The scouts tell us this year’s draft is weak and that more teams will be willing to deal their first rounders. With that in mind, I’d peg Hemsky as being worth a first round pick and a player, and still believe Detroit is a strong contender to acquire him. It just “feels” right, Hemsky in a puck possession environment. Knowing Detroit, they’ve been dying to make a few tweaks in his game and once perfected he’ll soar like an eagle and bugger the Oilers senseless four times a year.

I know Darren Dreger has been saying Detroit is going away from Hemsky and are more interested in Travis Moen, but don’t buy it. Detroit slips that out two weeks from the deadline? Plenty of time for them to fall in love again. Tonight would be a good night for Hemmer to Hum.

Paajarvi makes his return tonight, I would have kept him down on the farm. Hartikainen is the guy I’d throw into the top 6 mix at this point. Have him spend time with Ryan Smyth on the finer points of  the game. Smyth’s been run ragged and is turning over the puck in strange places, but I’d bet on him 10 times out of 10.

One final item: It was interesting to see a lot of media reports having RNH being hit by the Leaf Brown. It looked to me like they hit each other or that RNH engaged, and the kid said basically the same thing.  Thought I’d mention it since framing the issue seems to blur everything these days.

 

 

written by

The author didn‘t add any Information to his profile yet.
Related Posts

170 Responses to "G54 Oilers at Red Wings"

  1. hunter1909 says:

    Tonight, it’s got to be go Wings. And I don’t even like them, to put it mildly.

    Oilers tease, then suck. Better to let them fail now and acquire another top three pick. The season’s already starting to wind down(ha ha), so, no point in a patented surge + drop in the draft standings.

  2. Suntory Hanzo says:

    I thought everyone was saying that this was going to be a deep draft. What changed? Or did I read it wrong.

    Agreed on PRV/Harsky switch.

  3. justDOit says:

    Almost equally depressing as the latest injury to RNH, is that MPS is on his way back up. He has scored one AHL goal in 14 games.

  4. HBomb says:

    Oilers at home this year: 15-8-3 (respectable, in the top half of the league)
    Oilers on the road: 6-19-2 (DFL, even Columbus has more road-points)

    I can’t say I’m particularly surprised by this either.

    With that being said…knowing what went down Saturday night (thrilling game, Oilers upset the Wings at home), this one has the foul stench of “total domination” to it. As in the Wings win 4-0, but the shots are about 35-15 in favor of the home team.

  5. russ99 says:

    Suntory Hanzo,

    It is a deep draft – for defensemen, and those are a bit of a risk, even in the top-5.

    For forwards, there’s really only the top two guys who are sure things.

  6. Jordan says:

    Why the hell is it that all of the media outlets are spewing out this nonsensical garbage that the Oilers defense is too thin? That somehow just as the team gets all of its defenders back from injury, it’s lacking depth?

    There’s two holes in the defense right now – one is potter, who’s been playing progressively worse as the season has gone on, and the other is Barker who’s just as terrible in his own end now as he was to start the season.

    How can anyone who watches the games and sees what is going on not understand this – it’s completely ridiculous!

    The problem with the team isn’t that it isn’t deep on the back end – the problem is that the coach is playing a terrible defender, and sitting an effective one (Sutton).

    I had a friend once who went out and bought a wonderful new computer. Top of the line parts, could run or render anything, and was built to be a beast of a gaming machine.

    But, the guy never bothered to update any of the drivers or anything to actually take advantage of the capabilities of the hardware he had.

    This is how I think of Cam Barker – all the parts are there, but the software allowing him to operate at his potential is missing.

  7. "Steve Smith" says:

    Jordan:
    Why the hell is it that all of the media outlets are spewing out this nonsensical garbage that the Oilers defense is too thin?

    Turns out they have eyes.

  8. Hambone678 says:

    Jordan: Why the hell is it that all of the media outlets are spewing out this nonsensical garbage that the Oilers defense is too thin? That somehow just as the team gets all of its defenders back from injury, it’s lacking depth?

    Maybe the fact that there were two guys out there that wouldn’t have made other NHL rosters? (Barker, Potter)

  9. sliderule says:

    All the talk before the last draft was how the 2012 draft was going to be strong. I think all the injuries to top prospects has muddied the water but there is still gold if you search enough.

    Zona has a great item on how Detroit has done really well with later picks almost all euros.I think we should add to our euro scouting as our head euro scout in 2011 as his contribution gave us two goalies who are really struggling.

  10. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    “I don’t want you to see me cry, so I think I’ll just go outside, in the rain”

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RGxIb0o27cs

    I guess the Oilers have really committed to the inter-league travel component of MPS’ development. I’ve always been suspicious of this strategy. I guess the Oilers are preparing him for the Surreal Apocalypse wherein every moment his entire situation is completely different. Good luck with that.

    If Detroit ends up with Hemsky… whoo boy. He is going to roast us. It will make for some strange nights “Yea/No!” I have no doubt, however, that they would know exactly how to fit him into their group. The Oilers are still dazzled by those old Caramilk ads: “how do they fit all that caramel into that little chocolate pouch?”

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i739_D17TJ8

  11. blackdog says:

    I was lucky enough to attend the game on Monday (thanks dawgbone!) and in between the champagne and foie gras Brown and Ted collided right in front of us. Just a collision along the boards, Brown did not take a run at him or anything. Could see Ted sag almost immediately though.

  12. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    blackdog,

    “Ted?” I must be missing something. Sounds funny though. I’m inclined to call Cam Barker “Gary” for some reason. “C’mon Gary… move it!”

  13. DBO says:

    The big issue with a dman in the draft is that it normally takes 3-5 years for it to bear fruit. Unless we have the #1 pick (and based on Mackenzie’s rankings he says there #1, then everyone else) I would hope we consider moving the pick for a top end NHL dman. We have a 3 year window in my opinion. Smyth will resign for 2-3 yrs and still be relatively effective as a 3rd liner. Horcoff is stumbling offensively, but he has 2-3 yrs as a solid 3rd line checking centre. Money wise we have 2 more seasons before all of the kids are rich (signing $5-6/5 mill deals depending on cap, etc.). And for some of our younger vets (Gilbert, etc.) we have 3 years of their prime.

    We have two major holes for next year (redundant I know): Goalie and defense.

    - Goalie: Dubnyk looks like a 40 game goalie right now. he may make the leap, but at worst he can split games and go on a run. We need another mid to late 20′s goalie who can also develop. LT mentioned Ben Bishop from the Blues (I agree) or the other ones include Bernier or Harding. No way we get Schneider form Van.

    - Defense: where do we begin. The mantra 2 NHL dmen can’t be overstated. I would hope that the Oil be aggressive and make a play with their first pick (unless it’s #1) and a prospect to make a run at a player like Weber. Knowing the management we’ll end up with an injury prone Mike Green for the 1st we get for Hemsky and a prospect. I hope they go for a top end guy who is healthy and can play both ends. No use waiting 4 years for Dumba or Murray. 4 ,more years of rebuilding will kill me and a lot of other fans I expect. In a cap world you can rebuild quickly with some star kids and solid vets. But for the love of all things holy, make a run at some real players, not “potential” players who may or may not pan out in 5 years.

  14. hockeyguy10 says:

    “Ted” Nugent

    Romulus Apotheosis: blackdog, “Ted?” I must be missing something. Sounds funny though. I’m inclined to call Cam Barker “Gary” for some reason. “C’mon Gary… move it!”

  15. hunter1909 says:

    DBO: I would hope we consider moving the pick for a top end NHL dman. We have a 3 year window in my opinion.

    WTF is this, a Flames fan?

    A three year window for what exactly? To have mister 5.5 million as captain for the most putrid franchise in the NHL?

  16. godot10 says:

    Sentiment is a dumb reason to keep a player.

    Two pairs who complement each other, and should form the basis of two solid top lines:
    Nugent-Hopkins, Eberle
    Hall, Gagner

    You can only pay 3 forwards top dollar. No room for Hemsky. And the 3 are going to get top dollar because you want to sign away as many UFA years as possible in the next contract to maximize the length of the window, which contributes to attracting an elite UFA defenseman.

    Gagner is going to come with a 4-handle if you sign away two UFA years. Mid-threes if you sign away one. (If they Oilers draft Grigorenko, they probably sign Gagner for two.)

    Gagner can also choose to opt for arbitration both this year and next if he wants to test UFA in two years. So I think he demands 4 years with a 4-handle, or he goes the arbitration route to UFA status.

  17. Nicholas says:

    re: Hemsky. I don’t understand is how there is any way to come out of this with the Oilers “winning”.

    I can’t conceive of any trade where the Oilers come out ahead. They aren’t getting a top 4 dman, so any assets in return are years away from helping.

    As for re-signing him – what are the options? I’m sure his agent is rightly telling him not to accept any short term deals. With his injury history, it’s in his best interest to get a longterm deal for the financial security. Combine that with the list of UFAs according to CapGeek, the only UFA forwards younger than him are Parisa and Semin, and there is not a lot of quality. Someone will certainly throw out a 4 or 5 year deal at a decent number ($5m+)

    The best case scenario for the Oil would be a one or two year overpay ($6m?) to see what he’s got but if he absolutely refuses that deal what do you do? If he and his agent won’t budge from a 5yr/$25m contract minimum, likely with a NTC, do you take it?

    It just seems like a no win situation. He’s a UFA, so he’s earned the right to decide his fate. His worst case scenario is a short term deal and then another longterm injury that both limits both the dollars and term he’d get on his next contract. Even on a short term overpay there’s a big risk of him leaving money on the table. Risk for the Oilers is signing him to a 5-year big dollar contract and having his effectiveness limited by injury – if he’s healthy enough to play, but not healthy enough to give you value for the cap hit that could be a disaster when the kids come up for their next contracts.

  18. DBO says:

    Hunter: are you confident that all our picks will pan out? Eventually you use your stockpile of prospects to add actual NHL players to fill the giant gaps in your team. Sorry, but 5 more years of rebuilding does not sit well with me. and shocker you mention Horcoff’s contract, Yes it sucks, and yes he is only a 3rd line player getting paid like a first. But he is still an actual NHL player. And since you are stuck with his deal you need to accept it.

    We have a bunch of prospects, who may or may not pan out. Why not turn them into actual NHLers. getting a high priced dman in his prime for 5 years on a deal is a good thing. We have a glut of forward talent and lack impact dmen (anyone who will impact the NHL roster in the next 3 years). Turn one of those “possible #2-3 dmen” and a pick into an actual #1-2 NHLer right now. I’m not saying flush all the prospects, or sign Tanguay like deals (which is what Hemsky certainly wants), but at some point you add real players, not more possible players. We are a team with a few high end talents, and a bunch of possible future players. Get some real NHLers in here, and this team will compete sooner then later. and later does not have to be 5 years.

  19. godot10 says:

    Nicholas,

    People keep saying Hemsky is a great player, and yet they keep saying that $6 million is an overpay.

    You can’t have it both ways. If he is as good as claimed, $6 million is not an overpay and is what should be expected that he gets. Plekanec earns $5 mil. They say Grabovski is going to get $5 mil. And yet Hemsky’s advocates keep up with this 4 and 3 handle nonsense.

    The Oilers can’t afford to pay Hemsky $6 million for longer than one year. I have no problem doing that for one year. But longer than that is too much for the 4th best forward on the team.

  20. Jordan says:

    “Steve Smith”,

    Steve, I appreciate that the defense needs work. But by saying it’s “thin” suggests that the issue is that be getting more defenseman, the problem will resolve itself. That is not the case. The problem with the Oilers defense core isn’t that the need more defenseman. They have 8 – that’s a fine number. The problem is that they need defensemen who can help keep the puck out of their net. That’s why I suggest the issue has more to do with who they are playing – not that they need more defenseman.

    I guess I could be being a little picky about it – the Oilers could use some upgrades on the backend for sure – more NHL-calibre players. I guess a big part of it is just that they have a reliable defender who clears the net well and helps keep pucks out in Andy Sutton (who by the way is on pace for a similar pts/games as Petry and Gilbert) – how can you say it’s thin when the coaches are playing Cam Barker instead?

    It really gets my goat.

  21. Nicholas says:

    godot10,

    I don’t think there’s any chance he is getting less than $5m/yr regardless of where he signs, unless we are talking a longterm and frontloaded (7-8yr) deal with some dead years to pull the cap down. Even on a 5-year deal it could easily be structured to be paying him $7m or 8m in the first two years.

    I agree that $6m probably is a bare minimum and could even be considered a ‘hometown discount’ on a short term deal. What about a 2-yr $13m deal? I don’t think you can go any higher than that, and even that still has Hemsky leaving a pile of cash on the table.

    If Hemsky hadn’t had two shoulder surgeries I don’t think anyone has any problem with a 5-year $25-27m deal. The reality though is that he did, and the danger isn’t so much is him getting hurt and going on the LTIR, it’s him coming back from another injury and his play falling off, leaving you with another anchor of an unmoveable contract.

  22. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    hockeyguy10:
    “Ted” Nugent

    Ah… got it. too bad for RNH. In terms of 70s guitar rock… Ted is way, way down my list. In fact, I’m not even sure he makes it on the list at all. Ho hum.

  23. Woodguy says:

    Stauffer tweeted that Barker is practicing on the 2PP unit, so he’ll play tonight.

    If I’m Babcock, Datsyuk is going over the boards every time Barker is on the ice.

    No idea of D pairings yet.

  24. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    godot10,

    I’ve heard some people (at ON for example) pull out the 4.1M cap hit as a starting point. I’m not sure why they think that is reasonable. Hemsky would do wise to simply walk away from that and not bother to counter.

    But I think most people acknowledge that the starting bid is going to be 5M per minimum (his current salary) with the length being the biggest ?. If the Oil get offered any of these deals they should seriously consider them:

    1 @ 5.75-6.5M
    2 @ 11-12
    3 @ 15-16
    4 @ 20-21

    I think 4 is as high as the Oilers would possible consider and they would probably favor the shorter side. But those all seem like realistic offers to me which most fans could accept and that the Oilers should seriously consider.

  25. Nicholas says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    I would be stunned if a UFA Hemsky (assuming he finishes the season out healthy) doesn’t get 5 @ 25-27. Assuming that Semin and Parise make it to UFA and they both go first, Ruutu is next in line and there’s already talk of him looking for $5m+. There will be teams with cap space but less desirable locations/teams who may even overpay beyond that.

    I don’t see any incentive to Hemsky signing a short (1 or 2) year deal either, even at a $6m+ overpay. Once he finishes a 2-year contract he’s over 30 and will be looking for a retirement contract. If he goes for the 5 year deal now maybe he misses out on a few million, but he’s also guaranteed himself that $25m+ even if he’s injured.

    Hemsky is absolutely agood fit for this team – I am just not sure I can convince myself that 5 years of Hemsky at north of $5m per year is a good fit.

  26. Dipstick says:

    When considering future cap hits for important positions, we should budget for the inevitable overpayments on badly negotiated contracts that will occur.

  27. bookje says:

    Very unconventional to type your response to a quote up here…

    hockeyguy10: missing something. Soun

    Ahhh, this is better, this is the established norm for placing responses, this doesn’t mess anyone up with reading things wondering ‘what the hell, the guy just quoted the response, oh wait, it looks like he responded above the quote, what the hell’.

    It may not be the better place to respond (though I think it is), but it is the established place to respond. Please conform!

  28. hunter1909 says:

    DBO: I have very little confidence in any team led by Kevin Lowe + a bunch of passengers from the 1980′s dynasty.

    In 2003 I saw what happens when Lowe trades away a pick – Zach Parise for Pouliot+Crazy Train. Or, what happens when self-appointed riverboat gambler Lowe offers 4 1st round picks for 1 year wonder Vanek. Fact is, Lowe’s a moron. A first class idiot. Can’t get a good return for Pronger? No problem! Offer Shawn Horcoff $7. million a season for the next near decade, which “proves” he’s a 1st line centre! Need to add some credibility for the Moreau – led Oilers? Lowe signs washed up Khabibulin to a multi year deal!

    Of course draft picks and prospects flop. it’s just that when a perceived and proven fool like Kevin Lowe represents you at the market, you seriously need to address all areas where he’s most likely to fuck up – and jumping up and down the draft order has been proven time and time again to be a mug’s game. Ask the California Golden Seals if they’d rather have held on to the Guy Lafleur pick.

    Or that wanker Riley Nash – who cost two high picks and basically refused to play for the team.

    Now I’m depressed.

    PS: I have no advice to offer Tambellini, the alleged GM. I don’t understand enough about the ins and outs of the salary cap etc. Neither does Kevin Lowe, of course, and he’s President of Hockey Operations.

  29. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Nicholas,

    I think we are pretty much in agreement. I wasn’t trying to think through Hemsky’s fair market value (if healthy as of his contract expiring), but what the range of $ and years I think the Oilers might actually consider.

    I’m guessing they want (if anything) a 1 or 2 year deal. I’m iffy on them chasing a 3-4, but feel pretty confident that they wouldn’t entertain a 5-6 under just about any circumstance. So if that is the Oilers term range — 1-4 with a heavy emphasis on 1-2 — then what kind of $ would it be for? Those are my best guesses.

    It will ultimately depend on how much Hemsky wants to stay in Edmonton (I’d peg it at above luke warm) and how much the Oilers want Hemsky (I’d peg it at Hoth like conditions).

  30. Dan the Man says:

    If Hemsky gets dealt to Detroit he will be an 80 point player for the next five years and everyone that wanted to run him out of town will will be the most vocal in complaining how he was traded for magic beans.

  31. Dipstick says:

    Just like any other player whose contract approaches UFA status, Hemsky has very little trade value right now. The chances of signing him for a reasonable value are slim. His agent knows that there are a few GMs that will overpay him after the season. There are limited options for the team wrt Hemsky.

  32. godot10 says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    You don’t have to go to ON to get fantansyland optimistic discounts for Hemsky. A Hemsky advocate on Lowetide just a couple of day ago post “comparables” in with 3-handles, except that many of the “comparables” were players over 35 years old.

    The other fantasy promoted by some Hemsky advocates is that after Hemsky gets his $6 million, that one is going to be able to sign Eberle and Hall for less including UFA years (either that or they are making the every more ridiculous proposition that the Oilers should offer them contracts that don’t include significant UFA years).

    The elements of the Hemsky contract delusion.
    1) Hemsky is a very good player who will take a pay cut in his prime.
    2) The Oilers can sign Eberle, Hall, and Nugent-Hopkins for 2nd contracts that pay them less than Hemsky.

  33. Nicholas says:

    Dan the Man,

    But if Tambo resigns him to a 5-year $27m deal and next season he gets Kronwalled again, returns the following year but never regains his form, then Tambo gets ripped for an unmoveable contract on a player who will never get back to his extablished level.

    Those are the two potential extremes. If you accept that a) Hemsky won’t accept a short term contract and b) he is an injury risk, I just have no idea how they can win on this one.

  34. "Steve Smith" says:

    Jordan:
    “Steve Smith”,

    Steve, I appreciate that the defense needs work.But by saying it’s “thin” suggests that the issue is that be getting more defenseman, the problem will resolve itself.That is not the case.The problem with the Oilers defense core isn’t that the need more defenseman.They have 8 – that’s a fine number.The problem is that they need defensemen who can help keep the puck out of their net. That’s why I suggest the issue has more to do with who they are playing – not that they need more defenseman.

    So you’re saying that they have enough defencemen, but that those defencemen aren’t good enough? I’d agree with that assessment. So let me rephrase the assessment from “we need more defencemen” to “we need more defencemen who are good, and fewer who are bad”.

    We have two top-four defencemen, and Smid may yet turn out to be a mirage. Then we have Petry and Sutton who are good every day bottom-pairing guys, Whitney and Potter who are acceptable number sevens (based on Whitney’s play since return from injury – he may yet recover more of his old form), and Peckham and Barker who do not belong into the NHL. That doesn’t become an acceptable defence by playing Sutton instead of Barker.

  35. Captain Obvious says:

    Woodguy:
    Stauffer tweeted that Barker is practicing on the 2PP unit, so he’ll play tonight.

    If I’m Babcock, Datsyuk is going over the boards every time Barker is on the ice.

    No idea of D pairings yet.

    We are officially through the looking glass. Check your reason at the door and enjoy the show.

  36. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    godot10,

    1) The only way a pay cut is going to happen is if they structure a long term contract creatively and/or Hemsky decides he likes Edmonton enough to stay at a modest (let’s say 5%) discount (highly unlikely, but a possibility — I know I hate moving… a lot, but I have no idea how much of an impact that makes on player decisions, probably little to none).

    2) I’m not as convinced the numbers are unworkable. In part because, if it doesn’t go to Hemsky it’s going to go to another FA signing to fill the top winger spot anyway, right? The stacked teams (Van, Chi, Wash, Pens etc.) seem to fit multiple big contracts in. But I’m not so hot at math, so I’ll let someone else take this one one.

  37. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Nicholas,

    It would be very foolish indeed to not acknowledge the risk involved in signing Hemksy. IMO, however, the risk involved in the following scenarios is higher:

    1) trade for unproven prospect and pick
    2) lose him on the FA market

  38. Captain Obvious says:

    It’s always cheaper to re-sign a player than to sign them as a free agent. Though this decreases the closer you get to the trade deadline. The time to re-sign Hemsky was in the offseason. That said, the Oilers would still get a better deal now than spending the money an other way later.

    My principles of high priced salary management would be:

    1) Use your money to re-sign your own players. Much of the value of players is dependent upon context. Therefore you can be more certain of the performance of players you already have than players on other teams.
    2) Never sign a high-priced free agent. Because of the “winner’s curse” these kinds of free agents are always overpriced.
    3) Always sign low to mid range free agents. This is the converse of #2 and where “value” is to be found.
    4) Never make lateral moves. Continuity has value.
    5) Every team has talent that has been marginalized by circumstances. Target these guys in trades. This is the converse of #1.
    6) Except for the top of the draft picks are overvalued. Don’t be afraid to trade them.
    7) Except for the top of the draft, the value of draft picks consists of quantity over quality. Get throw-ins late in the draft.

    So if we were to apply these principles to the Hemsky situation you can see how they are stuck. They’ve missed their window on re-signing him and the draft picks they get for him have very little value. The only chance to make this work is to find the player just before he breaks out. That means last year’s Jake Gardiner or Voynov. But this team has no idea who is good before they break out. Hence we took Teubert and a mid first round pick for Penner. I’d much rather have Voynov and a third or fourth round pick.

    It also means that the salary savings on Hemsky doesn’t have anywhere to go except to keep the young kids. But that means the team only gets worse because the number of good players the Oilers have just gets lower. Even if we have the money to spend on a defenseman that just means we get the newest version of Christian Erhoff (player who is overvalued because so much of value is context dependent), and the team doesn’t get any better that way.

    Add it all up and I’m fine with trading Hemsky if it meant we could get a guy like Voynov or Gardiner. But it doesn’t mean that so trading him is just pissing in the wind.

  39. Ducey says:

    Captain Obvious,

    You forgot: 8. Nothing is absolute. Each situation is unique.

    Also, I don’t think “converse” means what you think it does.

  40. cabbiesmacker says:

    Romulus Apotheosis:
    blackdog,

    I’m inclined to call Cam Barker “Gary” for some reason. “C’mon Gary… move it!”

    Or BOB Barker maybe? Any offer ST gets for him at the deadline and it’ll be “the price is right…bitch.”

  41. cabbiesmacker says:

    DBO:

    - Defense: where do we begin. The mantra 2 NHL dmen can’t be overstated. I would hope that the Oil be aggressive and make a play with their first pick (unless it’s #1) and a prospect to make a run at a player like Weber.

    Something to consider in regards to the Oilers aquiring a top end Dman i.e. Weber / Suter.
    The Wings are also rumored to be on the lookout for a top end version, have roughly $24M available to play with, and have Lidstrom with one foot out the door. Now if I’m an Elite Dman looking to sign for big bucks, longterm, somewhere and have a choice of Detroit or Edmonton?? Hmmmm..lemme ponder that a moment.

  42. Captain Obvious says:

    Ducey:
    Captain Obvious,

    You forgot: 8. Nothing is absolute. Each situation is unique.

    Also,I don’t think “converse” means what you think it does.

    Not to be a pedant but … http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/converse

    The converse of something is the other side of it, not tn the sense of the contrary or opposite but in the sense of the other side of the same thing.

  43. hunter1909 says:

    It’s unfortunate they can’t bring back the reserve clause. Because if they did, 90% of the conversation would be about pure hockey matters instead of jargonistic nonsense.

    The players don’t really want the post-reserve clause world either. Not really. After all, most of them are lower to middle class hicks – suddenly thrust into a world of big money that they cannot possibly understand. In the good old days the players were still well paid – but not to the degree where they are alienated from their families, and former friends who like it or not cannot ever see these players in the same light as before. Jealousy and mendacity follow, even within the player’s immediate families.

    Similarly, the children of hockey players grow up as rich, spoiled little shitheads. This too conflicts with the old timey hockey player children, who were more or less the same as their fathers. Being rich kids, with a relative peasant father places insufferable demands on the children – who are then ashamed of the less than proper wealthy man, unlike their friends who’s own Dad’s have either made their own fortune through the normal channels of industry and intelligence, or else inherited wealth which even still brings the breeding and soclal skills required for a happy, wealthy life.

    And finally, hockey players now attract the lowest form of women in society – the identikit blonde bimboes – who care nothing for their hockey playing bf/husbands – they’re just in it for the money. In the olden days the hockey player would meet a nice girl in junior A, marry her for life, and be happy as can be. Nowdays the players have to look over their shoulders, especially during long road trips. Spoiled, vain, selfish bimboes need a lot of attention and supervision, otherwise they end up getting into all sorts of trouble.

  44. DSF says:

    Captain Obvious,

    Much of what you say has value, especially your advise to try and find players that have marginalized on other teams.

    And that is explicitly why it’s a good idea to part ways with Hemsky.

    Given his injury history and lack of production, averaging about 30 points over the past three seasons, it would relatively simple to replace that production for far fewer dollars.

    Some examples:

    Clarke MacArthur ($3.2M)
    Chris Higgins ($1.9M)
    Curtis Glencross (jeebus) ($2.5M)
    Jussi Jokinen ($3M)

    Now, you can argue that Hemsky is a better player than all of the above, but his production is what it is.

    Making a large gamble that he will demonstrate that in the future is not smart.

  45. shawwwood says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    Romulus Apotheosis:
    blackdog,

    “Ted?” I must be missing something. Sounds funny though. I’m inclined to call Cam Barker “Gary” for some reason. “C’mon Gary… move it!”

    That is the stupidest/funniest comment I’ve seen in a while.
    Laughed for 5 minutes.
    “C’mon Gary … That was your guy”

  46. DSF says:

    And this one is for Danny who called me an idiot for suggesting Alex Edler could one day be talked about as a Norris Trophy candidate.

    “As of Wednesday morning, Edler is second in the league in points by a defenseman, with 37 (7-30). I chuckled when a player turned to me during All-Star Weekend in Ottawa and remarked he had no idea how good this Edler dude was until seeing him in person. Um, yeah.” (Pierre LeBrun)

    http://espn.go.com/blog/nhl/post/_/id/14505/trophy-tracker-norris-trophy

    Remember Danny, Edler is only 25…a few months older than Petry and younger than Smid and Gilbert.

  47. godot10 says:

    Captain Obvious:
    It’s always cheaper to re-sign a player than to sign them as a free agent.

    FALSE!

    It is always cheaper to re-sign a player or to sign a free agent if the team is a contender. The stronger the team, the easier it is to get discounts.

    Ideally, the Oilers have Hall’s and Eberle’s extensions ready to go first thing in the morning July 1 (7 years, 3 UFA years, 50 million dollars each), so they can go on a Suter hunt using Hemsky’s money, and Hall and Eberle locked up for 8 years, and control of Nugent-Hopkins for six, as a selling point.

  48. bendelson says:

    Just a thought. Can anybody put up great numbers and look all world playing with Hall and Eberle?
    It would explain Gagners huge improvement in point production in recent games. Unfortunately it may also suggest the Nuge was simply the benefactor of outstanding linemates and perhaps may not be the automatic next coming of Wayne. Sad thought really…

  49. Ribs says:

    godot10: A Hemsky advocate on Lowetide just a couple of day ago post “comparables” in with 3-handles, except that many of the “comparables” were players over 35 years old.

    Well, two out of the six players I mentioned have 35+ Contracts. I was not basing them on their age but possibly similar career paths. I said I was comfortable with a plan of watching Hemsky struggle this season and offering him $3-3.5M. That doesn’t mean that I expect the deal to be sealed and delivered at that number. It’s just a starting point. It likely means that you may end up giving him $4-4.5M in the end, which isn’t entirely crazy.

    You can look at a guy like Simon Gagne, who’s injured all of the time as well, and see that he signed for $4.5M as a free agent. The idea is to beat a number like that.

  50. Captain Obvious says:

    godot10,

    There is neither empirical nor rational evidence for your claims. Players re-sign with their own teams at a discount all the time. There are good reasons for this. First, they re-sign prior to free agency and hence make a rational exchange of money for security. Second, there are non-monetary costs to moving that has value for players and hence they exchange money for stability.

    On the other hand, players in free agency almost never sign at a discount. At best, being a contender acts as a tiebreaker.

    If the Oilers want to sign Suter the only thing that is going to matter is whether the Oilers are offering more money than other teams. Having Hall, Eberle, and Hopkins won’t save the Oilers a single cent. Players always follow the money and consider other factors only if the money is close. This doesn’t get you a discount it just gets you the privilege of overpaying for the Free agent. And high priced free agents are always overpaid.

  51. cabbiesmacker says:

    With regards to Hemsky I’ve never had the impression the guy is a 1) money pig, 2) head over heels hockey committed individual in NA to milk the system for as long or as much as he can, or 3) long term resident of NA.

    Seems more of a wrap yourself in a comfy blanket and stay at home type and as such is not looking for a big raise or a long term. I’d be willing to bet he’s looking for more of an “extension” deal – similar coin for another 3 years or so, then content to spend the remainder of his days in smoke filled Prague bars, slamming Urquells and scoping the hottest women on the planet.

    Of course he may be a money grubbing, first off the ice, pouting arsehole, with zero leadership skills and headed to Columbus for 10 years and $80 mill, in which case I retract my wager.

  52. Jordan says:

    bendelson:
    Just a thought.Can anybody put up great numbers and look all world playing with Hall and Eberle?
    It would explain Gagners huge improvement in point production in recent games.Unfortunately it may also suggest the Nuge was simply the benefactor of outstanding linemates and perhaps may not be the automatic next coming of Wayne. Sad thought really…

    Sir, you may have just found a way to move Horcoff’s contract. I tip my hat to you.

    I don’t want to know what Traktor will do for (to?) you….

  53. rickithebear says:

    Ignoring Hemsky’s: rookie and 22 game season’s:
    he has 6.7 seasons of performance.
    Hemsky: 67GM 16G 39A 55P
    Last 1.7 years: 52GM 11G 27A

    Grabovsky: ignoring his rookie season.
    He has 3.7 Seasons of performance
    Grabovsky 72GM 21G 28A
    Last 1.7 seasons 76GM 28G 30A

    A guy is near 30-30 player getting 5M is alot diffrent than claiming a 11G 27A guy is worth a 5M dollar risk to become a 16G 39A player.
    25 Players ayear achieve what Grabovski is generating last year and this year.
    Last year:
    45G 45A: Stamko, Perry.
    40G 40A: J. Iginla, D. Sedin
    35G 35A P. Marleau
    The 30G 30A to 39G 39A group averages: 5.5M
    We have a pretty good idea what Eberle and Hall will get for money.
    25G 45A guys are an average of 5.8M we know RNH price range.

    There is no way we pay Hemsky any kind of dollars talked on here. 15G 55P guys are 3.5M.
    I would rather give Mr gagner 3.5M. over 5yr.

    Dustin Penner averaged 25G 25A in his 3.75 seasons with the oilers . that puts him in the top 50 for forwards. Can we bring him back in the 3M range. it would be a huge steal.
    Ryan smyth has been 22G 28A during that period of time.

    The +20G and 50p free agents available are that covered during this time: Semin, Parise, Arnott, Doan, Joikinen, Penner, Whitney, Smyth, A. kostisyn, Prospal.

    Free agents with the best Goal totals the last two seasons.
    Semin #11 68G;
    Penner #31 55G
    Smyth #60 45G
    Grabovski #92 39G
    Doan #98 38G
    Whitney #98 38G
    Arnott #108 36G

    Not a lot of free agent forawrd help to be had this year.

    As for Draft dmen production:
    desjardins says these dmens point totals at age 22 will be:

    50 point Dmen:
    Reilly RK #8 6’0″ 190 LB 51P NHLE

    45Point Dmen
    Dumba #5 6’0″ 185lb 46P NHLE
    Ceci #12 6’3″ 205LB 46P NHLE

    40P Dmen
    Finn #29 6’0″ 185LB 40P NHLE
    Severson #32 6’2″ 200LB 40P NHLE
    Thrower #45 6’0″ 185LB 40P NHLE

    35P Dmen
    Koekkoek #15 6’2″ 185LB 35P NHLE
    Pouliot #17 6’0″ 181LB 35P NHLE

    30P Dmen
    Murray #3 6’0″ 200lb 34P NHLE
    Rhinehart #9 6’4″ 200lb 32P NHLE
    Matta #14 6’2″ 200lb 32P NHLE
    Sissons #30 6’1″ 32P NHLE
    Bystrom #41 6’1″ 187lb 32P NHLE
    Pelech #50 6’2″ 210lb 32P NHLE

    Quality dmen are available in the 30 to 50 range in this draft.

    We are best to take a large center in the draft and get dmen in the bottom 1st or upper second. round.

  54. DBO says:

    Cabbie: we won’t be able to sign a top end dman as a UFA, so that is why you deal for one, maybe at the daft. If you get Weber (for example), then adding a solid 4-6 guy isn’t hard, especially if with Weber and the progression of our kids we become an option for some ufa’s who will be happy with a slight overpay (knowing Tambo a huge overpay) and getting more years in order to be a part of the potential run of this team. Hall, Eberle, RNH will do more to attract UFA’s then anything Lowe or Tambellini can ever do.

    Deal for Weber. Sign Boychuk (local kid who may price himself out of Boston) and our D suddenly becomes a strength.

  55. Captain Obvious says:

    Signing Penner as a free agent is a great idea. He fits all the criteria I would want in a free agent. He has:

    a) an established track record of good performance
    b) a reputation that is worse than his established track record
    c) recent poor performance

    That is a perfect storm for a value FA contract considering that most GM’s always commit the cardinal sins of:

    a) overvaluing made up things (i.e. intangibles) and
    b) overreact to recent performance

    Signing Penner would be an excellent move.

  56. bookje says:

    Captain Obvious:
    Signing Penner as a free agent is a great idea.He fits all the criteria I would want in a free agent.He has:

    a) an established track record of good performance
    b) a reputation that is worse than his established track record
    c) recent poor performance

    That is a perfect storm for a value FA contract considering that most GM’s always commit the cardinal sins of:

    a) overvaluing made up things (i.e. intangibles) and
    b) overreact to recent performance

    Signing Penner would be an excellent move.

    Does intangibles include beer guts and hot dog eating contest ‘problems’?

  57. Ribs says:

    Penner also fits the mold with freak injuries. Bonus points for doing it while eating pancakes, of course.

  58. Jordan says:

    bookje: Does intangibles include beer guts and hot dog eating contest ‘problems’?

    This may just be my experience, but all of the “beer guts” I’ve ever encountered have been very tangible.

    I’d be more worried about the pancake history, personally. What with Edmonton getting its first IHOP, it just screams back injury central, no?

    That being said, if somehow he does come back here, would anyone else be interested in a lucrative franchising opportunity?

  59. cabbiesmacker says:

    bookje: Does intangibles include beer guts and hot dog eating contest ‘problems’?

    Wow. You just “pancaked” that discussion. I just hope ST doesn’t waffle on his choices. We need to be “icing” the best team possible next year and enough of all the syrupy sentiment for the past. I want to see a stacked lineup.

  60. bookje says:

    cabbiesmacker: Wow. You just “pancaked” that discussion. I just hope ST doesn’t waffle on his choices. We need to be “icing” the best team possible next year and enough of all the syrupy sentiment for the past. I want to see a stacked lineup.

    Sweet!

  61. Doogie2K says:

    Jordan:
    Why the hell is it that all of the media outlets are spewing out this nonsensical garbage that the Oilers defense is too thin?That somehow just as the team gets all of its defenders back from injury, it’s lacking depth?

    Requiring the team to be healthy to have something even close to resembling an NHL D corps is a poor strategy. But to review:

    1) Gilbert – gold.
    2) Smid – long as he’s with Gilbert or a comparable puck-mover, fine.
    3) Whitney – Barbaro.
    4) Petry – kid, but getting better.
    5) Potter – Kurtis Foster, without the injury history
    6) Sutton – Who we thought he was
    7+) Teubert, Plante, Chorney, Peckham – Kids who can’t hang in the NHL yet.

    37) Barker – Yup.

    So by my count, we have 3 top-four NHL defencemen when ready, but Whitney can’t be counted onto be 100%, so maybe 2.5. No, that’s not thin at all.

  62. Jordan says:

    cabbiesmacker,

    Quite honestly though, having Penner to do some boardswork with RNH-Ebs would sure help fill that line out. And despite all the whining about it, the man can move when he wants to.

    Since Hemsky will not be here, we will need another winger to play with Hall-Gagner. If Pajaarvi were NHL-ready, I’d suggest him, but he’s so tentative about battling. Any other wingers with size, skill, speed, and grit who would fit there?

  63. Traktor says:

    If I’m Hemsky’s agent I ask for Horcoff’s deal + inflation. 6 years, 36 million.

    I have no doubt some GM will give him that kind of money/term in the summer.

    This 3.5M one or two year deal talk is so laughable.

  64. danny says:

    DSF:
    And this one is for Danny who called me an idiot for suggesting Alex Edler could one day be talked about as a Norris Trophy candidate.

    “As of Wednesday morning, Edler is second in the league in points by a defenseman, with 37 (7-30). I chuckled when a player turned to me during All-Star Weekend in Ottawa and remarked he had no idea how good this Edler dude was until seeing him in person. Um, yeah.”(Pierre LeBrun)

    http://espn.go.com/blog/nhl/post/_/id/14505/trophy-tracker-norris-trophy

    Remember Danny, Edler is only 25…a few months older than Petry and younger than Smid and Gilbert.

    DSF, my exact response was ” Edler Norris? ” I dont know where your idiot stuff comes from.

    Edler is having a great breakout season, but Norris candidate? Nope. Not this year.

    Edler is playing 2nd pairing minutes at ES.
    He plays almost 4 minutes a night on the PP.
    Hes almost 60% zonestarts in the offensive end at ES

    His PPG is .689 which is nice
    Erhoff had a .659 with Vancouver last season.

    Everything is going right for Edler right now

    The kid is quality, but, not Norris quality. Then again Phrankeneuf was named a fnalist so you never know I guess.

  65. cabbiesmacker says:

    Jordan:
    cabbiesmacker,

    Quite honestly though, having Penner to do some boardswork with RNH-Ebs would sure help fill that line out.And despite all the whining about it, the man can move when he wants to.

    Since Hemsky will not be here, we will need another winger to play with Hall-Gagner.If Pajaarvi were NHL-ready, I’d suggest him, but he’s so tentative about battling.Any other wingers with size, skill, speed, and grit who would fit there?

    I wouldn’t have a problem with that Jordan. He seemed to operate with Gagner pretty decently in the past so he’d flesh out one line and allow RNH to play with Hall. Hemsky as their RW might make sense in that case.

    Penner – Gagner – Eberle
    Hall – RNH – Hemsky

    Doesn’t look to shabby. No clue what his feelings were about management at the time of his departure or if marriage has changed his priorities though.

  66. commonfan14 says:

    Seems like a lot of people are pretty sure that Hemsky is going to get a $6 million per year deal with term from someone this offseason if he goes UFA.

    Can anyone think of what team would actually do that?

    I personally have a hard time thinking of a team that would dedicate that significant a cap hit to a player whose best and healthiest season was 6 (6!) years ago and has been made of glass for the past three years.

    Really? That’s going to happen just because NHL GMs are dumb and it’s a poor FA crop this summer?

  67. cabbiesmacker says:

    bookje: Sweet!

    Thanks honey

  68. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    commonfan14,

    I think a handful of teams will roll the dice on Hemsky if the Oil pass up the opportunity. And I think the starting bid will be min. 5M. I don’t see his agent taking a pay cut.

    I think you are right that 6M is out of reach IF length comes into play. Not so, however, if he signs for 1-2.

    What do you expect him to get?

  69. hockeyguy10 says:

    I know I messed it up but was to busy/lazy at work to change it :-)
    bookje: Very unconventional to type your response to a quote up here…Ahhh, this is better, this is the established norm for placing responses, this doesn’t mess anyone up with reading things wondering ‘what the hell, the guy just quoted the response, oh wait, it looks like he responded above the quote, what the hell’. It may not be the better place to respond (though I think it is), but it is the established place to respond. Please conform!

  70. godot10 says:

    commonfan14:
    Seems like a lot of people are pretty sure that Hemsky is going to get a $6 million per year deal with term from someone this offseason if he goes UFA.

    Can anyone think of what team would actually do that?

    I personally have a hard time thinking of a team that would dedicate that significant a cap hit to a player whose best and healthiest season was 6 (6!) years ago and has been made of glass for the past three years.

    Really?That’s going to happen just because NHL GMs are dumb and it’s a poor FA crop this summer?

    Hemsky is NOT going to give up on $6 million till July 1. If he has to sign for less then, he will. He is not going to unilaterally surrender that in February. That is the problem.

    Why would he sign a short one year deal for $6 million in Edmonton, with Gagner or Horcoff as his centre, and he has to play behind Eberle, making it hard to reestablish 1st line status? Edmonton is not the best place to reestablish his earning power.

    Why not go to Pittsburgh for a year and be guaranteed Crosby, Malkin, or Staal, and be the undisputed #1 RW on the team?

  71. commonfan14 says:

    Any team would be crossing their fingers awfully hard even at $5 million for Hemsky with any term.

    I know his agent won’t want to bring a pay cut to him, but his value is way lower now than when he signed his last deal. And it’s not like players taking pay cuts is unprecedented, especially when their level of play is in decline. He’s not exactly entering his prime next season at 29, and it’s an old 29.

    So while I think there’s a chance a pay cut could be in play (Tanguay did it at the same age coming off far better production than Hemsky has had the last 3 years, then had to do it again the next year and never got back to big money), something like $4.5 million with term seems like a legit possibility.

    I know that’s only Thomas Fleischmann money, but is there a team that’s going to pay him more than that?

  72. godot10 says:

    godot10,

    Or LA for a year, and get Richards or Kopitar.

    Or Philly for a year to play with his buddy Jagr.

    Or Montreal for a year to play with Plekanec.

    Or Detroit for a year to play with Datsyuk or Zetterberg.

    Or Washington for a year to replace Semin.

    Or Boston for a year.

    Or Vancouver for a year.

    Or Chicago for a year, with Kane moving to centre.

    Or Nashville for a year.

    There seem to be plenty of better candidate than Edmonton for a 1-year deal.

  73. DSF says:

    Captain Obvious:
    godot10,

    There is neither empirical nor rational evidence for your claims.Players re-sign with their own teams at a discount all the time.There are good reasons for this.First, they re-sign prior to free agency and hence make a rational exchange of money for security.Second, there are non-monetary costs to moving that has value for players and hence they exchange money for stability.

    On the other hand, players in free agency almost never sign at a discount.At best, being a contender acts as a tiebreaker.

    If the Oilers want to sign Suter the only thing that is going to matter is whether the Oilers are offering more money than other teams.Having Hall, Eberle, and Hopkins won’t save the Oilers a single cent.Players always follow the money and consider other factors only if the money is close.This doesn’t get you a discount it just gets you the privilege of overpaying for the Free agent.And high priced free agents are always overpaid.

    Suter said yesterday, and I’m paraphrasing, that his situation is about more than money. He wants to play for a winner.

    The Oilers are likely a Suter UFA contract away from being a winner.

    It’s not going to happen.

  74. DSF says:

    danny: DSF, my exact response was ” Edler Norris? ” I dont know where your idiot stuff comes from.

    Edler is having a great breakout season, but Norris candidate? Nope. Not this year.

    Edler is playing 2nd pairing minutes at ES.
    He plays almost 4 minutes a night on the PP.
    Hes almost 60% zonestarts in the offensive end at ES

    His PPG is .689 which is nice
    Erhoff had a .659 with Vancouver last season.

    Everything is going right for Edler right now

    The kid is quality, but, not Norris quality. Then again Phrankeneuf was named a fnalist so you never know I guess.

    So, is Lidstrom ineligible for Norris consideration because he has an OFF Zone start identical to Edlers.

    Interesting aside…every Detroit defenseman starts in the offensive zone more than 50 percent of the time. Now that’s puck possession.

    Yes, everything is going well for him but there’s nothing unsustainable about his performance…his PDO is 1001.

    My original comment was that would be in the conversation about the Norris…and he is.

    He needs to get to another level to win…but he’s only 25.

    That’s where my “idiot stuff” comes from.

  75. spoiler says:

    Yeah, I’m afraid Captain Obvious is wrong and DSF & Godot are right… Players do sign for less money. Sometimes it’s term, but usually it is because of wantng to play for a contender. The Oilers have personal experience in this; IIRC, the most recent being a netminder last year,

  76. Gret99zky says:

    I don’t think Hemsky is going to do the team any favors when it comes to contract $ or term. He may say all the right things on the radio and during interviews but I don’t believe any of it. One year deal? Nice try.

    The first step for Oiler fans should be to go to HF Boards, find the team Hemsky is traded to, bookmark it, and stop by 3 times a day to see what that team’s fans are saying.

    “What the hell is he doing circling the zone like that?!”

    “Why doesn’t he shoot the puck!?!”

    “Jesus Christ, keep your head up! No wonder he’s always hurt!”

    and my personal favorite,

    “If he can stay healthy…yadda, yadda, yadda.”

    It will be a pleasure reading the frustrations of other fans with regards to #83.

    I just don’t see Hemsky sticking it up the backsides of his critics the way so many round these parts fear. Penner sure didn’t.

  77. Lowetide says:

    Meanwhile, in Edmonton we’ll hear “I really LIKE Ryan Jones on the 2line!” so all in all I’d rather have Ales.

  78. Gret99zky says:

    Lowetide:
    Meanwhile, in Edmonton we’ll hear “I really LIKE Ryan Jones on the 2line!” so all in all I’d rather have Ales.

    And what kind of term and $ do you think he will accept?

  79. Lowetide says:

    Gret99zky,

    I have no idea. I do know that not talking to him is a bad idea.

  80. Gret99zky says:

    Alright then what would you consider reasonable?

    And until ST confirms it we are only hearing the player’s version.

  81. godot10 says:

    Lowetide,

    Omark, Paajarvi, Hartikainen, Pitlick, perhaps Yakupov or Grigorenko to try out on the second line in the next 2 to 3 years.

    Will the Hemsky advocates explain how Hemsky is affordable? Or how to get him to sign an affordable contract, rather than just offer sentiment, or 35 year old 2nd line forwards willing to play for $3.5 million.

    I’ve always conceded that he is a good player, although differently good. But I would have chosen Penner over Hemsky, and prefer to choose Gagner over Hemsky. (Based on the way the top three have played this year, Penner would no longer be affordable either, and I would choose Gagner over him too, but Dustin is far more likely to come at a bargain price than Hemsky next year).

  82. Lowetide says:

    I’d go 3 by 5 if 83 would do it. I wouldn’t go 5 by 6. Somewhere in the middle is my breaking point.

  83. godot10 says:

    Lowetide,

    How many UFA years for Hall, Eberle, and Nugent-Hopkins should the Oilers try signing away in the second contracts?

    What do you think that is going to cost? (I think the minimum should be 3 UFA years, and that it will cost $50 million over 7 years each).

    Do you think it is wise to sign contracts with less than 3 UFA years signed away?

  84. rickithebear says:

    Dion Phanuef was the second worst defensive dman in the league the last 1.6 years in calgary.
    Toronto phanuef is much better.

    Current oilers hemsky is not worth his money. Signing Edmonton oiler hemsky to a 5M contract is idiocy. I am sure he will be more productive in the options Godot10 lists.

    But Goals wins games. preventing goals wins games. 5-6M for a20G scorer is idiocy. when you can pay a player 5-6M for 30G.

    As i have said getting 20G for 3M is what you chase.

  85. Lowetide says:

    godot10,

    Well, since we don’t know the cap for that far ahead the point is moot. Hemsky is the player Edmonton needs to concentrate on and then they will have to deal with the problem when they get to the end of 4/14′s contracts.

    If you tell me where the cap is going and what the new CBA will look like, I’ll tell you what I’d do.

  86. Bar_Qu says:

    DSF: So, is Lidstrom ineligible for Norris consideration because he has an OFF Zone start identical to Edlers.

    I think Edler is ineligible for the Norris because he plays 3 hours behind when anyone pays attention to hockey players. And the kind of middling/good numbers he puts up will fly under everyone’s radar.

    But other than those points, I grant you that he is 25.

  87. godot10 says:

    Lowetide,

    The Oilers should do Hall and Eberle’s contracts this summer to prevent any chance of an offer sheet the following summer.

    So you say 3 year @ $5 million for Hemsky. Gagner is now outproducing Hemsky. How do you argue that Gagner should take less than $5 million for any UFA years in his new contract? Remember, Gagner only has 2 more years to UFA status. With Hemsky on the roster at $5 million, that means every year beyond two years on Gagner will come with a yearly salary of $5 million. So if you give Hemsky 3 @ $5 million, it will be next to impossible to get Gagner’s next contract if it is three or four years with a cap hit under $4 million, if the 3rd year and beyond have to come in at $5 million.

  88. "Steve Smith" says:

    rickithebear:
    Dion Phanuef was the second worst defensive dman in the league the last 1.6 years in calgary.
    Toronto phanuef is much better.

    I’m going to throw something out there: if your statistical measures routinely show that kind of wild variance from year to year, they might not be very good measures.

  89. Lowetide says:

    GoDot: I think Gagner is a guy you try to sign to a value contract. By value contract I mean 3.5-4M.

    If you can’t get it done, then dealing him enters the picture. Other options include buying out Horcoff (or sending him down). Hemsky’s 3 by 5 contract doesn’t spell doom. It really doesn’t.

  90. Lowetide says:

    Plus we’re assuming Gagner is going to continue this streak. They might get him for a lot less.

    Plenty of savings on the roster. The NK dollars come off next summer and Whitney’s injury means he’s either signed for less or set free.

  91. Gret99zky says:

    Lowetide:
    I’d go 3 by 5 if 83 would do it. I wouldn’t go 5 by 6. Somewhere in the middle is my breaking point.

    If I’m Hemsky’s agent I don’t sign for ANYTHING less than Horcoff’s deal. Surely Hemsky is worth more than Horcoff to the Oilers.

  92. Lowetide says:

    Horcoff’s deal was signed at a different point in time and if you are using that as a benchmark you’re the only one.

  93. "Steve Smith" says:

    Gret99zky: If I’m Hemsky’s agent I don’t sign for ANYTHING less than Horcoff’s deal.Surely Hemsky is worth more than Horcoff to the Oilers.

    Yeah! And how did Daniel Girardi’s agent not realize that he was worth more to the Rangers than Wade Redden?

  94. Gret99zky says:

    Well if I’m a top 6 UFA looking to sign with the Oilers I sure as heck bring it up.

  95. Lowetide says:

    Which is the reason you don’t treat the guy like a redheaded stepchild. Opportunity missed here.

  96. sliderule says:

    We have too many one trick ponies Barker can pass Belanger can take face-offs .Other than that they are both shit.

  97. Gret99zky says:

    “Steve Smith”: Yeah!And how did Daniel Girardi’s agent not realize that he was worth more to the Rangers than Wade Redden?

    Redden doesn’t play in the NHL. Horcoff does.

  98. Lowetide says:

    Where’s Gagner?

  99. "Steve Smith" says:

    Gret99zky,

    So (if NMCs weren’t a concern) we could drive down Hemsky’s asking price by demoting Horcoff to the AHL? Jolly good.

  100. godot10 says:

    Lowetide,

    But you can’t get Gagner on a value contract if you are paying a less productive player (Hemsky) $5 million. Gagner is going to want $5 million for any UFA year then, which will quickly take his cap hit to $4 million on a 4-year deal.

    The only sensible option the Oilers have is to make a one year $6 million dollar offer a week before the deadline, and if he turns it down, you trade him or just roll the dice on Hemsky July 1. The only chance for a value contract on Hemsky is July 1. He has no reason to concede now.

  101. Gret99zky says:

    “Steve Smith”:
    Gret99zky,

    So (if NMCs weren’t a concern) we could drive down Hemsky’s asking price by demoting Horcoff to the AHL?Jolly good.

    Well it’s an effective way of saying, “We are not doing deals like that one anymore.”

  102. Lowetide says:

    Godot: What is your sample size for saying Gagner is better than Hemsky? Clearly that is where we disconnect.

  103. hockeyguy10 says:

    That Hemsky turnover to Stuart are the ones that drive me crazy.

  104. sliderule says:

    Please do not use the pass back and forth behind the net on the 5on3.It’s embarrassing its so lame

  105. Lowetide says:

    sliderule,

    HEY! That’s the Mike York broken hand play!

  106. hunter1909 says:

    Good job y’all have Hemsky’s good points/bad points/contract to talk about, because I’ve been watching the first period and believe me there’s nothing worth seeing from the oilers tonight.

  107. Woodguy says:

    godot10:
    Lowetide,

    How many UFA years for Hall, Eberle, and Nugent-Hopkins should the Oilers try signing away in the second contracts?

    What do you think that is going to cost? (I think the minimum should be 3 UFA years, and that it will cost $50 million over 7 years each).

    Do you think it is wise to sign contracts with less than 3 UFA years signed away?

    Godot,

    So Hall and Eberle are going to get more than Kane and Toews?

    Can you list your comparables please?

    Players getting $7M+/yr on long term contracts for their 2nd contract.

    I don’t see it being over $7M.

    If the cap goes up maybe, but the NHL is making noise of another rollback in the cap like the last lockout.

  108. Gret99zky says:

    FTR, LT, I’d love a 3x$5M. I just expect Hemmer’s side to play harder ball.

  109. Lucinius says:

    Missed the first period..

    But thus far in the second, wow. We look really bad.

  110. Lucinius says:

    And penalty kills with Smid in the box scare me.

  111. Lowetide says:

    well that’s it for me. Jeff Petry is a player. An absolute player. Thanks KP!

  112. godot10 says:

    Woodguy,

    Contenders get discounts. The Hawks won a Cup. Kane and Toews, and Keith were doing their best to keep the contender together, and they only gave up 1 UFA year.

    The Oilers have to buy control over Hall, Eberle, and Nugent-Hopkins for as long as possible, and they are a bad team, not a contender, and you want to demonstrate to elite defenseman that those three will be here if they sign as UFA’s.

    Stamkos got $7 giving up 1 UFA year. Tavares got $5.5 giving up 2 UFA years. As a cap percentage $7 million now getting three UFA years is effectively less than Stamkos got.

    True, $6 million may get you 1 UFA year, but do you really only want to buy 1 UFA year? Your really shorten the window buying only 1 year.

    I want the Oilers to try buying 3 UFA years, and I think that will cost $7 million.

  113. Gret99zky says:

    The Gagner Strikes Back.

  114. Kert says:

    Strange sequence there, but nice finish from Gagner.

  115. russ99 says:

    You go, Samwise.

    The Red Wings are running a perfect trap tonight, and Renney is yet to respond and change the strategy to break it…

  116. OilClog says:

    Gagner!… whoa potter with a defensive play.. did that goal maybe wake them up?

    I love when they throw up the stats.. oilers have only won 4 times out of the last 16 games played here.. NO SHIT! I think that’s our motto around the entire league.. except for the east, we may still having a winning record against east teams because of the 80′s. Atleast .500 .. maybe. Hell I’d take .400

  117. godot10 says:

    Doughty got $7 million giving up 4 UFA years.

  118. godot10 says:

    Kopitar got $6.8 million giving up 3 UFA years

  119. Woodguy says:

    godot10:
    Woodguy,

    Contenders get discounts.The Hawks won a Cup.Kane and Toews, and Keith were doing their best to keep the contender together, and they only gave up 1 UFA year.

    The Oilers have to buy control over Hall, Eberle, and Nugent-Hopkins for as long as possible, and they are a bad team, not a contender, and you want to demonstrate to elite defenseman that those three will be here if they sign as UFA’s.

    Stamkos got $7 giving up 1 UFA year. Tavares got $5.5 giving up 2 UFA years.As a cap percentage $7 million now getting three UFA years is effectively less than Stamkos got.

    True, $6 million may get you 1 UFA year, but do you really only want to buy 1 UFA year? Your really shorten the window buying only 1 year.

    I want the Oilers to try buying 3 UFA years, and I think that will cost $7 million.

    I’d like them to get 3+ UFA years as well.
    I don’t think that Hall or Eberle has the production to be a Taveres or Stamkos comp. I’m not in front of a computer so I don’t have the numbers in front of me.

    Eberle is closer to those players than Hall in tems of production, but I don’t think either one is there yet.

  120. Woodguy says:

    A 4 on 4 and Renney sends out 6 and 13.

    Corey Cross and Tom Poti think that pairing is slow.

  121. Woodguy says:

    Is Eberle hurt?

    Wasn’t on either powerplay unit.

  122. pboy says:

    Is Sutton hurt or does the coaching staff honestly believe that Gary gives them a better chance to win?

  123. Gret99zky says:

    If this “Gary” stuff means what I think it means it’s pretty damn funny. I find myself laughing at the thought of it more and more.

  124. Lowetide says:

    WG: Don’t know.

    PBOY: I think a trade is close.

  125. Woodguy says:

    There’s 14

    *whew*

  126. Lucinius says:

    Even though I’m actually a fan of everyone on the 10-91-83 line.. and a fan of Smid.. that’s about as close as one can get to the supremely snake-bitten/non productive 4 people you could throw over the boards in the league atm.

  127. Gret99zky says:

    Return of the Gagner

  128. Lucinius says:

    And that is what Paajarvi needs to do more often.

  129. Gret99zky says:

    The Detroit Streak is officially in jeopardy.

  130. LMHF#1 says:

    Good move by Magnus there, but why didn’t he roof it? Really strange shooting choice. Thank goodness for #89.

  131. Lowetide says:

    Okay, to hell with Hemsky. Give Gagner 10 million!

  132. Woodguy says:

    That’s two shifts in a row where 91 takes the puck to the net hard.

    That’s really nice to see.

    EDM shouldn’t be in this game, DET is really shitting the bed.

    I hope Gagner’s hot streak lasts until he’s 30.

  133. pboy says:

    I’ve been a big fan of 10 for a long time and a supporter of him here but I haven’t “seen him good” in an awful long time. I can’t help but wonder if he might be finished as a heavy lifter in the NHL.

    Cue Traktor……

  134. Woodguy says:

    Jesus, nobody collapse to the net ok?

    WTF was Belanger, Barker, Potter and Petrell thinking?

    Also,

    Jones lost his 3rd line job to Petrell?

  135. Lowetide says:

    Well, in fairness Barker was waiting for the crosstown bus.

  136. Lucinius says:

    Regarding 10 I think his problem is ice time. I haven’t looked at TOI numbers, but I really think he needs to play less. 5v5 and maybe some PK time and that’s it. But he has not looked good the last 10-12 games.

  137. DeadmanWaking says:

    The reason Hemmer is so divisive is because he triggers loss aversion on both sides of the fence: damned if you do, damned if you don’t–it could go either way. Also the human brain contains the magic number 5. Five positive comments equals one negative comment (in the mind of the recipient). Probabilities around 20% (1 in 5) drive us batty. At one in ten, we decide to tune it out and model it as a rare event. At 50-50, the statistics of repeated coin flips are fairly predictable. Win some, lose some. But at 20% you can get three in a row, or not see one for 15 straight flips. The brain doesn’t know which model to use, so it obsesses.

    There’s about a 1 in 5 chance he embarrasses us for half a decade playing somewhere else, and about an equal 1 in 5 chance he’s stage four of Ryan Whitney condition. Those are mighty fat tails.

    Players don’t always pursue money over everything else. That’s crazy talk. But one needs to remember that the size of your contract is a proxy for something else: your role and the ice time you’re given. Take too big a homer discount and your first PP minutes turn into second PP minutes. How often do fans rant that because of contract size XXX, the guy shouldn’t be doing YYY, even when it’s plainly apparent to the coach, that YYY is the one thing he can really count on while the individual sorts out his issues? Contract size is every fan’s favorite fickle friend. One minute the rant is BPA, the next minute the rant is not BRA (best role available). No, the rant is “your best guys (meaning most expensive) have to be your best guys”. For a guy who didn’t care about the money, it’s galling to find it driving the bus (from behind the bench). Negotiate for a little more than you’re worth, you’ll get more second chances. And what 30 year old player doesn’t want to tuck an extra second chance into his golf bag? (Take a lot more than you’re worth, your second chance might detour through the Hershey Bears. Your agent, however, continues to sit in the same old comfy chair. So keep your eyes on that greedy bastard.)

    The other thing about Hemmer is that the team around him has been a moving target over these past two seasons. We still don’t know which of Eberle, Hall, or Nuge will turn out to be the best player. Nuge’s performance on the PP unit surely opened some eyes just two short months ago. If Hemmer wanted those minutes going forward, he’s rethinking things, too.

    The best fit for Hemmer is a short, high value contract with a contender, or a longer term lower value contract providing entertainment value in seasons that end on xmas morning (he knows the deal). Winning teams won’t afflict themselves with Hemmer’s injury volatility for more than a couple of years.

    Furthermore, with the very short chain our GM and coach are wearing, they can’t take the chance of losing another season to a Whitney condition. Not even one in five. They’re overdue already to take the fall. Losing Hemmer to another team could be ugly, too. I don’t envy the decision.

    Hemmer is a perfect fit for a team with an upside opportunity: remote chance of making the playoffs, coach and GM already on the short leash, but a great season from Hemmer could push them over the hump (and spare their incompetent asses to double down on risky business for yet another season). They can even give him a longer team deal to entice him. If he blows up, they’re gone: his ugly contract lands on some other GM foolish enough to inherit the mess.

  138. Gret99zky says:

    Gret99zky:
    The Detroit Streak is officially in jeopardy.

    scratch that. zeddy gets off the snide. freakin slumpbustin oil

  139. pboy says:

    Petrell can’t take a pass from guy’s on either team.

  140. LMHF#1 says:

    Pathetic efforts by Khabibulin on both of those. Didn’t help that our horrendous 3rd and 4th lines were out as well. Brutal.

  141. Maverick says:

    Cam Barker is awesome!! I think we need to resign him! (sarcastic)

  142. Woodguy says:

    4th line with Potter/Barker against Z.

    What could go wrong?

  143. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    C’mon Dave! If Zetterberg wants to dance… fill out your card!

  144. sliderule says:

    Urgent message for Tambo.Would you please tape barkers stick to his gloves.It keeps slipping out of his hands.

  145. OilClog says:

    Urgent message to Tambo: What were you thinking?

  146. Maverick says:

    Another 22 minutes for Horcoff…..SIGH.
    5 minutes more than Gagner and Hall and Eberle. SIGH.

  147. Lucinius says:

    Down by two, goalie pulled, about a minute to go.. and Belanger’s line is on the ice with Barker.

    I know the Oilers didn’t exactly play well, but god damn. Renney is just baffling with some of his decisions as to when he puts certain lines out there.

  148. hags9k says:

    -I hope Mr. Bunz is on the fast track.

    -I don’t think Hemmer could have looked less intense on that puck down the LW with the ho hum wrister. Who wants a GWG anyways… We can all debate the merit or stupidity of trading him until we are blue in the face but if he is dealt it is because he wanted to go..

    -Uh Barker that was Texaco in your rearview about 50 miles back….NEXT.

  149. rickithebear says:

    LT: 10M that is the problem with hemsky lovers, you want to throw money away. 3.5M

  150. DSF says:

    Hemsky absolutely dogging it in the last minute.

  151. CrazyCoach says:

    Haven’t really been posting lately, nor kept up my OCD-like behaviour with all things Oil. Unfortunately, school has been a priority lately. Damn nutrition course. Why do you have to be so hard and more frustrating than watching the Oilers 4th line? Why is my professors marking style so cryptic like Tom Renney’s bench management schemes? Why do I have such a maddening style of procrastination like Tambo and his handling of Hemsky?

    Oh well, I write my final exam next Wednesday. At least one sense of frustration will be over then.

    Now back to the books….

  152. "Steve Smith" says:

    rickithebear,

    I think it’s at least possible that LT was kidding.

  153. Ducey says:

    Barker -6 in the last two games.

    Hemsky shut out. 6 pts in his last 10 games. 11 pts in his last 19.

  154. Traktor says:

    Crazycoach: How can you say our 4th line is bad? Ben Eager has more goals then Hemsky. That’s depth, baby!

  155. DSF says:

    Olli Jokinen ($3M cap hit) has 14 goals and 42 points.

    Remember when we all made fun of Calgary for signing him because we had Horcoff.

    Fun times.

  156. Woodguy says:

    The only good news of the game is that 4,89,14 with 58,5 outshot the Datsyuk, Bertuzzi, Franzen, White, Lidstrom grouping.

    That’s pretty awesome.

    They almost sawed off on scoring chances as well.

    Every other line got killed via shots as usual vs. DET.

    Barker and Potter were -10 and -11 on shots that got through playing mostly against Stuart, Ericksson, Kronwall, Miller, Helm, Kindl.

    Also,

    Pajaarvi lead all forwards with 13:59 of 5v5 TOI. I think he earned it too.

    91,10,83 actually outchanced Zetterburg, Filpula, Hudler, Kronwall, Stuart (Stuart shows up in a lot of Oilers’ top 5 vs TOI, man plays a lot of minutes), but they were outshot by about 6 shots.

    Barker was -3. Potter and Lander -2, a handful of guys at -1 and 0, Smid, Petry and Gagner were all +1.

    When Barker returned from injury his 5v5 ONSV% was an unholy .980. As of yesterday it was .948 (still highest of any Oiler who has played 15 games) after 4 games back. I’d imagine its dropping again.

  157. Woodguy says:

    DSF:
    Olli Jokinen ($3M cap hit) has 14 goals and 42 points.

    Remember when we all made fun of Calgary for signing him because we had Horcoff.

    Fun times.

    Canucks fans were happy that they had Horcoff?

  158. Traktor says:

    DSF:
    Olli Jokinen ($3M cap hit) has 14 goals and 42 points.

    Remember when we all made fun of Calgary for signing him because we had Horcoff.

    Fun times.

    lol

    5×5 tonight:

    Horcoff 13:31
    Gagner 11:31

    Hemsky 13:57
    Eberle 11:46

  159. till_horcoff_is_coach says:

    TSN recap men so bad they whiff on Barker’s narrative “Cam Barker – he can’t handle anybody the last few games”. I hate agreeing with those guys.

  160. Ribs says:

    DSF: Remember when we all made fun of Calgary for signing him because we had Horcoff.

    Hmm… I don’t remember this at all. It must be one of those invisible gorilla things…Or something.

    The mental breakdowns right in front of the Oilers net have been killers the last few games. Some truly stupid decisions lately.

    Paajarvi asserting himself! Your welcome, Mr. Gagner!

    Speaking of Gagner gifts, that Jones backhand pass up the middle was beautiful. That’s tough to pull off with the needed velocity.

    Who is this Drew Miller and why does he always have to score? Is he drinking the same goats blood as MP Freakin’ Bouchard? We don’t need any more of that sort of thing. Really.

  161. Lowetide says:

    I think the Oilers have struck on a brilliant plan. Showcase your shitty players! I think Barker might get 35 minutes on Saturday.

  162. DSF says:

    Woodguy: Canucks fans were happy that they had Horcoff?

    And then that pesky Jokinen fellow goes and scores another goal and assists on another one.

    Make that 15 goals and 44 points.

  163. DSF says:

    Lowetide:
    I think the Oilers have struck on a brilliant plan. Showcase your shitty players! I think Barker might get 35 minutes on Saturday.

    How about Horcoff?

    Lowetide:
    I think the Oilers have struck on a brilliant plan. Showcase your shitty players! I think Barker might get 35 minutes on Saturday.

  164. Lowetide says:

    DSF,

    Horcoff? Horcoff’s the vaunt.

  165. Traktor says:

    DSF: And then that pesky Jokinen fellow goes and scores another goal and assists on another one.

    Make that 15 goals and 44 points.

    3G, 1A now

  166. oilersfan says:

    The year MAciocia got fired the Esks had a DB named Jonte Buhl. He was as bad of a DB as I can remember in the CFL. Every time the other team needed a first down or a TD they passed to the man Buhl was supposed to be covering. After awhile, the other db’s noticed this and always cheated to try to help Buhl in coverage. Of course, this led to the entire defence being in shambles. After about 8 games Richie Hall finally cut Buhl, and not surprisingly the defence became substantially better just by getting rid of one player. He was such a weak link it was shocking that the esks took so long to get rid of him, and it was astounding how one player could make such a difference.

    Now in the CFL, the rosters are small, especially for import DB’s so if they are on the game roster they tend to play the whole game on defence, so they can’t be hid.

    It is shocking to me that only playing one third of a game that Cam Barker can be such a glaring weakness for this team. I couldn’t remember him being good or bad in the early part of the season so I asked Bruce how his scoring chance plus minus was, and he responded that it was the worst on the team. I wonder if Sutton played against the Leafs and the Wings tonight if the OIlers might have won both? It is beyone belief what a difference in play when Barker is on the ice. I am a long suffering 42 year old oilers fan who can say without a doubt that Cam Barker is the worst defenceman to ever play for the team, and I am counting Gordie Mark and Corey Cross.

    Cam Barker makes MA Bergeron look like Rod Langway in his own zone.

    Cam Barker makes Gordie Mark look like Larry Robinson at reading which forward to cover on the cycle.

    Cam Barker makes Sebastien Bisaillon look like Ray Bourque when an opposing forward is coming down the wing on the attack.

    I am astounded that a pro coach like Renney and Krueger let that sorry excuse for a beer leaguer play tonight after the -3 in Toronto that somehow got attributed to Ales Hemsky. The only reason Hemsky was -4 against Toronto was that he had the misfortune to be on the ice at the same time as Cam Barker for 3 goals plus the empty netter.

    Yet for some reason Stove top Stauffer is advocating to re-sign Cam “I wish I was as good as Jason Strudwick” Barker and trade Ales “I am having a bad season but will get 80 points next year” Hemsky.

    Tonight may be my lowest as an Oilers’ fan as memories of Hemsky are fading into a Weight/Guerin/Coffey/Gretzky sort of way before he is gone and we will be forced to watch another 2 months and 20 games of Beer league Barker.

    I am going to email this to Stove Top tomorrow to see if he reads it.

    LT thanks for this board to have a place to vent and commiserate with my fellow long sufferers.

  167. Woodguy says:

    How bad defensively do you have to be that Lennart Petrell takes your spot on the 3rd line?

    I guess the percentages finally caught up to Jones.

    Who knew?

  168. hunter1909 says:

    Great gallows humour tonight around here. Sad, nay very sad when the entire fucking league tells oiler fans exactly the same thing – great young forwards, nearly everyone else blows.

    What about Potter? He flat out stinks, and has got himself a Horcoffian(albeit miniature) three year contract ffs.

    Why doesn’t Tambellini waive him, just for fun? Who would even bother to claim him, the Charlestown Chiefs?

    Gotta love the way oilers regard their 50 man roster, through thin, and thinner.

  169. stevezie says:

    I missed the game. Barker make any converts?

  170. HeavySig says:

    stevezie,

    Well all I got out of it was that Barker has a new nickname; “Gary.”

    Not sure why, but if I had to guess, it would be referring to Spongebob’s pet snail.

Leave a Reply

Want to join the discussion?
Feel free to contribute!

Leave a Reply

© Copyright - Lowetide.ca