Sail On, Bloomington Jaguar

It was a cool morning and I had to get to work early. About 7:40am, as I tooled past the Winks in St. Albert while listening to the radio, news came across my radio that Tommy Salo was a Colorado Avalanche. The return was mentioned, and I may have known a little about Tom Gilbert but it’s safe to say that we all know more about him these years later.

This is sunset on lake Minnetonka. Minnesota is home for Tom Gilbert, although his legend includes a very successful run at the University of Wisconsin where he scored one of the most famous goals in NCAA history. Gilbert arrived in the NHL with the Oilers as a pretty solid hire and quickly established himself as an effective player. He could move the puck by pass or carry, he could hit the tape on the fly with aplomb, he had good instincts in the offensive zone and improved his defense markedly as time wore on. He became a “complete” player type, able to handle the most important minutes in all disciplines for the Edmonton Oilers.

Gilbert became a tougher physical player too, answering critics who suggested early on he was too passive in his own zone. I’m not certain he convincered everyone, and suspect that the Oilers were hesitant to roll 2 pairings at the top of their depth chart with Gilbert and Petry representing 50% of the group.

Sail on, Bloomington Jaguar. We’ll see you down the line.

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126 Responses to "Sail On, Bloomington Jaguar"

  1. mattwatt says:

    I do not know how the Oilers win this trade. A good player left yesterday for an effective one. While this is not the end of the world, it is still a step back.

    Other major issue at hand is that this trade depends a lot on insight from the Oilers pro scouting department. Record of late, yeah, is a bit questionable.

    I am once again scared.

  2. regwald says:

    I said it yesterday, I will say it again today. We received 80 cents on the dollar for this trade. We sent away a good defenceman yesterday and received a good defenceman in return. But the one we sent away is better, will be better and is more valuable than the one who came back to the Oilers.

    I like Schultz just fine, but we traded a 2-3 guy for a 4-5 guy. Straight up.

    Not liking the deal. We should have gotten more in return. I always struggle identifying with a trade where they talk like leadership, character, etc and when I look at Gilbert I see a good guy in the room, hard worker, well liked etc. We are traded away skill for a guy who can play in the last 2 minutes ?! Gilbert does that just fine, in my opinion.

    Watching the Oilers this year I alway felt they struggle the most when the dmen can’t make an outlet pass. The brain cramps in their own end hurt for sure, but Gilbert was on the good side of this ledger. More of a solution than the problem.

  3. neojanus says:

    Gilbert was a class-act from day one and wore the Oil drop as well as anyone.

    I think Schultz is a good pick-up for an Oilers team looking for solidity on the back end and will bring consistency in a different way to Gilbert.

    Saying that, Gilbert earned the respect of the fans this year and I wish him the best. He will have a tough job in Minny now as the expectations will be very high.

    This was one of the very few real trades yesterday and definitely foregrounds the Oilers’ plan this summer.

    AN overpay, yes… but reserve judgement until we see the team at September. I think there are plans on the horizon.

  4. Lowetide says:

    I think–based on what was said after the deal–the Oilers weren’t comfortable with Petry and Gilbert in their top 2 pairings. It might have something to do with Whitney’s range factor (still think they are planning on using him in the top 4 this coming season) too, ST talked about him being a “puck mover” last night.

    So, the “puck movers” will by Whitney and Petry and the stay at homes Schultz and Smid. That’s the only way I can see their thinking on this trade–unless they have something in place to grab a complete defenseman this summer.

  5. regwald says:

    Lowetide,

    The more I hear Tambo, the more I am beginning to think there is no new dman coming to Edmonton this summer. I think they are crossing their fingers, holding their breath and waiting for one or two of Musil, Marincin, Klefbom, Gernat to join the fold.

    A huge mistake in my opinion, but I would be shocked if they sought a young dman that is at the same level or more advanced than Petry.

    If that is true, come this time next year we will be lamenting another fall to the edge of lottery heaven.

  6. Lowetide says:

    Regwald: Agree, but think the player is one of Murray or Reinhart.

  7. mattwatt says:

    Lowetide,

    This is what scares me the most Lowetide. Seemingly Tambo believes that Whitney is a reliable top-4 option moving forward, when he is not. Those who are saying that something is brewing for the summer, wish I shared your outlook. Past shows us that this will not happen.

    Far greater likelihood that this is the top-4 defenceman moving forward.

  8. regwald says:

    Lowetide,

    Ok, but I don’t like that plan much either. For every Doughty, you find a Fowler or Luke Schenn who looks good as a rookie and then steps off a cliff for a few years. If he survives the fall and comes back, you have a keeper. If not, you have lost him never to ever meet expectations again. Like Cam Barker ?!

    Still don’t like that scenario. The only saving grace there is … In Stu We Trust. Everyone else ? Not so much.

  9. Mr DeBakey says:

    Ever notice when Tamblowe trades for a D-man its a salary dump by the other team?
    One of the benefits of having a billionaire….

    Whitney, Sutton and now Schultz

    I thought of this when I read Ireland’s Journal piece today. She said “The Oilers will save a half-million dollars in salary (Schultz has another two years at $3.5 million while Gilbert will make $4 million through 2013-14)”

    This, of course. is wrong. Schultz earns $7.2 over the remainder of his contract, Gilbert $6.5

  10. TheOtherJohn says:

    Yesterday certainly was a vote of confidence in Whitney’s recovery but I have not seen any improvement. If Ryan Whitney is in our top 4 we are not going anywhere next year either. He is largely immobile in a game that penalizes a lack of mobility.

    If Whitney regresses, Oil management will send out scripts “who knew” which will be picked up and that story will be ran with by Edm MSM

  11. regwald says:

    Mr DeBakey:
    Ever notice when Tamblowe trades for a D-man its a salary dump by the other team?
    One of the benefits of having a billionaire….
    This, of course. is wrong. Schultz earns $7.2 over the remainder of his contract, Gilbert $6.5

    What ? But Terry Jones said it was a hockey trade. Just read it this morning. Must be true. Really it must be ?!

  12. Lois Lowe says:

    As long as Gilbert wasn’t shipped out because they think Cam Barker is going to be their 3rd puckmover I can live with the deal. Like many, I don’t trust Whitney’s ankles and I don’t see any help coming down the line.

  13. Woodguy says:

    I’m not sure on the salary dump thing, MIN’s revenues are greater than EDM on most lists. (At the very least their gate revenue is estimated to be $5MM/yr higher than the OIlers, then there is the concessions and parking that goes with that)

    My concerns echo most here:

    1) This shows the Oilers are relying on Whitney to be healthy next year, and that is far from a given. He’s talked about surgery in the off season to tighten up the ankle tendons. Same injury and surgery ended Forsberg’s career.

    2) They Oilers traded something very tough to get (RH multi tool Dman) for something much easier to get (LH D-first defender). Shultz may be good (his results this year are a little concerning compared to past years), but his type is not impossible to find via free agency or trade for lesser return in terms of one player.

    3) Instead of pushing everyone down the depth chart, it pushes some guys, specifically Potter, up.

    The main failing of the Oilers has been putting players in positions that are above their established NHL level of competition. This trade does nothing to address that.

    It is $0.80 for $1.

    I just want to re-iterate point #1 again.

    How can the Oilers rely on Whitney next year? They must see what we see in regards to his mobility.

    I guess I can’t presuppose what they are going to do at the draft or in the summer, but given their track record, I don’t like the chances of them adding another top 4 Dman.

    Except now they need to add a RH top 4 man and those are very rare.

    I know that Shultz can play both sides, but in terms of Dmen, playing your stick side is much, much easier in your own zone corners and at the offensive blue line.

  14. hunter1909 says:

    Some of you need to stop hyperventilating with every tiny thing the oilers do, it’s bad for the digestion.

    Gilbert was a hockey player, and these guys get traded. Did oilers win the deal? Did they lose the deal?

    All I do know is Gilbert at his price wasn’t particularly excellent value. That is a big factor in Tambellini’s figuring.

    The Montreal Canadiens, proud winners of 24 cups have actually joined the tank line, having seen what oilers have started to accomplish. Meanwhile, proud, old timey teams like the Flames console themselves just like 10 years ago in E-town that tanking is terrible, the fans won’t stand for it etc.

    I haven’t seen a better game of old fashioned NHL hockey like last night in ages.

    Shultz seems like a character guy. Gilbert wasn’t. My suggestion is, that tilts the wheel in favour of Shultz. The kids need character guys more than Gilbert types.

    But wow, are the oilers ever going to be good in 2-3 years. Shultz for Gilbert doesn’t appreciably change this one way or another. The Hemsky re-signing – now that’s a big deal.

  15. thedueyspin says:

    Hey LT, with new d being brought in at the expense of d, thus not not solving the problem of lack of quality NHL dman just changing the appearance. Was wondering if there was anyway to pry weber out of Nashville in the summer. Correct me if I’m wrong, I get the sutter and weber contracts mixed up, but hes in need of a new contract this year or next year. Was wondering if a sign and trade is possible. Nashville gets weber to sign an extension and ships him to the oilers for our 2013 first rounder, musil, and omark. Does this interest Nashville? (can an extension be signed before the draft? ie cba rules)

  16. abzz383 says:

    I liked Gilbert alot but I think this trade makes us tougher to play against. That is something we need. We need another Gator.

  17. LMHF#1 says:

    Are we still evaluating the *EVALUATOR* ? No new contract yet and his deadline was less than stellar. I’d suspect a new GM would go after a bigger name D and possibly move Whitney down the line. Love what the guy can bring, but not sure he’ll be that guy again.

  18. Dipstick says:

    The more that I “evaluate” the trade, the more I suspect that Gilbert quietly requested the trade. Tambi probably made the best deal that he could with an unmotivated partner. Hopefully Tambi picks up an other good veteran D-Man that can play top 4 minutes to bridge the gap until his prospects mature. Rushing D prospects like Peckham have created waiver problems. Most of the D prospects should spend their ELC in the minors etc.

  19. Clay says:

    I’m in the group of people who will wait to see what Schultz brings before I make up my mind on this deal.

    I do know that the reaction from the Minny locker room was high disappointment. They were using phrases like Schultz was the “glue” that held the room together (Clutterbuck in a radio interview, sorry, don’t have a link…).

    I think the question marks for me are 1) if Tom Gilbert was expendable in the eyes of mgmt and 2) they were willing to trade D for D, then why not wait until summer and package Gilbert with another asset or two, and get a dman that is clearly > than Gilbert? Wouldn’t Gilbert + Omark/MPS + Marincin/Gernat/Musil bring back something pretty good?

  20. Doug McLachlan says:

    I liked Gilbert and agree he is the more complete player but I am not upset by this trade.

    I am prepared to buy the party line that this is the acquisition of a stay-at-home, settle it down, cool under chaos d-man that helps us hold on to the lead in the last two minutes of the period or the game where, the last few seasons, we have let those heartbreakers kill us.

    I accept the narrative that Schultz does one thing very well and that this may be more advantageous for our team than Gilbert’s ability to do a lot of things fairly well.

    Does this solve the glaring holes in our d – absolutely not -but I am prepared to say that I can see Schultz in the Gator role for the next few years and that is not something we will be upset at having.

  21. Woodguy says:

    LMHF#1:
    Are we still evaluating the *EVALUATOR* ? No new contract yet and his deadline was less than stellar. I’d suspect a new GM would go after a bigger name D and possibly move Whitney down the line. Love what the guy can bring, but not sure he’ll be that guy again.

    Renney hasn;’t been re-upped yet either.

  22. PDO says:

    Am I a bad person for hoping Whitney has to sit for a few games, the Oiler’s can’t make a breakout pass to save their lives for the next few weeks, and we predictably stumble to a 5-10-3 record or some such down the stretch?

    Seems like it will take a special kind of ineptitude to get someone useful in the GM chair.

  23. misfit says:

    I think we could’ve made the deal with Whitney, and I would’ve had a much easier time with it, but it seems like Whitney is a much more vocal guy in the lockerroom, and by the sounds of it, Schultz’ reputation as a leader within the Wild room was a big factor in the trade. Also, Whitney is one of Tambellini’s guys and Gilbert isn’t.

    On a side note, I hate listening to Tambellini discuss his moves after the fact. When he explained the Barker signing, the only positives he mentioned were his age and where he was drafted 7 years earlier. When he discussed this move, he talked about Schultz’ international experience and how much the Wild players liked him. Maybe it’s just me, but none of those things sound like valid reasons to aquire a player. At least we didn’t give up our best defenseman for Barker.

  24. Bar_Qu says:

    The thing that was hardest for me to stomach was that this trade was not necessary. There was no urgency to get it done, and yet it got done and at a low price. Defenceman are hard to come by at the trade deadline and everyone overpays for them.

    Perhaps Schultz is the guy the Oil need on the backend for leadership, etc (from everything coming out of Minny, it sounds like they miss him already). But it makes more sense to get him in the off-season when it is easier and cheaper to do so.

    I guess the only thing that is consistent with what Lowe has been quoted saying in Behind the Moves, is that the Oilers value character (on-ice version) over talent. Perhaps that’s what made this happen. Otherwise, stats-wise, production-wise, position-wise, this move is a distinct down-grade.

    Welcome, Mr. Schultz, your fans await.

  25. Captain Obvious says:

    I’m with lowetide on this one. Reading between the lines tells me they think they want to have two puck-moving guys paired with two stay-at-home guys. This means that:

    1) they think Barbaro can still play and
    2) no help is coming this summer

    It all adds up to another wasted opportunity. With all the improvements from the forwards and the re-signing of Hemsky this team was poised to make the playoffs next year. Everything seems to depend upon Whitney returning to form. Since he has been one of the worst defensemen in the league this year that strikes me as particularly unlikely.

    Finally, I know Schultz has a good track record but his numbers this year are truly terrible. The context of his numbers is difficult, a bad zone start and he plays for a horrible even strength team for shots but that’s true for all the other D on the team and Schultz is doing worse than them defensively. Throw in the fact that he adds nothing offensively and Schultz has been a bottom pairing D this year. So now we need two D to bounce back.

    The plus side of this is that even with the horrible gaffe last night Jeff Petry is really, really, good. I look forward to the fanbase turning on him for all those giveaways and calling on him to be more physical. Smid is also really good. So we have two defensemen that are legitimately in the top 80 in the league. I like that.

  26. Bar_Qu says:

    OTOH, we can now give Schultz a new nickname.

    Peanuts.

    The return for Gilbert, and an homage to Charles Schultz.

    Got that crazy piano tune going in my head already.

  27. nathan says:

    Lowetide,

    Got a feeling the Islanders, Hurricanes, and Habs are picking ahead of the Oilers. But this team can always find a way to kill that feeling. Cam Barker is always available. Will be kind of wierd if we are picking a D at #3. Just pick the guy with the least chance of being Cam.

  28. FastOil says:

    Woodguy,

    Nicely written post WG. The Oilers have tipped their hand as to where there tiny brains are at. They are still subscribing to mythologies about what “hockey players” are. It is not so long ago that I did as well, my understanding driven by the Oilers of old, reading about them and hockey in general, the MSM, etc..

    The thing is, as I began to read the various blogs about the Oilers, I reached a point where I had to grow in my understanding of the team, and the game. Perhaps it wasn’t such a big step, as even though I am a diehard fan, I didn’t enjoy the game that the little team that could, the 90′s and aught’s Oilers played. Loved the passion, but got frustrated with the endless cycling that rarely seemed to end up with a scoring chance, no one to pass to in front of the net.

    I fault Lowe and Tambellini with not seemingly keeping pace with the game as it changes. With the public comments alone from Burke, Wilson and Holland, there is enough information out there about what is happening in the front offices of very well run teams. Burke behaves like a buffoon, but seems to be able to construct a team better than most and doesn’t need a quarter century to do it.

    I have no problem with moving players, in fact it must be part of the fix for the worst team in the league. Can’t keep the same guys and expect a different result. Getting the correct return is critical, building team equity as opposed to lessening it, and having a plan that penetrates further than a single word and the little segments between seasonal events like deadline day and the draft is a must.

    If you trade a player like Gilbert with so many abilities, it should only be for a clear improvement. People keep mentioning Weber. It might have been possible to make a deal for him if you had Gilbert as a piece of the puzzle that could help offset the loss of such a player to Nashville. And sadly for us it seems there is a very good chance Weber wants out of Dodge and will be moving. Any deal the Oilers could make now (barring a complete loss of mental faculties on the part of Poile) would likely create more holes than it would fill.

  29. bookje says:

    I for one hate Gilbert – in fact I hate all members of the Minnesota Wild (Fan hate, not real hate)!

  30. FastOil says:

    Bar_Qu,

    It’s almost like Tambellini is under the impression he is obligated to make a trade at the deadline. As you said there is no reason, except an overpay, to do so. And particularly when it involves players not having good looking years and selling low. Lowe knew enough to pump up Brewer so it’s not like the concept is foreign.

    They should sign Penner this summer on the cheap, run him with Gagner and Eberle so he gets his offense back while he opens up ice for them, and they’ll have a nice piece for a deal for next year’s giveaway.

  31. stevezie says:

    regwald:
    Lowetide,

    The more I hear Tambo, the more I am beginning to think there is no new dman coming to Edmonton this summer. I think they are crossing their fingers, holding their breath and waiting for one or two of Musil, Marincin, Klefbom, Gernat to join the fold.

    Lowetide:
    Regwald: Agree, but think the player is one of Murray or Reinhart.

    You guys forgot Teubert (sorry Plante, you don’t crack this list.) I agree with everyone’s assestment of the trade (Schultz is good, Gilbert is better), but I’m not sure this makes them more or less likely to acquire another D. If we agree that it is a good idea to have five top 4 defenceman (someone will always be hurt or playing below expectations), we still only have four of them and Potter, Peckham, and Sutton filling out the back end. Considering that we probably want mystery kid to be our number eight at worst, the problem is still we need one more good defenceman and one less mediocre defenceman.
    Schultz didn’t fix that problem (at all), but I don’t see how he exacerbates it. As long as Barker isn’t resigned, it’s still a matter of Peckham + whatever for somone at least as good as Schultz.

    Isn’t it?

  32. oilswell says:

    I don’t understand some of the apologetics on this deal. Regardless of whether the Oilers are better off going forward with Schultz instead of Gilbert (I remain unconvinced FWIW), I have a hard time imagining the Wild nixing the deal if the Oilers asked for a 4th rounder to even it up. The argument is Gilbert is only 500k better than Schultz?

  33. rickithebear says:

    A good Dman prevents Goals

    The last 4 years Gilbert was an avergage rank of 25th worst dman for preventing Goals.
    His 2.98GA/60 would be 15th worst each season.

    This years improvement can be determined to be a paired effect with Smid.
    Smid and petry perform the same.

    You are complaining about getting a dman who has allways played 15 toughest zone starts in the league.
    Similiar to guys like Gleason. Weaver, Allen,.

    Versus a Dman who had the 120th hardest zone start.

    So if we want to Ajust GA for Save% and Zone start it is simple

    League average for Save % is 920. 80 from 1000. the save % on ice from desjardins can be measured vs the average.
    Ex. Eric Brewer
    908 sav% with 2.69GA/60
    =2.69*(80/(1000-908))
    the adjusted GA is 2.34GA/60
    Zone starts can be adjusted to 50%. a player start 40% offensive versus 50% should give up 25% more goals.
    =2.34*(32.7/50) if brewer was start 50% he would give up 1.53GA/60.

    Brewers Ga/60 adjusted for Save % and zone start says he is 1.53GA60

    Save%, Corsi, PDO are all flawed values based on a shot being anywere from 5% to 90%.
    To me aan on ice save % relative to minders Ga probably says more about the quality of shot you are giving up. than the Goaltender.

    To me Quality of Competition and GA/60 Adjusted just for zone start are real measures.

    Smid, Petry, Schultz are superior to Gilbert.

  34. DSF says:

    I’m not sure I understand all the gnashing of teeth going on here.

    Last week, the Oilers needed 2 top pairing defensemen.

    In the wake of this trade, the Oilers still need 2 top pairing defensemen but have balanced the bottom 4 by adding another stay at home type.

    xxxx-xxxx
    Smid-Petry
    Whitney – Schultz

    Sutton, Tuebert, Potter

    Now, if Tambellini is counting on Whitney to provide more than bottom pairing minutes next season, that’s a problem but it’s a different problem.

    I do find it curious that Tambellini signed Sutton, Potter and traded for Schutlz in the middle of a lost season rather than wait to see what the alternatives might be at the end of the season when his options are likely to be much more expansive.

    Tampa Bay for example, has been stockpiling defensemen and is currently carrying 10 on its roster, Vancouver also will have a glut at the end of the season.

    Now, the Oilers are unlikely to find a top pairing defenseman in the remainder bin in the offseason but they certainly find upgrades on Whitney, Schultz, Potter, Sutton or Teubert.

    Depending on who the Oilers draft, perhaps they are planning an offseason trade to acquire a top pairing D involving Omark, Gagner, Lander etc, and that makes some sense but I would think going into the offseason without having a bunch of tweener defensemen under contract would have been a smarter bet.

  35. Mr DeBakey says:

    A good Dman prevents Goals

    No, that’s the Goalie
    The GOALie

  36. Ducey says:

    They should sign Penner this summer on the cheap, run him with Gagner and Eberle so he gets his offense back while he opens up ice for them, and they’ll have a nice piece for a deal for next year’s giveaway.

    There is a good chance that the only thing Penner will be opening up next winter is a pancake house. He has been a healthy scratch many games and only has 13 points in 46 games. The fact he has been labelled as lazy and out of shape is the kiss of death for most GM’s – any of whom could have had him for free yesterday.

    The only way the Oilers can pump up Penner’s value is to give him top 6 minutes and PP time. I’d rather see MPS get that time.

    This is no crticism of anyone in particular here but as much as bloggers like to say that GM’s over estimate character and intangibles, they themselves tend to under estimate them.

  37. commonfan14 says:

    On Whitney, when are they going to start talking contract with him if he is indeed in their long-term plans? Will an extension get worked on right away this summer, or will they wait and see like they did with Hemmer?

    If he has a good finish to this season, I find it hard to believe he won’t be on the table come draft time.

    He is an even riskier injury bet than Hemmer, he probably hasn’t been here long enough to want to stay like Hemmer did, and he tweets constantly about Boston sports.

    From a strictly surface perspective, I don’t like the odds of him re-signing if it isn’t an overpay in dollars or years. And that sounds like a crazy idea considering his feet and ankles.

  38. Woodguy says:

    stevezie,

    A few different reporters mentioned that the Oilers were hard after Aulie from TOR, but couldn’t match TBY’s offer of Carter Ashton.

    I’m reading two things into this info:

    1) The OIlers didn’t offer MPS (thank god)

    2) The Oilers don’t think too much of Tuebert.

    I iknow you should always try to acquire good players when available (I think Aulie will be a Sutton type and have a NHL career), but he’s the exact same player as Tuebert, and the Oilers generally don’t try to replicate what they already have.

    Not that the Oilers understand balance, but they do not generally shop for something they already have. Their MO is ignoring holes rather than duplicating skills. (i.e. 2 puck moving 5 tool Dmen??? Ship one out!!)

    Pure speculation on my part.

  39. FastOil says:

    DSF,

    Some good points. The Oilers have publicly said they feel they have the defensive assets in the system and need veterans to stopgap for a few years. To fix a last place team, there has to be an increase in the team equity – more talented players are needed to get better.

    It makes little sense to trade a very good player for another of similar value. There can’t be much improvement in doing that – it’s not like they traded MAB for Schultz. The best way to do this is to sign UFA veterans (as the Wings do) to fill holes until players develop. Trades have to be for core pieces (that will be core when the team has the ability to make a run) or as I see it there won’t be much increase in team equity.

    Schultz will be close to declining in play when this team is good enough to do anything. Gilbert was wasted. Ufa’s will sign in Edmonton for money, and Katz seems to be good with a high payroll and bad team. It can be done, especially now with the type of young players on the team.

  40. Woodguy says:

    rickithebear:
    A good Dman prevents Goals

    The last 4 years Gilbert was an avergage rank of 25th worst dman for preventing Goals.
    His 2.98GA/60 would be 15th worst each season.

    This years improvement can be determined to be a paired effect with Smid.
    Smid and petry perform the same.

    You are complaining about getting a dman who has allways played 15 toughest zone starts in the league.
    Similiar to guys like Gleason.Weaver, Allen,.

    Versus a Dman who had the 120th hardest zone start.

    So if we want to Ajust GA for Save% and Zone start it is simple

    League average for Save % is 920. 80 from 1000. the save % on ice from desjardins can be measured vs the average.
    Ex.Eric Brewer
    908 sav% with 2.69GA/60
    =2.69*(80/(1000-908))
    the adjusted GA is 2.34GA/60
    Zone starts can be adjusted to 50%. a player start 40% offensive versus 50% should give up 25% more goals.
    =2.34*(32.7/50) if brewer was start 50% he would give up 1.53GA/60.

    Brewers Ga/60 adjusted for Save % and zone start says he is 1.53GA60

    Save%, Corsi, PDO are all flawed values based on a shot being anywere from 5% to 90%.
    To me aan on ice save % relative to minders Gaprobably says more about the quality of shot you are giving up. than the Goaltender.

    To me Quality of Competitionand GA/60 Adjusted just for zone start are real measures.

    Smid, Petry, Schultz are superior to Gilbert.

    Zone starts can be adjusted to 50%. a player start 40% offensive versus 50% should give up 25% more goals.

    How exactly did you determine that correction factor, it seems huge.

    I like your correction factor on 5v5 SV%, but the zone start one seem way off.

  41. Bos8 says:

    Don’t know enough about Schultz to make valid observations. Watching games on TV makes for half baked evaluations so you have to rely on others

    Some thoughts

    I’m a big fan of efficient D. As in baseball – make the plays that you’re supposed to make.

    I’m intrigued with the concept that defencemen play D. Don’t give me exciting , quiet D is where it’s at. Then again I don’t get excited at big hits. There should be a reason for big hits – send a message. The rest of the time it’s meaningless and low percentage.

    Counting hits leaves me yawning. Give me Petrell over Jones all game long. Anyone notice how well Petrell is playing lately and I don’t mean the two excuse me scoring plays last night – if not then he’s doing his job.

    I fail to see the offensive dynamo that the Oilers gave away, that is creating such angst on the boards. What I remember most is Gilbert playing exciting hockey in his own end.

  42. El Guapo says:

    Bar_Qu:
    OTOH, we can now give Schultz a new nickname.

    Peanuts.

    The return for Gilbert, and an homage to Charles Schultz.

    Got that crazy piano tune going in my head already.

    This is an excellent suggestion. Better than “Shultzie” or some other lazy hockey nickname.

  43. cabbiesmacker says:

    Sometimes when I try to rationalize the Oiler moves a late 80′s Bruce Springsteen song starts rolling around in my head. “One Step Up and Two Steps back.” Maybe Bruce bailed on the Devs back then and the Oilers are his “Secret Garden.”

    I’ve mulled the trade a lot but every scenario rolled leads back to three conclusions.
    1) This makes no sense
    2) Theres more to this than we know of, and..
    3) Gilbert must have requested the move.

    With Petry coming into his own it was kind of exciting to think we might have three top 4 types in place for at least the next couple of years. Now it feels like things have regressed. To my eye Gilbert pre-injury had taken some very solid steps forward this year. I can only shake my head and wonder why it is that any “duplication” perceived by management could be seen as a bad thing. Does Nashville think another Weber or Suter would be a bad thing? Chicago with Keith and Seabrook? Would the 70′s Bruins have traded off Orr if a clone fell into their hands?

    I seem to recall stories of Gilbert, Cogliano, and I think Gagner, sharing a home back in the day. Some camaraderie had to have been built. He didn’t sound like any sort of pariah in anything I ever heard so I’m not understanding the “character” side. I thought he did a pretty decent job of leading by example too.

    Minnesota is a curious choice of trading partners as well. He had to have requested a move to be nearer to family, girlfriend, wife? Can’t recall his marital status.

    Could management be so paranoid of Russians and so in love with Murray or Dumba that they think that’s the best plan? Do their egos and perspective reach further than the Oil Kings and Reinhart? Do they actually think one of the three can step in and contribute right off the hop? If so it lends creedence to the “6 year plan” and them not being willing to take a shorter road home.

    Would it make sense to look down the road to Gilbert’s 2014 contract with one eye on Gagner, Eberle, RNH and Halls? If so…cmon boys…Horcoff? Shredder? Dumpster?

    A couple of nagging sniglets. The Carcillo hit didn’t seem to prompt much in the way of a response. Broken leg or no Carcillo should have taken a few to the face for his troubles. Nothing. I’m also blown away by how quiet the team and media have been in the wake of the trade and how Gilbert just seemed to fade out of the picture. We see accolades pouring out of Minny for Schultz. Crickets and shrugs for Tommyboy.

    I do know one thing for sure. If KL and ST are hung up on the character attribute being the beat all and end all its a dumb road to travel. Talent first boys. You’re in no position to start making character the #1 prerequisite.

    Back to scratching my head with a pitchfork.

  44. DSF says:

    Woodguy,

    Perhaps the Oilers DID offer MPS and were turned down.

    Ashton is closing in on a 20 goal season as an AHL rookie.

    With Burke’s love of truculence, Ashton (58 PIM) would seem to be much more his type of player.

  45. LMHF#1 says:

    rickithebear:
    A good Dman prevents Goals

    Petry superior to Gilbert.

    No to the first (more goals for than against is the actual measure of course, combined with wearing out opp forwards and many other little things that help other players on your team do their job).

    The second suggests you’re crazy.

  46. LMHF#1 says:

    Woodguy: Renney hasn;’t been re-upped yet either.

    This is true. I’d clean house and I’d like to see the org clean house. We need a sound tactician who thinks quickly at GM and a coach that is the modern-day equivalent of Sather in the 80′s to make this team fly. I don’t know if that guy’s out there, but it is certainly worth a shot.

  47. spoiler says:

    misfit:
    I think we could’ve made the deal with Whitney, and I would’ve had a much easier time with it, but it seems like Whitney is a much more vocal guy in the lockerroom, and by the sounds of it, Schultz’ reputation as a leader within the Wild room was a big factor in the trade.Also, Whitney is one of Tambellini’s guys and Gilbert isn’t.

    On a side note, I hate listening to Tambellini discuss his moves after the fact.When he explained the Barker signing, the only positives he mentioned were his age and where he was drafted 7 years earlier.When he discussed this move, he talked about Schultz’ international experience and how much the Wild players liked him.Maybe it’s just me, but none of those things sound like valid reasons to aquire a player.At least we didn’t give up our best defenseman for Barker.

    To be fair, he was more in-depth than you have represented.

  48. kped80 says:

    DSF,

    People are gnashing their teeth because, like so much Tambellini has done, there seems to be some missing logic. It seems that most felt this is a swap of two players of similar contracts, ages, positions, etc., with the big difference being Gilbert’s offensive skills versus Schultz’s supposed higher-rated defensive skills (shot blocking, physicality).

    The frustration here is that the franchise under Tambi is so secretive, and on the few occasions that someone with the team actually divulges information, it’s vague and leaves us inferring meaning. Could the comments “he’s someone that’s very consistent and … a warrior-type guy” mean that the mgmt, coaches, and teammates not feel that way about Gilbert?

    Regardless of the spin, the numbers suggest that Schultz isn’t much of a defensive upgrade, and he’s certainly not an offensive upgrade. This seems to be about changing the culture, something Tambi’s been doing since he fired MacT. Is this an indictment on the current culture? If so, is that an indictment of the coach or the GM?

  49. kped80 says:

    El Guapo,

    But Jonesy already declared his nickname is Schultzy during the interviews running on the oilers site. I mean, this team follows nicknaming 101 to a tee!

  50. Showerhead says:

    Yesterday, Lowetide posted this link:
    http://www.startribune.com/sports/blogs/140638653.html

    If you haven’t read it, you should.

    The concerning part is how accurately MIN describes Tom Gilbert and how I can’t ever remember EDM making such thorough and accurate statements about a player they acquired. Ever!

    On one hand, this problem predates Tambellini and on the other, it certainly continues to include him.

  51. Woodguy says:

    DSF:
    Woodguy,

    Perhaps the Oilers DID offer MPS and were turned down.

    Ashton is closing in on a 20 goal season as an AHL rookie.

    With Burke’s love of truculence, Ashton (58 PIM) would seem to be much more his type of player.

    Perhaps.

    By the way I like how you asked why everyone is knashing their teeth, the proceed to explain that Tambellini traded Gilbert for a 3rd pairing Dman.

    Subtle, but very well done.

  52. Bos8 says:

    Sather’s greatest strength was – He knew he was dumb. He surrounded himself with bright people. A lot like Ralph Klein as a premier. So he had MacGregor as Asst Gm and then people like Muckler on the bench. He even once, hired Neilson as video analyst for the playoffs.

  53. kinger says:

    Lowetide,

    Reinhart is a fantastic prospect and a great kid. I know that in these parts we rate these elements pretty low, but he’s got great parents and grew up in a very healthy environment.

    On the ‘tangible’ assets front, he has fantastic size and has really improved his point shot this season.

    He’s getting 2nd unit powerplay time on the Oil Kings and is paired with Gernat at ES. Gernat is a complete riverboat gambler on the ice, and Reinhart has to frequently cover for his mistakes.

    He’s an excellent skater and has great mobility. The only weakness I saw in his game was his passing and that should improve with time.

  54. DSF says:

    Woodguy: Perhaps.

    By the way I like how you asked why everyone is knashing their teeth, the proceed to explain that Tambellini traded Gilbert for a 3rd pairing Dman.

    Subtle, but very well done.

    Nah, you’re confusing what I suggested the Oilers D should look like rather than what it likely will look like.

    I fully expect Tambellini won’t go out and find 2 top pairing D in the offseason and will run with Shultz on the second pairing.

    If you think Gilbert would have been a top pairing on a good team, you have a point, but I don’t.

  55. DSF says:

    kped80:
    DSF,

    People are gnashing their teeth because, like so much Tambellini has done, there seems to be some missing logic. It seems that most felt this is a swap of two players of similar contracts, ages, positions, etc., with the big difference being Gilbert’s offensive skills versus Schultz’s supposed higher-rated defensive skills (shot blocking, physicality).

    The frustration here is that the franchise under Tambi is so secretive, and on the few occasions that someone with the team actually divulges information, it’s vague and leaves us inferring meaning. Could the comments “he’s someone that’s very consistent and … a warrior-type guy” mean that the mgmt, coaches, and teammates not feel that way about Gilbert?

    Regardless of the spin, the numbers suggest that Schultz isn’t much of a defensive upgrade, and he’s certainly not an offensive upgrade. This seems to be about changing the culture, something Tambi’s been doing since he fired MacT. Is this an indictment on the current culture? If so, is that an indictment of the coach or the GM?

    Very good questions.

    I think most folks missed the import of a comment yesterday when Tambellini talked about Shutlz’s character both ON and OFF the ice.

    I’m not about to engage in speculation but I think there is something there and, like a few others, I wouldn’t be at all surprised if Gilbert asked for a trade.

  56. rickithebear says:

    Woodguy: By the way I like how you asked why everyone is knashing their teeth, the proceed to explain that Tambellini traded Gilbert for a 3rd pairing Dman.

    Is total Bull.
    The anti Tambellini crowd are being what red calls his son in the 70′s show..

    Schultz has huge zone starts and faces upper 2nd comp with 2nd line teamates with top 5 2nd tier results. relative to the lower 1st line comps he is the best. so a top 30 dman.

    Spurgeon takes on lower first line comp with equal teamates to Schultz. with equally tough zone start. so spurgeon is a top 5 in the tough comp group.

    So 3rd pairing bravado may make you smile.

    Calling the 30th best defensive damn 3rd pairing is embarrasing.

    Your tambo hate is as bad as LT’s huge (Don cherry) Bias towards swedish kids. Though when i think of Smid too. maybe it is europeans.

  57. maudite says:

    TheOtherJohn: Yesterday certainly was a vote of confidence in Whitney’s recovery but I have not seen any improvement. If Ryan Whitney is in our top 4 we are not going anywhere next year either. He is largely immobile in a game that penalizes a lack of mobility. If Whitney regresses, Oil management will send out scripts “who knew” which will be picked up and that story will be ran with by Edm MSM

    This has bothered me more than it likely should. Moving targets in their bs. Horcoff actual dollars, gilbert salary cap dollars…Just try as best you can to paint it the way the org wants them to.

    I’ve kind of been feeling it for awthile but looking at the comments by people on tsn, ON and such I’m sort of glad they did it, in a sick sort of way. We kind of deserve to be run by idiots if people are too stupid to stop and honestly question why we suck as bad as we have. The fact that people can justify this as making our defense ‘better’ and that all they saw of Gilbert was any time your icetime leader makes a mistake….screw em. Glad he’s gone. I don’t understand how people honestly cannot comprehend that Gilbert this year is fairly similar to Gilbert last year….The reason Smid and Gilbert actually were an actual functional top 4 pair is because Smid took a huge leap forward. We spend more actual dollars (nowhere near ceiling for these last 2 years so who cares) not a plus….Finally look to have had a solid duo that has great chemistry (that is never a guarantee) not a plus. I don’t understand how people are happy about this….

  58. spoiler says:

    rickithebear: Is total Bull.The anti Tambellini crowd are being what red calls his son in the 70′s show..

    Meathead?

    Oh wait. Sorry, that’s a different 70s show.

  59. Lowetide says:

    rickithebear: Is total Bull.
    The anti Tambellini crowd are being what red calls his son in the 70′s show..

    Schultz has huge zone starts and facesupper 2nd comp with 2nd line teamates with top 5 2nd tier results. relative to the lower 1st line comps he is the best. so a top 30 dman.

    Spurgeon takes on lowerfirst line comp with equal teamates to Schultz. with equally tough zone start. so spurgeon is a top 5 in the tough comp group.

    So 3rd pairing bravado may make you smile.

    Calling the 30th best defensive damn 3rd pairing is embarrasing.

    Your tambo hate is as bad as LT’s huge (Don cherry) Bias towards swedish kids. Though when i think of Smid too. maybe it is europeans.

    What now? My bias toward swedish kids? I’m not following.

  60. maudite says:

    that’s not even mentioning the fact that one guys been living here for 6 years, likely has roots and such either. There isn’t an upside to this. Surely with MN retooling we could have done a three for 1 and still kept Tom.

    Peckham, Omark and a 3rd…Teubert, Omark and a 3rd…Hell Peckham & Teubert and a 3rd even (both are years away from a chance of turning into that #4 Dman.)

    Whatever. Signing Hemsky and Renney on the bench means Omark is likely never going to get a chance here so while it hurts our Baron’s (I know, that is very important…moreso than the actual team right now lol) it’s dealing a guy that has potential before he leaves for nothing…(that’s not in our plan of buy high sell low or discard though). Surely there is a way to get this deal done

  61. spoiler says:

    From reading the comments on that Russo article, what I get from Wild Fans is that Schultz is known for The Pass to No One. That basically he just bangs the puck off the glass and out of the zone when he gets into trouble.

    Do we need more of this? Someone comped him to Staios yesterday (TOJ?) and that looks to be fairly accurate. There have certainly been many times this season when this team could have used a Steady Steve on the back end.

    When I look at the low-scoring defensemen on our roster, I wonder though, if we needed more puck-moving defensemen or less. The points from the D position tell me we need either more, or better PMDs.

    But when I look at our GF/GA/GD, I notice that with our GD we should probably have a better record than we do. Now it is no surprise that a young team is losing games they should win. I can’t remember who, but I think it was Nasim Taleb or another economist who said this w.r.t. game theory: Rookies try to win, experienced players try to make the other team lose. That’s a pretty dead-on insight.

    A guy who is banging the puck out of the zone isn’t trying to win. He’s trying to make sure the other team doesn’t.

    My guess is that if there’s another move, it is for a PP specialist, mostly Offensive-type Dman.

  62. spoiler says:

    Lowetide: What now? My bias toward swedish kids? I’m not following.

    Were you aware that Jeff Petryberg was Swedish?

  63. regwald says:

    Bar_Qu:
    OTOH, we can now give Schultz a new nickname.

    Peanuts.

    The return for Gilbert, and an homage to Charles Schultz.

    Got that crazy piano tune going in my head already.

    That’s Golden … love it. And even better out of curiosity I dug this up from Wiki

    Born in Minneapolis, Minnesota, Schulz grew up in Saint Paul. He was the only child of Carl Schulz, who was born in Germany, and Dena Halverson, who was Norwegian.[2] His uncle called him “Sparky” after the horse Spark Plug in Billy DeBeck’s comic strip, Barney Google.[3]

    Schulz loved drawing and sometimes drew his family dog, Spike, who ate unusual things, such as pins and tacks. Schulz drew a picture of Spike and sent it to Ripley’s Believe It or Not!; his drawing appeared in Robert Ripley’s syndicated panel, captioned, “A hunting dog that eats pins, tacks and razor blades is owned by C. F. Schulz, St. Paul, Minn.” and “Drawn by ‘Sparky’”[4] (C.F. was his father, Carl Fred Schulz.)[5]

  64. "Steve Smith" says:

    Showerhead:
    The concerning part is how accurately MIN describes Tom Gilbert and how I can’t ever remember EDM making such thorough and accurate statements about a player they acquired.

    That was exactly my reaction – I don’t know that I’ve ever seen a more dead-on description of Gilbert. Makes me think that Chuck Fletcher not only has a better understanding of him than Oilers fans (which he clearly does) but than Oilers’ management.

  65. HeavySig says:

    kped80,

    kped80:
    El Guapo,

    But Jonesy already declared his nickname is Schultzy during the interviews running on the oilers site. I mean, this team follows nicknaming 101 to a tee!

    I vote for Sarge, as in Sergeant Shultz. “I know NOTHINK!”

    LT inspired that idea, blame him.

  66. Traktor says:

    Tambellini should have asked Fletcher for Nick Leddy.

  67. regwald says:

    “Steve Smith”: That was exactly my reaction – I don’t know that I’ve ever seen a more dead-on description of Gilbert.Makes me think that Chuck Fletcher not only has a better understanding of him than Oilers fans (which he clearly does) but than Oilers’ management.

    Which goes back to the on-going point on this blog about the inept pro scouting currently occurring for the Oilers. Still more work to be done here. I would challenge that the scouts may be ok, but they are not looking./using advanced stats to an advantage.

    Preferring the old adages, character, competing, look in his eyes, hard to play against. Yes, good character traits to discuss, but more accurate stats and comparisons are required.

  68. Jordan says:

    LMHF#1: This is true. I’d clean house and I’d like to see the org clean house. We need a sound tactician who thinks quickly at GM and a coach that is the modern-day equivalent of Sather in the 80′s to make this team fly. I don’t know if that guy’s out there, but it is certainly worth a shot.

    I was quite pleased with how things were running when Renney was out and Kreuger was behind the bench. If they don’t rehire Renney, I’d be willing to give Kreuger a season to show what he can do.

    DSF: If you think Gilbert would have been a top pairing on a good team, you have a point, but I don’t.

    I had to read this a few times to be sure I understood – now, I want to be sure everyone sees this, and understands:

    DSF has no point.

    You may want to consider ignoring him. As I so successfully do. ;)

  69. bookje says:

    Showerhead:
    Yesterday, Lowetide posted this link:
    http://www.startribune.com/sports/blogs/140638653.html

    If you haven’t read it, you should.

    The concerning part is how accurately MIN describes Tom Gilbert and how I can’t ever remember EDM making such thorough and accurate statements about a player they acquired. Ever!

    On one hand, this problem predates Tambellini and on the other, it certainly continues to include him.

    You know, I read it, and found it to be a rather pedestrian description of Tom Gilbert, the exact same description that 29 other GMs, including Tambellini, would give.

  70. DSF says:

    Jordan: I was quite pleased with how things were running whenRenney was out and Kreuger was behind the bench.If they don’t rehire Renney, I’d be willing to give Kreuger a season to show what he can do.

    I had to read this a few times to be sure I understood –now, I want to be sure everyone sees this, and understands:

    DSF has no point.

    You may want to consider ignoring him.As I so successfully do.

    How’s that working out for you?

  71. Captain Obvious says:

    Ricki’s right about the context of Schultz’ numbers. Amongst NHL D with at least 20 games, Schultz’ has had the 10th worst zone start, against the 46th best competition, with the 7th worst teammates (by shot metrics the Wild are the worst team in the league). Add that up and he’s been playing in a very difficult context.

    However, his performance has been awful. 215th in pts/60 (out of 217), 189th in relcorsi, 201st in SF/on, 212th in SA/on. The closest comparables to Schultz this year in terms of context combined w/ performance are Ryan O’Byrne and Matt Carkner. Playing tough minutes is only a plus if you can break even or come out ahead. Schultz has done neither this year. The notion that Schultz is in the top 30 of D is laughable.

    Other guys play in tough competition with poor zone starts and mediocre competition and come out ahead. To listen to Ricky talk you’d think we had traded for Ryan McDonagh. But we didn’t trade for McDonagh, a clear top pairing D, we traded for Nick Schultz, a bottom pairing guy with a good history.

  72. Traktor says:

    Captain Obvious,

    Steve Downie has 7 points in 4 games, +7 since joining the Avs. Colorado has won 4 straight since trading for Downie.

    Its early but it looks like that wasn’t the worst trade in the world after all.

  73. Woodguy says:

    Radio was on 1260 when I got in my truck.

    First thing I heard was “Spec’s experts, with Marc Spector and Doug Mclean”

    That’s like hearing “Food experts with The Swedish Chef and Grizelda the Ghastly Gormet”

    Lordy.

  74. Captain Obvious says:

    Traktor,

    I agree. I shot my mouth off about Downie without looking at the numbers. By my interpretation of the the numbers Downie was having a very good season. So it looks (to me) like I was wrong about Downie. But if that is the case that is a point in favour of using the numbers to evaluate players. Using the same method that hates Schultz and likes Gilbert, turns up much love for Downie.

  75. Bar_Qu says:

    After reading Fletcher’s comments about Peanuts I actually feel better about the trade. Still think it was an overpay, still unnecessary at the deadline, but at least it is a quality player .

  76. Ducey says:

    Do we need more of this? Someone comped him to Staios yesterday (TOJ?) and that looks to be fairly accurate. There have certainly been many times this season when this team could have used a Steady Steve on the back end.

    That was me.

    OTOH, we can now give Schultz a new nickname.

    Peanuts.

    The return for Gilbert, and an homage to Charles Schultz.
    …………
    But Jonesy already declared his nickname is Schultzy during the interviews running on the oilers site. I mean, this team follows nicknaming 101 to a tee!

    If you are showering with a guy everyday, you probably don’t want to be referring to his nuts. Unless you are gay, then maybe its a whole different story.

  77. russ99 says:

    Captain Obvious,

    Again, Corsi is useless in judging a defensive player who doesn’t contribute at both ends of the ice.

    Schultz would never have positive (or even mid-level) Corsi numbers because he doesn’t contribute many shots for, and since he’s a stay at home defenseman playing tough competition, he’ll have plenty of shots against.

    The same thing went for Gilbert. His (plus) offensive numbers wiped out many of his (minus) defensive numbers, at least that was the case in past seasons.

    The raw numbers may pencil Schultz in as a third pairing guy, but his defensive play is first pairing on a bad team and second pairing on a good team.

  78. Showerhead says:

    bookje: Youknow, I read it, and found it to be a rather pedestrian description of Tom Gilbert, the exact same description that 29 other GMs, including Tambellini, would give.

    The part that stood out to me was knowledge of context – “he played with Smid in a shutdown pairing”. When does Edmonton ever demonstrate that they know what type of minutes an acquisition has played?

    I did re-read it though and will grant that it’s fairly normal. Informed, but normal (and this is the standard I don’t think Edmonton is meeting.)

  79. delooper says:

    I think I see where Tambellini is going with this. Before this year, it seemed like half the people or more on this forum were really negative about Gilbert. But this year, thanks in large part to Smid’s blossoming into a stud shut-down defender, together with Gilbert polishing some details in the off-season, Gilbert has become an undeniably versatile and near universally-recognised utility defender.

    So the idea is, *do it again*! Get one more solid shut-down defender into the system, and pair up the promising all-around and offensive defensemen with them. Hopefully it becomes a bit of a pipeline for streamlining the development of some of the Oilers defenders. Who knows, perhaps they acquire some stellar defender in the off-season and they’ll track to a different model. But they’ve got to work with what they’ve got. And Smid-Gilbert became something really nice. Petry looks set to become an improvement on Gilbert in that regard.

    IMO the 80c on the dollar commentary is too short-sited. If you view every trade in that lens, you’d develop an awful hockey team in a hunt for super-stars-only.

    Good hockey teams become good by putting players in a position where they can succeed. Tambellini is going for a model where they can develop defenders in-house, and don’t have to always be purchasing from elsewhere. If you have a core of 3 solid stay-at-home types, it gives you some flexibility to develop less mature, more multi-talented defenders. Until you’ve become Detroit, this seems to be one of the best models available for development of the D.

    The main compromise of course is you have to play a system where you can still get the puck to the forwards. They might have some problems with that in the near future, but with players like RNH, Hall, Eberle and Hemsky that can carry the puck so well, maybe this isn’t such a huge worry.

  80. rickithebear says:

    Lowetide: What now? My bias toward swedish kids? I’m not following.

    MAP VS. MP/Lander
    WJC allstar Klefbom not proving anything vs. CHL Dmen
    No belief in Omark
    Questioning Smid.

    I am sure it is all coincedence.

  81. Bar_Qu says:

    Ducey,

    I suspect none of us here are close enough to the team to shower with them. Ergo, as fans, I suspect we are OK to coin whichever nickname we like (making Cannonball ok for Hall).

    Schultzie was a given for what his teammates would call him.

  82. spoiler says:

    Showerhead: The part that stood out to me was knowledge of context– “he played with Smid in a shutdown pairing”. When does Edmonton ever demonstrate that they know what type of minutes an acquisition has played?

    I did re-read it though and will grant that it’s fairly normal. Informed, but normal (and this is the standard I don’t think Edmonton is meeting.)

    What was lacking in Tambo’s description of Schultz? Sounded almost identical to Fletcher’s.

  83. spoiler says:

    Showerhead and “Steve”:

    And then we have Fletcher’s description of Tambellini:

    There would have been a lot of other pieces I would have preferred to move besides Nick Schultz, but Steve Tambellini knows the players and knows the league. It wasn’t an easy price, let’s put it that way.”

  84. Gret99zky says:

    Bar_Qu: OTOH, we can now give Schultz a new nickname.Peanuts. The return for Gilbert, and an homage to Charles Schultz. Got that crazy piano tune going in my head already.

    Boy howdy.

    I hope Schultz is a good fit here and jams it straight up the backsides of all the critics.

    Crapping all over the guy before he has played one game for the team.

  85. Captain Obvious says:

    russ99:
    Captain Obvious,

    Again, Corsi is useless in judging a defensive player who doesn’t contribute at both ends of the ice.

    Schultz would never have positive (or even mid-level) Corsi numbers because he doesn’t contribute many shots for, and since he’s a stay at home defenseman playing tough competition, he’ll have plenty of shots against.

    The same thing went for Gilbert. His (plus) offensive numbers wiped out many of his (minus) defensive numbers, at least that was the case in past seasons.

    The raw numbers may pencil Schultz in as a third pairing guy, but his defensive play is first pairing on a bad team and second pairing on a good team.

    This is nonsensical in so many different ways.

    First, it doesn’t matter where a player contributes. What matters is whether and how much they contribute. If Schultz doesn’t contribute on the offensive end then he has to make up for it with additional contributions on the defensive end.

    Second, there is no systematic bias within corsi against defensive players. A shot prevented is counted in Corsi just as much as a shot created. So even if the Oilers had a particular need for a defensive defenseman this would show up in Corsi because good defensive players do, in fact, have good corsi numbers. There is a systematic bias against defensive zone starts but that wasn’t the point you are making. Moreover, that bias can be accounted for. Schutlz’ corsi numbers this year are the worst of the worst. It is because we are aware of the bias against zone starts that I’m giving him any credit at all.

    The argument in favour of Schultz isn’t that there is a bias against defensive defensemen in the numbers, it is that as recently as last year he had excellent numbers. Numbers require sample size so I’m happy to split the difference between the two seasons. Splitting the difference makes Schultz a #4 at best. Likewise the worst interpretation of Gilbert’s numbers over the past three seasons is that he is a #3. So best case scenario is the Oilers lose ground on the trade.

  86. hunter1909 says:

    Re Obtaining a Number One Defenceman:

    Draft one top prospect this June, add him to the team next training camp, let him play with the old players who are known to everyone as the Kids…

    Paul Coffey 2.0(you never can tell). :P

    The Luke Shenn’s of the world are already semi-projects, really glorified versions of Cam Barker. In other words, they can equally bust than succeed – unlike a rookie with raw talent, plugged into the hottest young forward core in hockey.

    That’s the method they’re going to use whatever happens. Katz/Lowe/Tambellini aren’t panicking so far at all, haven’t pulled a LA Kings sell off the future for perpetual rebuild/suckage = zero cups, not in the slightest.

    Fuck any idea of getting some new GM. The last thing our timorous oiler fans hearts need is another idiot gambler ala Brian Burke/Dean Lombardi.

  87. Bos8 says:

    I really had a problem with the Oilers scattershot D. To me the common denominator for both Gilbert and Petry improvement, is Smid as in assigned roles. “Petry, you boogie and I’ll cover”.

    Hopefully we’ll see this with Schultz. The template I’d like to explore is the young D coming through as other teams are bringing young D up at an early age. Set teams can afford to season kids in the minors for long periods. Teams like the Oilers need to expedite the process. Klefbom is playing top minutes on one of the top teams in Sweden. He could very well be the bridge coming up. That is where a top pro scout would be of value.

    Pulling numbers without context is random.

  88. rickithebear says:

    Obvious: Bringing up Corsi to me is a waste of time. 20 80% shots are equal to 400 4% shots. a variance of 2000% in shot value. the error is almost greater than the data range.

    it would be like trying to get you to fill a water glass by doing fine water control over a dam gate with a manual cantilever system. To heck with the glass. You are going to drown buddy.

    Schultz is a great defensive Dman. who averaged 3G and 16P in his career.

    As a point of reference: the upper 2nd comp group
    Schultz #5,
    Murray #4 1G 9A
    Just brutal. who would want defensive results like Doug Murray.

    Hunter was going to say klefbom is that guy. but Bos8 got it covered

  89. Bos8 says:

    rickithebear: MAP VS. MP/LanderWJC allstar Klefbom not proving anything vs. CHL DmenNo belief in OmarkQuestioning Smid.I am sure it is all coincedence.

    Paranoia is sometimes valid.

    In this case – not

  90. misfit says:

    spoiler: To be fair, he was more in-depth than you have represented.

    True, but the first 3 things he had to say about Schultz in his interview on oilers.com were:

    - he’s dependable
    - he’s very fit
    - he has good experience internationally

    The dependable bit is good, though a little generic. Fitness is important, but I don’t know if it’s the #1 (or #2) reason you go after a guy, especially considering all of these guys are pro athletes and fitness should be expected. And unless he’s anticipating Eurpean expansion, I don’t see why you’d even talk about his international experience. It defintely shouldn’t be one of the first things to come out of your mouth when trying to tell your fanbase about him. Hopefully it’s just an issue with the way he communicates to the public, but I never get the feeling he knows all that much about the players he’s bringing into the organization.

  91. Captain Obvious says:

    rickithebear,

    The problem with using goals is it:

    1) ignores massive amounts of data and
    2) is highly dependent on circumstances outside of the players control.

    This isn’t rocket science. There are about five plays a game that result in a goal. Why would you focus on those plays and ignore all the others? Especially since these plays are highly influenced by fluctuations in goalie performance. In order for your method to work you have to give Schultz credit for the saves the goalie makes. Now this is a testable hypothesis. I invite you to provide evidence for your argument.

    In the meantime I will follow the evidence and conclude that not only is Schultz not a top tier D, this season he has played below replacement level.

  92. Bos8 says:

    Contrary to prevailing opinion Lowe knows D. Played it well and back when put together some nice D corps.

    I’d send his butt to “Springtime in Sweden” for a holiday. Just by happenstance, he’d arrive there in time for the Swedish playoffs and of course would visit the team and players during his sojourn. Kind of “Hi there, I was in the neighborhood” kind of thing. “You’re in the playoffs, boy I love playoffs”. And then bore them to tears recalling past glories.

    Now that would be an evaluation.

  93. Showerhead says:

    spoiler: What was lacking in Tambo’s description of Schultz?Sounded almost identical to Fletcher’s.

    Hmmm. Show me?

  94. HeavySig says:

    rickithebear: MAP VS. MP/Lander
    WJC allstar Klefbom notproving anythingvs. CHL Dmen
    No belief in Omark
    Questioning Smid.

    I am sure it is all coincedence.

    I thought Georges Laraque was a pretty mediocre hockey player.

    In rickithebear world, that makes me a racist.

  95. HeavySig says:

    spoiler:
    From reading the comments on that Russo article, what I get from Wild Fans is that Schultz is known for The Pass to No One. That basically he just bangs the puck off the glass and out of the zone when he gets into trouble.

    I used to call that play the “Fogolin Special.” Maybe that is what Loweballini wants for the New Boys in the Bus?

  96. delooper says:

    Why are people placing so much value on what Tambellini says to the public? His comments aren’t meant to be analyzed, they’re for the generic fan that maybe attends one or two games a year, that doesn’t track the 24-hour Oilers news cycle.

  97. Bos8 says:

    delooper: Why are people placing so much value on what Tambellini says to the public? His comments aren’t meant to be analyzed, they’re for the generic fan that maybe attends one or two games a year, that doesn’t track the 24-hour Oilers news cycle.

    Bad presentation by Tambs and agenda, maybe some envy.

  98. Jordan says:

    Is there a webpage or app or something that tracks the projected finish of a team based on their current position?

    F.E. the Oilers were projecting to finish the year at the top of the Western Conference at the end of October. Not so much now. I’m looking for a graphical representation of the projected finish of each team, by game.

    Does such a thing exist?

  99. tubes says:

    Interesting points by all.

    Whether anyone likes this or not, we truly aren’t going to realize who won this trade for at least a year if not more. Sometimes it takes good players a while to adjust before succeeding in a new environment.

    Biggest thing I’ve noticed is the difference is locker rooms after this trade. Edmonton management and players say they gave up a good player. Minnesota mourns and cries.

  100. Bos8 says:

    HeavySig: I used to call that play the “Fogolin Special.” Maybe that is what Loweballini wants for the New Boys in the Bus?

    My favorite was Huddy. His release from the point was measured by sundial. Or, standing behind the net in his own end – Hammer it around the boards to the point man for a shot on net.

    Aah good times

  101. nathan says:

    The problem with using goals and shots is that:

    1) ignores massive amounts of data and
    2) is still dependent on circumstances outside of the players control.

    I’m not sold on the trade yet, but Strudwick has seen a fair number of on-ice events for both players and he’s convinced the deal could make sense for this roster:

    http://oilersnation.com/2012/2/28/good-bye-gibby

    “The addition of Schultz along with Smid and Sutton will provide the defensive end of things, which will allow Potter, Petry and Whitney to create offense. I like the trade. Brings balance to the back end and a steady veteran to smooth over the tougher minutes.”

  102. Bos8 says:

    “The addition of Schultz along with Smid and Sutton will provide the defensive end of things, which will allow Potter, Petry and Whitney to create offense. I like the trade. Brings balance to the back end and a steady veteran to smooth over the tougher minutes.”

    Boy, that Struds is now brilliant. I must have missed the memo.

  103. nathan says:

    “Boy, that Struds is now brilliant. I must have missed the memo”

    Yeah. He just played with one of the guys and against the other. Could not possibly have a point when the data has conclusively proved the trade is a bad idea. Missed the memo that proved that.

    I’m not convinced its’s a good trade, but the certainty that there is no case for it is amazing.

  104. Bos8 says:

    nathan: “Boy, that Struds is now brilliant. I must have missed the memo”Yeah. He just played with one of the guys and against the other. Could not possibly have a point when the data has conclusively proved the trade is a bad idea. Missed the memo that proved that. I’m not convinced its’s a good trade, but the certainty that there is no case for it is amazing.

    I think you misread my post. I’ve spent two days saying what Struds has now said.

    “The true measure of a person’s intelligence increases by how much they agree with you”

    I was basically poking fun at myself.

    Might a trifle convoluted but that’s my sense of humor. I also do bad puns – badder is gooder

  105. rickithebear says:

    HeavySig: In rickithebear world, that makes me a racist.

    Racist. no racist.
    But yoiu make me feel I would sucumb to diverse elements of fear, surprise, ruthless efficiency
    Know what i mean?

    How do you make a Wink?

  106. spoiler says:

    Showerhead: Hmmm. Show me?

    I believe I had a summary of the presser in yesterday’s thread and there are numerous summaries in the MSM and the Blogosphere since. Have at’er.

  107. nathan says:

    Bos8,

    Got it. Great minds think alike and fools seldom differ.

  108. Mr DeBakey says:

    Since we all agree that a good GOALie prevents Goals.

    I’ thought I’d quickly compare the ES Save % behind the marvellous Smid and the dearly departed Gilbert over the past 4 seasons. The theory being that Gilberts F-Ups created too many quality chances for the opposition, thus destroying his tenders save %:

    LADISLAVSMID - 898 - 919 - 908 - 915
    TOMGILBERT – 907 - 913 - 889 - 910

    There.
    Proved it.
    Three years in a row, the Save Percentage behind Gilbert was worse than behind Smid.

    Of course, until Gilbert carcilo’d his leg, his QC was higher too.
    But, no matter, muddying the pool.

  109. Bos8 says:

    Stole this from a baseball blog – Kudos to Trish of Lohud

    ————————
    It is the foolish fan who continues to bemoan that which he or she cannot control. (Buddha)

    Okay, Buddha didn’t say that, but he did say this: Do not dwell in the past, do not dream of the future, concentrate the mind on the present moment.

    It is the foolish fan who cannot see how much the present moment has to offer. (Buddha)

    Okay, so Buddha didn’t say that. But he should have!

  110. frenchfrog says:

    As least we can all agree the Canucks lost the Hodgson trade.

    inb4 DSF

  111. cabbiesmacker says:

    Bos8,

    Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it

    George Santayana, Reason in Common Sense, The Life of Reason, Vol.1

  112. cabbiesmacker says:

    frenchfrog:
    As least we can all agree the Canucks lost the Hodgson trade.

    inb4 DSF

    Don’t know if I’d agree to be honest. I like Gragnani a lot as an offensive D prospect and had hoped the Oilers would make a move for him. Kassian is going to make that team an even bigger pain in the ass to play against in fairly short order.

    Besides….Gillis doesn’t lose trades. He has both a gameplan and a clue. Also appears to know a lot more about the roster players around the league than our management does.

  113. godot10 says:

    I have always been a Gilbert booster.

    That said, Schultz has yet to play a game.

    1) He is a legitimate top 4 D. Lemaire used him as his top and his shutdown pairing with Burns.
    2) Gilbert has not missed games, but he has played a lot of games with back issues.
    3) Gilbert plays his best when paired with a competent defenseman. Gilbert plays less well when paired with an incompetent defenseman.
    4) The Oilers are going to be breaking in a lot of young, inexperienced defensemen over the next few years. Schultz might be a far better player to pair a young D, particularly with some offensive ability with. i.e. Smid-Petry, Whitney(if healthy) and a vet D to be obtained, and Schultz with (Teubert, Klefbom, Marincin, Murray, Reinhart, etc….). Schultz may be viewed as a better “finishing school”

  114. godot10 says:

    I think the Canucks did well in the Hodgson deal. Hodgson doesn’t fit well into the Canucks current window, with Sedin and Kesler.

    The Canucks obtained defensive depth (with Salo playing a key role, they need it), and a big loose cannon to help them match up against Boston, players who help now and who are still young.

    Schneider or Luongo will be used to replace Hodgson with a younger version of Hodgson when one gets traded in the summer.

  115. frenchfrog says:

    cabbiesmacker: Don’t know if I’d agree to be honest. I like Gragnani a lot as an offensive D prospect and had hoped the Oilers would make a move for him. Kassian is going to make that team an even bigger pain in the ass to play against in fairly short order.Besides….Gillis doesn’t lose trades. He has both a gameplan and a clue. Also appears to know a lot more about the roster players around the league than our management does.

    My problem with Kassian, is that people still refer to him like his scouting report from the draft. Buffalo fans have complained this year about him NOT using his size and bringing that element of toughness. For a win now, the timing of the deal is terrible. Hodgson is the best player in the deal. Canucks fans would have the best eye on Hodgson and I think it’s telling that only 25 percent of them on HF think it’s a good deal. I believe they let a great player go for potential. Not something you do on a Cup run.

  116. DSF says:

    frenchfrog:
    As least we can all agree the Canucks lost the Hodgson trade.

    inb4 DSF

    Haha.

    No they didn’t.

    Hodgson was stuck behind Sedin and Kesler and would never get top six minutes with the Canucks.

    With that in mind, Gillis traded from a position of strength to balance his team by acquiring someone who is big, reasonably fast, can score, hit like a truck and is a mean mofo. Think of Paajarvi with hands and a mean streak)

    That he also acquired Sami Pahlsson for the playoff run and Gragnani, a PP wizard in training, made for a pretty nice deadline for GMMG.

    All trades are a risk and this one is too but Gillis addressed a team need in a big way.

    I expect Hodgson will do very well in Buffalo where he will certainly get top 6 minutes but he wouldn’t have in Vancouver and, if I were a playoff opponent, I wouldn’t be looking forward to playing a line of Pahlsson, Hansen and Kassian.

    Murderers row.

    If Kassian lives up to his potential (top 6 winger), Vancouver will be tougher to play against for a very long time.

    Now, I’m sure the conventional wisdom among Oiler fans will be that Gillis got hosed but he didn’t get his team to the finals and perennial division winner by being an idiot.

    Important to remember that Gillis and Tambellini both took over teams that finished with 88 points in the standings and only one of them has been in the toilet since then.

  117. cabbiesmacker says:

    godot10:

    2) Gilbert has not missed games, but he has played a lot of games with back issues.

    And Schultz has had concussion issues.

  118. Lowetide says:

    Gillis killed the deadline imo. Maybe Hodgson makes him pay, but he’s done everything he can do give his group the best chance for Stanley. And it was innovative too. Kassian is one of a very few available who can not only stand in against the intimidator but create some shit of his own against the competition.

  119. DSF says:

    frenchfrog: My problem with Kassian, is that people still refer to him like his scouting report from the draft. Buffalo fans have complained this year about him NOT using his size and bringing that element of toughness. For a win now, the timing of the deal is terrible. Hodgson is the best player in the deal. Canucks fans would have the best eye on Hodgson and I think it’s telling that only 25 percent of them on HF think it’s a good deal. I believe they let a great player go for potential. Not something you do on a Cup run.

    Vancouver has 6 centres available for their playoff run.

    Sedin
    Kesler
    Malhtotra
    Pahlsson
    Lapierre
    Reinprecht

    Hodgson’s skill set wasn’t suited to 3rd/4th line minutes in the playoffs.

    They may miss his work on the 2nd unit PP, but not much else.

  120. cabbiesmacker says:

    DSF:

    That he also acquired Sami Pahlsson for the playoff run

    if I were a playoff opponent, I wouldn’t be looking forward to playing a line of Pahlsson, Hansen and Kassian.

    Murderers row.

    OK you were doing pretty well until these points. Pahlsson’s a stump.

    I’d still be mulling this

    SHAWN THORNTON GREGORY CAMPBELL DANIEL PAILLE
    BENOIT POULIOT CHRIS KELLY RICH PEVERLEY

    Your bottom 6 could still use a tweak or three.

    AND don’t forget the “L” factor.

    http://cheertheanthem.com/component/wordpress/2011/04/23/tims-bits-back-to-the-madhouse/

  121. "Steve Smith" says:

    rickithebear:How do you make a Wink?

    Open one of your eyes.

  122. cabbiesmacker says:

    DSF: Vancouver has 6 centres available for their playoff run.

    Sedin
    Kesler
    Malhtotra
    Pahlsson
    Lapierre
    Reinprecht

    Howcome I only see 3?

    After Manny I see a tree stump, a douche, and an injury waiting to happen that wouldn’t bolster my kids Midget AAA teams results. Cmon DSF.

    I’ll give credit where it’s due but those 3?

  123. rickithebear says:

    “Steve Smith”: Open one of your eyes.

    I have!

  124. DSF says:

    cabbiesmacker: Howcome I only see 3?

    After Manny I see a tree stump, a douche, and an injury waiting to happen that wouldn’t bolster my kids Midget AAA teams results.Cmon DSF.

    I’ll give credit where it’s due but those 3?

    It’s called depth my friend.

    You may call Pahlsson a stump but, in a playoff run, I’d take him over someone like Horcoff in a heartbeat.

    You may not like Lapierre but that’s hardly the basis for an informed hockey decision.

  125. godot10 says:

    cabbiesmacker: And Schultz has had concussion issues.

    Gilbert had a serious concussion in his rookie season.

  126. Bos8 says:

    DSF: >Now, I’m sure the conventional wisdom among Oiler fans will be that Gillis got hosed but he didn’t get his team to the finals and perennial division winner by being an idiot.Important to remember that Gillis and Tambellini both took over teams that finished with 88 points in the standings and only one of them has been in the toilet since then.

    Welcome to the preaching pulpit of patronizing pomposity.

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