Open All Night

Darren Dreger’s line about a “roster player” has been rolling around in my mind all day. It’s an extremely vague statement and you could reasonably apply it to about 30 guys per team. However, the truth is that there are very few “roster players” available at this time of year, and of the group available a minute portion might be considered close to value for 83 at the deadline.

Most of us believe Ales Hemsky will be in another town playing for another team this time next week. The idea that the Oilers can throw a Hail Mary and connect in the endzone is fun, but history tells us it is unlikely. The “roster players” that might be available at the deadline are names like Cory Emmerton or Justin Abdelkader.

These are all guys with easy zone starts and offense that can be replaced in the summer. I don’t follow Detroit like some do, so maybe there’s a hidden gem in there or maybe the Wings are willing to trade young defender Brendan Smith with their latest blueline acquisition.Detroit traded their 1st rd pick in 2012 but this year’s draft is weak and the Oilers need more immediate help.

Who knows, Brendan Smith might shake loose with the Quincey acquisition, or maybe Nashville and Blum are the answer (although I’d argue not full value for a guy who can instantly improve the offense 5×5). I think Tambellini should starting thinking about an option that keeps Hemsky after the deadline with the idea of signing him after the season and before July 1.

Hemsky has not delivered an enormous offensive season and that has hurt the Oilers position–witness the “roster player” being too dear. Having said that, there’s no reason to accept 10 cents on the dollar for Hemsky and crown the Red Wings at the same time. Steve Yzerman already did a good job of that earlier in the week.

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85 Responses to "Open All Night"

  1. nathan says:

    “no reason to accept 10 cents on the dollar”

    10% of nothing (July 1 asset value) is nothing.

    IF the Oilers are willing to do 3-4 years somewhere between 5M-5.5M avg. and IF Hemsky wants to be here more than he wants to test the market there’s a deal to be made before the last day.

    If not then you’d only be looking at a roster player if the deal was better than the Penner return. Hemsky will still get 1st plus.

  2. Lowetide says:

    A 1st in a weak draft year? I’d rather take the chance he’ll sign after a healthy stretch run with the Oilers where he’s creating chem and posting crooked numbers.

  3. Ducey says:

    I think he is going to Nashville. They won’t go after Carter/ Nash as will LA/ TOR/NYR.

    Blum seems the obvious target. He has struggled a little this season but is a great skater – always something that EDM likes. He has also played top 4 minutes and even some playoff games.

    Blum and a 1st too much? Maybe Blum and one of the hundred big bodies NASH has in their system. Blum and Taylor Beck would be nice.

  4. godot10 says:

    Yzerman likely had a bidding war between Chicago and Detroit for Quincey, which is the reason he got a first. Crazy Colorado wanted Downie, doubling down on their Varlamov gambit.

  5. Lowetide says:

    Godot: That 1st Yzerman got in a weak draft year may never play in the NHL. I don’t know what the odds are that he’ll be better than Quincey but Holland made a helluva deal. Again.

  6. OilClog says:

    Only thing I want is a signed Hemsky, there is no winning trade available now, or future. The best trade is signing a contract and continue building. There are going to be defensive pieces available ufa, there’s a 100 goalies with Elliot potential, and nothing to replace a Hemsky.

  7. godot10 says:

    What about Joel Ward and a pick for Hemsky. A tough minutes winger with some size to play with Horcorff and Smyth.

  8. hunter1909 says:

    There is no logic behind a contending team trading a “roster player” for another team’s UFA.

    Hemsky is going to sign, on the dotted line, just before the deadine. Just a feeling, and could very well be 100% wrong – as in “wtf do I know?” wrong.

    Great game last night, am surprised no one remembers. That was the future of the team to beat oilers we saw last night. Taylor Hall bullying everyone, Pajaarvi looking like another player altogether from earlier this season; and wow, that must have been the first time I really noticed Petry – who looks like a pretty good defenceman.

    Even Horcoff looked like he plays for the team.

    And Hemsky…wtf please tell him to start roving around the ice like he did a few times last night, because he looked brilliant when doing it. The slot is where it’s at, Ales.

  9. ASkoreyko says:

    Godot Joel Ward signed a pretty big contract in Washington last year. 3M * 4 years.

  10. knighttown says:

    You’ve hit on essentially what is the biggest difference between this trade and the countless other deadline deal trades that have happened over the years. If the Oilers have finally said “enough” bullets for Stu and require a roster player that reduces the likelihood of a trade considerably because, as you say, key roster players don’t get moved very often from contending teams.

    I do wonder about Philly. We know they are going for it based on their recent moves but they have 5 or 6 babies playing forward for them every night not even counting Giroux. I bet you dollars to donuts Holmgren won’t go into the playoffs with Sean Couturier, Jacob Voracek, Wayne Simmonds, Brayden Schenn, Matt Read and James Van Riemsdyk all playing key minutes. Boston would beat them in 4 and they know it.

  11. D says:

    I don’t see moving Hemsky as being a good thing for the Oilers.

  12. godot10 says:

    ASkoreyko:
    Godot Joel Ward signed a pretty big contract in Washington last year. 3M * 4 years.

    Eager and Ward fill the gap to Hamilton and Pitlick. Ward’s contract is not a killer. I think he has more offence than he has show in the chaos that has been Washington this year. If Hamrlik is being moved out, maybe McPhee is considering getting younger Brouwer has to be re-signed in a year.

    Ward might be a roster player that might be available that would be a good fit for the Oilers.

    McPhee gets a cheap look at Hemsky to see what chemistry there might or might not be between Alex and Ales.

  13. DSF says:

    If the Oilers don’t sign or trade Hemsky before the deadline, ALL the leverage is then in Hemsky’s corner.

    Unless the team gives in to his demands, whatever they might be, all they can likely expect is a second round pick for negotiating rights before July 1st.

    If Tambellini can’t resolve this by Monday, and each passing day makes it seem less likely as playoff teams find a dance partner, the Oilers are going to be forced into another Horcoffian contract or watch Hemsky walk.

    Anything with a cap hit above $5M and a term longer than three years will be a massive overpay and the team could be hamstrung by the contract for the duration if Hemsky’s health and performance are similar to the past three years and I would assume that’s exactly what most GM’s will consider.

    In other news, Erik Karlsson has 1G and 2A halfway through the second period against Washington.

    That’s 60 points…did I mention he’s 21 and a defenseman?

    Jeebus.

  14. ASkoreyko says:

    godot10: Eager and Ward fill the gap to Hamilton and Pitlick.Ward’s contract is not a killer.I think he has more offence than he has show in the chaos that has been Washington this year.If Hamrlik is being moved out, maybe McPhee is considering getting younger Brouwer has to be re-signed in a year.

    Ward might be a roster player that might be available that would be a good fit for the Oilers.

    McPhee gets a cheap look at Hemsky to see what chemistry there might or might not be between Alex and Ales.

    Dont get me wrong, I would welcome a player of Ward’s ability. I am not crazy about the dollars or term but he would be a great RW’er for Horcoff and Smyth (however that might be the most expensive 3rd line in the NHL).

    I just always think about the implications of a player signing a new UFA deal with a team only to be traded the same season. Supposedly leaves a bad taste in some players mouths.

  15. matmik says:

    Framing the argument as either keep him or trade him for 10 cent on the dollar is very disingenuous.

    The choices are clear: 5.5X4 yrs or trade him for good young D man (blum/schenn/smith) – Keeping him past the deadline would be a disastrous scenario. There is ZERO chance they sign him after the season. He will be the top a FA forward, he’ll get a major deal. Everyone on this blog will be crying about “whale hunting” in 3 months. I fail to see how over paying for Hemsky isn’t “whale hunting”.

    The franchise is much better off tanking the rest of the season (trading Hemsky for D help) and drafting one of the Russians.

  16. Brett Gee says:

    So, do they still do the ol’ ‘sign and trade’ these days? Seems like that would make another team more interested if they knew that they had him locked up. Though, I understand that he could be a risk to anyone long term because of his injury history.

    But still, would not a signed Hemsky have a better shot at getting that roster player that they’re looking for?

  17. DSF says:

    Brett Gee:
    So, do they still do the ol’ ‘sign and trade’ these days?Seems like that would make another team more interested if they knew that they had him locked up.Though, I understand that he could be a risk to anyone long term because of his injury history.

    But still, would not a signed Hemsky have a better shot at getting that roster player that they’re looking for?

    All depends on what they sign him for.

    And, of course, most playoff teams are looking for a rental since a player signed long term has cap implications next season.

    That scenario might actually shrink the market.

  18. Captain Obvious says:

    I’m trying to get my head around Godot’s idea that the Oilers should sign Eberle to a 7 year/49 million RFA contract (buying out two UFA years) and hence don’t have space for Hemsky cap wise.

    Doing so would violate two fundamental principles of hockey contracts.

    First, a restricted free agent does not get compensated like an actual free agent. There is a discount built into all RFA contracts.

    Second, long term contracts transfer risk from the player to the team. The team has no incentive to sign a long term contract to a player they already control unless they are getting a discount built into the contract.

    The result of these axiomatic premises is that RFA contracts are always for significantly less than the same player would get if they were UFA’s and able to go to the highest bidder. Under these conditions in order to sign Eberle to a $7 M contract the UFA valuation of Eberle would have to be significantly higher than $7M/season. But Eberle is not worth $7 M now and it is pretty unlikely that he ever will be worth $7 M a season. Even if he were worth $7 M on the open market that would only mean that the Oilers should give him something like 7/35 million.

    That said, I expect that Godot is right and the Oilers are planning on doing something like that.

  19. Lowetide says:

    ALL of the power is in Hemsky’s hands NOW! I don’t think the Oilers weaken themselves by passing on santorum in the hopes of signing 83.

  20. VOR says:

    I think we have just seen two contracts that pretty much narrow the range of dollars Hemsky might be expecting and also the term.

    Krejci, who has 70 goals over the period he has been in the NHL to Hemsky’s 69 over the same time period (and yes I know Hemsky did it in far fewer games since this includes all his injury filled years and is the better goal scorer) got $5.25 for 3 years.

    Tuomo Ruutu who over the years they have been in the NHL has played forty games more than Hemsky has and scored 15 more goals but has 111 less assists and just got $4.75 over 4 years.

    Hemsky’s value has to be very close to the midpoint.

  21. DSF says:

    Lowetide:
    ALL of the power is in Hemsky’s hands NOW! I don’t think the Oilers weaken themselves by passing on santorum in the hopes of signing 83.

    Hemsky gets more leverage LT because the Oilers can’t trade him.

    No one is going to give the Oilers much for him after the season just before he hits UFA status.

  22. matmik says:

    Lowetide,

    LT – would you sign him tomorrow for 5.5/5??

  23. VOR says:

    Damn, I was wrong, Krejci had 62 goals at the time he signed. Hemsky with 68 in same time period. He must be worth more than $5.25 M for three. Maybe $5.5 for 3 is actually reasonable.

  24. Lowetide says:

    matmik:
    Lowetide,

    LT – would you sign him tomorrow for 5.5/5??

    No. I don’t like the 5 years. I know some are saying 6 by 6 but I wouldn’t go 5 or 6 years.

  25. justDOit says:

    If he’s going to accept a shorter term, as has been rumoured, then he’ll need to see a bump in dollars. 3 x $6 sounds about right then.

    So if he really wants to be a part of dynasty II, do you negotiate a hand-shake deal and then trade him? Getting a 1st and a prospect for him, and then signing him on July 1 would be a big-balz move.

  26. godot10 says:

    Captain Obvious,

    Actually, a 7-year contract extension would be 3 UFA years.

    Cap inflation has been 5% per year. As a percentage of the cap, Kane and Toews contracts would be the equivalent of $7 million dollar contracts next year, consuming 2 UFA years. Tavares, as a percentage of the cap, $5.8 million in next years dollars (2 UFA years), Stamkos (2 years cap inflation), equivalent to about a $7.7 million dollar contract after next season. If Tampa were buying 3 UFA years as I am hoping the Oilers do for the three guys, his contract would be over $8 million per year next years dollars.

    And Taylor Hall worth 4 1st round draft picks to somebody?

    If you want to attract an elite defenseman, the three young guys have to be signed sealed and delivered for an extended period.

    What was the point of this suffering if Hall and gang get to test UFA status in the minimum?

    If you go cheap and go two years on the 2nd contract, then they can go arbitration in the remaining two years and be UFA in the minimum seven. If these are the franchise guys, you have to try locking up 3 UFA years in the 2nd contract. Anything else is making this whole rebuild process a farce, and the suffering pointless.

  27. DSF says:

    VOR:
    Damn, I was wrong, Krejci had 62 goals at the time he signed. Hemsky with 68 in same time period. He must be worth more than $5.25 M for three. Maybe $5.5 for 3 is actually reasonable.

    Krejci is almost 4 years younger than Hemsky and has averaged 78 games played over the last three seasons.

    Hemsky may have better career numbers but Krejci has more than 3 seasons to surpass them and, of course, Hemsky’s numbers don’t mean much when he’s not playing.

  28. VOR says:

    Godot,

    So Hall is as good a player as Steve Stamkos? Nobody offer sheeted him or Doughty.

    You are also assuming salary cap inflation continues at 5% even though a new CBA is in negotiation which isn’t a given. But lets run with it and say inflation lives up to your expectation and we extend Eberle and Hall at the end of 2013-2014. Now they are getting $8.04 M each. However, the salary cap will be $72.5 M. So each guy is getting 11% of our cap space.

    By your argument by the end of their 7 year deals the salary cap will be $102,000,000. So they start of at 11% of available space in year one and end up at roughly 8% each at the end. Neither means we can’t afford them,even if they turn out to be Kane and Toews, which we don’t know yet.

    Lets try it this way.

  29. stevezie says:

    DSF,

    I agree, Krejci has more value than Hemsk; he sets Hemsky’s ceiling. Krejci is a cup winner and a number one center, in what universe does Hemsky get more than him? If Hemsky is somewhere between him and Ruttu in term and money (and he should be), we’ll get a contract everyone can live with.
    I’m a Hemsky fan and I think this 6×6 talk is insane. how does Hemsky get more than Krejci? How could Hemsky’s agent justify it? Getting paid the same as Krejci is an overpay, which makes sense because we’re the Edmonton Oilers and while Hemmer might want to stay, I’m sure he’s willing to go win for awhile too.

  30. Captain Obvious says:

    godot10,

    Except Eberle isn’t nearly as good as Tavares or (certainly) Toews. If you add 5% to Tavares contract for two years I get just over $6M. That puts the upper bound of an Eberle contract at 6/36 which is well short of your 7/49 and that is if you are working off of the mistaken idea that Eberle is Tavares equal as a player. Even if he is Tavares equal as a player I don’t see what benefit the team gets for adding a seventh year at free market dollars. I see the incentive from the player’s perspective but I don’t see what the team gets. If I’m adding a seventh year I want a discount since I’m taking all of the risk.

    I think a lot of the disagreement stems that you seem to think that Eberle is in this class of player while I only think that Hall is. If he scores 40 goals this year and next then we can see about giving him Tavares money. Right now I think it is premature.

  31. DSF says:

    stevezie:
    DSF,

    I agree, Krejci has more value than Hemsk; he sets Hemsky’s ceiling. Krejci is a cup winner and a number one center, in what universe does Hemsky get more than him? If Hemsky is somewhere between him and Ruttu in term and money (and he should be), we’ll get a contract everyone can live with.
    I’m a Hemsky fan and I think this 6×6 talk is insane. how does Hemsky get more than Krejci? How could Hemsky’s agent justify it? Getting paid the same as Krejci is an overpay, which makes sense because we’re the Edmonton Oilers and while Hemmer might want to stay, I’m sure he’s willing to go win for awhile too.

    Exactly what I think.

    Given Hemsky’s recent injury history and production, his market value is likely around $4.5M but it wouldn’t hurt the Oilers to go $5M on three years.

    This contract could define Tambellini’s tenure since we can’t pin Horcoff and Khabibulin on him.

  32. matmik says:

    Lowetide,

    He’s going to get that in free agency – I’m sure his agent is telling him this. Unless he takes a home town discount, that’s the deal. So you’re suggesting they shouldn’t trade him and hope for the best in June?? There is no way in June its not going to take 5.5 for 5 – Trading him really is your only option.

  33. VOR says:

    Hey DSF/STEVEZIE, so now we are saying regardless of production games played matter. So a player who plays 59 games and has 6 goals and 21 assists is more valuable than a guy who plays 47 games and gets 14 goals and 28 assists? Interesting concept!

    In fact Krejci at the time of signing had 62 goals and 165 assists in his NHL career, in the same time a badly injured Hemsky had 68 goals and 149 assists.

    To say Krejci is worth more you are using the “he won a cup” argument. So did Ben Eager.

    Maybe it is the youth part. Goals count more when you are young. Maybe they count more because you are a center. Maybe they count more because you play on a good team. Maybe they count more because you play soft minutes.

    Not sure which of these things you guys believe. None of them make sense for two guys in the middle of their careers.

    DSF is on record as saying goals = dollars of cap hit, no exceptions. He always includes centers in his numbers and never allows for age. Ales Hemsky’s most goals in a single season 23 2008-2009. David Krejci most goals in a season = 23 in 2008-2009. So which is it? Hemsky is worth less than Krejci or you were wrong about dollars for cap hit?

    Stevezie, Youth may matter if one guy is at the end of his career. Both these guys are going to play years more than the next 3 years. Do you really think having the good fortune to play soft minutes on a good team makes you a better player than a guy who plays hard minutes on a bad team?

  34. Lowetide says:

    matmik:
    Lowetide,

    He’s going to get that in free agency – I’m sure his agent is telling him this. Unless he takes a home town discount, that’s the deal. So you’re suggesting they shouldn’t trade him and hope for the best in June?? There is no way in June its not going to take 5.5 for 5 – Trading him really is your only option.

    I’m sure Hemsky will get paid. I also think there has to be some preference for the player to stay, and a three or four year deal is possible. That’s what I would prefer. You seem to be framing the issue in a way that there’s “no way out”–if that were the case the Hemsky verbal would be far different than it is at this time.

  35. godot10 says:

    VOR,

    I don’t think you understand cap inflation. $7 million for seven years signed next years is nearly a 10% less percentage of the cap than Stamkos’s and Doughty’s $7 million signed two years earlier.

    If Stamkos and Doughty were to sign the same contract next year in percentage of cap terms, it would be $7.7 million in next years dollars.

    $7 million for 7 years next year for Hall is roughly 10% less than Stamkos’s as a percentage of the cap, with 2 more UFA years included in Hall’s deal. I don’t think that is an unreasonable expectation to budget for Hall and Eberle after next season. 10% less salary (as a % of cap) than Stamkos with 2 more UFA years than Stamkos. It is significantly less than what Stamkos got.

  36. knighttown says:

    I’m in the crowd that would make 83 your best offer and give him until Saturday to accept. If he doesn’t you’ve got to move him.

  37. DSF says:

    VOR:
    Hey DSF/STEVEZIE, so now we are saying regardless of production games played matter. So a player who plays 59 games and has 6 goals and 21 assists is more valuable than a guy who plays 47 games and gets 14 goals and 28 assists? Interesting concept!

    In fact Krejci at the time of signing had 62 goals and 165 assists in his NHL career, in the same time a badly injured Hemsky had 68 goals and 149 assists.

    To say Krejci is worth more you are using the “he won a cup” argument. So did Ben Eager.

    Maybe it is the youth part. Goals count more when you are young. Maybe they count more because you are a center. Maybe they count more because you play on a good team. Maybe they count more because you play soft minutes.

    Not sure which of these things you guys believe. None of them make sense ofr two guys in the middle of their careers.

    DSF is on record as saying goals = dollars of cap hit, no exceptions. He always includes centers in his numbers and never allows for age. Ales Hemsky’s most goals in a single season 23 2008-2009. David Krejci most goals in a season = 23 in 2008-2009. So which is Hemsky is worth less than Krejci or you were wrong about dollars for cap hit?

    Stevezie, Youth may matter is one guy is at the end of his career. Both these guys are going to play years more than the next 3 years. Do you really think having the good fortune to play soft minutes on a good team makes you a better player than a guy who plays hard minutes on a bad team?

    Of course games played matter.

    One of the memes for re-signing Hemsky is that he can shelter Eberle. He can’t shelter Eberle from the press box. Hemsky hasn’t played a full season since 05/06 so any sane person is going to discount his next contract for that factor.

    You’re also hung up on “when the contract was signed” which is a red herring here since Krejci is considerably younger than Hemsky and should still have upside while I think we’ve already seen Hemsky’s upside.

    Any good GM is also going to look at Hemsky’s numbers this season (5G , 21A, 26P) and discount him even further.

    Krejci currently has 12 G and 28A for 41 points.

    There is just no way around how mediocre Hemsky has been this season.

    I’d wager if Tambellini offered Hemsky for Krejci straight up, Chiarelli would piss himself laughing.

  38. Tim K says:

    There are some similarities here between Hemsky’s situation and the Devils and Zach Parise. If the Devils are willing to risk not getting a return for pending UFA Parise then the Oilers should not really concern themselves with making sure they receive a return that does not properly compensate them for a player of Hemsky’s ability.

    If the Oilers are able to come to reasonable terms with Hemsky they can always look to move him in the furture when his value is more certain.

  39. DSF says:

    Colorado leading LAK 4-0 in the second.

    Might be a good time to give Deano a call Steve.

  40. regwald says:

    DSF,

    Gold old Stevo is the buffet line at Buffet World – way too busy deciding on the dry ribs vs baby back ribs to even check his BB to know the score or even try to make a trade.

    Now if Deano is desperate and disturb Steve before dessert, who knows what could happen ??

  41. DSF says:

    Tim K:
    There are some similarities here between Hemsky’s situation and the Devils and Zach Parise.If the Devils are willing to risk not getting a return for pending UFA Parise then the Oilers should not really concern themselves with making sure they receive a return that does not properly compensate them for a player of Hemsky’s ability.

    If the Oilers are able to come to reasonable terms with Hemsky they can always look to move him in the furture when his value is more certain.

    There’s a huge difference in the situations.

    New Jersey is on financial life support (being funded by the NHL) and desperately need playoff revenue.

    And the question isn’t coming to reasonable terms with Hemsky, the question is, what happens if the Oilers can’t?

    He walks. For nothing.

  42. stevezie says:

    matmik,

    Hemsky is not getting 5×5.5. Recent injury history X bad stats in a contract year = dissapointed agent. I think he could get a pricey short deal, or cozy term that insulates the team, but in the same summer that Parise, Carter, Nash, Semin, Jokinen, even Whitney, and maybe Grabovski are all at least somewhat available Ales Hemsky is not breaking anyone’s bank. He’s my favourite player and I feel bad for him, but timing has never been on his side.

    VOR,

    When it comes to contracts absolutely games played matter. I think we all know if Hemsky played 70 games in each of the last three seasons he would be looking at 6 million plus, easy. I think that people who try to argue that his injuries make him unsignable are idiots, but it has to figure into how much you want to bet on him.
    You’re right, Hemsky played tougher comp with lesser teammates and produced at the same level as Krejci. Krejci, however, just lead the cup-winning team in playoff scoring. He is not Ben Eager- he is a key cog in a successful team. The Bruins have something they don’t want to screw up, not matter how good Hemsky is the Oilers can’t say that.

    I completely agree that Hemsky has a higher ceiling than David Krejci. Hemsky is one of the top ten (if not better) stickhandlers in the league who can drive a bad line to success against top competition. He also has a much, much more disatrous worst-case scenario. I think most player’s salaries are based in a combination of those two factors.
    You’re right, Krejci’s age doesn’t give him much of an edge on Hemsky, but I think it is worth just a little. All this adds up to Hemsky topping out at Krejci’s salary. If Hemsky is also worried about his injury history and want a comforting term, he’s going to have to help the team out on cap-hit.
    The Oilers know him and need him. The Oilers have cap space. The Oilers’ trouble attracting free-agents limits their other options. This is a decent summer for offensive help being on the move. I don’t think Hemsky can hope for much more than what the Oilers should be offering him, which is David Krejci money.

  43. Traktor says:

    Trade Hemsky and then offer him a contract July 1st.

  44. DSF says:

    Traktor:
    Trade Hemsky and then offer him a contract July 1st.

    This makes the most sense unless he gets his nose out of joint for not getting what he wants now.

  45. VOR says:

    Godot,

    You said that the cap has been going up 5% a year. Thus, Kane ane Toews signed for 11% of the then cap max in 2009-2010 when it was $56.8 million. Their $6.3 cap hit was 11.09% each. Today the max cap is $64.3 M which is actually 4.25% inflation. So Kane and Toews are now each eating 9.8% of the max cap in Chicago. When Eberle and Hall sign for 11.9% the correct cap hit (from 4.25% inflation) they will each be around $7.7 M for 7 years the number you got. But that is no more than Kane and Toews cost Chicago. Both salaries and max cap are moving up at the same inflationary rate. So if my 4.25% inflation is right they will each be being paid $7.7 milliion dollars and the cap hit will be $86 M. Had your 5% been right them starting at $56.8 in 2009-2010 by the end of the 7 year contracts the max cap will be $102 M. Inflation is like interest it is compound. So 56.8M * 1.05 for 12 years.

  46. DSF says:

    Hemsky wants 4-5 years.

    The latest from Matheson:

    http://tinyurl.com/7gz8tgu

  47. rickithebear says:

    Godot10: 7M for a 20G scorer? maybe 30G. Oh thats right 5m for a 15G scorer.

  48. VOR says:

    DSF, Stevezie,

    So you really believe games played matter more than total goals, points, or assists? Well good luck with that.

    You both understand that Ruttu’s worst year is 15 games played with 2 goals 3 assists 5 points and Hemsky’s is 22 games 7 goals 15 assists and 22 points. So injury wise Hemsky is better than Ruttu. So then why wouldn’t Hemsky expect more than Ruttu exactly? Oh wait Ruttu has won a cup, that must be worth something? I guess that is it. Pisani hits a goal post and Hemsky becomes a worse player. Interesting rational there. 4 points in 16 playoff games and a cup versus 17 points in 24 and losing.

    Yes Krejci was 23 points in 25 games and a win and Hemsy was 17 points in 24 games in a 7th game loss but to suggest that creates some sort of yawning gulf is a bit over heated. Especially given that Hemsky is a much greater playoff performer than Ruutu and yet saying he is worth far less than Krejci puts him below Ruutu a guy to whom he is clearly superior.

  49. Traktor says:

    DSF:
    Hemsky wants 4-5 years.

    The latest from Matheson:

    http://tinyurl.com/7gz8tgu

    Its kind of funny that Horcoff is telling the media that Edmonton should sign Hemsky when his ungodly contract (5.5M for another 3 years) is one of the reasons why Stauffer is arguing that Edmonton doesn’t have the cap flexibility to sign Hemsky.

    Who knew?

  50. stevezie says:

    I’d do 4 for 20. I keep going back to replacing Hemsky: who’s gonna do it? As Lou Lam said a few times: it’s never an overpay when you’re getting something you need. We need a Hemsky- and for crying out loud Gomez got traded! Gomez! Can we stop pretending we’ll be hopelessly stuck with this contract if things go bad?
    I might even panic and do 4 for 22, but I’ll admit I wouldn’t want to.

  51. DSF says:

    Traktor: Its kind of funny that Horcoff is telling the media that Edmonton should sign Hemsky when his ungodly contract (5.5M for another 3 years) is one of thereasons why Stauffer is arguing that Edmonton doesn’t have the cap flexibility to sign Hemsky.

    Who knew?

    Just one union brother supporting another.

  52. stevezie says:

    VOR,

    What the hell are you talking about? Who said games played matter the most? Who even said they matter almost as much as points? I said they matter. They clearly matter, you know they matter, we all know they matter; not one person on this board thinks that the only thing that factors into a contract is PPG.
    Let’s keep in mind that Ruttu’s abbreviated season was seven years ago. Seven. Hensky followed two severe injury plagued seasons with the his worst stats year since the lockout. You know what you’re getting from Ruttu, Hemsky still has some question marks. If Hemsky wants to get paid like the guy who was force in the playoffs he needs to prove he still is that guy. Krejci has had no major injuries since he LEAD HIS TEAM IN SCORING as they won the cup. Ask Pisani if timing affects contracts- don’t bother. You know it does, so do I, so does everyone.
    Obviously Hemsky’s better than Ruttu, I’m pretty choked that Ruttu signed for that much. That’s his salary floor. Explain to me how he’s better than Krejci? You’ve made a decent argument that’s he’s as good as Krejci, but how is he better? All I was every saying is Hemsky deserves Krejci money. If think he deserves more despite being a riskier bet I want to know why. You mentioned he has more responsibility on his team, I’ll say that maybe balances out the risk. Where does more money come from?

    Oh, and I don’t think it really matters much, but Ruttu never won a cup. Starting next season he’s overpaid.

  53. NOTB says:

    That Matheson article is depressing… seems the die is cast, and once again another gem is about to be tossed aside for magic beans and future dreams. Better managed organizations don’t get themselves boxed into these situations.

  54. PerryK says:

    I am going to just say this:

    There is no way that we can justify getting rid of Hemsky and search this summer for half the player at twice the price! Okay, a slight bit of hyperbole, but really! Ruutu just signed for 4.XX Million and term!!!!

    We don’t have any one to play #2 RW on our roster or in the system. All that we can hope for is to acquire one this summer. Look at who is available in the UFA pool, or who you may be able to shake loose in any logical trade that may be at the age and the value that we would pay Hemsky! Disappointingly poor choices.

    Gregor has made my point probably better than I can. Look at his arguments for further clarity.

    I listen to other Oiler fans and all that I hear (and it is a very loud cacophony) is that we are trying to flimflam our way to get rid of a past expiry date asset. It is frustrating trying to explain that what we receive will be far less than fair value. We are set up to be screwed over by a crafty GM.

    The only exception that I can visualize is Brendan Smith. The value would be about equal if we squint our eyes just right and consider the future wearing glasses a paler shade of Rose.

    Thank you for all the memories, “Pardubice Prince” ™. We will miss you after you are gone!

  55. hunter1909 says:

    Everyone agrees that “Tambellini’s Terrors” had better have some kind of a plan, which assuming is to blow next season and let Darwinism take it’s course with the young lineup…well, that’s not a terrible idea when top ranked draft picks(McKinnon next year anyone?) are possible. Otherwise, the team moves forward next year, basically 1 year behind my own expectations; 2 actually when I think they’re a 6th place team.

    Sighs.

    I hope Traktor’s getting airplay over at Rexall Place, because sucking up to any of these agent-driven assholes gets the oiler’s nowhere.

    PS: Hemsky can stay in E-Town if he truly desires. if he does leave, I hope I don’t end up in some kind of Pat Laforge style “former oilers” lynch mob. Hillbilly blood can do that to a person.

  56. Traktor says:

    Teemu Hartikainen with 1g,1a +2 tonight.

    I wouldn’t be surprised if he is moved before the deadline. Tambellini and Renney do not seem to value him much and he was a KP pick and picks from the previous regime are usually the first to be sold.

    He has some nice skills though. If it was my choice I would play him with NHL skill and move one of our forwards for help on D or G.

    I hope the plan isn’t to wait another 3 years for Bunz.

    Bulin has played well this year but he is pretty much done and Dubnyk is no better than Conkkanen.

  57. Lewis Grant says:

    Two questions:

    1. When do you get more value out of signing a UFA vs. re-signing a player? (my guess: almost never).

    2. How much cap inflation is due to real increased revenues, and how much cap inflation is due to the increase in the value of the Canadian dollar? In years when the Canadian dollar (and thus the cap) goes up, teams go hog wild over free agents (e.g. Rangers for Drury and Gomez). In years when the Canadian dollar stays the same or goes down, the market is somewhat tighter. I think this needs to be the starting point for evaluations of what the UFA market will look like.

  58. Schitzo says:

    godot10: Eager and Ward fill the gap to Hamilton and Pitlick. .

    I notice you keep suggesting we “fill the gap” until the kids are ready. Not sure if this is based off of Tambo’s comments about filling the gap on defence until the prospects are ready, or your own idea. But either way, I think it’s an incredibly dangerous way of planning a roster. If Pitlick or Hamilton can claim a roster spot on merit, that’s terrific. But there’s no guarantee that they’ll turn into NHL players. And if they don’t turn out as you’re predicting, we’re scrambling.

    The only team in recent memory that’s really been forced to shed talent because of cap problems is Chicago, and the moral of that story is be careful with NMCs. Otherwise, you hear all the time that Calgary or Philly or Pittsburgh or Vancouver will have cap problems in the future… and yet they always make it work. That’s the mark of a good GM.

  59. boopronger says:

    Can the Oilers not sign Hemsky to a new deal that has bonuses for games played? Give him his 4-5 years but have something like a 1.5 million dollar bonus if he plays more then 50 games or something. Can someone comment on this scenario? Is this not a possilbilty?

  60. Thinker says:

    Hey LT what do you think about a long deal with hemsky now to try and lower his cost for the future ( like seven years,which would make him 35, at 4- 4.5)
    Then also try to do the same with penner(he fits well with the group his player type is valuable) while their stock is low. We are gonna need value deals to avoid the sell off that happened in chicago. Buy low sell high should be the mantra imo. The cap is always going up so i think long term contracts will become more of a bargain soon with hall/rnh/gags/ebs/mps/ect.

  61. bill needle says:

    You think the rank-and-file Oilers fan loathes Hemsky now? Just wait till he gets that $5-6 million/year that commenters here say he’s worth. It will be about a nanosecond before someone yelps out “We’re paying $5 million for a guy who might hit 35 points this season?”
    You can quote all the stats and all the injuries until you’re blue and orange in the face, but those people won’t listen.
    Don’t worry about him going to Detroit or Chicago and suddenly becoming a 90-point man. He won’t get the ice time to do it. The only reason why Hemsky’s a first-liner on Edmonton is that the Oilers are so terrible. Oilers’ coaches have no choice but to put him on the first line and the top power play unit because there’s no other choice. Management employs wastes of space up front for five seasons and Hemsky’s been the beneficiary off all that PP time without any competition, until Eberle’s emergence.
    Put Hemsky in Detroit and he’ll have to slug it out with the Jiri Hudlers and Darren Helms of the world for second power play time and a spot on the second line. Welcome to the 40-point plateau.
    Play with Datsyuk or Zetterberg? Forget it. They’re doing fine without him.

  62. Noodles says:

    boopronger,

    I think Brownlee addressed that possibility over at Oilersnation in this article . He suggested that it wouldn’t work under the current CBA.

  63. boopronger says:

    Noodles,

    Thanks noods

  64. oilersfan says:

    WHile I am holding out hope to “expect the unexpected” and the Oilers sign Hemsky, I wonder if Philly would be in the mix. Jagr has long admired Hemsky’s skills, and Philly seems to always have this “win now” mentality. I know it sounds nuts but they always believe they can sign any RFA/UFA sent theire way (and they really do sign them.) Long list of roster players they would have to get rid of to make space…Voracek would make sense as a bigger winger to play with Gagner/Hall, who knows maybe last year’s Hemsky for Brayden Schenn rumours get going again. Wouldn’t it be a gas Hemsky plus our second for Couturier?

    One needs to dream, anyways…

  65. commonfan14 says:

    I doubt anyone here would be comfortable wagering $1000 of his own money that Hemsky will even finish this season without another injury knocking him out of the line-up, and yet some want the team to gamble $30+ million of cap space on him over the next 5-6 years. If they could go back in time to just after Hemsky’s post-deadline season-ender and make this pitch to themselves, I bet their 2011 selves would punch them in the face.

    Or maybe their younger selves would be patient enough to let them explain what an amazing 2011-12 season Hemsky was having that would justify the proposed deal. Surely this must mean that 2011-12 Hemsky had thrived with the young guns and finally broke through with that 90 point season we’ve all been waiting for since 2006. That must be it, right? Right?

    I’ve been a huge Hemmer fan, but for me that injury was a breaking point. I will never trust him to stay healthy ever again, and my dreams of that 90-point season have been dashed forever.

    To me, that takes big money and long years permanently out of the equation. Others may still feel that he has 80 game and 90 point seasons ahead of him, but I don’t think the Oilers can afford to be that romantic about things.

    And again – $30+ million and 5-6 years?!!! What would we be signing him for if he’d averaged 75 games and 70 points the last three years? What if he was 5 years younger and clearly still had his best years ahead of him instead of 6 years behind him?

    His ceiling is much lower now than when he signed his current contract. We can’t afford to pay him for things he hasn’t done and likely never will do.

  66. Schitzo says:

    commonfan14: I doubt anyone here would be comfortable wagering $1000 of his own money that Hemsky will even finish this season without another injury knocking him out of the line-up, and yet some want the team to gamble $30+ million of cap space on him over the next 5-6 years. .

    commonfan14,

    As long as he’s willing to sign without a NMC, the only thing at risk is the owner’s money. I genuinely don’t see the downside to that, and it’s the type of move that Katz should be excited to make because it gives us an edge over teams who can’t afford to bury their mistakes.

    Best case, he’s worth it, the cap keeps going up, and we keep him for the whole contract.
    Middle ground, he produces reasonably well but in year three or four we need the cap space and trade him to another team for a pick or prospect.
    Worst case, down to OKC he goes.

    There’s no scenario where we actually have serious cap space at risk.

    If I was Hemsky, I would hold a press conference at the airport on my way out of town. “Five years go, they told me that what happened to Smytty would never happen to me. Lesson learned. I look forward to seeing the excuse when they trade Taylor Hall in five more years. Taylor, don’t buy a house here just yet.”

  67. bookje says:

    commonfan14:
    I doubt anyone here would be comfortable wagering $1000 of his own money that Hemsky will even finish this season without another injury knocking him out of the line-up,

    I am pretty sure that WoodGuy would – I hear that he sometimes even bets on preseason games calling them a ‘sure thing’.

  68. Tim K says:

    DSF: There’s a huge difference in the situations.

    New Jersey is on financial life support (being funded by the NHL) and desperately need playoff revenue.

    And the question isn’t coming to reasonable terms with Hemsky, the question is, what happens if the Oilers can’t?

    He walks. For nothing.

    If Hemsky walks for nothing how much have the Oilers really lost in terms of the compensation that has been offered? Not even a roster player apparently. The same could be said for NJ, regardless of the financial situation they have the opportunity to make progress in the playoffs and extend their bargaining window. Extending the bargaining window with Hemsky has value and it should not be looked at as simply letting him walk for nothing.

  69. Tim K says:

    Sorry about the continuous quote. I was not sure how to differentiate my text from DSF’s.

  70. spoiler says:

    Fear and Greed need to find some common ground, a meeting place, a price point that satisfies both parties.

    If there’s no transaction, Fear can assuage itself by exchanging Greed and the talent it represents for cheaper assets. Greed can assuage itself by exchanging Fear and the power it represents with the open market, maximizing return. If Fear does so, it is not left with nothing but trades the known for the unknown… now for later. If Greed does so, it is not left with nothing, but it too risks getting less, as it also trades the known for the unknown, here for elsewhere.

    The most important thing right now is that the two sides are still negotiating. I hope they can find a common price point they both can live with. I think the term risk is exaggerated, but I’m not the one making the commitment. We’ll see. The future is not determined either way. Yet.

    This one of the most interesting situations I’ve ever experienced as an Oiler fan. Pretty neat, all in all.

  71. Jonathan Willis says:

    If you can’t get Hemsky signed by the deadline, you trade him, in my opinion. There’s five days left and the Oilers should know what they’re willing to pay and not willing to pay. If you can’t get Hemsky to a number you can live with, he needs to go while teams are still willing to part with something.

    I’d prefer to see him signed – there’s no UFA replacement riding into town this summer and this team can’t afford to take a step back – but if you can’t sign him, you can’t sign him.

    Also, on dollars, Hemsky would be an idiot to sign for a penny less than Tuomo Ruutu signed for today. The UFA crop is lousy this year; if the Oilers let him walk he’s either going to get paid or do a Hossa-style move and sign a cheap deal with a contender.

  72. VOR says:

    Stevezie,

    David Krejcie, 3C, 3C, 1C, 2C in four years in the NHL. My bad on Ruutu but why ever Boston signed Krejci is wasnt to be their 1C. Begeron is the 1C and Seguin is about to pass Krejci.

    Lets try it this way. Exactly how much value are we to place on each game played. Since games played matter so much to you, since it is the entire essence of your argument against Hemsky deserving a big payday? How much are we discounting for each missed game?

    I am beginning to see some relationship between the Hemsky is the first guy off the ice critics and the he is always injured critics. His production over the time Krejci has been in the NHL is more goals in absolute terms and almost as many assists. This while he has been hurt. If he recovers, as you admit, Hemsky has the greater upside. If he doesn’t recover he is still going to be as good as Krejci because he has been while injured.

    All the Hemsky haters are taking one season where he is recovering from surgery and wasn’t expected to be 100% until January and is playing amongst the toughest minutes of any RW with teammates who are crap and a career low shooting precentage and PDO and saying he’s a bum. Based on 1 season. My point about Ruutu is he also had a bad season due to injury, really bad. So what. I often get the feeling that many of the Hemsky is shit people want to count this seasons points per games and last seasons games played as if they happened in the same season.

    Then we have the entire won a cup thing. So going to game seven and losing makes you a lesser player than playing on the winning side. So fate reaches out and curses you and somehow this should determine a player’s worth. My point, and I admit I made it badly, is that if winning a cup is worth so much then why on earth wouldn’t going to game seven of the finals be worth something. Krejci played great, better than Hemsky but not by an insane amount.

    So Ruutu didn’t win a cup, plays RW, gets hurts a lot (and is hurt right now) and gets $4.75 million dollars for 4 years. Hemsky came within a goal of a Stanely Cup where he played very well, is hurt a lot but healthy now, produces far more offence than Ruutu in absolute terms never mind per game, and gets X. Solve for X. As I said orginally, before I descended into sarcasm the market price now has to be between Ruutu and Krejci.

    I said, and will say again, I’d offer Hemsky $4.5 M and term with a deal that would make it easy for us to trade him in the summer of 2014. The Oilers probably could have got him for that. But they waited. Now the market has spoken and priced him around $5M for 3 or 4 years.

    The problem with the injury argument the Hemsky bashers keep offering up here is that many players look like they will play every game of their career and then whack, serious injury. In other words there is always some risk of injury and the question becomes how much does Hemsky’s injury history increase his chance of subsequent injury.

    Perhaps Hemsky is Ruutu. His first injury was followed by seasons of 71,77, and 79 games which included his best season or Martin Havlat whose second serious injury (he had a long history of problems) and surgery was followed by seasons of 81, 73, and 78 games and included his best season. Now lets assume Krejci remains healthy, and as I have said there is non-trivial risk he will get hurt being even smaller than Hemsky and already having some nagging little injuries. But even if Krecji plays the exact same number of games the next three years as he did the last 3 years if Hemsky rebounds like either Havlat or Ruutu then the games are at most 9 games different over 3 seasons.

    The problem is we have no idea if Hemsky will rebound like Havlat or Ruutu. Nobody can predict the future. We don’t have the data to even make a smart money bet. He could do even better. Nor can anybody predict what will happen to Krecji. What seems almost certain is that by the end of his current contract he won’t be the #1 center on the Bruins anymore. Because he isn’t this year and he is headed for 3C very soon now. $5.25 M for a 3C. So how much is a 2RW who can play the toughs, outscore the healthy David Krejci while injured himself, and may have an upside in the 90 point range worth?

  73. Ass Moses says:

    Should have.
    Would have.
    Could have.
    Might.

    83 has to go. The asset has to be maximized before it reached zero.

  74. spoiler says:

    If you can’t get Hemsky signed by the deadline, you trade him, in my opinion.

    Absolutely.

  75. VOR says:

    Maximized would have been to trade him in the off season or re-sign him cheap. We are now into two options. Overpay or undersell. The thing is all the Hemsky trash talk by the MSM and bloggers sure hasn’t helped with the possible sale price. Should have, could have, would have driven down the ask price on a contract. Right up until Ruutu. As I just said, Oilers management dithered again.

  76. spoiler says:

    $5.25 for a 3rd line centre? I think the Pittsburgh Penguins would be okay with that. So would the Oilers. And every team Bobby Holik has played for. Can’t remember what Handzus makes this year, or the Canucks 4th line C.

    Just sayin.

    The Oil should be willing to go 5.5M x 5 frontloaded. The player and his value to the team are worth it. Its about the same cost as his present deal, and the term risk is overstated. But that’s my price point.

  77. spoiler says:

    When I think of the Oilers seeming lack of enthusiasm for Penner, Smyth and Hemsky I wonder if they wish they had more kids playing. More roster space.

  78. spoiler says:

    VOR:
    Maximized would have been to trade him in the off season or re-sign him cheap. We are now into two options. Overpay or undersell. The thing is all the Hemsky trash talk by the MSM and bloggers sure hasn’t helped with the possible sale price. Should have, could have, would have driven down the ask price on a contract. Right up until Ruutu. As I just said, Oilers management dithered again.

    I don’t know for sure, but I doubt media affects price significantly. Timing does though. However Hemsky couldn’t have been traded last off-season when he couldn’t pass a physical. But that definitely would have been the time.

  79. art vandelay says:

    If MSM mentions affected price, ellipses would be priceless thanks to Jim Matheson using up the world’s supply.

  80. stevezie says:

    VOR,

    I don’t know why we’re fighting; I agree with pretty much everything you said.

    I think Krejci is a good comparison because, like Hesmky, kids are changing his job description. When Seguin’s second contract comes up, one of Seguin/Krejci will become a full-time winger, or one will get traded. I don’t see how it goes any other way. If Kreci is Boston’s 2C, and Hemsky is our 2RW, and both guys play a similar role on the team with similar results (even similar heritage), I’d guess they’re going to get paid about the same.
    The fact that no one seems too psyched to trade for Hemsky makes me think no one will be too psyched to sign him either. The current situation is perfect for Hemsky and Edmonton reaching a mutually advantagious deal. I think the only reason it hasn’t happened already is either Hemmer doesn’t really want to stay, or Tambo is waiting until he’s certain he can’t get the trade he wants. Or one of them is being completely unreasonable in contract demands, but because of all the things we’ve both brought up, I really don’t see how anyone could go that far in either direction from Krejci money.

  81. jb says:

    Still pretty sure they’ll get a deal done… It’s huge that Hemsky WANTS to be here, his teammates WANT him here, every fan out there knows we’re better with him than without. The Term and Dollars will bounce back and forth for a while, but it’ll be an EPIC management fail if Hemsky ends up being worth less than another “very good” roster player.

    I really do understand why Lowetide has so little faith in management that most assume they’ll royally screw up this whole Hemsky situation..

    I mean to pay Horcoff big long-term dollars based off Hemsky’s offensive production, then panic and deal him for peanuts a few years later?… It’s simply a fireable offense on managements part.

    I don’t see how any rational employer could put up with that kinda shit. There’s rebuilding, then there’s stupid.

    At least wanting a “roster player” is a tell that we’re looking to get better..

  82. cabbiesmacker says:

    Are there really people who think 6 x 6 is a decent deal for anyone but Ales? If he gets anything close I’ll volunteer to start packing a bowl of fiberglass drapery along with a side of carpet.

    We all have long memories. 29 other prospective GM’s calling ST about Ales won’t have. He’ll be signed per his performance this year….not the eons ago, multiple injury filled seasons since 77.

    Top offer from the Oilers should be no higher than 5.5 for a max of 4 years. Pass it to him along with knowledge that only the Islanders have called, and tell him he has until Saturday at noon to sign it. If he won’t then it’s bon voyage and no more Piccolino’s for you young man.

    On a side note it pisses me off that all it took for TB to get Quincey was Steve Robert Downie Jr. Were you even close to being in on that one Steveo?

  83. Smarmy says:

    Lowetide:
    ALL of the power is in Hemsky’s hands NOW! I don’t think the Oilers weaken themselves by passing on santorum in the hopes of signing 83.

    hahaha this is funnier to me then you probably intended.

  84. Ducey says:

    VOR:
    Maximized would have been to trade him in the off season or re-sign him cheap. We are now into two options. Overpay or undersell. The thing is all the Hemsky trash talk by the MSM and bloggers sure hasn’t helped with the possible sale price. Should have, could have, would have driven down the ask price on a contract. Right up until Ruutu. As I just said, Oilers management dithered again.

    Thats not fair.

    Hemsky was coming off major surgery. His trade value would have been in the toilet. He started this season on IR. The prudent thing to do would be to use this season to this point to see if he recovered from the surgery and would hold up under the rigours of an NHL season.

  85. nathan says:

    “A 1st in a weak draft year? I’d rather take the chance he’ll sign after a healthy stretch run with the Oilers where he’s creating chem and posting crooked numbers”

    Lowetide,

    Two problems with that. You assume the Oilers problem is assigning a value due to the small sample size since full recovery. But they are much closer to the situation than the other teams so they have a temporary advantage at valuation. Like you they may not be willing to go past 4 years and may have a top dollar they will go to. A crooked number run can only decrease the chance of their top bid being unsuccessful. They have a few more days to make their best 3-4 year bid and then they must move on.

    The other problem is the weak draft year. If Eberle can go 22 in a draft, no 1 picks offer better odds than hoping Hemsky’s market value goes down. Draft hype wants lots of forwards chasing down the top 10. But a low 1st round pick from a contender ought to be for a defender. Button: “The defense core of this draft runs well into the second round…At the top end, I think time will tell as far as who becomes the Drew Doughty and Alex Pietrangelo. As far as the depth for defensemen, this is a much deeper defense draft.”

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