Money Mentor

I’ve written more words about the blueline than anything else on this blog, and it looks like the river leads to an ocean. Edmonton’s one deadline deal sends away a two-way defenseman and acquires another pure defender, with a voice (Jeff Petry) of similar timbre to the man sent packing stepping in for a long run.

The trade (Gilbert for Schultz) changes the equation for the Oilers at one of the two positions vital to improvement (the other being goal). The Oilers have a nice group at other positions (although they could use some more depth on the wings–especially if Paajarvi fails) but that blueline has been a tough item since spring 2006.

I have a theory, been working on it since the deadline. The theory comes from yesterday’s deal that basically sent a solid defensive shortstop with a pretty good bat away for a solid defensive shortstop who is Mendoza line. You have to be looking for something specific to make that deal, and my guess is the organization wanted a specific player-type to mentor the kids.

CONSIDER THIS

I’m left with four possible conclusions:

  • The Oilers–no longer confident that Ryan Whitney can be a complete defender and worried over his mobility–have hired a “defense first” option to take care of that part of the game.
  • The Oilers–knowing they will audition many youngsters along the blue starting in the fall–among them (possibly) Ryan Murray or Griffin Reinhart, but definitely included Oscar Klefbom, Martin Marincin, Colten Teubert, Martin Gernat and David Musil–wanted a veteran stay-at-home to cover all the mistakes.
  • He (Gilbert) asked for a trade and they told him to stay back in Edmonton and they’d cut a deal. This has been suggested by several posters at this blog today.
  • The Oilers wanted a more gritty mentor to work alongside the new kids who are coming. His WHL roots–in my opinion–probably gave him an edge for the role he’ll fill (with Laddy Smid) in the coming years.

2011-12

BEHIND THE NET SAYS……..Nick Schultz

  • Offensive Zone Start: 41.0 third toughest among Minnesota regulars over 35GP, although he faced the toughest among those who have played over 40 games
  • CorsiRel: -8.7, worst on the team among regulars over 35GP
  • Qual Comp: 5th toughest, although the 3-5 D appear quite close

BEHIND THE NET SAYS……..Tom Gilbert

  • Offensive Zone Start: 50.5,fourth toughest among Edmonton regulars over 35GP
  • CorsiRel: 2.6 third best on the team among regulars over 35GP
  • Qual Comp: 3rd toughest

2010-11

BEHIND THE NET SAYS……..Nick Schultz

  • Offensive Zone Start: 41.6 third toughest among Minnesota regulars over 35GP
  • CorsiRel: 5.5, third best on the team among regulars over 35GP
  • Qual Comp: toughest on the team

BEHIND THE NET SAYS……..Tom Gilbert

  • Offensive Zone Start: 51.4,fifth toughest among Edmonton regulars over 35GP
  • CorsiRel: 6.0, best on the team among regulars over 35GP
  • Qual Comp: toughest on the team

I’m not certain how much to value the zone starts, which seem to punish Schultz heavily but see him recover well: In both of these seasons (10-11, 11-12), Schultz’s zone start/end is a strong positive–about 6 percentage points per season–but again I’m not certain how much to weight that against the CorsiRel.

What say you? My guess is that although the zone starts are tougher for Schultz, and the recovery rate impressive, any edge the new Oiler has defensively isn’t enough to make up for the offensive edge enjoyed by Gilbert.

This fall, we could see:

  • Whitney-Schultz
  • Smid-Petry
  • Sutton-Potter
  • Peckham

but I bet you a 2-4 that one of Ryan Murray or Griffin Reinhart forces his way onto the roster and sees plenty of time with Nick Schultz as this thing rolls along.

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96 Responses to "Money Mentor"

  1. godot10 says:

    I also suggested the mentor meme at the end of the last thread.

    Smid-Petry
    Whitney(if healthy)-some new veteran top 4 D
    Schultz-(Klefbom, Marincin, Teubert, Murray, Reinhart, etc)

    i.e. Schultz as “finishing school”

  2. Gerta Rauss says:

    That’s probably reasonable but Jesus they need another NHL defender-right or left handed- to play with Schultz and Whitney get’s 3rd pairing minutes with Potter…if he’s healthy all the better,that 3rd pairing would probably do quite welll against other 3rd pairings.

    Sutton and the kid(s) sub in for injuries and take turns in the press box and Peckham is moved to acquire said NHL defender.

  3. Denniss says:

    Been a long time since LT banned me so here goes!!

    - just kidding

    - interesting thought that Oil no longer believe in 6′s ability as a two way defender but if that was the case then why in the fuck would you deal away your Best healthy two way defender?

    - I don’t think lottery picks have to “force” themselves onto the Oilers roster; it just happens like that; and if 15 is here to caddy for a lottery pick kid dman then dear jesus he’s gonna be wasted or they have plans for another lottery pick in 2012 in the wake of the kid’s icetime.

    - I don’t want to waste too many bullets here because I’m gonna blog about this at Ty’s site in a new column called ‘Pucking Around’ that I’m trying to get off the ground. You might know it by it’s initial offering having called this trade of Gilbert; albeit in a less than linear fashion, mind you. In any case, i think it puts the 83 signing into a new light, specifically in that the Oilers lucked into that deal and don’t really know the value of their own players.

    - don’t post here – or anywhere for that matter – much anymore and I’m more of a twitter guy these days. @DKingBH is my handle.

    - finally, nice to see a guy I respect in KT break out some bullet points the other night and call them Denniss:) I never had the discipline or diplomacy to work this genre like LT does but it’s nice to see a bit of influence trickle down.

  4. DSF says:

    I think all four of your possibilities conclusions have merit.

  5. peeps says:

    Lowetide said…: I’m left with four possible conclusions:
    (1) The Oilers–no longer confident that Ryan Whitney can be a complete defender and worried over his mobility–have hired a “defense first” option to take care of that part of the game…

    I cannot accept that this was really what happened. If Whitney can’t be trusted moving forward, then ST should trade away Whitney and keep Gilbert (who should still be reliable for years… probably longer than Shultz).

    If this line of reasoning is actually true…
    (1) Oilers have Gilbert, Whitney, & Petry (3 good puck moving defensemen)
    (2) ST is concerned that Whitney won’t last long-term (down to 2 good puck moving)
    (3) ST trades Gilbert away for a non puck-moving defensemen (down to 1 good puck moving defensemen)
    (4) Note: Petry has plaid less than 100 NHL games (down to 0 proven good puck moving defensemen)

    Is this really what just happened. “Geez we sure don’t have a lot of proven puck-moving defensemen”

    *spits

  6. Lowetide says:

    I don’t think you could trade Whitney. He had foot problems, had an operation and now he’s less than (my guess) 60% of full value. Oilers can’t trade Whitney imo. He has enormous negative value considering level of play and cap hit.

  7. Traktor says:

    Whitney is +2 over his last 9 games with 4 points and averaging over 20 minutes per game over that span.

    He might not ever be as healthy as Hemsky but it seems he is playing pretty well recently.

    He has one year left on his deal and could go either way. I would certainly take a gamble on a player like him via free agency for 1 year over the 4-5 year term alternatives for a player with his potential. “Enormous negative value” seems pretty far off.

    Didn’t take Gilbert long to get his first minus.

  8. Woodguy says:

    The Oilers–no longer confident that Ryan Whitney can be a complete defender and worried over his mobility–have hired a “defense first” option to take care of that part of the game.

    It’s interesting that you come to this conclusion, when my initial thought was that they were overlooking this by trading Gilbert (same as Dennis)

    I understand your logic though and its compelling.

    Whitney can still pass (sublimely at times), but can’t defend, and you can’t trade damaged goods (haha!), so bring in a good to very good defensive man to handle that part of the load.

    Whitney, Petry and NEWBOY will be the puck movers and Smid, Shultz and Sutton will be cover men. Sutton scares me in that role, his foot speed creates a lot of 2 on 1s for his partners.

    Makes sense.

    Klefbom, Musil, and Marincin will certainly audition for the NEWBOY role, as might Murray if they draft him.

    v4.0 went on and on about Shultz’s reliability at the end of the game.

    Perhaps there was too much chaos in Gilbert’s game in his own zone, comparatively, for their liking.

    You’re not going to trade Petry, too young to get value and he is a good candidate to out perform his contract.

    This deal makes more sense in this light.

    I do agree with Dennis though that if v3.2 would have gotten near the value he wanted for Hemsky, he was gone. Not enough value available, so he signs him and becomes v4.0.

  9. Rondo says:

    She wore blue velvet

  10. nelson88 says:

    Lowetide:
    Whitney against middling competition
    http://www.behindthenet.ca/nhl_statistics.php?ds=29&f1=2011_s&f2=5v5&f4=D&f5=EDM&f7=20-&c=0+1+3+5+2+4+6+7+8+20+10+29+30+31+35+36+37+38+39+40+47+48+49+50+51+52+53+54+55+56

    Are these results easily broken down into smaller pieces?

    I understand and buy into the “Whitney’s health is a risk” moving forward narrative. However; over the 12 game stretch since the beginning of February his stat line is 8 pts, -3, right around 22.5 minutes ATOI and with the lowest total being 18:43. That is not typical of a #5/6 defender as some are suggesting.

    He may never get to 100% and it may not be prudent to count on his ankle holding up moving forward but let’s not start slagging the guy unnecessarily. He needs a chance to recover to game shape/speed just as Hemsky did.

  11. DSF says:

    Woodguy,

    I was hoping you would drop by Woodguy.

    The bet you proposed, Ales Hemsky vs. Dustin Brown, is looking a little grim from your point of view.

    Brown now has 4G 7A 11P since you twisted my arm and Hemsky only has 0G 2A 2P.

    Would you like to concede now or do you want to continue this charade until Hemsky’s contract expires? :)

  12. nelson88 says:

    Traktor:
    Whitney is +2 over his last 9 games with 4 points and averaging over 20 minutes per game over that span.

    He might not ever be as healthy as Hemsky but it seems he is playing pretty well recently.

    He has one year left on his deal and could go either way. I would certainly take a gamble on a player like him via free agency for 1 year over the 4-5 year term alternatives for a player with his potential.“Enormous negative value” seems pretty far off.

    Didn’t take Gilbert long to get his first minus.

    Traktor beat me to it. Scary that I find myself agreeing with that fellow more and more lately…;)

  13. PDO says:

    DSF loves small sample sizes more than Joffrey Lupul loves gasoline fights.

  14. gogliano says:

    I wonder if they’re already thinking of picking a top flight D with their pick. Even if they slide into 28th they still have a 70% chance of picking third or higher and I could see them staying away from Grigorenko based on past draft history. That probably leaves Forsberg or a defenseman wherever they end up picking. Hopefullly they’re assuming the kid goes back for at least 12 months but they might already be penciling things like this in.

  15. DSF says:

    PDO:
    DSF loves small sample sizes more than Joffrey Lupul loves gasoline fights.

    Oh, I love larger sample sizes too!

    Last 3 seasons:

    Hemsky – 26G 66A 92P
    Brown – 70G 79A 149P

    The season before that Hemsky had 66 points and Brown only had 53.

    But the season before that Brown had 60 and Hemsky 71.

    Looks like the arrows are pointed in opposite directions.

  16. Lowetide says:

    gogliano:
    I wonder if they’re already thinking of picking a top flight D with their pick.Even if they slide into 28th they still have a 70% chance of picking third or higher and I could see them staying away from Grigorenko based on past draft history.That probably leaves Forsberg or a defenseman wherever they end up picking.Hopefullly they’re assuming the kid goes back for at least 12 months but they might already be penciling things like this in.

    I think they’ll pick one of Murray or Reinhart if they pick #2 overall or lower.

  17. peeps says:

    Lowetide,

    Okay… I can get behind the mindset that Whitney is not tradeable right now. Fine. But this still seems insane that if Whitney is the problem, why get rid of the other guy at all? Just push Whitney down the depth chart with additional defensemen.

    I realize this is taking things to extremes, but this is almost like us noticing in few years that Smyth is looking old and hobbled for a top-6 LW, so we trade away Taylor Hall (another top-6 LW) and slot Pajaarvi up the depth chart since he has shown signs of being a top-6 LW too. I don’t understand why a team would get rid of their best player in any position unless something potentially better is coming back..

    Put it another way… Pronger got a concussion last fall. This February, the Flyers made the following moves:
    - Obtain Nicklas Grossman from the Dallas Stars (for 2012 2nd round pick, 2013 3rd round pick)
    - Obtain Pavel Kubina from Tampa Bay Lighting (for Jonathon Kalinski. a conditional 2013 2nd round pick, 2013 4th round pick)

    The Flyers had an injured defensemen, and trades draft picks and a winger drafted in 2007 who has played 22 NHL games and has 5 points to show for it. They didn’t trade away one of their other remaining top-4 d-men.

    *Question: Could Grossman be considered comparable to Shultz? I sure hope note, because there’s no way we could get a Gilbert-esque player for a 2nd and a 3rd round pick.

  18. Woodguy says:

    DSF:
    Woodguy,

    I was hoping you would drop by Woodguy.

    The bet you proposed, Ales Hemsky vs. Dustin Brown, is looking a little grim from your point of view.

    Brown now has 4G 7A 11P since you twisted my arm and Hemsky only has 0G 2A 2P.

    Would you like to concede now or do you want to continue this charade until Hemsky’s contract expires?

    I love the way you try to change it since Brown is off to a good start.

    YOU deferred it until the beginning of next season due to the uncertainty of where each player would be playing.

    It is exactly like you to look at recent results and insist that the bet has actually started.

    Standard.

  19. sliderule says:

    I liked Gilbert.He had turnovers but when you have most of the responsibility to move the puck out think of Steve Nash.

    Of the oiler prospects we have Klefbom, Marcinin Teubert and Musil.Marcinin has an 100 mph snapshot but will spend most of next year in AHL.Teubert is gritty and not that bad as a defender but to move the puck nyet.Musil is someone who the Oil really like but I see him as a sutton clone .Klefbom will eventually be way better than Gilbert but think three seasons out.

    So who do we have to recover and move the puck out next season.

    Nobody!,,

  20. Lowetide says:

    Peeps: I’m not saying it made sense to deal Gilbert, I’m trying to understand why they would deal him for a player who can be useful in fewer situations. My theory on Whitney pertains to his inability to be the cover man on the rush (like Whitney the other night) and the club perhaps marrying him to a player they feel is stronger defensively.

  21. bookje says:

    Woodguy: I love the way you try to change it since Brown is off to a good start.

    YOU deferred it until the beginning of next season due to the uncertainty of where each player would be playing.

    It is exactly like you to look at recent results and insist that the bet has actually started.

    Standard.

    WG – Though I hate to do this because its DSF, but I sensed that DFS’s tone was a bit tongue in cheek here – not that he doesn’t believe he is right, but that he is being a bit ‘over the top’ in declaring victory after 4 days.

    With that said, it is DSF, so it’s hard to say.

  22. peeps says:

    Sorry Lowetide… I finally understand your point.

    I got some numbers from “Behind the Net” (sorry, I’m really new to this)

    Grossman / Schultz
    GP 70.3 / 77.7
    QOC 0.05 / 0.02
    QOT -0.05 / 0.02
    P/60 0.5 / 0.6
    Offensive Zone Start 43.7 / 37.3
    Offensive Zone Finish % 48.9 / 46

    So based on this, Grossman takes on better competition with worse teammates, puts up comparable points, and also shifts the play forward (though not as much as Schultz). Is this interpretation right?

    Does this reinforce that we should have been able to get a Schultz-like player for a 2nd and a 3rd instead of a Gilbert? Thanks!

  23. Woodguy says:

    bookje: WG – Though I hate to do this because its DSF, but I sensed that DFS’s tone was a bit tongue in cheek here – not that he doesn’t believe he is right, but that he is being a bit ‘over the top’ in declaring victory after 4 days.

    With that said, it is DSF, so it’s hard to say.

    Perhaps.

    If that’s the case, then I’m all for the trash talk.

    Integral part of the bet.

    I read it again and it still reads like the bet has started, when in fact, is has not.

    I like my bet .

    A lot.

  24. hags9k says:

    I think Schultz will end up being a great veteran for a kid like Musil to learn from. Just finished watching about a half dozen Musil scraps on youtube. Buddy is a clydesdale. Can’t wait to see more of Klefbom and Murray. The future is bright on D. We will need a tender to carry mail as early as next year. Hopefully 40 can take another step forward.

  25. Lowetide says:

    Peeps: Is your QOC number where they rank on their team or the specific number? I’d be interested to see where each ranks on their respective team.

    As for what Gilbert’s value is in terms of draft picks added to make Schultz an even deal, have no idea. I do think most of us were and are surprised by the deal which likely means there should have been something else coming back to EDM.

    I’m not sure anyone can quantify the amount.

  26. Gret99zky says:

    Finally.

    Back to the tried and true LT formula.

    a: Provide a forum for hotblooded, rabid, often misinformed, sometimes tipsy, always mathworthy Oiler fans to spew their distain for the team, coaches and management for the decisions of the day.

    b: Ask short, simple questions that enable to commentor to expland on his/her thinking and post some more, in doing so acknowledging the posters’ important feelings and lightening the moment.

    c: Provide a new thread complete with silver lining.

    d: je ne sais quoi

    e: Profit.

    I love this place.

  27. Smarmy says:

    Lowetide: I think they’ll pick one of Murray or Reinhart if they pick #2 overall or lower.

    I disagree. I think they take Grigorenko/Yakupov if they’re second and Murray if they’re 3rd.

    Reinhart seems like a good bet for them at 4th or 5th. He’s good and he’s an Oil King but I think I like Morgan O’reilly a little more then him. (Now that I’ve seen him play a some games the last few weeks)

  28. DSF says:

    Woodguy: I love the way you try to change it since Brown is off to a good start.

    YOU deferred it until the beginning of next season due to the uncertainty of where each player would be playing.

    It is exactly like you to look at recent results and insist that the bet has actually started.

    Standard.

    LOL.

    I deferred it until “we saw where they landed” after the trade deadline but you were so insistent I thought you would like to get right on it.

    But I’m good with it if you don’t want to count the final 20 games this season in hopes you’ll have a chance.

    :)

  29. Woodguy says:

    DSF: Oh, I love larger sample sizes too!

    Last 3 seasons:

    Hemsky – 26G 66A 92P
    Brown – 70G 79A 149P

    The season before that Hemsky had 66 points and Brown only had 53.

    But the season before that Brown had 60 and Hemsky 71.

    Looks like the arrows are pointed in opposite directions.

    Last 3 season:

    Hemsky .780pts per game (including horrible start to this season coming off of surgery)
    Brown .674pts per game (doesn’t look like he missed a game)

    I think the new Robo-Hemsky with re-contsructed shoulders is a good bet to play a few more games in the next two years than the last 3.

  30. Woodguy says:

    DSF: LOL.

    I deferred it until “we saw where they landed” after the trade deadline but you were so insistent I thought you would like to get right on it.

    But I’m good with it if you don’t want to count the final 20 games this season in hopes you’ll have a chance.

    We still don’t have terms.

    Lets leave this until another thread, we’ve derailed this one enough.

  31. Lowetide says:

    Gret99zky:
    Finally.

    Back to the tried and true LT formula.

    a:Provide a forum for hotblooded, rabid, often misinformed, sometimes tipsy, always mathworthy Oiler fans to spew their distain for the team, coaches and management for the decisions of the day.

    b:Ask short, simple questions that enable to commentor to expland on his/her thinking and post some more, in doing so acknowledging the posters’ important feelings and lightening the moment.

    c:Provide a new thread complete with silver lining.

    d:je ne sais quoi

    e:Profit.

    I love this place.

    Bang on, save for profit!

  32. Smarmy says:

    Argh I meant Dumba not Rielly since Rielly has been hurt most of the year.

  33. DSF says:

    Lowetide: Bang on, save for profit!

    Absinthe makes the heart grow fonder!

  34. TheOtherJohn says:

    Hope Schultz works out. Desperately!

    Management thought process: NFC…… seriously! Love the baseball analogy. Actually watched Mario Mendoza- well he could certainly field his position

    They should be planning to play Whitney in the 3rd pairing with some PP minutes. Less wear and tear. Fully expect the team sees him playing 22-25 minutes a night and surmised when breaks down.

    We will just have to wait for all the kids to develop. Do not think they have an offensive QB in the group of prospects so far unless it is Gernat and he is all risk/reward. Watched him twice live and he makes a young Dick Tarnstrom look like a stay at home guy. Also think those guys are 3-4 years away from making meaningful contribution to our D. Yes, yes Ricki I am aware of your WJC theory

    We need to find 2 more NHL caliber D men and push everyone down a spot or two

  35. Schitzo says:

    I could see a GM taking a gamble on Whitney as a rental or as a free agent, but when you have to give up any sort of significant assets, that’s too much of a risk for any prudent GM to take. Of course, we traded Lubo for him.

    Another thought – I wonder if we should have skipped the original Lubo trade and just kept Greene. Then we’d have our stay at home type AND Gilbert.

  36. godot10 says:

    peeps:
    Lowetide,

    .

    *Question:Could Grossman be considered comparable to Shultz?I sure hope note, because there’s no way we could get a Gilbert-esque player for a 2nd and a 3rd round pick.

    That is a ridiculously high price to pay for a defenseman for two months, if you are a 29th place hockey team.

    And an okay price if you are making a run for a Stanley Cup.

    Strategy and relative value is different for a Stanley Cup contender and a lottery team.

  37. Schitzo says:

    godot10,

    Good post. Big difference between the 32nd and 62nd picks, and what are likely to be approximately the 50th and 80th picks too.

  38. DSF says:

    Woodguy: Perhaps.

    If that’s the case, then I’m all for the trash talk.

    Integral part of the bet.

    I read it again and it still reads like the bet has started, when in fact, is has not.

    I like my bet .

    A lot.

    Just let me know when you might want to start counting.

    Brown with just 2P tonight. :)

  39. Ducey says:

    I don’t think it gets any more complicated than the fact the Oilers were looking for someone to play the Huddy/ Fogolin/ Staios/ Gator role in the top 4.

    They wanted someone who will stay at home for the puck rushers, is a fitness nut, is a professional and is very competitive. A mentor and a leader, both on the ice and in the dressing room.

  40. Bos8 says:

    A bit of off topic but here goes.

    Brought on by comments of kids making the Oilers D in the first year.

    Caveat – I’m not enamored of this draft. Too much boom, bust.

    Murray as the top D ranking?

    I think that Rheinhart will be the top D chosen come the draft.

    - Starting with Everett won’t make the playoffs
    - Rheinhart on stage with the playoffs on a powerhouse team
    - Murray above average in all facets but not high end
    - Rheinhart size and big shot

    Both are not great at that offense thingy.

    Murray plays on a bad team, Rheinhart at 19 assists on the Oil Kings is not good.

    Granted players don’t develop in linear fashion and the paucity of top forwards is a factor but it’s a hell of a gamble taking either of these two, top five.

  41. Lowetide says:

    I don’t think Reinhart passes Murray UNLESS he’s a better skater. And I don’t think he is.

  42. peeps says:

    Lowetide, I crunched the numbers for QOC and QOT, for the Stars and the Wild, over the last 3 full seasons (not counting this season). I counted only the top 7 defensemen (based on games played) for each team.

    Grossman:
    2008-2009: QOC 5th highest; QOT 3rd highest
    2009-2010: QOC 2nd highest; QOT 7th highest
    2010-2011: QOC 2nd highest; QOT 5th highest

    Shultz:
    2008-2009: QOC 1st highest; QOT 5th highest
    2009-2010: QOC 3rd highest; QOT 1st highest
    2010-2011: QOC 1st highest; QOT 1st highest

    Grossman has been only behind STEPHANE ROBIDAS over the last 2 years for quality faced. But Grossman has been doing it with bottom pairing defensemen (while Robidas is listed with 3rd highest QOT in 2009-2010, and 1st highest QOT last year).

  43. Traktor says:

    Bos8:

    Murray above average in all facets but not high end

    Murray has elite skating.

    He is already captain of his junior team and has the character you want when betting on someone with a top 3 pick.

    He isn’t setting the league on fire offensively but Everett is terrible.

  44. Woodguy says:

    DSF: Just let me know when you might want to start counting.

    Brown with just 2P tonight.

    The original bet was the next two years of each player. If you want to move it up, then I’m ok with that.

    From trade deadline day (Feb 27th, 2012) until end of the 2013/14 season?

    Brown has 3 pts, Hemsky has 1.

    Terms are statement upon demand, but not more than 4 times a week, not more than once in any thread, and it goes for the entire 14/15 season, including playoffs.

    Good?

  45. Bos8 says:

    Lowetide: I don’t think Reinhart passes Murray UNLESS he’s a better skater. And I don’t think he is.

    I wish I could see a few games just to get a read on their thinking/play reading etc. TV game watching is a killer.

    My take is that Murray will suffer from the out of sight, out of mind factor.

    I’m pulling like hell for the second Uke, Galchenyuk to come back strong in March

    It’s funny calling them Russian. A Tartar and two Ukrainians

  46. Lowetide says:

    Peeps: Interesting stuff. Grossman is UFa at season’s end? Might be worth pursuing, I wonder what his pricetag will be.

  47. Lowetide says:

    Bos8: Murray is the most famous Canadian in the draft. No way he gets lost.

  48. DSF says:

    Woodguy: The original bet was the next two years of each player.If you want to move it up, then I’m ok with that.

    From trade deadline day (Feb 27th, 2012) until end of the 2013/14 season?

    Brown has 3 pts, Hemsky has 1.

    Terms are statement upon demand, but not more than 4 times a week, not more than once in any thread, and it goes for the entire 14/15 season, including playoffs.

    Good?

    Woodguy: The original bet was the next two years of each player.If you want to move it up, then I’m ok with that.

    From trade deadline day (Feb 27th, 2012) until end of the 2013/14 season?

    Brown has 3 pts, Hemsky has 1.

    Terms are statement upon demand, but not more than 4 times a week, not more than once in any thread, and it goes for the entire 14/15 season, including playoffs.

    Good?

    Good.

    Once a week should do.

    From now until the end of 13/14.

    Playoffs?

    Insert Jim Mora pic here.

  49. Schitzo says:

    Lowetide: Bos8: Murray is the most famous Canadian in the draft. No way he gets lost.

    Not as long as Pierre McGuire still draws breath, at least.

  50. Bos8 says:

    Traktor: Murray has elite skating. He is already captain of his junior team and has the character you want when betting on someone with a top 3 pick.He isn’t setting the league on fire offensively but Everett is terrible.

    I take your point that he’s on a crappy team.

    Again I wish I could see them in person. So my read is he said, she said. I hate when that happens. He didn’t stand out in the big series to where you could say “Okay, there’s talent, that will dominate in time. I expected someone like what Klefbom showed. But then again you can’t tell squat in a couple of games on TV.

  51. peeps says:

    Lowetide: It is interesting (and I think I’ve finally got a handle at getting data off of Gabe’s website)

    BTW, Grossman was drafted in 2004, and he’s played 337 games in the NHL. His current salary is a cap hit of $1.625 million

    Schultz was drafted in 2000 (i.e., he’s 4 years older than Grossman), and since 2008 (i.e., 4 years ago), he’s been paid $3.5 million. Logically, if we’re saying Grossman is a younger comparable to Schultz, then $3.5-$4.0 would be a starting point.

    But that seems really expensive for a shut-down D-man… doesn’t it?

    Why would Schultz get THAT much money in 2008, especially since the cap was a lot lower back in 2008? Maybe he really does have excellent intangibles. Maybe?

  52. Bos8 says:

    Lowetide: Bos8: Murray is the most famous Canadian in the draft. No way he gets lost.

    Point – I yield

  53. Thinker says:

    I have a terrible feeling that tambellini has a very stupid plan for the summer. Its just a feeling but i see us drafting a d who is not good enough to plug in next year but doing so anyway, and watching jim flounder. Or i guess he could throw a big offer sheet at weber, losing valuable picks. Can’t logically confirm this but my trick knees a goin.

  54. Semenko and Troy says:

    Where does Dumba fit in? I’ve only seen him live once, but he has the explosiveness of a Bure. Is there a place for that kind of a d-guy in our defensive ‘balance’ ?

  55. major says:

    I’m on the same page as THINKER. I’ve been mulling over a “conspiracy theory” that suggests trading for Schultz was effectively acquiring Weber’s d-partner. It involves strong arming Piolle with an offer sheet structure that a) takes advantage of the fact this is the last year of the current CBC, and b) uses a salary structure (not total figure, but payment structure) that would bankrupt the Preds.

    If there’s any interest, I will share my thought process on this one.

  56. Gret99zky says:

    Thinker:
    I have a terrible feeling that tambellini has a very stupid plan for the summer. Its just a feeling but i see us drafting a d who is not good enough to plug in next year but doing so anyway, and watching jim flounder. Or i guess he could throw a big offer sheet at weber, losing valuable picks.Can’t logically confirm this but my trick knees a goin.

    Will it be the summer of love?

    Edit: What’s Mackenzie got Jim Flounder rated?

  57. Dipstick says:

    wrt Murray being on a crappy team, we have seen the change in Marnicin’s production after moving to Regina from PG. Reinhart looks like a real player. Glad that when I pick one over the other there are no consequences.

  58. DSF says:

    major:
    I’m on the same page as THINKER.I’ve been mulling over a “conspiracy theory” that suggests trading for Schultz was effectively acquiring Weber’s d-partner.It involves strong arming Piolle with an offer sheet structure that a) takes advantage of the fact this is the last year of the current CBC, and b) uses a salary structure (not total figure, but payment structure) that would bankrupt the Preds.

    If there’s any interest, I will share my thought process on this one.

    That pre-supposes Weber would sign an offer sheet from the Oilers.

    He won’t.

  59. Dooz says:

    Eric T. From Broad Street Hockey had an interesting comment about zone starts regarding the Schultz/ Gilbert Comparison. Players with a 41% zone start (Schultz) finish in the offensive zone 47.4% of the time. Schultz had a 47.5% zone finish, 0.1% above the average. Players with a 50.5% offensive zone start (Gilbert) finish in the o-zone 50.25% of the time. Gilbert finished in the o-zone 50.7% of the time, 0.45% above the average.

    I’m not entirely sure of the significance of these numbers ( whether they are negligible or not), but it certainly favors Gilbert.

  60. Schitzo says:

    Dooz,

    Dooz: One thing I’d be curious about is score effects – we know that the losing team often ends up with more shots as their opponent begins to sit back. My gut feeling is that zone finish would also be affected, but no clue if anyone has actually run the numbers.

  61. Ryan says:

    Speaking of money mentor, has anyone ever tried to money ball an NHL defenseman?

    I don’t have access to the core data, but I would imagine something like this would work

    1. PK

    4v5/60 factored for toi /60 x 82 games with the final calculation being the goals saved vs. league average.

    2. PP

    As above, but 5v4/60 above league average factored for toi/60 and the final calc being points produced on PP over entire season over league average.

    3. EV

    Toi/60 x 82 games then adjusted for QC and zone start with a final number representing ev points over a season above league average.

    Is this just nonsense or an interesting idea?

  62. Schitzo says:

    Ryan,

    I’d be stunned if Ricki doesn’t have something along those lines.

  63. Ryan says:

    I think the final calc would be interesting and would work for forwards too.

    i.e. a player that plays limited pk minutes below league average and loses 10 goals, is a superstar on the PP and adds 30 goals, then is above average at evens and contributes to a positive 30 goals: -10 +30 +30= +50 or whatever. :p

  64. boopronger says:

    My guess is that the Oilers plan to run Whitney/Schultz as the top pairing next season. Need a dman to cover up all of Whitneys screw-ups.

  65. Gret99zky says:

    One thing’s for sure.

    If I had a nickel for every post I read wanting Gilbert out of town since signing that $4M/per contract back in the day…

    Well, I’d wouldn’t have to worry about $ anymore. Which is good. Just one more thing.

  66. Bank Shot says:

    Season by season run down.

    2011/12

    Gilbert-2.44 GA/60 3rd Best on team. QOC 3rd Highest
    Schultz-2.00 GA/60 2nd Best. QOC 5th Highest.

    2010/2011

    Gilbert-3.23 GA/60 Worst on team. QOC 1st Highest
    Schultz-2.57 GA/60 2nd Worst on team. QOC 1st Highest

    2009/2010

    Gilbert-2.84 GA/60 2nd Best on Team. QOC 1st Highest
    Schultz-2.49 GA/60 3rd Best on team. QOC 3rd highest

    2008/2009

    Gilbert-2.79 GA/60 Worst on team. QOC 2nd highest
    Schultz- 2.06 GA/60 2nd best on team. QOC 1st highest

    2007/2008

    Gilbert- 2.98 GA/60 3rd worst on team. QOC 1st highest
    Schultz-2.11 GA/60 2nd best on team. QOC 1st highest

    Tough to compare across teams, but Schultz has never been the worst on his team when it comes to goals against per 60. Gilbert has done it twice in the past 5 seasons. Schultz has been the tough minute defence man on a good defensive team, while giving up very little.

    Does it mean anything? Maybe Schultz’s defence is better then Gilbert’s defence by enough of a margin that it balances out his lack of offence.

    The Oilers haven’t had any problems scoring goals this season, but they are once again terribly bad defensively. If Schultz can turn that tide somewhat, then the trade is worth it.

    I like Gilbert, but I didn’t see him as untouchable. Schultz has a good reputation as a shutdown guy. I don’t know if the OIlers won this trade, but I don’t disagree with the idea.

  67. "Steve Smith" says:

    Bank Shot,

    Using GA/60 without tempering it with SV%ON is silly – too subject to random swings, as I think your data above show.

  68. Bank Shot says:

    "Steve Smith",

    Maybe its luck. Schultz has been lucky every season PDO’s have been tracked with the exception of this year. His PDO is currently 998.

    Perhaps the Oilers need a guy that gets lucky every single season.

    I’m not claiming GA/60 is the bible, but Schultz has performed well there despite getting the worst offensive zone starts for 5 years running. Much tougher then Gilbert. Schultz started 26.5% of his shifts in the offensive zone in 08/09. Its been an uphill battle.

    Most Advanced stats just aren’t going to make a defense only defenceman look great. Stuff like relative corsi gets beaten down when you start all your shifts in your own end.

  69. "Steve Smith" says:

    Bank Shot,

    If you’re looking at GA/60, you don’t want PDO, you want SV%. PDO takes into account SH%, which is irrelevant to GA/60.

    As for the notion that advanced stats don’t make defence-first defencemen look good…zonestart’s generally considered an advanced stat.

  70. "Steve Smith" says:

    Nick Schultz’s on-ice save percentage for the last five years: .940, .920, .917, .934, .930
    Tom Gilbert’s: .910, .889, .909, .913, .907

    Nick Schultz has, as you put it, gotten lucky every year because every year he’s been lucky enough to play in front of good goaltenders. I’m thinking his luck is about to run out.

  71. Bank Shot says:

    Willie Mitchell is another guy that is “lucky” every season despite not always thriving in the corsi department. Why do these guys always have high PDO’s?

    Schultz has been 1st or 2nd on his team for d-men in PDO 4 out of the last 5 seasons. He’s had a good goaltender, but he’s been “lucky” compared to his own teammates every single season.

    There is likely something there that corsi misses, but compels GM’s to pay these guys $3+ million per.

    I don’t know if Schultz is as good as Gilbert, but I don’t think relative corsi gives us the answer.

  72. "Steve Smith" says:

    Bank Shot: I don’t know if Schultz is as good as Gilbert, but I don’t think relative corsi gives us the answer.

    Nobody’s saying it does. We’re saying that the complete statistical picture does (including zonestart, zoneshift, qualcomp, PDO, etc.), and that the answer is “no”.

    As for high PDOs and sustain, I hypothesize that guys with high Qualteam numbers will systematically have higher on-ice shooting percentages, which will drive up PDOs. I would be very surprised if any players showed goaltender-independent sustain at on-ice save percentage (and I think that’s actually been tested by the advanced stats gurus, though I may be mistaken on that).

  73. rickithebear says:

    Schitzo: I’d be stunned if Ricki doesn’t have something along those lines.

    Monthly Excel sheet for the last three years. Broken up into 1st, 2nd, 3rd, comp for dmen and 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, Comp for Forwards. you can get an average for each then chart in a segmented graph to the columns you think critical.

    Football Focus does this when grading FA, you can review mutiple players with different graph colors overlayed all on one graph. visually easy to identify the better players.
    I am slowly getting to 6 values I would use to identify the player.

    I want corsi to be one of those points on the graph but the data is so flawed. Zone starts , Ga adjusted for zone Start, Shots yeilded, Ga adjusted for Penalties +/-, GA affect for PK relative to Average, Gf affect for PP relative to Average, Ev points/60

    The new excell shpould be able to graph for this.

    then you can see factors like just before Phanuef was trade he was the second worst EV dman for GA. So bad that he would have to be 2 times greater than the best Pp production relative to average just to break even.

    Interestingly gilbert was not that far off Phanuef at that time.

  74. Bank Shot says:

    “Steve Smith”,

    The statistical picture does not appear to be always clear. Especially not with stay at home defencemen.

    Rob Scuderi is another guy who has been top three in PDO on his team since 08-09. He’s changed teams, and his quality of teammates varies all over the place from season to season.

    Why do guys that are considered good shutdown d-men with low offensive output buck the trend?

    Perhaps something has been overlooked in the math.

  75. "Steve Smith" says:

    Why do guys that are considered good shutdown d-men with low offensive output buck the trend?

    Because the random deviations going their way causes them to be considered good shutdown d-men. And then luck stops going their way, and Rickbear dubs them the second worst defenceman in the league.

  76. Traktor says:

    I’m not sure if Ricki has the right multipliers but I think he is on the right track. BTN is far from perfect so you might as well come up with your own metrics.

  77. cc says:

    Can someone explain the love for Murray?

    In the WJC, Klefbom was the better dman (they are only 2 months apart in age) and I don’t see Klefbom being ready until mid-year next year at the earliest. I don’t see many WHL games but why is there no lover for Matt Dumba he’s almost a year younger than Murray averages more PPG and imo has a higher ceiling.

    By the numbers:
    Oscar Klefbom Born: July 20 1993 – 30 – 0 (SEL)
    Ryan Murray – Born: Sept 27 1993 – 36 – 24 (.66)
    Griffin Reinhart – Born: Jan 24 1994 – Points: 49 – 31 (.63)
    Matt Dumba – Born: July 25 1994 – Points: 58 – 44 (.76)

    Also, if Murray enters the 2011 draft he would not have been picked in the top 10 and possibly not even in the top 15. So why should we consider him a top 3 draft pick this year?

  78. Woodguy says:

    DSF:
    Good.

    Once a week should do.

    From now until the end of 13/14.

    Playoffs?

    Insert Jim Mora pic here.

    To be cleat, we are counting points from now until end of 13/14.

    The phrase upon demand will be during 14/15 season + playoffs.

    Phrase may be requested once a calendar week (Sun-Sat), no carry over if unused.

    Phrase cannot be modified in any way. It must be presented on its own in a post not containing any other words.

    Good?

    Good luck!

  79. Henry says:

    “Steve Smith”,

    Maybe the stats sheets need a column for second shots somehow. Perhaps guys like Schultz, and especially Mitchell are good at clearing the front and grabbing sticks so there are relatively fewer tap-ins. That would lead to a proportionately higher SV%.

  80. nathan says:

    woodguy & dsf,

    to be clear you are starting from this morning with both players at zero points?

  81. "Steve Smith" says:

    Henry,

    It’s a reasonable hypothesis, but my understanding is that it’s a disproved one – on ice save percentage regresses to the mean. I’ll try to find a citation for that.

  82. Woodguy says:

    DSF:
    Good.

    Done.

  83. Woodguy says:

    nathan:
    woodguy & dsf,

    to be clear you are starting from this morning with both players at zero points?

    No.

    We started with games after 3pm Monday Feb 27th.

    Brown has 3pts, Hemsky has 1.

  84. Woodguy says:

    “Steve Smith”:
    Henry,

    It’s a reasonable hypothesis, but my understanding is that it’s a disproved one – on ice save percentage regresses to the mean.I’ll try to find a citation for that.

    That and ONSV% often varies wildly from year to year with the same player. The player may have some effect, but its infinitesimal compared to the goalie.

  85. "Steve Smith" says:

    Here‘s a partial answer, which shows that PDO for an individual player will not necessarily regress towards 1000, but that its failure to do so is because players can drive shooting percentages (the article also notes, as I did, the effect of playing in front of a good or bad goalie – it doesn’t substantiate it with data, but I assume we can all agree that players who play in front of Tim Thomas will have higher ONSV%s than those that play in front of Ty Conklin). The data there suggest that individual skaters do not drive team save percentage in the way that they drive team shooting percentage, though it’s certainly not conclusive.

  86. maudite says:

    DSF,

    DSF: LOL.I deferred it until “we saw where they landed” after the trade deadline but you were so insistent I thought you would like to get right on it.But I’m good with it if you don’t want to count the final 20 games this season in hopes you’ll have a chance.

    Wow, I’ve somewhat enjoyed the contrarian shtick of DSF but wow. Woodguy was ready to make that bet right at that point….you weaseled out. Now, when all the deadline talk of Brown moving lit a fire under his ass you try to pretend like you had agreed that the bet started and when it started (cherry picking and almost implying that it would start at the beginning of his hot streak lol)….Wow. That is some GRADE A douchebaggery. It’s funny you honestly think it makes sense.

  87. Henry says:

    "Steve Smith",

    So i guess you have to normalize a defenseman’s ONSV against the goalie’s sv percentage to see the effect of having him on ice vs the other guys. But then the qual comp will come into play etc and the math will get quite complex. Need a weekend and a bottle of Talisker to try to figure it out.

  88. oilswell says:

    One of your co-authors on OilersNation — Jason Struwick — tried to dispassionately evaluate the trade and concluded that he would defend it. The reason? “Balance”. So is just having better players ever overridden by having balance? Even this post is about balance, as you’re counting numbers of capable wingers rather than, say, counting the goal differential. But your problem with Schultz is that he’s not as good a player? Its a confusing thing, no?

    Anyway, I think what probably happened is that Tambellini was sitting at home one day and said to himself “Holy cow, we have a lot of puck moving defencemen. We should ditch Gilbert and sign Sutton and Schultz.”

  89. "Steve Smith" says:

    Henry,

    Fortunately, Vic’s done a lot of the work already.

  90. rickithebear says:

    “Steve Smith”: Rickbear dubs them the second worst defenceman in the league.

    Steve: Defending a statistical concept with 3000% data variance and treating them as equal. Nice!

    Bank shot: PDO is a great concept. Based on Shots.

    Is save % a reflection on Goalie luck for a Player or the quality of shot the player yeilds?

    There are a shit load of goalies with a .908 to . 920 save%. So why such a difference in SV% relative to a goalies average.

    LUCK? Yep that s got to be it . He is a VICTIM of the GOALIE.
    Quality of shots given up? No way that is silly. Do’t you Know all shots are the same. LOL.

    CC:
    Awsome!
    ran the age and point count here two weeks ago. for top 60 Draft picks:
    I too went Muray. what the?

    Makes me think Moneyball.

    Does he score?
    No!
    Does hey play physical and dominate defensively
    No?
    Why do we want him?
    (long winded scouting description of why)
    Does he score?
    No………………

    There are players in the 30 to 50′s that are bigger, and project more offensive production.

  91. Henry says:

    “Steve Smith”,

    Thanks, that is a very good site. Will check it out much more.

  92. major says:

    DSF,

    Offer Weber an 80 million / 10 year contract, of which 40 million is given as an immediate signing bonus. Weber WILL sign since everyone seems to think there will be another 25% salary role back. Here’s the kicker: the signing bonus does not get rolled back – it is payed out under the current CBA. Getting that 40 million payed under the current CBA rather than waiting for the next CBA’s 25% wage role back will save Weber 10 million dollars.

    Let me put it this way: Weber has 10 million reasons to sign with edmonton this summer. Matching such an offer sheet would bankrupt the Preds. That’s why Weber COULD be an oiler this summer.

  93. nathan says:

    maudite,

    I wouldn’t be so keen to retroactively let DSF start the bet back at the date he declined to start it, but that’s Woodguy’s call and he’s OK with it. Don’t know if Woodguy noticed that Oilers have 2 games in hand right now. A 2 game hot streak by Hemsky could turn the tables on the date picking if you compare 16 games left to 16 games left.

  94. FastOil says:

    godot10: That is a ridiculously high price to pay for a defenseman for two months, if you are a 29th place hockey team.

    And an okay price if you are making a run for a Stanley Cup.

    Strategy and relative value is different for a Stanley Cup contender and a lottery team.

    I agree. The problem I have with this deal is that the strategy for a terrible team should be to get more good players. Why trade for a defensive specialist, just sign a UFA and keep your good player as well.

    It would not surprise me if Lowe/Steve-O have some sort of thing for Schultz in particular, so they had to trade for him instead of just hiring a similar, even if not quite as good, defensemen.

    And there in lies the difference between Holland and our guys. Knowing that the difference between good and really good sometimes is too small to pay extra for.

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