G59 Oilers at Flames

This week, we’ll be devoting a tremendous amount of time to Ales Hemsky. I remember well the moment he became an Oiler: Kevin Lowe exercised the option to “swap picks” with Boston at the 2001 entry draft–an option that was paid for as part of the Billy Guerin for Anson Carter trade months before the draft.

Ales Hemsky is an outstanding talent, and the truth is that he has miles and miles to go. This week, we can begin to put Hemsky’s feats as an Oiler into perspective.

OILER CAREER ASSISTS (FORWARDS)

  1. Gretzky 1086 in 696 games (1.56)
  2. Messier 642 in 851 games (.754)
  3. Kurri 569 in 754 games (.755)
  4. Anderson 489 in 845 games (.579)
  5. Weight 420 in 588 games (.714)
  6. Smyth 305 in 828 games (.368)
  7. Hemsky 302 in 535 games (.564)

Hemsky’s assists came during what might be described as a borderline deadball era, making the totals even more impressive. Also impressive: his consistency.

5X5/60

  • 2011-12: 1.58
  • 2010-11: 2.88
  • 2009-10: 2.85
  • 2008-09: 2.08
  • 2007-08: 2.36
  • 2006-07: 2.09
  • 2005-06: 2.17

All but 05-06 is courtesy Gabe at behind the net and the 05-06 comes from nhl.com and my Casio (so it is EV/60 for that season). The guy has been very consistent and odds are he’ll hit 2.00 or close by season’s end.

It is absolutely stunning that the issue has been framed in a way that Hemsky is derided for being inconsistent or unreliable. Ales Hemsky has had injury issues as he approached the peak of his career, but there is no evidence that he’s eroding as a skill player.

Last night, there was some buzz about Hemsky possibly “softening” his stance on a long term contract and a 2-3 year deal might be in the cards. I don’t think we can believe much the week of the trade deadline, but it would be music if true.

Pat over at BDHS has the third in a trio of brilliant 83 posts up today, I suggest reading all three in order.

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260 Responses to "G59 Oilers at Flames"

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  1. stevezie says:

    The Krejci deal fills me with a tremendous amount of hope.

  2. hunter1909 says:

    Glad to hear he(his agent imo) is “softening” to a 2-3 year deal, because unless he agrees to that he’s not going to be an oiler for much longer.

    The facts stick out like a broken femur bone: Hall, Eberle, RNH are now ahead of him on the forward depth chart, especially when taking the cap into consideration. Hemsky’s no longer the man, which probably suits him anyway.

    Toss in the Horcoff contract(so sorry but wtf it IS the 400 pound gorilla cap wise), and no way can Tambo break the bank for him, not anymore.

    Sure would be nice if he stays, lol.

    PS: Win Win situation tonight v the Flames – either oilers win and help mess up the Calagrian’s (yes i know it’s a typo but it stays) playoff chances; or they lose and then help the Flames dream their little playoff bubble team dream…which oiler fans such as myself see like a nightmare for them, since there’s no way they can ever win anything, not with that lineup.

  3. Lowetide says:

    Horcoff’s contract may not be as much of an issue one year from now (the new CBA might give them a chance to buy him out without cap implications–it’s been discussed) and even with that the Oilers can get there. By the time Hall/Eberle need contracts, the NK and Whitney deals will off the books.

    Sign a less expensive starter than NK and find another way to replace Whitney and they’re back to do.

  4. hunter1909 says:

    “may…might”… doesn’t quite cut it, does it?

  5. blackdog says:

    Thanks LT

    Cap’s not an issue. Its not, Horcoff or not. They’re paying 4mm to buyouts/waived players this year alone. Smyth is going to take a haircut too. Next year it will be Khabi and Whitney. They have room going forward even with raises for the kids.

    I truly believe every issue put up is a straw man as long as doctors clear the shoulder. If they do not then cut him loose but if the issue is not likely to recur then that’s the last argument against signing him as long as he does not want the moon.

  6. Woodguy says:

    I think this is a winnable game.

    CAL has been hot lately, but as PDO pointed out to me (when discussing the merits of betting on the Oilers) CAL they are 8-2-5 in the last 15, with only 2 clear wins (wins by more than 1 goal)

    One of those wins was when they spanked the Oilers in EDM.

    The line is EDM +150, CAL -170. If Krueger is coaching and Barker is in the PB I think there’s a little bit of value in betting on the OIlers.

    DD knows he’s playing without looking over his shoulder, and I think that will help.

    I understand that if they are trying to trade Barker they should play him, but as it stands they will be lucky to get a 6th for him, and he drags the whole team down.

    Sit him down and give your players confidence.

    I think the OIlers lose 4-3.

    Hall, Horcoff and Smyth with the goals, Hemsky with a point, Whitney goes -2

    If they play Barker, they lose 5-2

    Go Oilers!!

    *clap, clap*

  7. Bos8 says:

    I didn’t like the Smyth “Return of the Prodigal” and I still don’t. It’s a shell game, a fan misdirection, a shtick that does not benefit the team. Shane comes back.

    And now comes salary. Helloo

    Anyone think Smyth will accept less than two years at three mil? It’s like a middle age Lothario
    with the comb over, many gold chains and white bucks. Smyth did more with less than any other player I know, can’t no more. The bill paying is never exciting.

  8. regwald says:

    thanks LT for the Hemsky tributes … He’s been my favorite Oiler for a number of years now and I will hate to see him go. I hope they work something out this week. If not, then my jersey will get hung in the closet where my Smyth jersey used to reside. Sad times if it happens.

    Also, thanks for the video of the Detroit goal. Never realized it until you posted it, but my parents are part of the crowd shots. They were there cheering their hearts out as I was

  9. nelson88 says:

    Lowetide,

    I think your last point regarding Whitney/replacement is an important one that seems to be getting lost in the strong opinions and the rhetoric.

    In an ideal; non-capped world, of course you would keep Hemsky to boost your offense. He is a very good player but would your rather have $5MM to spend on a #1/2 D? No brainer in my mind with how this team is developing with RNH, Eberle, Hall and possibly Gagner.

    To put it another way and perhaps in the context of the current Nash discussion. I remember the day the Bruins traded Thornton and pretty much everyone on the planet, including those in my hockey pool, agreed the Bruins got absolutely fleeced and Bruins GM loses his job. Good GM comes in (yes, i get this is where it departs from Oiler reality) and uses that cap money to sign Chara and other pieces. We all know how that supposed steal of a deal for SJ has worked out for the respective teams. Cap space matters.

    Having said that. If indeed Hemsky and his agent have misjudged the market for his services and are willing to sign a 2 or 3 year deal at a reasonable market rate I am all for signing him.

  10. Bos8 says:

    The scene in days of yore was – Hemsky doodled, Horcoff worked hard and Smyth stood in front of the net screening the goaltender, effectively out of play. Come to think of it – How the hell did Hemsky get all those assists?

  11. nelson88 says:

    If Hemsky does get dealt I’m surprised there haven’t been more rumblings (perhaps I have just missed them?) regarding Washington as a destination. Backstrom out with a concussion and the Caps on the bubble to even make the playoffs.

    A deal centered around Alzner or Carlson with other pieces to make it work?

  12. Zack says:

    Horcoff – Oh man, I’ve struggled to grasp the severity of his contract until now. After this season he will only be halfway through, is this contract impacting other signings?

    Since there is a good chance we won’t get full value on Hemsky’s return I hope we can at least get a deal on his possible contract proposal. The closer we get to deadline the more I want Hemsky to stay. It doesn’t seem like there’s a strong enough relationship between Hemsky and management for him to be a true rental, it’s a shame really.

  13. rickithebear says:

    If i am an agent for Gilbert, Smid, Hall, Eberle, RNH. I am praying for a 5.5M contract. that would be 22% over standard performance contract. Ii would expect the same bump for my client.
    Gilbert 4.75M x 1.2 = 5.7M
    Smid 3.375 X 1.2 = 4.05M
    Hall 5.3M X 1.22 = 6.4M
    Eberle 5.3M x 1.22 = 6.4M
    RNH 5.8M X 1.22 = 7.1M

    The y do not deliver. To the papers.
    Team showing they do not want X like they wanted Hemsky. Fans will go nuts!

  14. MUTT14 says:

    Thanks LT for being such an outspoken supporter of the keep Hemsky camp. He is not an elite player, he is not the best player on the team (anymore), however, he is an excellent and highly skilled player that has years of point production in front of him. Teams that are consistently good, consistently find ways to keep their top tier players because they can’t get the same value in a TD deal or by overpaying free agents. If the oilers get this done they should definitely be competitive next year. If not its still 2-3 years out IMO.

    I doubt, however that the Hemsky camp is softening much. If he doesn’t get paid now he will on July 1.

  15. Clay says:

    The morning stiffs on the FAN 960 have been calling this “guaranteed win night” for the fLames since last Thursday. I want to be mad at that, but how can you?

    If Tambo can work out a reasonable deal with Hemsky before Monday, that would be amazing. Perhaps enough to restore a sliver of hope in this management group.

    @rickithebear – those are some fun numbers. I’m curious how you came up with them, as 4 of the 5 players you list don’t make anywhere near those base numbers in cap hit or salary. What does “The y do not deliver. To the papers.” mean?

  16. UndisclosedPersonalReasons says:

    @rickithebear – I do not follow how these numbers are arrived at. The formula seems suspect.

    RNH making 7.1mil his next contract?

  17. Ducey says:

    Blue Jays pitchers and catchers report today. Its spring somewhere!

    With recent wins from Carolina and Buffalo the Oilers are now 7 points out of 27th. They can afford to win one tonight and still keep their shot at Grigorenko.

    A couple of my Flames fan buddies are less than enthused about the possibility of the Flames making the playoffs. They know they will get steam rolled in the first round and it will just delay their rebuild.

  18. misfit says:

    hunter1909: “may…might”… doesn’t quite cut it, does it?

    The cap “might” go down. Horcoff’s contract gets in the way of paying the kids what they “might” demand in 2 years.

    Forgetting potential changes to the CBA and instead dealing only with the absolutes of the current CBA, there are systems/tools in place for even a mildly creative GM with resources to rid themselves of a contract without any cap implications. Sather’s done it twice already.

    Horcoff’s contract isn’t a problem until it is. And when it is…it isn’t.

  19. Bos8 says:

    Never mind Hemsky numbers. Hall and Eberle hate losing, it drives them. How do you sell them on “In five years we’ll be great. At age 20 five years is a lifetime. It better be “Next year we’ll be great”, or you’ll lose the intensity.

  20. spoiler says:

    WG

    I’d consider this a winnable game, if the Flames hadn’t been taking us out behind the woodshed on such a regular basis. And if Nuge was playing. And if Barker was at home looking at Oh Oklahoma! playbills.

  21. Bos8 says:

    I hope that Galchenyuk comes back strong from the ACL injury. My greatest fear is at the draft we hear “And with the third pick the Oilers are proud to select Nail Yakupov”.

  22. jjev says:

    Thanks for posting Lt. I’m a long time reader-first time poster.

    I was at that game in 2006 in the first video. A buddy of mine had been given two tickets from somewhere and called me minutes before the game started. We got there in time but the first two periods made me worry that the series was heading back to Detroit. I remember going outside for a smoke during the second intemission when the Oilers were still down by at least a goal (I don’t remember). Being an Oiler fan who came of age after the glory years I was preparing for yet another hard fought first round exit (even though the Oil had a game in hand).

    When Hemsky scored that goal the building exploded. My friend (sitting to my left) and I jumped to our feet cheering, giving high fives, yelling and so on… the guy on my right, who I did not know, grabbed me and lifted me off my feet. That was the most excited I’ve ever seen one person get at a hockey game.

    Round 1, Game six, 2006 was the greatest game I ever attended as an Oiler fan due to Ales Hemsky. It’s also probably the reason I’ve stayed interested in the team for six years since.

    I won’t be able to look at the Oilers the same again when they trade him for pennies on the dollar this week.

  23. Captain Obvious says:

    The cap space argument is a red herring. As of right now the Oilers are 25 million under the cap for 15 players. They could give their first round pick 4M, Hemsky 5M, two defensemen another 9M, give Gagner 3.5 M, Petry 1.5 M, Dubnyk 1.5 M (all numbers completely made up) and and still be under the cap.

    Then in 2013 Eberle and Hall will need raises and Smid will be UFA. But they’ll have 9.5 M to spend from the corpses of Khabibulin, Whitney, and Souray. That’s more than enough to keep all three.

    Paying good money to good players does not create cap problems. The time for this team to strike is now. Improvement from young players is neither guaranteed nor linear. It is pretty likely that we are wasting the best season of Eberle’s career as we speak. Waiting for inevitable improvements of young players is not a plan.

    With intelligent investment of resources this team should be able to make the playoffs next year without sacrificing anything for tomorrow.

    Keep Hemsky and sign two good defensemen and this team can make the playoffs next year even with Renney wasting roster spots on “energy” players.

  24. rickithebear says:

    Pretty simple:
    1. goals are valued.
    2. Desjardins stats allow you to group a player.
    3. Real production versus the rest of the league.
    4. Break the player up into the production levels.
    Goals: 50, 40, 35, 30, 25, 20, and i thought assists but points is valued more.
    You end up with 12 defined groups based on pace. with examples.
    A. 50G-85P Stamkos, Malkin
    B. 40G-65 to 75P Toews, Neal, Kessel, Sharp, Gaborik, Hartnell
    C. 35G – 75 + Tavares, Eberle, Giroux, D. Sedin, Kovalchuk, Moulson, Hall
    D. 30G – 75 + Hossa, Lupul, Elias, Spezza, Versteeg
    E. 35g – 65 tO 75p Couture, Vrbata, Perry, Michalek
    F 30g – 65 tO 75p Backstrom, Seguin, Vanek, Marchand, Lucic, Lecavalier, Marleau
    G. 25G-75+ Benn, pomminville, RNH
    H. 25G-65 to 75P bergeron, Parise, Alfredsson, Kopitar, Jagr, Weiss, Henrique.
    I. 20G -75+ Datsyuk, St. louis, H. Sedin, Parenteau
    J. 30G – 45 to 65P h& I are similiar Cap hit.
    K. 25G – 45 to 65P
    L. 20G – 45 to 65P

    Hall eberle are in the C group range but fall short in the D-F range 5.5M
    RNH will likely be Group G & I 5.75M +
    IJ group is 4.5M

    So a rough base. but better than the numbers being pulled out of thier ……………..

  25. jake70 says:

    “It is pretty likely that we are wasting the best season of Eberle’s career as we speak”

    I’ll give you possible, but “pretty likely”, I find that a stretch given his usual linemates aren’t at their peak yet. Also, I wouldn’t advise roster decisions based on that belief, just too early.

  26. LMHF#1 says:

    Captain Obvious:

    It is pretty likely that we are wasting the best season of Eberle’s career as we speak.

    Seriously? I’m going to start calling #14 Rodney. Come on man.

  27. Woodguy says:

    spoiler:
    WG

    I’d consider this a winnable game, if the Flames hadn’t been taking us out behind the woodshed on such a regular basis.And if Nuge was playing. And if Barker was at home looking at Oh Oklahoma! playbills.

    But OIler killers Lee Fucking Stepniak and Glenn No Return Call Glencross aren’t playing.

    Barker is key.

    No $ being wagered until I see the line rushes from the morning skate.

  28. VOR says:

    rickibear;

    Unless you have some proof for item (1. Goals are valued) then the rest of your work is wasted. I have asked repeatedly for some proof that goals are valued more than assists and points. Nobody has offered any.

    I have now looked at the 100 highest paid players (based on salaries this year) and the strongest correlation to salary is points, followed by assists, followed by goals. The correlation is weak even for points r = .35. When we look at players split into groups, RW, LW, C, D the correlations rise but only to r = .5 for points and r = .48 for assists and goals. That is still incredibly weak.

    I should point out that I have looked at all three metrics for career, last year before signing, and last three years before signing and only career numbers match up at this level. I am planning to try goals per game per 60 etc. But if you know of some study that proves GMs value goals more than other metrics please post it here. I’d love to know how it is GMs value players, seems like a black box but maybe somebody has actually done the research. Perhaps if I look at all salaries in the NHL there is a correlation to goals, at least by position.

    When you so undervalue points your groupings fall apart. I mean you have group after group all of which share the characteristic of 75+ points. Plus, some of these guys are UFAs this year and due raises. On top of which are we talking cap hit or salary? Not to mention a ton of people are missing from your groups so how many did you look at? Why did you exclude some? Are you doing career average goals, goals they scored the year they signed their current contracts, goals they are on pace for this year, etc.? Plus, neither Eberle or Hall have hit the level you have them at yet. How did you decide where to put RNH? Finally, you have RNH getting the biggest dollars and in the lowest grouping of any of the three. What is up with that?

  29. Wolfpack says:

    Until the emergence of Hall and Eberle, Hemsky was my favourite Oiler over the past decade. Through a lot of tough years, he was one of the few reasons to watch this team. My brain is fighting with my heart over what I want to see in this situation. Biggest concern is Hemsky’s injury history. Also, the fact that we should probably be investing dollars on upgrading our defence. But on the other side of the coin, I think there are two reasons I’d like to see him stay. One is that I don’t think the Oilers will get a great return for him right now. The second is that I don’t think you can go out and get that level of talent for under $5M anyway. The Oilers sure can’t get that kind of UFA unless they over-pay, and I don’t see teams lined-up to trade those types of players either.

    Two years from now, when the Oilers are respectable, I think that Hemsky could be a great option as 2nd line RW and second PP unit QB. I guess the question is, should that type of contribution warrant north of $5/M per year? That clip of his goal against the Wings reminded me how good he was in the playoffs that year.

  30. Woodguy says:

    Woodguy: But OIler killers Lee Fucking Stepniak and Glenn No Return Call Glencross aren’t playing.

    Barker is key.

    No $ being wagered until I see the line rushes from the morning skate.

    The time limit for editing is too short dammit!

    Curtis “Lowe won’t Return My Call” Glencross, obv, not Glen.

  31. Captain Obvious says:

    VOR,

    Two questions.

    Did you break the contracts into type. I think one of the reasons the correlations are weak is because the value of contracts is so strongly dependent upon which contract it is (entry level, RFA, UFA extension signed before going to market, or genuine UFA). If you broke the contracts into types I’d bet the correlations (in general) would rise.

    Second, are these correlations between points prior to signing the contract? I would expect the correlation to decline for seasons that occur after the contract is signed.

    As to Eberle, it is impossible for either his shooting percentage or his on-ice shooting percentage to increase. This means that in order for him to put up better numbers him and his linemates are going to have to generate a lot more shots. Simply put he’s going to have to improve a lot just to stay the same.

  32. adamjames says:

    Bos8:
    I hope that Galchenyuk comes back strong from the ACL injury.My greatest fear is at the draft we hear “And with the third pick the Oilers are proud to select Nail Yakupov”.

    Yeah, getting the clear cut consensus number one prospect at three sure would be a shame. Because every team would hate to draft a “Ovechkin Lite” type player

  33. DSF says:

    @VOR

    Top 20 NHL forwards ranked by cap hit. Career highs in goals.

    Ovechkin – $9.538M – 65

    Crosby – $8.7M – 51

    Malkin – $8.7M – 47

    Staal – $8.25M – 45

    Nash – $7.8M – 41

    Lecavalier – $7.7M – 52

    Gaborik -$7.5M – 42

    Heatley – $7.5M – 50

    Stamkos – $7.5M – 51

    Gomez – $7.35M – 33

    Vanek – $7.14M – 43

    Spezza – $7M – 34

    Thornton – $7M – 37

    Iginla – $7M – 52

    Marleau – $6.9M – 44

    Kopitar – $6.8m – 34

    M. Koivu – $6.75M – 22

    Datsyuk – $6.7M – 32

    Semin – $6.7M – 40

    Backstrom – $6.7M – 33

    I think it’s pretty clear that goal scorers get paid.

    Only one player on that list that hasn’t scored at least 30 and only three who would considered to be primarily set up men in Backstrom, Koivu and Datsyuk.

    There’s no reason to believe that GM’s will place less value on goal scoring as you move down the food chain.

  34. UndisclosedPersonalReasons says:

    @rickithebear – I appreciate the effort to put a formula to predicting contracts but I suggest that a system that values Vrbata over Datyuk, H. Sedin and St. Louis is flawed. Your point, however, that we’re going to be shelling out dough for the kids is taken. But, as others point out, the situation may not be so dire and signing Hemsky likely won’t mean losing the kids (it could mean not getting a top pairing D next season, though).

    @vor – I like the analysis and look forward to reading more once you finish. I would argue that an r > 0.3 is relatively strong in this case. Points, assists and goals are likely to be the strongest correlates to salary unless you get into advanced stats. Are you looking at any advanced stats? I also think it’s important to differentiate position. Other factors will affect contract as well that won’t be possible to analyze (e.g., market, team need, loony GMs).

  35. Ducey says:

    It is pretty likely that we are wasting the best season of Eberle’s career as we speak.

    As to Eberle, it is impossible for either his shooting percentage or his on-ice shooting percentage to increase. This means that in order for him to put up better numbers him and his linemates are going to have to generate a lot more shots. Simply put he’s going to have to improve a lot just to stay the same.

    Eberle has 128 shots. Kessel has 210. I think there is some room for Eberle to increase the number of shots he takes. If he took the same number as Kessel has (an increase of 1.6 a game) and only scored on 12%, he would have the same number of goals (25) as he does now.

    I would expect he would get better at shot generation as he, his linemates, and the team improves. In fact, the Oilers are near the bottom in shot generation as a team (something that will likely move towards the average) As well, he is likely to get better at defence and coverage with more experience.

    I have feeling that despite your prediction, that Eberle has a few good years left in him yet.

  36. Gerta Rauss says:

    Haven’t seen a full line up yet but it looks like Doobie starts and both Potter and Hordichuk draw in.

  37. regwald says:

    Gerta Rauss,

    Jones sits and Eager plays with Smyth and Belanger. Horidchuk with Lander and Pettrel.

    Potter in for Barker.

    As per twitter – Dan Tencer and Stauffer

  38. Captain Obvious says:

    Ducey,

    Of course Eberle has good seasons left in him. I’m simply suggesting that he probably won’t ever be a pt/game player again.

    In the history repeats itself category, when Eberle turns into only a 70 point player, how long do you think it will take the media and fanbase to run him out of town when he has a down year and only puts up 50 points.

  39. rickithebear says:

    It was a rough:

    In the past i would have grouped based on: toughs, Ga, Corsi and production, type of contract EL, RFA, UFA.

    This was based on clear lines in the sand relative to goasl and assists. (points)

    It is not as acurate as looking at Horcoffs desjardins situation and seeing two years ago that specific UFA average was 5.25M, last years 5M and this year 4.3M, while this year that rfa contract was 2.3m

    No better proof than this years 20G 75+ group average higher than 25G 75+. the 20g group are mostly UFA, the 25G largely EL, RFA.

    but i will be damned if a player who is less than 20G and 75P for his carrer should ever be considered in these groups. That kind of lack of Goal production takes the players in the 4.5M range.

    Thoug in this case i will further break them in to The three contract groups. Cause the Contract variance intrests me. The rainman list aspect of me. That happens between 10-11:30 each night.
    while the wife and three kids are asleep.

    Yes she does call me ray!

  40. Woodguy says:

    VOR:
    rickibear;

    Unless you have some proof for item (1. Goals are valued) then the rest of your work is wasted. I have asked repeatedly for some proof that goals are valued more than assists and points. Nobody has offered any.

    I have now looked at the 100 highest paid players (based on salaries this year) and the strongest correlation to salary is points, followed by assists, followed by goals. The correlation is weak even for points r = .35. When we look at players split into groups, RW, LW, C, D the correlations rise but only to r = .5 for points and r = .48 for assists and goals. That is still incredibly weak.

    I should point out that I have looked at all three metrics for career, last year before signing, and last three years before signing and only career numbers match up at this level. I am planning to try goals per game per 60 etc. But if you know of some study that proves GMs value goals more than other metrics please post it here. I’d love to know how it is GMs value players, seems like a black box but maybe somebody has actually done the research. Perhaps if I look at all salaries in the NHL there is a correlation to goals, at least by position.

    When you so undervalue points your groupings fall apart. I mean you have group after group all of which share the characteristic of 75+ points. Plus, some of these guys are UFAs this year and due raises. On top of which are we talking cap hit or salary? Not to mention a ton of people are missing from your groups so how many did you look at? Why did you exclude some? Are you doing career average goals, goals they scored the year they signed their current contracts, goals they are on pace for this year, etc.? Plus, neither Eberle or Hall have hit the level you have them at yet. How did you decide where to put RNH? Finally, you have RNH getting the biggest dollars and in the lowest grouping of any of the three. What is up with that?

    Interesting stuff Vor.

    I think its also prudent to state the salary as a percentage of cap space for the first year the contract was signe3d so get more of an absolute value.

    For instance when Sharp signed for 3.9MM in 08/09 it represented 6.9% of the cap.

    6.9% of the cap today is $4.43MM.

  41. Woodguy says:

    Gerta Rauss:
    Haven’t seen a full line up yet but it looks like Doobie starts and both Potter and Hordichuk draw in.

    Barker and Jones sit.

    Who saw this coming?
    :)

  42. regwald says:

    Woodguy,

    So how many units tonight on the Oilers then ? LOL

    At least one ?

  43. bookje says:

    Captain Obvious:
    Ducey,

    Of course Eberle has good seasons left in him.I’m simply suggesting that he probably won’t ever be a pt/game player again.

    In the history repeats itself category, when Eberle turns into only a 70 point player, how long do you think it will take the media and fanbase to run him out of town when he has a down year and only puts up 50 points.

    You know, after your comment, I am already starting to get a bit tired of Eberle – he just doesn’t always seem ‘that into it’. Does the guy ever come out and drill opposing players? Nope, he seems a bit butter soft by that measure. He’s kind of a floater out there and I am not sure he really really loves Edmonton. Also, while he is now a square peg in a square hole, does anyone notice that when he plays with round players, he looks like a square peg in a round hole. Boooooooooo!!!

  44. Gerta Rauss says:

    bookje,

    I heard that Eberle was 2nd off the ice after practice.

  45. regwald says:

    Gerta Rauss,

    And his body language is really bad when Hall doesn’t pass him the puck.

  46. LMHF#1 says:

    Captain Obvious:
    Ducey,

    Of course Eberle has good seasons left in him.I’m simply suggesting that he probably won’t ever be a pt/game player again.

    Yes, and that makes you nuts.

  47. Jordan says:

    bookje: You know, after your comment, I am already starting to get a bit tired of Eberle – he just doesn’t always seem ‘that into it’.Does the guy ever come out and drill opposing players?Nope, he seems a bit butter soft by that measure.He’s kind of a floater out there and I am not sure he really really loves Edmonton.Also, while he is now a square peg in a square hole, does anyone notice that when he plays with round players, he looks like a square peg in a round hole.Boooooooooo!!!

    He’s pretty selfish too, eh? Remeber this?

    Also, wrt square pegs… I thought the Oilers were getting rid of all their square pegs, because they cost more, are too sharp and hard on the icerinks and make babies cry with their pointy corners… Oh well, I’m sure they will get rid of him soon enough.

  48. Woodguy says:

    regwald:
    Woodguy,

    So how many units tonight on the Oilers then ? LOL

    At least one ?

    Gotta now.

    1 unit. They still aren’t good, but at least they won’t be horrible.

  49. regwald says:

    Woodguy,

    and maybe those Flames will be taking the Oilers lightly. Oh would that be special to shock them at home.

  50. Woodguy says:

    DSF:
    @VOR

    Top 20 NHL forwards ranked by cap hit. Career highs in goals.

    Ovechkin – $9.538M – 65

    Crosby – $8.7M – 51

    Malkin – $8.7M – 47

    Staal – $8.25M – 45

    Nash – $7.8M – 41

    Lecavalier – $7.7M – 52

    Gaborik -$7.5M – 42

    Heatley – $7.5M – 50

    Stamkos – $7.5M – 51

    Gomez – $7.35M – 33

    Vanek – $7.14M – 43

    Spezza – $7M – 34

    Thornton – $7M – 37

    Iginla – $7M – 52

    Marleau – $6.9M – 44

    Kopitar – $6.8m – 34

    M. Koivu – $6.75M – 22

    Datsyuk – $6.7M – 32

    Semin – $6.7M – 40

    Backstrom – $6.7M – 33

    I think it’s pretty clear that goal scorers get paid.

    Only one player on that list that hasn’t scored at least 30 and only three who would considered to be primarily set up men in Backstrom, Koivu and Datsyuk.

    There’s no reason to believe that GM’s will place less value on goal scoring as you move down the food chain.

    Hold on, hold on, hold on.

    Only this year’s results are actually relevant right?
    :)

  51. Ducey says:

    Captain Obvious: Ducey, Of course Eberle has good seasons left in him. I’m simply suggesting that he probably won’t ever be a pt/game player again. In the history repeats itself category, when Eberle turns into only a 70 point player, how long do you think it will take the media and fanbase to run him out of town when he has a down year and only puts up 50 points.

    If you are alluding to Sir Ales (who hasn’t had 50 points since 08-09), 3 years, plus an extra 2 years because he is a western boy, has square edges, and doesn’t sneak around town in his invisibility cloak.

  52. DeadmanWaking says:

    I agree with BD that Hemmer doesn’t get the credit he deserves for time served. However, when he neglects to mention Pronger, Peca, Roloson, Spacek and Samsonov in conjunction with 2006, and later concludes that our management is 30′th out of 30, he loses credibility in my eyes.

    Lowe is a lot like Hemmer. He does it his own way. His stick handling in 2006 is the stuff of legends. True, he did wait to fix the 0.5 GPP leak between the pipes until it was almost too late, but he nearly pulled off the Conn Smythe at the trading wire. And true, his body language after the Smyth fiasco left a lot to be desired.

    Secondly, Katz is getting his new rink on extremely favourable terms. How does that not count as a management accomplishment? Sure, if you pluck out his two primary Peacock feathers all you have left is a vulture’s leathery ass. Why are people so determined to pluck out his Peacock feathers? Does it improve the view?

    How did our resplendent eyesore of GM oversight come to be? It was sired by the EIG and bitched by the people who ran Tom Poti out of town. The same people who now give Hemmer a C+ grade.

  53. Woodguy says:

    I gotta say Krueger scratching Barker and Jones makes me want Tom Renney to be out indefinitely with concussion like symptoms.

  54. Ducey says:

    Woodguy: I gotta say Krueger scratching Barker and Jones makes me want Tom Renney to be out indefinitely with concussion like symptoms.

    -The fact they have HS’d Barker a few times since his return seems to undermine the rumour that they were looking to re-sign him.

    -You’d rather have Hordichuk than Jones?

    -Do we know Freddie Krueger made these decisions?

  55. Woodguy says:

    Ducey: -The fact they have HS’d Barker a few times since his return seems to undermine the rumour that they were looking to re-sign him.

    -You’d rather have Hordichuk than Jones?

    -Do we know Freddie Krueger made these decisions?

    1) Yes, thank God.
    2) I’d rather have Jones as 4RW, but am very happy he’s not 3RW and checking Iginla’s line tonight. He can’t check his hat. He’s playing on the checking line, but he can’t check. Not sure Eager can check either, but lets have a look.
    3) He’s running the bench. I’m sure they discussed it, but whoever runs the bench decides who’s in and who isn’t.

  56. DSF says:

    Woodguy: Hold on, hold on, hold on.

    Only this year’s results are actually relevant right?

    No, I would think most of those contracts were signed after a significant stretch of excellence.

    I can’t think of even one contract anywhere close to that range where the player was paid on what happened 4 seasons ago.

    Can you?

  57. Jordan says:

    DSF: No, I would think most of those contracts were signed after a significant stretch of excellence.

    I can’t think of even one contract anywhere close to that range where the player was paid on what happened 4 seasons ago.

    Can you?

    Isn’t that why the Oilers signed Khabbibulin? Because he won a cup 4 or 5 years before the Oilers signed him?

    Wouldn’t that mean that Tamblowe would be the most likely to sign him of all the GMs, no? ;)

    Seriously though, while I am aware you are using this as an argument for not signing Hemsky, I would posit that considering who he has been play within for those seasons may have contributed to his lack of scoring.

    Seriously – who would be setting him up? Horcoff? Moreau? Jean Francois Jaques?

    Come on man.

  58. bookje says:

    Looks like Hemsky is going to get to play alongside of Hall tonight – I wonder if this is a ‘Sign here for a 2-3 year contract and we promise you will get to play alongside top quality linemates’ message?

  59. Traktor says:

    Downie to the Avs.

    Colorado is building a pretty solid club. Two skilled centers in Stastny and Duchene, plus a Kelser type center in Ryan O’Reilly. Landeskog and Downie bringing the grit and scoring on the wings and then their entire D is around 6’4 with Duncan Siemens on the way.

    Tambellini is going to sign Hemsky and Gagner to build a team made of popsicle sticks.

  60. LMHF#1 says:

    I’d like to submit we bring Dave Brown out of retirement rather than play the Hordichuk-types of the hockey world.

    Either that or we have him train up some impressionable youth in the art of CRAZY.

    Forget having a big team. Big teams are slow, and required to play a style that usually wears them down before the cup (Boston is the exception not the rule). Just have one totally crazy guy at your disposal.

  61. copperblueandwhite says:

    blackdog,

    Hey Blackdog, thanks for the great piece on Hemmer…makes me want to strangle management but it brought back fond memories!!

  62. skidplate says:

    How does Tampa Bay get a 1st round pick for Kyle Quincey? Has to be the relationship between Detroit and Yzerman.

  63. spoiler says:

    bookje:
    Looks like Hemsky is going to get to play alongside of Hall tonight – I wonder if this is a ‘Sign here for a 2-3 year contract and we promise you will get to play alongside top quality linemates’ message?

    Hemsky’s still on the team? It’s Pancake Tuesday. I just assumed we’d get media reports he’s over at Penner’s house.

    I wonder if the Pope would consider re-naming it “Penner Tuesday”?

  64. spoiler says:

    skidplate,

    As a favour for backdooring Colorado?

  65. Kert says:

    Just have one totally crazy guy at your disposal.
    Eager aint that far off “totally crazy”.

    re: Quincey/Downie/Wings’ 1st rounder
    So much for Hemmer to Det for their 1st + a young D man.

    @Traktor
    Colorado needs to be adding depth on the back end, not trading it away, but yes, up front they look good. Johnson and Siemens is an okay starting point, but it gets pretty ugly after that. Ryan Wilson could be a player.

  66. skidplate says:

    spoiler,

    That to. Bad history between the two clubs.

  67. spoiler says:

    According to TSN, Quincey was their number 1 Dman, if rated by the same measure we use here: TOI.

  68. LMHF#1 says:

    Kert:
    Just have one totally crazy guy at your disposal.
    Eager aint that far off “totally crazy”.

    I should have been more specific. Crazy and strong. I don’t see Eager doing too much of this: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x9N9UvLhi5Y

  69. spoiler says:

    Kert…

    Detroit was always looking for a Dman first and foremost. I couldn’t understand the rumours of Hemsky to Detroit either. I didn’t buy the meme back when LT was pushing it and I don’t now (which will likely prompt an immediate trade of Hemsky to the Wings, if my luck holds).

  70. Traktor says:

    Kert:

    @Traktor
    Colorado needs to be adding depth on the back end, not trading it away, but yes, up front they look good.Johnson and Siemens is an okay starting point, but it gets pretty ugly after that.Ryan Wilson could be a player.

    They have Hejda locked up for another 3 years as well. He’s nothing special but a decent 4-5.

    Tyson Barrie will likely be a regular next year – he has 30 points in 47 games this year in the AHL after tearing up juniors for 4 years. Stefan Elliott looks like he has a future in the NHL as well (4 goals, 11 points in 30 games with the Avs this year).

    Colorado could use another solid D but they have 43M in cap space next season. I don’t think they wanted to pay Quincey 4M.

  71. Captain Obvious says:

    Traktor:
    Downie to the Avs.

    Colorado is building a pretty solid club. Two skilled centers in Stastny and Duchene, plus a Kelser type center in Ryan O’Reilly. Landeskog and Downie bringing the grit and scoring on the wings and then their entire D is around 6’4 with Duncan Siemens on the way.

    Tambellini is going to sign Hemsky and Gagner to build a team made of popsicle sticks.

    This is the team that traded Chris Stewart and Kevin Shattenkirk for Eric Johnson and Jay McClement. This is the team that traded their first round pick for Varlamov and then trades the equivalent of another first round pick for Steve Downie.

    The Avalanche are on the short list (along with the Canadians) of teams with worse management than the Oilers. Every time they make a trade their team gets worse.

  72. Marc says:

    Scott Burnside of ESPN spoke to ‘a number of GMs from contending teams’ about Hemsky this week:

    “The major knock on Hemsky, according to a number of GMs from contending teams contacted this week, is that he is perceived as soft and that means he won’t be considered by some teams regardless how great their need is for offensive help. But Hemsky, who is making $5 million this season but comes with a slightly lower cap hit of $4.1 million, also remains attractive almost by default given how few skilled players look to be available by Feb. 27. One GM of a playoff team told ESPN.com that Hemsky might be a player they look at late in the going on the 27th.”

    http://espn.go.com/blog/nhl/post/_/id/14849/deadline-debate-gambling-on-hemsky

  73. VOR says:

    DSF,

    I can’t think of a single GM who is prove to be clairvoyant. You apparently can. That is Crosby, Kopitar and Datsyuk all had their best career years per goal since signing the contract that drives that cap hit yet you included them.

    Thus you inflate the goals they had, in Crosby’s case significantly, at the time of current contract signing. You also don’t list points since obviously they don’t matter. Though the top three in cap hit order are by points in their best season pre-contract 1,2,3, whereas by goals (the non psychic version) they are 1,13,6 in most goals in their best year.

    Obviously we all know no player could possibly be being paid for four years ago so why did you use Eric Stall’s 45 goals since they were scored 4 years pre contract signing.

  74. Traktor says:

    Captain Obvious: This is the team that traded and Kevin Shattenkirk for Eric Johnson and Jay McClement.This is the team that traded their first round pick for Varlamov and then trades the equivalent of another first round pick for Steve Downie.

    The Avalanche are on the short list (along with the Canadians) of teams with worse management than the Oilers.Every time they make a trade their team gets worse.

    Chris Stewert has 22 points this year and yet you are using him as proof that Colorado has poor management because they traded him (lol). Seems like they sold high.

    Trading a 1st rounder for Varlamov is dumb but trading a 1st rounder for Andrej Sekera according to you is brilliant.

    Colorado has a better team now and they will likely continue to in the future. They have the same amount of skill plus they have a ton of grit.

    They also have the most cap space in the entire NHL. I doubt that Colorado’s management chooses to do so voluntarily.

  75. Marc says:

    For what it’s worth, I’m increasingly convinced that he’s going to resign on a 3-4 year deal. I actually think the Oilers value him more highly than he is generally valued around the League.

  76. DeadmanWaking says:

    Here’s a second thought.

    I’ve been reading a lot about nutrition and fitness lately. Every five years or so I gird my loins and dive in. It’s twice as much mental effort as when I was reading intensely about thorium fuel cycles a few weeks ago. Xenon Poisoning is just the tip of the iceberg. Nutrition and fitness are worse: quacks and scientists and athletes, sometimes all three in the same person.

    Even in the field of nutrition and fitness, things are slowly converging to a scientific consensus. A topic fairly fresh to the scene is the role of fast-twitch muscle fibre in insulin sensitivity. Unlike the morass of pandemic obesity, expertise in sport-specific training is very high. In the NHL, I think gone forever is the era where the lunchbox squad can out-hustle a far more talented team. There just isn’t much metabolic headroom left to out-hustle in our highly conditioned athletes. Certainly not enough to sustain it for longer than a playoff series or two. Over the regular season? Fuggedabout it.

    I think our blue collar fallacy from the 1990s is even more damaging than comparing the players we have now to the jerseys in the rafters. The fitness level is now so uniformly high it’s hard to slot a Ben Johnson or Mike Tyson anywhere into the lineup to skate more than four minutes a night. Big biceps? Pylon flesh after your first shift.

    It used to be our guys were so good they could saw off while coasting and catching their breath, then explode with another gear as the situation demanded. Then we had the lunch-boxers with the high pain threshold, who perpetuated this myth. Recently we had our dead-weight forth line, vestige of a past era. Our forth line has yet to fully recover.

    I was thinking that the team toughness attribute is highly non-linear. In the animal kingdom, a tussle is most likely to end in bloodshed when the testicles are piloting evenly-matched meatships. If one is clearly better than the other, a symbolic victory is soon obtained. The victor is bathed in eau-de-trounce, and the vanquished it bathed in eau-de-trounced-upon. The outcome is encoded in the sweat glands. When the champ saunters past, suddenly the babes are thinking “my my my I never noticed his sterling character”.

    The fan formula in Edmonton is to build a team both faster and tougher. How can that possibly work? Build a roster packed with speed and one thermonuclear deterrent? Yeah, maybe if he’s equipped to rappel down to the ice from the pressbox. We tried that.

    When you start with a crusty Sasquatch who can play big minutes, a Chara or a Pronger or a Weber, then you can build a team that successfully intimidates. On the second tier you have your Torres, Cooke, Tucker, Peckham family tree: the fire-plugs who make you keep your head up with their zebra-baiting antics. A zebra is a busy creature, but one thing he knows is when you’re out of position. That’s how a guy like Pronger gets away with so much. Plus he spent his whole career mastering zebra evasion. Never stand beside Pronger when anyone else on the ice is out of position.

    I think this whole debate about Hemmer has a lot to do with these old ideas about burning the candle at both ends: tougher and faster.

    Because I like pain, I’m dabbling with a HIIT protocol. Eight repeats of 30s at maximum effort, followed by 90s rest. Maximum effort for me on the Concept2 is 2300 cal/H (we didn’t use watts when I first learned to row) for 30s once. 1800 cal/H is maximum effort that allows me to complete the routine in my first weeks. If I pull a set at 2000 cal/H in the middle of my HITT work-out, I have to fight with myself not to fold forward and rest my elbows on my kneecaps during the recovery interval (never stop moving your legs). At 2000 for 30s halfway through the workout, the last stroke feels like a whip stroke.

    1800 vs 2000? Ten percent. 100% of happy grunty grimacing pain to 110% very very unhappy primal vocalization near-to-upchuck pain. Recovery time increased by about 30%. Ability to express physical skill? Blotto. As I get into better shape, that interval between happy pain and upchuck pain will only narrow (the happy pain will however become ever more acutely acidic).

    An NHL player does my entire HIIT workout once per period–while coordinated, and paying attention to more than the giant LCD digits of pain. I just sit there in agony after any sprint in excess of 1800 (just over 21 METS by one formula I used) and think that the old 110% can’t be more than 104% in the modern NHL.

    Hustle ain’t what it used to be.

  77. Captain Obvious says:

    Traktor,

    What is interesting is how many different ways you don’t know what you are talking about. Not only is your perception of the individual players fatally askew but you don’t even know to whom they are comparable.

    The deal with the Blues is horrible because Shattenkirk was and is better than Eric Johnson, and Chris Stewart was and is better than Jay McClement. The Avalanche managed to trade away the two best players in a four player deal (though if I recall there was a first rounder in there too somewhere). That takes real skill.

    Sekera is a top NHL defensemen whilst Varlamov is a middling NHL goalie. The problem with my Sekera idea is that it is unrealistically optimistic because he is worth so much more than a first round pick. Varlamov, on the other hand, is a goalie. Enough said.

    The Avalanche just take one step back after another. I have nothing but despair for the Oilers but I know they have a better future than the Avalanche.

  78. LMHF#1 says:

    DeadmanWaking:
    Here’s a second thought.

    Steve MacIntyre was a crummy Dave Brown. Not what I’m advising. I frankly don’t think we need “toughness” up front…skate through those teams.

    Mean guys on defence though? Damn right.

  79. Traktor says:

    Captain Obvious:
    Traktor,
    Sekera is a top NHL defensemen

    Sekera ranks 4th in average TOI on Buffalo, 6 seconds more than the 5th place Mike Weber.

    He doesn’t kill penalties and he is on pace for 16 points.

    I don’t think “top NHL defensemen” means what you think it does.

    The rest of your post is the typical look how big my internet penis is. I don’t think anyone finds you impressive.

  80. Captain Obvious says:

    Traktor,

    Re: Sekera. You mean the guy with the +11 rel corsi while taking on the second toughest competition with the worst quality of teammates. In order to think that Sekera isn’t good you have to think that shots don’t matter.

  81. Gerta Rauss says:

    Thanks for that link Marc-it’s a little sobering as an Oilers fan but perception is reality for GM’s that may only see Hemsky a couple times a year.

  82. Ducey says:

    Giving up a first round pick for a guy they lost on waivers has to hurt Holland’s ego a little. I guess he’ll get over it if he is drinking out of the Cup in June.

    The deal essentially means that Downie is worth a late first rounder (plus a minor league Dman). I would not have guessed that.

  83. Traktor says:

    Captain Obvious:
    Traktor,

    Re: Sekera.You mean the guy with the +11 rel corsi while taking on the second toughest competition with the worst quality of teammates.In order to think that Sekera isn’t good you have to think that shots don’t matter.

    Why not just trade a 6th round pick for Tyler Myers? His RelCorsi is -10.4

  84. oilersfan says:

    i am surprised how around the league Hemsky is perceived as soft. clearly the reason he has been injured so often has been his willingness to go to the tough areas. i tell my flames fan buddies if the current rules were in place 5 years ago Regehr would have been suspended several times for his hits on Hemsky and Ales wouldn’t have been injured so often.

    i think this year he has been more hesitant to go to the tough areas, and that more than half of that is because he is in a contract year. I really think if we are lucky enough to sign him again that next year he will be one more year removed from major surgery, locked into a 3-4 year contract (hopefully with the oilers) and his ppg will go back up to .8 as the courage comes back.

  85. Gerta Rauss says:

    oilersfan,

    I’m not surprised by the perception of Hemsky around the league-we got a sense of his value at last years deadline(it wasn’t great iirc) and the 2nd injury and the expiring contract isn’t helping things this year. As was mentioned above, his value is greater to the Oilers than other teams around the league.

  86. spoiler says:

    I’m not sure that reputation by Hemsky isn’t well-deserved. There are oodles of highlights of him going “around the world” with the puck rather than driving the slot. IMHO, it is also his greatest weakness on the PP. Forsberg was so dangerous on the PP because he knew he always had 3 options when given the puck: shoot, pass, or drive. He was willing to take whichever option the PK D gave him.

    Not saying that Hemsky has never made the tough play; he certainly has. Whether that has consistently been his choice though, is another matter. I certainly think it has improved throughout his career as have his shooting choices.

    And hey, Jumbo Joe had that knock on him too, and I don’t think we can make the same claim about him now either.

  87. spoiler says:

    I think too that GMs place a certain premium on physicality come playoff time, and are looking for role players, not to up-end their powerplay. Perhaps that is part of the “too soft” quality to which the mystery GM refers.

  88. spoiler says:

    Since Nashville is evidently trying to prove to Suter that they’re committed to being a winner, don’t they kinda haveta sorta make some move?

  89. Gerta Rauss says:

    spoiler,

    Nashville-yes…and I imagine Dean Lombardi hasn’t been sleeping that well lately either.

  90. Marc says:

    spoiler,

    It may also be a case of once a player gets tagged with a reputation of being soft, people start looking out for it and you get confirmation bias.

    I watch most Oilers games the following day on NHL Vault, often with the other team’s broadcast. At least four or five times this year I’ve heard out of town colour guys point out Hemsky giving up the puck to avoid contact. In the Chicago game where he gave up on the icing that would have sealed the game despite having a good two steps on the Chicago player chasing him, the Chicago broadcast team were absolutely incredulous and talked about it for a good two minutes.

  91. Jordan says:

    Gerta Rauss,

    I wonder what it’s like to have an NHL GM worried about keeping their job?

  92. Gerta Rauss says:

    Jordan,

    I couldn’t tell you Jordan

    **watches twitter feed for Tambellini contract extension**

  93. Denniss says:

    Gonna miss this one – and a glovetap to Scott over at C and B for doing the chance log for me – but I don’t really care because the Oilers will lose anyway. Would be nice to see our club put a knife into Cgy’s playoff chances but it never happens.

    Biggest news is Oilers media lackeys beginning to leak some hopeful 83 news. Christ. gonna come down to the wire again like the day 94 was dealt

  94. Jordan says:

    Denniss:
    Biggest news is Oilers media lackeys beginning to leak some hopeful 83 news. Christ. gonna come down to the wire again like the day 94 was dealt

    If there is one thing that the Oilers Organization with the MSM does really REALLY well, it’s create drama. Seriously. F***ing ridiculous.

  95. stevezie says:

    spoiler,

    I’ll bet you a dollar Nashville picks up one of CBS’s big fish, but I want odds. They need the scoring and star power more than any other team in the league, and they have the youth and the cap space. I don’t think they could win a bidding war, but I think both Nash and Carter are getting their tires kicked a lot more than they’re getting genuine offers.
    One dollar.

  96. Gret99zky says:

    Denniss:
    I don’t really care because the Oilers will lose anyway. Would be nice to see our club put a knife into Cgy’s playoff chances but it never happens.

    Exactly.

    The only surprise for me tonight will be if no Oiler gets seriously hurt tonight.

    Calgary likes to smash the living shit out of our younger/weaker guys.

    Why? Because it’s so damn easy.

  97. godot10 says:

    Bos8:
    The scene in days of yore was – Hemsky doodled, Horcoff worked hard and Smyth stood in frontof the net screening the goaltender, effectively out of play.Come to think of it – How the hell did Hemsky get all those assists?

    If you look at those numbers Lowetide posted above, Hemsky had his best years when Penner was on the roster, not Smyth.

  98. russ99 says:

    So over this nonsense with Hemsky.

    Wake me up when Mr. Dithers makes a decision…

  99. Woodguy says:

    DSF: No, I would think most of those contracts were signed after a significant stretch of excellence.

    I can’t think of even one contract anywhere close to that range where the player was paid on what happened 4 seasons ago.

    Can you?

    Khabby comes to mind as the other poster mentioned.

    I prefer to pay based on .92pts/gm in the previous year, 70 games played coming off of major surgery, and .700pts/gm in the last 20 playing with Horcoff.

  100. hunter1909 says:

    Jordan: If there is one thing that the Oilers Organization with the MSM does really REALLY well, it’s create drama. Seriously. F***ing ridiculous.

    Unfortunately, the discerning fans have already seen the synopsis, script, rushes, and director’s cut. So there’s really no drama at all, only a sense of “Hey, I’ve already seen this movie”.

  101. spoiler says:

    stevezie,

    If I were to pay in Pound Sterling would that be enough odds? Oh, wait a minute, I think that swings the odds back in my favour.

    I don’t think Nashville was on Nash’s list, (although that’s a natural fit, just by name) so I can totally understand asking for odds. 3-1 sound fair?

    One Possibly Important Question:

    Is Huselius being offered around the league for less than Hemsky?

  102. spoiler says:

    Marc,

    I really enjoy that Blackhawks Broadcast Crew. I listen to them (and Emrick) whenever I get the chance. And I’ve heard them rave about Hemsky in a good way as well as ranting about him his screw ups too. They will call a spade a spade in any given game.

  103. Jordan says:

    spoiler,

    Christian Huselius is on the IR, has 0 points in 2 games this season. If he’s being offered for more, then Howson deserves to lose his job.

    I just hope he isn’t being offered to Tambi – we all know how much he likes to overpay for shiny objects…

  104. Billy Boisey says:

    Big disclaimer: I have been a huge 83 fan since I first saw him racking up gaudy assists pre-draft wearing Olympique silks. I saw a hole in the Edm roster at RW, and while we all repeat the BPA mantra before sleep at night, he, more than any other player, was the one I wanted Edm to draft.

    That said…

    Does management think Hall and Ebs and RNH and ALL of their agents and friends and people whose counsel they keep are stupid?

    Seriously.

    They are watching this whole debacle with Ales unfold, and surely there is at least a slight twinge of worry that this represents some hint of foreshadowing as to their respective fates. They are not dumb. They may even ‘gasp’ respect and admire Ales as a veteran player. They, like Ales once was, are young, brilliantly talented, relatively healthy, and being asked to go out there night after night and take a pounding, all the while management struggles to provide them with the support they need to succeed.

    Is it not likely they they might worry that they too might be publicly disgraced, their integrity questioned, if they are unfortunate to struggle with injury recovery in a FA contract year after years of loyal service to the club?

    Why be loyal to an organization which, based on track record, gives every indication it will treat you like a piece of horseflesh and ship you to the glue factory as soon as a new bauble comes along and you, even temporarily, lose a step? Why take a cut on the next contract? Why give up FA years? etc. etc. etc…

    The Oilers organization needs to treat Ales respectfully much more than he needs to be respectful of them.

  105. DSF says:

    VOR:
    DSF,

    I can’t think of a single GM who is prove to be clairvoyant. You apparently can. That is Crosby, Kopitar and Datsyuk all had their best career years per goal since signing the contract that drives that cap hit yet you included them.

    Thus you inflate the goals they had, in Crosby’s case significantly, at the time of current contract signing. You also don’t list points since obviously they don’t matter. Though the top three in cap hit order are by points in their best season pre-contract 1,2,3, whereas by goals (the non psychic version) they are 1,13,6 in most goals in their best year.

    Obviously we all know no player could possibly be being paid for four years ago so why did you use Eric Stall’s 45 goals since they were scored 4 years pre contract signing.

    I think I laid out pretty clearly what I was doing VOR.

    The bottom line is the league’s 20 highest paid forwards, Koivu excepted, have all scored 30+ goals.

    Here’s the next 20.

    Statsny 28

    Briere 34

    Toews 34

    Kane 30

    Smyth 36

    H. Sedin 29

    D. Sedin 41

    Cammalleri 39

    Elias 40

    Richards 31

    Horcoff 22

    Kessel 36

    Getzlaf 25

    Perry 50

    Gagne 47

    St. Louis 43

    Hossa 45

    Rolston 34

    Ribiero 27

    Plekanec 29

    Carter 46

    Kesler 41

    So, in this group there is only 1 player who has failed to score 25 goals in a season, none other than Shawn Horcoff.

    I guess that gives hope for those who would sign Hemsky at any cost.

    Bottom line though, is GM’s DO pay for goal scoring unless you can find another player (Horcoff and Koivu excepted) with a cap hit of $5M+ that isn’t also a goal scorer.

  106. Woodguy says:

    Gret99zky: Exactly.

    The only surprise for me tonight will be if no Oiler gets seriously hurt tonight.

    Calgary likes to smash the living shit out of our younger/weaker guys.

    Why?Because it’s so damn easy.

    Well, there’s no Reghr, no Glencross, and no Bourque.

    They were the worst of the 3 for hacking and cheap shots.

    Plus Eager is playing on the 3rd line and is probably looking to impress.

    I wouldn’t be surprised if he skates by the CAL bench and says “If you hit the kids I’m breaking Iginla’s fucking wrist”, and mean it.

    This could be an interesting game.

  107. regwald says:

    Woodguy,

    The Flames always play tougher at home. This game could have some fireworks.

  108. Lowetide says:

    Trying to keep up to date on this, so far I know of one member of the media who has talked about Hemsky 2-3 year softening. Stauffer. Anyone else?

  109. DSF says:

    Lowetide:
    Trying to keep up to date on this, so far I know of one member of the media who has talked about Hemsky 2-3 year softening. Stauffer. Anyone else?

    The only one I’ve seen other than Treena,

  110. Lowetide says:

    Okay, just wanted to make sure. Stauffer is connected, so it’s a strong one.

  111. Woodguy says:

    Lowetide:
    Trying to keep up to date on this, so far I know of one member of the media who has talked about Hemsky 2-3 year softening. Stauffer. Anyone else?

    Rishaug was on Gregor’s show today.

    In regards to Hemsky he always talks like he has the goods, but always just stops short of saying “Listen, this is what Tambellini/Olcyk told me”

    He often gets frustrated arguing about Hemsky with Gregor, then speaks with an extra authoritative tone when making his point. I think he has the goods on this.

    He said Hemsky may go for 3 years, but doubts the Oilers offer a 3 year contract that Hemsky would sign.

  112. Woodguy says:

    Latest lines as per Jack Micheals twitter:

    94-89-14
    4-10-83
    55-20-Sideburns
    16-57-37

    5-58
    25-77
    44-6

    Not sure about taking Sideburns off of 83′s line.

    Obviously trying to power vs. power with 4-10-83

    Good to see 6 playing 3rd pairing.

    MacT would set the lines and pairings the same way when trying to win.

  113. Woodguy says:

    Just showed the playoff race standings.

    If the age that kids start understanding standings in the NHL and pays attention to them, then there are 13 year olds in Edmonton who have no clue what it feels like to look at the NHL standings and figure out what needs to fall right for their favorite team to make the playoffs.

    But Lowe still has his job.

    Go OIlers!

  114. Woodguy says:

    Pretty slick pass by Whitney.

    Hope he can get a bionic ankle.

  115. Lowetide says:

    Sideburns. Man.

  116. Woodguy says:

    WTF was Potter doing on that dump in?

    4th line and 3rd pairing on the ice = GA

  117. Gret99zky says:

    Doobie?

  118. jake70 says:

    WG, agreed, that whole sequence started with Potter playing spectator on the dump in. Ugly.

  119. Woodguy says:

    Oilers playing well in this game, except that shift, hope they keep it up.

  120. hockeyguy10 says:

    Weak play down low by 57 on that one

  121. jake70 says:

    If Hall converted half his break-aways…..

  122. VOR says:

    DSF,

    Interesting how you entirely miss Brad Richards highest paid player in hockey this year. Career high 28. Continue to believe that Datsyuk had scored thirty before his current contract. Also how you put Simon Gagne on this list even those his cap hit is $3.5 and for 47 goals. So let me keep it simple for you.

    If goals are all that matter as you claim, and only the best year counts why isn’t the top active single season goal scorer anywhere in your top forty. Maybe 76 goals don’t matter. That must be it. There is a special exemption for 76 goals not counting. And apparently some 47, 46, 43, 40 etc goal seasons don’t count eiither since none of those guys make it in on your list either. By the way, I think at least Zetterberg and Pomminville are missing from your second list.

    Still haven’t come close to proving your point that goals matter more than assists or points but full marks for trying.

  123. fuzzy muppet says:

    It’s gotta be the sideburns!

    Playing with 20-55???

    Do they want him to fail just as he starts getting confidence? WTF is wrong with this organization? They’ve seriously hindered his and Lander’s progress with the bumbling of their development. A wasted year….

  124. Lowetide says:

    Hall is ripping it tonight, playing really well. PP looks good so far too.

  125. Woodguy says:

    Hemsky is starting to come off the sideboards on the PP and shoot?

    AND NOW YOU ASSHOLES WANT TO TRADE HIM!!!????!?!

  126. spoiler says:

    Jesus he’s good like Jesus.

  127. Rebilled says:

    Clutch!

  128. Gret99zky says:

    Best backhand in the league. Ebs.

  129. Woodguy says:

    4 and 83 look ridiculously good together.

    5 more years of that please.

    Amazing how good the Oilers can be when they don’t play their terrible players (13,28, 35)

    Too bad they had to play 37 and 16 and 57 isn’t down on the farm.

  130. spoiler says:

    Woodguy:
    Hemsky is starting to come off the sideboards on the PP and shoot?

    AND NOW YOU ASSHOLES WANT TO TRADE HIM!!!????!?!

    He’s never exploited the pass, shoot or drive options well enough, but that was a very good sign. Exactly what he needs to do, because it will open up ice for him.

  131. hockeyguy10 says:

    Calgary is Columbus without Kippersoff

  132. Lowetide says:

    Eberle. Lordy.

  133. Woodguy says:

    Strongest period of hockey I’ve seen 6 play in a while too.

  134. DSF says:

    VOR:
    DSF,

    Interesting how you entirely miss Brad Richards highest paid player in hockey this year. Career high 28. Continue to believe that Datsyuk had scored thirty before his current contract. Also how you put Simon Gagne on this list even those his cap hit is $3.5 and for 47 goals. So let me keep it simple for you.

    If goals are all that matter as you claim, and only the best year counts why isn’t the top active single season goal scorer anywhere in your top forty. Maybe 76 goals don’t matter. That must be it. There is a special exemption for 76 goals not counting. And apparently some 47, 46, 43, 40 etc goal seasons don’t count eiither since none of those guys make it in on your list either. By the way, I think at least Zetterberg and Pomminville are missing from your second list.

    Still haven’t come close to proving your point that goals matter more than assists or points but full marks for trying.

    Keep trying VOR.

    I listed the top 40 players in the league based on cap hit.

    When those players scored a ton of goals in irrelevant…point is they DID score them.

    Now, go find a top 40 player, by cap hit, who hasn’t scored 25 goals.

    It’s a very short list.

  135. spoiler says:

    Oil looking like they want this one more, so far. 17 shots. Exactly what they needed to do in a first period after the last 3 games.

  136. godot10 says:

    Woodguy:
    Hemsky is starting to come off the sideboards on the PP and shoot?

    AND NOW YOU ASSHOLES WANT TO TRADE HIM!!!????!?!

    Took an eighteen year-old kid showing him up running a top five power play to make him change, when the best Hemsky could do even with Pronger was a middling one.

  137. Lowetide says:

    Dubnyk needs to stop everything from here to the finish line, but a win tonight would be linsanity.

  138. McSorely Head says:

    Anybody have a feed for this one? Thanks.

  139. Henry says:

    That kid’s hand eye coordination is off the charts. If Eberle was a ballplayer, he would be able to hit a Randy Johnson slider.

  140. stevezie says:

    It’s been a long, long time since I’ve watched a Calgary feed. Do they normally let the eleventh caller on 590′s drive time be the colour-commentator, or am I watching something special?

  141. spoiler says:

    Woodguy:
    4 and 83 look ridiculously good together.

    5 more years of that please.

    Amazing how good the Oilers can be when they don’t play their terrible players (13,28, 35)

    Too bad they had to play 37 and 16 and 57 isn’t down on the farm.

    Re-quoted for truth. 13 being benched removes at least 2 GA by himself.

    Wow these Sportsnet guys don’t get the whole Tampa, Avs, Detroit trade at all.

  142. Lowetide says:

    I like the line about “so-called” PP by the CAL color guy. I guess research doesn’t involve, you know, research.

  143. Woodguy says:

    godot10,

    83′s never been a great 5v4 player.

    5v5 always been his strength.

    Against tough comp.

    Last year he was 3rd in the NHL behind only Crosby and Sedin in 5v5 pts/60 , too bad it only lasted 22 games.

    I expect more of that from him in the future.

  144. Lowetide says:

    Ben Eager on the way to 12-14 minutes tonight. Showcase?

  145. pboy says:

    stevezie:
    It’s been a long, long time since I’ve watched a Calgary feed. Do they normally let the eleventh caller on 590′s drive time be the colour-commentator, or am I watching something special?

    Giggle

  146. Woodguy says:

    Lowetide:
    Ben Eager on the way to 12-14 minutes tonight. Showcase?

    Earned it.

    Best option too unfortunately.

    His positioning is as suspect as 28, but he can skate better.

  147. spoiler says:

    Jordan:
    spoiler,

    Christian Huselius is on the IR, has 0 points in 2 games this season.If he’s being offered for more, then Howson deserves to lose his job.

    I just hope he isn’t being offered to Tambi – we all know how much he likes to overpay for shiny objects…

    Shows how much attention I’ve given CBJ this year. That explains why I haven’t seen him on any trade lists either. Sheesh.

    **kicks self in shin just coz**

  148. godot10 says:

    Lowetide,

    Why would you trade Eager now? Canucks are full of punks. Colorado is a rough and tumble team. The battle of Alberta will always be that. And Minnesota is becoming more physical under Yeo.

    If you are keeping Hemsky and all of the other little guys, the Oilers need Eager to bridge the gap to the Pitlick’s and the Hamilton’s.

  149. Lucinius says:

    Every time I watch Kipper play it makes me astounded Flames’ fans ever talk about trading him (which they do EVERY year). He’s the only reason they can even think about playoffs since the lockout.

  150. Woodguy says:

    I think Kipprusoff is on Adderall.

  151. pboy says:

    This is almost like watching a real hockey team.

  152. Lucinius says:

    Bad Man!

  153. Rebilled says:

    Fuck Yes!

  154. fuzzy muppet says:

    Trade him!

    Hemmer with the ol’ changeup

  155. Smarmy says:

    Nice goal by Hemmer. I agree with whoever said Hall and Hemsky look great together tonight. If the Oilers had a goalie like Kipper they might be sniffing at the playoffs. I forgot what really good goaltending looks like.

  156. voxwah says:

    Sign Hemmer now and quit screwing around Tambo, you goof.

  157. spoiler says:

    When I used to watch the games up at MJ’s, our thing was you can’t beat Kipper unless you raise the puck. You must raise the puck. He’s just too gd good along the ice. And so Eberle gets stuffed down low, and immediately puts the backhand where momma keeps the ativan…

    Yeah, Baby! B.A. and Hanniballare the A-Team.

    Calgary PBP man fires up the excuses.

  158. Lucinius says:

    Wait.. we hurt a Flames player that mattered?

    Isn’t it supposed to be the opposite?

    Tonight’s game is surreal.

  159. VOR says:

    DSF,

    Love how you keep lowering the bar to try to win an argument you lost long, long ago. First, it was thirty now it is 25. You get the list of 25 goal scorers is very long and according to your argument they should all be in the top 40 since that it was it takes to be there, you just said. If that wasn’t what you said all your are doing is throwing out non-sequitors and specious arguments. Wait. that is your whole MO isn’t it.

    As for under 25 goal cap hits in the top forty cap hits in the league. It is actually astonishing long, Chara, Weber, shall I go on. Or do you not get that there are D-men and goalies in the league? Your list was top 40 forwards, well it isn’t because you butchered by not including a bunch of guys who belong there, but it is what you were trying to do. But in a few hours you have forgotten that. Truly astonishing short term memory problem.

    You just love to miss the point, still want to hear you admit that Crosby only scored 39 goals in his best goal scoring season before his last contract and that got him the second biggest cap hit of any forward. Come on admit it, you’re the psychic statistician you don’t have to look anything up because voices tell you everything you need to know. Ask your spirit guide If all goals count then why do 76 goal scorers get $4 M?

    Not to mention 47 goals got Gagne a $3,500,000 contract (though according to you he gets over $5M), 40 goals got Jason Blake $4M and 43 got Brad Boyes $4M. Don’t get me started on those poor undervalued 46 goal scorers.

    The original argument, unless you have forgotten, and well you may have, was do goals correlate better with salary and or cap hit than other statistics (ie. do they count more). You still haven’t even come close to proving that given you never have looked at anything but goals and thus couldn’t demonstrate their superior correlation no matter how many goal scorers you list since the point is are they better than other stats like points. You can list goals until the cows come home, totally irrelevant. By the way your new list correlates even worse re cash for goals than the last list.

    I get you are now saying to be in the top forty forwards you have to score 25 goals unless your name is Koivu. that doesn’t actually help you explain why 28 goals got Brad Richards a $6.6 cap hit and 76 goals gets $4,000,000. I am waiting for an explanation.

  160. Lowetide says:

    godot10:
    Lowetide,

    Why would you trade Eager now?Canucks are full of punks.Colorado is a rough and tumble team.The battle of Alberta will always be that.And Minnesota is becoming more physical under Yeo.

    If you are keeping Hemsky and all of the other little guys, the Oilers need Eager to bridge the gap to the Pitlick’s and the Hamilton’s.

    No, I’m just asking if he’s being showcased since he’s playing so much tonight. More a question than a statement.

  161. Kert says:

    Smart play by Eager.. He keeps surprising me.

  162. Smarmy says:

    Man Eager can really fly. He’s a bottom line player but that combination of speed, size, and a touch of insanity makes me hope he stays an Oiler.

  163. spoiler says:

    And cue Ben Eager. He does have a set of wheels though.

  164. Lucinius says:

    Belanger scored.. wow.

  165. Woodguy says:

    Need offense?

    Add Eager.

    He might get fat eating Jones’ lunch.

  166. pboy says:

    Fucking Eberle!!!!

  167. Kert says:

    Wtf is going on? Am I dreaming?

  168. Lucinius says:

    ….

    Thank god I bet on the Oilers tonight.

  169. fuzzy muppet says:

    Is it freaky Friday??

    Belanger?? A 4-1 lead/?!!!

    Mayans might be right after all

  170. Woodguy says:

    Boom Gagner!!

    Quick, hit Renney in the head with a puck again!

  171. spoiler says:

    Wow, they have their number for the moment.

    Eberle is another way of saying Einstein.

  172. Kert says:

    MPS just cut to the middle before the top of the circles. I must be dreaming.

  173. Lucinius says:

    Kipper has to be the goaltender I pity the most in the league.

    It’d be scary what he could do on a good team.

  174. LMHF#1 says:

    Thought Magnus had the dagger there. Beauty cut to the middle.

  175. voxwah says:

    This is fun to watch. Love seeing MPS charge to the middle like that for the shot. He’s looking much better. A little confidence goes a long way, for him and for Belanger as well.

  176. LMHF#1 says:

    Cough*tradeRyanJones*Cough

  177. godot10 says:

    Kert:
    MPS just cut to the middle before the top of the circles. I must be dreaming.

    Renney has been playing him on the wrong wing for a season and a half. Been playing Eager on the 4th line without puck movers. The list of Renney’s bad decisions is a long one.

  178. spoiler says:

    After 20 years of chasing Coke, maybe Eager is our Pepsi Machine? The Taste of a New Generation.

    Hands, feet, body, he’s really only missing one thing.

  179. DSF says:

    VOR,

    I know you’ve invested a lot of yourself in this effort to prove players with a high number of assists are just as valuable but they aren’t.

    Richards has a career high of 28 goals.

    Henrik Sedin has only scored 29 goals once but he has also had an 88 assist season.

    That’s likely the high watermark for playmakers.

    Hemsky’s best is 58 assists…7 years ago.

    Draw your own conclusions.

  180. pboy says:

    Here’s hoping that WG put at least 1 unit on this game.

    I’ve noticed a lot more “winger win” face-offs tonight. That’s something that good teams do well.

  181. spoiler says:

    Birthday Beautiful!!!

  182. Gret99zky says:

    If the 3rd period is just like the 2nd, I say fuck it, sign everyone.

  183. Lucinius says:

    Is it too early to start going “We want ten!”?

  184. fuzzy muppet says:

    WHAT A PASS. Gags is some kind of good…

  185. pboy says:

    Wow. Great intuition by Petry and then magic in the Flames end.

  186. LMHF#1 says:

    WOW! What a pass. And we’d just won 3 separate battles. Amazing.

  187. whale says:

    Get used to it flames.

  188. McSorely Head says:

    Are the Flames all hungover? They are really poor.

  189. spoiler says:

    Can’t have goal-scoring without play-making, and there’s no play without a goal. Passers and finishers need each other. That goal was the perfect example of that. The trick is to complement the two.

  190. LMHF#1 says:

    Watching them try to catch Hall and Hemsky is rather comical.

  191. Smarmy says:

    Hemsky doing an interview? How rare…

  192. wordbird says:

    You can’t stop Ralph Kreuger, you can only hope to contain him.

    Man we gotta start playing meaningful hockey games soon.

  193. hunter1909 says:

    Good old fashioned hockey, Flames surprise me tonight I find I like them, they’re like a table hockey game all the same player…

    Hemsky looks great in the slot, Gagner Pajaarvi look good and Hall made a great few plays, there’s a future 40 goal scorer.

    4th line oilers play similar style to the good players, haha

    Excellent, nay, outstanding Calgary broadcast…very old timey, and the arena even plays cool music(sic), doesn’t embarass everyone unlike Rexall Place’s dirge.

  194. SK Oiler Fan says:

    Just tuned in to see the wonderful Petry Gagner exchange. Are the Flamers that bad or is this that 1 game in 10 glimse into the future?

    Can’t we just fast forward to consistancy?

  195. Alice says:

    I had too much to dream last night.

  196. jake70 says:

    Might be tonite, maybe next year, who knows, but the Oilers are going to blow Calgary right out of Alberta some night.

  197. Woodguy says:

    How does that Zamboni miss Francis?

    Allan Watt’s man wouldn’t have missed.

  198. Lowetide says:

    The passing!! The passing!! Sweet lord the passing!

  199. sliderule says:

    Oilers have Ben playing a very aggressive 2:1:2 forecheck system.

    It will be interesting to see if they stick with it or go back to 1:2:2

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