G59 Oilers at Flames

This week, we’ll be devoting a tremendous amount of time to Ales Hemsky. I remember well the moment he became an Oiler: Kevin Lowe exercised the option to “swap picks” with Boston at the 2001 entry draft–an option that was paid for as part of the Billy Guerin for Anson Carter trade months before the draft.

Ales Hemsky is an outstanding talent, and the truth is that he has miles and miles to go. This week, we can begin to put Hemsky’s feats as an Oiler into perspective.

OILER CAREER ASSISTS (FORWARDS)

  1. Gretzky 1086 in 696 games (1.56)
  2. Messier 642 in 851 games (.754)
  3. Kurri 569 in 754 games (.755)
  4. Anderson 489 in 845 games (.579)
  5. Weight 420 in 588 games (.714)
  6. Smyth 305 in 828 games (.368)
  7. Hemsky 302 in 535 games (.564)

Hemsky’s assists came during what might be described as a borderline deadball era, making the totals even more impressive. Also impressive: his consistency.

5X5/60

  • 2011-12: 1.58
  • 2010-11: 2.88
  • 2009-10: 2.85
  • 2008-09: 2.08
  • 2007-08: 2.36
  • 2006-07: 2.09
  • 2005-06: 2.17

All but 05-06 is courtesy Gabe at behind the net and the 05-06 comes from nhl.com and my Casio (so it is EV/60 for that season). The guy has been very consistent and odds are he’ll hit 2.00 or close by season’s end.

It is absolutely stunning that the issue has been framed in a way that Hemsky is derided for being inconsistent or unreliable. Ales Hemsky has had injury issues as he approached the peak of his career, but there is no evidence that he’s eroding as a skill player.

Last night, there was some buzz about Hemsky possibly “softening” his stance on a long term contract and a 2-3 year deal might be in the cards. I don’t think we can believe much the week of the trade deadline, but it would be music if true.

Pat over at BDHS has the third in a trio of brilliant 83 posts up today, I suggest reading all three in order.

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260 Responses to "G59 Oilers at Flames"

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  1. Alice says:

    Is Eager ~ Glencross?

    Speed.
    Good production/TOI.

    I hope he doesn’t wind up a Flame.

  2. Ribs says:

    Man, does Calgary ever look bad. Their defence looks terrible and the forwards forgot how to backcheck entirely. I guess Glencross isn’t there to shiow them how it’s done?

    Iginla is playing in this game? Really?

  3. spoiler says:

    Sutter is gonna be talking about getting back to playing a tighter game come scrum time. The Flames played this open style against Toronto and Kipper/lack of Leaf finish brought them the win. Not so tonight.

  4. spoiler says:

    7 shots already for Hall? He’s done that a few times this year. He’s a Corsi machine.

  5. hockeyguy10 says:

    Petry has been very good tonite

  6. Lucinius says:

    Nice play there by Paajarvi to out muscled Iginla.

  7. LMHF#1 says:

    Crazy to want to throw Rob Kerr on the team flight back home to replace either of our announcers?

  8. Lowetide says:

    Best game in Petry’s NHL career imo. Man.

  9. cadooo says:

    I just want to say the Flames are being dirt mean. What team starts their best goalie against the bottom feeders? Jerks.

    https://twitter.com/#!/Lowetide_/status/171445085853069312

  10. SK Oiler Fan says:

    Holy confidence Petry! Lidstrom like shift.

  11. spoiler says:

    Smid on Kolanos… About as pretty a defensive play as one can ever see.

  12. Henry says:

    Petry might get a contract like Gilbert’s…if we are lucky.

  13. pboy says:

    You don’t even attempt that unless you are feeling confident. Good for MPS.

  14. hockeyguy10 says:

    Lowetide,

    Can’t argue that he and Smid have been great

  15. Lucinius says:

    Okay, wow. Fantastic move there by Paajarvi to split teh D and the puck just a bit too much on it to get the shot.

    His confidence is showing now. He looks like a completely different player than earlier in the year.

  16. SK Oiler Fan says:

    What a couple shifts in a row! Man I needed this as an Oilers fan – couldn’t happen against a better team to.

    Keep throwing Petry and MP out there!

  17. Rebilled says:

    91 with a moment of clarity.

  18. Lowetide says:

    Taylor Hall is ridiculous.

  19. Lucinius says:

    Oilers seem to be tired now. Starting to lose battles and go half-heartedly for pucks in their own end which led to the constant pressure.

  20. Henry says:

    Krys Kolanos, career tweeter, looks like the only Flame appreciating playing in the NHL tonight.

  21. spoiler says:

    Laddy has owned that Kolanos line tonight. Petry has pulled a couple of Staios bailouts this game and Smid has just taken it with aplomb.

  22. spoiler says:

    Taylor Hall is Baldwin from Glengarry.. “Always be shooting.”

  23. fuzzy muppet says:

    What a difference having 13 and 28 in the press box makes

  24. McSorely Head says:

    MPS looking good, but how did he think he was contributing on that PP by standing off to the side?

  25. McSorely Head says:

    Calgary play by play man alright, but Charlie Simmer is Debrusk-lite.

  26. Gret99zky says:

    funny how winning erases the short term memory.

  27. Lucinius says:

    Good win. Much appreciated as a fan to see something like this — especially against Calgary.

  28. PunjabiOil says:

    Last year he was 3rd in the NHL behind only Crosby and Sedin in 5v5 pts/60 , too bad it only lasted 22 games.

    Actually it was 47 games.

    Ales Hemsky is a good hockey player. The Edmonton Oilers need more good hockey players, not less.

    I suspect right now Tambellini is ”evaluating.” You hope it doesn’t get to the deadline. A considerable overpayment (Ellis), there is no reason you don’t sign Hemsky.

    Yes, he has had a weak season this year – yet, it’s about projection. Is it not plausible Hemsky returns to his previous form and shooting percentage progresses back to the mean? Is it not plausible Hemsky’s shoulder concerns are over, and that his prime years (28-32) are ahead of him? The fact there is, that there is no one in the pipeline available to replace Hemsky anytime soon.

    Cap concern? Oilers well below the cap, will have Souray’s (2.4M this year and 1.5M next season) off the books soon. Khabibulin 1 year remaining. If Whitney does not play to his standards next year, there is another 4M in play. Horcoff could perhaps be bought out under the new CBA at no cap hit, and re-signed at a cheaper rate. Not to mention Hall and RNH are already carrying cap hits close to 3.8M already.

    I for one, will be disgusted if they trade Hemsky for suspects like Blum and a late 1st round pick.

  29. Gret99zky says:

    McSorely Head:
    Calgary play by play man alright, but Charlie Simmer is Debrusk-lite.

    It bothers me that Kerr has a full second picture-feed-delay so he can sound better. He calls the goal before it crosses the line for Christ sake!

  30. Alice says:

    83.
    Where the hell else Should that number go? Another 4 years, then a sunset contract. Tape to tape.
    Why not?

    Throw him under the bus for magic beans – at the end of the day it’s an entertainment business, and part of that is having continuity, not being a revolving door.

    And the other part is, well, entertainment.

    I’m in the Eastern time zone, I have plenty of sleep I could be getting instead of following this crowd. Keep the man.

  31. Jordan says:

    For the record, in Bob Stauffer’s interview with Hall after the game Hall clearly states that he wants Hemsky to stay. I don’t have the transcript but it was something along the lines of: “…hope we stay together for a long time…We produce a lot of chances of the rush together.”

    I’ll repost this tomorrow too. I think everyone should know that Hall wants more Hemsky. Especially Oilers fans.

  32. bookje says:

    Just finished the game on PVR and noticed a few things.

    1. This Oiler team seems better coached – they seem to know their role better. I wonder if Kruger is a nice balance between Renny/MacT overcoaching and Quinn undercoaching. To be honest, I don’t know enough to know – you know, but they just seem a little more clearheaded tonight. I also like the lines and the assignments a bit better.

    2. Ben Eager is starting to fill that role that he is supposed to – 3rd/4th liner who bangs a bit and provides a little offence here and there. If Belange can come back from the dead, then the summer additions are not so bad.

    3. I like watching the 9th place Calgary Flames getting hammered – I look forward to someone asking Feaster if the team is ready to follow the Oilers model again this summer.

    4. If you have reached the level of NHL GM, you should have someone to tell you to grow your fucking hair out a little bit. That man has worse hair than Donald Trump. People with big knobby heads and thin bristly hair should not go with a near shaved look. Jay Feaster looks way to much like Uncle Fester for me.

  33. bookje says:

    Jordan:
    For the record, in Bob Stauffer’s interview with Hall after the game Hall clearly states that he wants Hemsky to stay.I don’t have the transcript but it was something along the lines of: “…hope we stay together for a long time…We produce a lot of chances of the rush together.”

    I’ll repost this tomorrow too.I think everyone should know that Hall wants more Hemsky.Especially Oilers fans.

    I don’t understand how Hall’s opinion can be relevant when he seems to spend very little of his time reading and commenting on hockey blogs.

  34. PunjabiOil says:

    Dreger saying via his new blog that the asking price for Ales Hemsky is an NHL roster player.

  35. Kert says:

    PunjabiOil:
    Dreger saying via his new blog that the asking price for Ales Hemsky is an NHL roster player.

    Like Barker¿¡

  36. Woodguy says:

    That’s Horcoff, Gilbert and Hall who have stated publically that they want Hemsky to stay.

    That the Captain, Assistant Captain and the Franchise.

    Is v3.2 listening?

    I hope so.

    I like how Kruger coached in the last game too. Moved the guys around so the best players (that night) go the most ice time.

    Players who played for Bowman all said his best trait was figuring out who was going that night, then riding them.

    Renney has none of that. He sets his lines and sends them out, results be damned.

  37. Woodguy says:

    bookje: I don’t understand how Hall’s opinion can be relevant when he seems to spend very little of his time reading and commenting on hockey blogs.

    Hall must have been first off the ice after the game, then slouched during the interview.

  38. Rebilled says:

    Couldn’t have this game AFTER the trade deadline, of course.

    The peanuts just got bigger.

    DON’T GO FOR THE PEANUTS ST!

  39. Wolfie says:

    Tonight was date night with the wife so we’re watching Parenthood on PVR as I’m keeping an eye on the Oilers on Gamecenter. Wasn’t expecting to see the Oilers have any kind of success against the Flames, especially in Calgary and with Kipper starting.

    I like the makeup of the lines tonight. I think the luxury with Taylor Hall is you can play him with virtually anybody. I know it’s hard to breakup the Eberle, Hall tandem but I think going forward in order to bring balance to the lineup you need to split them up. I really like Gagner with Eberle and I think Hall with the Nuge and Hemsky would be a very nice trio. Matchups will be much harder for the opposition with the kind of threat both lines could bring.

    Sign Hemsky!

  40. PunjabiOil says:

    Career high 9 shots for Taylor Hall tonight.

    Leads team with 168 shots on goal. Once he starts converting those break-away chances, his numbers will spike.

  41. Clay says:

    Thank you Jebus for this island of fun in a vast ocean of suck.

    Even the most ardent Hemsky detractor will miss him when he’s gone.

    The D pairings tonight seemed to do fairly well. And that early break away pass by 6 to 4 was angelic. Amazing how much less they suck when Cool Hands Barker is eating popcorn.

  42. VOR says:

    DSF,

    Thank you. Until I started our endless debate I had never given the issue of how GMs make payroll decisions serious amounts of thought. Now I am coming to see that there is probably a wealth of data to be mined and analysed amd a variety of testable hypotheses. It should keep me happily occupied for the rest of this season and into the summer.

    I’m sorry I was giving you a hard time earlier. I shouldn’t mock you or engage in ad hominem attacks. I did learn, and I owe it to you, that cap hit and salary numbers don’t give the same result regardless of what metric you use. That is there is some evidence that GMs think of salaries and caphits in different ways and of course they should. I just had no idea who to test that hypothesis before.

    I have also come to realize that the more profound question may be which point in a career, what segment of a career, is most predicitve of salary/caphit and is it equally predictive of future performance? I think we all know the answer to that question: there are clearly arbitrage opportunities for the alert GM. The thing is how to identify them and capitalize on them.

    So once again my apoliges and thanks.

    VOR

  43. Clay says:

    Hall with 19:57 tonight too. Thank you coach Ralph!

  44. PunjabiOil says:

    DSF lost all credibility earlier this year when he suggested Taylor Hall was the next Ethan Moreau.

    He wasn’t joking either.

  45. Ribs says:

    Petry played 4 minutes more than any Oiler. +2, and assist, and 4 shots. Outstanding showing from him.

    It was sure nice of the Flames to not show up to tonight’s game. A nice little confidence boost for the Oilers.

  46. OilClog says:

    Woodguy,

    They’re listening, but they don’t care. They prove this with every move they make. The entire organization can say they want hemsky to stay.. but it’s not changing anything. ST is as stubborn as they get, when it comes to making a stance regardless of how ridiculous it is.

    Hemsky. 5yr/25m let’s go.

  47. cabbiesmacker says:

    bookje:
    .Jay Feaster looks way to much like Uncle Fester for me.

    Hahaha. Have a look at Petrell vs dude in Shaun of the Dead. Ringer. For a real hoot compare PeeWee Herman and Brad Marchand. They even sound the same.

    Agreed on Ralphy boy vs Renney coaching. Said the same thing during the last game.vs Van.

  48. cabbiesmacker says:

    PunjabiOil:
    DSF lost all credibility earlier this year when he suggested Taylor Hall was the next Ethan Moreau.
    He wasn’t joking either.

    No more than you lost being so adamant that Taylor Hall was heads and tails over Seguin pre-draft Mr Scout.

  49. Clay says:

    Another tidbit – Hall, Gagner, and Eberle combined for the same amount of shots on goal as the entire Flames team.

    So has Gagner turned a corner, or is it just a hot streak? 20 points in 12 games, and even if you take out the 8 point game, he’s still been a ppg for a month.

    I gotta say, it’s exciting to think he may be actually coming into his own.

  50. cabbiesmacker says:

    During the game I was thinking….”how good would Hemsky and Hall look together with a real center between them?”

  51. oilersfan says:

    does petry remind anybody else here of keith yandle?

    gagner is actually starting to remind me of gilmour. not kidding

  52. Gerta Rauss says:

    Full marks for the win tonight.This team–and it’s fanbase–are Jekyl and Hyde.It’s weird and it’s wonderful.

    Petry looked great again-his play lately might be the biggest story of the second half of this season.Gagner looked good as well-hell at 6-1 they all looked good.

  53. spoiler says:

    Flames were missing some oomph tonight, and Glencross & Stempniak, but that was still a pretty smart game up and down the line up by the Oil.

    There’s obviously some linemate effect helping Gagner, but he still has to perform and he hasn’t let his mates down (on the whole). There’s obviously a whole lot of confidence there right now too.

    Petry. Wow. How long now has the kid’s arrows been pointing forward? He just keeps taking the league in stride with rarely a misstep. We might be watching a #2 in the making.

  54. spoiler says:

    Gagner is the headline on TSN. Scoring 8 in a game sure puts a body on the map.

  55. Lucinius says:

    I liked Petry as well, but honestly I think his partner plays a large part in that. When his partner stumbles, whomever it may be and to whatever degree, it seems to really throw him off and ruin his entire game. But if his partner is stable (consistency being more important than high end ability) he really seems to settle into games and play well.

    The times this year where he was bad that really stood out for me was you could see his partner flailing a bit and as the game wore on Petry got worse and worse, like he couldn’t get the monkey off his back and he was over thinking things and trying to compensate all in the wrong ways.

  56. Bos8 says:

    It’s like the planet that no one saw but could see the effect. For all the Petry praise, see Smid for affecting the effect.

  57. Woodguy says:

    Bos8:
    It’s like the planet that no one saw but could see the effect.For all the Petry praise, see Smid for affecting the effect.

    Good players play better when playing with good players.

    So when building a team, its probably a good idea to acquire and keep good players.

    Sign Hemsky!

  58. godot10 says:

    OilClog:
    Woodguy,

    Hemsky. 5yr/25m let’s go.

    You mean that Hemsky is going to be the first UFA in his prime to sign without a pay increase, without a pay increase for the entire length of a long term contract? Offer him less than Ryan Smyth was offered 5 years ago? Offer him less than Horcoff?

    Hemsky advocates can’t have it both ways. You say he is a great player, and then lowball him on a contract offer.

  59. hags9k says:

    What a difference without Barker is exactly right. Tough luck for him but it looks like he will be in Europe or the A next year.

    Gagner still beastin. #2 C. No need to draft a Russian. Take Murray. 89 and 14 are looking real good together. Can’t wait to see the Nuge slot back in soon!

    Interesting days ahead. Will he stay or will he go?

    GOILERS

  60. Beaker says:

    hags9k:

    Gagner still beastin.#2 C.No need to draft a Russian.Take Murray.

    Take BPA. I wish people would stop suggesting they shouldn’t. If Murray is BPA then take him. If its a Russian, take him.

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