Giant Linus

When Darryl Katz is sitting in the sun with his buddies, I wonder if he brags about “the system” or “the farm” or “that 2010 draft?” I wonder if the organization believes in Linus Omark at all? I wonder if the AHL rookies are adjusting to that very tough league? The numbers tell us some things.

Linus Omark is walking tall for the OKC Barons since coming back from injury. The supremely skilled winger is having his way with AHL opposition and the next stop must be Edmonton. Aside from Omark, who are the forwards we might see in Edmonton after the deadline? Which of the F’s have shown well at even strength, or displayed some ability on the PP? PK? Well, there is some sunshine in Oklahoma City, but the AHL rookies are off the pace.

POWERPLAY (prospects of interest)

  1. Josh Green 26, 2-8-10 .385
  2. Linus Omark 10, 1-2-3 .300
  3. Gilbert Brule 27, 5-3-8 .296
  4. Magnus Paajarvi 14, 0-4-4 .286
  5. Ryan Keller 48, 3-10-13 .271
  6. Phil Cornet 41, 9-2-11 .268
  7. Teemu Hartikainen 36, 4-3-7 .194
  8. Mark Arcobello 48, 2-4-6 .125
  9. Lennart Petrell 9, 0-1-1 .111
  10. Tyler Pitlick 37, 2-2-4 .108
  11. Curtis Hamilton 39, 1-3-4 .103
  12. Chris VandeVelde 49, 1-1-2 .040
  13. Antti Tyrvainen 29, 0-1-1 .034
  14. Hunter Tremblay 49, 0-1-1 .020

Leading point totals from Keller, Cornet and Green.  Brule is gone and Paajarvi is in the NHL. Green is having a nice season, earning his callup to the NHL earlier this season. Omark is silly good and should be in the NHL right now (but isn’t). Cornet is scoring at a rapid clip with the man advantage. Hartikainen’s number is actually a little better than last season (66, 7-3-10) and that’s about all there is to say about the OKC powerplay.

PENALTY KILL

  1. Hunter Tremblay 49, 4-2-6
  2. Ryan O’Marra 40, 1-2-3
  3. Chris VandeVelde 49, 1-1-2

Tremblay’s a freak, that’s a wonky total. O’Marra was a big part of the PK, I imagine House is also in on the action. I have no idea if he could ever sustain this kind of run, imagine even the good ones have long stretches where nothing goes in.

EVEN STRENGTH

  1. Linus Omark 10, 3-6-9 .900
  2. Ryan Keller 48, 13-12-25 .521
  3. Josh Green 26, 7-6-13 .500
  4. Mark Arcobello 48, 7-15-22 .458
  5. Phil Cornet 41, 12-6-18 .439
  6. Magnus Paajarvi 14, 1-5-6 .429
  7. Triston Grant 28, 8-4-12 .429
  8. Teemu Hartikainen 36, 7-8-15 .417
  9. Gilbert Brule 27, 3-7-10 .370
  10. Ryan O’Marra 40, 7-7-14 .350
  11. Lennart Petrell 9, 2-1-3 .333
  12. Hunter Tremblay 49, 8-8-16 .327
  13. Antti Tyrvainen 29, 2-6-8 .276
  14. Tanner House 45, 4-9-13 .265
  15. Milan Kytnar 13, 1-2-3 .231
  16. Chris VandeVelde 49, 2-8-10 .204
  17. Tyler Pitlick 37, 3-4-7 .189
  18. Curtis Hamilton 39, 4-3-7 .179

Omark of course leads the way here, it is absolutely brutal that he’s wasting away in OKC. He is followed by AHL veterans along with prospects Cornet, Paajarvi and Hartikainen. After that, I don’t think you can reasonably argue that any of the kids has shown enough to be considered a strong arrow this season. You’d like to see a strong finish for Pitlick and Hamilton, and there is time. Hartikainen was 66, 10-22-32 (.500) one year ago, so he’s off the pace a little this year. Hunter Tremblay is an interesting player.

I thought it might be an idea to tack on some AHL F EV numbers from seasons past, just for giggles. Kyle Brodziak is probably the best player in the group, I’ve placed all players over 200 NHL games in bold.

07-08 EVS
  1. Liam Reddox 51gp, 11-14-25 .490
  2. Rob Schremp 65gp, 8-20-28 .431
  3. Marc Pouliot 50gp, 11-10-21 .420
  4. Tyler Spurgeon 12gp, 1-4-5 .417
  5. JF Jacques 37gp, 5-9-14 .378
  6. Stephane Goulet 27gp, 6-3-9 .333
  7. Ryan O’Marra 29gp, 2-5-7 .241
  8. Slava Trukhno 51gp, 3-9-12 .235
  9. Troy Bodie 53gp, 7-5-12 .226
  10. Colin McDonald 63gp, 7-7-14 .222

 

06-07 EVS

  1. JF Jacques 29gp, 6-12-18 .621
  2. Kyle Brodziak 62gp, 18-20-38 .559
  3. Robert Nilsson 69gp, 10-27-37 .536
  4. Alexei Mikhnov 27gp, 3-10-13 .481
  5. Marc Pouliot 33gp, 7-7-14 .424
  6. Tyler Spurgeon 34gp, 4-10-14 .412
  7. Rob Schremp 69gp, 8-17-25 .362
  8. Zack Stortini 47gp, 6-4-10 .213

05-06 EVs

  1. Brad Winchester 40gp, 10-8-18 .450
  2. Kyle Brodziak 55gp, 9-11-20 .363
  3. JF Jacques 65gp, 11-11-22 .338
  4. Marc Pouliot 65gp 9-12-21 .323
  5. Zack Stortini 64gp, 2-8-10 .156

 

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65 Responses to "Giant Linus"

  1. lazerguidedmelody says:

    Should we be worried that Hartikainen isn’t kicking out the jams? I like him as a player, a nice mix of offensive grit and skill, but it’s never a great sign when AHL numbers don’t display year-on-year growth for this type of player… hopefully just an injury hangover.

  2. jake70 says:

    93 sticking and 94 making his way back to Edmonton forced things a bit sideways on the active roster this season. The Oilers were a bit boxed in me thinks, although arguably good problems to have. Omark was the casualty with the 2-way contract. Too many 1-way contracts …uggh.

    So where would Omark slot in (assuming Hemksy and RNH on the active roster)? He MUST be kept away from Belanger.

  3. Lowetide says:

    I’d bet on him 10 times out of 10 except Renney is doing some weird things with Paajarvi and that may be the direction we’re heading with Hartikainen. Lennart Petrell is getting the Deliverance treatment nightly but stays in EDM, so the roster decisions this year don’t reflect actual talent imo.

  4. Traktor says:

    Captain Obvious:
    Traktor,

    It is indicative of what you know about hockey players that you think my idea is a bad one and yours is a good one.

    I agree.

    Sekera is a very good hockey player.A pick in the 11-15 range has a small chance (certainly less than half) to ever be as good as Sekera.I’d do that trade a 100 times out of 100.In fact, when I first suggested the trade I was criticized for it being unrealistic, i.e. it was too good a trade for the Oilers to ever happen.That’s a fair thought.

    There is a small chance that a player drafted in the 11-15 range will end up as good as Ben Eager or Cam Barker. That doesn’t mean you trade a top 15 pick for them. That would be incredibly stupid. Sekera is a run-of-the-mill defensemen and trading a top 15 pick for him would be incredibly stupid.

    Your view, on the other hand, is on the other side of reason.

    Basically your evaluation of every single element of these trades is so far off the mark that rational words cannot touch them.You are through the looking glass in world in which words have no meaning.

    Saying this doesn’t make your argument any better or mine any less true. It just shows that you are weak.

  5. neojanus says:

    Yeah, there have been some peculiar decisions, methinks.

    Here is what I think I’d do at this point. I think we must accept the fact that Hemsky is outta here and hopefully the OIlers get the best return possible.

    I look to the Oilers to bring up Omark as a replacement for the remainder of the season.

    We commit RNH, Hall, Eberle to the future. We also look to Gagner and Omark as desirable (though ultimately expendable assets). We have most of two top lines there.

    At this point, I begin to treat Paajarvi as an offensive third-line forward and force more defensive responsibilities on the guy. The Oilers could put together a solid third line, with some offensive upside.

    The 4th line contains players like Eager (who is much improved lately), Jones, etc.

    This gives one hell of an energy-line; two terrific scoring lines; and a third line that can lay down some hurt.

    Ride the youth together as much possible, but stick to the basic lines so that the players learn the role completely.

    We have half a D… we need another top 1-3. We will never have an elite D in the league, but we should be able to have a more than proficient one.

    Dubnyk is not the guy. He can share the role with someone else (not Bernier). I aim for Bishop and Bunz as the tandem of the future eventually.

    This team doesn’t compete next year (or maybe scrapes into the playoffs), but the year after should be able to feel comfortable enough in their roles to play a system that other teams have a hard time countering. The young’ns will be stronger, smarter, faster, and their roles will be consistent.

    Not to use Omark for the last few weeks of hockey would be a horrendous mistake.

  6. Lowetide says:

    What the hell, people?

  7. Matt.N says:

    I would imagine Omark already has a seat booked to join the big club on Feb28th.

    I would be interested to see him and RNH together on a line with Eagar that gets sheltered as much as possible. That leaves 89-4-14 together with 10-94-x taking all the d zone draws.

  8. knighttown says:

    I’ve been on record supporting Oilers management with respect to the handling of Omark and Paajarvi this season and basically dismissing the “sideburns” opinions. Omark was just ridiculously unlucky with respect to timing. Sit out–>winning streak–>demotion for ice time–>Omark injury–>Oiler forward injury–>recall of Josh Green–>Oilers get healthy–>Omark gets healthy.

    Saying that, that terrible luck alone is enough that he should be called up within 7 days. I would have been communicating with the player after every recall…”Linus, this would have been you if you were healthy. Get healthy, come back and two weeks of conditioning and be ready for your time.”

    Again, just from a position of fairness, Lander and Omark should swap. “Anton, we want to see you go down there are produce as it’s been awhile since you played in that role.”

    Assuming this happens…what to do with the lineup? You put him with Petrell and Eager for 7 minutes a night are you any further ahead? Renney likely won’t split up the kids. You could give him Magnus’ job but I think that’s just replacing one problem (no one for Omark to play with) with another problem (no one for Magnus to play with).

    You know, I think I’d create a 4th line of Omark/Nugent-Hopkins/Paajarvi and shelter them like any other 4th line while finding them mucho PP time. The next obvious move is to put 94 with 10 and 83 but I think I’d actually move Eager there instead.

    4-89-14
    55-10-83
    94-20-28
    91-93-23

    PP
    4-89-14-93-6
    23-10-83-94-77/58

    PK
    28-20
    94-10
    91-14** (now’s the time to try it)

  9. knighttown says:

    Schitzo says:
    February 18, 2012 at 2:06 am

    I’m late to the conversation, but quality of competition is derived directly from on-ice/off-ice plus-minus (+-Rel).

    Basically, +-Rel normalizes for team performance – if Smyth ends up -2 on a team that’s -40, it’s pretty obvious that he’s not the problem. So you take the team’s goals allowed while he’s on the ice and subtract the goals allowed when he’s on the bench (normalized over 60 minutes, to account for the fact that a player is on the bench at least twice as much as on the ice).

    So every player gets a number for +-Rel. If you want to determine quality of competition (QoC), just take that number for the five players on the other team and average them together. Likewise, if you want to determine quality of teammates (QoT) just average the +-Rel for the other four guys on your team on the ice.

    The result is that if you play against the Sedin line, your QoC will be ridiculous. And if you’re lucky enough to be Alex Burrows, your QoT should be through the roof.

    Where QoC breaks down is the traditional checking line – I looked at this in 2007 when the Ducks were running Moen-Pahlsson-R. Nied together as their shutdown line. These guys had a disgustingly poor QoT because even though they prevented a lot of goals and let the other lines run wild, they could not score to save their lives. The result was that they were getting beat up in +-Rel, despite the fact that the result likely would have been worse with any other line on the ice. Add up those numbers and we’re talking all three being in the bottom ten for QoT league-wide.
    From the other team’s perspective, QoC would tell you that playing Pahlsson’s line must be butter-soft minutes, because the +-Rel was negative for each player. I doubt there’s a forward in the league who would agree with that statement in reality.

    My conclusion at the time was that QoC works in the context of power versus power, but breaks down when you look at teams who run dedicated checking lines. I haven’t seen much to change my mind since then.

    So to summarize, QoC assumes that players who outscore their opponents are the most skilled, and those who get outscored are less talented. It doesn’t take context into account, and as we’ve seen from anyone from Comrie to Nilsson to Lupul, scoring goals is only part of the story. Context matters.

    Terrific post Schitzo. Something smelled off to me and this captures it exactly. The reason the QC is so noticeable for me is that the Oilers are a team that still employs a checking line. Facing 10/94/20/5/77 is no walk in the park for Ryan Getzlaf but I betcha Cam Fowler enjoys that night much more than a night against 4/89/14/6/58. So if Getzlaf gets nicked as playing the softs because Horc’s group has a low QualComp then Getzy’s QualComp is artificially low and so on and so on.

    In fairness, someone did warn me that there is only one Pahlssen (or Horcoff/Belnager) so the point there would be that as checking-only lines go the way of the dodo, the QC number starts to make more sense.

    Most teams now “hard match” defensive pairings. How many are employing checking lines these days?

  10. Spartacus says:

    As a fan who follows the goings-on in the Oilers organization fairly closely, it’s hard not to feel that Omark has been somewhat mishandled and even treated unfairly by the organization. And if I think he’s been handled poorly, you gotta wonder what Omark thinks.

    It’s weird that Renney refuses to demote Lander, too. I think Paajarvi has earned his demotions to the AHL, and should probably play there the rest of the year. Maybe during Paajarvi’s practice time, they can erect foam barriers at the goal line on either side of the net so that he can’t skate behind the net at all.

    Magnus’ play has improved, but last night was the same type of perimeter shots and timid play we’re used to seeing from him. What’s he so scared of? Drive to the frickin’ net! Crash into the goalie or the post! Being injured is better than being a healthy scratch, right? Right? Okay, maybe not.

    Giant Linus rhymes with pliant penis. No point there, I just like to rhyme.

  11. Woodguy says:

    KT,

    Assuming 83 is gone and nothing in terms of NHL quality forward is coming back, where do you see them slotted next year?

    I see something like:

    14-93-91
    4-89-23
    94-10-28
    55-20-57

    I can see them moving 89 for a D man and going with:

    14-93-91
    4-10-23
    94-20-28
    55-57-56

    Shelter line 1 with lots of Ozone starts, line 2 will get 1st pairng D thrown at them
    Line 3 will get thrown at the best of the other team
    Line 4 will be line 4.

    10 is really out of place on line 2 these day.

    Last night 91-10-83 got nothing going 0-3=-3 for scoring changes.

    83 shares the blame on that, its games like that make me understand (somewhat) why some fans want to drive him to the airport.

    Maybe the draft the big Russian and put him at 2C?

    Anyway you slice it, there’s a lot of players needing shelter and not enough shelter to go around.

  12. Bar_Qu says:

    Couple of thoughts:

    Omark > Petrell (on both ends of ice), likely Omark > Lander, but that will never happen. Put Omark on with Eager and Lander and watch some crazy stuff happen. Omark hounds the puck in the corners and with his puck-on-a-string act he could open up some room for Eager to bury some great passes. Lander can off-set the cheating for offense and all of a sudden you have a brilliant 4th line. Give Jones and Belanger poor ol’ Magnus as a three line, and then let Smyth-Hemsky play with Horcoff to show the offense. Which leaves 14-89-4 to do what they want at home anyways. I probably missed someone in there.

    Secondly, Traktor, dude, you have some sustain in order to be able to still argue a point 24 hours later. Wow. That’s why I don’t argue with you anymore (that and you make a lot of sense on anything except a topic which shall remain unnamed).

    Happy Saturday all.

  13. Woodguy says:

    knighttown,

    Most teams now “hard match” defensive pairings. How many are employing checking lines these days?

    I’d say it depends on their players.

    If you have the horses to go PvP, then you do it.

    The Oilers do not, and therefore send out the checkers.

    It also depends how the coach handles the Ozone starts. Vigneualt sends out the Pisscutters for all the Ozone and Maholtra for all the Dzone, then lets the other coach try to match past that. Given that he can run 3 (and even 4) pretty good lines, he’s knows he’s getting a match up he wants somewhere.

    I think that’s why there is such a huge disparity between the Oilers home and road record.

    Their scoring line needs shelter so unless they get it, they get killed.

  14. Lowetide says:

    Next year, I’d go:

    RNH-Smyth-Eberle
    Gagner-Hall-Omark
    Belanger-Paajarvi-Jones
    Horcoff-Eager-Hartikainen

    Something like that. Lander to OKC.

  15. Ducey says:

    Lowetide:
    What the hell, people?

    Is this because Traktor is still carrying on an argument from 2 days ago, or because 2 of the posters above managed to work “me thinks” into their posts?

    Sending down Omark earlier might have been wonky but I think they are right to give him a bunch of games on the farm. He has only had three and he was off for a long time. A recall coinciding with a Hemsky trade should be about right.

    Speaking of Hemsky, if they could trade him for a young D (lets call him Schenn) and add Grigorenko, I would be pretty happy.

    I am still confused why they don’t demote Lander. He will likely be good in a year or two but he is being given little opportunity here. Why not let him work on the PP and top lines in OKC?

  16. DBO says:

    If Hemsky is gone, and it seems inevitable now due his desire for a long term deal, then I wonder who we draft. I actually expect us to get the 3 or 4 pick due to a late season run. I wonder if they consider the Swede Forsberg. No need to add to comrade Horcov’s army.

    Hall.Gagner.Eberle
    Smyth .Nuge.Forsberg
    MPS.Horcoff.Omark
    Eager.Belanger.Jones

    I expect they’ll run Lander instead of Omark. I’d really like to see the all Swede line to finish the year.

  17. Woodguy says:

    Lowetide:
    Next year, I’d go:

    RNH-Smyth-Eberle
    Gagner-Hall-Omark
    Belanger-Paajarvi-Jones
    Horcoff-Eager-Hartikainen

    Something like that. Lander to OKC.

    Can old man Smyth handle those minutes?

    He’s really faded this year.

    He’s also be given tougher assignments in the 2nd half.

  18. Lowetide says:

    Hopefully Hall can take on the more difficult mountain climbing, and Paajarvi’s zone starts this season are no easy minutes. I think Smyth has been brilliant this season. Seriously.

  19. hunter1909 says:

    A totally doable 25 games remain in the this current segment of longest training camp ever held, meaning the 2006-17 Edmonton oilers.

    Katz and his mafia are preparing a team to dominate once the new arena is up and running. They don’t care if the team blows, so long as they keep stockpiling fantastic prospects and this year a 2nd place pick is on the cards.

    Meanwhile, the farm is being stocked and the Barons I believe are in 1st place in the AHL or close to it. The pluggers and grinders are all being developed down there, while the super-talent forwards develop in the NHL.

    Expect next season to be more of the same, with another marquee talent added to the opening night roster – and no doubt IR list at some point in the season. If these oilers aren’t Darwinian, then someone please explain why.

    PS: Pajaarvi looks really good out there. Too bad Horcoff and his stinking contract means Hemsky is run out of town.

  20. DSF says:

    If Hemsky is gone, which is a reasonable assumption at this point, it is not impossible to add a player through a subsequent trade or free agency to handle tough second line minutes.

    While there is much gnashing of teeth around the Sphere, time might be better spent looking at players Tambellini might target for that role (whether or not he is actually does is another matter entirely).

    For example, Gillis was able to acquire both David Booth and Chris Higgins without touching his core.

    Booth was acquired for broken down versions of Samuelsson and Strum, while Higgins was acquired for a mid level defensive prospect (Evan Oberg) and a third round pick.

    Both players were under performing previously but have done well on Vancouver’s second line…in fact both are outperforming Hemsky despite suffering in season injuries (Booth knee) (Higgins staph infection).

    LT has been imploring the Oilers to find AHL defensemen stuck in their organizations and that’s not a bad strategy but there are also NHL players who are blocked or under performing in their organizations who can step into a different situation and thrive.

    Perhaps they won’t find a player with Hemsky’s ceiling but it shouldn’t be all that difficult to find a player to play the toughs and at least match the actual production Hemsky has provided over the past three seasons.

  21. Lowetide says:

    DSF: Well, Gillis has a good track record. If Gillis were the Oilers GM we’d be talking about the good things that will happen over the summer.

  22. rickithebear says:

    Post Deadline:
    55-93-14
    4-89-94
    91-10-23
    57-20-28

    Before scoffing at 55.
    Hall – 10 EVG – 14:34 EVTOI – Career 12.3% playing 2nd line.
    Eager – 7 EVG T- 8:05 EVTOI – Career 12.5%% playing 3rd/4th
    Eager has better speed than Smyth. His upright left side zone penetration is a poorer version of Hall. it can create space for 93-14. I like his physical presence on that line.
    It Allows for 4-89 pairing the base for a strong line
    91-23 were .875 PPG together at the end of last season.
    top 3 lines good even structure.
    55, 4 , 91 speed forwards with zone penetration
    93, 89, 23 set-up Forwards
    14 ev scoring forward, 94, 10 toughs ev prescence.

  23. DSF says:

    Lowetide:
    DSF: Well, Gillis has a good track record. If Gillis were the Oilers GM we’d be talking about the good things that will happen over the summer.

    Well, those players are out there…if the alternatives are a question mark in Omark or a player who has proven he can play tough opposition and put up some points, I think it’s pretty much a no brainer.

    If the only other alternative is signing Hemsky to what could be a crippling contract, I would take the return for Hemsky and go out and find a player (or two) who can fill that role.

  24. Semenko and Troy says:

    Having both Gagner and Hemsky in a top 6 next year, given our lottery pick status again this year fits Einstein’s definition of insanity, “doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results”.

    Given that those two are our most tradeable assets with value, turn them into something positive for our defence. Hemsky of course should be moved before the trade deadline, but Gagner can wait until the draft. Even with Hemsky and Gagner gone, our skill up front will not be the problem.

    We have enough depth at forward to compensate, providing we stay at #29. Give MPS and Omark a shot at the top six next year. Find a spot for Hartikainen. Draft the big Russian.

    PRV-RNH-Eberle
    Hall-Grigorenko-Omark
    Smyth-Horcoff-Jones
    Eager-Lander-Hartikainen

    Hemsky plus for Ellis, or Gagner to Chicago for Leddy? We need offence from our back end.

  25. lazerguidedmelody says:

    Semenko and Troy,

    Trading Gagner is exactly the type of deal the Oilers have done over and over again – showing a player the exit door before we know how good he’s really going to be.

  26. Woodguy says:

    Lowetide:
    Next year, I’d go:

    RNH-Smyth-Eberle
    Gagner-Hall-Omark
    Belanger-Paajarvi-Jones
    Horcoff-Eager-Hartikainen

    Something like that. Lander to OKC.

    Did everyone (DSF, Traktor especially) notice that LT put Horcov on the 4th line?

    The worm has turned.

  27. Woodguy says:

    Semenko and Troy,

    Having both Gagner and Hemsky in a top 6 next year, given our lottery pick status again this year fits Einstein’s definition of insanity, “doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results”.

    That would mean that Gagner and Hemsky are most responsible for the lottery status. You need to prove that assertation.

    Why do people always point at the best players, and not the terrible players when teams are bad?

    Hemsky plus for Ellis
    Ellis isn’t moving for Hemsky+

    Gagner to Chicago for Leddy?

    While Gagner seems to be getting traded for a Dman everyday, Leddy is shooting very low.

  28. DSF says:

    Woodguy: Did everyone (DSF, Traktor especially) notice that LT put Horcov on the 4th line?

    The worm has turned.

    That worm (Horcoff) turned years ago. It just took some longer to recognize it.

    That third line is really scary.

    42 points total.

  29. Ribs says:

    Yep. Better put Horcoff in there. Hehe.

  30. cabbiesmacker says:

    Is the proper pronunciation of the name not LAYnus? If so then it rhymes with how he’s been treated maybe. That said I think he’s more a trade-bait option than a keeper if Gagner hangs around. I think he needs to play top 6, and Gagner, Omark, RNH + Eberle is a tad on the small and soft side I think.

    Does Peckham + Omark + Hemsky’s contract bring a half decent return on RW? Add this years first and get a bona fide RW?

    Partial to a bottom 6 that sets at:

    Smyth – Horcoff – Hartikainen
    Eager – Belanger – Jones

    Another point I haven’t seen discussed to any length is what the EV contract for an assumed 2- 3 overall will run for $$. Doubtful a D pick is ready for the 2012 roster so what would a Grigorenko pick earn if he were to start? ( qualifier – I don’t think Lowe has the sack to draft a Russian)

  31. DSF says:

    Drew Stafford seems to be the definition of the kind of player I was earlier suggesting Tambellini should pursue to replace Hemsky.

    Under performing on a dysfunctional Sabres team, hooting percentage this season is half his average,
    27 years old, signed for another 3 years @ $4m, 6’2″, 214 lbs, and, of course, the local connection.

    I’d move Gagner and a defensive prospect to get that done and try and get a real NHL defenseman for Hemsky +.

  32. rickithebear says:

    LAZERGUIDEDMELODY:

    What we know about gagner is he was ahead of hemsky’s production up to age 21. hemsky’s 22 year old season was his 77PTs in 82GM .94 PPG. Gagner is on pace for 56Pts in 77Gm a .68PPG pace. Gagner looks to be increasing production. hemsky was down hill after his 22YR season.

    Moving gagner is insanity.

  33. godot10 says:

    Paajarvi needs work from the face-off circle in, but he doesn’t give up much, and he can get the puck up the ice like a top six forward.

    Crazy to give up on a player who just lacks finishing skills because he grew up playing defence.

    There is an above average NHL player here that just needs a bit of work.

  34. Denniss says:

    I read comments like “Assuming 83 is gone and nothing in terms of NHL quality forward is coming back” and nod by head and know I don’t feel like looking at anyone’s line combos or throwing out a suggestion of my own.

    The decision making on 57 this year has been stupeying and you get the feeling 56 is fucked as long as Renney’s coaching. 23′s the man to make everyone forget about 83; just as long as a coach has patience with him.

    This year has been about sheltering the kids at home and getting our brains beaten in on the road. DD’s regressed so netminding’ s a huge concern and the Sutton signing points to the Oilers going down with the “6 playing top four min” ship.

  35. cabbiesmacker says:

    godot10:
    Paajarvi needs work from the face-off circle in, but he doesn’t give up much, and he can get the puck up the ice like a top six forward.

    Crazy to give up on a player who just lacks finishing skills because he grew up playing defence.

    There is an above average NHL player here that just needs a bit of work.

    I haven’t given up on him…completely…but maybe he could watch this clip of IMO the best player in the NHL getting it done.

    http://video.nhl.com/videocenter/console?catid=35&id=158559

  36. OilClog says:

    After seeing the Hal Gill trade it’s clear we won’t be adding anything to the backend until the draft, if Gags is traded for a top D, hopefully it’s an established top D, and not a could be player. We have enough could be’s that the coaching staff doesn’t know what to do with. Who would take Barker in the line-up over peckham? especially when it’s clear we’re not getting anywhere near the playoffs and Barker is already out the door.. Theo sure is getting that valuable exp in the press box.

    This team could literally have to kid lines

    4/93/14 1st Hall is 1st line no exceptions.
    91/89/23 2a We’d have to have a new coach for this to ever happen. Fact.
    55/20/83 2b before I get ripped for Hemsky’s placing.. he could be on any line.
    94/10/28 2c I’d prefer 10 be retired.

    With this group of forwards, any coaching staff should be able to slap together combinations that will fit the situation at hand. There is no real 4th line here, many interchangable pieces. Can’t help but to feel if Eager was put into the right offensive situation with say 89/83 that line would be very hard to handle. Where would this team be if say that coach in pitts with his systematic play stand? Love the way that guy coaches, he can take anyone and put them anywhere as they all know the system they’re playing. Watching our lovely Oilers play.. it’s fun and exciting at moments, but I have a large dent in the wall beside my recliner from banging my head.. why do they never know what to do?!?! always out of position, horrible support system, no communication. If all the Oilers want in a coach is a guy to stand behind the bench and tell them to go out there and do whatever.. where do I sign up?

  37. OilClog says:

    cabbiesmacker,

    Toews is not the person MPS needs to watch, Toews IMO if top 10 in the world, that’s it. Malkin doesn’t allow 9 game losing streaks to happen.

    If MPS needs to watch breaks to the net, he can look at his own team, Hall, Ebs, Eager, Hemsky all rush to the net with great outside speed. If MPS is turning into a Center then watching Toews would be a good choice, maybe Horcoff could watch some film.

  38. Smarmy says:

    Winning the cup is pretty hard (and lucky) in a 30 team league, but challenging for a 1st overall three years in a row is pretty special too. I mean even a team like the Oilers who lack talent and are completely flawed have to hold back talent and miscast players to make it happen.

    This management has losing down to an art-form.

  39. spoiler says:

    Bit of a surprise… Despite all the rumours that Kubina was heading to Detroit, sounds like Philly has nabbed him–per CBC.

  40. fuzzy muppet says:

    I’m not against the Sutton signing, but it seems to me they could have gotten a real nice asset(s) as the trade deadline approaches. His value, now that Kubina and Gill are off the market, would be sky high.

    It’s these constant little mismanagements that worry me about those in charge. You could have just resigned him in the off-season.

  41. Lowetide says:

    I know it’s bad form but hopefully they trade him anyway. One thing these trades tell us: a 2nd rd pick in 2012 isnt as valuable as most years THIS is a poor draft year

  42. spoiler says:

    Lowetide:
    I know it’s bad form but hopefully they trade him anyway. One thing these trades tell us: a 2nd rd pick in 2012 isnt as valuable as most years THIS is a poor draft year

    Yeah, I’d bet that would build on the Oilers already sparkling reputation with players and agents.

    But you’re right about this draft looking ugly. Woodlief’s latest should be out tomorrow and I don’t expect it to be glowing.

  43. VOR says:

    I was wondering how easy it would be to replace Hemsky’s “tough minutes”? I think I found one possible candidate. In the entire NHL.

    First requirement, you need to be playing tough minutest all ready.

    Only 12 right wingers show up in the top thirty in all three of the toughest competition measurements (QofC +/-, corsi rel QofC, corsi QofC):

    Patrick Dwyer
    Jarome Iginla
    Martin Erat
    Ales Hemsky
    Kris Versteeg
    Dustin Brown
    Correy Perry
    Rick Nash
    Nick Johnson
    Radim Vrabta
    Michael Ryder
    Johan Franzen

    (and by the way I’d argue that that is also the order of difficulty of the minutes they play).

    You’ve got to be close to this year’s Hemsky in offence. That lets out Dwyer

    You can’t need to be sheltered against the toughs. Some heavy lifters have major O-Zone starts to help.

    Only Dwyer, Johnson, Erat, Hemsky, Perry and Ryder have less than 50% O-zone starts.

    So only Erat, Perry, and Ryder can do the heavy lifting Hemsky does and out score him. Johnson can hold his own offence wise.

    You also need to be able to do the job with the same crappy help Hemsky has.

    Ryder and Perry do it with far better help, Erat and Hemsky are about equal, Dwyer gets enormous help, and poor Nick Johnson gets nada in the way of help. It is hard to imagine anybody else in the NHL playing harder minutes at any position in terms of tough opponent and terrible teammates.

    If there is a guy who might be available, and might be cheap, and could possibly grow into the role of the 2RW the Oilers need Johnson is the guy. He is also big, fast and pushes the puck in the right direction.So replacing Hemsky the 2RW is theoretically possible. Not likely because of how tough his minutes really are and how little help we can give but it is possible.. Sadly, Johnson comes from Calgary. But he played for the St.Alberta Saints.

  44. spoiler says:

    fuzzy muppet:
    You could have just resigned him in the off-season.

    I don’t believe there’s any way to be certain of this. He may have offered his services for a discount closer to his family.

  45. Smarmy says:

    Man this full of fellatio of the Canucks by CBC is harshing my glow over the Leafs getting pounded on.

    Although I did learn that Luongo just need to come out of his net more and he became the greatest goalie in the history of the sport.

  46. Smarmy says:

    Lowetide:
    I know it’s bad form but hopefully they trade him anyway. One thing these trades tell us: a 2nd rd pick in 2012 isnt as valuable as most years THIS is a poor draft year

    I think this draft is a defensemen draft. The Oilers get Yakupov/Grigorenko and get another couple picks in the top 45 they could end up with a defensemen or two that are better then what they currently have on the prospect sheet.

  47. DSF says:

    VOR:
    I was wondering how easy it would be to replace Hemsky’s “tough minutes”? I think I found one possible candidate. In the entire NHL.

    First requirement, you need to be playing tough minutest all ready.

    Only 12 right wingers show up in the top thirty in all three of the toughest competition measurements (QofC +/-, corsi rel QofC, corsi QofC):

    Patrick Dwyer
    Jarome Iginla
    Martin Erat
    Ales Hemsky
    Kris Versteeg
    Dustin Brown
    Correy Perry
    Rick Nash
    Nick Johnson
    Radim Vrabta
    Michael Ryder
    Johan Franzen

    (and by the way I’d argue that that is also the order of difficulty of the minutes they play).

    You’ve got to be close to this year’s Hemsky in offence. That lets out Dwyer

    You can’t need to be sheltered against the toughs. Some heavy lifters have major O-Zone starts to help.

    Only Dwyer, Johnson, Erat, Hemsky, Perry and Ryder have less than 50% O-zone starts.

    So only Erat, Perry, and Ryder can do the heavy lifting Hemsky does and out score him. Johnson can hold his own offence wise.

    You also need to be able to do the job with the same crappy help Hemsky has.

    Ryder and Perry do it with far better help, Erat and Hemsky are about equal, Dwyer gets enormous help, and poor Nick Johnson gets nada in the way of help. It is hard to imagine anybody else in the NHL playing harder minutes at any position in terms of tough opponent and terrible teammates.

    If there is a guy who might be available, and might be cheap, and could possibly grow into the role of the 2RW the Oilers need Johnson is the guy. He is also big, fast and pushes the puck in the right direction.So replacing Hemsky the 2RW is theoretically possible. Not likely because of how tough his minutes really are and how little help we can give but it is possible.. Sadly, Johnson comes from Calgary. But he played for the St.Alberta Saints.

    Your premise is fatally flawed.

    Just because a player isn’t currently playing “tough minutes” doesn’t mean he can’t.

  48. DSF says:

    Not to mention that Hemsky is getting killed playing “tough competition”.

    GFON/60 – 1.74 (271st in the league…tied with Dustin Penner)
    GAON/60 – 2.80

  49. commonfan14 says:

    Lowetide:
    I know it’s bad form but hopefully they trade him anyway. One thing these trades tell us: a 2nd rd pick in 2012 isnt as valuable as most years THIS is a poor draft year

    It figures that Tambo would be stupid enough to take a 2nd rounder in this year’s draft for Cogs instead of deferring it to next year. What a moron.

    Oh, wait…

  50. Wolfie says:

    I believe Dubnyk’s regression this year has mostly to do with confidence. The worst scenario has played itself out for the Oilers goalie this season.

    He should have gone into the season as the #1 guy. With all the uncertainty around Khabibulin and Dubnyk’s strong finish last year he had pushed himself into a spot to take over the starting gig. He gets the opening night start and plays a solid game in a 2-1 SOW over the Penguins. That performance should have been rewarded with the next start but Renney decides to give Khabibulin the start vs the Wild on the road. Khabi also plays well in the SOL. At this point I understand the coach wanting to get both guys into action early in the year. Both played very well in each of their starts and Renney sticks with the rotation.

    Then halfway through the month Khabi gets 4 starts in a row. Granted he was playing well but as I recall so was Dubnyk. So Renney switches to the “hot hand” rather than continue the rotation. This to me sent a message to Dubnyk that the coaching staff didn’t really trust him to be the guy. Khabi was sensational but Dubnyk was not afforded the same opportunity.

    The reason why I suspect Dubnyk’s performance has been affected by lack of confidence is because of the way he’s playing. He looks tentative and unsure at times. He seems to be forcing things he doesn’t need to be (ie playing the puck in a bad spot last night). Those are all indications to me that he’s trying to do too much.

    I had a feeling Renney was mishandling the goalies early in the season given the fact that it’s more likely Dubnyk is around longer than Khabibulin. I guess the hot start got everybody thinking big.

    Goaltending is 90% mental. Not all goalies are the same but I’m not sure most coaches understand how goalies tick.

  51. Schitzo says:

    Cross-posting this from Tyler’s site, feel free to delete if you think it’s redundant.

    Was at the season ticket holder meet-and-greet today, chance for photos with the players and then a 45 minute propaganda session that would make the Iraqi information minister blush.

    Roundtable opens with a promo video. If there was a single frame where Hemsky was visible, I missed it. Extremely ominous.

    Laforge gets asked about price increases on season tickets. He says that the cost of the product is not tied to the results on the ice, and the bills have to get paid whether we win or lose. Convenient that he ignored the fact that when your team is made up of guys on ELCs, your salary expenses tend to go down.

    Tambo made a comment about all the defencemen in the pipeline and that they project them 3-4 years out. Described the upcoming three years as the gap where we would keep veterans around until we’re able to move them and replace them with the prospects. If there would have been a wall within a hundred feet I would have dented it with my head at that one.

    New arena new arena new arena, everybody cheer, hurray, go team, circlejerk away.

    Laforge and Tambo both referenced the fact that for the first time in ten years, we have a unified development system in place between OKC and the Oilers. Which would raise the question of why the incompetent boob who put the last system in place didn’t get fired.

    Hard-on for David Musil. Mentioned repeatedly and randomly.

    Clearly described this as year two of the rebuild, and that there were multiple years to go.

    All in all, a pretty frustrating experience. But not surprising.

  52. commonfan14 says:

    If they weren’t before tonight, the Kings must now be officially desperate.

  53. oilersfan says:

    nobody mentioning it so I will. Marincin with 6 points in his last three games with the Pats. 11 points in 16 games with them since the trade. He started off strong with a real lull for about 6 games, now is on fire.

    Lowetide would you consider interviewing the coach of the Pats or maybe their radio voice for some commentary on Marincin on Oilersradio ?

    Just a suggestion

  54. oilersfan says:

    For all the problems this team has, number 1,2, and 3 is goaltending. I have watched the last few flames games and that mediocre team has stolen most of their recent points off the back of Kiprosoff. I think they are 9-0-2 or something like that, can’t remember the last regulation loss.

    Hate them so much.

    That Scott Hannan is playing with Giordano on the second pairing and sure would have looked good here. I believe he is available this summer, and that he was signed late August. Of course Feaster will sign him for half the market price because he is not half the idiot Tambo is. For all the gnashing of teeth one has to give Feaster credit for getting players to sign on the cheap. Glencross has more goals per game than Eberle and he is locked up for awhile at less than $3 million per. Anybody think he would be worth picking up? Any thoughts on Greg Zanon to play with Petry as the defensive part of the pairing? Man wouldn’t Glenx look good on the left side with RNH and Eberle as the mean power forward who can score and play well in his own end.

  55. Woodguy says:

    Flames in a playoff spot.

    I’d like to see the Flames make the playoffs for one reason.

    It will cause weeping and gnashing of teeth in Edmonton and might expidite the exit of Tambellini.

  56. art vandelay says:

    The reality (from the org’s perspective):

    ……..new arena new arena new arena …….

    The rest is filler.

  57. Schitzo says:

    Woodguy: Flames in a playoff spot.I’d like to see the Flames make the playoffs for one reason.It will cause weeping and gnashing of teeth in Edmonton and might expidite the exit of Tambellini.

    I would have loved to be able to ask Tambo: “Jay Feaster’s comments on our rebuild. Discuss.”

  58. cabbiesmacker says:

    OilClog:
    cabbiesmacker,
    Toews is not the person MPS needs to watch, Toews IMO if top 10 in the world, that’s it. Malkin doesn’t allow 9 game losing streaks to happen.

    Pretty ridiculous comment. Perhaps you didn’t realize that Toews was injured for a portion of that losing streak, that he came back early, and that the Hawks defence and goaltending have been shitting the bed.

    Gee…if Malkin is the beat all and end all I wonder how he allowed losing the Stanley Cup finals to happen. Your logic back.

    Toews is 2 years younger than Malkin, makes $3M less a year, is a far better leader, is more durable having played roughly 50 more games than Malkin the past 3 years and put up 20 more points in that timeframe, kills Malkin in +-, and was the best forward on the ice for Canada at the last Olympics. Next!

  59. knighttown says:

    Woodguy:
    KT,

    Assuming 83 is gone and nothing in terms of NHL quality forward is coming back, where do you see them slotted next year?

    I see something like:

    14-93-91
    4-89-23
    94-10-28
    55-20-57

    I can see them moving 89 for a D man and going with:

    14-93-91
    4-10-23
    94-20-28
    55-57-56

    Shelter line 1 with lots of Ozone starts, line 2 will get 1st pairng D thrown at them
    Line 3 will get thrown at the best of the other team
    Line 4 will be line 4.

    10 is really out of place on line 2 these day.

    Last night 91-10-83 got nothing going 0-3=-3 for scoring changes.

    83 shares the blame on that, its games like that make me understand (somewhat) why some fans want to drive him to the airport.

    Maybe the draft the big Russian and put him at 2C?

    Anyway you slice it, there’s a lot of players needing shelter and not enough shelter to go around.

    You and I are on exactly the same page with respect to why the Oilers blow on the road. It’s all matchups and Tom Renney hasn’t realized it yet. Seriously…hasn’t crossed his mind. I’d use almost exactly what he’s got now at home but on the road I’d channel OTC (you made it happen…amazing) from Game 1, 2009 and spread what talent we do have throughout the lineup.

    I don’t think the Oilers have the worst forwards in the league but I do think they have the highest number of one-dimensional forwards in the league. Not all the same dimensions but there really isn’t one guy you’d call a 5-tool guy who could play it anyway you like it. In baseball terms, it’d be like having this lineup:
    1. Otis Nixon
    2. Willie McGee
    3. Matt Stairs
    4. Rob Deer
    5. Pete Incaviglia
    6. Lyle Overbay
    7. Joe Mauer
    8. John McDonald
    9. Tim Wakefield

    Nice collection of talent. You’ve got speed, power, batting average and solid fielding but not one of those guys can do two of those things.

    We’ve got offense only (83, 4, 23, 89, 14, 93), defensive only (10, 20, 37), toughness (55, 16) and grit (28, 94). I guess maybe Smyth could be a 2-tool guy but this team desperately needs David Backes, Pavel Datsyuk or Ryan Kesler.

    On paper I’d play two different games. At home I’d use the current lineup and try and play a 5-3 game. On the road I’d go for absolute balance to avoid that handful of matchups that kill this team:

    4-10-14
    94-93-83
    91-89-28
    55-20-23
    5/58
    24/77
    6/25

    Balance everywhere. No real good matchups but no real disasters and I’d try to win 2-1.

    And I’m sorry, I know your questions asked what I’d do without Hemmer or an 83 equivalent but a universe where that is the reality is not a place I want to live.

  60. Woodguy says:

    knighttown,

    I’ve never seen a NHL coach use different lines on the road.

    I wonder what the players whould think about it?

    I wonder how it would effect line chemistry?

    I think another solution is to have more NHL Caliber talent, but the plan here seems to be to wait until every draft pick grows up.

    They should have a balanced roster for 40 games before 4 and 14 are free agents.

  61. Lowetide says:

    Great exchange KT and WG, interesting stuff. I think a good coach like Hitchcock would mow about 5 roster spots before his head hit the pillow.

    Hey, with Wakefield retiring are there any knucklers left in mlb?

  62. Wolfie says:

    R.A. Dickey throws the knuckleball I think. I’m not sure if he’s still playing though.

  63. VOR says:

    The problem DSF is that if they haven’t ever played tough minutes you have no way of knowing they can. So you are saying probably there is somebody out there who could replace Hemsky’s tough minutes. All I was demonstrating was that there is. A field of 1 based on known performance. There might well be more, but even Mike Gillis has no way of knowing who they are.

    Hemsky’s GF60/GA60 is largely a result of his career low shooting percentage and a truly terrible shooting shoting percentage by his linemates. The first is in his control but not his fault that renney keeps putting him out with guys who can’t hit the ocean from the end of the pier.

  64. SK Oiler Fan says:

    Lowetide,

    That’s a pretty grim, but realistic look for next year. Unless ST miraculously aquires the 06 Pronger that F lineup is 1 injury away from another lottery pick in 13 IMO.

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