G57 Avalanche at Oilers

Lots of cool people are from Denver. Phillip Bailey from Earth, Wind & Fire, Pam Grier, Roy Halladay, Karl Rove–all the good ones. The two I’ll never forget are Peter Forsberg and Burnaby Joe. The Oilers are extremely unlikely to get the 2.0 version of those two crazy talents, but the Hall-RNH combo looks pretty damn good early.

The Nuge has been out for so long I can barely remember the sublime passes, the sixth sense around the net and the anticipation that bordered on Keonesque. I sure hope he returns, my short term memory isn’t what it was, well, awhile back. I think the Oilers probably have three keepers up front in Hall, RNH and Jordan Eberle, plus Sam Gagner has done a lot to impress lately. I’d like to remind you that last season’s 5×5/60 for Gags (1.91) looks fine next to this year’s number (2.33).

Let’s say we’re running this team. If you had 4 terrific young talents up front but nothing resembling same in the backfield, would you:

  1. trade one of the four;
  2. offer sheet a defenseman with a complete skill set?
  3. draft a defenseman with a wide range of skills and hope he develops quickly?
  4. hire a bunch of 6′s and 7′s and 9′s.

Oilers made a small deal yesterday, it’s uncertain who would have pulled the trigger (Tambellini, Olczyk, Bill Scott) but it looks like an interesting trade. Rodney’s scouting report has been around the Oilogopshere (McCurdy, C&B) so you know we’re dealing with a mid-20′s chaos defender with offensive ability. His AHL/NHL contract (250/525) implies someone thought enough of him to pay real money, and he has posted a couple of nice seasons in the AHL.

Looks like a minor deal, but you never know.

O’Marra gets a nice chance with a new club, this one a little shy down the middle. ROM earned a reputation for being a quality 2-way center and faceoff man, and a little shy offensively. You never know.

This doesn’t quite close the books on the Ryan Smyth trade, but with Alex Plante being used for target practice in the AHL one could argue that’s all she wrote. The ship has long sailed on the argument, but my belief has always been the major error in the Smyth fiasco was the team’s lack of urgency summer 2006. Leaving your best forward out on a limb and signing lesser lights to extensions is bad form at the low end and business suicide at the outer marker.

The new hire does have some NHL experience.

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148 Responses to "G57 Avalanche at Oilers"

  1. mattwatt says:

    I am still perplexed by this move. Lowballing your star free agent, while giving a depth defender money he could never get. Some say there is a method to this madness, I for one would like to know what that is. Hemsky is going to get paid, at least 3 years or more at 5 million or more. Why then burn all goodwill you have built with the player by waiting till the end to negotiate and offering a short-term contract? Only reason I can see is because Hemsky’s shoulder, in the eye of Oiler’s management, is in complete disrepair and not worth the gamble. If that is their view, nothing one can do but accept it in this instance.

    However, if Hemsky goes out and rips it up for 3 years notch up another checkmark for why this regime needs to be tossed out. I know some say feel that the regime will be proved right and that Hemsky will flop, but I will bet on the former of this paragraph occurring, not the latter.

    My mind can picture TamLowe watch Hemsky rip it up for another team in the playoffs, and respond by signing Hall and Eberle to some ridiculous contracts in the offseason. Crazy to say, but I don’t think this is far off from happening in the least.

  2. Truth says:

    Well this is easy. Sign Ryan Suter as a UFA this summer and then Shea Weber the next.

    In all seriousness, I think the addition of one good to great d man is necessary. If Whitney gets a summer in which he can actually work out and train I believe he will be much improved next year. Gilbert was actually looking good before injury (which could have been much worse). Petry looks great lately hopefully he can keep improving. Smid is finally realizing his potential. Sutton is a great depth guy. Peckham, there were glimpses last year, maybe he regains form? We all know the development curve of young defensemen. Barker SHOULD be gone next year, let him walk.

    Given the above, I would love to see the Oilers pry Fowler out of Anaheim. Pipedream? He is having a horrible year in comparison to last, and there was talk of the Ducks trading one of their trhee elite forwards. If they are dumb enough to even contemplate that maybe Fowler would be available as well. Hemsky, 1st – 2013, and prospect D?

  3. mattwatt says:

    Truth,

    Is that the market for an top prospect in Fowler? A proven talent that coming off this injury will again be a top 50 NHLer, a likely top 10 pick, and one of the prospect D’s for someone far from finished? Oilers need help now on the blueline, not possibly 3 years from now if all goes well.

    Issue with guys like Fowler is that youth is always promised, but often not given. Oilers need a sure thing, not another possible top-4 in three years (Fowler’s best outcome) or Cam Barker (Fowler’s worse outcome).

  4. Woodguy says:

    Another winnable game for the Oilers.

    Duchene still out with a knee injury. COL 3-5-2 in the last 10.

    EDM 15-8-4 at home, COL 12-13-3 on the road.

    If EDM had COL pts% on the road, they would have 62pts, be 10th in the conference and have 2 games in hand on CAL.

    Not sure how much COL road record is smoke and mirrors as they are 7-1 in SO (4 of those wins on the road) so its a big of smoke and mirrors, but not a pile.

    I think this tells us that COL will be a playoff team before the Oilers. You have to be able to win on the road.

    They key to being able to win on the road is scoring despite not dictating the match ups and this requires depth in scoring.

    The Oilers are about to get thinner in scoring, not deeper, but so I don’t see this improving much, if at all next year.

    Some D who can play top 4 minutes and move the puck will help a ton too.

    5-3 Oilers tonight

    MPS gets 1, Hemsky gets 2 assists, Eberle scores another that makes everyone shake their head and Jones breaks his drought with an empty net goal.

    Go Oilers!!

    *clap, clap*

  5. Truth says:

    mattwatt,

    Fair enough I am just speculating. I admittedly don’t know what it would actually take. I would consider that fair however, especially if it is known the Oilers are unable to sign Hemsky to a deal.

    Sure, Fowler could turn into Barker but so could that 1st round pick. Only he could turn into Barker 3 years later.

  6. Woodguy says:

    Ritch Winter talks about the day Glen Sather punched him.

    Winter’s blog has quickly become a *must-read*

    The man has opinions and isn’t afraid to share them.

  7. spoiler says:

    mattwatt:
    I am still perplexed by this move. Lowballing your star free agent, while giving a depth defender money he could never get.

    Zero actual evidence for the bolded portion of this statement.

  8. mattwatt says:

    spoiler,

    You are correct. We technically do not know what Sutton would get, since he never went to free market. However, Tyler and others have shown that Sutton was paid above average when compared to other players of similar ilk.

    Why is it wrong for shaking your head at Tambo when he signed a player for 1.5+.3 in bonuses that is likely above his fair value. Or are you saying that Sutton would receive that same salary if he was to enter free agency? What information do you have that Sutton would receive that money? I don’t know if Sutton would receive those funds, nor would you. In all likelihood though, he would likely not receive that pay day on the free market than receiving it.

    I like Sutton as a player, and had no issue with signing him. What I have issue with is the price tag. Oiler’s brass has a strange way of allocating funds, Sutton’s signing is another example of this.

    Truth,

    Yeah, I don’t know what the market for Fowler is either, and I am far from certain that the likely top-10 pick next year will be a surefire hockey player. Just seemed like the price you stated was a bit high, but one has to start from somewhere in proposals like this. I know if I was Duck’s brass, I would be asking for what you are offering.

  9. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    LT: “my belief has always been the major error in the Smyth fiasco was the team’s lack of urgency summer 2006. Leaving your best forward out on a limb and signing lesser lights to extensions is bad form at the low end and business suicide at the outer marker.”

    Exactly… fiddling at the margins is a colossal waste of time in the time precious days leading up the TD when there are serious deals to be made via signing or trading.

    The Hockey world is learning again and again that Edmonton is the place to send magic beans (We’re open for business Cam Barker!) and to keep actual NHL talent away from.

  10. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Hey LT, does #2 mean sign via “offer sheet” i.e., poach a player, and/or sign via free agency?

    If only the former, do you not include free agency on your list because you assume the Oilers can’t snag a big name that way? i.e., even if we offered the right $ and term to Weber he’s not coming here?

  11. Dalton says:

    Trading Ryan O’Marra away has broken my heart. Broken my damn heart. He was my favourite player on the Barons after Brule left and I wanted him to swap places with Lander. Ryan is a hard working guy, always staying after practice and training to improve his skating, fighting, shooting, and theory. I always thought he’d be an Oiler some day…

    Broken my damn heart.

  12. rickithebear says:

    Woodguy: The Oilers are about to get thinner in scoring, not deeper, but so I don’t see this improving much, if at all next year.

    You Mean thinner in Assisting. Hemsky’s scoring is easily replaced by an AHL Quality Scorer .

  13. copperblueandwhite says:

    Woodguy,

    Woodguy, Avs will have to go with Varlomov in the nets as Giggy has a groin pull…I agree, if our goaltender shows up in the first ten minutes we’ll win this game…Shea Weber , Anton Volchenkov and Getzlaf would make us a contender and sign Hemmer for the love of gawd!!

  14. Braintrust says:

    If we could get Cam Fowler without having to give up unreasonable compensation in return, that would be a big step forward for our team. I watched him play many games when he was with the Windsor Spitfires, and he had (and still does) have “Blue Chip Prospect” written all over him. That would reuinte him with Hall, and while we are at it, why not also go for Ryan Ellis? You have to not only think about talent, but also chemistry. Tambellini needs to think “creatively” and make a couple of serious deals. Here’s his chance….

  15. Captain Obvious says:

    ” trade one of the four;
    offer sheet a defenseman with a complete skill set?
    draft a defenseman with a wide range of skills and hope he develops quickly?
    hire a bunch of 6′s and 7′s and 9′s.”

    Why are these the only options?

    I think these are all bad ideas. Instead we should try and trade for undervalued defensemen on teams close to the cap. I’ve said it before but guys like Sekera, Cobourn, or Vlasic. Or to turn it around, guys like Gilbert. Good defensemen get traded every offseason. If you pick your moment you can get a real steal–for instance San Jose robbing Minnesota last year of Brent Burns.

  16. Woodguy says:

    rickithebear: You Mean thinner in Assisting. Hemsky’s scoring is easily replaced by an AHL Quality Scorer .

    Yes, Horcoff and MPS get those goals against OTT regardless because every Oiler makes those plays and those passes.

    In other new Kurri would have scored all those goals with Ken Linesman as his center.

  17. nathan says:

    “I know some say feel that the regime will be proved right and that Hemsky will flop, but I will bet on the former of this paragraph occurring, not the latter”

    mattwatt,

    No one will be proved right or wrong. The injury history might reduce cap hit by say 0.5M and the average gm’s appetite for length by say 1 year. That might affect who top bids depending on appetite for risk, cap structure etc. But that doesn’t mean the 29 GM’s that don’t top bit were wrong if he matches the league wide injury rate going forward. And if he busts his femur that won’t prove the he’s all washed up crowd right.

  18. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Woodguy,

    But an AHLer can duplicate Hemsky’s GOALS!!! that’s all that matters. Omark, or MPS can do that. All a good GM needs to worry about is Goals.

    What’s that…? Who’s going to set up Omark/MPS’ linemates for Goals? Their Goal totals will suffer!? That’s crazy talk. They score goals now and we all know that assists don’t matter. Therefore, they will score goals later. It’s simple!

  19. DSF says:

    “And of course the biggest name of all, when it comes to defensemen on the trade market, is Jack Johnson in Los Angeles. I had a few team executives this week tell me he’s in play but only for the type of deal that hands the Kings the top-line forward they’ve been craving. Shut out 1-0 at home by Phoenix Thursday night, I have to imagine Kings GM Dean Lombardi will be even more determined in his efforts to land Rick Nash. Jeff Carter and Ales Hemsky are other possibilities. The Kings can’t score and must make the playoffs. Lots of pressure there. ”

    - Pierre LeBrun

    http://tinyurl.com/7xvap9a

  20. Woodguy says:

    DSF:
    “And of course the biggest name of all, when it comes to defensemen on the trade market, is Jack Johnson in Los Angeles. I had a few team executives this week tell me he’s in play but only for the type of deal that hands the Kings the top-line forward they’ve been craving. Shut out 1-0 at home by Phoenix Thursday night, I have to imagine Kings GM Dean Lombardi will be even more determined in his efforts to land Rick Nash. Jeff Carter and Ales Hemsky are other possibilities. The Kings can’t score and must make the playoffs. Lots of pressure there. ”

    - Pierre LeBrun

    http://tinyurl.com/7xvap9a

    I’ve got a really bad feeling that v3.2 trades Gagner for Johnson.

    Johnson is a faster, slightly better version of Barker.

    That trade would set back the Oilers in a big way.

  21. bookje says:

    You know, I am tired of people slagging Cam Barker.

    Cam Barker is the last person off the ice in practices. Cam Barker’s body language exudes positive energy and ambition. Cam Barker is big (6’3″ – 225lbs).

    I don’t see how you can look at those stats and not think Cam Barker is a good hockey player.

  22. TheOtherJohn says:

    Woodguy: I’ve got a really bad feeling that v3.2 trades Gagner for Johnson.Johnson is a faster, slightly better version of Barker.That trade would set back the Oilers in a big way.

    Well if it is a setback, probably even money then that Jack Johnson will be an Oiler then.

    Winnipeg might be prepared to move Bogosian or Enstrom to get a scorer. Just have to make sure there are lots of GOALS as opposed to points traded to them

  23. Woodguy says:

    bookje:
    You know, I am tired of people slagging Cam Barker.

    Cam Barker is the last person off the ice in practices.Cam Barker’s body language exudes positive energy and ambition.Cam Barker is big (6’3″ – 225lbs).

    I don’t see how you can look at those stats and not think Cam Barker is a good hockey player.

    Don’t forget that Stauffer said the Oiler brass were really impressed that he worked hard to get in shape after his injury.

    Put a letter on that guy’s jersey!

  24. Lois Lowe says:

    Dalton:
    Ryan is a hard working guy, always staying after practice and training to improve his skating, fighting, shooting, and theory.I always thought he’d be an Oiler some day…

    So he’s bizzaro Hemsky?

  25. TheOtherJohn says:

    Bookje

    You forgot the FIRST magic words “He is a former top 3 draft pick” and also add ” while injured, he used the down time to get in shape”

    Only in Edmonton you say

  26. Ribs says:

    bookje: Cam Barker is the last person off the ice in practices.

    Why would that not be a surprise.

  27. DSF says:

    Woodguy: I’ve got a really bad feeling that v3.2 trades Gagner for Johnson.

    Johnson is a faster, slightly better version of Barker.

    That trade would set back the Oilers in a big way.

    He’s a younger version of Tom Gilbert.

    And he has more goals than Hemsky. :)

  28. "Steve Smith" says:

    …and Ribs wins the thread.

  29. Woodguy says:

    DSF: He’s a younger version of Tom Gilbert.

    And he has more goals than Hemsky.

    He’s a terrible, young version of Gilbert.

    My mom has more goals than Hemsky this year.

  30. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Woodguy:
    My mom has more goals than Hemsky this year.

    Give ST her agent’s number.

  31. VOR says:

    Back to being serious for a moment.

    I am 100% with Captain Obvious on this one. Go after undervalued and emerging targets on other teams and in free agency. At the top end of the line up if the rumors of Winnipeg being unhappy with Tobias Enstrom he is your prime target (I’m pretty sure Bogosian is no longer in play which is a shame). Sekera would be great 3-4 depth who could play some 2 minutes without dragging you down. We have to get deeper on D and upgrade some of the D we have. Cobourn and Vlasic would be great but while they are underappreciated around the NHL I am not sure the same can be said for their teams. You could go guts out and try to sign Carle or Wideman. I just am not sure any of that is going to happen. Jack Johnson is going the wrong way so might happen.

    There could be an easier way. Not that the Oilers like the easy way. First you sign Shane O-Brien if he reaches free agency. He can slot in and out of your line up. He has been as high as 2 in Tampa and is currently 3/4 in Colorado. He gets some offence and has the reputation of being “hard to play against”. Think of him as insurance against top 4 injuries.

    Lets pretend Barker is going to be our 7-D next year (perish the thought). Don’t renew him and sign Tampa Bay’s #10 D, Bruno Gervais. He is what the Oilers hoped to get in Barker, calm in his own end, wins a lot of puck battles, blocks shots, etc. He rose as high as #2 with the Islanders and played well 1.1 Corsi with zone start finish something like 42/48 and 115 blocked shots. He generates almost all his offense at EV since he doesn’t get power play time. He is proving in Tampa that in sheltered minutes he can kill Fenwick. He is getting something like 65% OZ starts versus a career average close to 45. He is also producing far more offense per minute. In other words he is calm, verstaile, and really cheap. He will probably sign for Potter money. A guy with more than 300 games in the NHL.

    Then you need time for Teubert to mature. My choice would be an offensive D-Man. Tampa Bay has an interesting prospect, Mark Barberio. Massive offensive talent stuck in the AHL because he used to panic under pressure. This year it looks like he has finally figured it out. Easily the best D-Man in the AHL headed to this year’s Eddie Shore Award for top D-Man in AHL.

    People keep talking about Slava Voiynov of LA, who is a great young player, huge upside. Somebody asked if there was any other emerging d-men in that class. The answer is Marc-Andre Gragnani of Buffalo (who aren’t even sure they are going to re-sign him). This is odd because last year he won the Eddie Shore Award in the AHL and deserved it. Then he came up to Buffalo and played a regular shift in the Sabres/Philly series and was -2 with 7 points in 7 games and looked like an emerging star. This year he has been playing sheltered minutes (putting it mildly, and mainly seeing the ice as a power play specialist). It is like he instantly grew sideburns.

    So now your D is Gilbert, Smid, Petry, Whitney, O’Brien, Sutton, Gervais, Potter, Barberio (or Gragnani). Teubert is playing big AHL minutes. Peckham is traded probably for whichever D-Man you want and a pcik of some kind. Probably turn into Matt Greene but I think Lowetide is right ultimately the Oilers want to run and gun and I am not sure Peckham fits that game. You now have 7 guys with significant experience in the NHL and 2 guys with potential. That is better than where the Oilers are now. O’Brien, Gervais, and Barberio in total could possibly cost less than re-signing Barker.

    Still need to fix the goaltending and the size/depth problems at forward but oh well, tomorrow is another day.

  32. DSF says:

    Woodguy: He’s a terrible, young version of Gilbert.

    My mom has more goals than Hemsky this year.

    If you recall, the young version of Tom Gilbert was a terrible version too.

    I would think a big, fast PP ace (5G 9A) playing with a solid veteran would be a decent upgrade for the Oilers.

    If we can agree defensemen don’t come into their prime until 27-28 years of age, Johnson looks like a pretty good bet to me.

    He’s one month older than Jeff Petry.

  33. bookje says:

    “Steve Smith”:
    …and Ribs wins the thread.

    Do I get a first assist?

  34. Ducey says:

    My mom has more goals than Hemsky this year.

    Woodguy, when your mom says she scored last night, I don’t think she was talking about “goals”…

  35. Traktor says:

    Just so its not called hindsight later on I would trade Gagner for Johnson.

    *Bookmarked.

  36. "Steve Smith" says:

    bookje,

    Who the fuck cares about assists?

  37. Woodguy says:

    Ducey:
    My mom has more goals than Hemsky this year.

    Woodguy, when your mom says she scored last night, I don’t think she was talking about “goals”…

    Zing!

  38. stevezie says:

    Dalton,

    Sorry man, we’ve all been there.

    Of course Lombardi is shopping Johnson. He’s got the chance to move an overpriced player it seems he’s never liked personally or professionally, but who is still considered valuable by other GMs, and the return might be the scorer his team has always needed. I’ll bet he’s shaking with anticipation of completing a Bernier, Johnson, a 1st and Penner for Nash trade. I bet he’s willing to add another 1st. I still thing he’s out of luck if Boston decides they want Nash, but they might not. I bet he’d even settle for Carter.

  39. Hack says:

    I wouldn’t be surprised if Barker makes a public statement about liking the teams direction and wanting to be part of it. That’s gotta be worth a 2/3 yr extension….I mean, the guy was a 3rd overall pick.

  40. DSF says:

    “Steve Smith”:
    bookje,

    Who the fuck cares about assists?

    114 NHL players currently have more assists than Hemsky, including Kyle Wellwood and, of course, Woodguy’s Dad.

  41. Woodguy says:

    Traktor:
    Just so its not called hindsight later on I would trade Gagner for Johnson.

    *Bookmarked.

    *bookmarked*

    Is that a reflection of your feelings about Gagner or Johnson?

    I don’t mind trading Gagner for a very good young Dman, but imo Johnson is not a very good young DMan.

    He’s overrated and expensive.

    He’d be the most expensive Dman the Oilers have and he has a history a failing against 2nd level comp.

  42. TheOtherJohn says:

    Ducey

    OMG. With comment of the week!

  43. TheOtherJohn says:

    DSF

    You truly invite every response you get. .Seriously.

    Most here hold off responding because we take great solace in knowing that when the playoffs come around the Canucks will, yet again, choke and waste the best assmbled talent they ever had.You are just like Charlie Brown running to kick the football. Maybe Lucy won’t move it this time. And she does, over and over again. That truly must be an enormous cross for you to have to bear. Maybe you should switch your support to the SJ Sharks. God knows you are an expert on supporting underperforming playoff hockey teams

  44. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    DSF,

    Are you contractually obliged by some new marketing strategy to mention Wellwood everywhere, all the time. I have a feeling the % of Wellwood mentions out of your total utterances/posts is around 80-85%.

  45. Traktor says:

    Woodguy: *bookmarked*

    Is that a reflection of your feelings about Gagner or Johnson?

    I don’t mind trading Gagner for a very good young Dman, but imo Johnson is not a very good young DMan.

    He’s overrated and expensive.

    He’d be the most expensive Dman the Oilers have and he has a history a failing against 2nd level comp.

    Its a reflection of both players. Johnson is leaky but he just turned 25 last month – that’s like 21 or 22 in forward years. He’s never going to be a shutdown player (neither is Gagner) but he can produce 40+ points and bring a physical element to the team. His contract length is pretty scary though.

  46. "Steve Smith" says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    Which, through some mathematical oddity, is still less than half Traktor’s percentage of Horcoff utterances. Maybe they’re separate accounts of the same marketing firm?

  47. DSF says:

    TheOtherJohn:
    DSF

    God knows you are an expert on supporting underperforming playoff hockey teams

    I’ve been an Oiler fan since the beginning TOJ, so in the last 20 years I’ve certainly become accustomed to supporting an under performing team.

    As I’ve stated before, in the absence of first tier NHL hockey in Edmonton, I’ve become a fan of smart GM’s like Gillis, Burke, Tallon, , Chiarelli et al.

    Whether or not the Canucks win that 7th game matters little to me except as it relates to how Gillis’ plan succeeds or doesn’t.

    This season, I’ve been keeping a close eye on Tallon in Florida and Burke in Toronto since they’re both attempting to fast track their rebuilds while Tambellini is relying exclusively on the draft.

    My money is on Tallon. Man knows what he’s doing.

  48. Woodguy says:

    DSF: 114 NHL players currently have more assists than Hemsky, including Kyle Wellwood and, of course, Woodguy’s Dad.

    This year is very representative of his career averages.

    Just like Ryan Kessler.

  49. rickithebear says:

    Woodguy: Yes, Horcoff and MPS get those goals against OTT regardless because every Oiler makes those plays and those passes.

    1.Short memory? that was his one in six games were he does not turn over the puck.
    2.Failling to Credit Horcoff for reading hemsky and going to open slot. Yes all Hemsky.
    3. Interesting what happens when Hemsky shoots the puck at the net (gresay rebound) instead of cycling around. That MPS is a bust ! He never drives to the net and just cycles around the net. LOL
    4. Sorry the best pass by an oiler this year would : horcoff from the side board to a streaking Smyth or RNH Sideboard PP Pass to Hall for the beauty finish or ganger…… or Eberle…………. or Hall……….. Not quit every oiler but at least 5.
    5. Most important Omark makes those passes. Short Memeory?

  50. Traktor says:

    Wellwood has more goals, assists, points and a better +/- than Horcoff.

    All for 700k.

    I’m not sure if he works as hard as Horcoff in practice though.

  51. nathan says:

    DSF,

    But does he know what his office staff aren’t doing.

  52. rickithebear says:

    Woodguy: I don’t mind trading Gagner for a very good young Dman, but imo Johnson is not a very good young DMan.
    He’s overrated and expensive.

    You need to provide a better D option;

    I don’t mind trading Gagner for a very good young Dman, but imo Schenn is not a very good young DMan.

    He’s overrated and expensive.

    In fact peckham is his equal @ even and PP. Schenn is the third worst pk dman in the league and peckham is top 60 big minutes on the PK.

  53. DSF says:

    Romulus Apotheosis:
    DSF,

    Are you contractually obliged by some new marketing strategy to mention Wellwood everywhere, all the time. I have a feeling the % of Wellwood mentions out of your total utterances/posts is around 80-85%.

    Wellwood is my benchmark for creating perspective when outlandish claims are made about other players.

    While I’m certainly no big fan of Wellwood, when you see the Oilers running out and overpaying the Ryan Joneses of the world, never mind Potter and Sutton, it’s important to bear in mind that Kyle Wellwood, playing third line minutes on a shitty team, has managed to put up 33 points all while getting paid $700K per season.

    Smart GM’s find those guys.

  54. nathan says:

    DSF,

    Nice to root for both sides in the late rounds. A real connoisseur of fine hockey.

  55. VOR says:

    So DSF,

    You are saying Hemsky is the 25th best RW in hockey? There are only 24 RWs ahead of him. So he is the 25th best RW playing on the 29th place team, while playing 2RW minutes, not bad. Thanks for coming over to the pro-Hemsky camp.

  56. Captain Obvious says:

    I agree with everything Vors just said, including the specific names. I didn’t mention Enstrom because I thought Winnepeg might like him too much. But if he’s available he goes to the top of the list. I also love the Gragnani idea. This is exactly what we should be doing. The only way to build a winner is to trade for guys one year before they break through. I’d love to have Voynov but we left it one year too late and took Teubert instead. I think Lombardi would have done Voynov for Penner straight up. I’d certainly rather have Voynov than Teubert and Klefbom.

    It is pretty easy to identify those GMs who know what they are doing. Trading for Jack Johnson is a horrible idea. Trading for Gragnani is a brilliant idea. It’s really quite simple.

    If Lombardi turns Johnson, Bernier, and a first into Rick Nash that would be one great deal.

  57. Woodguy says:

    I’d just like to state that I didn’t start the Hemsky debate (I use that term loosely)in this thread.

    I just stated the Oilers are about to trade away offense, which is true.

  58. Captain Obvious says:

    Trading Gagner for Schenn or Johnson would be a catastrophe.

  59. Traktor says:

    Captain Obvious:
    Trading Gagner for Schenn or Johnson would be a catastrophe.

    This from the guy that wants to trade a pick in the 11-15 range for Andrej Sekera.

  60. stevezie says:

    Woodguy,

    You weren’t kidding about that blog. Winter writes small books for every entry and doesn’t mind naming people he hates. His Dubnyk prognosis was encouraging; I’m kind of shocked it hasn’t gotten more play around here.

  61. Woodguy says:

    rickithebear: 1.Short memory? that was his one in six games were he does not turn over the puck.
    2.Failling to Credit Horcoff for reading hemsky and going to open slot.Yes all Hemsky.
    3. Interesting what happens when Hemsky shoots the puck at the net (gresay rebound) instead of cycling around. That MPS is a bust ! He never drives to the net and just cycles around the net. LOL
    4. Sorry the best pass by an oiler this year would : horcoff from the side board to a streaking Smyth or RNH Sideboard PP Pass to Hall for the beauty finish or ganger…… or Eberle…………. or Hall………..Not quit every oiler butat least 5.
    5. Most important Omark makes those passes. Short Memeory?

    301 assists in 533 NHL games played.

    Most of them with Horcoff as his center.

    Short memory?

  62. stevezie says:

    rickithebear,

    I find it interesting that a lot of people are pining for Fowler while Schenn is getting torn down at every turn. Schenn has been bad for three years running, but he was great that rookie season. Fowler was also great his rookie year, but has been bad this year. I know that percentage wise Fowler still has more good then bad, but we’re still talking about two guys who had one good year and have been bad since.

    I’d take Schenn, and I’d take Schenn’s contract, but I think trading Gagner for him is robbing Peter to pay Paul, and getting screwed on the currency conversion.

  63. Captain Obvious says:

    Traktor,

    It is indicative of what you know about hockey players that you think my idea is a bad one and yours is a good one.

    Sekera is a very good hockey player. A pick in the 11-15 range has a small chance (certainly less than half) to ever be as good as Sekera. I’d do that trade a 100 times out of 100. In fact, when I first suggested the trade I was criticized for it being unrealistic, i.e. it was too good a trade for the Oilers to ever happen. That’s a fair thought. Your view, on the other hand, is on the other side of reason.

    As to Johnson and Schenn. In contrast to Sekera these are two below average hockey players who both get paid more than Sekera. They are exactly what every team should be trying to avoid. Worse, you want to trade Gagner for them who is worth much more than a first round pick.

    Basically your evaluation of every single element of these trades is so far off the mark that rational words cannot touch them. You are through the looking glass in world in which words have no meaning.

  64. DSF says:

    VOR:
    So DSF,

    You are saying Hemsky is the 25th best RW in hockey? There are only 24 RWs ahead of him. So he is the 25th best RW playing on the 29th place team, while playing 2RW minutes, not bad. Thanks for coming over to the pro-Hemsky camp.

    Didn’t say that at all.

    When healthy I would think he would be in or close to top 10 but the key phrase is WHEN HEALTHY.

    Then you need to factor in how much a second line winger with injury problems is worth under a cap.

    Perhaps a reasonable comparison might be David Booth in Vancouver.

    Hemsky’s high water marks are 23 goals and 77 points.

    Booth’s are 30 goals and 60 points.

    This season, both coming off injury, Hemsky has 4 goals and 20 assists in 43 games.

    Booth has 11 goals and 11 assists in 31 games.

    Booth is under contract for another 3 years at $4.25M.

    I would think, given his injury history, some observers would think Booth is overpaid and a risky bet.

    I’m finding it pretty tough to see why those same principles don’t apply to Hemsky.

  65. Woodguy says:

    rickithebear: You need to provide a better D option;

    I don’t mind trading Gagner for a very good young Dman, but imo Schenn is not a very good young DMan.

    He’s overrated and expensive.

    In fact peckham is his equal @ even and PP. Schenn is the third worst pk dman in the league and peckham is top 60 big minutes on the PK.

    I wouldn’t trade Gagner for Schenn or Johnson.

    I like Bogosian, wish he started later in the NHL so he wasn’t UFA so early, and he’s still a little young.

    Lemme think about others.

    Probably Gunnarsson.

    When I say “young D”, I’m looking for a guy who is 23+, not interested in developing a guy with potential unless they are playing top 4 and beating them now (i.e. Kulikov)

    I’d have to think for awhile to come up with more that are reasonable.

    DSF,,

    My money is on Tallon. Man knows what he’s doing.

    I don’t expect any GM to bat 1.000, but Jovocop at 4.125MM for 3 years after this one on a 35+ contract is awful.

    He’s getting beat -1.01/60 playing 3rd pairing minutes.

    Maybe some of that is holding Gubranson’s hand while he learns to play in the NHL, but it would stink if if wasn’t a 35+ contract. Since its 35+ it reeks.

  66. DSF says:

    nathan:
    DSF,

    Nice to root for both sides in the late rounds. A real connoisseur of fine hockey.

    Depends who they are.

    Just can’t find it in me to cheer for the Habs, Flames, Bruins or teams like Carolina or TB.

    The first three due to some childhood trauma the last two and teams like them because they just don’t register.

  67. Woodguy says:

    DSF: Didn’t say that at all.

    When healthy I would think he would be in or close to top 10 but the key phrase is WHEN HEALTHY.

    Then you need to factor in how much a second line winger with injury problems is worth under a cap.

    Perhaps a reasonable comparison might be David Booth in Vancouver.

    Hemsky’s high water marks are 23 goals and 77 points.

    Booth’s are 30 goals and 60 points.

    This season, both coming off injury, Hemsky has 4 goals and 20 assists in 43 games.

    Booth has 11 goals and 11 assists in 31 games.

    Booth is under contract for another 3 years at $4.25M.

    I would think, given his injury history, some observers would think Booth is overpaid and a risky bet.

    I’m finding it pretty tough to see why those same principles don’t apply to Hemsky.

    Even those of us who loathe the idea of Hemsky leaving know that signing him has injury risk.

    I was just hoping that the owner who spent $7.7MM in last two years for Souray and NIlsson to not play for the Oilers would be willing to make that bet, and if it didn’t pay off, bury him or trade him for pennies.

  68. DSF says:

    Woodguy: I wouldn’t trade Gagner for Schenn or Johnson.

    I like Bogosian, wish he started later in the NHL so he wasn’t UFA so early, and he’s still a little young.

    Lemme think about others.

    Probably Gunnarsson.

    When I say “young D”, I’m looking for a guy who is 23+, not interested in developing a guy with potential unless they are playing top 4 and beating them now (i.e. Kulikov)

    I’d have to think for awhile to come up with more that are reasonable.

    DSF,,

    My money is on Tallon. Man knows what he’s doing.

    I don’t expect any GM to bat 1.000, but Jovocop at 4.125MM for 3 years after this one on a 35+ contract is awful.

    He’s getting beat -1.01/60 playing 3rd pairing minutes.

    Maybe some of that is holding Gubranson’s hand while he learns to play in the NHL, but it would stink if if wasn’t a 35+ contract.Since its 35+ it reeks.

    Not one of his best moves to be sure but I think you’re right about Jovo’s role.

    One issue that is often overlooked though is that Tallon, while acquiring a boatload of veterans, needed to get to the cap floor. I agree though that doing that with +35 contract wasn’t real smart.

  69. Woodguy says:

    I was just hoping that the owner who spent $7.7MM in last two years for Souray and NIlsson to not play for the Oilers would be willing to make that bet, and if it didn’t pay off, bury him or trade him for pennies.

    Actually I bet Batman could be sold on that bet.

    I don’t think v3.2 is trying to sell him on it though.

  70. Jordan says:

    ‘Facts’ as I see them:

    1 – Horcoff was signed for too much for too long
    2 – Horcoff got that contract because of a carreer year shortened by injury thanks in large part to playing with Hemsky
    3 – Khabbibulin was signed for too much for too long
    4 – Signing Hemsky long term is risky due to his injury history
    5 – There are concerns about there being enough money to pay hemsky, the young pros, and address Defense

    Hemsky is likely to be traded as a result of the facts above. If there wasn’t the terrible Horcoff contract to deal with, or an overpaid russian seive in net, there wouldn’t be any questions about money for Hemsky.

    Also, they signed Horcoff that year he hurt himself with the first sholder injury no? And they are quibbling over the man that made Horcoff look like a #1 Centre?

    Seriously?

    Why the F*** are Stevo and Kev-Kev still running this show? Oh, right – the plan is to lose until the Katz Temple is ready to accept its new Stanley.

    Today I hate being an Oilers Fan.

  71. rickithebear says:

    Woodguy: you points ar quite resonable.

    often more realistic because you have done your homework. whish lends you providing rational lists and options. behind the net provides good numbers. We often generate the same lists.

    people throwing out the TSN favorite names drives me silly. Schen, jesus. 3.6M whenour #6,7 dman Peckham is his superior.

    Teams holes that need to be filled are specific and in most cases the options are limited.
    No better example than hemsky. Too expensive to maintain on a proper cap mgmt point of veiw. If we let him go the only UFA RW toughs option will be hemsky.

  72. D says:

    LT,

    Looking at that photo of Sakic and Forsberg, I am reminded that there is a third missing man who should have also been on the Avalanche – Mats Sundin. That would have been a powerhouse team. Any lessons for the current Oilers from the early 1990s Nordiques?

  73. pboy says:

    Woodguy: I was just hoping that the owner who spent $7.7MM in last two years for Souray and NIlsson to not play for the Oilers would be willing to make that bet, and if it didn’t pay off, bury him or trade him for pennies.Actually I bet Batman could be sold on that bet.I don’t think v3.2 is trying to sell him on it though.

    You make a pretty good point. I’ve been pretty wary about Hemmer signing anything more than a 3 year deal but you’re right, he could get dumped into the minors if he was constantly injured and his cap room could be better spent elsewhere. It’s not like there is a better 2nd RW out there on the horizon for this team to get. You might have changed my mind here.

  74. bookje says:

    Woodguy: Even those of us who loathe the idea of Hemsky leaving know that signing him has injury risk.

    I was just hoping that the owner who spent $7.7MM in last two years for Souray and NIlsson to not play for the Oilers would be willing to make that bet, and if it didn’t pay off, bury him or trade him for pennies.

    I like the idea of a heavily frontloaded contract. Katz absorbs all of the risk with his $$ then.

  75. Mr DeBakey says:

    they signed Horcoff that year he hurt himself with the first sholder injury no? And they are quibbling over the man that made Horcoff look like a #1 Centre?

    Look at Smyth’s GPG for the two seasons prior to the lock-out when he wasn’t playing with Horcov,
    and compare to the two season’s following the lock-out when he was.

  76. stevezie says:

    I think DSF and the rest of the don’t-sign-Hemsky crowd has some good arguments. Hemsky is a good player with an uncertain future, and a lengthy contract is risky, risky, risky, but let’s not pretend that we can look at the list of comparable UFAs this summer like a grocery list. Until this team starts winning it will be tough to attract even the PA Parenteau’s of the world. If Hemsky is willing to stay then give me the bird in the hand, even if we have to overpay. Remember, we can still trade him later, especially if we front-load the contract.

  77. nathan says:

    ‘he could get dumped into the minors if he was constantly injured ‘

    pboy,

    Wouldn’t he need medical clearance to play in the minors? Also can do a short conditioning stint in the minors without waiver before getting that medical clearance.

    Would also caution that burying another player in the minors for cap reasons is gonna move us below Buffalo as a destination.

  78. russ99 says:

    I’d go with both #2 and #3.

    First, the Gagner issue is mostly about him playing center. There’s no reason he can’t shift to wing when we end up turning into a contender. I see Gagner like a Patrick Sharp type player (following the Chicago rebuild), which the Oilers can’t afford to deal for a current need on a lottery team.

    Second, we need a top-4 defenseman for the NHL level next season (preferably top-2, but those aren’t being given away) so I’d acquire one and then also get another mid-first pick and draft another defenseman and add them to the mix of our defense prospects. If we get 1 solid NHL player out of them I’d be happy. If we get two or more, fantastic.

  79. nathan says:

    Hate to every say anything nice about Burke but it would make so much sense if teams had the option to keep a percentage across the board on remaining salary and cap numbers when they trade a player. Better for teams if they can eat a portion rather than burying a player until someone will take exactly half. PA should hold out for that one. Makes more sense than what players are put through now. Would also make the trade market less thin.

  80. Ducey says:

    people throwing out the TSN favorite names drives me silly. Schen, jesus. 3.6M whenour #6,7 dman Peckham is his superior.

    What irks me is guys who run down players for what they are, rather than what they will become.

    This is particularly problematic with defencemen. Writing off a 22 year old defenceman can be a big mistake when Dmen don’t hit their prime until their mid twenties. So much of their game comes from making the right reads that only come with experience.

    Schenn is exactly 2 years younger than Theo (who I love BTW). Isn’t there some chance in two years that Schenn might be better than Theo is now?

    If you say Schenn is a poor bet due to poor skating or he is a wimp or is retarded and that he won’t develop, fine, I can accept that. But running down a 22 year old defenceman based on his current play is very questionable.

    I don’t think there are problems with Schenn’s abilities, are there? He has just not performed consistently well in the fishbowl that is TOR. Big surprise. Jason Smith says “Hi”.

  81. spoiler says:

    mattwatt: spoiler, You are correct. We technically do not know what Sutton would get, since he never went to free market. However, Tyler and others have shown that Sutton was paid above average when compared to other players of similar ilk. Why is it wrong for shaking your head at Tambo when he signed a player for 1.5+.3 in bonuses that is likely above his fair value. Or are you saying that Sutton would receive that same salary if he was to enter free agency? What information do you have that Sutton would receive that money? I don’t know if Sutton would receive those funds, nor would you. In all likelihood though, he would likely not receive that pay day on the free market than receiving it. I like Sutton as a player, and had no issue with signing him. What I have issue with is the price tag. Oiler’s brass has a strange way of allocating funds, Sutton’s signing is another example of this. Truth, Yeah, I don’t know what the market for Fowler is either, and I am far from certain that the likely top-10 pick next year will be a surefire hockey player. Just seemed like the price you stated was a bit high, but one has to start from somewhere in proposals like this. I know if I was Duck’s brass, I would be asking for what you are offering.

    I guess you believe Tyler provided a comprehensive list or relevant comps. I don’t.

    If we look at the contracts of Gill and MItchell, two defenders similar to Sutton (older and bigger), we see that the tendency is for NHL teams to pay more for the Jumbo Jet defensemen over the Airbus defensemen. Sutton’s contract reflects that tendency. I believe Sutton would have earned something similar to what the Oilers have paid if he had gone to free agency, especially as he has had better year this year than his last. Even if the contract is off by $250K, in light of the future cap ceiling, that’s largely irrelevant, and quibbling over it would do your team far more harm than good.

  82. Woodguy says:

    DSF: If you recall, the young version of Tom Gilbert was a terrible version too.

    I would think a big, fast PP ace (5G 9A) playing with a solid veteran would be a decent upgrade for the Oilers.

    If we can agree defensemen don’t come into their prime until 27-28 years of age, Johnson looks like a pretty good bet to me.

    He’s one month older than Jeff Petry.

    In Gilbert’s 25 year old year he was playing toughs with Souray, for 26 games, then Staios for the rest getting 48.1% Ozone starts on a shitty Oilers team and was -0.09/60

    In Johnson’s 25 year old year he’s playing 2nd toughs with Willie Mitchell, getting 49% Ozone starts on a reasonable LAK team and is -0.47/60

    Some Gilbert 25th year numbers: (min games played 40)

    QC 1/6 toughest
    QT 2/6 2nd best
    +/-/60 3/6
    Ozone start 3/6

    Some Johnson 25th year number (min games played 20)

    QC 4/7
    QT 3/7
    +/- /60 6/7
    Ozone start 6/7

    I’d say that at a glance and remembering his 25th season a bit, Gilbert wasn’t bad. Much better results than JJ is showing.

    For fun, Petry, same parameters as JJ (on a terrible Oilers team)

    QC 2/8
    QT 4/8
    +/-/60 5/8
    Ozone Start 4/8

    Since Gilbert got hurt Petry’s been on the 1st pair with Smid.

    I have seen a lot more games from Petry than Johnson, but I like Petry a lot, and he seems to have the edge on JJ via BTN stats.

    The Oilers don’t need another project though, they need a LH Dman who plays toughs now, and ends up ahead.

  83. Captain Obvious says:

    Ducey,

    I can’t think of a bigger mistake a general manager could make than trading for potential. You can’t trade for Schenn on the basis of what he might be, you can only trade for what he is. Otherwise you are just engaging in magical thinking.

    This means you have to separate the reasonable claim–defensemen improve with time and peak later than forwards–from the hopeful claim–if I trade for Schenn he’ll be a good player in two years.

    The first claim should absolutely be part of any evaluation of a player. However, the second is a sure road to defeat.

    Considering this it seems to me that the path forward is to trade for a young defensemen who is already good and could become better. These players exist. They are also available because the market is saturated by people making evaluations on potential and pedigree. A general manage who invested in data collection and mining at the AHL level would be able to find many players this way, I would think.

    If I don’t have that information (and I don’t) and I’m trading with Toronto I’d trade for Aulie instead of Schenn. In both cases I’m banking on their improvement due to age but at least for Aulie I’m not paying for it in salary or in the cost of the trade. Though on Toronto if you are going to trade for future promise the young player I really want is Gardiner but 1) he’s probably not available and 2) I wouldn’t trade Gagner for him.

  84. spoiler says:

    Woodguy

    That Ritch Winter blog is fabulous. Thank you kindly. Very interesting comments about Dubnyk in there.

  85. stevezie says:

    Captain Obvious,

    I think it can be a great idea to trade for potential, as long as you’re comfortable losing what you give for nothing. The Oil traded Salo for GIlbert, and it worked out well. They also traded Torres for Brule, with mixed results. I think these were both fine trades because we were moving pieces that no longer had a role on the team, so we could afford to use them to buy lottery tickets. Gagner does not fit this profile.

    I think the mistakes are paying for potential (The Nilsson contract still counfounds me), and counting on potential- putting yourself in a position where you’re screwed if the player doesn’t change the way you hope they will. When you can afford to take the chance though, well the Sens once traded Yashin for a pile of potential in what became one of the most lop-sided trades in history.

  86. Captain Obvious says:

    stevezie,

    I agree. Trading (or paying) for potential is fine so long as you are paying for potential only and not for the fulfillment of that potential. The problem with Schenn is that he is being paid for performance that is not there. That is putting the cart before the horse.

  87. Mr DeBakey says:

    You all may not be aware, but Captain Obvious is running in the San Vicente Stakes tomorrow at Santa Anita.

    Best of luck Captain

  88. CrazyCoach says:

    VOR: Back to being serious for a moment.

    You mean long-winded and boring?

  89. Woodguy says:

    spoiler:
    Woodguy

    That Ritch Winter blog is fabulous. Thank you kindly. Very interesting comments about Dubnyk in there.

    He’s pretty good on twitter too.

    He thinks a lot of himself (standard), and says some crazy things (like if he were in charge of a NHL team his drafting record would be 80% top 6 Forwards and top 4 Dmen)

    You never know what he’s going to write. It varies from the profound to the ridiculous.

  90. OilClog says:

    If we want to get serious about winning.. why is signing Hemsky and demoting or shipping out Horcoff now, not the option we’re looking at? What would be harder to replace for this team? One of the best pure set up men in the league in the last 10yrs? or a Low-Rent Draper like player.. yeah he plays against the toughs, getting beat every time too. Does this team have a more realistic chance of winning when it matters with Hemsky on the 2nd line at 5mil? or Horc on the 3rd at 5mil?

    Does Horcoff really have what it takes to lead this team down the line regardless of the Hemsky situation? I’d trade Horc for anything personally, heck if it’s gomez in return, it wouldn’t be such a slap in the face to him if we bury him in the minors.. The captain is killing this team by about 5mil too much, that salary can be much better used.

    ST remarks about Khabby leave me banging my head against my dog’s head. I don’t understand why this is happening.. I didn’t understand when we let Roli walk because he was too old, yet sign a crippled old goalie for 4 years.. WTF?!? What part of a rebuild includes a used cracked engine?

    Depending on what happens with the Nash situation.. if Bernier lands there, I’d go after Mason. Pair him up with Dubnyk, see what that competition does for eachother. Mason may never pan out, turn into a Jim Carey.. I’d rather go thru that then another month of seeing a happy to be here Khabby. Just can’t stand the guy, “I hope to win a stanley cup here” BULLSHIT! you hope we give you another 4 years paying you into your 50′s! which we might.. BLARG!

  91. Ducey says:

    I can’t think of a bigger mistake a general manager could make than trading for potential.

    You should think harder.

  92. Ribs says:

    stevezie: (The Nilsson contract still counfounds me)

    Whadaya mean? He totally killed Kyle Wellwood’s KHL stats last season!

  93. Ducey says:

    He’s pretty good on twitter too.

    He thinks a lot of himself (standard), and says some crazy things (like if he were in charge of a NHL team his drafting record would be 80% top 6 Forwards and top 4 Dmen)

    You never know what he’s going to write. It varies from the profound to the ridiculous.

    Having met the guy, I am surprised he is not writing about being punched more often.

  94. Ribs says:

    Speaking of agents… Does anyone know who represents Hemsky?

  95. knighttown says:

    Sincere question about Qualcomp and what exactly it measures. Since we know the Oiler personnel very well, let’s take that Leafs/Oilers game from the other night. I’m ignoring the 4th line cause it was dregs vs. dregs.

    The Oilers were working like dogs to get 20/94/28/5/58 out against the Kessel line. Grobovski’s line then was pretty hard matched against 83/10/91 with 77 and 6 as I recall. And finally, the matchup the Leafs didn’t want but didn’t have control over was the Lombardi line out against 89/4/14 but in that case Renney seemed to put 25/13 behind them, assumedly to protect them and avoid Kessel/Grabo at all costs. That’s what my eyes saw…is that correct? If Coach Renney wanted the Belanger line (and Smid/Petry) out against Kessel then it also follows that Kessel faced the “toughs”.

    So my question…in a one game snapshot does Qualcomp agree that Kessel faced the “toughs”?

    I believe we would say that Kessel was facing the toughs, right? Does qualcomp agree? Those guys never score so

  96. Jordan says:

    knighttown,

    I could be wrong on this, but by my understanding, the “toughs” is based on who scores for each team.

    So, for the Oilers, the 20 line would have been against the toughs, while for the leafs, the Lombardi line would have been against the toughs.

    That’s what I understood anyways…

  97. Ducey says:

    Ribs: Speaking of agents… Does anyone know who represents Hemsky?

    Jiri Crha.

  98. Ribs says:

    Thanks, Ducey.

  99. CrazyCoach says:

    Anyone remember when Jiri Crha broke in with the Leafs in the early 80′s and proceeded to win 3 games (a dynasty in TO in those days)? You thought Johnny Bower and Terry Sawchuk had melded together and came back to the Leafs.

  100. jfry says:

    with the heat down 3 in a lopsided game, their coach called a timeout and then proceeded to put on two goons. they wanted to fight and plante was the only one to answer the bell. he took a sucker punch as he was falling down and was a wet noodle trying to skate to the bench. it looked like one of those punches that breaks your face and leaves you a concussed ball. my two friends and i figured that might have been plante’s last game of the year/career based on history.

    isn’t this just a trade to upgrade on D as a result?

  101. Woodguy says:

    rickithebear:
    Woodguy: you points ar quite resonable.

    often more realistic because you have done your homework. whish lends you providing rational lists and options. behind the net provides good numbers. We often generate the same lists.

    people throwing out the TSN favorite names drives mesilly.Schen, jesus. 3.6M whenour #6,7 dman Peckham is his superior.

    Teams holes that need to be filled are specific and in most cases the options are limited.
    No better example than hemsky. Too expensive to maintain on a proper cap mgmt point of veiw. If we let him go the only UFA RW toughs option will be hemsky.

    The % of times you get mentioned as a good player on TSN goes up proportionally to the proximity to Toronto of your home town or professional club team.

  102. Marc says:

    A propos of nothing, according to Friedman the last time the Penguins played in Toronto the Pittsburgh plane got the full-body cavity search.

    http://www.cbc.ca/sports/hockey/opinion/2012/02/jets-under-winnipegs-microscope-30-thoughts.html

    If only it had been the Canucks…

  103. Jimmy says:

    Marc,

    “I don’t understand Mr. Gillis. What do you mean Henrik and Daniel have an extra cavity” *airport security*

  104. Woodguy says:

    knighttown:
    Sincere question about Qualcomp and what exactly it measures.Since we know the Oiler personnel very well, let’s take that Leafs/Oilers game from the other night.I’m ignoring the 4th line cause it was dregs vs. dregs.

    The Oilers were working like dogs to get 20/94/28/5/58 out against the Kessel line.Grobovski’s line then was pretty hard matched against 83/10/91 with 77 and 6 as I recall.And finally, the matchup the Leafs didn’t want but didn’t have control over was the Lombardi line out against 89/4/14 but in that case Renney seemed to put 25/13 behind them, assumedly to protect them and avoid Kessel/Grabo at all costs.That’s what my eyes saw…is that correct?If Coach Renney wanted the Belanger line (and Smid/Petry) out against Kessel then it also follows that Kessel faced the “toughs”.

    So my question…in a one game snapshot does Qualcomp agree that Kessel faced the “toughs”?

    I believe we would say that Kessel was facing the toughs, right?Does qualcomp agree?Those guys never score so

    Gabe’s FAQ

    Basically its based on relative +/-

    Not perfect, but a reasonable proxy.

  105. knighttown says:

    Woodguy,

    Ok, thanks for the link to Gabe’s site and I’ve read it but I can’t say its helping me endorse it. As you say, it’s not perfect but man, all I hear people talk about is “this guy has taken on the toughs” or “that guy is getting killed by the soft parade”. Are we sure this really works?

    Which is tough…playing Jordan Eberle who is likely to score against you but is also likely to get scored on or Sammy Pahlsson in his prime who is a wet blanket but is not threat to score at all. I think that depends on who you ask doesn’t it?

    If you are Brent Seabrook you’d much prefer playing against Sammy Pahlsson so for that night you’re taking on the “soft parade”. However, if you’re Sidney Crosby get that greasy Pahlssen away from me adn let me roast this kid Eberle alive.

    So Pahlsson is an easy matchup for Seabrook and a tough matchup for Crosby? Forget “not perfect”…how can this number have any value across positions at all?

  106. Mr DeBakey says:

    Remember you only play Pahlsson at most 6 times in a season.

    QC as defined isn’t perfect, but for the most part it works.

    I think other measures could be used just as effectively
    Just the names of the Outliers would change

  107. Woodguy says:

    Which is tough…playing Jordan Eberle who is likely to score against you but is also likely to get scored on or Sammy Pahlsson in his prime who is a wet blanket but is not threat to score at all. I think that depends on who you ask doesn’t it?

    If you are Brent Seabrook you’d much prefer playing against Sammy Pahlsson so for that night you’re taking on the “soft parade”. However, if you’re Sidney Crosby get that greasy Pahlssen away from me adn let me roast this kid Eberle alive.

    If Pahsson’s realtive +/- is much better than Ebele, then yes he’s a tougher match up.

    So Pahlsson is an easy matchup for Seabrook and a tough matchup for Crosby? Forget “not perfect”…how can this number have any value across positions at all?

    Not sure how he’s easy for one and tough for the other.

    I think you are missing a part of it somewhere.

    Maybe email Gabe. He’s very responsive and can explain it better than I.

    I think you are missing this point:

    Basically, Quality of Competition tells us if players were used overwhelmingly against top competition, and it gives us another data point we can use to adjust a player’s very high (or very low) +/-.

  108. knighttown says:

    So Pahlsson is an easy matchup for Seabrook and a tough matchup for Crosby? Forget “not perfect”…how can this number have any value across positions at all?

    Not sure how he’s easy for one and tough for the other.

    Really? it think it’s pretty clear. Seabrook’s job is to stop the other team from scoring so playing against Pahlssen (or Pahlssen, Niedermeyer and Moen) is going to be pretty easy. A lot of safe lin changes and dump ins while keeping a 3rd man high. That’s an easy night for Seabrook.

    For Crosby his job is to score. Those same “safe” tendencies combined with a ferocious back check, strength and conditioning makes this about as tough a matchup as Crosby could have?

    My issue may not be with the number as much as the general use of “playing the softs” or “facing the vaunt”.

  109. knighttown says:

    To expand on that last point, have a peek at the NHL-wide Qualcomp numbers. In an attempt to remove the 4th liners who almost always play against each other because of some gentlemen’s agreement here is a list of lowest Qualcomp FORWARDS in the NHL (min 20GP, 15 mins)

    -E. Kane
    -B. Wheeler
    -M. Pacioretty
    -A. Semin
    -V. Leino
    -N. Backstrom
    -E. Cole
    -A. Ovechkin
    -A. Ladd
    Top 15 also includes Sharp, Havlat, Spezza and Gaborik.

    So Ladislav Smid matches up against Ovechkin/Backstrom and Semin and he’s facing the softs? C’mon guys…I understand the terrifying Gabe Desjardins is producing some outrageously amazing stuff but really, does that pass the sniff test to anyone?

    Quoting Steve Smith, I’m not sure QualComp means what we think it means. it means something perhaps but if you’re looking at a Top 9 forward’s QualComp and judging them based on this number I think you might be being led astray.

  110. knighttown says:

    As you see, I’m focussing on the forward flaw here. Looking at the d-man list and QualComp seems to be an excellent measuring tool. The bottom of the list contains exclusively guys I’d consider to be bottom pairing guys facing the soft parade:

    -Brodie
    -S. Elliot
    -J. Blum
    -R. Whitney
    -D. Smith
    -M.A. Bergeron
    -Demers
    -Sutton
    -Orlov
    -Ference

  111. Woodguy says:

    knighttown:
    To expand on that last point, have a peek at the NHL-wide Qualcomp numbers.In an attempt to remove the 4th liners who almost always play against each other because of some gentlemen’s agreement here is a list of lowest Qualcomp FORWARDS in the NHL (min 20GP, 15 mins)

    -E. Kane
    -B. Wheeler
    -M. Pacioretty
    -A. Semin
    -V. Leino
    -N. Backstrom
    -E. Cole
    -A. Ovechkin
    -A. Ladd
    Top 15 also includes Sharp, Havlat, Spezza and Gaborik.

    So Ladislav Smid matches up against Ovechkin/Backstrom and Semin and he’s facing the softs?C’mon guys…I understand the terrifying Gabe Desjardins is producing some outrageously amazing stuff but really, does that pass the sniff test to anyone?

    Quoting Steve Smith, I’m not sure QualComp means what we think it means.it means something perhaps but if you’re looking at a Top 9 forward’s QualComp and judging them based on this number I think you might be being led astray.

    I understand what you are saying, but all those players are giving up more than they are creating this year.

    That, by definition, is easier to play against than those who give up little, but create little, or the worst, give up little and create lots.

    I think QC should include a healthy dose of corsi0 +/- as hot and cold goalies can skew things, but Gabe tries to account for that by giving relative +/-, not absolute.

    Its like saying playing against Eberle is tough. The guy scores a ton and is dangerous, but he gets outshot almost every game against middling comp and he’s top 15 in NHL scoring.

    He scores a lot, doesn’t mean he’s tough to play against.

  112. DSF says:

    Woodguy,

    Fishing the puck out of your own net 30 or more times a year is the definition of being tough to play against.

    Who was tougher to pay against?

    Wayne Gretzky or Dave Hunter?

  113. Woodguy says:

    DSF:
    Woodguy,

    Fishing the puck out of your own net 30 or more times a year is the definition of being tough to play against.

    Who was tougher to pay against?

    Wayne Gretzky or Dave Hunter?

    Well that’s easy. Gretzky.

    Because you lost.

    They don’t give points for giving bruises, or cheap shotting a guy in a goal celebration, they give points for winning.

  114. Woodguy says:

    Perhaps we should change the terminology from “tough to play against’ to “tough to win against”

    Big difference, and they don’t give points for gritty, jammy, crusty play.

    They give them for out scoring the competition.

  115. pboy says:

    If anyone has earned PP time, it’s definitely Cam Barker. Great coaching job!

  116. Woodguy says:

    Whenever Barker screws up, in my mind I see an angry J. Jonah Jaimson chewing a cigar and banging on a desk screaming:

    “BARKER!!”

    The JJJ from the 70′s cartoon with the awesome 2-tone hair, btw.

  117. Rebilled says:

    Great ‘Q’ quiz by Gene Skelton there. Riveting stuff. Craig Riveting stuff.

  118. Wolfie says:

    How many times have we seen Dubnyk play the puck like that and turn it in to a goal against. Stop fucking wandering!

  119. cabbiesmacker says:

    It’s the little things that win/lose games. Like the horrible giveaways that period by Smyth (results in a penalty), Gagner, and Dubnyk, (results in goal). Qualcomp and Corsi don’t mean much if you’re going to make the braindead turnover.

    And…could MPS get any fn softer. You can actually hit a guy with your shoulders rather than your ass and back your Swedeness. Hell it’s even ok to hit a guy “after” he gets rid of the puck to give him something to think about the next time he’s watching his passes.

  120. Lucinius says:

    I could swear I could hear my father shouting on that goal, despite him living on the other side of the city.

    Any time he sees a goalie wander out of his net he screams bloody murder about the goaltender’s stupidity.

  121. cabbiesmacker says:

    Wolfie:
    How many times have we seen Dubnyk play the puck like that and turn it in to a goal against.Stop fucking wandering!

    He’s been horrible handling the puck all year.

  122. DSF says:

    cabbiesmacker:
    It’s the little things that win/lose games. Like the horrible giveaways that period by Smyth (results in a penalty), Gagner, and Dubnyk, (results in goal). Qualcomp and Corsi don’t mean much if you’re going to make the braindeadturnover.

    And…could MPS get any fn softer. You can actually hit a guy with your shoulders rather than your ass and back your Swedeness. Hell it’s even ok to hit a guy “after” he gets rid of the puck to give him something to think about the next time he’s watching his passes.

    I like it!

    Swedie Pie!

  123. harrigan says:

    Wolfie,

    If Dubnyk doesn’t improve soon, perhaps his new nickname should be, “The Happy Wanderer.”

  124. Lucinius says:

    Was that 4 or 14 with the lazy-ish/wrong decision on the back check that led to the second goal? Didn’t go towards the open man at all, and instead went straight down the middle to a covered man.

  125. SK Oiler Fan says:

    knighttown,

    Good discussion pints KT. Quality of Competition seems to be a misleading title to this advanced stat.
    My view on it is QC is most relevant to D men and Centers and least relevent to wingers due to a descrepency in defensive responsibilities. I don’t put alot of weight into when a winger is said to be good in their own end. Unless a coach is running a crazy defensive system the wingers have the least defensive responsibility of anybody on the ice.

  126. Alice says:

    pboy:
    If anyone has earned PP time, it’s definitely Cam Barker. Great coaching job!

    Barker is poor at D, but if you’re paying any attention at all you can see that he’s one of the best passers on the team, so it makes every bit of sense to put him on the powerplay. (Which thankfully is often played in the offensive zone). So yes, great coaching job: that’s exactly where you Do play him.

  127. bill needle says:

    I fear Lander is the second coming of Steven Rice.

  128. Kris11 says:

    Barker sucks butt.

  129. Kris11 says:

    I like the new site but white letters on a black background is the Cam Barker of fonts.

    :)

  130. SK Oiler Fan says:

    harrigan,

    He’ s 25 – 81GP – last year .916 – this year .908

    I like Dubnyk and what he was supposed to be, but there is nothing so far indicating he will be the G needed once this team is a contender.

    I know the hard core stats guys will scoff at this, but the regularity of bad to brutal goalsallowed is of major concern.

  131. Rebilled says:

    That drunk fan yelling has been the highlight thus far.

  132. SK Oiler Fan says:

    Fk sakes this game is terrible. Oilers are so easy to play against. It’s a rec game out there.

  133. Gerta Rauss says:

    You have to squint really hard to see the entertainment value in this game.

    Awful.

  134. art vandelay says:

    What a bunch of Billy Beanebags.
    Here’s the only relevant stat: Does your team outscore the opposition enough games out of 82 to make the playoffs. The end.
    Jeebus, it must suck to be a fan of the worst franchise in the NHL.

    Also, Karl Rove hails from somewhere a lot further south than Denver.

  135. SK Oiler Fan says:

    DD played well in the 3rd – stopped at least 4 grade A chances.

  136. Lucinius says:

    I missed all but the dying seconds of the first, but I’ve been disappointed in Hall tonight.

    Smid and Sutton have played better offensively than pretty much every other defenseman tonight, as well.

  137. bill needle says:

    When did Ales Hemsky become Radek Dvorak?

  138. DSF says:

    The Edmonton Oilers are a very shitty hockey team.

  139. Gerta Rauss says:

    The good news is that we only have to watch this franchise 25 more times this year.

    I think shitty is being generous.

    Billy Beanbags is more accurate.

  140. SK Oiler Fan says:

    Lucinius,

    Agreed. On a night when offense was hard to come by this team needed more from Gilbert, Petry, and Barker. I saw Pery jump into the rush once in the 3rd and that was it for O from the D.

    Regardless, when you only have one line capable of scoring on a regular basis you’re not going to score alot of goals. I saw 2 SC all game from 10,83,91.

    Somebody promise me that 2 top 4 D-men and better goaltending is going to result in more GF.

  141. GordM says:

    So if we get the third overall pick can we draft a Dman as good as Cameron Barker?

  142. Ducey says:

    I didn’t see the first two periods. Was the boy named Ales full value for his 16 minutes, -1 and no shots?

    I see he is now tied with Ryan Jones in points, although to be fair to Ryan, he is out scoring Ales 13 goals to 4.

  143. Ducey says:

    GordM:
    So if we get the third overall pick can we draft a Dman as good as Cameron Barker?

    Maybe even better!

  144. DSF says:

    Ducey:
    I didn’t see the first two periods.Was the boy named Ales full value for his 16 minutes, -1 and no shots?

    I see he is now tied with Ryan Jones in points, although to be fair to Ryan, he is out scoring Ales 13 goals to 4.

    He was full value for his stats.:)

  145. Ducey says:

    OKC lost 5-3 tonight. Pitlick, Harsky and Linus scored. Linus had an assist as well but was -2.

  146. cabbiesmacker says:

    pboy:
    If anyone has earned PP time, it’s definitely Cam Barker. Great coaching job!

    Somebody has to ride shotgun for Shawn “Hamhands” Horcoff.

    Honestly, people that truly believe we need to draft defence before offence ought to wander on down to the nearest Home Depot, strap their heads into paint shakers, and flip the switch on high.

    Having 3 kids that can score = one line that can score…after that it’s a hockey black hole.

  147. Schitzo says:

    I’m late to the conversation, but quality of competition is derived directly from on-ice/off-ice plus-minus (+-Rel).

    Basically, +-Rel normalizes for team performance – if Smyth ends up -2 on a team that’s -40, it’s pretty obvious that he’s not the problem. So you take the team’s goals allowed while he’s on the ice and subtract the goals allowed when he’s on the bench (normalized over 60 minutes, to account for the fact that a player is on the bench at least twice as much as on the ice).

    So every player gets a number for +-Rel. If you want to determine quality of competition (QoC), just take that number for the five players on the other team and average them together. Likewise, if you want to determine quality of teammates (QoT) just average the +-Rel for the other four guys on your team on the ice.

    The result is that if you play against the Sedin line, your QoC will be ridiculous. And if you’re lucky enough to be Alex Burrows, your QoT should be through the roof.

    Where QoC breaks down is the traditional checking line – I looked at this in 2007 when the Ducks were running Moen-Pahlsson-R. Nied together as their shutdown line. These guys had a disgustingly poor QoT because even though they prevented a lot of goals and let the other lines run wild, they could not score to save their lives. The result was that they were getting beat up in +-Rel, despite the fact that the result likely would have been worse with any other line on the ice. Add up those numbers and we’re talking all three being in the bottom ten for QoT league-wide.
    From the other team’s perspective, QoC would tell you that playing Pahlsson’s line must be butter-soft minutes, because the +-Rel was negative for each player. I doubt there’s a forward in the league who would agree with that statement in reality.

    My conclusion at the time was that QoC works in the context of power versus power, but breaks down when you look at teams who run dedicated checking lines. I haven’t seen much to change my mind since then.

    So to summarize, QoC assumes that players who outscore their opponents are the most skilled, and those who get outscored are less talented. It doesn’t take context into account, and as we’ve seen from anyone from Comrie to Nilsson to Lupul, scoring goals is only part of the story. Context matters.

  148. bookje says:

    art vandelay:
    What a bunch of Billy Beanebags.
    Here’s the only relevant stat: Does your team outscore the opposition enough games out of 82 to make the playoffs. The end.
    Jeebus, it must suck to be a fan of the worst franchise in the NHL.

    Also, Karl Rove hails from somewhere a lot further south than Denver.

    Don’t be silly. The only stat that matters is if your team wins the Stanley Cup. The end. I don’t understand why you would want to add complexity like scoring and game wins.

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